1WTNT33 KNHC 112031 2TCPAT3 3BULLETIN 4TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 5NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 6500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 7 8...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HURRICANE 9WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 10 11 12SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 13---------------------------------------------- 14LOCATION...16.0N 84.0W 15ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS 16ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 17MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR 18PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 19MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 20 21 22WATCHES AND WARNINGS 23-------------------- 24CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 25 26THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE 27COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING 28COZUMEL. 29 30THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 31COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA. 32 33THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR 34THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA 35BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. 36 37SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 38 39A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 40* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN... 41INCLUDING COZUMEL 42 43A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 44* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE 45HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS 46* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA 47GRUESA 48 49A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 50SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS 51BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 52WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR 53DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE 54RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 55 56A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 57IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM 58CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO 59WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 60 61FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 62PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 63 64 65DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 66------------------------------ 67AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS 68LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. PAULA IS 69MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD 70THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE 71TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 72PAULA WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND 73TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA 74TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 75 76DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 77THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH 78HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND PAULA IS 79EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. 80 81TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM 82FROM THE CENTER. 83 84THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER 85AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 86 87 88HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 89---------------------- 90WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL 91STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 92EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY 93LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY 94WEDNESDAY. 95 96RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 97OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS 98...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 9910 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA 100AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 101FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 102 103STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING 104ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS 105OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 106LARGE WAVES. 107 108 109NEXT ADVISORY 110------------- 111NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. 112NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 113 114$$ 115FORECASTER BRENNAN 116 117 118WTNT33 KNHC 112337 119TCPAT3 120BULLETIN 121TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A 122NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 123800 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 124 125...PAULA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS 126OF EASTERN HONDURAS... 127 128 129SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 130---------------------------------------------- 131LOCATION...16.4N 84.3W 132ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS 133ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 134MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR 135PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 136MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES 137 138 139WATCHES AND WARNINGS 140-------------------- 141CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 142 143THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE 144COAST OF BELIZE. 145 146SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 147 148A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 149* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN... 150INCLUDING COZUMEL 151 152A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 153* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE 154HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS 155* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA 156GRUESA 157 158A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 159* THE COAST OF BELIZE 160 161A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 162SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS 163BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 164WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR 165DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE 166RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 167 168A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 169EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THAT TROPICAL 170STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 171MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 172 173A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 174POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 175TO 36 HOURS. 176 177FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 178PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 179 180 181DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 182------------------------------ 183AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS 184LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. PAULA IS 185MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD 186THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE 187TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 188PAULA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND APPROACH 189THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE 190WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 191 192MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR... 193WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND 194PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. 195 196TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM 197FROM THE CENTER. 198 199THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. 200 201 202HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 203---------------------- 204WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL 205STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 206EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY 207LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY 208WEDNESDAY. 209 210RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 211OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS... 212AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 21310 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA 214AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 215FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 216 217STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING 218ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS 219OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 220LARGE WAVES. 221 222 223NEXT ADVISORY 224------------- 225NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 226 227$$ 228FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI 229 230 231WTNT33 KNHC 120244 232TCPAT3 233BULLETIN 234TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 235NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 2361100 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 237 238...PAULA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE 239SOON... 240 241 242SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 243----------------------------------------------- 244LOCATION...16.8N 84.6W 245ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS 246ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 247MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR 248PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR 249MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES 250 251 252WATCHES AND WARNINGS 253-------------------- 254CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 255 256THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING 257NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN 258ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF 259CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. 260 261SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 262 263A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 264* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 265INCLUDING COZUMEL 266 267A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 268* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE 269HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS 270* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA 271GRUESA 272* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 273 274A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 275* THE COAST OF BELIZE 276 277A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 278SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS 279BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 280WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR 281DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE 282RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 283 284A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 285EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THAT TROPICAL 286STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 287MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 288 289A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 290POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 291TO 36 HOURS. 292 293FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 294PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 295 296 297DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 298------------------------------ 299AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS 300LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. PAULA IS 301MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD 302THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE 303TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 304PAULA WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND 305APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE 306HURRICANE WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 307 308MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 309KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... 310AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. 311 312TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM 313FROM THE CENTER. 314 315ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. 316 317 318HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 319---------------------- 320WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL 321STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 322EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY 323LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY 324WEDNESDAY. 325 326RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 327OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF 328MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 329INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS... 330WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND 331MUDSLIDES. 332 333STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING 334ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS 335OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 336LARGE WAVES. 337 338 339NEXT ADVISORY 340------------- 341NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. 342NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. 343 344$$ 345FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI 346 347WTNT33 KNHC 120554 348TCPAT3 349BULLETIN 350TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A 351NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 352200 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010 353 354...PAULA VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... 355 356 357SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 358---------------------------------------------- 359LOCATION...17.2N 84.9W 360ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 361MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR 362PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR 363MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES 364 365 366WATCHES AND WARNINGS 367-------------------- 368CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 369 370NONE. 371 372SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 373 374A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 375* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 376INCLUDING COZUMEL 377 378A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 379* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE 380HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS 381* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA 382GRUESA 383* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 384 385A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 386* THE COAST OF BELIZE 387 388A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 389SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 39036 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 391TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE 392PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 393AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 394 395A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 396EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 397 398A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 399POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 400TO 36 HOURS. 