1WTNT33 KNHC 142051 2TCPAT3 3BULLETIN 4TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 5NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 6500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010 7 8...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... 9 10 11SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 12---------------------------------------------- 13LOCATION...18.3N 84.2W 14ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 15MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR 16PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 17MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES 18 19 20WATCHES AND WARNINGS 21-------------------- 22CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 23 24THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 25EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/ 26BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. 27 28THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE 29COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 30BORDER. 31 32SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 33 34A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 35* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 36MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 37 38A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 39* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 40BORDER 41 42A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 43EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 44HOURS. 45 46A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 47POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 48 49FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 50PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 51 52 53DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 54------------------------------ 55REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 56THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS 57DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM KARL. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC... 58THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 59NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE 60WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 61EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 62NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL 63WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO 64THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 65 66MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 67GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES 68THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. 69 70AT THIS TIME...KARL IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 71WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER. 72 73THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER 74DATA IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. 75 76 77HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 78---------------------- 79STORM SURGE... A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 80FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 81NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 82DAMAGING WAVES. 83 84RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 85TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 86GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 87 88 89NEXT ADVISORY 90------------- 91NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. 92NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 93 94$$ 95FORECASTER BEVEN 96 97 98WTNT33 KNHC 142344 99TCPAT3 100BULLETIN 101TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A 102NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 103800 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010 104 105...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 106 107 108SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 109---------------------------------------------- 110LOCATION...18.4N 84.8W 111ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 112MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR 113PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 114MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 115 116 117WATCHES AND WARNINGS 118-------------------- 119CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 120 121NONE. 122 123SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 124 125A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 126* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 127MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 128 129A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 130* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 131BORDER 132 133A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 134EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 135HOURS. 136 137A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 138POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 139 140FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 141PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 142 143 144DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 145------------------------------ 146AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 147LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST. KARL IS 148MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS 149GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN 150FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 151TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON 152WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY 153NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 154 155REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM 156SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH 157HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 158THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING 159FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. 160 161TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM 162FROM THE CENTER. 163 164THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE AND NASA 165AIRCRAFT DATA IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. 166 167 168HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 169---------------------- 170STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 171FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 172NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 173DAMAGING WAVES. 174 175RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 176TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 177GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 178 179 180NEXT ADVISORY 181------------- 182NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 183 184$$ 185FORECASTER BROWN 186 187 188WTNT33 KNHC 150243 189TCPAT3 190BULLETIN 191TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 192NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1931000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010 194 195...KARL EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 196EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... 197 198 199SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 200----------------------------------------------- 201LOCATION...18.6N 85.5W 202ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 203MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR 204PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 205MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 206 207 208WATCHES AND WARNINGS 209-------------------- 210CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 211 212NONE. 213 214SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 215 216A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 217* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 218MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 219 220A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 221* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 222BORDER 223 224A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 225EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 226HOURS. 227 228A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 229POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 230 231FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 232PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 233 234 235DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 236------------------------------ 237AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 238LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. KARL IS 239MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS 240GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN 241FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 242TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON 243WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY 244NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 245 246MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 247GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES 248THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. 249RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES 250OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 251 252TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM 253FROM THE CENTER. 254 255ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. 256 257 258HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 259---------------------- 260WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 261COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 262 263STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 264FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 265NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 266DAMAGING WAVES. 267 268RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 269TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 270GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 271 272 273NEXT ADVISORY 274------------- 275NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. 276NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 277 278$$ 279FORECASTER BROWN 280 281 282WTNT33 KNHC 150557 283TCPAT3 284BULLETIN 285TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A 286NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 287100 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 288 289...KARL HEADED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 290 291 292SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 293---------------------------------------------- 294LOCATION...18.6N 86.0W 295ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 296MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR 297PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 298MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 299 300 301WATCHES AND WARNINGS 302-------------------- 303CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 304 305NONE. 306 307SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 308 309A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 310* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 311MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 312 313A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 314* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 315BORDER 316 317A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 318EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 319HOURS. 320 321A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 322POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 323 324FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.....PLEASE MONITOR 325PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 326 327 328DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 329------------------------------ 330AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 331LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. KARL IS 332MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS 333GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN 334FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 335TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 336LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 337WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 338 339MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 340GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES 341THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. 342RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE 343SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 344 345TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM 346FROM THE CENTER. 347 348ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. 349 350 351HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 352---------------------- 353WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 354COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. 355 356STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 357FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 358NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 359DAMAGING WAVES. 360 361RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 362TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 363GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 364 365 366NEXT ADVISORY 367------------- 368NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 369 370$$ 371FORECASTER PASCH 372 373 374WTNT33 KNHC 150838 375TCPAT3 376BULLETIN 377TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 378NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 379400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 380 381...KARL NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 382 383 384SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 385---------------------------------------------- 386LOCATION...18.5N 86.7W 387ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 388MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR 389PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR 390MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES 391 392 393WATCHES AND WARNINGS 394-------------------- 395CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 396 397NONE. 398 399SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 400 401A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 402* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 403MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 404 405A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 406* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 407BORDER 408 409A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 410EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 411HOURS. 412 413A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 414POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 415 416FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 417PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 418 419 420DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 421------------------------------ 422AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 423LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST. KARL IS 424MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION 425IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING 426THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 427KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE 428INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 429 430MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 431GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KARL COULD 432APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS 433EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON 434THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... 435WHERE KARL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. 436 437TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM 438FROM THE CENTER. 439 440AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM 441CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. 442 443 444HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 445---------------------- 446WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE 447WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS. 448 449STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 450FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 451NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 452DAMAGING WAVES. 453 454RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 455TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 456GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 457 458 459NEXT ADVISORY 460------------- 461NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. 462NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 463 464$$ 465FORECASTER PASCH 466 467 468WTNT33 KNHC 151145 469TCPAT3 470BULLETIN 471TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A 472NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 473700 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 474 475...CENTER OF KARL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE 476YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... 477 478 479SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 480---------------------------------------------- 481LOCATION...18.6N 87.6W 482ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 483MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR 484PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR 485MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES 486 487 488WATCHES AND WARNINGS 489-------------------- 490CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 491 492NONE. 493 494SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 495 496A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 497* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 498MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 499 500A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 501* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 502BORDER 503 504A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 505EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 506HOURS. 507 508A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 509POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 510 511FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 512PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 513 514 515DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 516------------------------------ 517AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 518LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KARL IS 519MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION 520IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING 521THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 522KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO IN THE 523NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND 524MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. 525 526MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 527GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KARL COULD 528APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS 529EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON 530THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... 531WHERE KARL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. 532 533TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM 534FROM THE CENTER. A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT BANCO CHINCHORRO 535RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR...AND A WIND 536GUST OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR. 537 538THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE 539HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. 540 541 542HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 543---------------------- 544WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE 545WARNING AREA. 546 547STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 548FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 549NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 550DAMAGING WAVES. 551 552RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 553TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 554GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 555 556 557NEXT ADVISORY 558------------- 559NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 560 561$$ 562FORECASTER BEVEN 563 564 565WTNT33 KNHC 151438 566TCPAT3 567BULLETIN 568TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 569NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 5701000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 571 572...KARL MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF 573MEXICO... 574 575 576SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 577----------------------------------------------- 578LOCATION...18.6N 88.2W 579ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 580ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 581MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR 582PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR 583MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES 584 585 586WATCHES AND WARNINGS 587-------------------- 588CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 589 590THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING 591FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN. 592 593THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE 594WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 595NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN. 596 597SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 598 599A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 600* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 601MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN 602 603A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 604* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 605BORDER 606* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 607NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 608 609A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 610EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 611HOURS. 612 613A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 614POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 615 616FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR 617PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 618 619 620DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 621------------------------------ 622AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 623LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. KARL IS 624MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE 625WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR 626THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS 627THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND 628THEN EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. 629 630MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 631GUSTS. KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN 632PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY 633AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 634 635TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM 636FROM THE CENTER. 637 638ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. 639 640 641HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 642---------------------- 643WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE 644WARNING AREA AND WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 645TODAY. 