1WTNT42 KNHC 252029 2TCDAT2 3TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 5500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010 6 7THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM EARL...HAS 8FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. 9HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS 10CONTINUE TO GROW AND THE CONVECTION...BOTH IN CLUSTERS AND CURVED 11BANDS HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB 12AND SAB HAVE REACHED 3.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING 13THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. MOST OF THE 14GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT OF 15RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW SHEAR 16COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL 17STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A 18HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. 19 20THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KNOTS. MOST OF THE 21GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING 22FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL 23LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 24TO 4 DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AT 25THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN 26EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FIVE DAY FORECAST 27POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND IS BASICALLY ON 28TOP OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF LOCATION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WAS 29BASED ON THE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS 30IN FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A 31LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO 32THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE 33NEXT MODEL CYCLE. 34 35 36FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 37 38INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.4N 32.2W 35 KT 39 12HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 34.6W 40 KT 40 24HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 38.0W 45 KT 41 36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.5N 41.0W 55 KT 42 48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W 65 KT 43 72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 75 KT 44 96HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 55.0W 80 KT 45120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 60.0W 80 KT 46 47$$ 48FORECASTER AVILA 49 50 51WTNT42 KNHC 260241 52TCDAT2 53TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 54NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 551100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010 56 57THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF EARL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. 58INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF 59THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE 60INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 61LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS 62CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND 63DYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A 64COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS 65SHOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THAN BEFORE. THE 66INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY 67THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER THEREAFTER TO 68BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON. 69 70SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED 71IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/14. EARL 72IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL 73RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 74IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY 4 AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION 75OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS 76SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE 77MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THAT TIME. THEREAFTER... 78THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND 79GFDN SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FOR NOW... 80THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 81GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE USUALLY 82RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS. 83 84 85FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 86 87INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.7N 33.6W 35 KT 88 12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 35.9W 40 KT 89 24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.5N 39.1W 45 KT 90 36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 42.3W 55 KT 91 48HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 45.4W 65 KT 92 72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.4N 51.3W 75 KT 93 96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 56.5W 85 KT 94120HR VT 31/0000Z 21.5N 60.5W 90 KT 95 96$$ 97FORECASTER BROWN 98 99 100WTNT42 KNHC 260848 101TCDAT2 102TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 103NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 104500 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010 105 106CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SPIRAL BANDS 107AROUND EARL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... 108PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE 109STRUCTURE...HOWEVER...IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO 110NORTHEAST AXIS. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 111TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT..RESPECTIVELY. USING A BLEND OF THE 112TWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE OCEAN IS 113WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR 114STRENGTHENING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE 115LGEM...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS ALL SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A 116HURRICANE IN 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND ALSO 117BRINGS EARL TO CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BY DAY 5. 118 119THE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. 120A 2315 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED AN ELONGATED CENTER NEAR THE 121CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WELL TO 122THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...A SUBSEQUENT 123AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS AT 2318 UTC AND A RECENT 0430 UTC TRMM IMAGE 124SUGGESTED THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 125AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS...MUCH CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK. 126FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND BASED ON THESE DATA...CONTINUITY WILL BE 127MAINTAINED AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BE NEAR THE NORTHERN 128CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOSE TO THE TRMM FIX. IF THE 129CIRCULATION CENTER DOES REFORM FARTHER SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK 130WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH...OR TO THE LEFT OF THIS ADVISORY 131PACKAGE. 132 133EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AN ESTIMATED 285 DEGREES 134AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICAL 135ATLANTIC TRADE WIND FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK 136OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE 137WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD A 138BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND 139THE NAVY GFDN...WHICH ARE BOTH INDICATING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD 140THE NORTHWEST...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 141DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS 142AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. 143 144FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 145 146INITIAL 26/0900Z 15.2N 34.8W 40 KT 147 12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.7N 37.2W 45 KT 148 24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.4N 40.3W 50 KT 149 36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.6N 43.7W 60 KT 150 48HR VT 28/0600Z 16.7N 47.0W 70 KT 151 72HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 52.3W 80 KT 152 96HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 57.0W 90 KT 153120HR VT 31/0600Z 22.5N 60.0W 95 KT 154 155$$ 156FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN 157 158 159WTNT42 KNHC 261459 160TCDAT2 161TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 162NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1631100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010 164 165VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EARL HAS NOT BECOME 166ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IN FACT...THE INNER 167CORE CONVECTION HAS ERODED DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NOTED IN 168CONVENTIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN A 0735Z SSMI WATER VAPOR 169IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY 170BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 171KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. 172 173THE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED ABOUT 30 NMI SOUTH OF THE 174PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FORECAST TRACK BASED ON A BLEND OF VISIBLE 175AND MICROWAVE FIXES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A 24-HOUR 176AVERAGE OF 275/15...AFTER SMOOTHING THROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND 177WOBBLES IN THE FIXES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SOUTH 178OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE IN PART TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL 179POSITION. OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE 180PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO 181WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN 182NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN 183THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS 184WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW IS THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF HURRICANE 185DANIELLE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO CAPTURE AND LIFT OUT 186THAT HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST. IF DANIELLE RECURVES FASTER THAN 187CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WHICH THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT... 188THEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF EARL COULD BUILD BACK IN SOONER AND 189KEEP EARL ON A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN INDICATED BY 190THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE ADVISORY TRACK LIES ALONG THE 191NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND 192SIMILAR TO THE SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. 193 194ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN 195QUITE LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT 196INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT EARL 197IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME IS EXPECTED TO RESULT 198IN A SLOWER THAN NORMAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 1994 AND 5...EARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY PERIPHERY 200OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS 201DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE 202CYCLONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EARL COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE 203STRENGTH BY THAT TIME...AS INDICATED BY THE HWRF MODEL. THE 204OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY 205MODELS. 206 207FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 208 209INITIAL 26/1500Z 14.9N 37.1W 40 KT 210 12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.4N 39.4W 45 KT 211 24HR VT 27/1200Z 15.7N 42.6W 50 KT 212 36HR VT 28/0000Z 16.1N 46.0W 55 KT 213 48HR VT 28/1200Z 16.5N 49.1W 65 KT 214 72HR VT 29/1200Z 17.8N 54.4W 75 KT 215 96HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 58.5W 85 KT 216120HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 61.0W 95 KT 217 218$$ 219FORECASTER STEWART 220 221 222WTNT42 KNHC 262055 223TCDAT2 224TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 225NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 226500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010 227 228INNER-CORE CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BUT 229THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AND STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME 230MORE CIRCULAR IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. AN 1150Z ASCAT PASS EARLIER THIS 231MORNING INDICATED EARL POSSESSED A LARGE SWATH OF 34-KT WINDS MORE 232THAN 90 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER 233NEAR-SURFACE WINDS GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT WINDS. THE INITIAL 234INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF 235SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB 236AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY..AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT WINDS. EARL 237ALSO PASSED JUST NORTH OF PIRATA BUOY 13008 AROUND 1800Z...WHICH 238REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THIS PRESSURE VALUE WOULD ALSO 239SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT. 240 241EARL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/16. THE 242OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE 243STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE. BY 72 244HOURS...EARL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS 245INDUCED BY DANIELLE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO 246HELP RECURVE THAT HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS EARL APPROACHES 247THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN 248AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS 249ARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER 250THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 251BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL. 252THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN 253NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL 254FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 255HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 256AFTER THAT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF 257THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EVENT THE CIRCULATION CENTER 258REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. 259 260ALTHOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS 261EARL THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS TO 262TRAVERSE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. BY 48 263HOURS...SOME OF THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE 264DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS 265EARL...WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 2664 AND 5...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE 267FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS EARL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST 268PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SYNOPTIC-SCALE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE...WHICH 269SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE 270CYCLONE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING DEVELOPMENT 271OF THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND STRENGTHEN EARL TO CATEGORY 4 272INTENSITY BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE 273LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN 274HIGHER AT DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. 275 276FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 277 278INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.2N 38.8W 40 KT 279 12HR VT 27/0600Z 15.6N 41.2W 45 KT 280 24HR VT 27/1800Z 15.9N 44.4W 55 KT 281 36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.3N 47.7W 60 KT 282 48HR VT 28/1800Z 16.7N 50.8W 65 KT 283 72HR VT 29/1800Z 18.2N 55.9W 75 KT 284 96HR VT 30/1800Z 20.6N 60.0W 85 KT 285120HR VT 31/1800Z 23.0N 62.5W 100 KT 286 287$$ 288FORECASTER STEWART 289 290 291WTNT42 KNHC 270232 292TCDAT2 293TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 294NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 2951100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010 296 297 298AFTER LOSING MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARL 299HAS DEVELOPED NEW THUNDERSTORM CELLS AROUND THE LARGE AND 300WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TONIGHT. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND 301STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. EARL IS MOVING 302TOWARD A WARMER OCEAN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER RELATIVELY 303LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 304EARL WILL DEVELOP A DEEP CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY A LARGE 305UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS NORMALLY IS AN INDICATION OF 306STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS DEVELOP 307EARL INTO AN INTENSE HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 308ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A 309HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION 310THEREAFTER. 