1WTNT41 KNHC 291453 2TCDAT1 3TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 51100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 6 7BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE 8SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE YESTERDAY. 9ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF 10SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BASED ON THE IMPROVED 11ORGANIZATION AND THE SURFACE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO 12TROPICAL STORM NICOLE. 13 14SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE 15THAT THE CENTER OF NICOLE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST 16OF CUBA AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE 17CYCLONE CORE CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE 18STRONGEST WINDS STILL OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 19THE CENTER. THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH 20EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL 21MODELS SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE 22NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL OR 23NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST 24TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 25OF DAYS. NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND 26THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS THE 27EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMES THE DOMINANT EVENT. THE NEW NHC 28TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS 29DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY 30PREDICTED. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SCENARIO...HOWEVER... 31UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. 32 33BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR 34FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM NICOLE IS 35HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND 36CUBA. 37 38FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 39 40INITIAL 29/1500Z 22.6N 80.6W 35 KT 41 12HR VT 30/0000Z 24.7N 79.8W 35 KT 42 24HR VT 30/1200Z 29.4N 78.4W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL 43 36HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED 44 45$$ 46FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH 47 48 49 50WTNT41 KNHC 292055 51TCDAT1 52TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED 53NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 54500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 55 56CORRECTED INITIAL STATUS 57 58SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF 59NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER... 60WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND 61THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND 62ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN 63EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES 64TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF 65NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE 66UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 67 68HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO 69CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE 70CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 71RAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT. 72 73FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 74 75INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.5N 80.0W 35 KT...DISSIPATED NEAR 76 12HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED 77 78$$ 79FORECASTER BROWN 80 81 82 83