646 647STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING 648WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE 649TODAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND. 650 651RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 652TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 653GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 654 655 656NEXT ADVISORY 657------------- 658NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 659NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 660 661$$ 662FORECASTER BEVEN 663 664 665WTNT33 KNHC 151745 666TCPAT3 667BULLETIN 668TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A 669NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 670100 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 671 672...KARL SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... 673 674 675SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 676---------------------------------------------- 677LOCATION...18.8N 88.7W 678ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 679ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 680MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR 681PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR 682MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES 683 684 685WATCHES AND WARNINGS 686-------------------- 687CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 688 689NONE. 690 691SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 692 693A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 694* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 695MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN 696 697A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 698* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 699BORDER 700* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 701NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 702 703A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 704EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 705HOURS. 706 707A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 708POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 709 710FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 711PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 712 713 714DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 715------------------------------ 716AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 717LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST. KARL IS 718MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE 719WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR 720THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS 721THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND 722THEN EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. 723 724MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 725GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER CROSSES 726THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY 727OR FRIDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 728 729TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM 730FROM THE CENTER. 731 732ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. 733 734 735HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 736---------------------- 737WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE 738WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN 739PENINSULA TODAY. 740 741STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING 742WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE 743TODAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND. 744 745RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 7463 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 747GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 748 749 750NEXT ADVISORY 751------------- 752NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 753 754$$ 755FORECASTER BEVEN 756 757 758WTNT33 KNHC 152032 759TCPAT3 760BULLETIN 761TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 762NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 763400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 764 765...KARL WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN 766PENINSULA... 767 768 769SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 770---------------------------------------------- 771LOCATION...19.0N 89.4W 772ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 773ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 774MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR 775PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 776MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES 777 778 779WATCHES AND WARNINGS 780-------------------- 781CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 782 783THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING 784FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 785 786THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 787FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. 788 789SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 790 791A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 792* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 793NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 794 795A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 796POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 797 798A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF 799MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE 800PROGRESS OF KARL. 801 802FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR 803PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 804 805 806DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 807------------------------------ 808AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 809LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 810NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE 811WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 812EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED 813DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER 814OF KARL WILL EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY 815THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE 816SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. 817 818MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... 819WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE 820CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS 821EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF 822CAMPECHE...AND KARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. 823 824TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM 825FROM THE CENTER. 826 827ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. 828 829 830HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 831---------------------- 832WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE 833SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. 834 835STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING 836WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE 837THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND. 838 839RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 8403 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 841GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS 842COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 843 844 845NEXT ADVISORY 846------------- 847NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 848NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 849 850$$ 851FORECASTER BEVEN 852 853 854WTNT33 KNHC 152335 855TCPAT3 856BULLETIN 857TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A 858NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 859700 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 860 861...KARL MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 862 863 864SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 865---------------------------------------------- 866LOCATION...19.2N 90.1W 867ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 868MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR 869PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 870MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 871 872 873WATCHES AND WARNINGS 874-------------------- 875CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 876 877NONE 878 879SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 880 881A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 882* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 883NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 884 885A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 886POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. 887 888A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF 889MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE 890PROGRESS OF KARL. 891 892FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 893PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 894 895 896DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 897------------------------------ 898AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 899LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 900NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE 901WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 902EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED 903DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER 904OF KARL WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR 905EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF 906OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. 907 908MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... 909WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE 910CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS 911EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF 912CAMPECHE...AND KARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. 913 914TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM 915FROM THE CENTER. 916 917ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 918 919 920HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 921---------------------- 922WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER A SMALL 923AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. 924 925RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 9263 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 927GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS 928COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 929 930 931NEXT ADVISORY 932------------- 933NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 934 935$$ 936FORECASTER AVILA 937 938 939WTNT33 KNHC 160238 940TCPAT3 941BULLETIN 942TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 943NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 9441000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 945 946...KARL ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FORECAST TO 947STRENGTHEN... 948 949 950SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 951----------------------------------------------- 952LOCATION...19.4N 90.7W 953ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 954MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR 955PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 956MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 957 958 959WATCHES AND WARNINGS 960-------------------- 961CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 962 963THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST 964OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. 965 966SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 967 968A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 969* FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA 970 971A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 972* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 973NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 974 975A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 976WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS 977BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 978WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR 979DANGEROUS. 980 981A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 982POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. 983 984FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 985PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 986 987 988DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 989------------------------------ 990AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 991LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST. KARL IS 992MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GENERAL 993MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL 994DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 995DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KARL SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE BAY OF 996CAMPECHE SOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 997NEARING THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE 998WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY. 999 1000MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 1001GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS OVER WATER JUST WEST 1002OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. KARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME 1003A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. 1004 1005TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM 1006OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. 1007 1008ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 1009 1010 1011HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1012---------------------- 1013WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO 1014OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS 1015EVENING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY. 1016 1017RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 1018ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 1019YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND 1020NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 1021RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE 1022COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED 1023AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD 1024CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE 1025METEOROLOGICAL STATION AT CHETUMAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN 1026MEASURED NEARLY 7 INCHES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KARL. 1027 1028 1029NEXT ADVISORY 1030------------- 1031NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. 1032NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 1033 1034$$ 1035FORECASTER AVILA 1036 1037 1038WTNT33 KNHC 160532 1039TCPAT3 1040BULLETIN 1041TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A 1042NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1043100 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 1044 1045...KARL MOVING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... 1046 1047 1048SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 1049---------------------------------------------- 1050LOCATION...19.7N 91.2W 1051ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 1052ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 1053MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR 1054PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR 1055MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 1056 1057 1058WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1059-------------------- 1060CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1061 1062NONE. 1063 1064SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1065 1066A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1067* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA 1068 1069A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1070* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 1071NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 1072 1073A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 1074WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 1075THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 1076...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 1077 1078A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1079POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. 1080 1081FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1082PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1083 1084 1085DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1086------------------------------ 1087AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 1088LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. KARL IS 1089MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL 1090WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 1091FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE 1092FORECAST TRACK...KARL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 1093AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE 1094HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY. 1095 1096MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 1097GUSTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OVER WATER 1098WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE 1099NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND KARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 1100FRIDAY. 1101 1102TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM 1103...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. 1104 1105ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 1106 1107 1108HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1109---------------------- 1110WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO 1111OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA 1112OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE 1113HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY 1114EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY. 1115 1116RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 1117ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 1118YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND 1119NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 1120RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE 1121COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED 1122AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD 1123CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 1124 1125 1126NEXT ADVISORY 1127------------- 1128NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 1129 1130$$ 1131FORECASTER BRENNAN 1132 1133 1134WTNT33 KNHC 160856 1135TCPAT3 1136BULLETIN 1137TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 1138NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1139400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 1140 1141...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG 1142THE COAST OF MEXICO... 1143 1144 1145SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 1146---------------------------------------------- 1147LOCATION...19.8N 91.6W 1148ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 1149ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO 1150MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR 1151PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR 1152MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 1153 1154 1155WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1156-------------------- 1157CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1158 1159THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM BARRA 1160DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA. 1161 1162THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 1163FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 1164 1165SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1166 1167A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1168* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA 1169 1170A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 1171WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 1172THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 1173...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 1174 1175FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1176PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1177 1178 1179DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1180------------------------------ 1181AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 1182LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. KARL IS 1183MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GENERAL 1184WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 1185FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE 1186FORECAST TRACK...KARL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 1187AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE 1188WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. 1189 1190MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR 1191...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING 1192THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KARL COULD BECOMES A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. 1193 1194TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 1195KM...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. 1196 1197ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 1198 1199 1200HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1201---------------------- 1202WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 1203ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE 1204FRIDAY. 1205 1206RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 1207ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 1208YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND 1209NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES. 1210RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE 1211COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED 1212AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD 1213CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 1214 1215 1216NEXT ADVISORY 1217------------- 1218NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. 1219NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 1220 1221$$ 1222FORECASTER BRENNAN 1223 1224 1225WTNT33 KNHC 161224 1226TCPAT3 1227BULLETIN 1228TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 1229NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1230730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 1231 1232...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER AND SOUTH OF THE 1233PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... 1234 1235 1236SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION 1237---------------------------------------------- 1238LOCATION...19.7N 92.2W 1239ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 1240ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 1241MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR 1242PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 1243MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES 1244 1245 1246WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1247-------------------- 1248CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1249 1250NONE. 1251 1252SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1253 1254A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1255* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA 1256 1257A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 1258WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 1259THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 1260...