1WTNT41 KNHC 171706
2TCDAT1
3
4Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number   1
5NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
61200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
7
8Satellite, radar, and surface data show that the area of low
9pressure near the Upper Texas coast has become better defined this
10morning.  The associated deep convection has also become better
11organized, and winds from the Houston Doppler Radar support
12an initial intensity of 30 kt.  Based on these data, advisories are
13being initiated on a tropical depression.  The system has very
14little time left over water in which to strengthen, but given the
15recent increase in organization, the system is forecast to become a
16tropical storm before it moves inland.  As a result, a Tropical
17Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the Upper Texas
18coast.  Regardless of the intensity of the system, the primary
19threat associated is flooding rainfall that is expected over
20portions of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana over the next
21day or two.
22
23The initial motion estimate is 005/6 kt. The cyclone should move
24inland very soon, and a general northward motion around the western
25side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley should
26continue through tonight.  The system is forecast to turn north-
27northwestward on Wednesday and that general motion is forecast to
28continue until dissipation occurs.  The NHC track forecast follows
29the solution of the majority of the dynamical models.
30
31Key Messages:
32
331. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
34along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
35Galveston areas.
36
37FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
38
39INIT  17/1700Z 28.7N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
40 12H  18/0000Z 29.4N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
41 24H  18/1200Z 30.1N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
42 36H  19/0000Z 30.7N  95.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
43 48H  19/1200Z 31.3N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
44 72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
45
46$$
47Forecaster Brown
48
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