401 402FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 403PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 404 405 406DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 407------------------------------ 408AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS 409LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS 410MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD 411THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE 412TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 413PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 414THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 415 416MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 417GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED 418TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. 419 420TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM 421FROM THE CENTER. 422 423AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM 424CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. 425 426 427HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 428---------------------- 429WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 430WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH 431HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 432 433RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 434OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF 435MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 436INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS... 437WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND 438MUDSLIDES. 439 440STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING 441ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS 442OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 443LARGE WAVES. 444 445 446NEXT ADVISORY 447------------- 448NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. 449 450$$ 451FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN 452 453 454WTNT33 KNHC 120835 455TCPAT3 456BULLETIN 457TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 458NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 459500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010 460 461...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... 462 463 464SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 465---------------------------------------------- 466LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W 467ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 468MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 469PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR 470MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES 471 472 473WATCHES AND WARNINGS 474-------------------- 475CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 476 477THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 478FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE. 479 480SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 481 482A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 483* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 484INCLUDING COZUMEL 485 486A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 487* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE 488HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS 489* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA 490GRUESA 491* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 492 493A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 494SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 495HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- 496FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT 497OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE 498RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 499 500A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 501EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 502 503FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 504PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 505 506 507DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 508------------------------------ 509AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS 510LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. PAULA IS 511MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD 512THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND 513WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL 514APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE 515HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 516 517MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 518KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON 519THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING 520IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 521 522HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 523THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 524MILES...95 KM. 525 526AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL 527PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. 528 529 530HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 531---------------------- 532WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 533WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH 534HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 535 536RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 537OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE 538YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. 539ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF 540MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING 541FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 542 543STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING 544ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS 545OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 546LARGE WAVES. 547 548 549NEXT ADVISORY 550------------- 551NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. 552NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. 553 554$$ 555FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN 556 557 558WTNT33 KNHC 120838 559TCPAT3 560BULLETIN 561HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED 562NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 563500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010 564 565CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN HEADER 566 567...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... 568 569 570SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 571---------------------------------------------- 572LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W 573ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 574MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 575PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR 576MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES 577 578 579WATCHES AND WARNINGS 580-------------------- 581CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 582 583THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 584FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE. 585 586SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 587 588A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 589* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 590INCLUDING COZUMEL 591 592A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 593* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE 594HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS 595* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA 596GRUESA 597* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 598 599A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 600SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 601HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- 602FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT 603OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE 604RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 605 606A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 607EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 608 609FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 610PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 611 612 613DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 614------------------------------ 615AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS 616LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. PAULA IS 617MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD 618THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND 619WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL 620APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE 621HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 622 623MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 624KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON 625THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING 626IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 627 628HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 629THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 630MILES...95 KM. 631 632AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL 633PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. 634 635 636HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 637---------------------- 638WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 639WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH 640HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 641 642RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 643OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE 644YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. 645ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF 646MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING 647FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 648 649STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING 650ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS 651OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 652LARGE WAVES. 653 654 655NEXT ADVISORY 656------------- 657NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. 658NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. 659 660$$ 661FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN 662 663 664WTNT33 KNHC 120844 665TCPAT3 666BULLETIN 667HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED 668NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 669500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010 670 671CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN DISCUSSION SECTION 672 673...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... 674 675 676SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 677---------------------------------------------- 678LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W 679ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 680MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 681PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR 682MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES 683 684 685WATCHES AND WARNINGS 686-------------------- 687CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 688 689THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 690FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE. 691 692SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 693 694A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 695* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 696INCLUDING COZUMEL 697 698A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 699* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE 700HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS 701* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA 702GRUESA 703* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 704 705A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 706SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 707HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- 708FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT 709OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE 710RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 711 712A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 713EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 714 715FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 716PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 717 718 719DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 720------------------------------ 721AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 722LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. PAULA IS 723MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD 724THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND 725WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL 726APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE 727HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 728 729MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 730KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON 731THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING 732IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 733 734HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 735THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 736MILES...95 KM. 737 738AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL 739PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. 740 741 742HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 743---------------------- 744WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 745WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH 746HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 747 748RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 749OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE 750YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. 751ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF 752MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING 753FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 754 755STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING 756ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS 757OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 758LARGE WAVES. 759 760 761NEXT ADVISORY 762------------- 763NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. 764NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. 