1WTNT41 KNHC 222044 2TCDAT1 3TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 5500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010 6 7STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR 8-85C...HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...AND 9THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. 10DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BOTH 2.5...35 11KT...AND THE MOST RECENT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7. 12THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. 13 14GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCH 15OF THE DAY...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. HOWEVER... 16RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK 17TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 18FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL 19RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE 20CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO 21SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5. THE 22NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 23DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT 24IT CONVERGES BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE 25HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST 26ADVISORY...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN IS EXTREMELY CLOSE TO 27OFCI. 28 29WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS 30CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE. 31SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 32SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR 33APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO 34SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY 353...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE 36DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 37FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY. 38 39FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 40 41INITIAL 22/2100Z 13.4N 35.1W 35 KT 42 12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.0N 36.6W 35 KT 43 24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.9N 39.2W 40 KT 44 36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 42.0W 50 KT 45 48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.3N 44.9W 60 KT 46 72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 70 KT 47 96HR VT 26/1800Z 23.0N 54.0W 75 KT 48120HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 57.0W 85 KT 49 50$$ 51FORECASTER BERG 52 53 54WTNT41 KNHC 230300 55TCDAT1 56TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 57NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 581100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010 59 60DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE...WHICH DEVELOPED AROUND 611900 UTC...HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS 62AS COLD AS -90 C. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS AT 2151 UTC SUGGESTS 63THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE 64OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY 65SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 663.0...AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. A 67RECENTLY ARRIVING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 35 TO 40 KT WINDS OVER THE 68WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS RAISING 69THE INITIAL INTENSITY. 70 71DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION 72ESTIMATE OF 315/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE 73CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE 74WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN 75FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST 76AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK 77FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS 78ADVISORY...NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 79 80EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR 81SO. OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL 82INTENSIFICATION AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY 83STRENGTHENING. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE INTENSITY 84GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS DANIELLE TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE 85NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 86 87FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 88 89INITIAL 23/0300Z 14.2N 35.9W 45 KT 90 12HR VT 23/1200Z 14.9N 37.6W 50 KT 91 24HR VT 24/0000Z 15.9N 40.3W 55 KT 92 36HR VT 24/1200Z 17.1N 43.3W 60 KT 93 48HR VT 25/0000Z 18.5N 46.2W 70 KT 94 72HR VT 26/0000Z 21.7N 50.8W 75 KT 95 96HR VT 27/0000Z 24.5N 54.5W 80 KT 96120HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 57.0W 85 KT 97 98$$ 99FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI 100 101 102WTNT41 KNHC 230833 103TCDAT1 104TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 105NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 106500 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010 107 108DANIELLE HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A CLASSIC BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD 109TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -85C DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 110AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 0351 AND 0541 UTC... 111RESPECTIVELY...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION 112CENTER LIES ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY... 113PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS THAN 114PREVIOUSLY NOTED. THE BURSTING PATTERN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 115SURFACE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT DANIELLE CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EASTERLY 116VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH BEFORE. DVORAK 117INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB... 118RESPECTIVELY...AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES ARE 3.4. USING A BLEND 119OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED 120CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT. 121 122THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A 123MOTION TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...300/12. 124GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL 125RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD KEEP DANIELLE ON A 126WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD 127SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE IS 128IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A BREAK 129IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE 130PRONOUNCED AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 131IN A FEW DAYS. THESE EVENTS SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN MORE 132NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE. TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY 133TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS 134PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND 135IS CLOSE TO...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 136 137THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING DANIELLE 138IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE 139BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A GENERALLY UNIFORM LAYER OF EASTERLY FLOW. 140SINCE THE STORM WILL BE OVER 27-28C WATER TEMPERATURES AND IN A 141LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...A PERIOD OF GREATER INTENSIFICATION IS 142FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS... 143HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT DANIELLE COULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE 144EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH 145A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL NHC 146WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 147STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 148 149FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 150 151INITIAL 23/0900Z 14.8N 37.1W 50 KT 152 12HR VT 23/1800Z 15.7N 39.1W 55 KT 153 24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.9N 42.0W 65 KT 154 36HR VT 24/1800Z 18.3N 44.9W 70 KT 155 48HR VT 25/0600Z 19.9N 47.5W 75 KT 156 72HR VT 26/0600Z 23.5N 51.5W 75 KT 157 96HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 54.5W 80 KT 158120HR VT 28/0600Z 29.0N 57.0W 85 KT 159 160$$ 161FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN 162 163 164WTNT41 KNHC 231438 165TCDAT1 166TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 167NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1681100 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010 169 170AT 1028 UTC...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT DANIELLE WAS 171STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE 172LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP 173CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING... 174AND CURVED BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE PAST FEW 175HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK 176FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. 177 178A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS 179A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS 180NOW 290/14. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO 181CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A BREAK IN THE 182SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 45W SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD 183THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE 184RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK THE WESTWARD 185MOVEMENT OF DANIELLE AND FORCE IT TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY 186DAY 5. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...AND 187LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NEEDED. IT SHOULD BE 188NOTED THAT THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 189CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. 190 191THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING 192OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE HELP OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND 193WARM OCEAN WATERS. AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS 194AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE 195GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO 196THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS BUT THEN VERY 197CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE RAPID 198INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS CURRENTLY NEAR 40 PERCENT...SO THERE IS 199SOME CHANCE THAT DANIELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER DURING 200THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. BY DAYS 3 201THROUGH 5...VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AS DANIELLE APPROACHES A 202LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SO FOR NOW THE 203INTENSITY IS HELD NEAR THE LOWER END OF CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH. THERE 204IS NOW A 1 IN 4 CHANCE...HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...THAT DANIELLE 205COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS BASED ON 206HISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY ERRORS. 207 208 209FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 210 211INITIAL 23/1500Z 15.1N 39.4W 55 KT 21212HR VT 24/0000Z 16.0N 41.5W 65 KT 21324HR VT 24/1200Z 17.3N 44.5W 75 KT 21436HR VT 25/0000Z 18.9N 47.2W 80 KT 21548HR VT 25/1200Z 20.8N 49.5W 85 KT 21672HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 53.5W 90 KT 21796HR VT 27/1200Z 27.0N 55.5W 90 KT 218120HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 57.0W 90 KT 219 220$$ 221FORECASTER BERG 222 223 224 225 226WTNT41 KNHC 231438 227TCDAT1 228TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 229NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 2301100 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010 231 232AT 1028 UTC...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT DANIELLE WAS 233STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE 234LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP 235CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING... 236AND CURVED BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE PAST FEW 237HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK 238FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. 239 240A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS 241A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS 242NOW 290/14. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO 243CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A BREAK IN THE 244SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 45W SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD 245THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE 246RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK THE WESTWARD 247MOVEMENT OF DANIELLE AND FORCE IT TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY 248DAY 5. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...AND 249LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NEEDED. IT SHOULD BE 250NOTED THAT THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 251CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. 252 253THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING 254OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE HELP OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND 255WARM OCEAN WATERS. AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS 256AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE 257GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO 258THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS BUT THEN VERY 259CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE RAPID 260INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS CURRENTLY NEAR 40 PERCENT...SO THERE IS 261SOME CHANCE THAT DANIELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER DURING 262THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. BY DAYS 3 263THROUGH 5...VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AS DANIELLE APPROACHES A 264LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SO FOR NOW THE 265INTENSITY IS HELD NEAR THE LOWER END OF CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH. THERE 266IS NOW A 1 IN 4 CHANCE...HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...THAT DANIELLE 267COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS BASED ON 268HISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY ERRORS. 269 270 271FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 272 273INITIAL 23/1500Z 15.1N 39.4W 55 KT 274 12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.0N 41.5W 65 KT 275 24HR VT 24/1200Z 17.3N 44.5W 75 KT 276 36HR VT 25/0000Z 18.9N 47.2W 80 KT 277 48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.8N 49.5W 85 KT 278 72HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 53.5W 90 KT 279 96HR VT 27/1200Z 27.0N 55.5W 90 KT 280120HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 57.0W 90 KT 281 282$$ 283FORECASTER BERG 284 285 286WTNT41 KNHC 232033 287TCDAT1 288HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 289NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 290500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010 291 292THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER 293THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM 294IS NOW RELAXING. A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT 295LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE 296SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION. DESPITE THAT 297STRUCTURE...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND 298SAB...AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS. THE 299CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID 300INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD 301CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL 302FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN 303LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48 304HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU 305SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND 306HWRF. 307 308DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 309290/15. A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE 310HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD 311THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS 312TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE 313PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL 314CONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE 315GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 316 317 318FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 319 320INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.4N 41.5W 65 KT 321 12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 43.6W 80 KT 322 24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.8N 46.2W 90 KT 323 36HR VT 25/0600Z 19.6N 48.8W 95 KT 324 48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.6N 51.3W 100 KT 325 72HR VT 26/1800Z 25.0N 55.0W 100 KT 326 96HR VT 27/1800Z 27.5N 57.0W 95 KT 327120HR VT 28/1800Z 30.5N 58.5W 95 KT 328 329$$ 330FORECASTER BERG 331 332 333WTNT41 KNHC 240237 334TCDAT1 335HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 336NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 3371100 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010 338 339DANIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE THIS EVENING. A 2148 UTC SSMIS 340OVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL 341TILT...