311 312ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE CIRCULATION...THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO 313LOCATE. USING ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA...THE 314BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. 315EARL IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 316AFRICA WESTWARD TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE 317CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. EARL 318SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST 319AS IT APPROACHES 60W WHERE THERE IS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE 320SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD 321AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE 322ENVELOPE...BUT BIASED TO THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. 323 324 325FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 326 327INITIAL 27/0300Z 15.5N 40.2W 40 KT 328 12HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 42.8W 40 KT 329 24HR VT 28/0000Z 16.3N 46.0W 45 KT 330 36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.5N 49.3W 55 KT 331 48HR VT 29/0000Z 16.7N 52.5W 65 KT 332 72HR VT 30/0000Z 18.5N 58.0W 75 KT 333 96HR VT 31/0000Z 21.0N 62.0W 85 KT 334120HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 65.0W 100 KT 335 336$$ 337FORECASTER AVILA 338 339 340WTNT42 KNHC 270839 341TCDAT2 342TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 343NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 344500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 345 346EARL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 347SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION THAT REFORMED AROUND 00 UTC HAS 348PERSISTED IN BROAD CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED 349LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT 350AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL 351INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC 352ENVIRONMENTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND INDEED ALL 353OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE 354FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST 355WHICH BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 DAYS AND SHOWS 356ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. 357 358EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A CONSISTENT WESTWARD PATH AND THE INITIAL 359MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO 360CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS 361STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. EARL IS 362EXPECTED TO APPROACH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED 363BY HURRICANE DANIELLE...IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A 364TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD 365SPEED. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR MUCH 366OF THE PERIOD AND THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY 367AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. 368 369FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 370 371INITIAL 27/0900Z 15.9N 41.6W 40 KT 372 12HR VT 27/1800Z 16.2N 44.2W 45 KT 373 24HR VT 28/0600Z 16.4N 47.4W 50 KT 374 36HR VT 28/1800Z 16.6N 50.7W 55 KT 375 48HR VT 29/0600Z 17.2N 53.9W 65 KT 376 72HR VT 30/0600Z 19.0N 59.0W 75 KT 377 96HR VT 31/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W 85 KT 378120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 65.0W 100 KT 379 380$$ 381FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 382 383 384WTNT42 KNHC 271431 385TCDAT2 386TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 387NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 3881100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 389 390THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 391HOURS. EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION...MODERATE BANDS 392OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FAIR OUTFLOW. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES 393STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THE OCEAN AND THE 394ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS 395REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL SHOWING 396STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...BOTH GFDL AND HWRF ARE AGGRESSIVE IN 397MAKING EARL AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN 5 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE 398OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END 399OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 400 401EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS EMBEDDED 402WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW 403SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR 404THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO 405APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO 406TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN 407FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR 408THE FIRST 48 HOURS SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL 409ESTABLISHED. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST... 410THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE 411IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND 412THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. 413 414A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING 415EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND 416COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE 417PROGRESS OF EARL. 418 419FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 420 421INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT 422 12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT 423 24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT 424 36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT 425 48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT 426 72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT 427 96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT 428120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT 429 430$$ 431FORECASTER AVILA 432 433 434WTNT42 KNHC 272030 435TCDAT2 436TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 437NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 438500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 439 440EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP 441CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 442CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL CONVECTIVE 443CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS DEVELOPING ON ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 444EARLIER ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES 445INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. GIVEN THE 446CURRENT POORLY ORGANIZED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS 447ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EARL WILL BE MOVING SOON OVER AN 448EVEN WARMER OCEAN AND UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MORE 449FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL 450TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY AND BECOME AN INTENSE ONE BY DAY 451FIVE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY 452FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION. 453 454ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO 455LOCATE. IT APPEARS THAT I WAS EITHER SLOW THIS MORNING OR EARL HAS 456ACCELERATED A LITTLE BIT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION 457IS 270 DEGREES OR WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE 458STEERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE 459NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WESTERN 460EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE 461WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. I FEEL A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN WITH THE 462NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN THIS FORECAST SINCE ALL TRACK GUIDANCE 463UNANIMOUSLY BEGIN TO MOVE EARL ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE 464BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT 465FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. 466WITH THE WEEKEND COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR 467THE PROGRESS OF EARL. 468 469 470FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 471 472INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.8N 46.0W 40 KT 473 12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.9N 48.7W 40 KT 474 24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.3N 52.2W 50 KT 475 36HR VT 29/0600Z 17.0N 55.5W 60 KT 476 48HR VT 29/1800Z 17.5N 58.0W 70 KT 477 72HR VT 30/1800Z 19.5N 62.2W 80 KT 478 96HR VT 31/1800Z 23.0N 65.0W 90 KT 479120HR VT 01/1800Z 27.0N 68.0W 100 KT 480 481$$ 482FORECASTER AVILA 483 484 485WTNT42 KNHC 280255 486TCDAT2 487TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 488NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 4891100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 490 491SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE 492WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER 493DEFINED...AND A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LOCATED NEAR OR JUST 494SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 45 KT 495FROM TAFB/SAB...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CLOUD 496PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE 497PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHEAR WILL 498CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE THAT SOME 499DRIER AIR IS LURKING NEAR THE CYCLONE. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST 500WILL BE A BIT BELOW MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36 501HOURS. THEREAFTER...EARL WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF A 502LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. 503THIS PATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY 504CONSIDERING THE 29C PLUS SSTS IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. THE 505GFDL/GFDN RESPOND TO THESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING EARL TO BECOME 506A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THE LONG-RANGE. WHILE THE NEW NHC 507FORECAST WILL NOT BE THAT AGGRESSIVE...IT IS INCREASED FROM THE 508PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ABOVE DYNAMICAL 509GUIDANCE AND THE LGEM MODEL. 510 511A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGESTS THE CENTER REMAINS A BIT 512ELONGATED...THUS CONFIDENCE IN MY INITIAL MOTION OF 275/18 IS LOWER 513THAN AVERAGE. A STRONG RIDGE BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE IS EXPECTED 514TO KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 515DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 516OF THE RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. 517ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE 518LEEWARD ISLANDS...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE EARL 519WILL COME. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST RIDGE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS 520AND MOVES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAN MOST OF 521THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE ANY 522CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS... 523ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED FASTER TOWARDS THE WEST THAN 524PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LEFT EDGE OF 525THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FIRST THREE DAYS...THEN IS JUST 526LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE END. 527 528RESIDENTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS 529OF EARL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY 530AS SATURDAY MORNING. 531 532 533FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 534 535INITIAL 28/0300Z 16.0N 47.9W 45 KT 536 12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.2N 50.7W 50 KT 537 24HR VT 29/0000Z 16.6N 54.0W 55 KT 538 36HR VT 29/1200Z 17.3N 56.8W 65 KT 539 48HR VT 30/0000Z 18.1N 59.1W 80 KT 540 72HR VT 31/0000Z 20.5N 63.0W 100 KT 541 96HR VT 01/0000Z 24.5N 66.0W 110 KT 542120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 68.5W 105 KT 543 544$$ 545FORECASTER BLAKE 546 547 548WTNT42 KNHC 280857 549TCDAT2 550TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 551NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 552500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 553 554EARL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN 555CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80 C AND A 556LARGE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THE 557CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER BUT 558REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK 559CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... 560RESPECTIVELY. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 56150 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 562 563A 0413 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EARL 564WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. USING 565A COMBINATION OF THIS OVERPASS AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS AN 566INITIAL MOTION OF 270/18. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE 567SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EARL ON A RATHER 568QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR 569TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO NEAR A BREAK IN THE 570RIDGE...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE 571GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE 572PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS OF THE 573TIMING...LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 574IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR 575THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND TRENDS TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL 576CONSENSUS. 577 578ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION 579DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS EARL MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS AND 580INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL 581FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND NOW 582BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND TO MAJOR 583HURRICANE STATUS IN 3 DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR 584IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND 585POSSIBLY INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 586OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY 587MODEL CONSENSUS. 588 589THE FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR 590PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. 591 592FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 593 594INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.7N 50.1W 50 KT 595 12HR VT 28/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 60 KT 596 24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.5N 55.7W 65 KT 597 36HR VT 29/1800Z 17.2N 58.3W 75 KT 598 48HR VT 30/0600Z 18.2N 60.5W 85 KT 599 72HR VT 31/0600Z 20.8N 64.2W 100 KT 600 96HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 67.5W 110 KT 601120HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 69.5W 100 KT 602 603$$ 604FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN 605 606 607WTNT42 KNHC 281436 608TCDAT2 609TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 610NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 6111100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 612 613ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE LARGE AND VIGOROUS AND THE 614AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...VISIBLE 615IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED ON 616THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED 617FROM SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF LARGER 618HURRICANE DANIELLE. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 619EARLIER TODAY...T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL 620INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. 621THE CURRENT NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SOON AS DANIELLE 622MOVES NORTHWARD AND...IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE 623UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION BY 624SUNDAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARM OCEAN ALONG 625THE TRACK...WOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION. EARL IS FORECAST TO 626BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY WITH A STEADY INTENSIFICATION 627THEREAFTER. 628 629EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 16 OR 17 630KNOTS STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 631HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...EARL WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN 632EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE 633WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND 48 634HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GUIDANCE 635ENVELOPE HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. 636NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN STILL FAVORS A 637GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AT 638THIS TIME...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 639FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT A DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO 640THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. 