1WTNT42 KNHC 242056 2TCDAT2 3 4TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 6500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011 7 8A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF 9THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS RESULT...THE 10INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH 11THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT. 12UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS BEEN 13SLOWLY IMPROVING. 14 15THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 16CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO 17MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG 18SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48-72 19HOURS...A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W 20LONGITUDE AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD 21OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 22PHILIPPE SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... 23AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED 24SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD 25INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN. 26 27THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN IS EXPECTED TO BE 28DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST AND THE 29THERMODYNAMICS ARE THE GREATEST. BY 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY 30VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT...WHICH MAY 31NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. 32AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 3348-72 HOURS...AND THEN LEVEL OFF SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST BY THE 34SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH 35NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE 36PHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5. 37 38FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 39 40INIT 24/2100Z 11.2N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 41 12H 25/0600Z 11.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 42 24H 25/1800Z 12.5N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 43 36H 26/0600Z 13.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 44 48H 26/1800Z 14.8N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 45 72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 46 96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 47120H 29/1800Z 22.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48 49$$ 50FORECASTER STEWART 51 52 53WTNT42 KNHC 250255 54TCDAT2 55 56TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 57NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 581100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011 59 60A 2344 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER PHILIPPE INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER 61IS LOCATED VERY NEAR A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THAT 62THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE PROBABLY BARELY 35 KT. SINCE THE CONVECTION 63HAS BEEN ON A GENERAL UPWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF 64HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. 65 66PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL 67RIDGE...AND THAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN 68NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IN THE COMING DAYS AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS 69OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...THE MOTION OF THE 70CYCLONE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY 295/10 KT...IS FORECAST TO TURN 71NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS PHILIPPE MOVES BETWEEN THESE TWO 72SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS 73UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS...AFTER WHICH TIME THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 74SLOWER AND WESTWARD-LEANING MOTION WHILE THE BULK OF THE OTHER 75MODELS INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. A 76SLOWER MOTION IS FAVORED SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND 77THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE GFS BY DAY 5. 78 79THE FORECAST TRACK OF PHILIPPE NEVER REALLY TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER 80SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS...AND THE UNDERLYING OCEAN SHOULD 81DEFINITELY BE COOLER AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION...PHILIPPE 82SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS 83INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. 84THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE NEXT 48 85HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL 86FORECAST LIES GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS 87PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE 48-72 HOUR TIME FRAME. 88 89FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 90 91INIT 25/0300Z 11.6N 28.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 92 12H 25/1200Z 12.1N 30.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 93 24H 26/0000Z 13.1N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 94 36H 26/1200Z 14.1N 34.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 95 48H 27/0000Z 15.4N 35.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96 72H 28/0000Z 18.0N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 97 96H 29/0000Z 21.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 98120H 30/0000Z 24.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 99 100$$ 101FORECASTER BERG 102 103 104WTNT42 KNHC 250833 105TCDAT2 106 107TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 108NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 109500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011 110 111PHILIPPE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 112SEVERAL HOURS. THE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS 113WIDENED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED. 114SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED AND 115NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING 116OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PHILIPPE 117REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...AND THE 118OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 119HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN 120SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THIS LESS 121CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE 122FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM 123GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL MODEL. 124 125THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT TO 126THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD 127AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF 128SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. 129THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE PHILIPPE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER 130THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 131IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WAS NUDGED WESTWARD AT 132THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF 133MODELS. 134 135FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 136 137INIT 25/0900Z 12.0N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 138 12H 25/1800Z 12.8N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 139 24H 26/0600Z 13.9N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 140 36H 26/1800Z 14.9N 34.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 141 48H 27/0600Z 16.2N 35.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 142 72H 28/0600Z 18.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 143 96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 144120H 30/0600Z 25.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 145 146$$ 147FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 148 149 150WTNT42 KNHC 251458 151TCDAT2 152 153TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 154NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1551100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011 156 157PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A 158NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE 159CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON 160A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 161KT FROM SAB. 162 163THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 164CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN 165IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PHILIPPE MOVING TOWARD A DEVELOPING 166WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND GRADUALLY 167TURNING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MOVING NORTHWARD 168AFTER THAT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING RECURVATURE TO 169THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF MODEL. OUT OF RESPECT 170FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY 171A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 172FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 173AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVN AND TVCA. 174 175MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE 176MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING 177THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...PHILLIPE IS EXPECTED TO 178EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND BE MOVING 179OVER SUB-27C SSTS AND INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL 180FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH 181GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK 182REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT BELOW THE MORE 183ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH STILL INSIST THAT PHILLIPE WILL 184BE NEAR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD. 185 186FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 187 188INIT 25/1500Z 12.5N 30.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 189 12H 26/0000Z 13.3N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 190 24H 26/1200Z 14.4N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 191 36H 27/0000Z 15.5N 34.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 192 48H 27/1200Z 16.7N 35.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 193 72H 28/1200Z 19.3N 37.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 194 96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 195120H 30/1200Z 26.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 196 197$$ 198FORECASTER STEWART 199 200 201WTNT42 KNHC 252047 202TCDAT2 203 204TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 205NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 206500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011 207 208THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED OVER THE 209PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG A CURVED BAND 210LOCATED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION... 211AND A CDO-LIKE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. 212DVORAK ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY HAVE INCREASED SINCE THE LAST 213ADVISORY...AND A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL 214INTENSITY OF 50 KT. 215 216PHILIPPE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE 217SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 218NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS 219THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS 220SOME MODELS RECURVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST... 221WHILE OTHERS ALLOW THE RIDGE TO REBUILD...RESULTING IN A MORE 222WESTWARD TRACK. THIS DISCREPANCY IS LIKELY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY 223OF PHILIPPE...AS A DEEPER AND STRONGER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE 224FARTHER NORTH...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED TO THE WEST 225BY LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS 226SHIFTED WESTWARD...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION 227ACCORDINGLY. 228 229THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR 230INTENSIFICATION. THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 231FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...PHILIPPE WILL BEGIN 232INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A 233SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY... 234THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE 235STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED 236SUBSTANTIALLY...AND THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR PHILIPPE TO 237APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 238 239FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 240 241INIT 25/2100Z 13.2N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 242 12H 26/0600Z 14.0N 33.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 243 24H 26/1800Z 15.1N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 244 36H 27/0600Z 16.1N 35.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 245 48H 27/1800Z 17.3N 36.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 246 72H 28/1800Z 20.0N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 247 96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 248120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 249 250$$ 251FORECASTER ZELINSKY/STEWART 252 253 254WTNT42 KNHC 260240 255TCDAT2 256 257TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 258NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2591100 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011 260 261RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE 262IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT 263HAS PULSED A COUPLE OF TIMES SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPEARANCE 264OF THE CYCLONE ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY IS QUITE RAGGED... 265AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE 266LATEST ADT ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KT. PHILIPPE IS BEING 267KEPT AT 50 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. 268 269PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL 270RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND 271ITS MOTION IS CURRENTLY 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT. OVER THE NEXT 2 272DAYS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AS 273A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 40W LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE 274AZORES. THIS SHOULD KEEP PHILIPPE ON A NORTHWESTWARD BUT SLOWER 275TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. 276 277THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY AFTER 48 HOURS. PHILIPPE SHOULD BE 278MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE 279EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW BY DAY 3...BUT THE MODELS APPEAR 280TO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THAT WILL AFFECT THE INTENSITY. MOST OF THE 281GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A DEEP VORTEX AND TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD 282AND NORTHEASTWARD FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IN RESPONSE TO AN 283AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE AZORES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF 284MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME...PRESUMABLY 285BECAUSE IT HAS PHILIPPE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH AND BEING 286STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. ASSUMING THAT THE REAL STORY WILL END 287UP BEING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...THE NHC TRACK 288FORECAST IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS BUT 289SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE WEAKER 290ECMWF. 291 292THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS PHILIPPE REACHING 293HURRICANE STATUS...BUT IT STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING AND IS HIGHER 294THAN ALL OF THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS. GRADUAL 295WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE MOVES OVER 296INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND IS AFFECTED BY STRONGER SHEAR. 297 298 299FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 300 301INIT 26/0300Z 14.1N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 302 12H 26/1200Z 15.0N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 303 24H 27/0000Z 16.0N 34.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 304 36H 27/1200Z 16.9N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 305 48H 28/0000Z 17.8N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 306 72H 29/0000Z 20.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 307 96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 308120H 01/0000Z 25.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 309 310$$ 311FORECASTER BERG 312 313 314WTNT42 KNHC 260847 315TCDAT2 316 317TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 318NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 319500 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011 320 321THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BEEN 322INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 323HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C. HOWEVER...THE CURVED BAND 324THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW LESS 325DISTINCT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT...WHICH IS THE 326AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND 327UW-CIMSS. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 0453 UTC TRMM 328OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE 329NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION. 330 331THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE 332SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM 333WEST AFRICA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW 334DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE 335INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH...AND THE MODELS ARE 336IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO. BEYOND TWO DAYS... 337HOWEVER...THE MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS 338SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER WEST...SHOWING A FAIRLY STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST 339TO NORTHWEST MOTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND 340GFDN MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE 341FORECAST PERIOD. THESE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED 342WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE 343AND THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL 344FORECAST...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...LIES BETWEEN 345THE EXTREMES AND ENDS UP NEAR THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS. 346 347THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 15-20 KT 348WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF 349THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 350AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE NOT 351FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A 352LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE 353SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...WHICH SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 24-36 354HOURS. 355 356FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 357 358INIT 26/0900Z 14.7N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 359 12H 26/1800Z 15.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 360 24H 27/0600Z 16.4N 35.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 361 36H 27/1800Z 17.3N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 362 48H 28/0600Z 18.3N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 363 72H 29/0600Z 20.8N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 364 96H 30/0600Z 23.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 365120H 01/0600Z 25.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 366 367$$ 368FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 369 370 371WTNT42 KNHC 261434 372TCDAT2 373 374TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 375NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 3761100 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011 377 378DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN OF 379PHILIPPE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 380MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE 381SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 382ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL 383INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. THE STORM IS BEING AFFECTED BY 384MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED 385OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO 386DIMINISH...ONLY SLIGHT SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE. 387WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 20N 388AND...IF THIS FLOW PERSISTS...PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE 389HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED 390FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AFTER 24 391HOURS...CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE... 392HOWEVER...THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN SHOWN HERE IN THE 393LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 394 395PHILIPPE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE MOTION 396ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/10. THE STORM SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE 397SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER 398THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES 399OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 30N...MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS 400TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH 401DEPICTS A WEAKER CYCLONE...IS AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT FORECASTS 402PHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 403PERIOD. SINCE THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE 404LATTER SCENARIO IS INDEED PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL 405FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. 406 407FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 408 409INIT 26/1500Z 15.2N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 410 12H 27/0000Z 16.0N 35.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 411 24H 27/1200Z 17.0N 36.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 412 36H 28/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 413 48H 28/1200Z 19.1N 38.