765 766$$ 767FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN 768 769 770WTNT33 KNHC 121141 771TCPAT3 772BULLETIN 773HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A 774NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 775700 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 776 777...PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 778STRENGTH... 779 780 781SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 782---------------------------------------------- 783LOCATION...18.1N 85.4W 784ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 785MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 786PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR 787MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES 788 789 790WATCHES AND WARNINGS 791-------------------- 792CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 793 794THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM 795WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...AND THE BAY ISLANDS. 796 797SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 798 799A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 800* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 801INCLUDING COZUMEL 802 803A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 804* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA 805GRUESA 806* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 807 808A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 809SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 810HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- 811FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT 812OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE 813RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 814 815A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 816EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 817 818FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR 819PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 820 821 822DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 823------------------------------ 824AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 825LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST. PAULA IS 826MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD 827THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND 828WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL 829APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE 830HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 831 832MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 833GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE 834CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 835HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING 836THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 837 838HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 839THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 840MILES...95 KM. 841 842ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. 843 844 845HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 846---------------------- 847WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 848WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH 849HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 850 851RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 852OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 853AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS 854OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 855 856STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING 857ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE 858SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. 859 860 861NEXT ADVISORY 862------------- 863NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 864 865$$ 866FORECASTER AVILA 867 868 869WTNT33 KNHC 121440 870TCPAT3 871BULLETIN 872HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 873NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 8741000 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 875 876...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA POSES A THREAT TO EASTERN YUCATAN AND 877WESTERN CUBA... 878 879 880SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 881----------------------------------------------- 882LOCATION...18.6N 85.7W 883ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 884MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 885PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR 886MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES 887 888 889WATCHES AND WARNINGS 890-------------------- 891CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 892 893NONE 894 895SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 896 897A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 898* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 899INCLUDING COZUMEL 900 901A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 902* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA 903GRUESA 904* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 905 906A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 907SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 908HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- 909FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT 910OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE 911RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 912 913A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 914EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 915 916FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 917PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 918 919 920DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 921------------------------------ 922AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 923LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST. PAULA IS 924MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN 925TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE 926FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST 927OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT 928AND WEDNESDAY. 929 930MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 931GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. 932PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE 933WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 934HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK PAULA 935LATER TODAY. 936 937HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 938THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 939MILES...95 KM. 940 941ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. 942 943 944HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 945---------------------- 946WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 947WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE 948CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 949 950RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 951OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 952AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS 953OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER 954CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 955LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 956 957STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING 958ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE 959SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. 960 961 962NEXT ADVISORY 963------------- 964NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 965NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 966 967$$ 968FORECASTER AVILA 969 970 971WTNT33 KNHC 121738 972TCPAT3 973BULLETIN 974HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 975NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 9761245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 977 978...AIR FORCE HURRICANE PLANE FINDS PAULA WITH 100 MPH WINDS... 979...THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY... 980 981SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION 982----------------------------------------------- 983LOCATION...18.8N 85.8W 984ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 985MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR 986PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR 987MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES 988 989 990WATCHES AND WARNINGS 991-------------------- 992CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 993 994NONE 995 996SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 997 998A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 999* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 1000INCLUDING COZUMEL 1001 1002A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1003* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA 1004GRUESA 1005* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 1006 1007A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 1008SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 1009HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- 1010FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT 1011OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE 1012RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 1013 1014A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1015EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 1016 1017FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1018PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1019 1020 1021DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1022------------------------------ 1023AT 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 1024LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS 1025MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN 1026TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST 1027TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE 1028YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT 1029AND WEDNESDAY. 1030 1031MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 1032KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON 1033THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING 1034IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. 1035 1036HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 1037THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 1038MILES...95 KM. 1039 1040LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE 1041RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. 1042 1043 1044HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1045---------------------- 1046WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 1047WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE 1048CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 1049 1050RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 1051OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 1052AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS 1053OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER 1054CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 1055LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 1056 1057STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING 1058ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE 1059SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. 1060 1061 1062NEXT ADVISORY 1063------------- 1064 1065NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 1066 1067$$ 1068FORECASTER AVILA/BERG 1069 1070 1071WTNT33 KNHC 122043 1072TCPAT3 1073BULLETIN 1074HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 1075NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1076400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 1077 1078...HURRICANE PAULA...WITH 100 MPH WINDS...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN 1079CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE 1080PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA... 1081 1082 1083SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 1084---------------------------------------------- 1085LOCATION...19.2N 86.0W 1086ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 1087ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 1088MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR 1089PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 1090MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES 1091 1092 1093WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1094-------------------- 1095CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1096 1097THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE 1098PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. 1099 1100THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING 1101SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL. 1102 1103SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1104 1105A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1106* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 1107INCLUDING COZUMEL 1108* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA 1109 1110A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1111* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 1112 1113A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 1114SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 1115HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- 1116FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT 1117OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE 1118RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 1119 1120A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1121EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 1122 1123FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1124PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1125 1126 1127DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1128------------------------------ 1129AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED 1130NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING 1131TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TO THE 1132NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF 1133PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER 1134WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. 1135 1136MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 1137GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 1138HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT 1139AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. 1140 1141PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 1142TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE 1143WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. 1144 1145ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. 1146 1147 1148HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1149---------------------- 1150WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 1151WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO BY TONIGHT...WITH 1152HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD 1153BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE WEDNESDAY. 