1WTNT32 KNHC 031304 2TCPAT2 3 4BULLETIN 5TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 7800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 8 9...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... 10...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF 11COAST... 12 13 14SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION 15---------------------------------------------- 16LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W 17ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO 18ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 19MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H 20PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H 21MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES 22 23 24WATCHES AND WARNINGS 25-------------------- 26CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 27 28A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO 29INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW 30ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 31 32A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO 33MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE 34MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. 35 36SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 37 38A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 39* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 40 41A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 42* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... 43* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 44* LAKE MAUREPAS 45* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 46 47A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 48WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS 49BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 50WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR 51DANGEROUS. 52 53A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 54POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 55 56FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 57INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 58YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 59 60 61DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 62------------------------------ 63AT 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 64LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR 65LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD 66THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD 67THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 68NEXT 48 HOURS. 69 70MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 71GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND 72KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. 73 74TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM 75FROM THE CENTER. 76 77THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIR 78FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. 79 80 81HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 82---------------------- 83WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 84HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM 85CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY. 86 87RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 88PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA 89DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 90 91 92NEXT ADVISORY 93------------- 94NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 95 96$$ 97FORECASTER BRENNAN 98 99 100WTNT32 KNHC 031438 101TCPAT2 102 103BULLETIN 104TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 105NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1061000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 107 108...KAREN A LITTLE STRONGER... 109 110 111SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 112----------------------------------------------- 113LOCATION...22.2N 87.9W 114ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO 115ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 116MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H 117PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H 118MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES 119 120 121WATCHES AND WARNINGS 122-------------------- 123CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 124 125NONE. 126 127SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 128 129A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 130* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 131 132A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 133* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 134* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 135* LAKE MAUREPAS 136* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 137 138A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 139WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 140THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 141WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR 142DANGEROUS. 143 144A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 145POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 146 147FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 148INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 149YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 150 151 152DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 153------------------------------ 154AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 155LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST. KAREN IS 156MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN 157TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED 158DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN 159IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA 160ON SATURDAY. 161 162DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 163THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 164KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE 165IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR 166HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. 167 168TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM 169FROM THE CENTER. 170 171THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. 172 173 174HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 175---------------------- 176WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 177HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM 178CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY. 179 180RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 181PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA 182DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 183 184 185NEXT ADVISORY 186------------- 187NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 188NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 189 190$$ 191FORECASTER BRENNAN 192 193 194WTNT32 KNHC 031754 195TCPAT2 196 197BULLETIN 198TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A 199NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 200100 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 201 202...KAREN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY... 203 204 205SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 206---------------------------------------------- 207LOCATION...22.9N 88.2W 208ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 209MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H 210PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H 211MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES 212 213 214WATCHES AND WARNINGS 215-------------------- 216CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 217 218NONE. 219 220SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 221 222A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 223* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 224 225A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 226* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 227* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 228* LAKE MAUREPAS 229* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 230 231A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 232WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 233THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 234CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 235 236A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 237POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 238 239FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 240INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 241YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 242 243 244DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 245------------------------------ 246AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 247LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. KAREN IS 248MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN 249TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING 250THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN IS 251EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON 252SATURDAY. 253 254MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 255GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND 256KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. 257 258TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM 259FROM THE CENTER. 260 261THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. 262 263 264HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 265---------------------- 266WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 267HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM 268CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY. 269 270STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 271NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 272THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 273PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 274 275MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 276EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT 277APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 278SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 279 280THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO 281THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE 282ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING 283DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE... 284AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC 285TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 286WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 287 288RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS 289OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE 290NEXT DAY OR SO. 291 292 293NEXT ADVISORY 294------------- 295NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 296 297$$ 298FORECASTER BRENNAN 299 300 301WTNT32 KNHC 032047 302TCPAT2 303 304BULLETIN 305TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 306NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 307400 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 308 309...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN 310LOUISIANA... 311 312 313SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 314---------------------------------------------- 315LOCATION...23.3N 88.5W 316ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 317MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H 318PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H 319MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 320 321 322WATCHES AND WARNINGS 323-------------------- 324CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 325 326A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO 327THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN 328NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. 329 330THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN 331CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. 332 333SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 334 335A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 336* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA 337 338A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 339* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 340 341A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 342* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 343* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 344* LAKE MAUREPAS 345* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 346* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 347 348A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 349WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 350THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 351CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 352 353A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 354EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 355 356A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 357POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 358 359FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 360INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 361YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 362 363 364DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 365------------------------------ 366AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 367LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR 368LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD 369THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH 370AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 371HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO 372BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. 