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 414 72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 415 96H 30/1200Z 24.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 416120H 01/1200Z 26.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 417 418$$ 419FORECASTER PASCH 420 421 422WTNT42 KNHC 262039 423TCDAT2 424 425TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 426NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 427500 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011 428 429THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME SINCE THIS MORNING 430WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN 431PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD LINES OVER 432THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 433ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES 50 KT AGAIN FOR THE INITIAL WIND 434SPEED ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL BEING IMPEDED OVER 435THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AS PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY 436MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 437MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND ASSUMING THE SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TOO 438MUCH...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW. 439HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. 440AS PHILIPPE MOVES FARTHER NORTH...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED 441TO INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING TO COMMENCE BY 36 442TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RELIABLE 443LGEM GUIDANCE. 444 445THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW NEAR 315/7. DURING THE 446NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE 447SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE 448OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC. BY DAYS 3 TO 5...HOWEVER...THE 449TRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO 2 GENERAL CAMPS. SOME MODELS SUCH AS 450THE HWRF...GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY 451NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. 452OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET HAVE THE CYCLONE 453MISSING THE TROUGH AND BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL 454RIDGE...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. GIVEN 455THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 456OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM 72 TO 120 457HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET. 458 459FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 460 461INIT 26/2100Z 15.4N 34.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 462 12H 27/0600Z 16.1N 35.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 463 24H 27/1800Z 17.1N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 464 36H 28/0600Z 18.2N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 465 48H 28/1800Z 19.4N 38.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 466 72H 29/1800Z 22.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 467 96H 30/1800Z 23.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 468120H 01/1800Z 24.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 469 470$$ 471FORECASTER PASCH 472 473 474WTNT42 KNHC 270246 475TCDAT2 476 477TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 478NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 4791100 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011 480 481AN ASCAT PASS CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 2304 UTC...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS 482SHOWN IN THE SWATH WERE 40 KT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO 483THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE 484INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE 485INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THIS IS THE FIRST 486REAL GROUND-TRUTH DATA WE HAVE RECEIVED OVER PHILIPPE IN A COUPLE 487OF DAYS...AND THE LOWERING OF THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEEN MORE AS 488AN ADJUSTMENT RATHER THAN A WEAKENING OF THE STORM. NONETHELESS... 489PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING 490SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT 491STRENGTHENING...IF NOT INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. THE SHEAR COULD 492DIMINISH BY DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL 493COL...AND THAT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP PHILIPPE FROM 494DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS 495BEEN LOWERED PRIMARILY DUE TO THE ADJUSTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS 496CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE 497SHIPS AND LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. 498 499THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO 500ACQUIRE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT TO ITS MOTION OVER THE 501NEXT DAY OR TWO WHEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 502CYCLONE LIFTS NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NORTH OF THE 503CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK 504GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A TURN TOWARD 505THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SET...FIRST SHOWN BY THE 506ECMWF...MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. SINCE PHILIPPE IS 507FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANYWAYS...IT 508SHOULD BECOME BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH AND WOULD MOST 509LIKELY FOLLOW THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 510IS THEREFORE A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TVCA 511CONSENSUS...AND EVEN SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND AT DAY 5. 512 513FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 514 515INIT 27/0300Z 15.9N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 516 12H 27/1200Z 16.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 517 24H 28/0000Z 17.4N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 518 36H 28/1200Z 18.3N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 519 48H 29/0000Z 19.5N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 520 72H 30/0000Z 22.0N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 521 96H 01/0000Z 24.0N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 522120H 02/0000Z 25.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 523 524$$ 525FORECASTER BERG 526 527 528WTNT42 KNHC 270847 529TCDAT2 530 531TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 532NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 533500 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011 534 535PHILIPPE HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE 536THIS MORNING. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE 537DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN 538EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE 539TO ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE 540SHIPS MODEL. THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE 541SINCE THE TIME OF THE 2304 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...SO THE INITIAL 542INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR...WHICH 543IS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 544PHILIPPE...IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL 545DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A VERY GRADUAL 546WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVERSELY...THE REGIONAL 547HURRICANE MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE GAINING STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 548A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC 549ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE 550AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. 551 552THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...LOCATED 553NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN 554ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 55524 TO 36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE LIFTS OUT. 556THIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN A BIT TO THE LEFT 557WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. IN TWO 558TO THREE DAYS...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT THEN 559BYPASS PHILIPPE...CAUSING IT TO TURN NORTHWARD. IN ITS WAKE...THE 560SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ONCE AGAIN...TURNING 561PHILIPPE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT 562SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS...THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER 563AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL 564FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE 565WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 566 567FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 568 569INIT 27/0900Z 16.1N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 570 12H 27/1800Z 16.7N 35.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 571 24H 28/0600Z 17.6N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 572 36H 28/1800Z 18.7N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 573 48H 29/0600Z 19.9N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 574 72H 30/0600Z 22.3N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 575 96H 01/0600Z 24.0N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 576120H 02/0600Z 25.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 577 578$$ 579FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 580 581 582WTNT42 KNHC 271433 583TCDAT2 584 585TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 586NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 5871100 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011 588 589PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE 590LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLEARLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP 591CONVECTION. BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY 592ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB LEADS TO AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 593KT...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT 594OVERPASS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF 595DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A COL REGION IN THE UPPER- 596TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...IN GENERAL THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS 597TO BE HOSTILE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 598SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE. 599HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN 600FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE. 601 602THE STORM HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE 603INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/4. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 604AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 605BY DAYS 3 TO 5...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED 606BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF PHILIPPE. THIS 607EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT 608WITH TIME. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS 609ONE AND THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 610 611BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE REDUCED OVER THE 612SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 613 614FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 615 616INIT 27/1500Z 15.8N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 617 12H 28/0000Z 16.5N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 618 24H 28/1200Z 17.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 619 36H 29/0000Z 18.6N 38.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 620 48H 29/1200Z 19.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 621 72H 30/1200Z 22.7N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 622 96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 623120H 02/1200Z 24.5N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 624 625$$ 626FORECASTER PASCH 627 628 629WTNT42 KNHC 272037 630TCDAT2 631 632TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 633NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 634500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011 635 636WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS 637DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION MORE THAN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 638LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE 639CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT IN AGREEMENT 640WITH THE FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS 641MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE RATHER RELENTLESS OVER 642PHILIPPE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 15 KT 643BRIEFLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SSTS 644SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING OF PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 645SO...AND LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO 646THE LGEM MODEL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WELL BELOW THE DYNAMICAL 647HURRICANE MODELS WHICH CONTINUE TO INSIST ON STRENGTHENING THE 648CYCLONE DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 649PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DURING THE PERIOD 650IF THE CONVECTION BECOMES DISPLACED EVEN FARTHER FROM THE CENTER. 651 652THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 285/6... 653TAKING PHILIPPE A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. 654PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE 655NORTH...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS 656FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST- 657NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A 658BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AND FASTER FORWARD SPEED AT THE END OF THE 659PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH OF PHILIPPE. THE GUIDANCE FOR 660HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO THE LEFT AND IS ALSO FASTER FOR THIS 661CYCLE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF 662AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE 663TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT...THE 664NEW NHC TRACK STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE RELIABLE 665MODELS AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IF PHILIPPE IS BECOMING A 666SHALLOWER CYCLONE...A TRACK EVEN MORE TOWARD THE WEST THAN SHOWN 667HERE IS POSSIBLE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE ECMWF. 668 669 670FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 671 672INIT 27/2100Z 16.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 673 12H 28/0600Z 16.4N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 674 24H 28/1800Z 17.5N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 675 36H 29/0600Z 18.9N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 676 48H 29/1800Z 20.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 677 72H 30/1800Z 22.6N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 678 96H 01/1800Z 24.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 679120H 02/1800Z 25.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 680 681$$ 682FORECASTER BRENNAN 683 684 685WTNT42 KNHC 280257 686TCDAT2 687 688TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 689NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 6901100 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011 691 692SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PHILIPPE. DEEP 693CONVECTION HAS BECOME QUITE LIMITED AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS 694LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...PHILIPPE IS 695CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM...BASED ON A RECENT DVORAK 696CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB. THE SHEAR IS 697EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT 698FOR A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN ABOUT 36 AND 60 HOURS. THE SHEAR ALONG 699WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOME DRIER AIR TO THE 700NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PHILIPPE BECOMING A 701TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO 702THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND MUCH BELOW THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT 703DEEPENS THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. THE UPDATED FORECAST ALSO NOW 704SHOWS PHILIPPE BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 4-5 705DAYS...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASE FURTHER. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES 706NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY...THE 707CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER. 708 709THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE 710WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 711A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...A STRONG MID- 712TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL 713ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TURN PHILIPPE...OR ITS 714REMNANTS...MORE TOWARD THE WEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 715GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN 716ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS 717AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE 718MEAN AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 719 720 721FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 722 723INIT 28/0300Z 16.1N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 724 12H 28/1200Z 16.5N 38.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 725 24H 29/0000Z 17.7N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 726 36H 29/1200Z 19.1N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 727 48H 30/0000Z 20.6N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 728 72H 01/0000Z 22.8N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 729 96H 02/0000Z 24.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 730120H 03/0000Z 25.5N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 731 732$$ 733FORECASTER BROWN 734 735 736WTNT42 KNHC 280900 737TCDAT2 738 739TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 740NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 741500 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011 742 743DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN 744INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF 745PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WRAP AROUND 746THE CIRCULATION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE 747INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN 748AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND ADT VALUES 749FROM UW-CIMSS. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR IN 75036-48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KT OR 751HIGHER OVER PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACCORDINGLY... 752THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A 753SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER 754HAND...THE FSSE...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS 755SYSTEM AND BRING PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE LATTER 756SCENARIO APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 757CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO 758BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WHEN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN 759EXCESS OF 30 KT. 760 761PHILIPPE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT TO THE SOUTH OF 762A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING 763THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE 764TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE 765CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BEYOND 766THAT...PHILIPPE...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK 767TOWARD THE LEFT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS. THE MODEL 768GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE 769OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND BUT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE 770MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 771 772 773FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 774 775INIT 28/0900Z 16.5N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 776 12H 28/1800Z 17.2N 39.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 777 24H 29/0600Z 18.4N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 778 36H 29/1800Z 19.8N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 779 48H 30/0600Z 21.2N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 780 72H 01/0600Z 23.2N 45.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 781 96H 02/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 782120H 03/0600Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 783 784$$ 785FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 786 787 788WTNT42 KNHC 281434 789TCDAT2 790 791TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 792NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 7931100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011 794 795PHILIPPE REMAINS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION IS 796LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL 797CENTER IS EXPOSED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES 798FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. 799 800PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. A TURN 801TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE STORM 802APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ALL OF THE 803GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOTION WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 804THREE DAYS...UNTIL A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC 805MOVES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RESTRENGTHEN. 806THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AT DAYS 4 807AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD...IN LARGE 808PART BECAUSE OF A MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY. 809 810THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. PHILIPPE IS STILL 811STRONGLY SHEARED...AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL BE 812ABLE TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE SHIPS MODEL 813INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND 814THEN INCREASE AFTER THAT. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS 815FOR WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE AFTER 816THAT TIME. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 817DAYS. 818 819FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 820 821INIT 28/1500Z 16.4N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 822 12H 29/0000Z 17.3N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 823 24H 29/1200Z 18.3N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 824 36H 30/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 825 48H 30/1200Z 21.5N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 826 72H 01/1200Z 23.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 827 96H 02/1200Z 24.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 828120H 03/1200Z 25.0N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 829 830$$ 831FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY 832 833 834WTNT42 KNHC 282037 835TCDAT2 836 837TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 838NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 839500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011 840 841THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS 842UNCHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN 843SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN 844PERIODICALLY EXPOSED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 845REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND 846SAB. 847 848PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. 849THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL 850RIDGE...INDUCED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN 851ATLANTIC...WILL ALLOW PHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 852TWO DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD...RESULTING 853IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW 854SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN MORE WESTWARD 855MOTION AND AN INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE... 856THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION TOWARD 857THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 858 859AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR 860OVER PHILIPPE....WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 86124 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY 862DECREASE BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE TO 863MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. GIVEN THIS...THE 864THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW MAINTAINS PHILIPPE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL 865STORM FOR 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 866SUBSTANTIALLY...AND PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW 867BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 868 869FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 870 871INIT 28/2100Z 17.0N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 872 12H 29/0600Z 17.9N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 873 24H 29/1800Z 19.3N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 874 36H 30/0600Z 20.9N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 875 48H 30/1800Z 22.1N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 876 72H 01/1800Z 23.6N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 877 96H 02/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 878120H 03/1800Z 25.0N 56.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 879 880$$ 881FORECASTER BRENNAN/ZELINSKY 882 883 884WTNT42 KNHC 290256 885TCDAT2 886 887TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 888NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 8891100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011 890 891PHILIPPE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...HOWEVER DEEP 892CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL 893CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM 894TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A 895LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF PHILIPPE 896APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE 897NEXT DAY OR SO. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE 898IS FORECAST TO CUT-OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT 899IN A REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST 900NOW CALLS FOR SOME MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 90124-36 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM 902GUIDANCE. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE 903EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...IN AN AREA OF STRONG 904NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA. THIS 905SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 906ABOUT 4 DAYS. 907 908THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND THE GUIDANCE 909REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS. 910PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION 911AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 912EASTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN 913WESTWARD AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL 914ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE 915WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE 916PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE 917GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 918 919 920FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 921 922INIT 29/0300Z 17.4N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 923 12H 29/1200Z 18.3N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 924 24H 30/0000Z 19.8N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 925 36H 30/1200Z 21.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 926 48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 927 72H 02/0000Z 23.8N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 928 96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 929120H 04/0000Z 24.5N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 930 931$$ 932FORECASTER BROWN 933 934 935WTNT42 KNHC 290845 936TCDAT2 937 938TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 939NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 940500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011 941 942THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE 943SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE 944BALL OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER 945ESTIMATED TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS. SINCE THE 946OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED 947SIGNIFICANTLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. UW-CIMSS 948AND SHIPS ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DIAGNOSE CLOSE TO 20 KT OF 949SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN 950UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD LOW NEAR 17N46W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A 951BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 952HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME 953INTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST 954PERIOD. THEREAFTER...PHILIPPE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES 955AFFECTED BY EXTREMELY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED 956WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA. THIS 957ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT 958LOW BY DAY 4. 959 960SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP 961CONVECTION THE CENTER IS LOCATED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER 962UNCERTAIN 300/11. PHILIPPE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE 963WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH 964OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LATER IN THE 965FORECAST PERIOD...A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL 966ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE 967OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE 968PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 969 970FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 971 972INIT 29/0900Z 17.8N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 973 12H 29/1800Z 18.6N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 974 24H 30/0600Z 19.9N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 975 36H 30/1800Z 21.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 976 48H 01/0600Z 22.3N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 977 72H 02/0600Z 23.9N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 978 96H 03/0600Z 24.5N 56.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 979120H 04/0600Z 24.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 980 981$$ 982FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN 983 984WTNT42 KNHC 291452 985TCDAT2 986 987TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 988NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 9891100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011 990 991IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF THE POSSIBLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF 992PHILIPPE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A CIRCULAR BALL OF CONVECTION. 993CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE 994TECHNIQUES ARE 45-55 KT...BUT THE LATEST FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 35-45 995KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 40 KT. PHILIPPE IS 996EXPECTED TO BE IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 99724 HOURS OR SO...BUT WITH SUCH AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IT MAY BE 998DIFFICULT FOR THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY MUCH...IF AT ALL. BY 48 999HOURS...PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BE BLASTED BY 30 KT OF NORTHERLY 1000SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND THAT SHOULD 1001INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. ODDLY ENOUGH...MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS 1002EITHER SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE OR VERY LITTLE WEAKENING 1003DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS WHY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 1004INDICATES ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING EVEN IN THE FACE OF SEEMINGLY 1005HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. IF PHILIPPE CAN SURVIVE ITS 1006ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO DO...THEN IT MAY BE 1007ABLE TO HOLD ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN UPPER-LEVEL WINDS RELAX 1008A BIT BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS. 1009 1010PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL 1011ANTICYCLONE AND IS MOVING 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT. AS THE CYCLONE 1012CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...A SECOND 1013STRONGER MID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SUBTROPICAL 1014CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD FORCE PHILIPPE ON A MORE WESTWARD 1015COURSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK 1016GUIDANCE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL 1017FORECAST LIES A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TVCA MODEL CONSENSUS 1018IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN 1019SWITCHES TO A BIT SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS FROM 96-120 HOURS. THIS 1020FORECAST IS NOT APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. 1021 1022FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1023 1024INIT 29/1500Z 18.6N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 1025 12H 30/0000Z 19.7N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 1026 24H 30/1200Z 21.1N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 1027 36H 01/0000Z 22.3N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 1028 48H 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 1029 72H 02/1200Z 24.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 1030 96H 03/1200Z 24.5N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 1031120H 04/1200Z 24.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 1032 1033$$ 1034FORECASTER BERG 1035 1036 1037WTNT42 KNHC 292039 1038TCDAT2 1039 1040TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 1041NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1042500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011 1043 1044PHILIPPE HAS BEEN A CONUNDRUM TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS 1045BEEN ELONGATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE 1046OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE WELL TO THE 1047NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE 1048LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT YET 1049CERTAIN HOW MUCH IT IS TUCKED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. BECAUSE 1050OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 1051RUN THE GAMUT FROM 35 TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105240 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER 1053CONTINUES TO REFORM OR GET PULLED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE 1054CONVECTION. PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE 1055NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY MODELS 1056SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HOSTILE 1057CONDITIONS AND THUS ONLY SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS. 1058THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND KEEPS PHILIPPE AS A 1059TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. 1060 1061GIVEN THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310 1062DEGREES AT 11 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK 1063REASONING. PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR 1064THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES 1065UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE WESTWARD 1066MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE 1067BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY 1068FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE 1069ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS. THEREFORE...LITTLE 1070CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE 1071PREVIOUS ONE. 1072 1073FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1074 1075INIT 29/2100Z 20.2N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 1076 12H 30/0600Z 21.4N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 1077 24H 30/1800Z 22.8N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 1078 36H 01/0600Z 23.8N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 1079 48H 01/1800Z 24.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 1080 72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 1081 96H 03/1800Z 25.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 1082120H 04/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 1083 1084$$ 1085FORECASTER BERG 1086 1087 1088WTNT42 KNHC 300301 1089TCDAT2 1090 1091TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 1092NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 10931100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011 1094 1095THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PHILIPPE HAS BECOME VERY RAGGED THIS 1096EVENING. THERE ARE NO DISTINCT BANDS OF CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD 1097TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING. A TIMELY 2344 UTC ASCAT 1098PASS WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN ASSESSING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND 1099LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW AN AREA OF 110030-35 KT WINDS. WITH THE KNOWN LOW BIAS OF THAT INSTRUMENT...THE 1101INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE 1102TRICKY. IN THE SHORT TERM...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND 1103PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER. THIS FAVORS 1104SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A 1105SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS 1106FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS 1107ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA. ONE WOULD EXPECT THE 1108CYCLONE TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING AT TIME...HOWEVER MOST OF 1109THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE 1110OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. 1111 1112THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 1113EARLIER ESTIMATES...GIVING A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION 1114ESTIMATE IS 315/11. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD 1115FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE 1116BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE SHOULD 1117CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES A 1118WEAKER SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE 1119EAST DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE 1120REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS 1121FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 1122THE ECMWF MODEL. 1123 1124 1125FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1126 1127INIT 30/0300Z 21.2N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 1128 12H 30/1200Z 22.3N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 1129 24H 01/0000Z 23.5N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 1130 36H 01/1200Z 24.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 1131 48H 02/0000Z 24.8N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 1132 72H 03/0000Z 25.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 1133 96H 04/0000Z 25.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 1134120H 05/0000Z 25.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 1135 1136$$ 1137FORECASTER BROWN 1138 1139 1140WTNT42 KNHC 300857 1141TCDAT2 1142 1143TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 1144NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1145500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011 1146 1147THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF PHILIPPE IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. A COUPLE OF 1148RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A WELL- 1149DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAS 1150BEEN A NET INCREASE IN THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE 1151DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES 1152INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE STORM IS SOMEWHAT 1153CHAOTIC...WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE 1154NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY. GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN 1155NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST 1156ADVISORY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 40 KT. 1157 1158ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR DURING 1159THE LAST 12-24 HOURS...PHILIPPE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET. HOWEVER... 1160THE BETTER ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM WOULD SEEM TO 1161BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS 1162LOW. WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS PHILIPPE SHOULD 1163ENTER A REGION DOMINATED BY THE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 1164NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA. 1165ASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE CAN WITHSTAND WIND SHEAR OF THAT 1166MAGNITUDE...THERE COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION 1167TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY 1168FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM BUT A 1169BIT LOWER AFTER 36 HOURS...JUST BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL 1170GUIDANCE. 1171 1172PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 1173KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN EARLIER CENTER FIXES MAKES THIS 1174ESTIMATE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE BEING 1175STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 1176SO ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE 1177EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO 1178UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE 1179HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH...IN TURN...SHOULD 1180RESULT IN PHILIPPE'S TURNING GENERALLY WESTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK 1181IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO 1182FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE 1183ENVELOPE DUE TO A WEAKER VERSION OF PHILIPPE. THE OFFICIAL 1184FORECAST IS WELL TO THE LEFT OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER 1185TIMES SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS ASSUME A STRONGER CYCLONE. 1186 1187 1188FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1189 1190INIT 30/0900Z 21.9N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 1191 12H 30/1800Z 22.9N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 1192 24H 01/0600Z 23.9N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 1193 36H 01/1800Z 24.5N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 1194 48H 02/0600Z 24.9N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 1195 72H 03/0600Z 25.1N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 1196 96H 04/0600Z 25.0N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 1197120H 05/0600Z 24.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 1198 1199$$ 1200FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN 1201 1202 1203WTNT42 KNHC 300915 1204TCDAT2 1205 1206TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25...CORRECTED 1207NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1208500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011 1209 1210CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION 1211 1212THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF PHILIPPE IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. A COUPLE OF 1213RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A WELL- 1214DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAS 1215BEEN A NET INCREASE IN THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE 1216DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES 1217INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE STORM IS SOMEWHAT 1218CHAOTIC...WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE 1219NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY. GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN 1220NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST 1221ADVISORY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 40 KT. 1222 1223ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR DURING 1224THE LAST 12-24 HOURS...PHILIPPE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET. HOWEVER... 