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT ON 342GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MORE 343SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER AND CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE 344OVERCAST AND SPIRAL BANDS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80 C. DVORAK 345CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 4.0/65 346KT...RESPECTIVELY AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT 347THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE NEAR 4.5/77 KT. THE INITIAL 348INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 75 KT FOR THIS 349ADVISORY. 350 351THE HURRICANE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL 352STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN 35310 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A WARM OCEAN 354ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY...OR EVEN 355RAPID...INTENSIFICATION. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 356ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THAT WILL 357LIKELY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. 358 359DANIELLE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION 360ESTIMATE IS 285/17. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM 361EARLIER. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL 362ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 363AMPLIFIES NEAR THE AZORES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO 364MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 365THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER TROUGH 366THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THIS WILL 367RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE 368FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND 369LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. 370 371FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 372 373INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.6N 43.2W 75 KT 374 12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.7N 45.0W 90 KT 375 24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.3N 47.5W 100 KT 376 36HR VT 25/1200Z 20.1N 49.9W 100 KT 377 48HR VT 26/0000Z 22.2N 52.0W 100 KT 378 72HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 55.5W 95 KT 379 96HR VT 28/0000Z 28.0N 57.5W 95 KT 380120HR VT 29/0000Z 31.0N 59.0W 95 KT 381 382$$ 383FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 384 385 386WTNT41 KNHC 240834 387TCDAT1 388HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 389NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 390500 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010 391 392ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS NOT AS WELL 393ORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE 394INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE AT 77 AND 90 KT... 395RESPECTIVELY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN 396PULSATING FOR REASONS THAT ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD...BUT THE 397OVERALL TREND IS INDICATIVE OF A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION. UPPER- 398LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT 399IS LESS DEFINED TO THE WEST. BASED UPON THE HIGHER SATELLITE 400INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. 401 402AN EYE FEATURE THAT FORMED EARLIER IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...BUT A 0434 403UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER. THAT 404OVERPASS AND OTHER RECENT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY TO 405THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...280/17. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED 406TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 12 407HOURS OR SO BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE 408NORTHWEST WHEN IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL 409RIDGE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 45-50W. DYNAMICAL 410MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE 411PRONOUNCED BY 48 HOURS WHEN A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH 412AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE EVOLUTION OF THESE 413FEATURES SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO DECELERATE AND TURN NORTH- 414NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK 415FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LIES 416CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 417 418GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE REMAINING IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 419ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 42028-29C. THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED 421INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A 42235% CHANCE OF AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 423HOURS. BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY 424VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING 425SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HALT THE CURRENT 426INTENSIFICATION OR POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING. LATER IN THE 427PERIOD...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT REDUCTION IN 428SHEAR...BUT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES 429NOT SHOW RESTRENGTHENING IN 3-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED 430FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE 431DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT TIME. 432 433FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 434 435INITIAL 24/0900Z 15.9N 44.6W 85 KT 436 12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.9N 46.6W 95 KT 437 24HR VT 25/0600Z 18.6N 48.9W 105 KT 438 36HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 51.0W 100 KT 439 48HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 52.9W 100 KT 440 72HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 55.5W 95 KT 441 96HR VT 28/0600Z 28.0N 57.5W 95 KT 442120HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 59.0W 95 KT 443 444$$ 445FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN 446 447 448WTNT41 KNHC 241442 449TCDAT1 450HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 451NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 4521100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010 453 454THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED WITH A THUD. THE 455LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME EXPOSED BETWEEN A RAGGED 456CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO ITS EAST...AND A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND 457TO ITS WEST. ALL ALONG...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE ABOUT 0300 UTC 458SHOWED A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF 459THE CIRCULATION...AND AS A RESULT THE EYEWALL BECAME ERODED. DATA 460T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY AND ARE NOW AS LOW AS T3.9 FROM THE 461HURRICANE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AN EXPERIMENTAL FORM OF THE UW-CIMSS 462ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT AT THIS TIME... 463WHICH COULD STILL BE GENEROUS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY TO 464SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT OVER THE 465NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WELL DANIELLE WILL BE 466ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DRY AIR. ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED 467IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE INTENSITY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS 468HELD JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH TO MAINTAIN SOME SORT OF 469CONTINUITY...BUT THIS IS NOW ABOVE MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS. 470 471MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WITH 472AND A AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/17. THIS MOTION IS A 473LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LITTLE CHANGE IS 474REQUIRED IN THE FORECAST...AND DANIELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN 475TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 476THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. 477THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS 478FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION 479BUT THEN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER FORECASTS FOR DAYS 3 480THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL 481CONSENSUS TVCN AND STILL A LITTLE LEFT OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND 482HWRF...WHICH SEAMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED LEFT-OF-TRACK 483MOTION. 484 485 486FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 487 488INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.6N 46.5W 70 KT 489 12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 48.3W 75 KT 490 24HR VT 25/1200Z 19.1N 50.4W 80 KT 491 36HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 52.3W 85 KT 492 48HR VT 26/1200Z 22.8N 53.8W 90 KT 493 72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 56.5W 90 KT 494 96HR VT 28/1200Z 28.5N 58.5W 95 KT 495120HR VT 29/1200Z 32.0N 59.5W 95 KT 496 497$$ 498FORECASTER BERG 499 500 501WTNT41 KNHC 242040 502TCDAT1 503TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 504NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 505500 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010 506 507WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF UNEXPECTED WESTERLY SHEAR...DANIELLE HAS 508UNRAVELED DURING THE DAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS OCCASIONALLY 509BEEN EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF DEEP 510CONVECTION...AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY. 511FINAL-T AND CI ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE NOW NEAR 512T3.5/4.5 AND SUPPORT DOWNGRADING DANIELLE TO A 60-KT TROPICAL 513STORM. WITHOUT SUFFICIENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN THE CYCLONE 514ENVIRONMENT...OPERATIONALLY WE CAN NOT SPECULATE WITH CERTAINTY WHY 515DANIELLE WEAKENED TODAY. 516 517ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANIELLE RE-INTENSIFYING INTO A 518HURRICANE SOON...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 519THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE 520BECOMING AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...INDICATES GRADUAL 521STRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL 522FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE STRONGLY 523AFFECTED BY PERSISTENCE...BUT IT REMAINS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL 524AT THIS TIME. 525 526DANIELLE IS STILL MOVING QUICKLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/16. 527THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW 528DOWN SOON AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 529IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS HAVE 530SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...AND THE DAY 5 531OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITION ENDS UP BEING 2 DEGREES FARTHER WEST 532THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE 533RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL 534CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHARPER-TURNING ECMWF. 535 536 537FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 538 539INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.5N 48.2W 60 KT 540 12HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 49.9W 70 KT 541 24HR VT 25/1800Z 20.2N 51.9W 75 KT 542 36HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 53.8W 80 KT 543 48HR VT 26/1800Z 23.7N 55.3W 85 KT 544 72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 58.5W 90 KT 545 96HR VT 28/1800Z 29.5N 61.0W 95 KT 546120HR VT 29/1800Z 33.0N 61.5W 95 KT 547 548$$ 549FORECASTER BERG 550 551 552WTNT41 KNHC 250256 553TCDAT1 554HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 555NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 5561100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010 557 558A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT 559DANIELLE IS BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE 560FEATURE ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNELS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN 561INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM 562APPEARS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE 563CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE 564INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 65 KT. 565 566THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING. FOR THE 567NEXT DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE 568MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND EXPERIENCING MODERATE 569SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE WARM SSTS...THESE UPPER-LEVEL 570CONDITIONS USUALLY DO NOT FAVOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. 571HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FRACTURE THE TROUGH IN 36-48 572HR...WHICH CAUSES A DECREASE IN SHEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 573CLOSER TO DANIELLE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT 574RESTRENGTHENING. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE NHC 575INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 576GFDL/LGEM/SHIPS MODELS. 577 578THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 579ABOUT 16 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE THE 580STEERING FLOW FOR DANIELLE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS 581THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED 582TOMORROW...WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION AT A SLOWER SPEED CONTINUING 583FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG-TERM IS 584HOW MUCH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF 585THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT DANIELLE. 586THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH 587CAUSES A DELAYED NORTHWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL 588FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE INITIALLY...BUT ENDS UP SLOWER 589THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE 590THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING AT THE LONG-RANGE...SO THE 591FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. 592 593 594FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 595 596INITIAL 25/0300Z 18.2N 49.8W 65 KT 597 12HR VT 25/1200Z 19.4N 51.5W 70 KT 598 24HR VT 26/0000Z 21.3N 53.5W 70 KT 599 36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.0N 55.3W 75 KT 600 48HR VT 27/0000Z 24.4N 57.0W 80 KT 601 72HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 60.0W 90 KT 602 96HR VT 29/0000Z 30.0N 61.5W 90 KT 603120HR VT 30/0000Z 33.0N 61.5W 85 KT 604 605$$ 606FORECASTER BLAKE 607 608 609WTNT41 KNHC 250319 610TCDAT1 611HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 612NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 6131100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010 614 615A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT 616DANIELLE IS BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE 617FEATURE ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNELS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN 618INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM 619APPEARS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE 620CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE 621INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 65 KT. 622 623THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING. FOR THE 624NEXT DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE 625MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND EXPERIENCING MODERATE 626SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE WARM SSTS...THESE UPPER-LEVEL 627CONDITIONS USUALLY DO NOT FAVOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. 628HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FRACTURE THE TROUGH IN 36-48 629HR...WHICH CAUSES A DECREASE IN SHEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 630CLOSER TO DANIELLE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT 631RESTRENGTHENING. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE NHC 632INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 633GFDL/LGEM/SHIPS MODELS. 634 635THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 636ABOUT 16 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE THE 637STEERING FLOW FOR DANIELLE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS 638THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED 639TOMORROW...WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION AT A SLOWER SPEED CONTINUING 640FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG-TERM IS 641HOW MUCH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF 642THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT DANIELLE. 643THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH 644CAUSES A DELAYED NORTHWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL 645FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE INITIALLY...BUT ENDS UP SLOWER 646THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE 647THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING AT THE LONG-RANGE...SO THE 648FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. 