1154 1155RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 1156OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 1157AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS 1158OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER 1159CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 1160LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 1161 1162STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL 1163FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER 1164EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS 1165MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 1166COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1167LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1168 1169 1170NEXT ADVISORY 1171------------- 1172NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 1173NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 1174 1175$$ 1176FORECASTER AVILA/BERG 1177 1178 1179WTNT33 KNHC 122341 1180TCPAT3 1181BULLETIN 1182HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A 1183NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1184700 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 1185 1186...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 1187EXTREME WESTERN CUBA... 1188 1189 1190SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 1191---------------------------------------------- 1192LOCATION...19.6N 86.0W 1193ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 1194ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 1195MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR 1196PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 1197MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES 1198 1199 1200WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1201-------------------- 1202CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1203 1204NONE. 1205 1206SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1207 1208A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1209* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 1210INCLUDING COZUMEL 1211* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA 1212 1213A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1214* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 1215 1216FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1217PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1218 1219 1220DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1221------------------------------ 1222AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED 1223NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING 1224TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH 1225A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN 1226TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. 1227ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 1228ON WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR 1229EARLY THURSDAY. 1230 1231MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 1232GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 1233HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT 1234AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN 1235THEREAFTER. 1236 1237PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 1238TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE 1239WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. 1240 1241ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. 1242 1243 1244HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1245---------------------- 1246WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 1247WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO BY TONIGHT...WITH 1248HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM 1249FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE 1250WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY 1251NIGHT. 1252 1253RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 1254OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 1255AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS 1256OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER 1257CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 1258LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 1259 1260STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL 1261FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER 1262EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS 1263MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 1264COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1265LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1266 1267 1268NEXT ADVISORY 1269------------- 1270NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 1271 1272$$ 1273FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI 1274 1275 1276WTNT33 KNHC 130239 1277TCPAT3 1278BULLETIN 1279HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 1280NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 12811000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 1282 1283...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...MOVING TOWARD 1284THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA... 1285 1286 1287SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 1288----------------------------------------------- 1289LOCATION...19.9N 86.0W 1290ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 1291ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 1292MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR 1293PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 1294MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES 1295 1296 1297WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1298-------------------- 1299CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1300 1301THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING 1302SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN. 1303 1304SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1305 1306A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1307* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 1308INCLUDING COZUMEL 1309* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA 1310 1311A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1312* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 1313 1314FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1315PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1316 1317 1318DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1319------------------------------ 1320AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 1321LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS 1322MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION 1323WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD 1324THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE 1325OF PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR 1326OR OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. 1327 1328MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH 1329HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE 1330SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS 1331EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN 1332THEREAFTER. 1333 1334PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 1335TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE 1336WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. 1337 1338ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. 1339 1340 1341HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1342---------------------- 1343WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 1344WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...WITH 1345HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM 1346FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE 1347WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY 1348NIGHT. 1349 1350RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 1351OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 1352AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS 1353OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER 1354CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 1355LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 1356 1357STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL 1358FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER 1359EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS 1360MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 1361COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1362LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1363 1364 1365NEXT ADVISORY 1366------------- 1367NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. 1368NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 1369 1370$$ 1371FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI 1372 1373 1374WTNT33 KNHC 130551 1375TCPAT3 1376BULLETIN 1377HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A 1378NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1379100 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 1380 1381...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING SMALL 1382HURRICANE PAULA SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... 1383 1384 1385SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 1386---------------------------------------------- 1387LOCATION...20.4N 86.0W 1388ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO 1389ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 1390MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR 1391PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 1392MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES 1393 1394 1395WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1396-------------------- 1397CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1398 1399NONE. 1400 1401SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1402 1403A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1404* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 1405INCLUDING COZUMEL 1406* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA 1407 1408A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1409* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 1410 1411FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1412PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1413 1414 1415DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1416------------------------------ 1417AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 1418LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS 1419MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION 1420IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 1421WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THIS 1422AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA SHOULD 1423REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR OVER 1424WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. 1425 1426MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH 1427HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE 1428SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE 1429TODAY...BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. 1430 1431PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 1432TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 1433WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. 1434 1435ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. 1436 1437 1438HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1439---------------------- 1440WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST 1441WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW 1442HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. 1443TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN 1444CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON 1445WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 1446 1447RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 1448OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 1449AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS 1450OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER 1451CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 1452LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 1453 1454STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL 1455FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER 1456EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS 1457MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 1458COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1459LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1460 1461 1462NEXT ADVISORY 1463------------- 1464NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 1465 1466$$ 1467FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN 1468 1469 1470WTNT33 KNHC 130851 1471TCPAT3 1472BULLETIN 1473HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 1474NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1475400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 1476 1477...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 1478AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...STILL PACKING 100 MPH WINDS... 1479 1480 1481SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 1482---------------------------------------------- 1483LOCATION...20.7N 86.0W 1484ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO 1485ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 1486MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR 1487PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 1488MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES 1489 1490 1491WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1492-------------------- 1493CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1494 1495NONE. 1496 1497SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1498 1499A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1500* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 1501INCLUDING COZUMEL 1502* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA 1503 1504A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1505* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 1506 1507FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 1508PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1509 1510 1511DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1512------------------------------ 1513AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED 1514NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING 1515TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 1516EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 1517WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THIS 1518AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA 1519SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR 1520OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. 1521 1522AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY 1523INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 1524KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON 1525THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN 1526STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS 1527EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. 