1225THE BETTER ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM WOULD SEEM TO 1226BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS 1227LOW. WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS PHILIPPE SHOULD 1228ENTER A REGION DOMINATED BY THE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 1229NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA. 1230ASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE CAN WITHSTAND WIND SHEAR OF THAT 1231MAGNITUDE...THERE COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION 1232TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY 1233FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM BUT A 1234BIT LOWER AFTER 36 HOURS...JUST BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL 1235GUIDANCE. 1236 1237PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 1238KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN EARLIER CENTER FIXES MAKES THIS 1239ESTIMATE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE BEING 1240STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 1241SO ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE 1242EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO 1243UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE 1244HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH...IN TURN...SHOULD 1245RESULT IN PHILIPPE'S TURNING WESTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS 1246BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO 1247FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE 1248ENVELOPE WHICH HAS A WEAKER VERSION OF PHILIPPE. THE OFFICIAL 1249FORECAST IS WELL TO THE LEFT OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER 1250TIMES SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS ASSUME A STRONGER CYCLONE. 1251 1252 1253FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1254 1255INIT 30/0900Z 21.9N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 1256 12H 30/1800Z 22.9N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 1257 24H 01/0600Z 23.9N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 1258 36H 01/1800Z 24.5N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 1259 48H 02/0600Z 24.9N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 1260 72H 03/0600Z 25.1N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 1261 96H 04/0600Z 25.0N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 1262120H 05/0600Z 24.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 1263 1264$$ 1265FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN 1266 1267 1268WTNT42 KNHC 301452 1269TCDAT2 1270 1271TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 1272NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 12731100 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011 1274 1275FINALLY...WE CAN CLEARLY SEE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE. A SERIES OF 1276MICROWAVE PASSES FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUSLY 1277ESTIMATED CENTER DISSIPATED...AND A NEW CENTER FORMED FARTHER 1278NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. NOW THERE IS NO DOUBT SINCE 1279THE CENTER HAS RECENTLY POPPED OUT OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION. 1280BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBLE RE-FORMATION...THE CENTER IS MOVING AT AN 1281UNCERTAIN 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT. PHILIPPE IS STILL GAINING SOME 1282LATITUDE AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 1283MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...BUT A NEW ANTICYCLONE IS ALREADY BUILDING 1284FARTHER NORTH AND SHOULD FORCE THE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 1285HEADING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY 1286CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE GFS AND ECMWF 1287INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD FARTHER SOUTH AND FORCE 1288PHILIPPE ON A WEST TO JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST HEADING ON DAYS 3 AND 12894. ON THE OTHER HAND...MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT BUILD THE 1290RIDGE AS MUCH AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE GAINING LATITUDE. 1291DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...PHILIPPE SHOULD HAVE MADE ENOUGH 1292WESTWARD PROGRESS BY DAY 5 TO START FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP 1293LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND ALL THE MODELS SHOW 1294SOME DEGREE OF A NORTHWARD TURN BEGINNING AT THAT TIME. THE 1295OFFICIAL FORECAST DIVERGES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AFTER 129648 HOURS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND ENDS UP VERY 1297CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 1298 1299A 1212 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW 40-KT WIND VECTORS JUST TO THE 1300NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. 1301HOWEVER...PHILIPPE WILL LIKELY NOT MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY NOW THAT 1302VERTICAL SHEAR IS INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM. BELLIGERENT 1303NORTHERLY SHEAR OF AT LEAST 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PHILIPPE 1304OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS COULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO 1305WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR COULD RELAX A BIT BY DAY 5 ONCE 1306THE CYCLONE REACHES AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE 1307HOSTILE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE DEEP 1308TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST THEREFORE ALLOWS 1309FOR PHILIPPE TO REGAIN TROPICAL-STORM STATUS AT THAT TIME. IN 1310GENERAL...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE LGEM AND 1311THE SHIPS MODEL...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAINTAINS PHILIPPE AS A 1312TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 1313 1314FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1315 1316INIT 30/1500Z 22.9N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 1317 12H 01/0000Z 23.8N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 1318 24H 01/1200Z 24.6N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 1319 36H 02/0000Z 25.3N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 1320 48H 02/1200Z 25.7N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 1321 72H 03/1200Z 25.5N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 1322 96H 04/1200Z 25.0N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 1323120H 05/1200Z 26.0N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 1324 1325$$ 1326FORECASTER BERG 1327 1328 1329WTNT42 KNHC 302042 1330TCDAT2 1331 1332TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 1333NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1334500 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011 1335 1336THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT 1337THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN RE-COVERED BY DEEP CONVECTION 1338SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 1339KT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 1340DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.9 FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT. 1341HILARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A COL REGION BETWEEN AN 1342UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH AND A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COVERING 1343THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE EXITING THE 1344COL REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND IS FORECAST TO BE 1345CONTINUOUSLY BLASTED BY STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 1346DAYS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS ARE INDICATING UP TO 134740 KT OF SHEAR WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS PARADOXICAL... 1348HOWEVER...THAT NEARLY EVERY INTENSITY MODEL IS EITHER SHOWING 1349PHILIPPE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OR STRENGTHENING DURING THE 1350FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE HOSTILE 1351CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS 1352CLOSEST TO THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS ALONG THE LOWER BOUND OF THE 1353GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 1354 1355PHILIPPE IS MOVING AT 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT AND IS FORECAST TO 1356GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT COMES 1357UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS 1358NORTH. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES NOT BECOME 1359SIGNIFICANT UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS 1360INDICATING THAT PHILIPPE WILL RECURVE BY DAY 4 OR 5 AS IT 1361APPROACHES A DEEP-LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. 1362THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND KEEPS PHILIPPE ON A WESTWARD 1363COURSE...MOST LIKELY BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO DE-AMPLIFY THE WESTERN 1364ATLANTIC TROUGH SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK 1365FORECAST SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW RECURVATURE BY DAY 5 BUT IS 1366TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NOT AS FAST AS THE 12Z 1367ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS AT THAT TIME. 1368 1369FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1370 1371INIT 30/2100Z 23.5N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 1372 12H 01/0600Z 24.2N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 1373 24H 01/1800Z 25.0N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 1374 36H 02/0600Z 25.7N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 1375 48H 02/1800Z 26.1N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 1376 72H 03/1800Z 26.0N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 1377 96H 04/1800Z 26.5N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 1378120H 05/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 1379 1380$$ 1381FORECASTER BERG 1382 1383 1384WTNT42 KNHC 010245 1385TCDAT2 1386 1387TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 1388NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 13891100 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011 1390 1391A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON WERE VERY 1392HELPFUL IN FIXING THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE AFTER THE CENTER BECAME 1393OBSCURED...AND INDICATED THE CYCLONE WAS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF 1394THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8. THE MICROWAVE 1395DATA ALSO SHOWED A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE 1396RING...BUT THE CURRENT INFRARED DEPICTION SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL 1397NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM OPHELIA IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A TOLL. 1398DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45 AND 35 1399KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. 1400 1401WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE 1402NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 1403OF DAYS...SUCH THAT PHILIPPE COULD WELL SUFFER A BEHEADING AT THE 1404HANDS OF OPHELIA. THE LGEM...TRADITIONALLY THE BEST INTENSITY 1405GUIDANCE...SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL 1406FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MODEL. THE REMAINING 1407GUIDANCE IS INEXPLICABLY INDIFFERENT TO THE SHEAR AND SHOWS LITTLE 1408NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... 1409SHOULD PHILIPPE SURVIVE...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN 1410AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING AT THAT 1411TIME. 1412 1413A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EXPECTED 1414TO TURN PHILIPPE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS WEST OVER THE 1415NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS TURN WILL 1416DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION PHILIPPE CAN MAINTAIN AS THE 1417NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES...WITH A WEAKER OR SHALLOWER SYSTEM 1418MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION LONGER. BY DAY 1419FOUR...PHILIPPE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. 1420EAST COAST AND TURN NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES 1421SIGNIFICANTLY AT THAT POINT...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING 1422PHILIPPE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AND THE GFS MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWEST. 1423THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE 1424PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND SHALLOW BAM...UNDER THE 1425ASSUMPTION THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN MUCH VERTICAL 1426COHERENCE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. 1427 1428 1429FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1430 1431INIT 01/0300Z 24.0N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 1432 12H 01/1200Z 24.7N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 1433 24H 02/0000Z 25.5N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 1434 36H 02/1200Z 26.1N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 1435 48H 03/0000Z 26.5N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 1436 72H 04/0000Z 27.0N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 1437 96H 05/0000Z 28.0N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 1438120H 06/0000Z 31.0N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 1439 1440$$ 1441FORECASTER FRANKLIN 1442 1443 1444WTNT42 KNHC 010851 1445TCDAT2 1446 1447TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 1448NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1449500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011 1450 1451ALTHOUGH PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC 1452ENVIRONMENT...THE STORM IS NOT WEAKENING. IN FACT...DEEP CONVECTION 1453HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS 1454NOW AS COLD AS -85C. A 0501 UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE 1455LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 1456CONVECTION...AND THAT THE VORTEX WAS TILTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 1457HEIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND 1458SAB...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. HOWEVER... 1459RECENT ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE COULD BE A 1460LITTLE STRONGER. 1461 1462THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. 1463PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE 1464NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL 1465RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD 1466THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...THE 1467SAME ONE THAT IS INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF OPHELIA...ERODES THE 1468RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SHARPER TURN AT THE END OF 1469THE PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IS ABOUT 1470MIDWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF MODEL. 1471 1472NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF 1473OPHELIA...IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING PHILIPPE. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS 1474THE SHEAR VECTOR TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO NEAR 40 1475KT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 1476SHOULD CAUSE AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING. IF PHILIPPE IS ABLE TO 1477SURVIVE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...IT MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO 1478RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER 1479SHEAR. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...A BURST OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR 1480ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE NHC 1481INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE 1482LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE LGEM. 1483 1484FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1485 1486INIT 01/0900Z 24.3N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 1487 12H 01/1800Z 25.0N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 1488 24H 02/0600Z 25.7N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 1489 36H 02/1800Z 26.2N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 1490 48H 03/0600Z 26.4N 54.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 1491 72H 04/0600Z 26.6N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 1492 96H 05/0600Z 28.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 1493120H 06/0600Z 32.0N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 1494 1495$$ 1496FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 1497 1498 1499WTNT42 KNHC 011445 1500TCDAT2 1501 1502TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 1503NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 15041100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011 1505 1506PHILIPPE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE 1507DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. DEEP CONVECTION IS 1508PRIMARILY LIMITED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE 1509INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT BASED ON SIMILAR DVORAK 1510ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. 1511 1512PHILIPPE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 1513AND HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MOTION OF 300 DEGREES AT 8 1514KT. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ARE INDICATING THAT A RIDGE AXIS WILL 1515BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AS HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...AND 1516THIS FEATURE SHOULD FORCE PHILIPPE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION 1517BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH A 1518WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW 1519OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND CONSEQUENTLY MAKE A SLOW TURN 1520TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. ALL OF THE TRACK 1521MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE GFS SHOWS A SMALLER CUT-OFF 1522LOW AND LEAVES PHILIPPE IN A WEAKER STEERING FLOW. THIS MAKES THE 1523GFS A SLOWER...SOUTHERN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MODELS. OUT 1524OF RESPECT FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE 1525SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 1526AND 5. 1527 1528THIRTY TO FORTY KNOTS OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO 1529AFFECT PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT IS BECOMING 1530MORE APPARENT THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RESILIENT ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND 1531THIS ENVIRONMENT. PHILIPPE WILL BY NO MEANS BE A HEALTHY-LOOKING 1532CYCLONE...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT FOR IT TO MAINTAIN 1533CONVECTION AND REMAIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE IT MOVES OVER 1534WARMER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY 1535CONSENSUS AND INDICATES WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS. SOME 1536RE-STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN PHILIPPE ENTERS 1537A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS OF 1538LOW CONFIDENCE...IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE INTENSITY MODELS DURING THAT 1539PERIOD. 1540 1541FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1542 1543INIT 01/1500Z 24.8N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 1544 12H 02/0000Z 25.4N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 1545 24H 02/1200Z 25.9N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 1546 36H 03/0000Z 26.1N 53.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 1547 48H 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 1548 72H 04/1200Z 26.0N 59.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 1549 96H 05/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 1550120H 06/1200Z 30.5N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 1551 1552$$ 1553FORECASTER BERG 1554 1555 1556WTNT42 KNHC 012033 1557TCDAT2 1558 1559TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 1560NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1561500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011 1562 1563AN ASCAT SWATH PARTIALLY CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 1331 UTC...AND SOMEWHAT 1564SURPRISINGLY...IT SHOWED A COUPLE OF 55-KT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO 1565THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS IS BEING SET AS THE INITIAL 1566INTENSITY...AND IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO A POTENTIAL LOW 1567BIAS IN THE DATA...AND BECAUSE THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD WAS NOT 1568MEASURED BY THE INSTRUMENT. GIVEN THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY... 1569THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE 1570FORECAST PERIOD BUT INDICATES THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF WEAKENING 1571AND RE-STRENGTHENING AS BEFORE. THE REASONING FOR THIS INTENSITY 1572FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO 1573IMPACT PHILIPPE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO AND SHOULD INDUCE SOME 1574GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SHEAR COULD RELAX BY DAY 4 WHEN PHILIPPE 1575REACHES A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND THE STATISTICAL 1576MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL...ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME 1577STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. 1578 1579THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL 1580AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS 1581FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA... 1582AND THAT SHOULD TURN PHILIPPE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 1583HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE 1584RIDGE BY DAY 3 WITH PHILIPPE RESPONDING BY SLOWING DOWN AND TURNING 1585TOWARD THE NORTH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE 1586MODELS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT PHILIPPE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE FLOW 1587AHEAD OF A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS 1588IS STILL A SLOWER AND SOUTHERN OUTLIER...HAVING PHILIPPE MISS THE 1589TROUGH AND GETTING STUCK TO THE SOUTH OF A POST-FRONTAL HIGH 1590PRESSURE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE 1591OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON DAYS 15924 AND 5. 