649 650 651FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 652 653INITIAL 25/0300Z 18.2N 49.8W 65 KT 654 12HR VT 25/1200Z 19.4N 51.5W 70 KT 655 24HR VT 26/0000Z 21.3N 53.5W 70 KT 656 36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.0N 55.3W 75 KT 657 48HR VT 27/0000Z 24.4N 57.0W 80 KT 658 72HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 60.0W 90 KT 659 96HR VT 29/0000Z 30.0N 61.5W 90 KT 660120HR VT 30/0000Z 33.0N 61.5W 85 KT 661 662$$ 663FORECASTER BLAKE 664 665 666WTNT41 KNHC 250328 667TCDAT1 668HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 669NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 6701100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010 671 672A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT 673DANIELLE IS BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE 674FEATURE ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNELS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN 675INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM 676APPEARS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE 677CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE 678INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 65 KT. 679 680THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING. FOR THE 681NEXT DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE 682MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND EXPERIENCING MODERATE 683SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE WARM SSTS...THESE UPPER-LEVEL 684CONDITIONS USUALLY DO NOT FAVOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. 685HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FRACTURE THE TROUGH IN 36-48 686HR...WHICH CAUSES A DECREASE IN SHEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 687CLOSER TO DANIELLE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT 688RESTRENGTHENING. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE NHC 689INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 690GFDL/LGEM/SHIPS MODELS. 691 692THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 693ABOUT 16 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE THE 694STEERING FLOW FOR DANIELLE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS 695THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED 696TOMORROW...WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION AT A SLOWER SPEED CONTINUING 697FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG-TERM IS 698HOW MUCH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF 699THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT DANIELLE. 700THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH 701CAUSES A DELAYED NORTHWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL 702FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE INITIALLY...BUT ENDS UP SLOWER 703THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE 704THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING AT THE LONG-RANGE...SO THE 705FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. 706 707 708FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 709 710INITIAL 25/0300Z 18.2N 49.8W 65 KT 711 12HR VT 25/1200Z 19.4N 51.5W 70 KT 712 24HR VT 26/0000Z 21.3N 53.5W 70 KT 713 36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.0N 55.3W 75 KT 714 48HR VT 27/0000Z 24.4N 57.0W 80 KT 715 72HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 60.0W 90 KT 716 96HR VT 29/0000Z 30.0N 61.5W 90 KT 717120HR VT 30/0000Z 33.0N 61.5W 85 KT 718 719$$ 720FORECASTER BLAKE 721 722 723WTNT41 KNHC 250838 724TCDAT1 725HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 726NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 727500 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010 728 729ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH 730BETTER ORGANIZED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AN AMSR-E PASS FROM 7310516 UTC SUGGESTS AN EYE WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE 732CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 733BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TO THE NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND 734OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE 735ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE 736NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IMPARTING MODERATE 737WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON DANIELLE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE 738INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER 739THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO 740WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY. BOTH OF 741THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR 742STRENGTHENING. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL 743GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR SO THE HURRICANE 744WILL PROBABLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL 745INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. 746 747THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE INITIAL 748MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 300/15. A TURN TOWARD THE 749NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY SOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN 750THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL. A SHORT WAVE 751MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE 752HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD TEMPORARILY HALT A 753FURTHER TURN TO THE RIGHT...UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST. 754LATER ON...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS DANIELLE MOVES 755AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A 756TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK 757FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT 758SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER... 759SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND 760IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE 761INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. 762 763FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 764 765INITIAL 25/0900Z 18.8N 51.0W 75 KT 766 12HR VT 25/1800Z 20.1N 52.7W 70 KT 767 24HR VT 26/0600Z 21.8N 54.5W 70 KT 768 36HR VT 26/1800Z 23.3N 56.3W 75 KT 769 48HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 58.0W 80 KT 770 72HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 61.0W 90 KT 771 96HR VT 29/0600Z 30.0N 62.0W 95 KT 772120HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W 85 KT 773 774$$ 775FORECASTER PASCH 776 777 778WTNT41 KNHC 250930 779TCDAT1 780HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15...CORRECTED 781NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 782500 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010 783 784CORRECTED 70 KT TO 75 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH 785 786ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH 787BETTER ORGANIZED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AN AMSR-E PASS FROM 7880516 UTC SUGGESTS AN EYE WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE 789CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 790BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TO THE NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND 791OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE 792ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE 793NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IMPARTING MODERATE 794WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON DANIELLE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE 795INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER 796THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO 797WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY. BOTH OF 798THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR 799STRENGTHENING. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL 800GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR SO THE HURRICANE 801WILL PROBABLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL 802INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. 803 804THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE INITIAL 805MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 300/15. A TURN TOWARD THE 806NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY SOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN 807THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL. A SHORT WAVE 808MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE 809HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD TEMPORARILY HALT A 810FURTHER TURN TO THE RIGHT...UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST. 811LATER ON...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS DANIELLE MOVES 812AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A 813TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK 814FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT 815SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER... 816SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND 817IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE 818INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. 819 820FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 821 822INITIAL 25/0900Z 18.8N 51.0W 75 KT 823 12HR VT 25/1800Z 20.1N 52.7W 70 KT 824 24HR VT 26/0600Z 21.8N 54.5W 70 KT 825 36HR VT 26/1800Z 23.3N 56.3W 75 KT 826 48HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 58.0W 80 KT 827 72HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 61.0W 90 KT 828 96HR VT 29/0600Z 30.0N 62.0W 95 KT 829120HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W 85 KT 830 831$$ 832FORECASTER PASCH 833 834 835WTNT41 KNHC 251441 836TCDAT1 837HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 838NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 8391100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010 840 841DANIELLE HAS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH 842CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 843THE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER WITH NO 844EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 845A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE CAUSING 15-20 KT OF 846WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THIS HAS LIKELY AFFECTED THE 847CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT 848FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL 849INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE 850CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED 851ELSEWHERE. 852 853THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15. DANIELLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST 854SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH 855SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH 856SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. AFTER 857THAT...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS 858BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 859EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD DURING 860THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW DANIELLE MAY INTERACT WITH A 861WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL RIDGING 862MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE MOST 863RIDGING...AND IN RESPONSE TURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD. THE 864ECWMF SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH AND LESS RIDGING...AND IN CONSEQUENCE 865TURNS THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR. THE OTHER MODELS ARE 866IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS 867FORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE 868MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 869FORECAST. 870 871DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL 872TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN 873THE SHEAR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 24-72 874HR PERIOD...WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECASTING DANIELLE TO BECOME A 875MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE... 876AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR A 95 KT PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS 877CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL 878MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE 879SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY 880FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED 881BY WEAKENING. 882 883FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 884 885INITIAL 25/1500Z 19.6N 52.3W 75 KT 886 12HR VT 26/0000Z 20.8N 53.9W 75 KT 887 24HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 55.7W 80 KT 888 36HR VT 27/0000Z 23.7N 57.4W 80 KT 889 48HR VT 27/1200Z 24.9N 59.0W 85 KT 890 72HR VT 28/1200Z 27.5N 61.5W 95 KT 891 96HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 62.0W 95 KT 892120HR VT 30/1200Z 34.0N 62.0W 85 KT 893 894$$ 895FORECASTER BEVEN 896 897 898WTNT41 KNHC 252030 899TCDAT1 900HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 901NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 902500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010 903 904DANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER 905WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C...AND A FAINT EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN SEEN 906IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THIS 907IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ANALYSES 908FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT DANIELLE IS 909STILL AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND 910SHEAR...AND SEVERAL ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN JUST OUTSIDE THE 911CENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. 912 913THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 914HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO 915ITS NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/15. FOR THE NEXT 91648-72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW 917AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WHICH 918SHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN 919FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO A 920WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER 921THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING 922THIS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE 923CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASED. 924THE NOGAPS... HWRF...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST A 925NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR AND ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE 926GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND THE LBAR SHOW A QUICK RECURAVTURE 927TO THE NORTHEAST AND ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE 928OTHER DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST A MEANDERING 929NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE 72-120 HR FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS 930SCENARIO. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE 931RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48-72 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE 932LEFT OF IT THEREAFTER. 933 934DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL 935TROUGH IN 12-18 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN 936THE SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 937STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR DANIELLE DURING THE 24-72 HR 938TIME FRAME...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING CONSISTENTLY STRONGER SHEAR 939THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS 940THE LIGHTER-SHEAR SCENARIO AND CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KT 941IN 72 HR. THIS IS AGAIN BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/GFDN AND 942THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SHIPS/LGEM. AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL 943MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE 944SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY 945FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED 946BY WEAKENING. 947 948FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 949 950INITIAL 25/2100Z 21.2N 53.1W 75 KT 951 12HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 54.5W 75 KT 952 24HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 56.4W 80 KT 953 36HR VT 27/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W 85 KT 954 48HR VT 27/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W 90 KT 955 72HR VT 28/1800Z 29.0N 62.5W 95 KT 956 96HR VT 29/1800Z 32.0N 62.5W 95 KT 957120HR VT 30/1800Z 35.0N 62.5W 85 KT 958 959$$ 960FORECASTER BEVEN 961 962 963WTNT41 KNHC 260240 964TCDAT1 965HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 966NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 9671100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010 968 969SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED 970DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EXTENDS 971AROUND THE HURRICANE...AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME 972MORE CIRCULAR WITH SIGNS OF A RAGGED EYE. MICROWAVE PASSES FROM 9732000-2200 UTC CONFIRM THIS TREND AND SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN 974EYEWALL THAT IS MOSTLY CLOSED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 97585 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. THE SIZE OF 976THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING ON SATELLITE...AND WIND 977ANALYSES FROM CSU/CIRA ALSO SHOW THIS GROWTH. BASED ON THE ABOVE 978DATA...THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED. 979 980IT IS A LITTLE SURPRISING THAT THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING 981AS WIND SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF 982SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE BY LATE 983TOMORROW AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DANIELLE. 