641 642A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION WILL PROBABLY CHECK THE SYSTEM 643LATER TODAY WHILE A NOAA GULFSTREAM JET SAMPLES THE ENVIRONMENT. 644THE FIRST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INTO EARL IS SCHEDULED 645FOR EARLY SUNDAY. 646 647 648 649FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 650 651INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.0N 51.8W 50 KT 652 12HR VT 29/0000Z 16.1N 54.3W 55 KT 653 24HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 65 KT 654 36HR VT 30/0000Z 17.8N 60.0W 75 KT 655 48HR VT 30/1200Z 18.7N 62.0W 85 KT 656 72HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 66.0W 95 KT 657 96HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 69.0W 100 KT 658120HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 71.0W 100 KT 659 660$$ 661FORECASTER AVILA 662 663 664WTNT42 KNHC 282042 665TCDAT2 666TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 667NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 668500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 669 670THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE 671SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE CENTER IS NOW TUCKED INTO THE 672CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EARL HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE VIGOROUS 673CIRCULATION AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND 674WEST DUE TO THE STILL PREVAILING NORTHERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS 675THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THE 676NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND BECAUSE THERE IS PLENTY 677OF VERY WARM WATERS ALONG 678THE TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A 679SIMILAR TREND INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL...AND MAKES EARL AN 680INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. 681 682EARL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE 683WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL BE 684APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO 685TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 686THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD 687AGREEMENT. DUE TO AN INITIAL MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TO 688THE WEST THAN INDICATED BY TRACK MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 689LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY 690DURING THE NEXT FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A 691SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS EARL MOVES NEAR OR OVER 692THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 693 694A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS EN ROUTE TO CHECK EARL AND 695WILL LIKELY GIVE US A BETTER MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND THE 696WIND RADII. 697 698 699 700FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 701 702INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.5N 54.2W 50 KT 703 12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.0N 57.0W 55 KT 704 24HR VT 29/1800Z 17.5N 59.5W 65 KT 705 36HR VT 30/0600Z 18.3N 61.8W 75 KT 706 48HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 63.5W 85 KT 707 72HR VT 31/1800Z 21.0N 67.0W 100 KT 708 96HR VT 01/1800Z 25.0N 70.5W 100 KT 709120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 72.5W 100 KT 710 711$$ 712FORECASTER AVILA 713 714 715WTNT42 KNHC 290314 716TCDAT2 717TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 718NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 7191100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 720 721A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO EARL REPORTED 722FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SUPPORTING A INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 723KT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 724FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 55 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 56 KT. 725THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 989 MB. 726WHILE EARL IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 727SHEAR...THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND 728ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 729 730THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. EARL IS APPROACHING THE END OF A 731LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATING IT FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE...WITH 732WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF 733CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LOW-LEVEL 734RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF EARL DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR... 735WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY 736STRENGTHENS. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEER EARL GENERALLY TOWARD 737THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD 738SPEED...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO TURN IT NORTHWARD AS IT 739APPROACHES. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE EARL TO 740MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A 741GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE TROUGH EXERTS A 742GREATER INFLUENCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE 743SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 12 HR BASED ON THE 744INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT...IT LIES A LITTLE TO LEFT 745OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS 746AND THE GFDL. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH 747OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 748 749THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE 750NEXT 24 HR AND ALLOW EARL TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS 751IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EARL SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72 752HR...IF NOT SOONER...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST. 753THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR...AS THERE 754ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SHEAR EARL 755WILL ENCOUNTER AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS 756AND ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW EARL TO MAINTAIN ITS 757STRENGTH...WHILE THE UKMET FORECASTS STRONG ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL 758WINDS TO CAUSE EARL TO SHEAR APART. AT THIS TIME...THE INTENSITY 759FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH SLOW WEAKENING 760AFTER 96 HR. 761 762THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED 763BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA. 764 765THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES HURRICANE WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR 766PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL 767WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY. 768 769FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 770 771INITIAL 29/0300Z 16.6N 55.4W 55 KT 772 12HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 60 KT 773 24HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 70 KT 774 36HR VT 30/1200Z 18.1N 62.0W 80 KT 775 48HR VT 31/0000Z 19.0N 63.9W 90 KT 776 72HR VT 01/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W 100 KT 777 96HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 71.0W 105 KT 778120HR VT 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.5W 100 KT 779 780$$ 781FORECASTER BEVEN 782 783 784WTNT42 KNHC 290842 785TCDAT2 786TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 787NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 788500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 789 790DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF EARL OVER 791THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED IN 792A LARGE BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. EARL APPEARS TO BE 793EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM 794HURRICANE DANIELLE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHERN 795SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT 796WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. 797 798THE SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING SOON AS DANIELLE CONTINUES MOVING 799AWAY...AND EARL SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL 800SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE 801GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS 802...AND REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 TO 96 HOURS. THE NHC 803INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE 804ICON CONSENSUS. 805 806THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY 807OVERNIGHT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/16 IS LARGELY 808BASED ON CONTINUITY. EARL WILL SOON REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN 809EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N...WHICH SHOULD 810RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN 811FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A 812BREAK DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 65 TO 70W AS THE 813LARGE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH DANIELLE LIFTS OUT TO THE 814NORTHEAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING EARL 815TURNING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THIS WEAKNESS IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...AND THEN 816ACCELERATING NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE 817FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS 818SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND IS 819FASTER LATE IN THE PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL 820CONSENSUS. 821 822ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN 823LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN 824TO DETERIORATE IN THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 825 826FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 827 828INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.9N 56.9W 55 KT 829 12HR VT 29/1800Z 17.3N 59.1W 65 KT 830 24HR VT 30/0600Z 17.9N 61.4W 70 KT 831 36HR VT 30/1800Z 18.7N 63.6W 80 KT 832 48HR VT 31/0600Z 19.9N 65.4W 90 KT 833 72HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W 100 KT 834 96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 72.0W 105 KT 835120HR VT 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 105 KT 836 837$$ 838FORECASTER BRENNAN 839 840 841WTNT42 KNHC 290314 842TCDAT2 843TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 844NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 8451100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 846 847A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO EARL REPORTED 848FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SUPPORTING A INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 849KT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 850FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 55 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 56 KT. 851THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 989 MB. 852WHILE EARL IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 853SHEAR...THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND 854ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 855 856THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. EARL IS APPROACHING THE END OF A 857LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATING IT FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE...WITH 858WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF 859CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LOW-LEVEL 860RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF EARL DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR... 861WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY 862STRENGTHENS. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEER EARL GENERALLY TOWARD 863THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD 864SPEED...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO TURN IT NORTHWARD AS IT 865APPROACHES. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE EARL TO 866MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A 867GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE TROUGH EXERTS A 868GREATER INFLUENCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE 869SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 12 HR BASED ON THE 870INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT...IT LIES A LITTLE TO LEFT 871OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS 872AND THE GFDL. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH 873OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 874 875THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE 876NEXT 24 HR AND ALLOW EARL TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS 877IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EARL SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72 878HR...IF NOT SOONER...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST. 879THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR...AS THERE 880ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SHEAR EARL 881WILL ENCOUNTER AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS 882AND ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW EARL TO MAINTAIN ITS 883STRENGTH...WHILE THE UKMET FORECASTS STRONG ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL 884WINDS TO CAUSE EARL TO SHEAR APART. AT THIS TIME...THE INTENSITY 885FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH SLOW WEAKENING 886AFTER 96 HR. 887 888THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED 889BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA. 890 891THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES HURRICANE WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR 892PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL 893WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY. 894 895FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 896 897INITIAL 29/0300Z 16.6N 55.4W 55 KT 89812HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 60 KT 89924HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 70 KT 90036HR VT 30/1200Z 18.1N 62.0W 80 KT 90148HR VT 31/0000Z 19.0N 63.9W 90 KT 90272HR VT 01/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W 100 KT 90396HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 71.0W 105 KT 904120HR VT 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.5W 100 KT 905 906$$ 907FORECASTER BEVEN 908 909 910 911 912WTNT42 KNHC 290842 913TCDAT2 914TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 915NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 916500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 917 918DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF EARL OVER 919THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED IN 920A LARGE BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. EARL APPEARS TO BE 921EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM 922HURRICANE DANIELLE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHERN 923SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT 924WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. 925 926THE SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING SOON AS DANIELLE CONTINUES MOVING 927AWAY...AND EARL SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL 928SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE 929GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS 930...AND REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 TO 96 HOURS. THE NHC 931INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE 932ICON CONSENSUS. 933 934THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY 935OVERNIGHT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/16 IS LARGELY 936BASED ON CONTINUITY. EARL WILL SOON REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN 937EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N...WHICH SHOULD 938RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN 939FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A 940BREAK DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 65 TO 70W AS THE 941LARGE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH DANIELLE LIFTS OUT TO THE 942NORTHEAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING EARL 943TURNING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THIS WEAKNESS IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...AND THEN 944ACCELERATING NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE 945FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS 946SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND IS 947FASTER LATE IN THE PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL 948CONSENSUS. 