373 374DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 375NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS 376FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR 377NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. 378 379TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM 380MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 381 382THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT 383WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES 384 385 386HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 387---------------------- 388WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 389HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 390POSSIBLE AS SOON AS FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 391EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY 392FRIDAY NIGHT. 393 394STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 395NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 396THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 397PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 398 399MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 400EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT 401APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 402SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 403 404THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO 405THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE 406ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING 407DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE... 408AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC 409TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 410WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 411 412RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 413INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST 414THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF 415THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 416ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER 417PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. 418 419 420NEXT ADVISORY 421------------- 422NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 423NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 424 425$$ 426FORECASTER BRENNAN 427 428 429WTNT32 KNHC 032340 430TCPAT2 431 432BULLETIN 433TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A 434NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 435700 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 436 437...TROPICAL STORM KAREN HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... 438 439 440SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 441---------------------------------------------- 442LOCATION...23.8N 88.9W 443ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 444MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H 445PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H 446MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 447 448 449WATCHES AND WARNINGS 450-------------------- 451CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 452 453NONE 454 455SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 456 457A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 458* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA 459 460A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 461* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 462 463A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 464* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 465* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 466* LAKE MAUREPAS 467* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 468* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 469 470A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 471WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 472THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 473CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 474 475A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 476EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 477 478A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 479POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 480 481FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 482INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 483YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 484 485 486 487DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 488------------------------------ 489AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 490LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR 491LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD 492THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH 493WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 494HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO 495BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. 496 497DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM 498SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 499SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KAREN IS 500EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY 501SATURDAY. 502 503TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM 504MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 505 506THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY BOTH HURRICANE 507HUNTER PLANES WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES 508 509 510HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 511---------------------- 512WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 513HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 514POSSIBLE AS SOON AS FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 515EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY 516FRIDAY NIGHT. 517 518STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 519NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 520THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 521PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 522 523MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 524EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT 525APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 526SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 527 528THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO 529THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE 530ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING 531DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE... 532AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC 533TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 534WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 535 536RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 537INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST 538THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF 539THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 540ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER 541PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. 542 543 544NEXT ADVISORY 545------------- 546NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 547 548$$ 549FORECASTER AVILA 550 551 552WTNT32 KNHC 040243 553TCPAT2 554 555BULLETIN 556TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 557NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 5581000 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 559 560...KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF 561MEXICO ON FRIDAY... 562 563 564SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 565----------------------------------------------- 566LOCATION...24.2N 89.0W 567ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 568MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H 569PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 570MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 571 572 573WATCHES AND WARNINGS 574-------------------- 575CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 576 577NONE 578 579SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 580 581A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 582* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA 583 584A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 585* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 586 587A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 588* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 589* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 590* LAKE MAUREPAS 591* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 592* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 593 594A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 595WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 596THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 597CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 598 599A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 600EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 601 602A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 603POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 604 605FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 606INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 607YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 608 609 610DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 611------------------------------ 612TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS BEEN EXTENSIVELY INVESTIGATED BY AIR FORCE 613AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES THIS EVENING. AT 1000 PM CDT... 6140300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED BY THOSE 615PLANES NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. KAREN IS 616MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN 617TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON 618FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE 619FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 620COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. 621 622MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 623GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 624TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND 625EARLY SATURDAY. 626 627TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM 628PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 629 630THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE 631AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. 632 633 634HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 635---------------------- 636WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 637HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 638EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY 639FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. 640 641STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 642NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 643THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 644PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 645 646WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 2 FT 647MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 648EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT 649APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 650SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 651 652THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO 653THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE 654ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING 655DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE... 656AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC 657TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL 658WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 659 660RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 661INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST 662THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF 663THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 664ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER 665PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. 666 667 668NEXT ADVISORY 669------------- 670NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. 671NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 672 673$$ 674FORECASTER AVILA 675 676 677WTNT32 KNHC 040545 678TCPAT2 679 680BULLETIN 681TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A 682NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 683100 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 684 685...KAREN CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF 686MEXICO... 687 688 689SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 690---------------------------------------------- 691LOCATION...24.5N 89.5W 692ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 693MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H 694PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 695MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 696 697 698WATCHES AND WARNINGS 699-------------------- 700CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 701 702NONE 703 704SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 705 706A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 707* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA 708 709A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 710* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 711 712A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 713* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 714* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 715* LAKE MAUREPAS 716* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 717* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 718 719A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 720WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 721THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 722CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 723 724A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 725EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 726 727A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 728POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 729 730FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 731STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 732MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 733FORECAST OFFICE. 734 735 736DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 737------------------------------ 738AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 739LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST. KAREN IS 740MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN 741TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER 742TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE 743FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 744COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. 745 746MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 747GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 748TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE TODAY AND 749EARLY SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 750CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE KAREN. 751 752TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM 753PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 754 755THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. 756 757 758HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 759---------------------- 760WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 761HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 762EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY 763TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. 764 765STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 766NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 767THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 768PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 769 770WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 771MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT 772EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 773APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 774SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 775 776THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO 777THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE 778ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON 779THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY 780GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR 781AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER 782SERVICE OFFICE. 783 784RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 785INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST 786THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF 787THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 788ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER 789PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. 790 791 792NEXT ADVISORY 793------------- 794NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 795 796$$ 797FORECASTER BEVEN 798 799 800WTNT32 KNHC 040851 801TCPAT2 802 803BULLETIN 804TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 805NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 806400 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 807 808...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR 809SATURDAY NIGHT... 810 811 812SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 813---------------------------------------------- 814LOCATION...24.9N 89.8W 815ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 816MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H 817PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 818MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 819 820 821WATCHES AND WARNINGS 822-------------------- 823CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 824 825NONE 826 827SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 828 829A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 830* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA 831 832A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 833* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 834 835A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 836* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 837* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 838* LAKE MAUREPAS 839* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 840* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 841 842A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 843WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 844THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 845CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 846 847A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 848EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 849 850A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 851POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 852 853INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF THE 854GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 855 856FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 857STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 858MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 859FORECAST OFFICE. 860 861 862DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 863------------------------------ 864AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 865LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST. KAREN IS 866MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN 867TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER 868TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY OR SATURDAY 869NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO 870BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON 871SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. 872 873REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 874INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 87560 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS 876EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE 877SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 878 879TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM 880MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.. 881 882THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA 883AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. 884 885 886HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 887---------------------- 888WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 889HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM 890CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM 891WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. 892 893STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 894NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 895THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 896PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 897 898WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 899MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT 900EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 901APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 902SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 903 904THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO 905THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE 906ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON 907THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY 908GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR 909AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER 910SERVICE OFFICE. 911 912RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 913INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST 914THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF 915THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 916 917 918NEXT ADVISORY 919------------- 920NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. 921NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 922 923$$ 924FORECASTER BEVEN 925 926 927WTNT32 KNHC 041143 928TCPAT2 929 930BULLETIN 931TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A 932NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 933700 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 934 935...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD 936LATER TODAY... 937 938 939SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 940---------------------------------------------- 941LOCATION...25.2N 90.0W 942ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 943MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H 944PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 945MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 946 947 948WATCHES AND WARNINGS 949-------------------- 950CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 951 952NONE 953 954SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 955 956A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 957* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA 958 959A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 960* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 961 962A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 963* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 964* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 965* LAKE MAUREPAS 966* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 967* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 968 969A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 970WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 971THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 972CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 973 974A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 975EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 976 977A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 978POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 979 980INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 981MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 982 983FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 984INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 985YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 986 987 988DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 989------------------------------ 990AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 991LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR 992LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD 993THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH 994WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A 995GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE 996FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 997COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY OR 998SATURDAY NIGHT. 999 1000MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 1001GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT... 1002WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 1003 1004TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM 1005MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED 1006ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY 1007REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 100849 MPH...79 KM/H. 1009 1010THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE 1011AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. 