984THIS IS A COMMON SYNOPTIC SITUATION THAT SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION 985AND NOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE DANIELLE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE 986STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE HURRICANE 987SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER AND AN INCREASE 988IN SHEAR. THIS SCENARIO IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND 989THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. 990 991THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 320/15 DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND 992EVEN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT RECENTLY. A LARGE TROUGH TO THE 993NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN CAUSING IT TO MOVE A 994LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST PATH...BUT THE TROUGH IS 995RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM DANIELLE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RIDGE TO 996REBUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE 997TRACK BY TOMORROW NIGHT. IN A FEW DAYS...A TURN TO THE NORTH IS 998ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL 999ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE 1000REMAINS DIVERGENT ON WHETHER THE HURRICANE WILL SIMPLY RECURVE OUT 1001TO SEA WITH THAT TROUGH...OR WHETHER IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AND 1002RESUME A SLOWER MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THE MOST RELIABLE 1003MODELS ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE 1004OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THAT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE 1005ENVELOPE...SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. 1006 1007 1008FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1009 1010INITIAL 26/0300Z 22.4N 54.1W 85 KT 1011 12HR VT 26/1200Z 23.7N 55.6W 90 KT 1012 24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.0N 57.4W 95 KT 1013 36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.1N 59.3W 100 KT 1014 48HR VT 28/0000Z 27.5N 60.8W 100 KT 1015 72HR VT 29/0000Z 30.3N 62.3W 100 KT 1016 96HR VT 30/0000Z 33.5N 62.0W 90 KT 1017120HR VT 31/0000Z 37.0N 61.5W 80 KT 1018 1019$$ 1020FORECASTER BLAKE 1021 1022 1023WTNT41 KNHC 260856 1024TCDAT1 1025HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 1026NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1027500 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010 1028 1029AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE 1030PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND THE EYE 1031HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING IN COVERAGE. BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 10325.0 FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT FOR THIS 1033ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS EXCELLENT EXCEPT TO THE 1034SOUTHWEST...AS THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 1035SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT ACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM 1036UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW 1037FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW DANIELLE TO 1038INTENSIFY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 103972 HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE 1040TROUGH ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE 1041INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND IS NOW A LITTLE 1042HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO 1043THOSE MODELS BEYOND THAT TIME. 1044 1045THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/14...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE 1046PREVIOUS FORECAST. DURING THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE 1047IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. OVER THE 1048NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DANIELLE WILL BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD TO THE 1049SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN 30N AND 35N. 1050AFTER THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE 1051MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. SOME DIFFERENCES 1052REMAIN IN THE DETAILS OF HOW QUICKLY DANIELLE TURNS NORTHWARD...AND 1053IF AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE 1054PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT 1055FOR THIS CYCLE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET FARTHEST EAST AND THE GFS 1056AND NOGAPS FARTHEST WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED 1057A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL 1058POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN 1059ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND FASTER TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT 1060IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. 1061 1062FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1063 1064INITIAL 26/0900Z 23.4N 54.9W 90 KT 1065 12HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 56.3W 95 KT 1066 24HR VT 27/0600Z 25.8N 58.1W 100 KT 1067 36HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 59.9W 100 KT 1068 48HR VT 28/0600Z 28.3N 61.1W 105 KT 1069 72HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 61.5W 100 KT 1070 96HR VT 30/0600Z 35.5N 60.5W 85 KT 1071120HR VT 31/0600Z 38.0N 59.5W 75 KT 1072 1073$$ 1074FORECASTER BRENNAN 1075 1076 1077WTNT41 KNHC 261440 1078TCDAT1 1079HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 1080NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 10811100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010 1082 1083DANIELLE HAS GONE THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANGES IN ITS CONVECTIVE 1084STRUCTURE. THE EYE THAT WAS APPARENT FROM 05-07Z DISAPPEARED AT 1085ABOUT 10Z...ACCOMPANIED BY AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION. 1086SINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS RE-APPEARED...EMBEDDED IN A RAGGED CENTRAL 1087DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB 1088AND SAB...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THIS MAY 1089BE SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS. 1090 1091THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/13. IN THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST 1092PERIOD...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BY A 1093LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE 1094HURRICANE. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING 1095THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES 1096IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE 1097NORTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR EASTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE 1098PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE 1099INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR. 1100THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THIS 1101PERIOD...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED. THE NEW 1102FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE 1103FIRST 48 HR...AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE 1104FROM 72-120 HR. ADDITIONAL EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST 1105TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON IF THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE 1106GUIDANCE CONTINUE. 1107 1108ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT 1109DANIELLE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND 1110SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR 1111ENVIRONMENT FOR 48 HR OR SO BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SHEAR 1112ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE 1113FORECAST STRENGTHENING FOR 24-48 HR AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST 1114FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KT IN 24 HR. 1115AFTER 48 HR...INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE 1116TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. 1117 1118 1119FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1120 1121INITIAL 26/1500Z 24.4N 55.9W 90 KT 1122 12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.3N 57.3W 95 KT 1123 24HR VT 27/1200Z 26.5N 59.1W 100 KT 1124 36HR VT 28/0000Z 27.8N 60.4W 100 KT 1125 48HR VT 28/1200Z 29.3N 61.2W 100 KT 1126 72HR VT 29/1200Z 33.0N 60.5W 95 KT 1127 96HR VT 30/1200Z 36.5N 58.5W 85 KT 1128120HR VT 31/1200Z 39.0N 55.0W 70 KT 1129 1130$$ 1131FORECASTER BEVEN 1132 1133 1134WTNT41 KNHC 262035 1135TCDAT1 1136HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 1137NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1138500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010 1139 1140SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT DANIELLE HAS 1141DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -75C IN 1142THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 114390 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SINCE THAT TIME THE SATELLITE 1144APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS IMPROVED. THUS...THE INITIAL 1145INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THE CIRRUS IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL 1146DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH. 1147 1148THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13. FOR THE NEXT 36 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD 1149BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING 1150TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...A LARGE 1151MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED 1152STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANIELLE TO 1153RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS...THE TRACK 1154MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THOSE 1155EXCEPTIONS ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...WHICH FORECAST DANIELLE TO 1156MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN STALL NORTH OF BERMUDA. THE NEW TRACK 1157FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR DANIELLE 1158TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW 1159TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE 1160DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE 1161NEXT ADVISORY. 1162 1163ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT 1164DANIELLE IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND 1165SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR 1166ENVIRONMENT FOR 36-48 HR BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SHEAR 1167ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE 1168FORECAST STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR OR SO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST 1169FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KT IN 24 HR. 1170AFTER 48 HR...INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE 1171TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. EXTRATROPICAL 1172TRANSITION MAY BE UNDERWAY BY 120 HR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE 1173COMPLETED AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 1174 1175FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1176 1177INITIAL 26/2100Z 25.2N 57.0W 95 KT 1178 12HR VT 27/0600Z 26.0N 58.3W 95 KT 1179 24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.3N 60.0W 100 KT 1180 36HR VT 28/0600Z 28.6N 61.1W 105 KT 1181 48HR VT 28/1800Z 30.2N 61.2W 105 KT 1182 72HR VT 29/1800Z 34.0N 59.5W 95 KT 1183 96HR VT 30/1800Z 37.5N 56.5W 80 KT 1184120HR VT 31/1800Z 39.5N 51.0W 65 KT 1185 1186$$ 1187FORECASTER BEVEN 1188 1189 1190WTNT41 KNHC 270235 1191TCDAT1 1192HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 1193NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 11941100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010 1195 1196RECENT INFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS 1197CONTRACTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN EYEWALL 1198CONVECTION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 0000Z WERE 90...90... 1199AND 102 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. ALTHOUGH THE 1200EYEWALL CONTRACTION IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING 1201SYSTEM...IT IS PREFERABLE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES 1202AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL CONSERVATIVELY REMAIN 95 KT. 1203DANIELLE HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS LEFT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 1204LIGHT-TO- MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM WATER. AFTER THAT TIME... 1205INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE 1206TROUGH IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 1207CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE SHIPS MODEL. 1208 1209DANIELLE HAS SLOWED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL 1210MOTION IS 315/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY 1211OR SO AS RIDGING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. 1212THEREAFTER... THIS RIDGE ERODES AWAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING 1213MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT 1214THAT DANIELLE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THAT TROUGH AND RECURVED OUT TO 1215SEA. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE 1216PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON...THEN IS MUCH FASTER BY THE END OF THE 1217FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO NOW BECOMING VERY 1218LIKELY. THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE 1219DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED 1220ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. 1221 1222FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1223 1224INITIAL 27/0300Z 25.8N 57.6W 95 KT 1225 12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.7N 59.0W 100 KT 1226 24HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 60.4W 105 KT 1227 36HR VT 28/1200Z 29.6N 60.9W 105 KT 1228 48HR VT 29/0000Z 31.4N 60.3W 100 KT 1229 72HR VT 30/0000Z 35.5N 56.5W 90 KT 1230 96HR VT 31/0000Z 38.5N 50.5W 75 KT 1231120HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 42.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1232 1233$$ 1234FORECASTER BLAKE 1235 1236 1237WTNT41 KNHC 270541 1238TCDAT1 1239HURRICANE DANIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 1240NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1241200 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 1242 1243RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS 1244CONTRACTED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT...AND IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A RING 1245OF TOPS COLDER THAN -60C. A SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB 1246AT 0415 UTC YIELDED A DATA-T NUMBER OF 6.0/115 KT. BASED ON A 1247BLEND OF THIS ESTIMATE AND AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES OF 5.5/102 1248KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT. THE INTENSITY 1249FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...SHOWING A PEAK 1250OF 115 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY 1251FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 1252 1253THE TRACK AND WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE UNCHANGED. 1254 1255FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1256 1257INITIAL 27/0600Z 26.2N 58.1W 105 KT 1258 12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.7N 59.0W 110 KT 1259 24HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 60.4W 115 KT 1260 36HR VT 28/1200Z 29.6N 60.9W 115 KT 1261 48HR VT 29/0000Z 31.4N 60.3W 110 KT 1262 72HR VT 30/0000Z 35.5N 56.5W 90 KT 1263 96HR VT 31/0000Z 38.5N 50.5W 75 KT 1264120HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 42.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1265 1266$$ 1267FORECASTER BRENNAN 1268 1269 1270WTNT41 KNHC 270848 1271TCDAT1 1272HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 1273NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1274500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 1275 1276DANIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...WITH INFRARED 1277IMAGERY SHOWING A DISTINCT WARM EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY 1278COLD CLOUD TOPS. BASED ON THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CURRENT ADT 1279VALUES AROUND 6.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT. LOW 1280SHEAR CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING 1281OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN 1282ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SHOW A PEAK AT 120 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN 1283BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO 1284INCREASE AROUND 36 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO 1285BEGIN AROUND THAT TIME. A FURTHER INCREASE IN SHEAR COMBINED WITH 1286COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN MORE 1287SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING BY DAYS 3 AND 4. BY DAY 5...BOTH THE GFS AND 1288ECMWF SHOW DANIELLE MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE 1289BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 1290 1291THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10. ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL 1292GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN 1293NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE 1294TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AFTER 72 1295HOURS...DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 1296NORTH ATLANTIC AS THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. 1297ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 1298HOURS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...THE NEW FORECAST IS MUCH FASTER THAN 1299THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. 1300 1301FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1302 1303INITIAL 27/0900Z 26.5N 58.7W 115 KT 1304 12HR VT 27/1800Z 27.5N 60.0W 115 KT 1305 24HR VT 28/0600Z 28.9N 60.9W 120 KT 1306 36HR VT 28/1800Z 30.6N 60.7W 115 KT 1307 48HR VT 29/0600Z 32.9N 59.2W 105 KT 1308 72HR VT 30/0600Z 37.5N 54.0W 90 KT 1309 96HR VT 31/0600Z 40.0N 47.0W 70 KT 1310120HR VT 01/0600Z 41.5N 31.5W 65 KT...POST-TROPICAL 1311 1312$$ 1313FORECASTER BRENNAN 1314 1315 1316WTNT41 KNHC 271451 1317TCDAT1 1318HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 1319NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 13201100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 1321 1322THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF DANIELLE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE 1323LAST ADVISORY. THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT 1324AND EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. CLOUD TOPS 1325HAVE STARTED TO COOL AND THE COLDEST CLOUD RING NOW ENCIRCLES THE 1326EYE ABOUT 75 PERCENT. THE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM 1327TAFB WAS T6.0/115 KT. ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE T5.9/114 KT 1328AND AN ODT OF T6.1/117 KT FROM NHC. A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY 1329ESTIMATES SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT FOR THIS 1330ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE 1331DANIELLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF 1332THE INTENSITY. 1333 1334THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10. DANIELLE HAS MADE A FEW 1335BRIEF WESTWARD WOBBLES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL THE 1336MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST 1337THROUGH 36 HOURS MERELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT WESTWARD POSITION 1338AT 12Z. THE GUIDANCE MODELS REMAIN VERY TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 72 1339HOURS AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH DANIELLE BEGINNING RECURVATURE TO THE 1340NORTHEAST BY 24-36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ROUNDS THE WESTERN 1341PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 30N 1342LATITUDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF DANIELLE ON THE EAST 1343SIDE THAT IS CONVERGING INTO A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS 1344NORTHEAST COULD BUILD THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 134524 HOURS. THE RESULT WOULD BE A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND SLOWER 1346RECURVATURE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS 1347STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. AFTER 1348RECURVATURE OCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE 1349NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE 1350NORTHEAST AND THEN CAPTURE THE SYSTEM AT HIGHER LATITUDES AND TURN 1351IT MORE POLEWARD AFTER 96 HOURS AS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW 1352PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE 1353PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER 1354AND MORE POLEWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 1355CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. 1356 1357DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR 1358OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. 1359OUTFLOW REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND THE IS BEING ENHANCED TO THE 1360NORTH AND EAST AS THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 1361LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF DANIELLE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE 1362UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...DECREASING SHEAR...AND SSTS OF 29C... 1363CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR 1364DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY 1365VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE U.S. EAST COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 1366INCREASE TO 25-30 KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SHEAR AND 1367DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. IN THE 136896-120 TIME PERIOD...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A 1369POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH 1370ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE 1371SHIPS-GFDL-HWRF INTENSITY MODELS. 1372 1373FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1374 1375INITIAL 27/1500Z 26.9N 59.8W 115 KT 1376 12HR VT 28/0000Z 27.9N 60.8W 115 KT 1377 24HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 61.2W 115 KT 1378 36HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 60.3W 110 KT 1379 48HR VT 29/1200Z 34.3N 57.6W 95 KT 1380 72HR VT 30/1200Z 38.0N 52.0W 80 KT 1381 96HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 43.0W 65 KT 1382120HR VT 01/1200Z 46.0N 28.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1383 1384$$ 1385FORECASTER STEWART 1386 1387 1388WTNT41 KNHC 272043 1389TCDAT1 1390HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 1391NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1392500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 1393 1394THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF DANIELLE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE 1395DURING THE DAY AND THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS VERY 1396DISTINCT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND 1397CONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. AN AIR 1398FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED DANIELLE EARLIER 1399THIS AFTERNOON AND FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 942 MB AND MAXIMUM 1400700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 119 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 107 KT 1401SURFACE WINDS. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE ONLY 101 KT...HOWEVER. 1402SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE A CONSENSUS 1403T6.0/115 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE T6.4/125 KT... AND HAVE 1404BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE 1405INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR 1406THIS ADVISORY. 1407 1408THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE 1409REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 48-72 HOURS...AND IS STILL 1410INDICATING SHARP RECURVATURE BY 24 HOURS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL 1411RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 29N-30N LATITUDE. AFTER RECURVATURE 1412OCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD 1413OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION IS 1414FORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR 1415EAST-NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AT HIGHER 1416LATITUDES BY 96 HOURS...AND THEN TURN IT SHARPLY POLEWARD BY 120 1417HOURS AS A STRONG AND DEEP EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL 1418FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 96 1419HOURS...AND THEN A MORE POLEWARD AT DAY 5...WHICH REMAINS 1420CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC. 1421 1422DANIELLE MAY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE 1423HURRICANE MOVES INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR AND OVER 29C 1424SSTS. BY 36 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL 1425SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH 1426DECREASING SSTS TO INITIATE STEADY WEAKENING. AROUND 96 HOURS OR 1427SO...DANIELLE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES 1428WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 1429HOURS AS A VERY LARGE 60-KT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH 1430ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS 1431INTENSITY MODELS. 1432 1433ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST 1434OF BERMUDA...THE LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD ON THE WEST SIDE OF 1435THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO 1436BERMUDA ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS 1437BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT ISLAND. 1438 1439FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1440 1441INITIAL 27/2100Z 27.3N 60.3W 115 KT 1442 12HR VT 28/0600Z 28.6N 61.0W 120 KT 1443 24HR VT 28/1800Z 30.5N 60.8W 110 KT 1444 36HR VT 29/0600Z 32.8N 59.0W 100 KT 1445 48HR VT 29/1800Z 35.1N 56.3W 85 KT 1446 72HR VT 30/1800Z 38.4N 49.7W 75 KT 1447 96HR VT 31/1800Z 41.8N 39.1W 65 KT 1448120HR VT 01/1800Z 50.0N 28.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1449 1450$$ 1451FORECASTER STEWART 1452 1453 1454WTNT41 KNHC 280245 1455TCDAT1 1456HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 1457NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 14581100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 1459 1460CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANIELLE 1461HAS STARTED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 1462HOURS...WITH A 60 NM WIDE OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AROUND THE 15-20 NM 1463WIDE INNER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 115 KT FOR THIS 1464ADVISORY BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THIS 1465COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. AN AIR 1466FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE 1467DANIELLE. THE HURRICANE REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR 1468ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL 1469DIRECTIONS. 1470 1471THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE 1472INITIAL MOTION NOW 335/8. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 1473THAT DANIELLE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 1474HOURS AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER. THERE IS SOME 1475SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE SPEED OF MOTION DURING EXTRATROPICAL 1476TRANSITION...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING A FASTER 1477MOTION THAN THE EUROPEAN AND THE UKMET. THE TRACK FORECAST SPLITS 1478THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE EXTREMES. 1479 1480IT IS UNLIKELY THAT DANIELLE WILL HAVE TIME TO COMPLETE THE EYEWALL 1481REPLACEMENT CYCLE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS DECREASING SEA SURFACE 1482TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR IN 24 HR OR SO. THE NEW 1483INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR 12 HR...WITH 1484STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN 1485AT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 120 HR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS 1486FORECAST DANIELLE TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH TRANSITION... 1487AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 1488 1489FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1490 1491INITIAL 28/0300Z 28.1N 60.6W 115 KT 1492 12HR VT 28/1200Z 29.2N 60.7W 115 KT 1493 24HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 59.4W 110 KT 1494 36HR VT 29/1200Z 34.2N 57.1W 100 KT 1495 48HR VT 30/0000Z 36.8N 53.9W 85 KT 1496 72HR VT 31/0000Z 40.0N 46.5W 70 KT 1497 96HR VT 01/0000Z 43.0N 37.5W 65 KT 1498120HR VT 02/0000Z 51.5N 28.5W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1499 1500$$ 1501FORECASTER BEVEN 1502 1503 1504WTNT41 KNHC 280850 1505TCDAT1 1506HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 1507NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1508500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 1509 1510DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 1511THAT DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF AN EYEWALL 1512REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH 1513RADII OF 20 AND 60 NM AROUND 0345 UTC...AND SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE 1514IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAD CONTINUED TO ERODE. THE 1515AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT AND A 1516CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY 1517IS DECREASED TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL 1518CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE WILL 1519NOT LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RESTRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE 1520EYEWALL CYCLE COMPLETES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE 1521CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED 1522BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE 1523BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...DANIELLE 1524WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL 1525CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS 1526INDICATED DURING THE TRANSITION PROCESS. 1527 1528THE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS 1529ESTIMATES...AND SHOWED THAT DANIELLE HAS SLOWED A LITTLE. THE 1530INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345/8. THE TRACK 1531GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS 1532DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT 1533INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE 1534OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL SLOW 1535TEMPORARILY FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE FIRST UPPER-TROUGH LIFTS 1536OUT...AND THEN ACCELERATE AGAIN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS 1537ANOTHER TROUGH CAPTURES THE CYCLONE AND THEN PULLS IT SHARPLY 1538NORTHWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A 1539LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE 1540MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION OF THE CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT 1541TIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS 1542TRACK WAS MADE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND 1543TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. 1544 1545FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1546 1547INITIAL 28/0900Z 28.6N 61.0W 95 KT 1548 12HR VT 28/1800Z 30.2N 60.6W 95 KT 1549 24HR VT 29/0600Z 33.2N 58.6W 95 KT 1550 36HR VT 29/1800Z 36.7N 56.1W 90 KT 1551 48HR VT 30/0600Z 38.9N 54.3W 85 KT 1552 72HR VT 31/0600Z 41.5N 47.0W 70 KT 1553 96HR VT 01/0600Z 47.1N 32.4W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1554120HR VT 02/0600Z 54.5N 35.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1555 1556$$ 1557FORECASTER BRENNAN 1558 1559 1560WTNT41 KNHC 281455 1561TCDAT1 1562HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 1563NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 15641100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 1565 1566THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS AND A SERIES OF 1567MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM THE NRL TROPICAL CYCLONE WEBSITE INDICATE 1568CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF 1569DANIELLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THE OUTER 1570CONCENTRIC RING LOCATED ABOUT 60 NMI FROM THE CENTER OF THE 1571CYCLONE...HOWEVER...IS WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC...AND APPEARS TO 1572BE CLOSE TO COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. 1573CONSEQUENTLY...THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 1574STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE NORTHEASTERLY 1575SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS TRACK OVER 1576COOLER WATER. IT IS WORTH NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT THE SHIPS MODEL 1577PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS 1578DECREASED FROM 14 TO 4 PERCENT...SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE OF THIS 1579SCENARIO COMING TO FRUITION. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL AND 1580FORECAST INTENSITY WILL MAINTAIN A WIND SPEED OF 95 KT FOR 12 1581HOURS...THEN SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. BY THE 96 1582HOUR PERIOD...DANIELLE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND 1583POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE 1584FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW WEAKENING DURING THIS EVENT. 1585 1586THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 020/8. 1587DANIELLE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER 1588TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH MOVING 1589OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. A TEMPORARY 1590REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST NEAR THE 36-48 PERIOD AS A 1591MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT DAY 15923...ANOTHER MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF 1593NORTHEAST CANADA...CAUSING DANIELLE TO AGAIN ACCELERATE 1594EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD 1595CAUSE DANIELLE TO SHARPLY TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE 1596PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE 1597RIGHT BECAUSE OF THE 6 HOUR MOTION AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 1598DYNAMICAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN 1599BEYOND DAY 3. 