1528 1529HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM 1530THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 1531MILES...95 KM. 1532 1533ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. 1534 1535 1536HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1537---------------------- 1538WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MEXICAN COAST 1539WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH 1540HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM- 1541FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS 1542AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT. 1543 1544RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 1545OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES 1546POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF 1547MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL 1548AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 1549RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER 1550NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 1551 1552STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 15534 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 1554AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL 1555BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE IS 1556EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST 1557OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 1558 1559 1560NEXT ADVISORY 1561------------- 1562NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. 1563NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 1564 1565$$ 1566FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN 1567 1568 1569WTNT33 KNHC 131132 1570TCPAT3 1571BULLETIN 1572HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A 1573NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1574700 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 1575 1576...SMALL BUT STRONG HURRICANE PAULA MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN 1577CHANNEL... 1578 1579 1580SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 1581---------------------------------------------- 1582LOCATION...21.3N 85.9W 1583ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CANCUN MEXICO 1584ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 1585MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR 1586PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 1587MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES 1588 1589 1590WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1591-------------------- 1592CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1593 1594NONE. 1595 1596SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1597 1598A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1599* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... 1600INCLUDING COZUMEL 1601* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA 1602 1603A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1604* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE 1605 1606THE WARNINGS FOR YUCATAN MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER 1607THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE 1608MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1609 1610 1611DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1612------------------------------ 1613AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 1614ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. PAULA IS 1615MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL 1616MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE 1617NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY 1618THIS AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA 1619WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...AND BE NEAR 1620OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. 1621 1622MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH 1623HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE 1624SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS 1625EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. 1626 1627HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM 1628THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 1629MILES...95 KM. 1630 1631ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. 1632 1633 1634HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1635---------------------- 1636WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST 1637WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT 1638GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE 1639EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1640HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT. 1641 1642RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 1643OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES 1644POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF 1645MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 1646LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 1647 1648STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 16494 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 1650AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL 1651BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE IS 1652EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST 1653OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS 1654MORNING. 1655 1656 1657NEXT ADVISORY 1658------------- 1659NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 1660 1661$$ 1662FORECASTER AVILA 1663 1664 1665WTNT33 KNHC 131445 1666TCPAT3 1667BULLETIN 1668HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 1669NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 16701000 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 1671 1672...PAULA EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON...EYE CLEARLY 1673SEEN ON CANCUN AND WESTERN CUBAN RADARS... 1674 1675 1676SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 1677----------------------------------------------- 1678LOCATION...21.3N 85.8W 1679ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO 1680ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 1681MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR 1682PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR 1683MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES 1684 1685 1686WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1687-------------------- 1688CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1689 1690A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 1691CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. 1692 1693THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR 1694THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM 1695WARNING FROM CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE. 1696 1697SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1698 1699A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1700* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA 1701 1702A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1703* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE 1704 1705A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...- 1706* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 1707TORTUGAS 1708 1709A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1710POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1711 1712FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 1713STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 1714WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO 1715YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS 1716ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1717 1718 1719DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1720------------------------------ 1721AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 1722LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS 1723MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...BUT THE HURRICANE 1724SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST LATER TODAY. ON THIS 1725TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 1726OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA 1727BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. 1728 1729MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH 1730HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE 1731SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS 1732EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN 1733TONIGHT. 1734 1735PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 1736TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE 1737WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. 1738 1739ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. 1740 1741 1742HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1743---------------------- 1744WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION 1745OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING 1746THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. 1747TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN 1748CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY 1749TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 1750FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY. 1751 1752RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 1753OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES 1754POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF 1755MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 1756LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 1757 1758STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 17594 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 1760AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL 1761BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1762 1763 1764NEXT ADVISORY 1765------------- 1766NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 1767NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 1768 1769$$ 1770FORECASTER AVILA/BERG 1771 1772 1773WTNT33 KNHC 131754 1774TCPAT3 1775BULLETIN 1776HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A 1777NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1778100 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 1779 1780...PAULA HESITATES...SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 1781TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON... 1782 1783 1784SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 1785---------------------------------------------- 1786LOCATION...21.5N 85.7W 1787ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 1788MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR 1789PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY 1790MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES 1791 1792 1793WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1794-------------------- 1795CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1796 1797NONE. 1798 1799SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1800 1801A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1802* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA 1803 1804A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1805* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE 1806 1807A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...- 1808* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 1809TORTUGAS 1810 1811A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1812POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1813 1814FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 1815STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 1816WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO 1817YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS 1818ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1819 1820 1821DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1822------------------------------ 1823AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 1824LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST. PAULA HAS 1825MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE 1826TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...LATER TODAY. ON 1827THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL BE NEAR OR OVER 1828WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. 1829 1830MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH 1831HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE 1832SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE 1833RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT PAULA MIGHT HAVE WEAKENED A 1834LITTLE. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS NOT CHECKED THE ENTIRE HURRICANE 1835YET. NEVERTHELESS...PAULA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. 1836 1837PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 1838TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE 1839WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. 1840 1841ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 1842WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. 1843 1844 1845HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1846---------------------- 1847WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION 1848OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING 1849THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. 1850TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN 1851CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY 1852TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 1853FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY. 1854 1855RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 1856OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES 1857POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF 1858MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 1859LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 1860 1861STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 18624 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 1863AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL 1864BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1865 1866 1867NEXT ADVISORY 1868------------- 1869NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 1870 1871$$ 1872FORECASTER AVILA/BERG 1873 1874 1875WTNT33 KNHC 132041 1876TCPAT3 1877BULLETIN 1878HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 1879NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1880400 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 1881 1882...PAULA BEGINS TO WEAKEN...WEATHER DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN 1883CUBA... 1884 1885SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 1886---------------------------------------------- 1887LOCATION...21.7N 85.6W 1888ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 1889MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR 1890PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR 1891MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES 1892 1893 1894WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1895-------------------- 1896CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1897 1898THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 1899PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA. 1900 1901THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE 1902YUCATAN PENINSULA. 