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 1261 1262HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF 1263MAINLAND MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING. 1264 1265FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1266PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1267 1268 1269DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1270------------------------------ 1271AT 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 1272LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST. KARL IS 1273MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS 1274GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 1275ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE 1276SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND BE NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND 1277MEXICO LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. 1278 1279REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 1280THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 1281KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY... 1282AND KARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. 1283 1284TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM 1285FROM THE CENTER. 1286 1287THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 987 1288MB...29.15 INCHES. 1289 1290 1291HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1292---------------------- 1293WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 1294ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE 1295FRIDAY. 1296 1297RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 1298ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 1299YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND 1300NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES. 1301RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE 1302COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED 1303AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD 1304CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 1305 1306 1307NEXT ADVISORY 1308------------- 1309NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 1310 1311$$ 1312FORECASTER BEVEN 1313 1314 1315WTNT33 KNHC 161454 1316TCPAT3 1317BULLETIN 1318HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 1319NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 13201000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 1321 1322...KARL BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE 1323MEXICAN GULF COAST... 1324 1325 1326SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 1327----------------------------------------------- 1328LOCATION...19.7N 92.8W 1329ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 1330ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 1331MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 1332PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR 1333MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES 1334 1335 1336WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1337-------------------- 1338CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1339 1340THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF 1341COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. 1342 1343THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 1344GULF COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ...AND FOR THE 1345GULF COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ. 1346 1347SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1348 1349A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1350* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO 1351 1352A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1353* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1354 1355A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1356* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1357* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ 1358 1359A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 1360SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 136136 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 1362TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE 1363PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 1364AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 1365 1366A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 1367WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 1368THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 1369...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 1370 1371A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1372EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1373 1374FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1375PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1376 1377 1378DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1379------------------------------ 1380AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 1381NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 1382TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 1383EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 1384TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 1385MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE 1386COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. 1387 1388REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 1389THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 1390KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE 1391SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 1392LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 1393THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. 1394 1395HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 1396THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 1397MILES...110 KM. 1398 1399MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1400983 MB...29.03 INCHES. 1401 1402 1403HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1404---------------------- 1405STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1406AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 1407COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 1408NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 1409DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1410 1411WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 1412ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 1413THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 1414 1415RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 1416TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 1417REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 1418INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 1419FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 1420 1421 1422NEXT ADVISORY 1423------------- 1424NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 1425NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 1426 1427$$ 1428FORECASTER BEVEN 1429 1430 1431WTNT33 KNHC 161509 1432TCPAT3 1433BULLETIN 1434HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED 1435NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 14361000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 1437 1438CORRECTED DAYS IN MOTION AND WIND HAZARDS SECTIONS 1439 1440...KARL BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE 1441MEXICAN GULF COAST... 1442 1443 1444SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 1445----------------------------------------------- 1446LOCATION...19.7N 92.8W 1447ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 1448ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 1449MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 1450PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR 1451MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES 1452 1453 1454WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1455-------------------- 1456CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1457 1458THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF 1459COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. 1460 1461THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 1462GULF COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ...AND FOR THE 1463GULF COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ. 1464 1465SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1466 1467A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1468* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO 1469 1470A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1471* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1472 1473A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1474* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1475* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ 1476 1477A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 1478SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 147936 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 1480TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE 1481PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 1482AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 1483 1484A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 1485WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 1486THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 1487...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 1488 1489A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1490EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1491 1492FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1493PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1494 1495 1496DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1497------------------------------ 1498AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 1499NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 1500TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 1501EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 1502TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 1503MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE 1504COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. 1505 1506REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 1507THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 1508KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE 1509SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 1510LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 1511THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. 1512 1513HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 1514THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 1515MILES...110 KM. 1516 1517MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1518983 MB...29.03 INCHES. 1519 1520 1521HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1522---------------------- 1523STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1524AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 1525COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 1526NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 1527DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1528 1529WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 1530ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 1531LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 1532 1533RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 1534TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 1535REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 1536INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 1537FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 1538 1539 1540NEXT ADVISORY 1541------------- 1542NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 1543NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 1544 1545$$ 1546FORECASTER BEVEN 1547 1548 1549WTNT33 KNHC 161736 1550TCPAT3 1551BULLETIN 1552HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A 1553NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1554100 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 1555 1556...KARL MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... 1557 1558 1559SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 1560---------------------------------------------- 1561LOCATION...19.7N 93.3W 1562ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 1563ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 1564MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 1565PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR 1566MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES 1567 1568 1569WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1570-------------------- 1571CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1572 1573NONE. 1574 1575SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1576 1577A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1578* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO 1579 1580A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1581* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1582 1583A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1584* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1585* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ 1586 1587A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 1588SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 158936 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 1590TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE 1591PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 1592AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 1593 1594A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 1595WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 1596THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 1597...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 1598 1599A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1600EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1601 1602FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1603PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1604 1605 1606DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1607------------------------------ 1608AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 1609NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 1610TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 1611EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 1612TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 1613MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE 1614COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. 1615 1616MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 1617GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 1618HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND KARL COULD 1619APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE 1620MEXICAN COAST. 1621 1622HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 1623THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 1624MILES...110 KM. 1625 1626THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 1627HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. 1628 1629 1630HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1631---------------------- 1632STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1633AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 1634COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 1635NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 1636DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1637 1638WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 1639ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 1640LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 1641 1642RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 1643TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 1644REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 1645INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 1646FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 1647 1648 1649NEXT ADVISORY 1650------------- 1651NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 1652 1653$$ 1654FORECASTER BEVEN 1655 1656 1657WTNT33 KNHC 162044 1658TCPAT3 1659BULLETIN 1660HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 1661NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1662400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 1663 1664...KARL STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING 1665EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... 1666 1667 1668SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 1669---------------------------------------------- 1670LOCATION...19.6N 93.7W 1671ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 1672ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 1673MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR 1674PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR 1675MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES 1676 1677 1678WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1679-------------------- 1680CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1681 1682THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA 1683SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. 1684 1685THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH 1686OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. 1687 1688SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1689 1690A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1691* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 1692 1693A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1694* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1695 1696A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1697* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1698* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 1699 1700A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 1701SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 170236 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 1703TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE 1704PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 1705AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 1706 1707A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 1708WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 1709THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 1710...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 1711 1712A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1713EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1714 1715FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1716PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1717 1718 1719DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1720------------------------------ 1721AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 1722NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 1723TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED 1724TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 1725TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS 1726THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF 1727MEXICO ON FRIDAY. 1728 1729REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM 1730SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... 1731WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE 1732SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 1733LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 1734THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. 1735 1736HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 1737THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 1738MILES...110 KM. 1739 1740THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 977 1741MB...28.85 INCHES. 1742 1743 1744HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1745---------------------- 1746STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1747AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 1748COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 1749NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 1750DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1751 1752WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 1753ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS 1754EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. 1755 1756RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 1757TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 1758REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 1759INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 1760FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 1761 1762 1763NEXT ADVISORY 1764------------- 1765NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 1766NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 1767 1768$$ 1769FORECASTER BEVEN 1770 1771 1772WTNT33 KNHC 162354 1773TCPAT3 1774BULLETIN 1775HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A 1776NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1777700 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 1778 1779...HURRICANE KARL AMING AT THE COAST OF MEXICO... 1780 1781SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 1782---------------------------------------------- 1783LOCATION...19.7N 94.1W 1784ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 1785ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 1786MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR 1787PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR 1788MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES 1789 1790 1791WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1792-------------------- 1793CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1794 1795NONE. 1796 1797SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1798 1799A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1800* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 1801 1802A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1803* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1804 1805A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1806* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1807* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 1808 1809 1810FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1811PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1812 1813 1814DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1815------------------------------ 1816AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 1817NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 1818TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED 1819TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 1820TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL 1821CONTINUE CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON 1822THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY. 1823 1824REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT 1825MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH 1826HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE 1827SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 1828LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 1829THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. 1830 1831HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 1832THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 1833MILES...110 KM. 1834 1835THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER 1836WAS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. 1837 1838 1839HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1840---------------------- 1841STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1842AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 1843COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 1844NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 1845DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1846 1847WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 1848ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE 1849CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. 