1593 1594BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII AND THE 159512-FT SEAS RADII WERE REQUIRED ON THIS FORECAST ADVISORY. 1596 1597FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1598 1599INIT 01/2100Z 25.2N 49.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 1600 12H 02/0600Z 25.6N 50.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 1601 24H 02/1800Z 25.9N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 1602 36H 03/0600Z 25.8N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 1603 48H 03/1800Z 25.7N 57.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 1604 72H 04/1800Z 26.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 1605 96H 05/1800Z 28.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 1606120H 06/1800Z 32.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 1607 1608$$ 1609FORECASTER BERG 1610 1611 1612WTNT42 KNHC 020252 1613TCDAT2 1614 1615TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 1616NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 16171100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011 1618 1619PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF 1620NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS 1621AROUND 0045 UTC SHOWED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 58 KT NORTHEAST OF THE 1622CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT FOR THIS 1623ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING EVEN MORE OVER 1624THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE 1625WEAKENING AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 1626THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR GRADUALLY 1627DECREASING...AND FALLING BELOW 20 KT AS PHILIPPE MOVES UNDER A 1628SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 1629THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS AND 1630RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY 1631FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE 1632PERIOD. 1633 1634THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS 1635EVENING...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 1636IS 290/08. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS 1637PHILIPPE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE 1638WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE 1639CYCLONE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF PHILIPPE. BY DAY 3...THE 1640LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL WEAKEN 1641THE RIDGE AND ALLOW PHILIPPE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN 1642NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN 1643THE GUIDANCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS TURN. FOR EXAMPLE...AT DAY 5 1644THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE SLOWER GFS AND 1645THE FASTER ECMWF IS MORE THAN 550 NM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS 1646TRENDED EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE 1647GUIDANCE...AS IT IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER MOVING WITH THE TROUGH 1648INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE LARGE AND APPARENTLY 1649INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK 1650FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS 1651ONE AND WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND 1652HWRF MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE 1653FORWARD MOTION IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE 1654LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. 1655 1656THE 34-KT AND 50-KT RADII IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WERE ADJUSTED BASED 1657ON DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASS. 1658 1659 1660FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1661 1662INIT 02/0300Z 25.4N 49.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 1663 12H 02/1200Z 25.8N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 1664 24H 03/0000Z 26.0N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 1665 36H 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 1666 48H 04/0000Z 25.8N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 1667 72H 05/0000Z 26.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 1668 96H 06/0000Z 28.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 1669120H 07/0000Z 31.5N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 1670 1671$$ 1672FORECASTER BRENNAN 1673 1674 1675WTNT42 KNHC 020834 1676TCDAT2 1677 1678TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 1679NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1680500 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 1681 1682SINCE THE ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0100 UTC...WHICH INDICATED THAT THE 1683MAXIMUM WINDS OF PHILIPPE WERE NEAR 60 KT...THE OVERALL CLOUD 1684PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL 1685INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT. PHILIPPE IS A STRONGLY SHEARED 1686TROPICAL STORM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN 1687EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST MICROWAVE DATA 1688INDICATE THE STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE...ALBEIT SHEARED...REMAINS 1689FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. 1690 1691PHILIPPE IS GRADUALLY TURNING WESTWARD...AND THE LATEST INITIAL 1692MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE 1693SAME SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STORM 1694REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN 1695THREE TO FOUR DAYS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN 1696FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. BEYOND THAT 1697TIME...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN 1698APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN 1699NUDGED TO THE LEFT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE 1700MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST FEW DISCUSSIONS... 1701THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST 1702PERIOD AS THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL. 1703 1704ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 40 KT...ACCORDING TO 1705THE SHIPS MODEL...IT HAS YET TO CAUSE PHILIPPE TO WEAKEN. THE 1706INTENSITY MODELS UNANIMOUSLY CALL FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING 1707THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. AFTER 1708THREE DAYS...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS PHILIPPE 1709RESTRENGTHENING AS THE SHEAR DECREASES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT... 1710LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS HIGHLY 1711UNCERTAIN. THE STRENGTH OF PHILIPPE AT THE LATTER FORECAST TIMES 1712APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOW THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE 1713APPROACHING TROUGH. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM BECOMING 1714ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT BY DAY 5. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL 1715MODEL SHOWS PHILIPPE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE...PERHAPS DUE TO 1716BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENTS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN 1717THE EXTREMES AND FOLLOWS THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. 1718 1719FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1720 1721INIT 02/0900Z 25.6N 50.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 1722 12H 02/1800Z 25.8N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 1723 24H 03/0600Z 25.7N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 1724 36H 03/1800Z 25.6N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 1725 48H 04/0600Z 25.6N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 1726 72H 05/0600Z 26.5N 61.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 1727 96H 06/0600Z 28.5N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 1728120H 07/0600Z 32.0N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 1729 1730$$ 1731FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 1732 1733 1734WTNT42 KNHC 021444 1735TCDAT2 1736 1737TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 1738NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 17391100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 1740 1741PHILIPPE HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1742SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND IT ONLY 1743TOOK 30-40 KT OF SHEAR TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. DVORAK CURRENT 1744INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. IN 1745ADDITION...VARIOUS SATELLITE PRODUCTS FROM THE CIMSS GROUP AT THE 1746UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE PROVIDING ESTIMATES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 1747KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 45 KT ON THIS 1748ADVISORY. 1749 1750AS THE DEEP CONVECTION BECAME SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLIER 1751THIS MORNING...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARED TO MAKE A JOG TO THE 1752NORTHWEST. THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. 1753THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A WESTWARD MOTION DURING 1754THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO 1755ITS NORTH. THE CYCLONE REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY 1756A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY 72 1757HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE IT TO TURN SLOWLY NORTH AND 1758NORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 3 AND 4. SOME ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST 1759IS FORECAST ON DAY 5 AS PHILIPPE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER 1760SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 1761IS NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS TOWARD THE BAM SHALLOW 1762MODEL...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A MORE ACCURATE MOTION RECENTLY. 1763AFTER 72 HOURS...THE FORECAST SHOWS A WIDER AND FASTER RE-CURVATURE 1764THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS...AND THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 1765ECMWF AND THE BAM SHALLOW AND MEDIUM MODELS. 1766 1767THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THE SHIPS 1768GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE 1769HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. SOME 1770WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD. 1771TAKING IT A STEP FURTHER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN 1772SHOWING PHILIPPE DISSIPATING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAY 3. 1773ALTHOUGH THAT IS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 1774CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS FOR NOW AND SHOWS THE 1775POSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-STRENGTHENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. 1776HOWEVER...IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND FSU 1777SUPERENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE WILL BECOME A 1778SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE. 1779 1780FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1781 1782INIT 02/1500Z 26.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 1783 12H 03/0000Z 26.5N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 1784 24H 03/1200Z 26.3N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 1785 36H 04/0000Z 26.2N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 1786 48H 04/1200Z 26.3N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 1787 72H 05/1200Z 28.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 1788 96H 06/1200Z 30.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 1789120H 07/1200Z 32.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 1790 1791$$ 1792FORECASTER BERG 1793 1794 1795WTNT42 KNHC 022034 1796TCDAT2 1797 1798TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 1799NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1800500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 1801 1802A NEW ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 1803HOURS...AND IS PARTIALLY COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE. 1804DVORAK CURRENT-INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 1805SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS RECENTLY INCREASED TO 45 KT DUE TO 1806THE NEW CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 45 1807KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 1808 1809WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED SATELLITE WINDS INDICATE THAT 1810A 60-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POINTED DUE SOUTH INTO 1811PHILIPPE...SO THE CYCLONE IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BELLIGERENT 1812NORTHERLY SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE. THESE NEGATIVE 1813FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 181448 HOURS. THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND FOSTER SOME RE-STRENGTHENING 1815BY DAY 3 WHEN PHILIPPE REACHES A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. 1816HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 1817EARNEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THIS WOULD BE A MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE 1818ENVIRONMENT THAN THE ONE PHILIPPE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. THE 1819OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR MOST OF 1820THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO SHY AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE- 1821PRODUCING GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. ON THE OTHER END OF THE 1822SPECTRUM...THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT 18233 DAYS. 1824 1825PHILIPPE IS AVERAGING A MOTION OF 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT...BUT A 1826SHORTER-TERM MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE TURNED 1827TOWARD THE WEST AS FORECAST. THERE HAS BEEN A SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT 1828SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE. ALTHOUGH 1829THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A WIDER 1830AND SHARPER RE-CURVATURE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...THAT TREND 1831IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE 12Z CYCLE. IN ADDITION...THE GFDL 1832AND HWRF MODELS HAVE JOINED THE GFS IN THAT SOLUTION...AND EVEN THE 1833ECMWF NOW SHOWS A SHARPER TURN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS 1834BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR 1835MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...EVEN 1836SHOWING A BRIEF WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 1837 1838 1839FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1840 1841INIT 02/2100Z 26.3N 52.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 1842 12H 03/0600Z 26.2N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 1843 24H 03/1800Z 25.7N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 1844 36H 04/0600Z 25.4N 59.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 1845 48H 04/1800Z 25.5N 60.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 1846 72H 05/1800Z 27.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 1847 96H 06/1800Z 29.0N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 1848120H 07/1800Z 31.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 1849 1850$$ 1851FORECASTER BERG 1852 1853 1854WTNT42 KNHC 030247 1855TCDAT2 1856 1857TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 1858NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 18591100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 1860 1861BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED 1862CENTER OF PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO 1863SUSTAIN ITSELF IN THE FACE OF VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM 1864THE NORTH. PHILIPPE MAY BE SOMEWHAT RESILIENT IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR 1865BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS CONFINED TO LEVELS ABOVE 300 MB INSTEAD OF 1866EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. A BLEND OF DVORAK 1867T- AND CI-NUMBERS AND RECENT ADT VALUES SUGGESTS THAT PHILIPPE IS 1868MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE 1869HOSTILE SHEAR AFFECTING PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX 1870DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN 187148-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 1872DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR WEAKENS...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION 1873EXPECTED IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY 1874SHEAR...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT PHILIPPE IS EXPERIENCING 1875NOW...SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST 1876IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 BUT REMAINS A TAD 1877BELOW IT AT LATER TIMES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION 1878THAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS WHEN THE SHEAR 1879IS FORECAST TO DECREASE HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. 1880 1881RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING. WHILE 1882THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES 1883SUGGEST THAT A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN. 1884GLOBAL MODELS KEEP PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD TO EVEN WEST- 1885SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL 1886RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... 1887PHILIPPE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER 1888THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH OF A MID- TO 1889UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LARGE- 1890SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...DIFFERENCES 1891ARE SEEN IN THE SHARPNESS AND TIMING OF THE TURN. THESE DIFFERENCES 1892ARE LARGELY RELATED TO THE LATITUDE OF THE STORM WHEN IT FIRST 1893ENCOUNTERS THIS DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS... 1894WHICH KEEP THE PHILIPPE FARTHER NORTH...FAVOR A QUICKER AND SHARPER 1895TURN WHILE THE GFS AND REGIONAL MODELS...WHICH LIE FARTHER SOUTH 1896INITIALLY...DELAY THE TURN AND ARE NOT AS SHARP. THE NEW NHC TRACK 1897FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GIVE THE MORE 1898SOUTHERLY GROUP OF GUIDANCE GREATER WEIGHT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN 1899THE OBSERVED MOTION. 1900 1901FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1902 1903INIT 03/0300Z 26.1N 53.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 1904 12H 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 1905 24H 04/0000Z 25.6N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 1906 36H 04/1200Z 25.5N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 1907 48H 05/0000Z 26.1N 61.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 1908 72H 06/0000Z 27.8N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 1909 96H 07/0000Z 30.2N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 1910120H 08/0000Z 32.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 1911 1912$$ 1913FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN 1914 1915 1916WTNT42 KNHC 030852 1917TCDAT2 1918 1919TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 1920NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1921500 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011 1922 1923THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL 1924HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED 1925NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH HAS 1926EXPANDED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN ASCAT OVERPASS JUST 1927AFTER 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT. THE 1928LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO 45 KT... 1929THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. 1930 1931THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT ABOUT 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR IS 1932CURRENTLY AFFECTING PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE 1933PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR IS 1934PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER THAN 1935EXTENDING THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS COULD BE 1936THE REASON WHY PHILIPPE HAS NOT WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE 1937PAST FEW DAYS DESPITE BEING IN ANALYZED SHEAR OF 30 KT OR HIGHER. 1938NONETHELESS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN THE 36-72 HOUR 1939TIME FRAME...AND THAT COULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL STORM TO STRENGTHEN. 1940BEYOND A FEW DAYS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE 1941SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 1942IS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE 1943HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. 1944 1945PHILIPPE APPEARS TO NOW BE MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND 1946THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION 1947IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE STORM 1948REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE 1949IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE 1950WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO GRADUALLY TURN 1951NORTHWARD IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE THREE TO 1952FIVE DAY TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 1953THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN...THERE REMAINS 1954CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR PHILIPPE. THIS SPREAD 1955IS IN PART DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF PHILIPPE IN 1956THE MODELS. IN GENERAL...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER AT 1957THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS 1958FOLLOWED SUIT. 1959 1960THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 1961ASCAT PASS. 1962 1963FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1964 1965INIT 03/0900Z 25.8N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 1966 12H 03/1800Z 25.6N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 1967 24H 04/0600Z 25.5N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 1968 36H 04/1800Z 25.8N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 1969 48H 05/0600Z 26.5N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 1970 72H 06/0600Z 28.3N 60.