1WTNT41 KNHC 291453
2TCDAT1
3TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010
51100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
6
7BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE
8SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE YESTERDAY.
9ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF
10SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED
11ORGANIZATION AND THE SURFACE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO
12TROPICAL STORM NICOLE.
13
14SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
15THAT THE CENTER OF NICOLE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST
16OF CUBA AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING.  SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE
17CYCLONE CORE CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE
18STRONGEST WINDS STILL OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
19THE CENTER.  THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
20EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  THE GLOBAL
21MODELS SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
22NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL OR
23NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST
24TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
25OF DAYS.  NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND
26THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS THE
27EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMES THE DOMINANT EVENT.  THE NEW NHC
28TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS
29DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
30PREDICTED.  GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...
31UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
32
33BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
34FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM NICOLE IS
35HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND
36CUBA.
37
38FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
39
40INITIAL      29/1500Z 22.6N  80.6W    35 KT
41 12HR VT     30/0000Z 24.7N  79.8W    35 KT
42 24HR VT     30/1200Z 29.4N  78.4W    35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
43 36HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
44
45$$
46FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
47
48
49
50WTNT41 KNHC 292055
51TCDAT1
52TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED
53NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010
54500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
55
56CORRECTED INITIAL STATUS
57
58SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
59NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CENTER...
60WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
61THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE 12Z GFS AND
62ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
63EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
64TONIGHT.  THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF
65NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
66UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
67
68HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO
69CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
70CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
71RAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
72
73FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
74
75INITIAL      29/2100Z 24.5N  80.0W    35 KT...DISSIPATED NEAR
76 12HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
77
78$$
79FORECASTER BROWN
80
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