1850 1851RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 1852TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 1853REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 1854INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 1855FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 1856 1857 1858NEXT ADVISORY 1859------------- 1860NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 1861 1862$$ 1863FORECASTER AVILA 1864 1865 1866WTNT33 KNHC 170239 1867TCPAT3 1868BULLETIN 1869HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 1870NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 18711000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 1872 1873...HURRICANE KARL HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH 100 MPH 1874WINDS... 1875 1876 1877SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 1878----------------------------------------------- 1879LOCATION...19.7N 94.5W 1880ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 1881ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 1882MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR 1883PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 1884MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES 1885 1886 1887WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1888-------------------- 1889CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1890 1891NONE. 1892 1893SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1894 1895A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1896* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 1897 1898A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1899* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1900 1901A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1902* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1903* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 1904 1905FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR 1906PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1907 1908 1909DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1910------------------------------ 1911AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 1912NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 1913TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 1914EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE 1915FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE 1916COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY. 1917 1918DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THE THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 1919WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 1920GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 1921HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND 1922KARL COULD REACH THE COAST AS AN INTENSE CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. 1923 1924HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM 1925THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 1926MILES...165 KM. 1927 1928LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1929968 MB...28.58 INCHES. 1930 1931 1932HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1933---------------------- 1934STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1935AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 1936COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 1937NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 1938DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1939 1940WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 1941ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE 1942CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. 1943 1944RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 1945TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 1946REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 1947INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 1948FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 1949 1950 1951NEXT ADVISORY 1952------------- 1953NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. 1954NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 1955 1956$$ 1957FORECASTER AVILA 1958 1959 1960WTNT33 KNHC 170536 1961TCPAT3 1962BULLETIN 1963HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A 1964NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1965100 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 1966 1967...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE 1968COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... 1969 1970 1971SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 1972---------------------------------------------- 1973LOCATION...19.7N 94.8W 1974ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 1975ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 1976MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR 1977PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 1978MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES 1979 1980 1981WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1982-------------------- 1983CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1984 1985NONE. 1986 1987SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1988 1989A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1990* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 1991 1992A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1993* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1994 1995A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1996* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 1997* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 1998 1999FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 2000PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2001 2002 2003DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2004------------------------------ 2005AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 2006NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 2007TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 2008EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE 2009FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE 2010COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY. 2011 2012DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 2013THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH... 2014165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON 2015THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING 2016IS EXPECTED...AND KARL COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. 2017 2018HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM 2019THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 2020MILES...165 KM. A JOINT U.S. EPA AND MEXICAN GOVERNMENT OBSERVING 2021STATION ON SACRIFICE ISLAND NEAR VERACRUZ RECENTLY REPORTED A 2022SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/HR...AND A GUST TO 41 MPH...66 2023KM/HR. 2024 2025THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE 2026HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. 2027 2028 2029HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2030---------------------- 2031STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 2032AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 2033COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 2034NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 2035DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2036 2037WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 2038ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE 2039CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. 2040 2041RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 2042TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 2043REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 2044INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 2045FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2046 2047 2048NEXT ADVISORY 2049------------- 2050NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 2051 2052$$ 2053FORECASTER BRENNAN 2054 2055 2056WTNT33 KNHC 170836 2057TCPAT3 2058BULLETIN 2059HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 2060NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 2061400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 2062 2063...KARL NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...BEARING DOWN ON THE COAST OF 2064MEXICO... 2065 2066 2067SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 2068---------------------------------------------- 2069LOCATION...19.7N 95.3W 2070ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 2071ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 2072MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR 2073PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 2074MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES 2075 2076 2077WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2078-------------------- 2079CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2080 2081NONE. 2082 2083SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2084 2085A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2086* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 2087 2088A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2089* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 2090 2091A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2092* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 2093* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 2094 2095FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 2096PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2097 2098 2099DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2100------------------------------ 2101AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 2102NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 2103TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED 2104TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 2105CENTER OF KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA 2106LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INLAND OVER 2107MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 2108 2109MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR 2110...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND SOME 2111ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE LANDFALL. 2112WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER KARL MOVES INLAND. 2113 2114HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM 2115THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 2116MILES...165 KM. 2117 2118THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. 2119 2120 2121HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2122---------------------- 2123STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 2124AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE 2125IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES 2126LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE 2127AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2128 2129WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 2130ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE 2131EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 2132 2133RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 2134TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 2135REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 2136INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 2137FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2138 2139 2140NEXT ADVISORY 2141------------- 2142NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. 2143NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 2144 2145$$ 2146FORECASTER BRENNAN 2147 2148 2149WTNT33 KNHC 171157 2150TCPAT3 2151BULLETIN 2152HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A 2153NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 2154700 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 2155 2156...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE KARL APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF 2157MEXICO... 2158 2159 2160SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 2161---------------------------------------------- 2162LOCATION...19.6N 95.6W 2163ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 2164ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 2165MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR 2166PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 2167MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES 2168 2169 2170WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2171-------------------- 2172CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2173 2174NONE. 2175 2176SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2177 2178A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2179* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 2180 2181A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2182* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 2183 2184A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2185* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 2186* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 2187 2188FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 2189PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2190 2191 2192DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2193------------------------------ 2194AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 2195NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 2196TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED 2197TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 2198CENTER OF KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA 2199LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 2200 2201MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 2202GUSTS. KARL IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR 2203SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL 2204POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER KARL MOVES 2205INLAND. 2206 2207HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM 2208THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 2209MILES...165 KM. 2210 2211THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE 2212HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES. 2213 2214 2215HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2216---------------------- 2217STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 2218AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE 2219IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES 2220LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE 2221AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2222 2223WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 2224ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE 2225EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 2226 2227RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 2228TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 2229REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 2230INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 2231FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2232 2233 2234NEXT ADVISORY 2235------------- 2236NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 2237 2238$$ 2239FORECASTER BEVEN 2240 2241 2242WTNT33 KNHC 171446 2243TCPAT3 2244BULLETIN 2245HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 2246NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 22471000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 2248 2249...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KARL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG 2250THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... 2251 2252 2253SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 2254----------------------------------------------- 2255LOCATION...19.4N 95.9W 2256ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 2257ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 2258MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR 2259PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR 2260MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES 2261 2262 2263WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2264-------------------- 2265CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2266 2267NONE. 2268 2269SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2270 2271A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2272* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 2273 2274A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2275* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 2276 2277A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2278* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 2279* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 2280 2281FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR 2282PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2283 2284 2285DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2286------------------------------ 2287AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 2288NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 2289TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE 2290WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON 2291THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE 2292MEXICAN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN MOVE INLAND 2293OVER MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 2294 2295MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 2296GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 2297HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE 2298LANDFALL...WITH KARL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. 2299 2300HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM 2301THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 2302MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT LAGUNA VERDE MEXICO 2303RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/HR. 2304 2305THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE 2306RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. 2307 2308 2309HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2310---------------------- 2311STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 2312AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE 2313IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES 2314LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE 2315AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2316 2317WIND...AT THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL 2318STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS 2319ARE IMMINENT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND NEAR THE 2320CENTER OF KARL AFTER LANDFALL. 2321 2322RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 2323TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 2324REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 2325INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 2326FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2327 2328 2329NEXT ADVISORY 2330------------- 2331NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 2332NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 2333 2334$$ 2335FORECASTER BEVEN 2336 2337 2338WTNT33 KNHC 171748 2339TCPAT3 2340BULLETIN 2341HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A 2342NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 2343100 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 2344 2345...CENTER OF KARL NOW INLAND JUST TO THE WEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... 2346 2347 2348SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 2349---------------------------------------------- 2350LOCATION...19.2N 96.4W 2351ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 2352MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR 2353PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR 2354MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES 2355 2356 2357WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2358-------------------- 2359CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2360 2361NONE. 2362 2363SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2364 2365A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2366* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 2367 2368A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2369* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 2370 2371A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2372* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 2373* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 2374 2375FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 2376PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2377 2378 2379DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2380------------------------------ 2381AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 2382NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 2383TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION 2384TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 238548 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE 2386FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 2387 2388MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH... 2389175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE 2390ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS 2391EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND. 2392 2393HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM 2394THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 239590 MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN THE HARBOR AT VERACRUZ 2396MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 65 MPH...105 2397KM/HR... AND A WIND GUST OF 94 MPH...152 KM/HR. 2398 2399THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. 2400 2401 2402HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2403---------------------- 2404STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 2405AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE 2406IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES 2407LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE 2408AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2409 2410WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OF KARL 2411IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE 2412TRACK OF THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. 2413 2414RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 2415TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 2416REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 2417INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 2418FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2419 2420 2421NEXT ADVISORY 2422------------- 2423NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 2424 2425$$ 2426FORECASTER BEVEN 2427 2428 2429WTNT33 KNHC 172031 2430TCPAT3 2431BULLETIN 2432HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 2433NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 2434400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 2435 2436...KARL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...EXPECTED TO 2437WEAKEN FASTER... 2438 2439 2440SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 2441---------------------------------------------- 2442LOCATION...19.1N 96.6W 2443ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 2444MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR 2445PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 2446MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES 2447 2448 2449WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2450-------------------- 2451CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2452 2453THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND 2454WARNINGS. 