1600 1601 1602FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1603 1604INITIAL 28/1500Z 29.3N 60.5W 95 KT 1605 12HR VT 29/0000Z 31.2N 59.5W 95 KT 1606 24HR VT 29/1200Z 34.6N 57.2W 90 KT 1607 36HR VT 30/0000Z 37.7N 54.9W 85 KT 1608 48HR VT 30/1200Z 39.5N 53.0W 75 KT 1609 72HR VT 31/1200Z 42.5N 42.5W 70 KT 1610 96HR VT 01/1200Z 51.0N 30.5W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1611120HR VT 02/1200Z 55.0N 35.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1612 1613$$ 1614FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA 1615 1616 1617WTNT41 KNHC 282033 1618TCDAT1 1619HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 1620NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1621500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 1622 1623VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A METOP-A AMSU OVERPASS INDICATE THAT ONLY A 1624FRAGMENT OF THE INNER EYEWALL EXISTS. THE AMSU IMAGE ALSO SHOWED 1625THAT THE 45 NMI DIAMETER OUTER CONCENTRIC RING HAS ERODED OVER THE 1626SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE 1627DECREASED TO 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND SO HAS THE INITIAL 1628INTENSITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW 1629OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE. THE SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH 1630AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD INCREASE LATER 1631TONIGHT PREVENTING DANIELLE FROM RE-STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY 1632FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND 1633REFLECTS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH DAY 4 AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES 1634ITS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 1635INTENSITY THEREAFTER. 1636 1637THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 030/11. 1638DANIELLE HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN 1639RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN 1640ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST 1641NEAR THE 36 PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE 1642CYCLONE. AT DAY 3...ANOTHER CANADIAN PULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 1643THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...CAUSING DANIELLE TO AGAIN ACCELERATE 1644EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD 1645INDUCE A SHARP TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 1646THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE 1647RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 1648DYNAMICAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN. 1649 1650INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING A 1426 UTC ASCAT PASS. 1651 1652FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1653 1654INITIAL 28/2100Z 30.3N 59.7W 90 KT 1655 12HR VT 29/0600Z 32.3N 58.2W 90 KT 1656 24HR VT 29/1800Z 36.1N 55.6W 85 KT 1657 36HR VT 30/0600Z 38.8N 53.8W 75 KT 1658 48HR VT 30/1800Z 40.3N 50.5W 65 KT 1659 72HR VT 31/1800Z 45.0N 38.0W 60 KT 1660 96HR VT 01/1800Z 53.0N 33.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1661120HR VT 02/1800Z 54.0N 41.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1662 1663$$ 1664FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA 1665 1666 1667WTNT41 KNHC 290248 1668TCDAT1 1669HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 1670NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 16711100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 1672 1673CONVECTION IN THE OUTER EYEWALL OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME DEEPER DURING 1674THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL CELL EVEN FIRING NEAR 1675THE DECAYED INNER EYEWALL. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE 1676BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 1677KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER 1678WATERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL 1679MODELS SHOW DANIELLE BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL 1680HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST 1681IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 1682EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS 1683SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS. 1684 1685THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS FASTER THAN BEFORE...030/17. DANIELLE 1686IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER 1687TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN 24-36 HOURS...THE 1688THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN DUE TO A FAST-MOVING 1689MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 1690BETWEEN A LARGE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE 1691TROUGH SHOULD THEN CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO 1692THE NORTHEAST IN A FEW DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN 1693REASONABLE AGREEMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THEY 1694WILDLY DIVERGE FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS 1695ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE 1696ECMWF/GFS. 1697 1698 1699FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1700 1701INITIAL 29/0300Z 31.5N 58.8W 90 KT 1702 12HR VT 29/1200Z 34.2N 56.8W 85 KT 1703 24HR VT 30/0000Z 37.5N 54.7W 75 KT 1704 36HR VT 30/1200Z 39.4N 52.5W 70 KT 1705 48HR VT 31/0000Z 40.8N 48.7W 65 KT 1706 72HR VT 01/0000Z 45.0N 34.0W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1707 96HR VT 02/0000Z 52.5N 30.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1708120HR VT 03/0000Z...ABSORBED 1709 1710$$ 1711FORECASTER BLAKE 1712 1713 1714WTNT41 KNHC 290838 1715TCDAT1 1716HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 1717NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1718500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 1719 1720DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN 1721GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED 1722SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION... 1723DUE TO ABOUT 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CI NUMBERS 1724ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL 1725INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND 1726IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN 1727EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE 1728TRANSITIONING TO AN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN 2 DAYS...AND 1729THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. 1730 1731DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...AHEAD OF A MID- 1732TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 63 W...AND THE INITIAL 1733MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/18. THE HURRICANE MAY BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN 1734DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE 1735NORTH OF DANIELLE. THEREAFTER...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 1736AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE 1737TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK 1738FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. 1739 1740THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE WESTERN 1741SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE 12-FT SEA RADII HAVE 1742ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 1743 1744FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1745 1746INITIAL 29/0900Z 33.2N 57.3W 80 KT 1747 12HR VT 29/1800Z 35.9N 55.5W 75 KT 1748 24HR VT 30/0600Z 38.3N 53.6W 70 KT 1749 36HR VT 30/1800Z 39.8N 50.7W 65 KT 1750 48HR VT 31/0600Z 41.1N 46.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1751 72HR VT 01/0600Z 46.0N 34.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1752 96HR VT 02/0600Z 54.5N 31.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1753120HR VT 03/0600Z...ABSORBED 1754 1755$$ 1756FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 1757 1758 1759WTNT41 KNHC 290248 1760TCDAT1 1761HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 1762NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 17631100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 1764 1765CONVECTION IN THE OUTER EYEWALL OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME DEEPER DURING 1766THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL CELL EVEN FIRING NEAR 1767THE DECAYED INNER EYEWALL. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE 1768BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 1769KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER 1770WATERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL 1771MODELS SHOW DANIELLE BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL 1772HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST 1773IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 1774EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS 1775SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS. 1776 1777THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS FASTER THAN BEFORE...030/17. DANIELLE 1778IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER 1779TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN 24-36 HOURS...THE 1780THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN DUE TO A FAST-MOVING 1781MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 1782BETWEEN A LARGE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE 1783TROUGH SHOULD THEN CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO 1784THE NORTHEAST IN A FEW DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN 1785REASONABLE AGREEMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THEY 1786WILDLY DIVERGE FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS 1787ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE 1788ECMWF/GFS. 1789 1790 1791FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1792 1793INITIAL 29/0300Z 31.5N 58.8W 90 KT 179412HR VT 29/1200Z 34.2N 56.8W 85 KT 179524HR VT 30/0000Z 37.5N 54.7W 75 KT 179636HR VT 30/1200Z 39.4N 52.5W 70 KT 179748HR VT 31/0000Z 40.8N 48.7W 65 KT 179872HR VT 01/0000Z 45.0N 34.0W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 179996HR VT 02/0000Z 52.5N 30.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1800120HR VT 03/0000Z...ABSORBED 1801 1802$$ 1803FORECASTER BLAKE 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808WTNT41 KNHC 290838 1809TCDAT1 1810HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 1811NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1812500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 1813 1814DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN 1815GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED 1816SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION... 1817DUE TO ABOUT 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CI NUMBERS 1818ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL 1819INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND 1820IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN 1821EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE 1822TRANSITIONING TO AN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN 2 DAYS...AND 1823THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. 1824 1825DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...AHEAD OF A MID- 1826TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 63 W...AND THE INITIAL 1827MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/18. THE HURRICANE MAY BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN 1828DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE 1829NORTH OF DANIELLE. THEREAFTER...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 1830AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE 1831TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK 1832FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. 1833 1834THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE WESTERN 1835SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE 12-FT SEA RADII HAVE 1836ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 1837 1838FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1839 1840INITIAL 29/0900Z 33.2N 57.3W 80 KT 184112HR VT 29/1800Z 35.9N 55.5W 75 KT 184224HR VT 30/0600Z 38.3N 53.6W 70 KT 184336HR VT 30/1800Z 39.8N 50.7W 65 KT 184448HR VT 31/0600Z 41.1N 46.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 184572HR VT 01/0600Z 46.0N 34.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 184696HR VT 02/0600Z 54.5N 31.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1847120HR VT 03/0600Z...ABSORBED 1848 1849$$ 1850FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 1851 1852 1853 1854000 1855 1856WTNT41 KNHC 291501 1857TCDAT1 1858HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 1859NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 18601100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 1861 1862DANIELLE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING TODAY AS DEPICTED IN THE 1863GEOSTATIONARY AND POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY. VISIBLE AND 1864MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE 0948Z TRMM AND 0950Z SSMIS 1865SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT 1866NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE AT 4.5 FROM 1867TAFB...OR 77 KT...AND 4.0 FROM SAB...OR 65 KT. A 0830Z AMSU 1868INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS SUGGESTED SOMEWHAT HIGHER 1869WINDS...BASED UPON A WELL-DEFINED MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. 1870THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE. 1871 1872DANIELLE IS MOVING A BIT FASTER...23 KT...TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS 1873MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS 1874NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE 1875IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN DEPICTING MOTION TOWARD THE 1876NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE 1877SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR 1878THE 96 HR POINT. THAT FORECAST POSITION IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS 1879ADVISORY BUT EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE 1880MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF IT BECOMING 1881ABSORBED. 1882 1883DANIELLE IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING SOME BAROCLINICITY WHICH IS 1884BEING MANIFEST THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST 1885SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD 1886AND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC 1887STATES...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE DELAYED. DURING THE 1888NEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO MODERATE 1889VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS UNDER ITS TRACK. ALL DYNAMICAL 1890MODELS AGREE THAT A FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN 1891ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND ET IS INDICATED HERE AT 48 HOUR. AFTER THIS 1892TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND 1893REMAIN A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 4 DAYS. THE 1894INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BIT 1895HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND HURRICANE MODEL 1896GUIDANCE...AS BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A HIGH 1897END TROPICAL STORM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. BY DAY 18985...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 1899IN THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED 1900POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL 1901PORTION OF DANIELLE. 1902 1903 1904FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1905 1906INITIAL 29/1500Z 35.5N 55.5W 75 KT 1907 12HR VT 30/0000Z 38.0N 53.8W 70 KT 1908 24HR VT 30/1200Z 39.7N 51.9W 65 KT 1909 36HR VT 31/0000Z 40.9N 48.5W 60 KT 1910 48HR VT 31/1200Z 43.1N 42.3W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1911 72HR VT 01/1200Z 47.0N 34.0W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1912 96HR VT 02/1200Z 57.5N 34.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1913120HR VT 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED 1914 1915$$ 1916FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG 1917 1918 1919WTNT41 KNHC 292046 1920TCDAT1 1921HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 1922NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1923500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 1924 1925DEEP CONVECTION AROUND DANIELLE HAS BECOME RATHER ASYMMETRIC WITH 1926MOST OF THE COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE CYCLONE'S NORTHERN 1927SEMICIRCLE. CORRESPONDING...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 1928SAB AND TAFB ARE DROPPING WITH 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND 4.0...OR 65 1929KT...RESPECTIVELY. FORTUNATELY...A FORTUITOUS ASCAT PASS WAS 1930RECEIVED FROM 1404Z WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE HURRICANE 1931FORCE WIND VECTORS. A CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM A 1626Z 1932NOAA-19 OVERPASS EVEN SUGGESTED CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY...THOUGH 1933THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT 1934AS A BLEND OF THESE. DANIELLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME 1935BAROCLINICITY... WHICH IS BEING MANIFEST THROUGH THE COLD AIR 1936ADVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...AS 1937THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY 1938STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...THE EXTRATROPICAL 1939TRANSITION SHOULD BE DELAYED. 