1012 1013 1014HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1015---------------------- 1016WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 1017HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM 1018CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM 1019WARNING AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. 1020 1021STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 1022NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 1023THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 1024PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 1025 1026WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1027MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT 1028EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1029APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT 1030SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 1031 1032THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO 1033THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE 1034ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON 1035THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY 1036GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR 1037AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER 1038SERVICE OFFICE. 1039 1040RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 1041INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH 1042SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE 1043CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 1044 1045 1046NEXT ADVISORY 1047------------- 1048NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 1049 1050$$ 1051FORECASTER BRENNAN 1052 1053 1054WTNT32 KNHC 041431 1055TCPAT2 1056 1057BULLETIN 1058TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 1059NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 10601000 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 1061 1062...KAREN A LITTLE WEAKER... 1063...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY... 1064 1065 1066SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 1067----------------------------------------------- 1068LOCATION...25.6N 90.2W 1069ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 1070ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 1071MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 1072PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 1073MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 1074 1075 1076WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1077-------------------- 1078CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1079 1080THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM GRAND 1081ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY. 1082 1083SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1084 1085A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1086* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA 1087 1088A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1089* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 1090 1091A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1092* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 1093* LAKE MAUREPAS 1094* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 1095* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 1096 1097THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR 1098WARNING LATER TODAY. 1099 1100A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 1101WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE 1102THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 1103CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 1104 1105A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1106EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1107 1108A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1109POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1110 1111INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 1112MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 1113 1114FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 1115INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 1116YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 1117 1118 1119DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1120------------------------------ 1121AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 1122LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS 1123MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN 1124TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY 1125EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY... 1126WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 1127CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE 1128TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. 1129 1130MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... 1131WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE 1132NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT 1133AND SUNDAY. 1134 1135TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 1136KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 1137LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY 1138REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 113951 MPH...83 KM/H. 1140 1141THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. 1142 1143 1144HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1145---------------------- 1146WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 1147TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE 1148POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. 1149 1150STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 1151NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 1152THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 1153PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 1154 1155WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1156MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT 1157EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1158APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT 1159SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 1160 1161THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO 1162THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE 1163ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON 1164THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY 1165GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR 1166AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER 1167SERVICE OFFICE. 1168 1169RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 1170INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH 1171SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE 1172CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 1173 1174 1175NEXT ADVISORY 1176------------- 1177NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 1178NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 1179 1180$$ 1181FORECASTER BRENNAN 1182 1183 1184WTNT32 KNHC 041758 1185TCPAT2 1186 1187BULLETIN 1188TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A 1189NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1190100 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 1191 1192...KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... 1193 1194 1195SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 1196---------------------------------------------- 1197LOCATION...25.8N 90.2W 1198ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 1199ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 1200MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 1201PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H 1202MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 1203 1204 1205WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1206-------------------- 1207CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1208 1209NONE. 1210 1211SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1212 1213A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1214* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA 1215 1216A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1217* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 1218 1219A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1220* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 1221* LAKE MAUREPAS 1222* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 1223* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 1224 1225A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 1226WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A 1227TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY. 1228 1229A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1230EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1231 1232A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1233POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1234 1235INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 1236MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 1237 1238FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 1239INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 1240YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 1241 1242 1243DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1244------------------------------ 1245AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 1246LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS 1247MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN 1248TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY 1249EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON 1250SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST 1251TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN 1252THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. 1253 1254MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 1255GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 1256SO...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 1257 1258TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 1259KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 1260LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES...50 KM...EAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY 1261REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 126254 MPH...86 KM/H. 1263 1264THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. 1265 1266 1267HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1268---------------------- 1269WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 1270TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE 1271POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. 1272 1273STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 1274NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 1275THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 1276PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 1277 1278WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1279MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT 1280EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1281APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT 1282SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 1283 1284THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO 1285THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE 1286ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON 1287THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY 1288GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR 1289AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER 1290SERVICE OFFICE. 1291 1292RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 1293INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH 1294SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE 1295CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 1296 1297 1298NEXT ADVISORY 1299------------- 1300NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 1301 1302$$ 1303FORECASTER BRENNAN 1304 1305 1306WTNT32 KNHC 042038 1307TCPAT2 1308 1309BULLETIN 1310TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 1311NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1312400 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 1313 1314...KAREN DISORGANIZED... 1315...