2455 2456SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2457 2458THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 2459 2460FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR 2461PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2462 2463 2464DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2465------------------------------ 2466AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 2467NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 2468TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A MOTION 2469TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 247048 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE 2471FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. 2472 2473MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... 2474WITH HIGHER GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. KARL IS NOW 2475A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND 2476SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH KARL EXPECTED TO 2477WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE 2478MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. 2479 2480HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM 2481THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 248280 MILES...130 KM. 2483 2484ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. 2485 2486 2487HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2488---------------------- 2489STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD 2490SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER 2491INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE 2492AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2493 2494WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE 2495CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE TRACK 2496OF THE CENTER TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD 2497SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER 2498THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS 2499CAN BE EVEN GREATER. 2500 2501RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 2502TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 2503REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 2504INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 2505FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2506 2507 2508NEXT ADVISORY 2509------------- 2510NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 2511NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 2512 2513$$ 2514FORECASTER BEVEN 2515 2516 2517WTNT33 KNHC 172336 2518TCPAT3 2519BULLETIN 2520TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A 2521NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 2522700 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 2523 2524...KARL WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO... 2525 2526 2527SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 2528---------------------------------------------- 2529LOCATION...18.8N 97.1W 2530ABOUT 75 MI..115 KM E OF PUEBLA MEXICO 2531MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/HR 2532PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 2533MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES 2534 2535 2536WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2537-------------------- 2538 2539THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 2540 2541FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 2542PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2543 2544 2545DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2546------------------------------ 2547AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 2548LOCATED WELL INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 254997.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 2550KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS 2551EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 2552CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO 2553TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 2554 2555SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT 2556KARL IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 2557WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 2558GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE 2559CENTER. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARL IS EXPECTED TO 2560WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND 2561DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. 2562 2563TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM. 2564 2565ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. 2566 2567 2568HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2569---------------------- 2570 2571WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR 2572THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE 2573TRACK OF THE CENTER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AS KARL 2574WEAKENS. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND 2575MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN 2576THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. 2577 2578RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 2579TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED 2580AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD 2581CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2582 2583 2584NEXT ADVISORY 2585------------- 2586NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 2587 2588$$ 2589FORECASTER AVILA 2590 2591 2592WTNT33 KNHC 180232 2593TCPAT3 2594BULLETIN 2595TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 2596NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 25971000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 2598 2599...KARL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF 2600SOUTHERN MEXICO... 2601 2602SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 2603----------------------------------------------- 2604LOCATION...18.6N 97.4W 2605ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUEBLA MEXICO 2606MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR 2607PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR 2608MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 2609 2610 2611WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2612-------------------- 2613 2614THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 2615 2616DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2617------------------------------ 2618AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL 2619WAS LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.4 2620WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 2621MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 26226 TO 12 HOURS. 2623 2624MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 2625KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 2626NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. 2627 2628ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 2629 2630 2631HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2632---------------------- 2633 2634RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 2635ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN 2636MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 2637MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS 2638AND MUD SLIDES. 2639 2640NEXT ADVISORY 2641------------- 2642NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 2643 2644$$ 2645FORECASTER AVILA 2646 2647 2648WTNT33 KNHC 142051 2649TCPAT3 2650BULLETIN 2651TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 2652NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 2653500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010 2654 2655...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... 2656 2657 2658SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 2659---------------------------------------------- 2660LOCATION...18.3N 84.2W 2661ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 2662MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR 2663PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 2664MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES 2665 2666 2667WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2668-------------------- 2669CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2670 2671THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 2672EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/ 2673BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. 2674 2675THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE 2676COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 2677BORDER. 2678 2679SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2680 2681A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2682* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 2683MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 2684 2685A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 2686* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 2687BORDER 2688 2689A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2690EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 2691HOURS. 2692 2693A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2694POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 2695 2696FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 2697PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2698 2699 2700DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2701------------------------------ 2702REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 2703THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS 2704DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM KARL. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC... 2705THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 2706NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE 2707WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 2708EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 2709NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL 2710WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO 2711THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 2712 2713MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 2714GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES 2715THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. 2716 2717AT THIS TIME...KARL IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 2718WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER. 2719 2720THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER 2721DATA IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. 2722 2723 2724HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2725---------------------- 2726STORM SURGE... A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 2727FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 2728NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 2729DAMAGING WAVES. 2730 2731RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 2732TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 2733GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 2734 2735 2736NEXT ADVISORY 2737------------- 2738NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. 2739NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 2740 2741$$ 2742FORECASTER BEVEN 2743 2744 2745 2746000 2747 2748WTNT33 KNHC 142344 2749TCPAT3 2750BULLETIN 2751TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A 2752NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 2753800 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010 2754 2755...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 2756 2757 2758SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 2759---------------------------------------------- 2760LOCATION...18.4N 84.8W 2761ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 2762MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR 2763PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 2764MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 2765 2766 2767WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2768-------------------- 2769CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2770 2771NONE. 2772 2773SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2774 2775A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2776* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 2777MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 2778 2779A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 2780* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 2781BORDER 2782 2783A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2784EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 2785HOURS. 2786 2787A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2788POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 2789 2790FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 2791PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2792 2793 2794DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2795------------------------------ 2796AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 2797LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST. KARL IS 2798MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS 2799GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN 2800FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 2801TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON 2802WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY 2803NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 2804 2805REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM 2806SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH 2807HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 2808THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING 2809FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. 2810 2811TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM 2812FROM THE CENTER. 2813 2814THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE AND NASA 2815AIRCRAFT DATA IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. 2816 2817 2818HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2819---------------------- 2820STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 2821FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 2822NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 2823DAMAGING WAVES. 2824 2825RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 2826TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 2827GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 2828 2829 2830NEXT ADVISORY 2831------------- 2832NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 2833 2834$$ 2835FORECASTER BROWN 2836 2837 2838 2839 2840WTNT33 KNHC 150243 2841TCPAT3 2842BULLETIN 2843TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 2844NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 28451000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010 2846 2847...KARL EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 2848EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... 2849 2850 2851SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 2852----------------------------------------------- 2853LOCATION...18.6N 85.5W 2854ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 2855MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR 2856PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 2857MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 2858 2859 2860WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2861-------------------- 2862CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2863 2864NONE. 2865 2866SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2867 2868A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2869* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 2870MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 2871 2872A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 2873* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 2874BORDER 2875 2876A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2877EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 2878HOURS. 2879 2880A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2881POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 2882 2883FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 2884PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2885 2886 2887DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2888------------------------------ 2889AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 2890LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. KARL IS 2891MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS 2892GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN 2893FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 2894TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON 2895WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY 2896NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 2897 2898MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 2899GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES 2900THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. 2901RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES 2902OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 2903 2904TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM 2905FROM THE CENTER. 2906 2907ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. 2908 2909 2910HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2911---------------------- 2912WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2913COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 2914 2915STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 2916FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 2917NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 2918DAMAGING WAVES. 2919 2920RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 2921TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 2922GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 2923 2924 2925NEXT ADVISORY 2926------------- 2927NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. 2928NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 2929 2930$$ 2931FORECASTER BROWN 2932 2933 2934 2935000 2936 2937WTNT33 KNHC 150557 2938TCPAT3 2939BULLETIN 2940TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A 2941NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 2942100 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 2943 2944...KARL HEADED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 2945 2946 2947SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 2948---------------------------------------------- 2949LOCATION...18.6N 86.0W 2950ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 2951MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR 2952PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 2953MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 2954 2955 2956WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2957-------------------- 2958CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2959 2960NONE. 2961 2962SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2963 2964A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2965* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 2966MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 2967 2968A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 2969* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 2970BORDER 2971 2972A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2973EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 2974HOURS. 2975 2976A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2977POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 2978 2979FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.....PLEASE MONITOR 2980PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2981 2982 2983DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2984------------------------------ 2985AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 2986LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. KARL IS 2987MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS 2988GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN 2989FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 2990TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 2991LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 2992WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 2993 2994MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 2995GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES 2996THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. 2997RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE 2998SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 2999 3000TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM 3001FROM THE CENTER. 3002 3003ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. 3004 3005 3006HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3007---------------------- 3008WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 3009COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. 3010 3011STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 3012FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 3013NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 3014DAMAGING WAVES. 3015 3016RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 3017TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 3018GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 3019 3020 3021NEXT ADVISORY 3022------------- 3023NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 3024 3025$$ 3026FORECASTER PASCH 3027 3028 3029 3030 3031WTNT33 KNHC 150838 3032TCPAT3 3033BULLETIN 3034TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 3035NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 3036400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 3037 3038...KARL NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 3039 3040 3041SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 3042---------------------------------------------- 3043LOCATION...18.5N 86.7W 3044ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 3045MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR 3046PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR 3047MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES 3048 3049 3050WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3051-------------------- 3052CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 3053 3054NONE. 3055 3056SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 3057 3058A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3059* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 3060MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 3061 3062A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 3063* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 3064BORDER 3065 3066A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3067EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 3068HOURS. 3069 3070A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3071POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 3072 3073FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 3074PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 3075 3076 3077DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3078------------------------------ 3079AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 3080LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST. KARL IS 3081MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION 3082IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING 3083THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 3084KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE 3085INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 3086 3087MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 3088GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KARL COULD 3089APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS 3090EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON 3091THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... 