1940 1941DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A 1942CURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 25 KT. THERE WAS CONCERN THAT WE WERE 1943FOLLOWING A MID-LEVEL VORTEX RATHER THAN THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. 1944HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE AND POLAR ORBITING MICROWAVE IMAGERY 1945SUGGESTS THAT THE VORTEX IS STILL COHERENT VERTICALLY. DANIELLE 1946SHOULD DECELERATE SOME AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY 1947TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS 1948NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE 1949MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX IN ABOUT 48 HR WHEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES 1950EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE IS A PROMINENT BAROCLINIC 1951DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF DANIELLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE VORTEX 1952FROM DANIELLE BECOMING ABSORBED AT THAT TIME. ASSUMING THAT 1953DANIELLE REMAINS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL 1954TRANSITION...A TRACK FORECAST IS PROVIDED THROUGH 96 HR. THE 1955FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MODEL 1956CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HR BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION 1957THAN ANTCIPATED...AND THEN SIMILAR TO BOTH THEREAFTER. UNTIL 1958EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...DANIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN 1959GRADUALLY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS UNDER 1960ITS TRACK. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED POSITION... 1961INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF 1962DANIELLE. 1963 1964THE 1404Z ASCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT ENLARGEMENT OF THE 196534...50...AND 64 KT WIND RADII ESTIMATED FOR THE INITIAL TIME. 1966 1967FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1968 1969INITIAL 29/2100Z 38.0N 54.5W 70 KT 1970 12HR VT 30/0600Z 40.1N 52.9W 65 KT 1971 24HR VT 30/1800Z 41.3N 50.2W 60 KT 1972 36HR VT 31/0600Z 42.3N 45.5W 55 KT 1973 48HR VT 31/1800Z 44.0N 39.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1974 72HR VT 01/1800Z 51.0N 30.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1975 96HR VT 02/1800Z 57.6N 32.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1976120HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED 1977 1978$$ 1979FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG 1980 1981 1982WTNT41 KNHC 300250 1983TCDAT1 1984HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 1985NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 19861100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 1987 1988DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ERODED INTO AN ELONGATED BAND IN THE 1989NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER 1990AND TAKES ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... 1991A UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 29/2133 UTC STILL INDICATED 1992A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE...AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 87 KT AND 1993A PRESSURE OF 968 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF 1994THE AMSU ESTIMATE AND A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1995T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB. 1996 1997DANIELLE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS 1998AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/14. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 1999THAT DANIELLE HAS CLEARLY BEEN CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL 2000TROUGH AND THE FLOW PATTERN IS EVOLVING INTO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE 2001CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TYPICALLY MOVES SLOWER THAN A 2002TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS LATITUDE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR 2003AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EAST- 2004NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY 2005ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAYS 20063 AND 4 AS A LARGER AND STRONGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT 2007OF NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND ACTS TO KICK OUT THE EXTRATROPICAL 2008DANIELLE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE 2009PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS 2010TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...AFTER THAT. 2011 2012DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY 2013EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER 2014MUCH COOLER WATER THAT LIES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE 2015CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GET A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY BY 72 HOURS 2016FROM THE LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF CANADA... 2017WHICH WILL HELP THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION REMAIN LARGE AND FAIRLY 2018STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES. 2019 2020THE 34-KT WIND RADII REMAIN LARGE AND ARE UNCHANGED BASED ON LIMITED 2021SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. 12-FT SEAS 2022RADII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT 2023BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM TAFB AND THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 2024 2025 2026FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2027 2028INITIAL 30/0300Z 39.3N 53.0W 70 KT 2029 12HR VT 30/1200Z 40.8N 51.2W 60 KT 2030 24HR VT 31/0000Z 42.0N 47.4W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2031 36HR VT 31/1200Z 43.5N 42.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2032 48HR VT 01/0000Z 45.1N 34.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2033 72HR VT 02/0000Z 51.5N 27.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2034 96HR VT 03/0000Z 60.0N 30.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2035120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED 2036 2037$$ 2038FORECASTER STEWART 2039 2040 2041WTNT41 KNHC 300841 2042TCDAT1 2043HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 2044NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 2045500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 2046 2047ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT 2048AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER 2049AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 2050OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE 2051OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND A 30/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT INDICATED 2052DANIELLE STILL POSSESSED A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE SIMILAR TO 2053THAT OF AN EARLIER 29/2133Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT YIELDED AN INTENSITY 2054ESTIMATE OF 87 KT. 2055 2056THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE 2057PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIELLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY A 2058MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO 2059EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTER 2060THAT...A LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF 2061NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND HELP TO ACCELERATE WHAT WILL BE 2062EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN 2063NORTHWARD BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO 2064THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS 2065A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN 2066PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. 2067 2068DANIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY 2069EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES 2070OVER COOLER WATER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING 20C. BY 72 HOURS...WHAT 2071WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE AT THAT TIME MAY STRENGTHEN 2072SOME AS BAROCLINIC ENERGY GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE MUCH 2073LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF 2074NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN 2075LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES. 2076 2077MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ALREADY LARGE 34-KT WIND RADII 2078AND THE 12-FT SEAS RADII BASED ON A FEW SURROUNDING BUOY 2079OBSERVATIONS...AND ON 29/2344Z AND 30/0134 ASCAT WINDS. 2080 2081 2082FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2083 2084INITIAL 30/0900Z 40.4N 52.0W 65 KT 2085 12HR VT 30/1800Z 41.6N 49.3W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2086 24HR VT 31/0600Z 42.7N 44.3W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2087 36HR VT 31/1800Z 44.0N 38.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2088 48HR VT 01/0600Z 46.0N 32.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2089 72HR VT 02/0600Z 53.0N 26.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2090 96HR VT 03/0600Z 63.0N 32.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2091120HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED 2092 2093$$ 2094FORECASTER STEWART 2095 2096 2097WTNT41 KNHC 301449 2098TCDAT1 2099HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 2100NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 21011100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 2102 2103DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO 2104SUBSIDE...WITH THE REMAINING COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE 2105NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK 2106CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 4.0...OR 65 KT. 2107SIMILARLY...TWO AMSU MEASUREMENTS OF THE WARM CORE ALSO SUGGESTED 210870-75 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE EARLIER THIS MORNING. 2109FINALLY...SHIP WCZ5528 AT 13Z REPORTED 64 KT WINDS...974 MB 2110PRESSURE...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 52 FEET. DANIELLE 2111REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. 2112 2113DANIELLE IS IN THE MIDST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND INDEED THE 2114ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44140 IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 2115FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL 2116MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE 2117DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL 2118IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC FORCING ARRIVES THIS 2119EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER TRANSITION 2120WITH PEAK INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. 2121 2122THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KT. THE 2123SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH 2124SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO 2125DAYS. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYS THREE AND 2126FOUR IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE 2127EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FIVE. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER 2128PROVIDED POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE 2129EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF DANIELLE. 2130 2131 2132FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2133 2134INITIAL 30/1500Z 40.9N 50.7W 65 KT 2135 12HR VT 31/0000Z 41.9N 47.7W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2136 24HR VT 31/1200Z 43.4N 41.2W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2137 36HR VT 01/0000Z 46.0N 31.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2138 48HR VT 01/1200Z 48.0N 24.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2139 72HR VT 02/1200Z 53.0N 21.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2140 96HR VT 03/1200Z 61.5N 38.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2141120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED 2142 2143$$ 2144FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG 2145 2146 2147WTNT41 KNHC 291501 2148TCDAT1 2149HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 2150NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 21511100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 2152 2153DANIELLE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING TODAY AS DEPICTED IN THE 2154GEOSTATIONARY AND POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY. VISIBLE AND 2155MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE 0948Z TRMM AND 0950Z SSMIS 2156SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT 2157NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE AT 4.5 FROM 2158TAFB...OR 77 KT...AND 4.0 FROM SAB...OR 65 KT. A 0830Z AMSU 2159INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS SUGGESTED SOMEWHAT HIGHER 2160WINDS...BASED UPON A WELL-DEFINED MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. 2161THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE. 2162 2163DANIELLE IS MOVING A BIT FASTER...23 KT...TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS 2164MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS 2165NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE 2166IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN DEPICTING MOTION TOWARD THE 2167NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE 2168SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR 2169THE 96 HR POINT. THAT FORECAST POSITION IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS 2170ADVISORY BUT EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE 2171MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF IT BECOMING 2172ABSORBED. 2173 2174DANIELLE IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING SOME BAROCLINICITY WHICH IS 2175BEING MANIFEST THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST 2176SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD 2177AND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC 2178STATES...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE DELAYED. DURING THE 2179NEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO MODERATE 2180VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS UNDER ITS TRACK. ALL DYNAMICAL 2181MODELS AGREE THAT A FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN 2182ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND ET IS INDICATED HERE AT 48 HOUR. AFTER THIS 2183TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND 2184REMAIN A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 4 DAYS. THE 2185INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BIT 2186HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND HURRICANE MODEL 2187GUIDANCE...AS BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A HIGH 2188END TROPICAL STORM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. BY DAY 21895...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 2190IN THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED 2191POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL 2192PORTION OF DANIELLE. 2193 2194 2195FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2196 2197INITIAL 29/1500Z 35.5N 55.5W 75 KT 219812HR VT 30/0000Z 38.0N 53.8W 70 KT 219924HR VT 30/1200Z 39.7N 51.9W 65 KT 220036HR VT 31/0000Z 40.9N 48.5W 60 KT 220148HR VT 31/1200Z 43.1N 42.3W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 220272HR VT 01/1200Z 47.0N 34.0W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 220396HR VT 02/1200Z 57.5N 34.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2204120HR VT 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED 2205 2206$$ 2207FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG 2208 2209 2210 2211 2212WTNT41 KNHC 292046 2213TCDAT1 2214HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 2215NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 2216500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 2217 2218DEEP CONVECTION AROUND DANIELLE HAS BECOME RATHER ASYMMETRIC WITH 2219MOST OF THE COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE CYCLONE'S NORTHERN 2220SEMICIRCLE. CORRESPONDING...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 2221SAB AND TAFB ARE DROPPING WITH 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND 4.0...OR 65 2222KT...RESPECTIVELY. FORTUNATELY...A FORTUITOUS ASCAT PASS WAS 2223RECEIVED FROM 1404Z WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE HURRICANE 2224FORCE WIND VECTORS. A CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM A 1626Z 2225NOAA-19 OVERPASS EVEN SUGGESTED CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY...THOUGH 2226THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT 2227AS A BLEND OF THESE. DANIELLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME 2228BAROCLINICITY... WHICH IS BEING MANIFEST THROUGH THE COLD AIR 2229ADVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...AS 2230THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY 2231STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...THE EXTRATROPICAL 2232TRANSITION SHOULD BE DELAYED. 