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 1971 96H 07/0600Z 30.5N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 1972120H 08/0600Z 33.0N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 1973 1974$$ 1975FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 1976 1977 1978WTNT42 KNHC 031454 1979TCDAT2 1980 1981TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 1982NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 19831100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011 1984 1985SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A 1986WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN 1987LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE JUST 1988RECEIVED A 1250 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT INDICATES THE CENTER MAY HAVE 1989DIVED SOUTH...OR EVEN RE-FORMED...NEAR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE 1990ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT. 1991 1992PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHERLY 1993SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. 1994SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...AND EVEN 1995STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS...THERE IS NOT MUCH 1996REASON TO DOUBT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...AND THIS IS 1997REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PHILIPPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO 1998REACH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY DAY 3...WHICH SHOULD FOSTER 1999SOME STRENGTHENING AT THAT TIME. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKE 2000PHILIPPE TO OR JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT FOR NOW THE 2001OFFICIAL FORECAST STOPS JUST SHORT OF SHOWING THAT. THE 00 UTC 2002CYCLE OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT 48 2003HOURS...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES IN THE 200412 UTC CYCLE. 2005 2006WITH THE RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE LONG-TERM 24-HOUR MOTION IS 2007250 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS STEERING 2008PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY AN EXPANDING 2009CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2010THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SHARPLY 2011NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3. A NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD ACCELERATION 2012IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES 2013VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 2014 2015FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2016 2017INIT 03/1500Z 24.8N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 2018 12H 04/0000Z 25.0N 57.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 2019 24H 04/1200Z 25.2N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 2020 36H 05/0000Z 25.7N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 2021 48H 05/1200Z 26.5N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 2022 72H 06/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 2023 96H 07/1200Z 30.5N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 2024120H 08/1200Z 32.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 2025 2026$$ 2027FORECASTER BERG 2028 2029 2030WTNT42 KNHC 032037 2031TCDAT2 2032 2033TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 2034NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2035500 PM AST MON OCT 03 2011 2036 2037PHILIPPE IS TILTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HEIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED 2038NORTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.5...OR 55 2039KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY 2040FOR THIS ADVISORY. 2041 2042THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE 2043CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TO THE WEST 2044AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS PHILIPPE REACHES 2045A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW 2046NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RE-CURVATURE AHEAD OF THE LOW IS 2047EXPECTED BY 48-72 HOURS...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC 2048MODELS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND TRENDED SLOWER. BASED ON THIS 2049CHANGE...THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE 2050THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOWED DOWN ON DAYS 4 AND 5. 2051 2052PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 36 HOURS OF BEING IN A HIGH-SHEAR 2053ENVIRONMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED 2054DURING THAT TIME. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENTER AN AREA 2055OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH COULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING. ALL 2056OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO...AND THE STATISTICAL 2057MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS 2058SHOWING PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE AT THE LATTER PART OF THE 2059FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO 2060DEVELOP BY THAT TIME. IT IS STILL A LITTLE DISCONCERTING THAT THE 206112 UTC CYCLE OF THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE SURFACE 2062CIRCULATION OF PHILIPPE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY 48 HOURS. 2063HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN THAT MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE 2064LEFTOVER VORTEX COULD BE LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL 2065DIFFLUENCE. IF THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND 2066FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THERE COULD BE A DELAY BEFORE IT IS NEGATIVELY 2067AFFECTED BY THE DEVELOPING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE 2068ALLOWS PHILIPPE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AROUND DAY 4...BUT IT IS 2069STILL LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME. 2070 2071FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2072 2073INIT 03/2100Z 24.6N 56.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 2074 12H 04/0600Z 24.5N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 2075 24H 04/1800Z 24.8N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 2076 36H 05/0600Z 25.2N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 2077 48H 05/1800Z 25.8N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 2078 72H 06/1800Z 27.5N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 2079 96H 07/1800Z 29.0N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 2080120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 2081 2082$$ 2083FORECASTER BERG 2084 2085 2086WTNT42 KNHC 040236 2087TCDAT2 2088 2089TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 2090NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 20911100 PM AST MON OCT 03 2011 2092 2093PHILIPPE SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN. WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES 2094HAVE RECENTLY WARMED NEAR THE CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN 2095MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR SOME TIME. THE 2096PERSISTENCE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR 2097AFFECTING THE STORM HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED. A LATE AFTERNOON 2098MICROWAVE OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE 2099EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN CLOUD MASS...WITH A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE 2100IN THE TILT OF THE VORTEX SINCE EARLIER TODAY. OVERALL...THE 2101SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND AN 2102AVERAGE OF 0000 UTC DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS RESULTS IN HOLDING THE 2103INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT. 2104 2105PHILIPPE HAD BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT 2106LATEST FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF 240/10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST 2107TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD COURSE FOR 2108THE NEXT DAY OR SO...EQUATORWARD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED 2109NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BY 36 HOURS...THE 2110RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A COMPLEX AND AMPLIFIED 2111TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE 2112WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN 2113NORTHWARD AND SLOW BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE DEEP-LAYER 2114WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE BY 72 HOURS. THE 2115MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE EAST THIS CYCLE AND IS NOW 2116FORECASTING A SHARPER RECURVATURE...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD NOTED 2117AT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN 2118ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE RECENT CENTER RE-LOCATION AND 2119CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL SOLUTIONS...GIVEN THEIR 2120BETTER HANDLE ON THE BOTH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT MOTION. AN 2121ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY SOME MODELS IS FOR PHILIPPE TO 2122BECOME ABSORBED BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN 72 AND 120 2123HOURS. 2124 2125THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER TRICKY. THE MODELS SUGGEST A 2126FURTHER REDUCTION IN SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH A RELATIVE 2127MINIMUM IN SHEAR OCCURRING IN ABOUT 36 TO 72 HOURS. THIS MORE 2128FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS 2129POSSIBLE...AND PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH 2130DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING WEST- 2131SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND 2132A FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGING UPON PHILIPPE SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING... 2133PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY 2134FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NEAR THE 2135MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE 2136FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AND IS BELOW THE 2137INTENSITY GUIDANCE GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 2138FORECAST OVER PHILIPPE. 2139 2140 2141FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2142 2143INIT 04/0300Z 23.7N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 2144 12H 04/1200Z 23.5N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 2145 24H 05/0000Z 23.9N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 2146 36H 05/1200Z 24.5N 61.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 2147 48H 06/0000Z 25.3N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 2148 72H 07/0000Z 27.0N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 2149 96H 08/0000Z 28.7N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 2150120H 09/0000Z 30.3N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 2151 2152$$ 2153FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN 2154 2155 2156WTNT42 KNHC 040836 2157TCDAT2 2158 2159TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 2160NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2161500 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011 2162 2163PHILIPPE IS A RARE CREATURE. IT HAS AN EYE FEATURE IN BOTH 2164CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH 2165CONVECTION FOR THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO INDICATE 2166HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...THESE ESTIMATES YIELD TO LOWER WINDS 2167THAN EARLIER TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT 2168PHILIPPE IS A HURRICANE. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL 2169INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. I WOULD LOVE TO 2170HAVE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO REALLY KNOW THE TRUE INTENSITY OF 2171PHILIPPE. 2172 2173THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE SHEAR 2174RELAXES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BEFORE IT BECOMES ATTACHED 2175TO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 2176GUIDANCE TREND AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...BUT 2177THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. 2178 2179PHILIPPE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAPPED SOUTH OF 2180A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE . IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS NOW BEGUN TO 2181MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AS IT REACHING THE 2182WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS 2183ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS 2184PATTERN WILL FORCE PHILIPPE TO SHARPLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR 2185RECURVE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. PHILIPPE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME 2186EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD 2187FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO EACH 2188OTHER BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 2189THE SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THIS IS THE TREND INDICATED BY 2190MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS 2191HAVE PHILIPPE MEANDERING JUST SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. 2192 2193 2194FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2195 2196INIT 04/0900Z 23.6N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 2197 12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 2198 24H 05/0600Z 23.8N 61.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 2199 36H 05/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 2200 48H 06/0600Z 26.0N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 2201 72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 2202 96H 08/0600Z 29.0N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 2203120H 09/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 2204 2205$$ 2206FORECASTER AVILA 2207 2208 2209WTNT42 KNHC 041448 2210TCDAT2 2211 2212TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 2213NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 22141100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011 2215 2216SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A COUPLE MORE MICROWAVE IMAGES ARRIVED 2217AND INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE REMAINED 2218WELL ORGANIZED THROUGH 1000 UTC. THE IMAGES REVEALED A LOW- AND 2219MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THIS DATA ALONG 2220WITH DVORAK AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WAS 2221POSSIBLY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVERNIGHT. SINCE THAT TIME...THE 2222CLOUD PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE 2223WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE 2224MASS. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY 2225ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 55 KT. 2226 2227ACCORDING TO A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS...PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER 2228ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES WESTWARD 2229DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO A NARROW 2230UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE 2231UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS 2232FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A 2233DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS 2234ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF 2235THE UNITED STATES ARE FORECAST TO IMPINGE UPON THE CYCLONE AND 2236SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. PHILIPPE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH 2237A FRONT WITHIN 4 OR 5 DAYS...AND THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS PHILIPPE AS 2238AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 120 HOURS. 2239 2240PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS NEARING 2241THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 2242CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. THE 2243LARGE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED 2244STATES SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO RECURVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. 2245AFTER THAT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD 2246IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS HAS 2247TRENDED FASTER AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN 2248ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE 2249THE CYCLONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER GIVEN ITS TENACITY 2250PHILIPPE IS MAINTAINED AS A CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 2251 2252 2253FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2254 2255INIT 04/1500Z 23.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 2256 12H 05/0000Z 24.0N 60.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 2257 24H 05/1200Z 24.5N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 2258 36H 06/0000Z 25.4N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 2259 48H 06/1200Z 26.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 2260 72H 07/1200Z 28.5N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 2261 96H 08/1200Z 31.0N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 2262120H 09/1200Z 36.0N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2263 2264$$ 2265FORECASTER BROWN 2266 2267 2268WTNT42 KNHC 042032 2269TCDAT2 2270 2271TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 2272NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2273500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2011 2274 2275THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS 2276WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 2277DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB 2278HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1410 UTC SHOWED A FEW 50 2279KT BARBS IN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE 2280INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 55 KT. 2281 2282GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH 2283HAS BEEN AFFECTING PHILIPPE FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS SHOULD ABATE IN THE 2284NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE BUT SMALL REGION 2285OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME 2286STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW 2287PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME. STRONG 2288SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE AFTER 228948 HOURS...YET FOR THE MOST PART THE INTENSITY MODELS DO NOT SHOW 2290MUCH WEAKENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LGEM...WHICH TENDS TO 2291HANDLE SHEAR BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF 2292THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE AT THIS 2293TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS 2294FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND IT IS HIGHER THAN THE LGEM AT DAY 5 2295DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING AS PHILIPPE 2296BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. 2297 2298THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS 2299AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW-CLOUD LINES SUGGEST TO ME THAT IT HAS 2300EITHER JUMPED TO THE NORTH...OR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS 2301BECOMING SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. REGARDLESS...PHILIPPE HAS AN AVERAGED 2302INITIAL MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT AND IS ABOUT START ITS SHARP 2303RE-CURVATURE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR 2304THE FIRST 72 HOURS...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS 2305NOW...THE ECMWF IS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE 2306WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TO 2307DIFFER FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BY HAVING PHILIPPE STAY FARTHER 2308SOUTH AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS SHOW 2309IT BECOMING THE MAIN THE PARENT CYCLONE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE 2310NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS 2311ONE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT IS THEN VERY SIMILAR ON DAYS 3 2312THROUGH 5...FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING 2313NORTHEASTWARD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON DAY 5. 2314 2315 2316FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2317 2318INIT 04/2100Z 24.1N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 2319 12H 05/0600Z 24.5N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 2320 24H 05/1800Z 25.2N 61.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 2321 36H 06/0600Z 26.3N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 2322 48H 06/1800Z 27.3N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 2323 72H 07/1800Z 29.5N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 2324 96H 08/1800Z 32.0N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 2325120H 09/1800Z 36.5N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2326 2327$$ 2328FORECASTER BERG 2329 2330 2331WTNT42 KNHC 050236 2332TCDAT2 2333 2334TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 2335NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 23361100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2011 2337 2338THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS AGAIN CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST 2339ADVISORY. CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE 2340LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE 2341CONVECTION...WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTING A MID-LEVEL EYE 2342IS SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 2343ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB...AND...BASED ON THIS AND 2344THE LACK OF CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 234555 KT. 2346 2347PHILIPPE HAS BEGUN ITS FORECAST NORTHWARD TURN WITH THE INITIAL 2348MOTION NOW 300/6. THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE 2349SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING A 2350DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE 2351NORTHWEST. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD RECURVE ON THE 2352EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER... 2353THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON THE 2354MODEL FORECASTS OF THE EVENTUAL FATE OF PHILIPPE. THE GFS... 2355CANADIAN...