3092WHERE KARL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. 3093 3094TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM 3095FROM THE CENTER. 3096 3097AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM 3098CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. 3099 3100 3101HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3102---------------------- 3103WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE 3104WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS. 3105 3106STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 3107FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 3108NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 3109DAMAGING WAVES. 3110 3111RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 3112TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 3113GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 3114 3115 3116NEXT ADVISORY 3117------------- 3118NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. 3119NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 3120 3121$$ 3122FORECASTER PASCH 3123 3124 3125 3126000 3127 3128WTNT33 KNHC 151145 3129TCPAT3 3130BULLETIN 3131TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A 3132NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 3133700 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 3134 3135...CENTER OF KARL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE 3136YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... 3137 3138 3139SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 3140---------------------------------------------- 3141LOCATION...18.6N 87.6W 3142ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 3143MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR 3144PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR 3145MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES 3146 3147 3148WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3149-------------------- 3150CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 3151 3152NONE. 3153 3154SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 3155 3156A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3157* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 3158MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE 3159 3160A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 3161* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 3162BORDER 3163 3164A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3165EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 3166HOURS. 3167 3168A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3169POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 3170 3171FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 3172PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 3173 3174 3175DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3176------------------------------ 3177AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 3178LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KARL IS 3179MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION 3180IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING 3181THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 3182KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO IN THE 3183NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND 3184MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. 3185 3186MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 3187GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KARL COULD 3188APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS 3189EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON 3190THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... 3191WHERE KARL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. 3192 3193TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM 3194FROM THE CENTER. A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT BANCO CHINCHORRO 3195RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR...AND A WIND 3196GUST OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR. 3197 3198THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE 3199HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. 3200 3201 3202HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3203---------------------- 3204WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE 3205WARNING AREA. 3206 3207STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 3208FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 3209NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 3210DAMAGING WAVES. 3211 3212RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 3213TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 3214GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 3215 3216 3217NEXT ADVISORY 3218------------- 3219NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 3220 3221$$ 3222FORECASTER BEVEN 3223 3224 3225 3226 3227WTNT33 KNHC 151438 3228TCPAT3 3229BULLETIN 3230TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 3231NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 32321000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 3233 3234...KARL MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF 3235MEXICO... 3236 3237 3238SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 3239----------------------------------------------- 3240LOCATION...18.6N 88.2W 3241ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 3242ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 3243MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR 3244PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR 3245MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES 3246 3247 3248WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3249-------------------- 3250CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 3251 3252THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING 3253FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN. 3254 3255THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE 3256WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 3257NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN. 3258 3259SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 3260 3261A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3262* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 3263MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN 3264 3265A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3266* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 3267BORDER 3268* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 3269NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 3270 3271A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3272EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 3273HOURS. 3274 3275A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3276POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 3277 3278FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR 3279PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 3280 3281 3282DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3283------------------------------ 3284AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 3285LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. KARL IS 3286MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE 3287WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR 3288THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS 3289THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND 3290THEN EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. 3291 3292MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 3293GUSTS. KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN 3294PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY 3295AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 3296 3297TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM 3298FROM THE CENTER. 3299 3300ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. 3301 3302 3303HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3304---------------------- 3305WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE 3306WARNING AREA AND WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 3307TODAY. 3308 3309STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING 3310WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE 3311TODAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND. 3312 3313RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 3314TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 3315GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 3316 3317 3318NEXT ADVISORY 3319------------- 3320NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 3321NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 3322 3323$$ 3324FORECASTER BEVEN 3325 3326 3327 3328000 3329 3330WTNT33 KNHC 151745 3331TCPAT3 3332BULLETIN 3333TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A 3334NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 3335100 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 3336 3337...KARL SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... 3338 3339 3340SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 3341---------------------------------------------- 3342LOCATION...18.8N 88.7W 3343ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 3344ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 3345MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR 3346PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR 3347MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES 3348 3349 3350WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3351-------------------- 3352CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 3353 3354NONE. 3355 3356SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 3357 3358A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3359* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE 3360MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN 3361 3362A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3363* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE 3364BORDER 3365* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 3366NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 3367 3368A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3369EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 3370HOURS. 3371 3372A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3373POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 3374 3375FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 3376PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 3377 3378 3379DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3380------------------------------ 3381AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 3382LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST. KARL IS 3383MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE 3384WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR 3385THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS 3386THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND 3387THEN EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. 3388 3389MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 3390GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER CROSSES 3391THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY 3392OR FRIDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 3393 3394TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM 3395FROM THE CENTER. 3396 3397ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. 3398 3399 3400HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3401---------------------- 3402WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE 3403WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN 3404PENINSULA TODAY. 3405 3406STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING 3407WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE 3408TODAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND. 3409 3410RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 34113 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 3412GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 3413 3414 3415NEXT ADVISORY 3416------------- 3417NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 3418 3419$$ 3420FORECASTER BEVEN 3421 3422 3423 3424 3425WTNT33 KNHC 152032 3426TCPAT3 3427BULLETIN 3428TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 3429NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 3430400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 3431 3432...KARL WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN 3433PENINSULA... 3434 3435 3436SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 3437---------------------------------------------- 3438LOCATION...19.0N 89.4W 3439ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO 3440ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 3441MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR 3442PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 3443MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES 3444 3445 3446WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3447-------------------- 3448CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 3449 3450THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING 3451FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 3452 3453THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 3454FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. 3455 3456SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 3457 3458A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3459* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 3460NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 3461 3462A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3463POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 3464 3465A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF 3466MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE 3467PROGRESS OF KARL. 3468 3469FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR 3470PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 3471 3472 3473DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3474------------------------------ 3475AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 3476LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 3477NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE 3478WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 3479EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED 3480DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER 3481OF KARL WILL EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY 3482THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE 3483SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. 3484 3485MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... 3486WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE 3487CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS 3488EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF 3489CAMPECHE...AND KARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. 3490 3491TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM 3492FROM THE CENTER. 3493 3494ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. 3495 3496 3497HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3498---------------------- 3499WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE 3500SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. 3501 3502STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING 3503WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE 3504THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND. 3505 3506RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 35073 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 3508GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS 3509COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 3510 3511 3512NEXT ADVISORY 3513------------- 3514NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 3515NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 3516 3517$$ 3518FORECASTER BEVEN 3519 3520 3521 3522000 3523 3524WTNT33 KNHC 152335 3525TCPAT3 3526BULLETIN 3527TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A 3528NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 3529700 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 3530 3531...KARL MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 3532 3533 3534SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 3535---------------------------------------------- 3536LOCATION...19.2N 90.1W 3537ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 3538MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR 3539PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 3540MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 3541 3542 3543WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3544-------------------- 3545CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 3546 3547NONE 3548 3549SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 3550 3551A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3552* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 3553NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 3554 3555A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3556POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. 3557 3558A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF 3559MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE 3560PROGRESS OF KARL. 3561 3562FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 3563PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 3564 3565 3566DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3567------------------------------ 3568AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 3569LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 3570NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE 3571WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 3572EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED 3573DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER 3574OF KARL WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR 3575EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF 3576OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. 3577 3578MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... 3579WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE 3580CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS 3581EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF 3582CAMPECHE...AND KARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. 3583 3584TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM 3585FROM THE CENTER. 3586 3587ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 3588 3589 3590HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3591---------------------- 3592WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER A SMALL 3593AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. 3594 3595RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 35963 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN 3597GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS 3598COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 3599 3600 3601NEXT ADVISORY 3602------------- 3603NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 3604 3605$$ 3606FORECASTER AVILA 3607 3608 3609 3610 3611WTNT33 KNHC 160238 3612TCPAT3 3613BULLETIN 3614TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 3615NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 36161000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 3617 3618...KARL ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FORECAST TO 3619STRENGTHEN... 3620 3621 3622SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 3623----------------------------------------------- 3624LOCATION...19.4N 90.7W 3625ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 3626MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR 3627PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 3628MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 3629 3630 3631WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3632-------------------- 3633CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 3634 3635THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST 3636OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. 3637 3638SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 3639 3640A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3641* FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA 3642 3643A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3644* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 3645NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 3646 3647A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 3648WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS 3649BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 3650WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR 3651DANGEROUS. 3652 3653A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3654POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. 3655 3656FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 3657PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 3658 3659 3660DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3661------------------------------ 3662AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 3663LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST. KARL IS 3664MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GENERAL 3665MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL 3666DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 3667DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KARL SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE BAY OF 3668CAMPECHE SOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 3669NEARING THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE 3670WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY. 3671 3672MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 3673GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS OVER WATER JUST WEST 3674OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. KARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME 3675A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. 3676 3677TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM 3678OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. 3679 3680ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 3681 3682 3683HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3684---------------------- 3685WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO 3686OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS 3687EVENING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY. 3688 3689RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 3690ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 3691YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND 3692NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 3693RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE 3694COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED 3695AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD 3696CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE 3697METEOROLOGICAL STATION AT CHETUMAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN 3698MEASURED NEARLY 7 INCHES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KARL. 3699 3700 3701NEXT ADVISORY 3702------------- 3703NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. 