1WTNT45 KNHC 290254 2TCDAT5 3TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 51100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010 6 7SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION 8ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS 9BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED 10CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION 11TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE 12HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE 13OF HOURS. THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT 14AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC. BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE 15BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE 16EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. SINCE THERE IS 17ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE 18SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE 19SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL 20CYCLONE. 21 22THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20. IT APPEARS THAT 23THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 24HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION. 25SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND 26THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST. THE TROPICAL STORM IS 27EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE 28NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH 29MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE 30IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE 31FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE 32SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF. FOR NOW THE SLOWER 33SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN 34THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 35 36IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL 37CYCLONE. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO 38DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME 39STRENGTHENING. AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN 40EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GLOBAL 41MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS 42AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE 43SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS. 44 45FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 46 47INITIAL 29/0300Z 27.3N 63.7W 35 KT 48 12HR VT 29/1200Z 29.6N 65.4W 40 KT 49 24HR VT 30/0000Z 32.8N 63.9W 45 KT 50 36HR VT 30/1200Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 51 48HR VT 31/0000Z 39.3N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 52 72HR VT 01/0000Z 43.5N 45.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 53 96HR VT 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED 54 55$$ 56FORECASTER BROWN/BERG 57 58 59WTNT45 KNHC 290835 60TCDAT5 61TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 62NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 63500 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010 64 65ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF SHARY IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED...A LARGE BURST OF 66CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE 67SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL THAN EARLIER AS ITS 68DISTANCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS INCREASING AND THE CLOUD 69PATTERN IS LESS DISTORTED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT 70FROM TAFB/SAB...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. THE 71TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION IN 72AN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR. AFTER THAT 73TIME...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS THE STORM 74MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. SHARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 75EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT IS ABSORBED 76INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAY 3. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY 77SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE OFFICIAL 78FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. NOTE THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF 79BOTH SHOW SHARY BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH 80SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR FORECAST AT THAT 81TIME. 82 83THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 325/16...A BIT SLOWER THAN 84EARLIER. SHARY IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 85EARLY SATURDAY AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH COLLAPSES AS A MID-LATITUDE 86SWINGS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 87RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM...THOUGH THE 88SPEED DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE NEW FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SLOWER 89SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND 90ECMWF...AND IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 91 92FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 93 94INITIAL 29/0900Z 28.5N 65.0W 35 KT 95 12HR VT 29/1800Z 30.8N 65.1W 45 KT 96 24HR VT 30/0600Z 33.9N 62.0W 45 KT 97 36HR VT 30/1800Z 37.7N 56.3W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 98 48HR VT 31/0600Z 42.5N 48.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 99 72HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED 100 101$$ 102FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN 103 104 105WTNT45 KNHC 291436 106TCDAT5 107TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 108NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 1091100 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010 110 111SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHARY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY 112DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DROPPED TO 113THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE 114VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING FROM AN EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION... 115CAUSING THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE 116CIRCULATION CENTER. DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS ALSO 117WRAPPED INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS...RESULTING IN 118EROSION OF CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS. THE INITIAL ESTIMATE REMAINS 119AT 35 KT FOR THIS BASED ON SHEAR-PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY 120ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. 121 122THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. SHARY IS POSSIBLY PREPARING 123TO MAKE A SHARP CUSP IN THE TRACK...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AND 124NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE SMALL 125UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE SHORT TERM MOTION 126WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES. AFTER THAT...AN EASTWARD-MOVING 127MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST 128COAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE 129CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS...AND ACCELERATE SHARY RAPIDLY TO THE 130NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS 131TRACK SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD 132SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 133ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. 134 135THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AND REMAIN BELOW 10 136KT FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WHILE SHARY REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS 137NEAR 26C. THE LOW SHEAR AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES 138ALOFT...AS NOTED IN THE 11Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...SHOULD 139ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...RESULTING 140IN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...HOWEVER... 141STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD KICK IN AND HELP THE 142CYCLONE TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS 143THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE GFDL AND 144HWRF MODELS MAKE SHARY A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS 145EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE VERY COOL SSTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING 146OVER AT THAT TIME. AS A RESULT...THOSE INTENSITY FORECAST SCENARIOS 147HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 148PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. 149 150 151FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 152 153INITIAL 29/1500Z 29.6N 66.2W 35 KT 154 12HR VT 30/0000Z 32.2N 64.5W 40 KT 155 24HR VT 30/1200Z 35.6N 60.0W 45 KT 156 36HR VT 31/0000Z 39.9N 52.9W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 157 48HR VT 31/1200Z 45.0N 43.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 158 72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED 159 160$$ 161FORECASTER STEWART 162 163 164WTNT45 KNHC 291456 165TCDAT5 166TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED 167NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 1681100 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010 169 170CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE TO BE 325/08 171 172SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHARY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY 173DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DROPPED TO 174THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE 175VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING FROM AN EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION... 176CAUSING THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE 177CIRCULATION CENTER. DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS ALSO 178WRAPPED INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS...RESULTING IN 179EROSION OF CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS. THE INITIAL ESTIMATE REMAINS 180AT 35 KT FOR THIS BASED ON SHEAR-PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY 181ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. 182 183THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08. SHARY IS POSSIBLY PREPARING 184TO MAKE A SHARP CUSP IN THE TRACK...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AND 185NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE SMALL 186UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE SHORT TERM MOTION 187WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES. AFTER THAT...AN EASTWARD-MOVING 188MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST 189COAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE 190CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS...AND ACCELERATE SHARY RAPIDLY TO THE 191NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS 192TRACK SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD 193SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 194ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. 195 196THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AND REMAIN BELOW 10 197KT FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WHILE SHARY REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS 198NEAR 26C. THE LOW SHEAR AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES 199ALOFT...AS NOTED IN THE 11Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...SHOULD 200ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...RESULTING 201IN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...HOWEVER... 202STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD KICK IN AND HELP THE 203CYCLONE TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS 204THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE GFDL AND 205HWRF MODELS MAKE SHARY A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS 206EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE VERY COOL SSTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING 207OVER AT THAT TIME. AS A RESULT...THOSE INTENSITY FORECAST SCENARIOS 208HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 209PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. 210 211 212FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 213 214INITIAL 29/1500Z 29.6N 66.2W 35 KT 215 12HR VT 30/0000Z 32.2N 64.5W 40 KT 216 24HR VT 30/1200Z 35.6N 60.0W 45 KT 217 36HR VT 31/0000Z 39.9N 52.9W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 218 48HR VT 31/1200Z 45.0N 43.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 219 72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED 220 221$$ 222FORECASTER STEWART 223 224 225WTNT45 KNHC 292059 226TCDAT5 227TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 228NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 229500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010 230 231AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SHARY MEASURED 232A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 233KT...AND A MAXIMUM SFMR ESTIMATED WIND OF 53 KT. A SUBSEQUENT 234ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1442 UTC INDICATED BELIEVABLE WINDS IN THE 45-50 235KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE 236INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 237 238THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS 239STRONG SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER 240TROUGH...SHOULD IMPACT THE CYCLONE SOON. IN ADDITION...SHARY IS 241CURRENTLY OVER ABOUT 25 C WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING OVER 242PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 243NONETHELESS...NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME 244ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC 245ENHANCEMENTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS SHARY TRANSITIONING 246TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOMING 247ABSORBED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN AGREEMENT 248WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. 249 250SHARY IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE 251NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE 252CYCLONE IS STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NEW 253OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE 254PREVIOUS ONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION. 255 256FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 257 258INITIAL 29/2100Z 30.9N 65.0W 55 KT 259 12HR VT 30/0600Z 33.1N 62.6W 60 KT 260 24HR VT 30/1800Z 36.8N 56.8W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 261 36HR VT 31/0600Z 41.3N 48.9W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 262 48HR VT 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT 263 264$$ 265FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART 266 267 268WTNT45 KNHC 300237 269TCDAT5 270TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 271NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 2721100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010 273 274DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING AND HAS EXPANDED A BIT 275OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. 276EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 277WITHIN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WERE 73 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL...AND 60 KT 278BASED ON AN SFMR WIND ESTIMATION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL 279INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SHARY IS MOVING 280WITHIN A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...NOW 20-30 KT...AND 281IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SHEAR 282ALONG WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE A 283WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY 284INDICATES THAT A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING 285BERMUDA...AND INTERACTION WITH SHARY SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. 286THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION DIAGRAMS FOR THE GFS/UKMET/CMC 287UNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT SHARY WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO AN 288EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE 289OFFICIAL FORECAST. 290 291THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD...050/18. THIS 292GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY 293TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS 294TRANSITION TO A NON-TROPICAL LOW. THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF 295POST-TROPICAL SHARY SHOULD BE SHORT...AS ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE 296MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL 297ZONE IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 298GFS...ECMWF...AND THE UKMET...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE 299PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 300 301 302FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 303 304INITIAL 30/0300Z 31.9N 63.3W 60 KT 305 12HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 59.0W 50 KT 306 24HR VT 31/0000Z 38.2N 51.7W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 307 36HR VT 31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT 308 309$$ 310FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN 311 312 313WTNT45 KNHC 300836 314TCDAT5 315HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 316NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 317500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010 318 319SHARY POSES A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE 320IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME 321MORE SYMMETRIC NEAR THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...TRMM PASSES FROM 322OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE 32337-GHZ CHANNEL. WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN EARLIER 324...THEY ARE FAR FROM SUPPORTING HURRICANE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH 325THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE CLEARLY NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL. 326THE DEEPENING OF CONVECTION AND THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY 327SUGGEST A FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SHARY AND AT LEAST A NOMINAL 328INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM THE 60 KT OBSERVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT. 329NORMALLY A 5-KT WIND ADJUSTMENT WOULD NOT REQUIRE THIS MUCH 330DISCUSSION...BUT A CHANGE IN STATUS DOES COMPLICATE MATTERS. IT IS 331HARD TO DISCOUNT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND THE SIGNIFICANT 332IMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED...THUS 333THE INITIAL WINDS ARE NUDGED UPWARD TO 65 KT. THIS IS A GOOD CASE 334OF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE 335THE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE. 336 337THE TRMM PASSES AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT 338SHARY HAS ACCELERATED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW SPEEDING 339NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO 340CONTINUE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY 341MID-LATITUDE FLOW. A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING SHARY IS 342EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW 343WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ABSORBING THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE 344GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRANSITION...AND THE 345NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL 346MOTION AND THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. SHARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN 347SOON DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 34876F. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS 349ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS. 350 351FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 352 353INITIAL 30/0900Z 33.6N 59.4W 65 KT 354 12HR VT 30/1800Z 35.7N 54.6W 55 KT 355 24HR VT 31/0600Z 38.5N 48.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 356 36HR VT 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT 357 358$$ 359FORECASTER BLAKE 360 361 362WTNT45 KNHC 301436 363TCDAT5 364HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 365NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 3661100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010 367 368SHARY REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A 369STRONG COLD FRONT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT 370SHARY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL EYE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 85-GHZ 371CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION 372HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHARY IS BEING 373HELD AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE MICROWAVE 374PRESENTATION AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE 375WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND 376OVER COOLER WATER. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SHARY INTERACTING 377WITH THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING ABSORBED ALONG THE 378BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND 379NOGAPS MODELS SHOW LESS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT AND MOVE SHARY 380SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS APPEAR UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE 381CURRENT PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS 382THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. 383 384THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN DEEP-LAYER 385SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 386055/35. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL SHARY BECOMES 387ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED 388A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE 389MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. 390 391FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 392 393INITIAL 30/1500Z 35.9N 55.6W 65 KT 394 12HR VT 31/0000Z 38.0N 50.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 395 24HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED 396 397$$ 398FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 399 400 401WTNT45 KNHC 302034 402TCDAT5 403TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 404NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 405500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010 406 407SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW 408INTERACTING WITH SHARY AND THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS 409SUGGEST THAT CYCLONE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. 410BASED ON THESE DATA...SHARY IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL 411CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS STORM 412FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. 413 414THE POST-TROPICAL STORM IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 42 KT. 415THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES 416ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. 417 418FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 419 420INITIAL 30/2100Z 39.2N 50.9W 60 KT 421 12HR VT 31/0600Z 42.8N 44.2W 55 KT...DISSIPATED 422 24HR VT 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED 423 424$$ 425FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 426 427 428