1903 1904SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1905 TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION 1906OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING 1907THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. 1908A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1909* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO 1910 1911A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1912* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA 1913 1914A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...- 1915* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 1916TORTUGAS 1917 1918A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1919POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1920 1921FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 1922STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 1923WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO 1924YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS 1925ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 1926 1927 1928DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1929------------------------------ 1930AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED 1931NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING 1932TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE 1933NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA 1934WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY 1935THURSDAY. 1936 1937MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 1938KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON 1939THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS 1940EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 1941 1942HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM 1943THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 1944MILES...95 KM. 1945 1946ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 1947WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. 1948 1949 1950HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1951---------------------- 1952WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME 1953WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY 1954EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND 1955MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY. 1956 1957RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 1958OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES 1959POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF 1960MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 1961LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 1962 1963STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 19644 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 1965AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL 1966BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 1967 1968 1969NEXT ADVISORY 1970------------- 1971NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 1972NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 1973 1974$$ 1975FORECASTER AVILA/BERG 1976 1977 1978WTNT33 KNHC 132343 1979TCPAT3 1980BULLETIN 1981HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A 1982NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1983700 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 1984 1985...SMALL PAULA INCHING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA... 1986 1987 1988SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 1989---------------------------------------------- 1990LOCATION...21.8N 85.6W 1991ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 1992MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR 1993PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR 1994MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES 1995 1996 1997WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1998-------------------- 1999CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2000 2001NONE. 2002 2003SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2004 2005A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2006* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO 2007 2008A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2009* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA 2010 2011A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2012* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 2013TORTUGAS 2014 2015A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2016POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 2017 2018FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2019STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 2020WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO 2021YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS 2022ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2023 2024 2025DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2026------------------------------ 2027AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED 2028NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING 2029TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE 2030NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA 2031WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY 2032THURSDAY. 2033 2034MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 2035GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 2036HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE 2037NEXT DAY OR TWO. 2038 2039PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 2040TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE 2041WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. 2042 2043ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. 2044 2045 2046HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2047---------------------- 2048WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME 2049WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY 2050EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND 2051MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY. 2052 2053RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 2054OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES 2055POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF 2056MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 2057LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 2058 2059STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 20604 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 2061AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL 2062BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2063 2064 2065NEXT ADVISORY 2066------------- 2067NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 2068 2069$$ 2070FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE 2071 2072 2073WTNT33 KNHC 140236 2074TCPAT3 2075BULLETIN 2076HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 2077NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 20781000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 2079 2080...PAULA WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA... 2081 2082 2083SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 2084----------------------------------------------- 2085LOCATION...21.9N 85.4W 2086ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 2087MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR 2088PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR 2089MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES 2090 2091 2092WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2093-------------------- 2094CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2095 2096NONE. 2097 2098SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2099 2100A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2101* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO 2102 2103A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2104* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA 2105 2106A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2107* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 2108TORTUGAS 2109 2110FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2111STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 2112WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO 2113YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS 2114ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2115 2116 2117DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2118------------------------------ 2119AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 2120LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST. PAULA IS 2121MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE 2122EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK... 2123PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA ON THURSDAY. 2124 2125MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 2126KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON 2127THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING 2128THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL 2129STORM ON THURSDAY. 2130 2131PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 2132TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE 2133WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. 2134 2135ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. 2136 2137 2138HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2139---------------------- 2140WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME 2141WESTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY 2142EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND 2143MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY. 2144 2145RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 2146OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES 2147POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF 2148MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 2149LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 2150 2151STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 21522 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 2153AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL 2154BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2155 2156 2157NEXT ADVISORY 2158------------- 2159NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. 2160NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 2161 2162$$ 2163FORECASTER BROWN 2164 2165 2166WTNT33 KNHC 140550 2167TCPAT3 2168BULLETIN 2169HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A 2170NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 2171100 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010 2172 2173...EYE OF PAULA NEARING WESTERN TIP OF CUBA... 2174 2175 2176SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 2177---------------------------------------------- 2178LOCATION...22.2N 85.2W 2179ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 2180MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR 2181PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/HR 2182MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES 2183 2184 2185WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2186-------------------- 2187CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2188 2189NONE. 2190 2191SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2192 2193A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2194* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO 2195 2196A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2197* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA 2198 2199A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2200* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 2201TORTUGAS 2202 2203FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2204STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 2205MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2206FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE 2207THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 2208METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2209 2210 2211DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2212------------------------------ 2213AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS 2214LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. PAULA IS 2215MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE 2216EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... 2217PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. 2218 2219MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 2220GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 2221HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 2222TWO...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. 2223 2224PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 2225TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE 2226WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. 2227 2228ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. 2229 2230 2231HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2232---------------------- 2233WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME 2234WESTERN CUBA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS 2235FORECAST BY LATER TODAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE 2236LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY. 2237 2238RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 2239OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES 2240POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF 2241MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 2242LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2243 2244STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 22452 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 2246AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL 2247BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2248 2249 2250NEXT ADVISORY 2251------------- 2252NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 2253 2254$$ 2255FORECASTER BEVEN 2256 2257 2258WTNT33 KNHC 140857 2259TCPAT3 2260BULLETIN 2261HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 2262NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 2263400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010 2264 2265...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULA A LITTLE WEAKER... 