1WTNT33 KNHC 232033 2TCPAT3 3 4BULLETIN 5TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 7500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011 8 9...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... 10 11 12SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 13---------------------------------------------- 14LOCATION...15.9N 81.9W 15ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER 16MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H 17PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H 18MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES 19 20 21WATCHES AND WARNINGS 22-------------------- 23CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 24 25THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM 26PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER. 27 28SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 29 30A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 31* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE 32NICARAGUA BORDER 33 34A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 35POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 36 37FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 38PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 39 40 41DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 42------------------------------ 43AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 44EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. 45THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. 46THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A 47TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... 48THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE 49NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 50 51MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 52GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 53TWO AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM 54TONIGHT OR MONDAY. 55 56THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE 57RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. 58 59 60HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 61---------------------- 62RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN 63ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH 64ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 65FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 66 67 68NEXT ADVISORY 69------------- 70NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. 71NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 72 73$$ 74FORECASTER BROWN 75 76 77WTNT33 KNHC 232337 78TCPAT3 79 80BULLETIN 81TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A 82NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 83800 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011 84 85...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE 86NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... 87 88 89SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 90---------------------------------------------- 91LOCATION...16.1N 82.0W 92ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER 93MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H 94PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 95MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES 96 97 98WATCHES AND WARNINGS 99-------------------- 100CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 101 102NONE. 103 104SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 105 106A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 107* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE 108NICARAGUAN BORDER 109 110A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 111POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 112 113FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 114PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 115 116 117DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 118------------------------------ 119AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. 121THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 12217 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN 123TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED ON 124MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS 125EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING 126THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 127 128MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 129GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 130INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS. GRADUAL 131STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE 132DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT 133OR ON MONDAY. 134 135THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE 136RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NOAA BUOY IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. 137 138 139HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 140---------------------- 141RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN 142ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH 143ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 144FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL 145AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. 146 147 148NEXT ADVISORY 149------------- 150NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 151 152$$ 153FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN 154 155 156