949 950ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN 951LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN 952TO DETERIORATE IN THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 953 954FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 955 956INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.9N 56.9W 55 KT 95712HR VT 29/1800Z 17.3N 59.1W 65 KT 95824HR VT 30/0600Z 17.9N 61.4W 70 KT 95936HR VT 30/1800Z 18.7N 63.6W 80 KT 96048HR VT 31/0600Z 19.9N 65.4W 90 KT 96172HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W 100 KT 96296HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 72.0W 105 KT 963120HR VT 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 105 KT 964 965$$ 966FORECASTER BRENNAN 967 968 969 970 971WTNT42 KNHC 291457 972TCDAT2 973HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 974NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 9751100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 976 977EARL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 978SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A 979DEVELOPING CDO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 980FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 98164 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORTED THE 982EARLIER UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS. 983 984NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...AND THE 985UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION 986DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS 987SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR 988THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...PREDICTING THAT 989EARL WILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER... 990THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL 991AND THE LOWER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. 992 993THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/15 KT. EARL IS 994EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES 995THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY 996OR SO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS 997AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A TROUGH IS 998FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN 999A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT 1000THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REGIONAL HURRICANE 1001MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE 1002OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD 1003THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. 1004 1005PERSONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE HURRICANE IS 1006NOT A POINT SINCE HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. 1007 1008 1009FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1010 1011INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.2N 58.4W 65 KT 1012 12HR VT 30/0000Z 17.6N 60.4W 75 KT 1013 24HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT 1014 36HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.5W 100 KT 1015 48HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.3W 105 KT 1016 72HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 69.8W 110 KT 1017 96HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 110 KT 1018120HR VT 03/1200Z 37.0N 71.5W 100 KT 1019 1020$$ 1021FORECASTER BROWN/BERG 1022 1023 1024WTNT42 KNHC 292052 1025TCDAT2 1026HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 1027NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1028500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 1029 1030THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EARL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT 1031THE DAY. SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SURROUNDING 1032A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THERE ARE NO HINTS OF AN EYE IN 1033VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER AN EYE IS APPARENT IN RECENT RADAR 1034IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE AND WAS ALSO REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT A 1035FEW HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH THE PLANE DID NOT FIND HIGHER FLIGHT-LEVEL 1036OR SFMR WINDS THAN IT DID THIS MORNING...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE 1037REPORTED WAS LOWER ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 978 MB. 1038BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... 1039AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES...THE ADVISORY 1040INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT. A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ON A 1041RESEARCH MISSION SHOULD BE IN EARL SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT 1042AIR FORCE C-130 MISSION BETWEEN 0000 AND 0600 UTC. 1043 1044THE CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT TODAY YIELD AN INITIAL 1045MOTION OF ABOUT 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE FORECAST 1046REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EARL IS 1047EXPECTED TO BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 1048SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HURRICANE 1049SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 36-48 HOURS. EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN 1050NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO 1051GREAT LAKES REGION IN 4-5 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES 1052WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES IN 1053THE FORWARD SPEED OF EARL AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN 1054FASTER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF AND THE OFFICIAL CONTINUES TO BE FASTER 1055THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 72 HOURS. 1056 1057THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 1058FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL 1059ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL 1060MODELS SHOW EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO 1061AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. LATE IN THE FORECAST 1062PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 1063OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY 1064SHEAR. 1065 1066 1067FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1068 1069INITIAL 29/2100Z 17.6N 59.5W 75 KT 1070 12HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 61.3W 90 KT 1071 24HR VT 30/1800Z 18.9N 63.3W 100 KT 1072 36HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 65.1W 110 KT 1073 48HR VT 31/1800Z 22.1N 66.9W 115 KT 1074 72HR VT 01/1800Z 27.3N 70.2W 115 KT 1075 96HR VT 02/1800Z 33.5N 71.5W 105 KT 1076120HR VT 03/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W 90 KT 1077 1078$$ 1079FORECASTER BROWN/BERG 1080 1081 1082WTNT42 KNHC 300236 1083TCDAT2 1084HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 1085NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 10861100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 1087 1088EARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIR FORCE 1089HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND 1090SPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL 1091WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE 1092SURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR. BASED ON THESE 1093OBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. IMAGES FROM 1094THE GUADELOUPE AND ST. MARTIN RADARS SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE ABOUT 109530 N MI IN DIAMETER WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED 1096THAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR 1097IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER 1098THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REMAINDER 1099OF THE CIRCULATION. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY 1100SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 1101AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS 1102SHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE 1103OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A 1104MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC WIND SPEED 1105FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE 1106LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. 1107 1108INITIAL MOTION...285/13...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS 1109ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE 1110IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 1111OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE. BY DAYS 3 TO 4...THE HEADING 1112AND FORWARD SPEED OF EARL ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DETAILS OF THE 1113EVOLUTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE 1114GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MORE THAN THE OTHER 1115DYNAMICAL MODELS AND MOVE EARL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE 1116NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SHARPER EASTWARD TURN THAN THE OTHER 1117GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE 1118GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 1119 1120THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON 1121DYNAMICAL...MAINLY GLOBAL MODEL...GUIDANCE. 1122 1123FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1124 1125INITIAL 30/0300Z 17.9N 61.1W 85 KT 1126 12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT 1127 24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.6W 100 KT 1128 36HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.4W 110 KT 1129 48HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 115 KT 1130 72HR VT 02/0000Z 27.5N 71.5W 115 KT 1131 96HR VT 03/0000Z 34.0N 72.0W 100 KT 1132120HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 67.0W 85 KT 1133 1134$$ 1135FORECASTER PASCH 1136 1137 1138WTNT42 KNHC 300845 1139TCDAT2 1140HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 1141NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1142500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 1143 1144SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED JUST PRIOR TO 0600 UTC...AN EYE HAS BEEN 1145OCCASIONALLY APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND HAS BECOME 1146BETTER DEFINED WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 25 NM ON THE ST. MAARTEN 1147RADAR. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 97 KT 1148AT 0510 UTC...AND 0600 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 90 KT 1149FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 1150SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING IN THE 1151NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND IS GOOD ELSEWHERE...AND THE OVERALL 1152ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 115336 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 1154ONE...AND SHOWS EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12 1155TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND 115672 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT 1157MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 1158THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL. 1159 1160BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 1161REMAINS 285/13. EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 1162THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE 1163SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS 1164IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 1165NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 116624 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED 1167FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS 1168NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING 1169FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE LARGE 1170SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 1171THE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 1172GUIDANCE SUITE. 1173 1174THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK 1175FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS 1176UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF 1177THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS 1178WEEK. 1179 1180FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1181 1182INITIAL 30/0900Z 18.3N 62.4W 90 KT 1183 12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.1N 64.0W 95 KT 1184 24HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 66.0W 105 KT 1185 36HR VT 31/1800Z 21.9N 67.8W 115 KT 1186 48HR VT 01/0600Z 24.0N 69.6W 115 KT 1187 72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 73.0W 115 KT 1188 96HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 72.5W 100 KT 1189120HR VT 04/0600Z 42.0N 65.5W 85 KT 1190 1191$$ 1192FORECASTER BRENNAN 1193 1194 1195WTNT42 KNHC 301450 1196TCDAT2 1197HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 1198NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 11991100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 1200 1201THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE 1202IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM BOTH 1203SAN JUAN AND ST. MAARTEN. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 1204MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT IN THE NORTHEAST 1205EYEWALL AROUND 1200 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT SAMPLED THE 1206NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AGAIN...BUT FOUND 90 KT SFMR WINDS IN THE 1207NORTHWEST EYEWALL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 960 MB. THIS SUPPORTS 1208INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT...CATEGORY THREE ON THE 1209SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER 1210ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL 1211STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING EARL 1212AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL 1213CYCLES COULD INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL 1214FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE 1215FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE 1216WEAKENING. 1217 1218THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD 1219THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE 1220WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 1221DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN 1222NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE 1223GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS. THE 1224TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 1225HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS 1226NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. 1227 1228THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK 1229FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS 1230UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S. 1231EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL. 1232 1233 1234FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1235 1236INITIAL 30/1500Z 18.7N 63.6W 105 KT 1237 12HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 65.1W 115 KT 1238 24HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 125 KT 1239 36HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.7W 125 KT 1240 48HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 70.6W 120 KT 1241 72HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 73.5W 110 KT 1242 96HR VT 03/1200Z 37.5N 71.5W 100 KT 1243120HR VT 04/1200Z 45.5N 63.0W 75 KT...INLAND 1244 1245$$ 1246FORECASTER BROWN/BERG 1247 1248 1249WTNT42 KNHC 291457 1250TCDAT2 1251HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 1252NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 12531100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 1254 1255EARL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 1256SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A 1257DEVELOPING CDO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 1258FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 125964 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORTED THE 1260EARLIER UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS. 1261 1262NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...AND THE 1263UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION 1264DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS 1265SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR 1266THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...PREDICTING THAT 1267EARL WILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER... 1268THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL 1269AND THE LOWER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. 1270 1271THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/15 KT. EARL IS 1272EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES 1273THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY 1274OR SO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS 1275AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A TROUGH IS 1276FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN 1277A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT 1278THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REGIONAL HURRICANE 1279MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE 1280OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD 1281THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. 1282 1283PERSONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE HURRICANE IS 1284NOT A POINT SINCE HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. 