1WTNT41 KNHC 171706 2TCDAT1 3 4Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number 1 5NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 61200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 7 8Satellite, radar, and surface data show that the area of low 9pressure near the Upper Texas coast has become better defined this 10morning. The associated deep convection has also become better 11organized, and winds from the Houston Doppler Radar support 12an initial intensity of 30 kt. Based on these data, advisories are 13being initiated on a tropical depression. The system has very 14little time left over water in which to strengthen, but given the 15recent increase in organization, the system is forecast to become a 16tropical storm before it moves inland. As a result, a Tropical 17Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the Upper Texas 18coast. Regardless of the intensity of the system, the primary 19threat associated is flooding rainfall that is expected over 20portions of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana over the next 21day or two. 22 23The initial motion estimate is 005/6 kt. The cyclone should move 24inland very soon, and a general northward motion around the western 25side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley should 26continue through tonight. The system is forecast to turn north- 27northwestward on Wednesday and that general motion is forecast to 28continue until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast follows 29the solution of the majority of the dynamical models. 30 31Key Messages: 32 331. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding 34along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and 35Galveston areas. 36 37FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 38 39INIT 17/1700Z 28.7N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 40 12H 18/0000Z 29.4N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 41 24H 18/1200Z 30.1N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 42 36H 19/0000Z 30.7N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 43 48H 19/1200Z 31.3N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 44 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED 45 46$$ 47Forecaster Brown 48 49 50 51------------=_1568739979-121860-2701 52Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 53Content-Disposition: inline 54Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 55 56= = = == = = 57