2233 2234DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A 2235CURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 25 KT. THERE WAS CONCERN THAT WE WERE 2236FOLLOWING A MID-LEVEL VORTEX RATHER THAN THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. 2237HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE AND POLAR ORBITING MICROWAVE IMAGERY 2238SUGGESTS THAT THE VORTEX IS STILL COHERENT VERTICALLY. DANIELLE 2239SHOULD DECELERATE SOME AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY 2240TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS 2241NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE 2242MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX IN ABOUT 48 HR WHEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES 2243EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE IS A PROMINENT BAROCLINIC 2244DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF DANIELLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE VORTEX 2245FROM DANIELLE BECOMING ABSORBED AT THAT TIME. ASSUMING THAT 2246DANIELLE REMAINS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL 2247TRANSITION...A TRACK FORECAST IS PROVIDED THROUGH 96 HR. THE 2248FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MODEL 2249CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HR BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION 2250THAN ANTCIPATED...AND THEN SIMILAR TO BOTH THEREAFTER. UNTIL 2251EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...DANIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN 2252GRADUALLY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS UNDER 2253ITS TRACK. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED POSITION... 2254INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF 2255DANIELLE. 2256 2257THE 1404Z ASCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT ENLARGEMENT OF THE 225834...50...AND 64 KT WIND RADII ESTIMATED FOR THE INITIAL TIME. 2259 2260FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2261 2262INITIAL 29/2100Z 38.0N 54.5W 70 KT 226312HR VT 30/0600Z 40.1N 52.9W 65 KT 226424HR VT 30/1800Z 41.3N 50.2W 60 KT 226536HR VT 31/0600Z 42.3N 45.5W 55 KT 226648HR VT 31/1800Z 44.0N 39.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 226772HR VT 01/1800Z 51.0N 30.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 226896HR VT 02/1800Z 57.6N 32.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2269120HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED 2270 2271$$ 2272FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG 2273 2274 2275 2276000 2277 2278WTNT41 KNHC 300250 2279TCDAT1 2280HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 2281NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 22821100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 2283 2284DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ERODED INTO AN ELONGATED BAND IN THE 2285NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER 2286AND TAKES ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... 2287A UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 29/2133 UTC STILL INDICATED 2288A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE...AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 87 KT AND 2289A PRESSURE OF 968 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF 2290THE AMSU ESTIMATE AND A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2291T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB. 2292 2293DANIELLE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS 2294AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/14. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 2295THAT DANIELLE HAS CLEARLY BEEN CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL 2296TROUGH AND THE FLOW PATTERN IS EVOLVING INTO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE 2297CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TYPICALLY MOVES SLOWER THAN A 2298TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS LATITUDE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR 2299AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EAST- 2300NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY 2301ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAYS 23023 AND 4 AS A LARGER AND STRONGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT 2303OF NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND ACTS TO KICK OUT THE EXTRATROPICAL 2304DANIELLE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE 2305PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS 2306TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...AFTER THAT. 2307 2308DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY 2309EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER 2310MUCH COOLER WATER THAT LIES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE 2311CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GET A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY BY 72 HOURS 2312FROM THE LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF CANADA... 2313WHICH WILL HELP THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION REMAIN LARGE AND FAIRLY 2314STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES. 2315 2316THE 34-KT WIND RADII REMAIN LARGE AND ARE UNCHANGED BASED ON LIMITED 2317SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. 12-FT SEAS 2318RADII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT 2319BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM TAFB AND THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 2320 2321 2322FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2323 2324INITIAL 30/0300Z 39.3N 53.0W 70 KT 232512HR VT 30/1200Z 40.8N 51.2W 60 KT 232624HR VT 31/0000Z 42.0N 47.4W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 232736HR VT 31/1200Z 43.5N 42.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 232848HR VT 01/0000Z 45.1N 34.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 232972HR VT 02/0000Z 51.5N 27.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 233096HR VT 03/0000Z 60.0N 30.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2331120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED 2332 2333$$ 2334FORECASTER STEWART 2335 2336 2337 2338 2339WTNT41 KNHC 300841 2340TCDAT1 2341HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 2342NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 2343500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 2344 2345ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT 2346AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER 2347AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 2348OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE 2349OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND A 30/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT INDICATED 2350DANIELLE STILL POSSESSED A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE SIMILAR TO 2351THAT OF AN EARLIER 29/2133Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT YIELDED AN INTENSITY 2352ESTIMATE OF 87 KT. 2353 2354THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE 2355PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIELLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY A 2356MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO 2357EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTER 2358THAT...A LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF 2359NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND HELP TO ACCELERATE WHAT WILL BE 2360EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN 2361NORTHWARD BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO 2362THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS 2363A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN 2364PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. 2365 2366DANIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY 2367EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES 2368OVER COOLER WATER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING 20C. BY 72 HOURS...WHAT 2369WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE AT THAT TIME MAY STRENGTHEN 2370SOME AS BAROCLINIC ENERGY GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE MUCH 2371LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF 2372NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN 2373LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES. 2374 2375MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ALREADY LARGE 34-KT WIND RADII 2376AND THE 12-FT SEAS RADII BASED ON A FEW SURROUNDING BUOY 2377OBSERVATIONS...AND ON 29/2344Z AND 30/0134 ASCAT WINDS. 2378 2379 2380FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2381 2382INITIAL 30/0900Z 40.4N 52.0W 65 KT 238312HR VT 30/1800Z 41.6N 49.3W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 238424HR VT 31/0600Z 42.7N 44.3W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 238536HR VT 31/1800Z 44.0N 38.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 238648HR VT 01/0600Z 46.0N 32.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 238772HR VT 02/0600Z 53.0N 26.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 238896HR VT 03/0600Z 63.0N 32.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2389120HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED 2390 2391$$ 2392FORECASTER STEWART 2393 2394 2395 2396000 2397 2398WTNT41 KNHC 301449 2399TCDAT1 2400HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 2401NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 24021100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 2403 2404DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO 2405SUBSIDE...WITH THE REMAINING COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE 2406NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK 2407CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 4.0...OR 65 KT. 2408SIMILARLY...TWO AMSU MEASUREMENTS OF THE WARM CORE ALSO SUGGESTED 240970-75 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE EARLIER THIS MORNING. 2410FINALLY...SHIP WCZ5528 AT 13Z REPORTED 64 KT WINDS...974 MB 2411PRESSURE...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 52 FEET. DANIELLE 2412REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. 2413 2414DANIELLE IS IN THE MIDST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND INDEED THE 2415ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44140 IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 2416FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL 2417MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE 2418DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL 2419IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC FORCING ARRIVES THIS 2420EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER TRANSITION 2421WITH PEAK INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. 2422 2423THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KT. THE 2424SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH 2425SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO 2426DAYS. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYS THREE AND 2427FOUR IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE 2428EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FIVE. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER 2429PROVIDED POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE 2430EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF DANIELLE. 2431 2432 2433FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2434 2435INITIAL 30/1500Z 40.9N 50.7W 65 KT 243612HR VT 31/0000Z 41.9N 47.7W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 243724HR VT 31/1200Z 43.4N 41.2W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 243836HR VT 01/0000Z 46.0N 31.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 243948HR VT 01/1200Z 48.0N 24.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 244072HR VT 02/1200Z 53.0N 21.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 244196HR VT 03/1200Z 61.5N 38.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2442120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED 2443 2444$$ 2445FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG 2446 2447 2448 2449000 2450 2451WTNT41 KNHC 302034 2452TCDAT1 2453TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 2454NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 2455500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 2456 2457DANIELLE IS STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THIS 2458AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE 2459YESTERDAY AND RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER 2460OF THE CYCLONE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK 2461CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 3.5...OR 55 KT. AN AMSU 2462MEASUREMENT OF THE WARM CORE INDICATED 62 KT AT 1616Z USING THE 2463CIMSS TECHNIQUE. BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE...DANIELLE IS 2464DOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. A 1340Z ASCAT 2465PASS ALLOWED US TO CONTRACT IN THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII 2466SOMEWHAT. 2467 2468EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD PROCEED QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL 2469AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE 2470PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY 2471EXTRATROPICAL BY EARLY TUESDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE 2472DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. DANIELLE SHOULD 2473REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH PEAK 2474INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE FOR A DAY OR SO. 2475 2476THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. 2477THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE 2478TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR 2479THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAY THREE IS 2480ANTICIPATED AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE 2481EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR. THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE 2482EXTRATROPICAL PHASE IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF 2483GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REVISED TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF 2484THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED 2485POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL 2486PORTION OF DANIELLE. 2487 2488 2489FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2490 2491INITIAL 30/2100Z 41.3N 49.0W 60 KT 2492 12HR VT 31/0600Z 42.0N 45.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2493 24HR VT 31/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2494 36HR VT 01/0600Z 45.5N 30.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2495 48HR VT 01/1800Z 48.0N 23.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2496 72HR VT 02/1800Z 55.5N 23.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2497 96HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED 2498 2499$$ 2500FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG 2501 2502 2503WTNT41 KNHC 310249 2504TCDAT1 2505TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 2506NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 25071100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 2508 2509SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE 2510HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN 2511ADDITION...AMSU MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THE WARM-CORE ASSOCIATED 2512WITH THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 12 2513HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT BUT IS 2514FAIRLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN 2515THE VICINITY OF DANIELLE IN RECENT HOURS. DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF 2516CONVECTION...WEAKENING OF THE WARM-CORE AND A NON-TROPICAL 2517SATELLITE APPEARANCE...DANIELLE IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL 2518STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED 2519TO BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY...WITH 2520BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OVERTAKING DANIELLE BY LATE TOMORROW. 2521 2522THE CENTER IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH...MAKING THE 2523INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/13 SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL 2524MODELS SHOW DANIELLE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AND ACCELERATING AROUND 2525A LARGE 500 MB CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING EASTWARD SOUTH OF GREENLAND 2526DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED 2527TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 2528FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE 2529PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 2530 2531FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS 2532FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 2533HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. 2534 2535 2536FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2537 2538INITIAL 31/0300Z 41.3N 47.1W 60 KT...POST-TROPICAL 2539 12HR VT 31/1200Z 42.3N 41.8W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2540 24HR VT 01/0000Z 44.3N 34.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2541 36HR VT 01/1200Z 47.0N 26.6W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2542 48HR VT 02/0000Z 50.7N 22.8W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2543 72HR VT 03/0000Z...ABSORBED 2544 2545$$ 2546FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN 2547 2548 2549