2266 2267 2268SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 2269---------------------------------------------- 2270LOCATION...22.3N 84.9W 2271ABOUT 30 MI...60 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 2272ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA 2273MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 2274PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR 2275MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 2276 2277 2278WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2279-------------------- 2280CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2281 2282NONE. 2283 2284SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2285 2286A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2287* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO 2288 2289A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2290* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA 2291 2292A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2293* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 2294TORTUGAS 2295 2296FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2297STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 2298MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2299FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE 2300THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 2301METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2302 2303 2304DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2305------------------------------ 2306AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED 2307NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING 2308TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE 2309EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... 2310PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. 2311 2312MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 2313GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 2314SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE 2315CENTER MOVES OVER CUBA AND ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL 2316WINDS...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER 2317TODAY. 2318 2319PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 2320OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL 2321STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. 2322 2323THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 2324HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. 2325 2326 2327HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2328---------------------- 2329WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME 2330WESTERN CUBA...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 2331SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND 2332MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY. 2333 2334RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 2335OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES 2336POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF 2337MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 2338LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2339 2340STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 23412 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 2342AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL 2343BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2344 2345 2346NEXT ADVISORY 2347------------- 2348NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. 2349NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 2350 2351$$ 2352FORECASTER BEVEN 2353 2354 2355WTNT33 KNHC 141139 2356TCPAT3 2357BULLETIN 2358HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A 2359NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 2360700 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010 2361 2362...PAULA HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...FORECAST TO 2363WEAKEN... 2364 2365 2366SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 2367---------------------------------------------- 2368LOCATION...22.7N 84.5W 2369ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM...W OF PUERTO ESPERANZA 2370ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA 2371MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR 2372PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR 2373MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 2374 2375 2376WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2377-------------------- 2378CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2379 2380THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE 2381PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. 2382 2383SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2384 2385A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2386* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA 2387HABANA 2388 2389A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2390* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 2391TORTUGAS 2392 2393FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2394STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 2395WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO 2396YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS 2397ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2398 2399 2400DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2401------------------------------ 2402AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED 2403NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING 2404TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE 2405EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... 2406PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR OVER WESTERN 2407CUBA TODAY. 2408 2409MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 2410GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE 2411CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 2412HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PAULA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 2413STORM LATER TODAY. 2414 2415PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 2416OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL 2417STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. THE WEATHER 2418STATION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A 60 2419MPH...97 KM/HR WIND GUST. 2420 2421THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 2422HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. 2423 2424 2425HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2426---------------------- 2427WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME 2428WESTERN CUBA TODAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND 2429MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY. 2430 2431RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 2432OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES 2433POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF 2434MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 2435LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2436 2437STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 24382 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 2439AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL 2440BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2441 2442 2443NEXT ADVISORY 2444------------- 2445NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 2446 2447$$ 2448FORECASTER AVILA 2449 2450 2451WTNT33 KNHC 141436 2452TCPAT3 2453BULLETIN 2454TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 2455NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 24561100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 2457 2458...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING 2459ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... 2460 2461 2462SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 2463----------------------------------------------- 2464LOCATION...22.8N 84.1W 2465ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA 2466MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR 2467PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR 2468MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 2469 2470 2471WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2472-------------------- 2473CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2474 2475NONE. 2476 2477SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2478 2479A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2480* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA 2481HABANA 2482 2483A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2484* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 2485TORTUGAS 2486 2487FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2488STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 2489MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2490FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE 2491THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 2492METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2493 2494 2495DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2496------------------------------ 2497AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS 2498LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. PAULA IS 2499MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...BUT A TURN 2500TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL 2501CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER 2502CUBA TODAY. 2503 2504MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 2505KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST 2506DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL 2507DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY. 2508 2509TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM 2510FROM THE CENTER. 2511 2512ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE 2513AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. 2514 2515 2516HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2517---------------------- 2518WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN 2519CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO 2520INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY. 2521 2522RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN 2523ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA 2524DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 252510 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL 2526RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD 2527SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA 2528KEYS. 2529 2530STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 25312 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 2532AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. 2533THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2534 2535 2536NEXT ADVISORY 2537------------- 2538NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. 2539NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. 2540 2541$$ 2542FORECASTER AVILA 2543 2544 2545WTNT33 KNHC 141750 2546TCPAT3 2547BULLETIN 2548TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A 2549NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 2550200 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 2551 2552...CENTER OF PAULA NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA ON THE NORTH COAST OF PINAR 2553DEL RIO PROVINCE CUBA... 2554 2555SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 2556---------------------------------------------- 2557LOCATION...22.8N 83.5W 2558ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF PUERTO ESPERANZA CUBA 2559ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA 2560MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR 2561PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR 2562MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 2563 2564 2565WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2566-------------------- 2567CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2568 2569NONE. 2570 2571SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2572 2573A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2574* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA 2575HABANA 2576 2577A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2578* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 2579TORTUGAS 2580 2581 2582FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2583STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 2584WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO 2585YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS 2586ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2587 2588 2589DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2590------------------------------ 2591THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA IS MOVING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF 2592CUBA JUST EAST OF PUERTO ESPERANZA. AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE 2593CENTER OF PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 259483.5 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 2595KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE 2596NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH 2597COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER CUBA TODAY. 2598 2599PAULA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE 2600DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME 2601ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA 2602COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY. 2603 2604TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM 2605FROM THE CENTER. 2606 2607ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. 2608 2609 2610HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2611---------------------- 2612WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING EASTWARD 2613ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS 2614COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE 2615TODAY. 2616 2617RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN 2618ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA 2619DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 262010 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL 2621RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD 2622SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 2623FLORIDA KEYS. 2624 2625STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 26262 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN 2627AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THE 2628SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2629 2630 2631NEXT ADVISORY 2632------------- 2633NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. 