3704NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 3705 3706$$ 3707FORECASTER AVILA 3708 3709 3710 3711000 3712 3713WTNT33 KNHC 160532 3714TCPAT3 3715BULLETIN 3716TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A 3717NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 3718100 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 3719 3720...KARL MOVING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... 3721 3722 3723SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 3724---------------------------------------------- 3725LOCATION...19.7N 91.2W 3726ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 3727ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 3728MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR 3729PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR 3730MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 3731 3732 3733WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3734-------------------- 3735CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 3736 3737NONE. 3738 3739SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 3740 3741A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3742* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA 3743 3744A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3745* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN 3746NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN 3747 3748A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 3749WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 3750THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 3751...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 3752 3753A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 3754POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. 3755 3756FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 3757PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 3758 3759 3760DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3761------------------------------ 3762AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 3763LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. KARL IS 3764MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL 3765WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 3766FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE 3767FORECAST TRACK...KARL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 3768AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE 3769HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY. 3770 3771MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 3772GUSTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OVER WATER 3773WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE 3774NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND KARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 3775FRIDAY. 3776 3777TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM 3778...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. 3779 3780ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 3781 3782 3783HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3784---------------------- 3785WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO 3786OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA 3787OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE 3788HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY 3789EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY. 3790 3791RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 3792ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 3793YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND 3794NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 3795RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE 3796COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED 3797AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD 3798CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 3799 3800 3801NEXT ADVISORY 3802------------- 3803NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 3804 3805$$ 3806FORECASTER BRENNAN 3807 3808 3809 3810 3811WTNT33 KNHC 160856 3812TCPAT3 3813BULLETIN 3814TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 3815NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 3816400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 3817 3818...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG 3819THE COAST OF MEXICO... 3820 3821 3822SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 3823---------------------------------------------- 3824LOCATION...19.8N 91.6W 3825ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 3826ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO 3827MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR 3828PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR 3829MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 3830 3831 3832WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3833-------------------- 3834CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 3835 3836THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM BARRA 3837DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA. 3838 3839THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 3840FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 3841 3842SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 3843 3844A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3845* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA 3846 3847A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 3848WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 3849THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 3850...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 3851 3852FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 3853PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 3854 3855 3856DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3857------------------------------ 3858AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 3859LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. KARL IS 3860MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GENERAL 3861WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 3862FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE 3863FORECAST TRACK...KARL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 3864AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE 3865WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. 3866 3867MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR 3868...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING 3869THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KARL COULD BECOMES A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. 3870 3871TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 3872KM...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. 3873 3874ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 3875 3876 3877HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3878---------------------- 3879WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 3880ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE 3881FRIDAY. 3882 3883RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 3884ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 3885YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND 3886NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES. 3887RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE 3888COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED 3889AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD 3890CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 3891 3892 3893NEXT ADVISORY 3894------------- 3895NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. 3896NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 3897 3898$$ 3899FORECASTER BRENNAN 3900 3901 3902 3903 3904WTNT33 KNHC 161224 3905TCPAT3 3906BULLETIN 3907TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 3908NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 3909730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 3910 3911...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER AND SOUTH OF THE 3912PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... 3913 3914 3915SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION 3916---------------------------------------------- 3917LOCATION...19.7N 92.2W 3918ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 3919ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 3920MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR 3921PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 3922MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES 3923 3924 3925WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3926-------------------- 3927CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 3928 3929NONE. 3930 3931SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 3932 3933A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 3934* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA 3935 3936A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 3937WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 3938THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 3939...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 3940 3941HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF 3942MAINLAND MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING. 3943 3944FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 3945PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 3946 3947 3948DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3949------------------------------ 3950AT 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 3951LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST. KARL IS 3952MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS 3953GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 3954ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE 3955SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND BE NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND 3956MEXICO LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. 3957 3958REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 3959THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 3960KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY... 3961AND KARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. 3962 3963TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM 3964FROM THE CENTER. 3965 3966THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 987 3967MB...29.15 INCHES. 3968 3969 3970HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3971---------------------- 3972WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 3973ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE 3974FRIDAY. 3975 3976RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 3977ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 3978YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND 3979NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES. 3980RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE 3981COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED 3982AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD 3983CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 3984 3985 3986NEXT ADVISORY 3987------------- 3988NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 3989 3990$$ 3991FORECASTER BEVEN 3992 3993 3994 3995 3996WTNT33 KNHC 161454 3997TCPAT3 3998BULLETIN 3999HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 4000NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 40011000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 4002 4003...KARL BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE 4004MEXICAN GULF COAST... 4005 4006 4007SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 4008----------------------------------------------- 4009LOCATION...19.7N 92.8W 4010ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 4011ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 4012MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 4013PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR 4014MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES 4015 4016 4017WATCHES AND WARNINGS 4018-------------------- 4019CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 4020 4021THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF 4022COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. 4023 4024THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 4025GULF COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ...AND FOR THE 4026GULF COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ. 4027 4028SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 4029 4030A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4031* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO 4032 4033A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4034* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4035 4036A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4037* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4038* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ 4039 4040A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 4041SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 404236 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 4043TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE 4044PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 4045AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 4046 4047A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 4048WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 4049THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 4050...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 4051 4052A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 4053EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 4054 4055FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 4056PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 4057 4058 4059DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 4060------------------------------ 4061AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 4062NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 4063TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 4064EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 4065TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 4066MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE 4067COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. 4068 4069REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 4070THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 4071KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE 4072SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 4073LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 4074THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. 4075 4076HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 4077THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 4078MILES...110 KM. 4079 4080MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 4081983 MB...29.03 INCHES. 4082 4083 4084HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 4085---------------------- 4086STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 4087AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 4088COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 4089NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 4090DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 4091 4092WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 4093ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 4094THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 4095 4096RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 4097TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 4098REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 4099INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 4100FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 4101 4102 4103NEXT ADVISORY 4104------------- 4105NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 4106NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 4107 4108$$ 4109FORECASTER BEVEN 4110 4111 4112 4113 4114WTNT33 KNHC 161509 4115TCPAT3 4116BULLETIN 4117HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED 4118NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 41191000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 4120 4121CORRECTED DAYS IN MOTION AND WIND HAZARDS SECTIONS 4122 4123...KARL BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE 4124MEXICAN GULF COAST... 4125 4126 4127SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 4128----------------------------------------------- 4129LOCATION...19.7N 92.8W 4130ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 4131ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 4132MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 4133PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR 4134MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES 4135 4136 4137WATCHES AND WARNINGS 4138-------------------- 4139CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 4140 4141THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF 4142COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. 4143 4144THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 4145GULF COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ...AND FOR THE 4146GULF COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ. 4147 4148SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 4149 4150A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4151* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO 4152 4153A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4154* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4155 4156A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4157* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4158* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ 4159 4160A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 4161SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 416236 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 4163TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE 4164PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 4165AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 4166 4167A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 4168WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 4169THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 4170...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 4171 4172A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 4173EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 4174 4175FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 4176PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 4177 4178 4179DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 4180------------------------------ 4181AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 4182NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 4183TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 4184EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 4185TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 4186MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE 4187COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. 4188 4189REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 4190THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 4191KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE 4192SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 4193LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 4194THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. 4195 4196HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 4197THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 4198MILES...110 KM. 4199 4200MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 4201983 MB...29.03 INCHES. 4202 4203 4204HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 4205---------------------- 4206STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 4207AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 4208COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 4209NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 4210DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 4211 4212WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 4213ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 4214LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 4215 4216RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 4217TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 4218REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 4219INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 4220FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 4221 4222 4223NEXT ADVISORY 4224------------- 4225NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 4226NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 4227 4228$$ 4229FORECASTER BEVEN 4230 4231 4232 4233 4234WTNT33 KNHC 161736 4235TCPAT3 4236BULLETIN 4237HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A 4238NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 4239100 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 4240 4241...KARL MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... 4242 4243 4244SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 4245---------------------------------------------- 4246LOCATION...19.7N 93.3W 4247ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 4248ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO 4249MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 4250PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR 4251MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES 4252 4253 4254WATCHES AND WARNINGS 4255-------------------- 4256CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 4257 4258NONE. 4259 4260SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 4261 4262A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4263* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO 4264 4265A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4266* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4267 4268A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4269* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4270* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ 4271 4272A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 4273SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 427436 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 4275TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE 4276PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 4277AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 4278 4279A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 4280WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 4281THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 4282...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 4283 4284A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 4285EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 4286 4287FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 4288PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 4289 4290 4291DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 4292------------------------------ 4293AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 4294NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 4295TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 4296EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST 4297TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 4298MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE 4299COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. 