1WTNT43 KNHC 221503
2TCDAT3
3TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
51100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
6
7THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE
8PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE
9CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
10TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS
11CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
12CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A
13LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON
14HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A
15STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD
16ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN
17THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...
18NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
19
20BECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.
21THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13
22KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
23EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
24STATES.  THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
25WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
26STRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE
27RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO
28INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
29THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
30EARLIER.
31
32AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP
33TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
34
35
36FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
37
38INITIAL      22/1500Z 21.9N  75.0W    30 KT
39 12HR VT     23/0000Z 22.6N  76.8W    35 KT
40 24HR VT     23/1200Z 23.8N  80.0W    40 KT
41 36HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N  83.2W    40 KT
42 48HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  86.5W    40 KT
43 72HR VT     25/1200Z 28.0N  91.5W    45 KT
44 96HR VT     26/1200Z 31.0N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND
45120HR VT     27/1200Z 33.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
46
47$$
48FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
49
50
51WTNT43 KNHC 222032
52TCDAT3
53TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
54NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
55500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
56
57AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE
58DEPRESSION AND FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 30
59KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 1006 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT
60BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANZIED THAN EARLIER TODAY WITH THE CENTER NOW
61ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. THE
62OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE
63SOUTHWEST WHERE THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
64AT 30 KNOTS BUT ONLY A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...AS
65EXPECTED...WILL RESULT IN SOME INTENSIFICATION. NONE OF THE
66GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LARGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH...PERHAPS DUE TO
67THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW. THE
68OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENEROUS COMPARED TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
69BUT IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
70
71THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
72AN UPPER-LOW OVER FLORIDA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE BEST
73ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
74HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AS INDICATED BY MOST
75OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
76DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE
77WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK
78GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE CYCLONE
79ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
80SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
81
82
83FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
84
85INITIAL      22/2100Z 22.7N  75.4W    30 KT
86 12HR VT     23/0600Z 23.8N  77.5W    35 KT
87 24HR VT     23/1800Z 24.5N  80.5W    45 KT
88 36HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N  83.7W    45 KT
89 48HR VT     24/1800Z 26.5N  86.5W    45 KT
90 72HR VT     25/1800Z 29.0N  91.0W    45 KT
91 96HR VT     26/1800Z 32.5N  93.0W    25 KT...INLAND
92120HR VT     27/1800Z 34.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
93
94$$
95FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
96
97
98