1285 1286 1287FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1288 1289INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.2N 58.4W 65 KT 129012HR VT 30/0000Z 17.6N 60.4W 75 KT 129124HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT 129236HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.5W 100 KT 129348HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.3W 105 KT 129472HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 69.8W 110 KT 129596HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 110 KT 1296120HR VT 03/1200Z 37.0N 71.5W 100 KT 1297 1298$$ 1299FORECASTER BROWN/BERG 1300 1301 1302 1303 1304WTNT42 KNHC 292052 1305TCDAT2 1306HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 1307NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1308500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 1309 1310THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EARL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT 1311THE DAY. SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SURROUNDING 1312A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THERE ARE NO HINTS OF AN EYE IN 1313VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER AN EYE IS APPARENT IN RECENT RADAR 1314IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE AND WAS ALSO REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT A 1315FEW HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH THE PLANE DID NOT FIND HIGHER FLIGHT-LEVEL 1316OR SFMR WINDS THAN IT DID THIS MORNING...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE 1317REPORTED WAS LOWER ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 978 MB. 1318BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... 1319AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES...THE ADVISORY 1320INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT. A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ON A 1321RESEARCH MISSION SHOULD BE IN EARL SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT 1322AIR FORCE C-130 MISSION BETWEEN 0000 AND 0600 UTC. 1323 1324THE CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT TODAY YIELD AN INITIAL 1325MOTION OF ABOUT 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE FORECAST 1326REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EARL IS 1327EXPECTED TO BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 1328SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HURRICANE 1329SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 36-48 HOURS. EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN 1330NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO 1331GREAT LAKES REGION IN 4-5 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES 1332WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES IN 1333THE FORWARD SPEED OF EARL AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN 1334FASTER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF AND THE OFFICIAL CONTINUES TO BE FASTER 1335THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 72 HOURS. 1336 1337THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 1338FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL 1339ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL 1340MODELS SHOW EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO 1341AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. LATE IN THE FORECAST 1342PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 1343OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY 1344SHEAR. 1345 1346 1347FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1348 1349INITIAL 29/2100Z 17.6N 59.5W 75 KT 135012HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 61.3W 90 KT 135124HR VT 30/1800Z 18.9N 63.3W 100 KT 135236HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 65.1W 110 KT 135348HR VT 31/1800Z 22.1N 66.9W 115 KT 135472HR VT 01/1800Z 27.3N 70.2W 115 KT 135596HR VT 02/1800Z 33.5N 71.5W 105 KT 1356120HR VT 03/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W 90 KT 1357 1358$$ 1359FORECASTER BROWN/BERG 1360 1361 1362 1363 1364WTNT42 KNHC 300236 1365TCDAT2 1366HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 1367NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 13681100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 1369 1370EARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIR FORCE 1371HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND 1372SPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL 1373WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE 1374SURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR. BASED ON THESE 1375OBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. IMAGES FROM 1376THE GUADELOUPE AND ST. MARTIN RADARS SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE ABOUT 137730 N MI IN DIAMETER WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED 1378THAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR 1379IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER 1380THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REMAINDER 1381OF THE CIRCULATION. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY 1382SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 1383AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS 1384SHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE 1385OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A 1386MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC WIND SPEED 1387FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE 1388LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. 1389 1390INITIAL MOTION...285/13...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS 1391ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE 1392IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 1393OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE. BY DAYS 3 TO 4...THE HEADING 1394AND FORWARD SPEED OF EARL ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DETAILS OF THE 1395EVOLUTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE 1396GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MORE THAN THE OTHER 1397DYNAMICAL MODELS AND MOVE EARL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE 1398NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SHARPER EASTWARD TURN THAN THE OTHER 1399GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE 1400GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 1401 1402THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON 1403DYNAMICAL...MAINLY GLOBAL MODEL...GUIDANCE. 1404 1405FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1406 1407INITIAL 30/0300Z 17.9N 61.1W 85 KT 140812HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT 140924HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.6W 100 KT 141036HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.4W 110 KT 141148HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 115 KT 141272HR VT 02/0000Z 27.5N 71.5W 115 KT 141396HR VT 03/0000Z 34.0N 72.0W 100 KT 1414120HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 67.0W 85 KT 1415 1416$$ 1417FORECASTER PASCH 1418 1419 1420 1421000 1422 1423WTNT42 KNHC 300845 1424TCDAT2 1425HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 1426NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1427500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 1428 1429SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED JUST PRIOR TO 0600 UTC...AN EYE HAS BEEN 1430OCCASIONALLY APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND HAS BECOME 1431BETTER DEFINED WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 25 NM ON THE ST. MAARTEN 1432RADAR. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 97 KT 1433AT 0510 UTC...AND 0600 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 90 KT 1434FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 1435SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING IN THE 1436NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND IS GOOD ELSEWHERE...AND THE OVERALL 1437ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 143836 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 1439ONE...AND SHOWS EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12 1440TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND 144172 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT 1442MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 1443THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL. 1444 1445BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 1446REMAINS 285/13. EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 1447THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE 1448SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS 1449IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 1450NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 145124 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED 1452FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS 1453NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING 1454FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE LARGE 1455SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 1456THE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 1457GUIDANCE SUITE. 1458 1459THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK 1460FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS 1461UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF 1462THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS 1463WEEK. 1464 1465FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1466 1467INITIAL 30/0900Z 18.3N 62.4W 90 KT 146812HR VT 30/1800Z 19.1N 64.0W 95 KT 146924HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 66.0W 105 KT 147036HR VT 31/1800Z 21.9N 67.8W 115 KT 147148HR VT 01/0600Z 24.0N 69.6W 115 KT 147272HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 73.0W 115 KT 147396HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 72.5W 100 KT 1474120HR VT 04/0600Z 42.0N 65.5W 85 KT 1475 1476$$ 1477FORECASTER BRENNAN 1478 1479 1480 1481 1482WTNT42 KNHC 301450 1483TCDAT2 1484HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 1485NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 14861100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 1487 1488THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE 1489IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM BOTH 1490SAN JUAN AND ST. MAARTEN. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 1491MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT IN THE NORTHEAST 1492EYEWALL AROUND 1200 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT SAMPLED THE 1493NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AGAIN...BUT FOUND 90 KT SFMR WINDS IN THE 1494NORTHWEST EYEWALL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 960 MB. THIS SUPPORTS 1495INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT...CATEGORY THREE ON THE 1496SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER 1497ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL 1498STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING EARL 1499AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL 1500CYCLES COULD INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL 1501FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE 1502FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE 1503WEAKENING. 1504 1505THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD 1506THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE 1507WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 1508DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN 1509NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE 1510GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS. THE 1511TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 1512HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS 1513NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. 1514 1515THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK 1516FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS 1517UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S. 1518EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL. 1519 1520 1521FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1522 1523INITIAL 30/1500Z 18.7N 63.6W 105 KT 152412HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 65.1W 115 KT 152524HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 125 KT 152636HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.7W 125 KT 152748HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 70.6W 120 KT 152872HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 73.5W 110 KT 152996HR VT 03/1200Z 37.5N 71.5W 100 KT 1530120HR VT 04/1200Z 45.5N 63.0W 75 KT...INLAND 1531 1532$$ 1533FORECASTER BROWN/BERG 1534 1535 1536 1537 1538WTNT42 KNHC 302047 1539TCDAT2 1540HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 1541NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1542500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 1543 1544THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND 1545108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC. THIS WAS THE 1546BASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE 1547PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST 1548DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT 1549DEPARTED EARL...THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY 1550CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE 1551INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK 1552SCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT...CATEGORY FOUR ON 1553THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. 1554 1555EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM 1556WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 1557LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER...EYEWALL CYCLES WILL LIKELY 1558INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO 1559PREDICT. THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE 1560INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO 1561MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR WHICH 1562SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. 1563 1564THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS 1565UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 1566HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 1567TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 156848 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 1569ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD... 1570PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE 1571MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 1572 1573THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK 1574FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS 1575UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S. 1576EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL. 1577 1578FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1579 1580INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.3N 64.7W 115 KT 1581 12HR VT 31/0600Z 20.2N 66.3W 125 KT 1582 24HR VT 31/1800Z 21.7N 68.1W 130 KT 1583 36HR VT 01/0600Z 23.4N 70.1W 130 KT 1584 48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.1W 125 KT 1585 72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.6N 74.7W 115 KT 1586 96HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 71.0W 95 KT 1587120HR VT 04/1800Z 45.5N 63.0W 70 KT...INLAND 1588 1589$$ 1590FORECASTER BROWN 1591 1592 1593WTNT42 KNHC 310250 1594TCDAT2 1595HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 1596NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 15971100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 1598 1599THE INTENSITY OF EARL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR THE TIME 1600BEING. DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE 1601HUNTERS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 1602FEW HOURS. THERE WAS ALSO AN UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND 1603OF 111 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS 1604ADVISORY. WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT A 1605CONCENTRIC EYEWALL OR CONVECTIVE RING MAY BE FORMING. THIS WOULD 1606AT LEAST TEMPORARILY HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR 1607IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE 1608NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL 1609LOW TO CUT OFF FROM THE TROUGH AND MOVE SOUTHWARD...WHICH IS AN 1610UPPER-LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION THAT IS USUALLY CONDUCIVE FOR 1611STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER THE GFS PREDICTS AROUND 18-20 KT OF 1612SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER EARL IN 24-48 HOURS. THE 1613OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS 1614ONE...AND SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 1615ALSO...SOME OSCILLATIONS IN INTENSIYY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS 1616OR OTHER INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. 1617 1618THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OF EARL BUT THE MEAN 1619MOTION HAS BEEN ABOUT 300/12 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN 1620TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS EARL MOVES 1621AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY DAY 16223...A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES 1623ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC 1624TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE AN EASTWARD 1625COMPONENT OF STEERING BY DAY 4...AND EARL IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE 1626NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE END OF THE 1627FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN RATHER CLOSE 1628AGREEMENT UP TO 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AFTER THAT 1629FORECAST TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN... 1630SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE 1631TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 1632 1633INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR 1634THE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS 1635TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. 