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE 2356REMAINING STRONG THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND FORECAST A 2357NORTHWARD OR EVEN WEST OF NORTH MOTION BY 120 HOURS AS PHILIPPE 2358MERGES WITH THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MUCH WEAKER 2359PHILIPPE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY 2360ABSORBS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 2361EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO AND SHOWS PHILIPPE TURNING 2362NORTHWARD BY 120 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE 2363PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 2364 2365WHILE PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... 2366ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF 2367WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DECREASING. THE DYNAMICAL 2368MODELS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A 36-48 HOUR WINDOW OF MORE FAVORABLE 2369CONDITIONS AS THE CYCLONE PASSES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND 2370MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING 2371INTENSIFICATION. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE 2372AGAIN...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FORECAST TO START AT AROUND 237396 HOURS AND FINISH BY 120 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS 2374UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH 2375THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND 2376HWRF MODELS FORECAST A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND 2377LGEM...SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT PHILIPPE COULD BE STRONGER 2378THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. 2379 2380FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2381 2382INIT 05/0300Z 24.6N 60.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 2383 12H 05/1200Z 25.3N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 2384 24H 06/0000Z 26.1N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 2385 36H 06/1200Z 27.2N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 2386 48H 07/0000Z 28.4N 59.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 2387 72H 08/0000Z 30.5N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 2388 96H 09/0000Z 35.0N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 2389120H 10/0000Z 40.5N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2390 2391$$ 2392FORECASTER BEVEN 2393 2394 2395WTNT42 KNHC 050844 2396TCDAT2 2397 2398TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 2399NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2400500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2011 2401 2402PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHEARED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE 2403IMAGES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A VERY RAGGED EYE 2404OCCASIONALLY. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS 2405AGO...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT. MOST OF THE 2406GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL MOVE BENEATH AN UPPER- 2407LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LOWER SHEAR 2408LASTING FOR A DAY OR SO. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME 2409INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 2410FOLLOWS THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE 2411SPECTRUM BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT TIME... 2412SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE DUE TO A LARGE 2413TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. USUALLY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 2414WEAKENING WOULD BE CALLED FOR WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR...BUT ONLY A 2415MINOR DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT 2416BAROCLINIC FORCING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY DAY 24174...AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE EVEN 2418HAVE PHILIPPE EXTRATROPICAL NEAR DAY 3 IN THE LATEST RUNS...BUT I 2419DID NOT WANT TO SHOW SUCH A LARGE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS 2420FORECAST. 2421 2422SOME COARSE AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT 2423300/5...ABOUT THE SAME AS PREVIOUS. A RELATIVELY SHARP TURN TO THE 2424NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS LIKELY WITHIN A DAY OR SO DUE TO THE 2425AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH 2426SHOULD ALSO CAUSE PHILIPPE TO MOVE AT AN INCREASING PACE BY LATE 2427THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE STRONGER 2428MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 2429ONE...BUT IS A BIT FASTER TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL TRENDS. THE 2430EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION APPEARS TO BE A DIFFICULT ONE TO 2431FORECAST...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT BEING WHETHER PHILIPPE WILL 2432BECOME THE MAIN NON-TROPICAL LOW OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER 2433EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF PHILIPPE...THE NHC 2434FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE ABSORBED SCENARIO. 2435 2436 2437FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2438 2439INIT 05/0900Z 24.7N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 2440 12H 05/1800Z 25.3N 61.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 2441 24H 06/0600Z 26.5N 61.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 2442 36H 06/1800Z 27.8N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 2443 48H 07/0600Z 28.9N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 2444 72H 08/0600Z 31.5N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 2445 96H 09/0600Z 38.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2446120H 10/0600Z...ABSORBED 2447 2448$$ 2449FORECASTER BLAKE 2450 2451 2452WTNT42 KNHC 051456 2453TCDAT2 2454 2455TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 2456NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 24571100 AM AST WED OCT 05 2011 2458 2459PERSISTENT PHILIPPE CONTINUES AS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH 2460VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ON THE DOWNSHEAR...OR 2461SOUTHEAST...SIDE OF THE CENTER. INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 246240 KT FROM AN 0839Z AMSU CIMSS ANALYSIS ON THE LOW END TO 55 KT 2463FROM THE TAFB DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER ON THE HIGH END. 55 2464KT IS RETAINED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY...THOUGH THIS COULD BE 2465SLIGHTLY GENEROUS. THE 34 KT WIND RADII WAS ADJUSTED OUTWARD SOME 2466BASED UPON THE 0839Z AMSU CIRA SIZE ANALYSIS. 2467 2468A PAIR OF MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM FNMOC JUST BEFORE SYNOPTIC TIME 2469ALLOWS FOR A FAIRLY ACCURATE INITIAL POSITION. BASED UPON THIS AND 2470THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING THAT SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER 2471IS JUST TUCKED IN UNDERNEATH THE OVERCAST...AN INITIAL MOTION OF 2472310/5 IS ANALYZED. THE CYCLONE IS ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN 2473PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND RECURVATURE SHOULD COMMENCE 2474SHORTLY. THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 2475AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TURN PHILIPPE 2476TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. 2477THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT 2478PROGRAM MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE 2479PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 2480 2481PHILIPPE HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. 2482THE WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A WARM 28C UNDER THE TRACK OF 2483THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM 2484HAS ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR BEFORE THE 2485AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CAUSES THE SHEAR TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. 2486ADDITIONALLY...PHILIPPE IS SURROUNDED BY QUITE DRY AIR AS SHOWN IN 2487THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THOUGH NOT MUCH OF THAT MAY 2488ACTUALLY BE REACHING THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE INTENSITY 2489GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERSE WITH LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL MODELS 2490SHOWING LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF 2491DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPINNING UP THE 2492CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HFIP IV15 2493CONSENSUS THROUGH TWO DAYS AND THEN NEAREST TO THE SHIPS MODEL 2494THEREAFTER...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THAT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS 2495ADVISORY. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNANIMOUS BY ALL OF THE 2496DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO OCCUR BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS WHEN THE 2497OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE TRANSITION. AN 120 HOUR POINT IS 2498INCLUDED HERE AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE PROMINENT EXCEPTION 2499OF THE ECWMF WHICH KILLS OFF THE STORM AFTER 72 HOURS... CONTINUES 2500PHILIPPE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST FIVE DAYS. 2501THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE 2502AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. 2503 2504 2505FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2506 2507INIT 05/1500Z 25.3N 61.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 2508 12H 06/0000Z 26.0N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 2509 24H 06/1200Z 27.0N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 2510 36H 07/0000Z 28.2N 59.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 2511 48H 07/1200Z 29.3N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 2512 72H 08/1200Z 34.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 2513 96H 09/1200Z 40.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2514120H 10/1200Z 46.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2515 2516$$ 2517FORECASTER LANDSEA/BROWN 2518 2519 2520WTNT42 KNHC 052056 2521TCDAT2 2522 2523TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 2524NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2525500 PM AST WED OCT 05 2011 2526 2527THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF PHILIPPE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY. A 1753 2528UTC TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE 2529NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS...WITH SOME INCREASE 2530IN BANDING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...RECENT 2531GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY 2532DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION FOR THE 2533FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES 2534STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AROUND 55 KT. IT SEEMS THAT 2535THE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY DECREASING AS PREDICTED AND 2536PHILIPPE HAS A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. 2537THE REDUCTION IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONG 2538WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE 2539TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IMPINGE UPON THE CYCLONE ON 2540THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER 2541AND PHILIPPE WILL ALSO BE INTERACTING WITH A FRONT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. 2542THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE STATISTICAL 2543GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS MUCH BELOW THE 2544MORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS. BY 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL 2545MODELS UNANIMOUSLY SHOW PHILIPPE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND SO DOES 2546THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 2547 2548PHILIPPE HAS TURNED NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/5 KT. 2549THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS 2550ADVISORY. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND 2551ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 2552COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD 2553AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO 2554IN MOVING THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN DAYS 4 2555AND 5. AS A RESULT...THE NEW TRACK SHOWS LESS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION 2556THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 2557 2558FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2559 2560INIT 05/2100Z 25.8N 61.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 2561 12H 06/0600Z 26.6N 61.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 2562 24H 06/1800Z 27.8N 59.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 2563 36H 07/0600Z 28.8N 57.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 2564 48H 07/1800Z 29.9N 55.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 2565 72H 08/1800Z 35.0N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2566 96H 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2567120H 10/1800Z 45.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2568 2569$$ 2570FORECASTER BROWN 2571 2572 2573WTNT42 KNHC 060240 2574TCDAT2 2575 2576TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 2577NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 25781100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2011 2579 2580PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 2581HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2582THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...WHILE AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT 2583IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 2584KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 258555 KT. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY 2586OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO 2587ABOUT 10 KT. 2588 2589THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/6. PHILIPPE IS RECURVING TO THE EAST 2590OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE 2591WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT 2592THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME 2593ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION MAY 2594OCCUR AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND 2595MERGES WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 2596FORECAST TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 2597TRACK AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 2598 2599WHILE PHILIPPE HAS NOT YET STRENGTHENED...THERE WILL BE A 12-24 HOUR 2600PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE 2601STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART...THE 2602INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FOR PHILIPPE TO BECOME A HURRICANE 2603DURING THAT TIME...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER 24 2604HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. 2605EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND BE 2606COMPLETE BY 72 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON PHILIPPE 2607MAINTAINING GALE TO STORM INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...AND 2608THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 2609 2610FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2611 2612INIT 06/0300Z 26.4N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 2613 12H 06/1200Z 27.4N 60.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 2614 24H 07/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 2615 36H 07/1200Z 29.3N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 2616 48H 08/0000Z 30.8N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 2617 72H 09/0000Z 37.0N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2618 96H 10/0000Z 43.5N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2619120H 11/0000Z 52.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2620 2621$$ 2622FORECASTER BEVEN 2623 2624 2625WTNT42 KNHC 061444 2626TCDAT2 2627 2628HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 2629NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 26301100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011 2631 2632AFTER 49 PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...OVER TWELVE DAYS...PHILIPPE HAS 2633FINALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. A 1009Z SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGE 2634FROM FNMOC SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE...WHILE GEOSTATIONARY 2635SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SYMMETRIC COLD CLOUD COVER WITH AN 2636EYE PERHAPS BECOMING VISIBLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM 2637TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 4.5 AND 4.0... RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CIMSS 2638ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO. 2639THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT AT ADVISORY TIME. 2640 2641PHILIPPE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 2642KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER 2643EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE 2644MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATION 2645OF PHILIPPE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW 2646DAYS. THE TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE CONSENSUS AND 2647THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 2648 2649WHILE PHILIPPE HAS REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY...THIS PEAK WILL 2650LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO THE 2651AFOREMENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD 2652INCREASE DRASTICALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO WHILE THE SEA 2653SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM UNDER THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE FOR 2654THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SHEAR AND PERHAPS 2655ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD 2656TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS 2657IS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY 2658MODELS...AS THE PURELY DYNAMICAL HURRICANE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE 2659UNREALISTICALLY IMPERVIOUS TO THE MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND 2660CONSEQUENTLY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THE HURRICANE. AROUND 48 2661HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS 2662AROUND THE CYCLONE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE 2663ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS 2664EARLY AS TOMORROW...THOUGH THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO QUICK A 2665TRANSITION. 2666 2667THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON 2668GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 2669 2670FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2671 2672INIT 06/1500Z 27.8N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 2673 12H 07/0000Z 28.6N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 2674 24H 07/1200Z 29.6N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 2675 36H 08/0000Z 31.0N 53.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 2676 48H 08/1200Z 33.4N 49.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2677 72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2678 96H 10/1200Z 45.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2679120H 11/1200Z 51.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2680 2681$$ 2682FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH 2683 2684 2685WTNT42 KNHC 062045 2686TCDAT2 2687 2688HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 2689NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2690500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2011 2691 2692PHILIPPE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS 2693AN EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED INSIDE A 2694RELATIVELY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. BOTH TAFB AND SAB 2695SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES GIVE A CURRENT-INTENSITY NUMBER OF 26964.5...OR ABOUT 77 KT. A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE SUGGESTS 75 KT FROM A 26971649Z POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE PASS. THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK 2698TECHNIQUE INDICATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER 82 KT. A BLEND OF THESE 2699GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT...WHICH MAY BE SOMEWHAT 2700CONSERVATIVE. A 1228Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED THE WIND 2701RADII ANALYSIS...EVEN SMALLER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER. 2702 2703PHILIPPE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KT... 2704PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER 2705EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE 2706MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATION 2707OF PHILIPPE IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 2708THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE 2709OCCLUDES AROUND DAYS THREE AND FOUR BEFORE ACCELERATING A FINAL 2710TIME IN THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC AROUND DAY FIVE. THE TRACK 2711PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS 2712ADVISORY. 2713 2714THE SHARP GRADIENT OF INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE 2715SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF PHILIPPE MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE EXPECTED 2716INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH PHILIPPE WILL BE PASSING 2717OVER A SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TO SUSTAIN A TROPICAL 2718CYCLONE...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND A DRY STABLE 2719ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT TWO 2720DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THEIR 2721EARLIER INSISTENCE OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST IS 2722SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE 2723PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AROUND 36 TO 48 HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL 2724TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE CYCLONE. 2725 2726THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON 2727GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 2728 2729 2730FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2731 2732INIT 06/2100Z 28.7N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 2733 12H 07/0600Z 29.5N 57.