4300 4301MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 4302GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 4303HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND KARL COULD 4304APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE 4305MEXICAN COAST. 4306 4307HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 4308THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 4309MILES...110 KM. 4310 4311THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 4312HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. 4313 4314 4315HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 4316---------------------- 4317STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 4318AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 4319COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 4320NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 4321DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 4322 4323WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 4324ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 4325LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 4326 4327RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 4328TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 4329REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 4330INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 4331FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 4332 4333 4334NEXT ADVISORY 4335------------- 4336NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 4337 4338$$ 4339FORECASTER BEVEN 4340 4341 4342 4343 4344WTNT33 KNHC 162044 4345TCPAT3 4346BULLETIN 4347HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 4348NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 4349400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 4350 4351...KARL STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING 4352EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... 4353 4354 4355SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 4356---------------------------------------------- 4357LOCATION...19.6N 93.7W 4358ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 4359ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 4360MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR 4361PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR 4362MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES 4363 4364 4365WATCHES AND WARNINGS 4366-------------------- 4367CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 4368 4369THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA 4370SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. 4371 4372THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH 4373OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. 4374 4375SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 4376 4377A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4378* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 4379 4380A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4381* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4382 4383A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4384* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4385* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 4386 4387A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 4388SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 438936 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 4390TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE 4391PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 4392AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 4393 4394A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 4395WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 4396THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS 4397...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 4398 4399A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 4400EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 4401 4402FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 4403PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 4404 4405 4406DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 4407------------------------------ 4408AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 4409NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 4410TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED 4411TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 4412TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS 4413THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF 4414MEXICO ON FRIDAY. 4415 4416REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM 4417SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... 4418WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE 4419SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 4420LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 4421THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. 4422 4423HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 4424THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 4425MILES...110 KM. 4426 4427THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 977 4428MB...28.85 INCHES. 4429 4430 4431HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 4432---------------------- 4433STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 4434AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 4435COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 4436NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 4437DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 4438 4439WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 4440ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS 4441EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. 4442 4443RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 4444TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 4445REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 4446INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 4447FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 4448 4449 4450NEXT ADVISORY 4451------------- 4452NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 4453NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 4454 4455$$ 4456FORECASTER BEVEN 4457 4458 4459 4460 4461WTNT33 KNHC 162354 4462TCPAT3 4463BULLETIN 4464HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A 4465NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 4466700 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 4467 4468...HURRICANE KARL AMING AT THE COAST OF MEXICO... 4469 4470SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 4471---------------------------------------------- 4472LOCATION...19.7N 94.1W 4473ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 4474ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO 4475MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR 4476PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR 4477MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES 4478 4479 4480WATCHES AND WARNINGS 4481-------------------- 4482CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 4483 4484NONE. 4485 4486SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 4487 4488A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4489* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 4490 4491A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4492* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4493 4494A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4495* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4496* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 4497 4498 4499FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 4500PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 4501 4502 4503DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 4504------------------------------ 4505AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 4506NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 4507TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED 4508TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 4509TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL 4510CONTINUE CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON 4511THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY. 4512 4513REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT 4514MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH 4515HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE 4516SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 4517LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 4518THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. 4519 4520HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 4521THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 4522MILES...110 KM. 4523 4524THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER 4525WAS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. 4526 4527 4528HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 4529---------------------- 4530STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 4531AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 4532COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 4533NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 4534DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 4535 4536WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 4537ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE 4538CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. 4539 4540RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 4541TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 4542REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 4543INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 4544FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 4545 4546 4547NEXT ADVISORY 4548------------- 4549NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 4550 4551$$ 4552FORECASTER AVILA 4553 4554 4555 4556 4557WTNT33 KNHC 171748 4558TCPAT3 4559BULLETIN 4560HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A 4561NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 4562100 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 4563 4564...CENTER OF KARL NOW INLAND JUST TO THE WEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... 4565 4566 4567SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 4568---------------------------------------------- 4569LOCATION...19.2N 96.4W 4570ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 4571MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR 4572PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR 4573MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES 4574 4575 4576WATCHES AND WARNINGS 4577-------------------- 4578CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 4579 4580NONE. 4581 4582SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 4583 4584A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4585* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO 4586 4587A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4588* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4589 4590A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 4591* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ 4592* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO 4593 4594FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 4595PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 4596 4597 4598DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 4599------------------------------ 4600AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 4601NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 4602TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION 4603TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 460448 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE 4605FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 4606 4607MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH... 4608175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE 4609ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS 4610EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND. 4611 4612HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM 4613THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 461490 MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN THE HARBOR AT VERACRUZ 4615MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 65 MPH...105 4616KM/HR... AND A WIND GUST OF 94 MPH...152 KM/HR. 4617 4618THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. 4619 4620 4621HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 4622---------------------- 4623STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 4624AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE 4625IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES 4626LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE 4627AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 4628 4629WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OF KARL 4630IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE 4631TRACK OF THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. 4632 4633RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 4634TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 4635REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 4636INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 4637FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 4638 4639 4640NEXT ADVISORY 4641------------- 4642NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 4643 4644$$ 4645FORECASTER BEVEN 4646 4647 4648 4649000 4650 4651WTNT33 KNHC 172031 4652TCPAT3 4653BULLETIN 4654HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 4655NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 4656400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 4657 4658...KARL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...EXPECTED TO 4659WEAKEN FASTER... 4660 4661 4662SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 4663---------------------------------------------- 4664LOCATION...19.1N 96.6W 4665ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 4666MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR 4667PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 4668MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES 4669 4670 4671WATCHES AND WARNINGS 4672-------------------- 4673CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 4674 4675THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND 4676WARNINGS. 4677 4678SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 4679 4680THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 4681 4682FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR 4683PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 4684 4685 4686DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 4687------------------------------ 4688AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED 4689NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING 4690TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A MOTION 4691TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 469248 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE 4693FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. 4694 4695MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... 4696WITH HIGHER GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. KARL IS NOW 4697A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND 4698SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH KARL EXPECTED TO 4699WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE 4700MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. 4701 4702HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM 4703THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 470480 MILES...130 KM. 4705 4706ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. 4707 4708 4709HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 4710---------------------- 4711STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD 4712SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER 4713INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE 4714AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 4715 4716WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE 4717CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE TRACK 4718OF THE CENTER TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD 4719SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER 4720THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS 4721CAN BE EVEN GREATER. 4722 4723RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 4724TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST 4725REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 4726INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 4727FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 4728 4729 4730NEXT ADVISORY 4731------------- 4732NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 4733NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 4734 4735$$ 4736FORECASTER BEVEN 4737 4738 4739 4740000 4741 4742WTNT33 KNHC 172336 4743TCPAT3 4744BULLETIN 4745TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A 4746NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 4747700 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 4748 4749...KARL WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO... 4750 4751 4752SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 4753---------------------------------------------- 4754LOCATION...18.8N 97.1W 4755ABOUT 75 MI..115 KM E OF PUEBLA MEXICO 4756MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/HR 4757PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 4758MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES 4759 4760 4761WATCHES AND WARNINGS 4762-------------------- 4763 4764THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 4765 4766FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 4767PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 4768 4769 4770DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 4771------------------------------ 4772AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS 4773LOCATED WELL INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 477497.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 4775KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS 4776EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 4777CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO 4778TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 4779 4780SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT 4781KARL IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 4782WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 4783GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE 4784CENTER. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARL IS EXPECTED TO 4785WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND 4786DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. 4787 4788TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM. 4789 4790ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. 4791 4792 4793HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 4794---------------------- 4795 4796WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR 4797THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE 4798TRACK OF THE CENTER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AS KARL 4799WEAKENS. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND 4800MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN 4801THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. 4802 4803RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 4804TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED 4805AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD 4806CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 4807 4808 4809NEXT ADVISORY 4810------------- 4811NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 4812 4813$$ 4814FORECASTER AVILA 4815 4816 4817 4818000 4819 4820WTNT33 KNHC 180232 4821TCPAT3 4822BULLETIN 4823TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 4824NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 48251000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 4826 4827...KARL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF 4828SOUTHERN MEXICO... 4829 4830SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 4831----------------------------------------------- 4832LOCATION...18.6N 97.4W 4833ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUEBLA MEXICO 4834MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR 4835PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR 4836MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 4837 4838 4839WATCHES AND WARNINGS 4840-------------------- 4841 4842THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 4843 4844DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 4845------------------------------ 4846AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL 4847WAS LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.4 4848WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 4849MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48506 TO 12 HOURS. 4851 4852MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 4853KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 4854NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. 4855 4856ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 4857 4858 4859HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 4860---------------------- 4861 4862RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 4863ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN 4864MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE 4865MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS 4866AND MUD SLIDES. 4867 4868NEXT ADVISORY 4869------------- 4870NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 4871 4872$$ 4873FORECASTER AVILA 4874 4875 4876 4877000 4878 4879WTNT33 KNHC 180830 4880TCPAT3 4881BULLETIN 4882TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 16 4883NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 4884400 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010 4885 4886...KARL DISSIPATES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... 4887 4888 4889SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 4890---------------------------------------------- 4891LOCATION...18.5N 97.6W 4892ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 4893MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/HR 4894PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR 4895MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 4896 4897 4898WATCHES AND WARNINGS 4899-------------------- 4900 4901THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 4902 4903 4904DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 4905------------------------------ 4906AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL 4907ARE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST. THE 4908SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR... 4909AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. 4910 4911MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE TO DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH...35 4912KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE 4913SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER TODAY. 4914 4915ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. 4916 4917 4918HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 4919---------------------- 4920RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 4921ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. 4922THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD 4923SLIDES. 4924 4925 4926NEXT ADVISORY 4927------------- 4928THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 4929CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. 4930 4931$$ 4932FORECASTER BLAKE 4933 4934 4935