1636 1637FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1638 1639INITIAL 31/0300Z 19.9N 65.8W 115 KT 1640 12HR VT 31/1200Z 20.9N 67.2W 120 KT 1641 24HR VT 01/0000Z 22.6N 69.2W 120 KT 1642 36HR VT 01/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 1643 48HR VT 02/0000Z 26.9N 73.4W 120 KT 1644 72HR VT 03/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 110 KT 1645 96HR VT 04/0000Z 38.5N 70.5W 90 KT 1646120HR VT 05/0000Z 46.0N 62.0W 60 KT 1647 1648$$ 1649FORECASTER PASCH 1650 1651 1652WTNT42 KNHC 310902 1653TCDAT2 1654HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 1655NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1656500 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 1657 1658AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLIER REPORTED 1659700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 124 KT...AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS 1660OF 112 KT FROM THE SFMR. THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL 1661PRESSURE OF 931 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET 1662AT 115 KT. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...A TRMM OVERPASS AND DATA FROM 1663THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D RADAR INDICATE THAT EARL HAS STARTED AN 1664EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL 1665ARRIVE IN EARL NEAR 12Z TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY 1666FOR NOW. 1667 1668THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 295/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO 1669THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EARL 1670SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO ON THE 1671SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE 1672HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE 1673RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION 1674ON THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE 1675NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY 1676CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK 1677DIRECTIONS BETWEEN THE LEFT-MOST HWRF AND THE RIGHT-MOST GFS 1678ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF 1679THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES JUST LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE 1680ENVELOPE. 1681 1682THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFDL AND GFDN 1683MODELS SUGGEST THAT EARL COULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR 1684SO...AND THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE HURRICANE COMPLETES THE EYEWALL 1685REPLACEMENT QUICKLY ENOUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...EARL IS FORECAST 1686TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND 1687SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR 1688APPROACHING THE HURRICANE FROM THE NORTH. THESE FACTORS COULD 1689PREVENT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL 1690FOLLOW THE GFDL/GFDN SCENARIO WITH A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING 1691DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BASED ON THE HURRICANE COMPLETING THE 1692EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THE DRY AIR NOT REACHING THE HURRICANE 1693CORE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES EARL OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE 1694TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD 1695CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 1696 1697INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR 1698THE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS 1699TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. 1700 1701FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1702 1703INITIAL 31/0900Z 20.5N 66.7W 115 KT 1704 12HR VT 31/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 120 KT 1705 24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.3N 70.3W 120 KT 1706 36HR VT 01/1800Z 25.5N 72.3W 120 KT 1707 48HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 73.8W 115 KT 1708 72HR VT 03/0600Z 33.5N 74.5W 105 KT 1709 96HR VT 04/0600Z 40.0N 69.5W 85 KT 1710120HR VT 05/0600Z 48.0N 60.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1711 1712$$ 1713FORECASTER BEVEN 1714 1715 1716WTNT42 KNHC 311457 1717TCDAT2 1718HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 1719NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 17201100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 1721 1722THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THIS IS REFLECTED 1723IN A DECREASE IN THE DVORAK NUMBERS AND IN AN INCREASE IN THE 1724PRESSURE TO 939 MB. THIS APPARENT WEAKENING IS MOST LIKELY RELATED 1725TO AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS INDICATED BY THE DOUBLE 1726EYE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA AT 1035 UTC. HOWEVER...AN 1727AVERAGE OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE 1728RECONNAISSANCE PLANE STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 1729KNOTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS A 1730CHANCE FOR EARL TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF 1731THE OUTER EYEWALL SHRINKS. DESPITE THE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY... 1732EARL MOST LIKELY WILL RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THE NEXT 48 1733HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR 1734INCREASES. 1735 1736EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WOBBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE 1737AVERAGE MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 1738KNOTS. EARL HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 1739EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE 1740ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP EARL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST 1741TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE 1742SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH AND 1743NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 1744UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE 1745DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE 1746WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS AND IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE 1747ENVELOPE. 1748 1749GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A 1750HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE 1751MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS 1752NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. 1753THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE 1754HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. 1755 1756 1757FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1758 1759INITIAL 31/1500Z 21.2N 67.9W 115 KT 1760 12HR VT 01/0000Z 22.3N 69.7W 115 KT 1761 24HR VT 01/1200Z 24.8N 71.7W 120 KT 1762 36HR VT 02/0000Z 27.3N 73.5W 115 KT 1763 48HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 75.0W 115 KT 1764 72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 100 KT 1765 96HR VT 04/1200Z 43.5N 66.0W 80 KT 1766120HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 57.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1767 1768$$ 1769FORECASTER AVILA 1770 1771 1772WTNT42 KNHC 312043 1773TCDAT2 1774HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 1775NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1776500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 1777 1778ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 1779EARLIER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AROUND 1700 UTC REPORTED A MINIMUM 1780PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 128 KNOTS. 1781THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. 1782CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING THE 1783UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL. THIS SHEAR 1784IS CAUSED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS 1785OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. HOWEVER...MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER 1786LOW AS EARL MOVES AROUND IT...RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE 1787ENVIRONMENT. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY FOUR 1788INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 1789 1790EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR 179113 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS 1792STEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO 1793GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER 1794THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORE 1795NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 1796THEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES 1797AND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN 1798FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK 1799GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEW 1800MILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF 1801AND THE GFS. 1802 1803GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 1804EARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANE 1805AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID- 1806ATLANTIC COAST. 1807 1808INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE 1809PROGRESS OF EARL. 1810 1811FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1812 1813INITIAL 31/2100Z 22.0N 68.8W 115 KT 1814 12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.3N 70.5W 115 KT 1815 24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 72.8W 115 KT 1816 36HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 74.5W 115 KT 1817 48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 75.5W 115 KT 1818 72HR VT 03/1800Z 36.0N 73.5W 95 KT 1819 96HR VT 04/1800Z 44.0N 65.0W 75 KT 1820120HR VT 05/1800Z 56.0N 55.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1821 1822$$ 1823FORECASTER AVILA 1824 1825 1826WTNT42 KNHC 010248 1827TCDAT2 1828HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 1829NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 18301100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 1831 1832EARL REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. AN EYE 1833OF ABOUT 20 N MI IN DIAMETER IS EVIDENT ON THE INFRARED IMAGES... 1834AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER ALL BUT THE 1835SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CIRCULATION...AS CONFIRMED BY SURVELLIANCE 1836DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 1837KEPT AT 115 KT BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THERE IS 1838CURRENTLY ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EARL AS DEPICTED 1839BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THIS SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL 1840TROUGH...JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...IS 1841PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY 1842OR SO. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW 1843EARL TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 1844HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE ABOVE THE 1845STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE BELOW THE GFDL 1846HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. BY DAY 4...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW EARL 1847BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH WELL-DEFINED THERMAL 1848ADVECTION SO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED BY THAT 1849TIME. 1850 1851THE TRACK HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE HURRICANES BUT 1852THE MEAN MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS ABOUT 310/13. THERE HAS 1853BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EARL IS 1854EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE 1855WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE 1856NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARDS...A VIGOROUS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH 1857AT 500 MB WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD CAUSE THE 1858HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. OF COURSE...THE 1859TIMING OF THIS TURN IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER 1860WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE 1861EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO 1862BECAUSE EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN BE 1863WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. 1864 1865FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1866 1867INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.0N 69.9W 115 KT 1868 12HR VT 01/1200Z 24.5N 71.6W 115 KT 1869 24HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 73.5W 115 KT 1870 36HR VT 02/1200Z 29.8N 75.0W 115 KT 1871 48HR VT 03/0000Z 32.7N 75.2W 110 KT 1872 72HR VT 04/0000Z 39.0N 70.5W 90 KT 1873 96HR VT 05/0000Z 47.0N 62.0W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1874120HR VT 06/0000Z 56.0N 58.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1875 1876$$ 1877FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN 1878 1879 1880WTNT42 KNHC 010903 1881TCDAT2 1882HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 1883NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1884500 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 1885 1886THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING 1887THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A 1888LITTLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 1889CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 941 MB...WHICH IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER. 1890HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 116 KT...WHICH WAS 1891LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM 1892THE SFMR WERE UNDER 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 1893110 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. 1894 1895EARL IS MOVING 310-315 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KT. FOR THE NEXT 36 OR 1896SO...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD 1897ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL 1898ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN 1899NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE END OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERS 1900THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE 1901NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 1902AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SMALL 1903DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT COULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS 1904IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE GFDN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET FORECAST THE 1905CENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND NEW 1906ENGLAND. THE OTHER MODELS ARE FARTHER TO THE EAST...KEEPING THE 1907CENTER OFFSHORE. THROUGH 48 HR...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR 1908TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA 1909COAST...AND LIES JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 1910AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE 1911WEST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK DOES LIKEWISE TO BE IN THE CENTER 1912OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE NEW 1913ENGLAND STATES THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 1914 1915THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM. ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE...THE 1916HURRICANE IS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAS GOOD 1917CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND HAS A 1918GOOD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...EARL IS 1919EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND 1920WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR 1921WRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CYCLONE. SOME SHEAR IS LIKELY 1922TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY 1923GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. BASED ON 1924THIS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN 1925STRENGTH FOR 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS EARL ENCOUNTERS 1926COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR. EARL IS 1927EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. 1928 1929HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH 1930CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. 1931 1932FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1933 1934INITIAL 01/0900Z 24.0N 71.2W 110 KT 1935 12HR VT 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.9W 110 KT 1936 24HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 74.6W 110 KT 1937 36HR VT 02/1800Z 31.3N 75.2W 110 KT 1938 48HR VT 03/0600Z 34.6N 74.4W 105 KT 1939 72HR VT 04/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W 85 KT 1940 96HR VT 05/0600Z 50.0N 61.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1941120HR VT 06/0600Z 57.0N 58.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1942 1943$$ 1944FORECASTER BEVEN 1945 1946 1947WTNT42 KNHC 011455 1948TCDAT2 1949HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 1950NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 19511100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 1952 1953 1954VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT EARL HAS A DISTINCT 1955EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. A BLEND BETWEEN 1956SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE 1957PLANE SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL 110 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT 1958SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WHICH SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR SINCE 1959YESTERDAY AND THE WARM OCEAN ALONG THE TRACK OF EARL...THERE IS A 1960POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. 