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 2734 24H 07/1800Z 30.4N 55.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 2735 36H 08/0600Z 31.9N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 2736 48H 08/1800Z 35.3N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2737 72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2738 96H 10/1800Z 45.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2739120H 11/1800Z 54.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2740 2741$$ 2742FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH 2743 2744 2745WTNT42 KNHC 070255 2746TCDAT2 2747 2748HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 2749NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 27501100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2011 2751 2752THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PHILIPPE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED 2753SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IN RECENT HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN 2754OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A WARM SPOT WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE 2755OVERCAST IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS 2756WERE T4.5 AT 0000 UTC AND THE LATEST 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUE WAS 27574.8. USING THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KT. 2758PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS 2759ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS PHILIPPE ENCOUNTERS 2760INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE 2761TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS PATH. AFTER 36 HOURS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED 2762TO CROSS THE 26C-ISOTHERM AND RECEIVE A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY 2763ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 2764COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD HASTEN EXTRATROPICAL 2765TRANSITION...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT 2766THE TRANSITION PROCESS SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. POST- 2767TROPICAL PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL 2768GALE/STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OUT TO ABOUT 5 DAYS. 2769THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS 2770ONE AND CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS 2771THROUGH 48 HOURS. 2772 2773THE HEADING HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 2774NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 050/10. THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD GIVE THE 2775CYCLONE A KICK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. 2776AFTER PHILIPPE MERGES WITH THE TROUGH AND BECOMES AN OCCLUDED 2777CYCLONE...THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 2778AND BRIEFLY DECELERATE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TRACK 2779GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST 2780IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 2781 2782THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING A JUST-RECEIVED 0042 UTC ASCAT 2783OVERPASS. 2784 2785 2786FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2787 2788INIT 07/0300Z 29.1N 58.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 2789 12H 07/1200Z 29.9N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 2790 24H 08/0000Z 31.1N 53.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 2791 36H 08/1200Z 33.7N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 2792 48H 09/0000Z 37.3N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2793 72H 10/0000Z 42.0N 43.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2794 96H 11/0000Z 47.9N 38.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2795120H 12/0000Z 58.0N 30.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2796 2797$$ 2798FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN 2799 2800 2801WTNT42 KNHC 070840 2802TCDAT2 2803 2804HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 2805NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2806500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011 2807 2808SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS 2809DECREASED SOME...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY 2810MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL AN EYE ON 2811MICROWAVE DATA. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN NEAR 28124.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM CIMSS ARE 2813A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KNOTS. 2814THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT 2815ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. 2816PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND 2817BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 48 HOURS OR EARLIER. 2818 2819PHILIPPE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE 2820EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED 2821WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND AS THE FRONTAL 2822SYSTEM APPROACHES...PHILLIPE SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE ITS FORWARD 2823SPEED. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS PHILIPPE BECOMES 2824AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE OR BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE 2825ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST DURING THE POST- 2826TROPICAL STAGE OF PHILIPPE WAS PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION 2827CENTER. 2828 2829 2830FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2831 2832INIT 07/0900Z 29.6N 56.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 2833 12H 07/1800Z 30.5N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 2834 24H 08/0600Z 32.5N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 2835 36H 08/1800Z 36.0N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 2836 48H 09/0600Z 40.0N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2837 72H 10/0600Z 44.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2838 96H 11/0600Z 51.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2839120H 12/0600Z 61.0N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2840 2841$$ 2842FORECASTER AVILA 2843 2844 2845WTNT42 KNHC 071447 2846TCDAT2 2847 2848HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 2849NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 28501100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011 2851 2852SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EYEWALL OF PHILIPPE HAS 2853BEGUN TO DETERIORATE...LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR AND 2854DECREASING SSTS WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE STORM. ALSO...RECENT 2855VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO 2856BECOME SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE CHANGES INDICATE THAT THE 2857HURRICANE IS STARTING TO WEAKEN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET 2858AT 75 KT. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY 2859UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL 2860WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...PHILIPPE IS 2861EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BECOMES 2862EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 2863PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW 2864PRESSURE SYSTEM AT HIGH LATITUDES. 2865 2866PHILIPPE IS MAINTAINING A FORWARD MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 14 KT. 2867AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS 2868ANTICIPATED AS PHILIPPE INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. 2869THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS 2870GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 2871 2872FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2873INIT 07/1500Z 29.9N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 2874 12H 08/0000Z 31.1N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 2875 24H 08/1200Z 33.7N 49.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 2876 36H 09/0000Z 37.0N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 2877 48H 09/1200Z 41.0N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2878 72H 10/1200Z 47.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2879 96H 11/1200Z 55.0N 30.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2880120H 12/1200Z...ABSORBED 2881 2882$$ 2883FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY 2884 2885 2886WTNT42 KNHC 072033 2887TCDAT2 2888 2889TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55 2890NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2891500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2011 2892 2893THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE HAS DETERIORATED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE 2894DAY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED. 2895PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW SHEARED TO THE EAST 2896AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND 2897SAB HAVE DECREASED. ADDITIONALLY...A NOAA DRIFTER BUOY 41558 2898RECENTLY PASSED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND REPORTED A 2899SURFACE PRESSURE OF 989 MB...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WEAKENING IS 2900OCCURRING. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED 2901TO 60 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED BASED ON THE 2902RECENT RAPID DECLINE OF PHILIPPE. HOWEVER THE GENERAL REASONING FOR 2903THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR 2904THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A HOSTILE 2905ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. THE STORM IS 2906EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR TWO AS IT 2907CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND 2908ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 2909 2910PHILIPPE HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...AND THE ESTIMATED 2911FORWARD MOTION IS 070/11 KT. DESPITE THE SLOWING...AN INCREASE IN 2912FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS STILL EXPECTED AS 2913THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE REMNANTS OF 2914PHILIPPE ARE FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW 2915PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII 2916FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM FOLLOW GUIDANCE PROVIDED 2917BY THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 2918 2919FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2920 2921INIT 07/2100Z 30.1N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 2922 12H 08/0600Z 31.5N 51.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 2923 24H 08/1800Z 35.0N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 2924 36H 09/0600Z 39.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2925 48H 09/1800Z 42.5N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2926 72H 10/1800Z 49.5N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2927 96H 11/1800Z 58.0N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2928120H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED 2929 2930$$ 2931FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY 2932 2933 2934WTNT42 KNHC 080244 2935TCDAT2 2936 2937TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 2938NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 29391100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2011 2940 2941PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL 2942HOURS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 40 2943KT...HAS CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST 2944OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF THE LATEST 2945DVORAK CI- AND T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 60 2946KT. CONTINUED HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO 2947THE CYCLONE...AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE 2948THE TROPICAL STORM TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO 2949BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24-36 HOURS WHEN IT MERGES WITH 2950A COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING 2951ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE 2952NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. 2953 2954THE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND THE 2955LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/14. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST 2956WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A 2957DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT APPROACHES PHILIPPE. AFTER 2958EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK 2959NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. 2960 2961THE POST-TROPICAL PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 2962GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE 34-KT AND 296350-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED ON A 0022 UTC ASCAT 2964OVERPASS. 2965 2966FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2967 2968INIT 08/0300Z 30.7N 52.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 2969 12H 08/1200Z 32.7N 49.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 2970 24H 09/0000Z 36.6N 45.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 2971 36H 09/1200Z 40.1N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2972 48H 10/0000Z 43.0N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2973 72H 11/0000Z 50.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2974 96H 12/0000Z 58.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2975120H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED 2976 2977$$ 2978FORECASTER CANGIALOSI 2979 2980 2981WTNT42 KNHC 080836 2982TCDAT2 2983 2984TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57 2985NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2986500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011 2987 2988AN AMSU-B PASS AT 0509 UTC AND ANOTHER ONE AT 0618 UTC CONFIRMED 2989THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS EXPOSED AND LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE 2990CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE...THE 2991CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH EXCEPT THAT IT IS BECOMING 2992MORE ELONGATED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION 2993OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY 2994ESTIMATES SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THE 2995CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS KEPT AT 989 MB BASED ON A RECENT REPORT OF 990 2996MB FROM A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE. GLOBAL MODELS 2997CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT PHILIPPE WILL INTERACT WITH OR BECOME 2998ABSORBED BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THERE IS A GOOD 2999CHANCE THAT PHILIPPE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 3000 3001THE TROPICAL STORM HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING 3002TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 21 KNOTS. AS THE STRONG 3003MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD 3004THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD 3005CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE POST-TROPICAL 3006PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY 3007THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 3008 3009 3010FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3011 3012INIT 08/0900Z 31.1N 50.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 3013 12H 08/1800Z 33.5N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 3014 24H 09/0600Z 37.5N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3015 36H 09/1800Z 41.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3016 48H 10/0600Z 44.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3017 72H 11/0600Z 52.5N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3018 96H 12/0600Z 58.0N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3019120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED 3020 3021$$ 3022FORECASTER AVILA 3023 3024 3025WTNT42 KNHC 081454 3026TCDAT2 3027 3028TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 58 3029NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 30301100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011 3031 3032MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES AND REPORTS FROM DRIFTING BUOY 41575 3033INDICATE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS 3034ADVISORY POSITION. OTHERWISE...THE CYCLONE IS ON TRACK AND IS 3035ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 050/25 KT. THERE IS NO 3036SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. 3037PHILIPPE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A 3038SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM 3039NEWFOUNDLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FLOW AHEAD 3040OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND BACK AROUND TO A 3041SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE 3042PHILIPPE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COLD WATERS THAT LIE JUST NORTH 3043OF 37N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF 3044THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN 3045AND TVCA. 3046 3047SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 40 KT...COUPLED WITH 3048SSTS BELOW 24C...IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION 3049BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. PHILIPPE COULD ALSO MERGE WITH AN 3050APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. THE BOTTOM 3051LINE IS THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 3052PERIOD AND BE FULLY POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS OVER 3053THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE 3054SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN 3055PREDICTION CENTER. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON INPUT FROM THE OCEAN 3056PREDICTION CENTER. 3057 3058FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3059 3060INIT 08/1500Z 33.2N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 3061 12H 09/0000Z 35.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 3062 24H 09/1200Z 39.1N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3063 36H 10/0000Z 42.5N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3064 48H 10/1200Z 46.3N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3065 72H 11/1200Z 54.0N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3066 96H 12/1200Z 59.0N 18.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3067120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED 3068 3069$$ 3070FORECASTER STEWART 3071 3072 3073WTNT42 KNHC 082053 3074TCDAT2 3075 3076TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 59 3077NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 3078500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011 3079 3080VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CLOUD 3081PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ELONGATED 3082NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 3083SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. PHILIPPE IS ALSO MOVING OVER 3084COOLER WATER NOW AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ENCROACHING 3085FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL 3086CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 3087BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND 3088UW-CIMSS. 3089 3090THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26 KT. PHILIPPE SHOULD 3091CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL 3092TROUGH AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3093THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT 3094AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY 3095FORECASTS ARE JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE... 3096AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED 3097BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 3098 3099FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3100 3101INIT 08/2100Z 35.3N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 3102 12H 09/0600Z 37.4N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3103 24H 09/1800Z 40.5N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3104 36H 10/0600Z 44.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3105 48H 10/1800Z 48.5N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3106 72H 11/1800Z 56.5N 24.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3107 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED 3108 3109$$ 3110FORECASTER STEWART 3111 3112 3113WTNT42 KNHC 082052 3114TCDAT2 3115 3116TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 59 3117NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 3118500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011 3119 3120VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CLOUD 3121PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ELONGATED 3122NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 3123SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. PHILIPPE IS ALSO MOVING OVER 3124COOLER WATER NOW AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ENCROACHING 3125FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL 3126CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 3127BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND 3128UW-CIMSS. 3129 3130THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26 KT. PHILIPPE SHOULD 3131CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL 3132TROUGH AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3133THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT 3134AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY 3135FORECASTS ARE JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE... 3136AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED 3137BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 3138 3139FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3140 3141INIT 08/2100Z 35.3N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 3142 12H 09/0600Z 37.4N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3143 24H 09/1800Z 40.5N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3144 36H 10/0600Z 44.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3145 48H 10/1800Z 48.5N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3146 72H 11/1800Z 56.5N 24.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3147 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED 3148 3149$$ 3150FORECASTER STEWART 3151 3152 3153