1WTNT33 KNHC 232033
2TCPAT3
3
4BULLETIN
5TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
7500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011
8
9...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
10
11
12SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
13----------------------------------------------
14LOCATION...15.9N 81.9W
15ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
16MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
17PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
18MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
19
20
21WATCHES AND WARNINGS
22--------------------
23CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
24
25THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
26PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER.
27
28SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
29
30A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
31* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
32NICARAGUA BORDER
33
34A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
35POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
36
37FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
38PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
39
40
41DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
42------------------------------
43AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
44EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST.
45THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
46THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
47TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
48THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
49NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
50
51MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
52GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
53TWO AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
54TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
55
56THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
57RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
58
59
60HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
61----------------------
62RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
63ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
64ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
65FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
66
67
68NEXT ADVISORY
69-------------
70NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
71NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
72
73$$
74FORECASTER BROWN
75
76
77WTNT33 KNHC 232337
78TCPAT3
79
80BULLETIN
81TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
82NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
83800 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011
84
85...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
86NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
87
88
89SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
90----------------------------------------------
91LOCATION...16.1N 82.0W
92ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
93MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
94PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
95MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
96
97
98WATCHES AND WARNINGS
99--------------------
100CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
101
102NONE.
103
104SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
105
106A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
107* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
108NICARAGUAN BORDER
109
110A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
111POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
112
113FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
114PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
115
116
117DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
118------------------------------
119AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST.
121THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
12217 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN
123TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED ON
124MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
125EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING
126THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
127
128MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
129GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
130INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS. GRADUAL
131STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
132DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT
133OR ON MONDAY.
134
135THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE
136RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NOAA BUOY IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
137
138
139HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
140----------------------
141RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
142ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
143ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
144FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
145AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
146
147
148NEXT ADVISORY
149-------------
150NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
151
152$$
153FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN
154
155
156