1961HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL 1962SHOWS A STEADY STATE OR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 1963TWO...AND THIS TREND IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER 196448 HOURS...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND 1965ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR RESULTING IN WEAKENING. BY DAY 5 THE 1966HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL 1967CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA. 1968 1969SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE 1970INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. 1971THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING EARL TOWARD THE 1972NORTHWEST IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LATER TODAY...EARL 1973SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING GRADUALLY 1974NORTHWARD. IN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE 1975BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR 1976TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE 1977SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL 1978PASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH 1979CAROLINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION 1980TO THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE 1981TO THE COAST. 1982 1983GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH A 1984EARL...A HURRICANE WARNING WAS REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH 1985CAROLINA COAST. 1986 1987 1988FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1989 1990INITIAL 01/1500Z 25.1N 72.1W 110 KT 1991 12HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 73.7W 110 KT 1992 24HR VT 02/1200Z 29.8N 75.0W 110 KT 1993 36HR VT 03/0000Z 32.8N 75.2W 110 KT 1994 48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 73.6W 100 KT 1995 72HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 66.0W 70 KT 1996 96HR VT 05/1200Z 55.0N 60.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1997120HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 1998 1999$$ 2000FORECASTER AVILA 2001 2002 2003WTNT42 KNHC 012051 2004TCDAT2 2005HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 2006NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 2007500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 2008 2009VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY 2010DISTINCT...WITH OJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 FOR THE 2011PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 2012138 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB IN THE LAST FIX. 2013HOWEVER...SFMR MEASUREMENTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER. A COMPROMISE OF 2014THESE DATA SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. 2015HOWEVER...EARL COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 201624 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES 2017COOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS. BY DAY 5 2018THE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL 2019CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA. 2020 2021SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL 2022HAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES 2023AT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2024THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE 2025NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36 2026HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE 2027MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE 2028NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION 2029CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO 2030THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON 2031THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE 2032WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST. 2033 2034GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...AND 2035THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WATCHES HAVE 2036BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. 2037 2038 2039FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2040 2041INITIAL 01/2100Z 26.3N 73.3W 115 KT 2042 12HR VT 02/0600Z 28.4N 74.7W 115 KT 2043 24HR VT 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.4W 110 KT 2044 36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 74.7W 100 KT 2045 48HR VT 03/1800Z 38.5N 72.2W 90 KT 2046 72HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 63.5W 60 KT 2047 96HR VT 05/1800Z 58.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2048120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED 2049 2050$$ 2051FORECASTER AVILA 2052 2053 2054WTNT42 KNHC 020259 2055TCDAT2 2056HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 2057NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 20581100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 2059 2060ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE OF EARL HAS 2061BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AND THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE 2062COOLED. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE 2063HURRICANE FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 2064SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THEY MEASURED WINDS TO 137 KT JUST NORTH OF THE 2065CENTER AT A FLIGHT LEVEL JUST BELOW 7000 FT. REDUCING THIS WIND 2066SPEED FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SURFACE YIELDS ABOUT 2067120 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. SOME 2068FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE CHANGES ARE LIKELY ON 2069THURSDAY. EARL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT 2070ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEREFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A 2071DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...EARL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE 2072STATUS WHEN IT IS NEAREST TO...OR POSSIBLY OVER...THE OUTER BANKS. 2073THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE LATEST 2074STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. 2075 2076THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE WOBBLED NORTHWARD A COUPLE OF HOURS 2077AGO...HOWEVER THE MEAN MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 330/16. NO 2078SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR 2079SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH 2080THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS NUDGED EASTWARD ABOUT 20 N 2081MI ON THIS CYCLE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE 2082NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN 2083PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 2084THEREAFTER...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES 2085SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND 2086ACCELERATE. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF 2087THIS LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY 2088TO BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. 2089 2090FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2091 2092INITIAL 02/0300Z 27.8N 73.8W 120 KT 2093 12HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 75.1W 120 KT 2094 24HR VT 03/0000Z 33.2N 75.2W 110 KT 2095 36HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.7W 100 KT 2096 48HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W 85 KT 2097 72HR VT 05/0000Z 48.5N 61.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2098 96HR VT 06/0000Z 57.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2099120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED 2100 2101$$ 2102FORECASTER PASCH 2103 2104 2105WTNT42 KNHC 020907 2106TCDAT2 2107HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 2108NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 2109500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 2110 2111AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 140 KT WINDS 2112AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL. AN EYE DROPSONDE REPORTED A 2113SURFACE PRESSURE OF 929 MB WITH A WIND OF 25 KT...SUGGESTING A 2114CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 928 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL 2115INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. EARL IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK 2116INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS BECOMING A 2117LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. 2118 2119THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE 2120FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR. 2121EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE 2122END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK 2123MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...AND THE 2124NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER. AFTER 48 HR...THE 2125GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION 2126OF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL 2127TRANSITION. THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT 2128STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 2129 2130THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT 2131INTENSITY FOR 12 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND 2132SHEAR AND MOTION OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD 2133CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AT 2134ABOUT 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...WITH THE REMNANTS OF EARL 2135BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW BY 96 HR. 2136 2137FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2138 2139INITIAL 02/0900Z 29.3N 74.7W 125 KT 2140 12HR VT 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.3W 125 KT 2141 24HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.6W 115 KT 2142 36HR VT 03/1800Z 38.1N 72.6W 100 KT 2143 48HR VT 04/0600Z 41.6N 69.2W 85 KT 2144 72HR VT 05/0600Z 50.5N 62.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2145 96HR VT 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW 2146 2147$$ 2148FORECASTER BEVEN 2149 2150 2151WTNT42 KNHC 021456 2152TCDAT2 2153HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 2154NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 21551100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 2156 2157THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL 2158DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT 2159AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND 2160FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT 2161EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 2162AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE 2163THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS. EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY 2164REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN 2165GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN 2166FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS...AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN. EARL 2167SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS 2168IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 2169 2170AS ANTICIPATED...EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 217116 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...EARL IS 2172FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE 2173HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE 2174WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 2175AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN 2176HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE 2177OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE. 2178 2179 2180FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2181 2182INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.9N 74.8W 120 KT 2183 12HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT 2184 24HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W 100 KT 2185 36HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W 85 KT 2186 48HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 65 KT 2187 72HR VT 05/1200Z 53.5N 62.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2188 96HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW 2189 2190$$ 2191FORECASTER AVILA 2192 2193 2194WTNT42 KNHC 022039 2195TCDAT2 2196HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 2197NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 2198500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 2199 2200DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A 2201LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947 2202MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS 2203SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL 2204SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE 2205HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER 2206A COLDER OCEAN. AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD 2207BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS 2208ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 2209 2210SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL 2211HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE 2212STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE 2213CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN 2214PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE 2215MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE 2216NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 2217 2218ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL 2219CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE. 2220 2221 2222FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2223 2224INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.5N 75.2W 100 KT 2225 12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.8W 95 KT 2226 24HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 72.7W 85 KT 2227 36HR VT 04/0600Z 41.7N 69.0W 75 KT 2228 48HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2229 72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED 2230 2231$$ 2232FORECASTER AVILA 2233 2234 2235WTNT42 KNHC 030241 2236TCDAT2 2237HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 2238NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 22391100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 2240 2241DATA FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING SHOW THAT EARL HAS 2242CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 MB. 2243THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 111 KT...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST 2244SURFACE WIND MEASURED RECENTLY BY THE SFMR WAS 84 KT...AND DROPSONDE 2245DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WINDS IN THE 80 TO 90 KT RANGE. 2246BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 90 2247KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALONG WITH MICROWAVE 2248IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE OLD INNER EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED...AND A 2249LARGER 50 N MI WIDE EYE IS NOW REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE 2250IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM MOREHEAD CITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 225120 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY UW-CIMSS AND THE 2252SHIPS MODEL...AND OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST 2253QUADRANT. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 2254NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR INCREASES. MODEL FIELDS AND 2255CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW EARL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 2256HOURS...AND BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72 2257HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD 2258SLIGHTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS. 2259 2260SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW THAT EARL HAS TURNED TOWARD 2261THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/15. 2262THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SHOWS AN 2263INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE 2264NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS EARL IS CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- 2265LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE 2266INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED 2267A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT 2268SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ADJUSTED FARTHER 2269EASTWARD IF THE CURRENT MOTION TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH CONTINUES. 2270 2271ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL 2272CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE 2273WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. EARL 2274IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE 2275PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...AND NEW 2276TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST 2277OF MASSACHUSETTS AND MAINE. 