2634 2635$$ 2636FORECASTER AVILA 2637 2638 2639WTNT33 KNHC 142044 2640TCPAT3 2641BULLETIN 2642TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 2643NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 2644500 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 2645 2646...PAULA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WIND GUSTS TO 68 MPH...110 2647KM/HR REPORTED NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA... 2648 2649 2650SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 2651---------------------------------------------- 2652LOCATION...22.8N 82.8W 2653ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA 2654MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR 2655PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 2656MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 2657 2658 2659WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2660-------------------- 2661CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2662 2663NONE. 2664 2665SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2666 2667A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2668* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA 2669HABANA 2670 2671A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2672* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY 2673TORTUGAS 2674 2675THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIKELY BE 2676DISCONTINUED TONIGHT. 2677 2678FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2679STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 2680WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO 2681YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS 2682ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2683 2684 2685DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2686------------------------------ 2687AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS 2688CENTERED OVER CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST. 2689PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS 2690GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON 2691THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL 2692CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. 2693 2694MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 2695KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL 2696AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST 2697DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL 2698DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY. 2699 2700TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM 2701MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. LA PALMA NEAR PUERTO 2702ESPERANZA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...110 KM/HR...AND BAHIA 2703HONDA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR. 2704 2705ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. 2706 2707HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2708---------------------- 2709WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD 2710ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH 2711COAST. WINDS COULD INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS 2712TONIGHT. 2713 2714RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN 2715ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA 2716DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 271710 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL 2718RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD 2719SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 2720FLORIDA KEYS. 2721 2722STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 27232 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG 2724THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE 2725ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2726 2727 2728NEXT ADVISORY 2729------------- 2730NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. 2731NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 2732 2733$$ 2734FORECASTER AVILA 2735 2736 2737WTNT33 KNHC 142344 2738TCPAT3 2739BULLETIN 2740TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A 2741NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 2742800 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 2743 2744...PAULA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA...WIND GUST 2745TO 54 MPH REPORTED IN HAVANA... 2746 2747 2748SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 2749---------------------------------------------- 2750LOCATION...23.0N 82.0W 2751ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA 2752ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA 2753MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR 2754PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR 2755MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 2756 2757 2758WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2759-------------------- 2760CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2761 2762THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS 2763HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. 2764 2765SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2766 2767A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2768* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD 2769DE LA HABANA 2770 2771FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2772STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 2773MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2774FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE 2775THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 2776METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2777 2778 2779DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2780------------------------------ 2781AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT 2782RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AND SURFACE 2783OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA 2784WAS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 2785NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. PAULA PASSED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF 2786HAVANA CUBA THIS EVENING AROUND 6 PM EDT...2200 UTC. PAULA IS 2787MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL 2788MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE 2789FORECAST TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND 2790CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. 2791 2792MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR... 2793WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE 2794NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING 2795THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL 2796DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY. 2797 2798TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM 2799MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 280041 MPH...67 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED 2801IN HAVANA DURING THE PAST HOUR. 2802 2803ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. 2804 2805 2806HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2807---------------------- 2808WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD 2809ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH 2810COAST. 2811 2812RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN 2813ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA 2814DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 281510 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL 2816RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD 2817SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN 2818THE FLORIDA KEYS. 2819 2820STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 28212 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG 2822THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE 2823ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 2824 2825 2826NEXT ADVISORY 2827------------- 2828NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 2829 2830$$ 2831FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE 2832 2833 2834WTNT33 KNHC 150239 2835TCPAT3 2836BULLETIN 2837TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 2838NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 28391100 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 2840 2841...PAULA SKIRTING THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR VERADERO... 2842 2843 2844SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 2845----------------------------------------------- 2846LOCATION...23.1N 81.4W 2847ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA 2848ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA 2849MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR 2850PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR 2851MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 2852 2853 2854WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2855-------------------- 2856CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2857 2858THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA. 2859 2860SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2861 2862THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 2863 2864FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2865STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 2866MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2867FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE 2868THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 2869METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2870 2871 2872DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2873------------------------------ 2874AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS 2875LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. PAULA IS 2876MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION 2877IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN 2878TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS 2879FORECAST ON SATURDAY. 2880 2881MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... 2882WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE 2883NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL 2884DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY. 2885 2886TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 288795 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 2888 2889ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. 2890 2891 2892HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2893---------------------- 2894WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD EASTWARD NEAR THE 2895COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. 2896 2897RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN 2898ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL 2899BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND UP TO AN INCH ACROSS 2900PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PRODUCE 2901ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF 2902CUBA. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE 2903LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2904 2905STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 29061 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG 2907THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY 2908SUBSIDE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 2909 2910 2911NEXT ADVISORY 2912------------- 2913NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. 2914 2915$$ 2916FORECASTER STEWART 2917 2918 2919WTNT33 KNHC 150832 2920TCPAT3 2921BULLETIN 2922TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 2923NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 2924500 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010 2925 2926...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF 2927CENTRAL CUBA... 2928 2929 2930SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 2931---------------------------------------------- 2932LOCATION...23.1N 80.2W 2933ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA 2934ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA 2935MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR 2936PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR 2937MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES 2938 2939 2940WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2941-------------------- 2942THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 2943 2944 2945DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2946------------------------------ 2947AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA 2948WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST. THE 2949DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS 2950GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD 2951SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST 2952AND SOUTH IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. 2953 2954MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... 2955WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE 2956NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW 2957PRESSURE AREA BY SATURDAY. 2958 2959ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. 2960 2961 2962HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2963---------------------- 2964RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN 2965ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL 2966BAHAMAS THROUGH SATURDAY. 2967 2968STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CENTRAL 2969CUBA SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. 2970 2971 2972NEXT ADVISORY 2973------------- 2974NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. 2975 2976$$ 2977FORECASTER BEVEN 2978 2979 2980WTNT33 KNHC 151431 2981TCPAT3 2982BULLETIN 2983TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 2984NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 29851100 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010 2986 2987...PAULA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... 2988 2989 2990SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 2991----------------------------------------------- 2992LOCATION...22.8N 79.5W 2993ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF CAIBARIEN CUBA 2994MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/HR 2995PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR 2996MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES 2997 2998 2999WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3000-------------------- 3001THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 3002 3003 3004DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3005------------------------------ 3006AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 3007LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD 3008THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE 3009UNTIL DISSIPATION. 3010 3011MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 3012GUSTS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 3013 3014ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. 3015 3016 3017HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3018---------------------- 3019RAINFALL...THE LOW COULD STILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 3020OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH 3021SATURDAY. 3022 3023 3024NEXT ADVISORY 3025------------- 3026THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 3027CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. 3028 3029$$ 3030FORECASTER AVILA 3031 3032 3033