1WTNT41 KNHC 172033 2TCDAT1 3 4Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 2 5NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 6400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 7 8Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly 9intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas 10around 1800 UTC. A National Ocean Service observing site near 11Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to 1241 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb. A Weatherflow station 13at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust 14to 44 kt. The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent 15Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still 16offshore. 17 18Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of 19Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other 20recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007. 21Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant 22strengthening could occur. Now that the center is moving inland, 23gradual weakening is expected. It cannot be stressed enough, 24however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy 25rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread 26northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana 27during the next day or so. 28 29Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should 30continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the 31western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until 32dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The updated NHC track 33forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the 34tightly clustered track guidance. 35 36Key Messages: 37 381. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding 39along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and 40Galveston areas. 41 42FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 43 44INIT 17/2100Z 29.3N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 45 12H 18/0600Z 30.1N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 46 24H 18/1800Z 30.8N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 47 36H 19/0600Z 31.4N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48 48H 19/1800Z 32.1N 95.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 49 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED 50 51$$ 52Forecaster Brown 53 54 55 56------------=_1568752396-121860-2772 57Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 58Content-Disposition: inline 59Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 60 61= = = == = = 62WTNT41 KNHC 180248 63TCDAT1 64 65Tropical Depression Imelda Discussion Number 3 66NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 671000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 68 69The center of the tropical cyclone continues to move farther inland 70over southeast Texas, with a motion estimate of 360/5 kt. Earlier 71surface observations along the coast indicated that the intensity 72had dropped below tropical storm strength, so the Tropical Storm 73Warning was discontinued. 74 75Although it has weakened, slow-moving Imelda will remain a 76rainfall/flood threat for at least the next couple of days. 77 78This is the last NHC advisory on Imelda. Future information on this 79system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather 80Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header 81TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at 82http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 83 84 85Key Messages: 86 871. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding 88along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and 89Galveston areas. 90 91 92FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 93 94INIT 18/0300Z 29.8N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 95 12H 18/1200Z 30.5N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96 24H 19/0000Z 31.2N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 97 36H 19/1200Z 31.8N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 98 48H 20/0000Z 32.7N 95.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 99 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED 100 101$$ 102Forecaster Pasch 103 104 105 106------------=_1568774924-121860-2910 107Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 108Content-Disposition: inline 109Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 110 111= = = == = = 112