2278 2279FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2280 2281INITIAL 03/0300Z 33.8N 74.4W 90 KT 2282 12HR VT 03/1200Z 36.2N 73.7W 85 KT 2283 24HR VT 04/0000Z 39.5N 70.7W 80 KT 2284 36HR VT 04/1200Z 43.9N 66.5W 70 KT 2285 48HR VT 05/0000Z 48.4N 61.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2286 72HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED 2287 2288$$ 2289FORECASTER BRENNAN 2290 2291 2292WTNT42 KNHC 030911 2293TCDAT2 2294HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 2295NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 2296500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 2297 2298EARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE EYE BECOMING INDISTINCT 2299IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE 2300HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB AT ABOUT 05Z. THE 2301MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 03Z WERE 118 KT...WHILE THE 2302MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS NEAR THAT TIME WERE 83 KT. A BLEND OF THESE 2303DATA IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. EARL SHOULD 2304CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND 2305SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL 2306FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN 2307NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME 2308EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR...AND TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER 2309EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HR. 2310 2311THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015-020 AT ABOUT 16 KT. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES 2312THAT EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 231312-24 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. A TURN 2314MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AFTER 36 HR AS EARL 2315UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN 2316THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 2317FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST 2318EARL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE COD...AND ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF 2319THE FORECAST TRACK COULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. 2320 2321ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE ARE DECREASING...EARL 2322CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE WITH THE WIND RADII EXPANDED IN 2323THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON ASCAT DATA. THE CYCLONE IS 2324EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION 2325OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. 2326 2327FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2328 2329INITIAL 03/0900Z 35.3N 74.0W 90 KT 2330 12HR VT 03/1800Z 37.8N 72.4W 85 KT 2331 24HR VT 04/0600Z 41.6N 68.9W 75 KT 2332 36HR VT 04/1800Z 45.9N 64.3W 55 KT 2333 48HR VT 05/0600Z 50.7N 60.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2334 72HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED 2335 2336$$ 2337FORECASTER BEVEN 2338 2339 2340WTNT42 KNHC 031459 2341TCDAT2 2342HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 2343NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 23441100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 2345 2346 2347SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE 2348INDICATE THAT EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 2349HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER 2350INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS 2351ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD AS A 2352HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH 2353SHOULD AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND 2354COASTS. EARL SHOULD REACH CANADA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND 2355THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. 2356 2357EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18 2358KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE 2359SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. 2360EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN 2361FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS. 2362 2363 2364FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2365 2366INITIAL 03/1500Z 36.8N 73.1W 75 KT 2367 12HR VT 04/0000Z 39.7N 70.8W 70 KT 2368 24HR VT 04/1200Z 43.8N 66.5W 60 KT 2369 36HR VT 05/0000Z 49.0N 62.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2370 48HR VT 05/1200Z 52.0N 56.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2371 72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED 2372 2373$$ 2374FORECASTER AVILA 2375 2376 2377WTNT42 KNHC 032037 2378TCDAT2 2379HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 2380NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 2381500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 2382 2383EARL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING. BASED ON THE 2384SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL 2385INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED 2386WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD 2387AS A HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. 2388THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC 2389AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REACH CANADA AS A 2390STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 2391HOURS. 2392 2393EARL IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18 2394KNOTS...BUT IT SHOULD SOON INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE 2395HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD 2396OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS 2397GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION 2398IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. 2399 2400FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2401 2402INITIAL 03/2100Z 38.2N 71.8W 70 KT 2403 12HR VT 04/0600Z 41.2N 69.2W 60 KT 2404 24HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.0W 50 KT 2405 36HR VT 05/0600Z 51.5N 59.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2406 48HR VT 05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW 2407 2408$$ 2409FORECASTER AVILA 2410 2411 2412WTNT42 KNHC 040239 2413TCDAT2 2414TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 2415NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 24161100 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 2417 2418EARL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WHILE THE 2419CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS 958 MB...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT EARL 2420IS NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS 2421BASED ON A BLEND OF PEAK SFMR VALUES OF AROUND 55 KT AND A 700-MB 2422FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 67 KT JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC. THE 2423DEEP CONVECTION WITH EARL IS INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN 2424SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR OF 242515-20 KT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER. EARL WILL BE 2426CROSSING THE NORTHERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SOON...AND COLD WATER 2427AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL 2428EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND PHASE 2429SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT EARL WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL 2430TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...WITH THE TRANSITION COMPLETE IN 36 HOURS. 2431 2432THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 035 DEGREES 2433AT 22 KNOTS. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A LARGE 2434MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES 2435INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT 2436TIME...MUCH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT EARL WILL 2437TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A DISTINCT CYCLONE THROUGH 243872 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OR BEING ABSORBED. THE EXTRATROPICAL 2439PORTION OF THE TRACK IS BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN 2440PREDICTION CENTER. 2441 2442EARL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL BRING HIGH WINDS 2443AND RAINFALL TO MUCH OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN 2444MARITIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 2445 2446FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2447 2448INITIAL 04/0300Z 40.0N 69.7W 60 KT 2449 12HR VT 04/1200Z 43.1N 66.6W 55 KT 2450 24HR VT 05/0000Z 48.2N 61.6W 45 KT...POST-TROPICAL 2451 36HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 56.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2452 48HR VT 06/0000Z 55.5N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2453 72HR VT 07/0000Z 57.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2454 96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED 2455 2456$$ 2457FORECASTER BRENNAN 2458 2459 2460WTNT42 KNHC 040856 2461TCDAT2 2462TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 2463NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 2464500 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 2465 2466BOTH DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DURING THE 2467PAST FEW HOURS EARL HAS DEVELOPED A RING OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE 2468CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYEWALL. BASED ON 2469THE LAST RECON DATA...LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE 2470OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED...THE INITIAL 2471INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 2472 2473THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 2474CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REASONINGS. 2475EARL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER 2476TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO 2477THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 2478MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER 2479WATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LANDMASSES. 2480HOWEVER...EARL IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND STRONG 2481EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFTER IT PASSES NORTH OF NOVA 2482SCOTIA LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE 2483RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL 2484CONSENSUS. THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK IS BASED ON 2485COORDINATION WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 2486 2487EARL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL BRING HIGH WINDS 2488AND RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND TO THE 2489CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 2490 2491 2492FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2493 2494INITIAL 04/0900Z 41.7N 67.1W 60 KT 2495 12HR VT 04/1800Z 45.4N 63.3W 55 KT...INLAND 2496 24HR VT 05/0600Z 50.1N 58.8W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2497 36HR VT 05/1800Z 54.0N 55.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2498 48HR VT 06/0600Z 56.0N 53.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2499 72HR VT 07/0600Z 56.5N 55.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2500 96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED 2501 2502$$ 2503FORECASTER STEWART 2504 2505 2506WTNT42 KNHC 041449 2507TCDAT2 2508TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 2509NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 25101100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 2511 2512EARL HAS MAINTAINED SOME CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE 2513IMAGERY INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2514HOWEVER...MOST THE RAIN SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE 2515NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE WIND FIELD IS 2516EXPANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EARL IS GRADUALLY 2517BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BEST 2518ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS...BASED ON 2519SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL 2520IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL 2521CYCLONE FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. 2522 2523EARL HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING 2524TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF 035 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL 2525TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2526DAY OR SO. 2527 2528 2529FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2530 2531INITIAL 04/1500Z 44.3N 64.5W 60 KT 2532 12HR VT 05/0000Z 48.0N 60.7W 50 KT...OVER WATER 2533 24HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 56.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2534 36HR VT 06/0000Z 55.5N 53.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2535 48HR VT 06/1200Z 57.0N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2536 72HR VT 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2537 96HR VT 08/1200Z...ABSORBED 2538 2539$$ 2540FORECASTER AVILA 2541 2542 2543WTNT42 KNHC 042033 2544TCDAT2 2545TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 2546NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 2547500 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 2548 2549LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE 2550NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL 2551STORM FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE 2552CYCLONE IS BECOMING A LITTLE BIT ASYMMETRIC AND THE WIND FIELD IS 2553EXPANDING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE 2554CENTER FOR SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE CYCLONE. THIS MEANS THAT EARL STILL 2555IS RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST 2556TO MOVE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND 2557BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT. 2558 2559FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2560 2561INITIAL 04/2100Z 47.5N 62.2W 60 KT 2562 12HR VT 05/0600Z 52.0N 58.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2563 24HR VT 05/1800Z 55.0N 55.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2564 36HR VT 06/0600Z 55.7N 51.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2565 48HR VT 06/1800Z 57.0N 51.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2566 72HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED 2567 2568$$ 2569FORECASTER AVILA 2570 2571 2572WTNT42 KNHC 050235 2573TCDAT2 2574TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 2575NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 25761100 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 2577 2578OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE WIND FIELD OF EARL HAS BECOME 2579INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW WELL REMOVED 2580FROM THE CENTER. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH 2581INTERACTING WITH EARL HAS BEEN ENTRAINED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN 2582SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. ALSO...THE EASTERN PORTION OF EARL/S 2583CIRCULATION IS NOW INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. BASED ON ALL 2584OF THIS...EARL IS NOW DECLARED POST-TROPICAL...AND THIS WILL BE THE 2585LAST NHC ADVISORY ON EARL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT 2586BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS EARL 2587COMPLETES THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. 2588 2589THE FORWARD SPEED HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE...AND IS NOW 030/40. 2590THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF 2591POST-TROPICAL EARL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LABRADOR AND INTO THE 2592ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EARL WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY 2593NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BECOMES A 2594VERTICALLY STACKED COLD CORE CYCLONE BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD 2595ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND DISSIPATING IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE 2596OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. 2597 2598EARL IS STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF 2599ATLANTIC CANADA. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL EARL IN 2600CANADA...SEE PRODUCTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA. 2601 2602ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL EARL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH 2603SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 2604HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. 2605 2606FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2607 2608INITIAL 05/0300Z 50.7N 59.2W 55 KT...POST-TROPICAL 2609 12HR VT 05/1200Z 52.9N 55.4W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2610 24HR VT 06/0000Z 55.0N 52.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2611 36HR VT 06/1200Z 57.0N 53.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2612 48HR VT 07/0000Z 57.0N 55.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2613 72HR VT 08/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2614 96HR VT 09/0000Z 52.0N 36.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2615120HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED 2616 2617$$ 2618FORECASTER BRENNAN 2619 2620 2621