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED... 1316 1317 1318SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 1319---------------------------------------------- 1320LOCATION...25.9N 90.3W 1321ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 1322ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 1323MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 1324PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H 1325MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 1326 1327 1328WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1329-------------------- 1330CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1331 1332THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO DESTIN 1333FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...AND THE 1334HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE. 1335 1336SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1337 1338A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1339* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 1340 1341A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1342* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 1343* LAKE MAUREPAS 1344* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 1345* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 1346 1347A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1348EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1349 1350A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1351POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1352 1353INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 1354MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 1355 1356FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 1357INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 1358YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 1359 1360 1361DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1362------------------------------ 1363AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 1364LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. KAREN IS 1365MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN 1366TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON 1367SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD 1368SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 1369KAREN IS EXPECTED BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING 1370SATURDAY NIGHT. 1371 1372DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 1373THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH 1374HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND 1375SATURDAY. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND 1376SUNDAY. 1377 1378TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 1379KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 1380 1381THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT 1382IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. 1383 1384 1385HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1386---------------------- 1387WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 1388WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1389POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 1390 1391STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 1392NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 1393THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 1394PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 1395 1396WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1397MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...3 TO 5 FT 1398EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1399APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT 1400SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 1401 1402THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 1403SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 1404FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 1405CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 1406SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 1407NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 1408 1409RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 1410INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH 1411SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE 1412CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 1413 1414 1415NEXT ADVISORY 1416------------- 1417NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 1418NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 1419 1420$$ 1421FORECASTER BRENNAN 1422 1423 1424WTNT32 KNHC 042337 1425TCPAT2 1426 1427BULLETIN 1428TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A 1429NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1430700 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 1431 1432...KAREN HESITATES IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... 1433 1434 1435SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 1436---------------------------------------------- 1437LOCATION...25.9N 90.3W 1438ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 1439ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 1440MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 1441PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY 1442MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 1443 1444 1445WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1446-------------------- 1447CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1448 1449NONE 1450 1451SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1452 1453A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1454* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 1455 1456A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1457* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 1458* LAKE MAUREPAS 1459* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 1460* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 1461 1462A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1463EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1464 1465A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1466POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1467 1468INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 1469MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 1470 1471FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 1472INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 1473YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 1474 1475 1476DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1477------------------------------ 1478AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 1479LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. KAREN HAS 1480BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE 1481CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H 1482LATER TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD 1483SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 1484WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE 1485FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED BE NEAR THE COAST 1486IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT. 1487 1488DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 1489INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 1490KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST 1491TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY 1492NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 1493 1494TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 1495KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 1496 1497THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT 1498IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. 1499 1500 1501HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1502---------------------- 1503WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 1504WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1505POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 1506 1507STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 1508NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 1509THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 1510PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 1511 1512WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1513MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...3 TO 5 FT 1514EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1515APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT 1516SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 1517 1518THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 1519SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 1520FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 1521CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 1522SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 1523NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 1524 1525RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 1526INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH 1527SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE 1528CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 1529 1530 1531NEXT ADVISORY 1532------------- 1533NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 1534 1535$$ 1536FORECASTER AVILA/RAPPAPORT 1537 1538 1539WTNT32 KNHC 050235 1540TCPAT2 1541 1542BULLETIN 1543TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 1544NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 15451000 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 1546 1547...KAREN LOSING PUNCH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OE MEXICO... 1548 1549 1550SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 1551----------------------------------------------- 1552LOCATION...26.4N 90.5W 1553ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 1554ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 1555MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 1556PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H 1557MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 1558 1559 1560WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1561-------------------- 1562CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1563 1564NONE 1565 1566SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1567 1568A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1569* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 1570 1571A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1572* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 1573* LAKE MAUREPAS 1574* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 1575* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 1576 1577A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1578EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1579 1580A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1581POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1582 1583INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 1584MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 1585 1586FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 1587INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 1588YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 1589 1590 1591DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1592------------------------------ 1593AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 1594LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST. KAREN IS 1595MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN 1596TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON 1597SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN 1598FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 1599CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL 1600STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. 1601 1602MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... 1603WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING ON 1604SATURDAY NIGHT. 1605 1606TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM 1607TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 1608 1609THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE 1610AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. 1611 1612 1613HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1614---------------------- 1615WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 1616WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1617POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 1618 1619STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 1620NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 1621THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 1622PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 1623 1624WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1625MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...3 TO 5 FT 1626EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1627APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT 1628SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 1629 1630THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 1631SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 1632FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 1633CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 1634SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 1635NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 1636 1637RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 1638TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST 1639UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT 1640OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES 1641ARE POSSIBLE. 1642 1643NEXT ADVISORY 1644------------- 1645NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. 1646NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 1647 1648$$ 1649FORECASTER AVILA 1650 1651 1652WTNT32 KNHC 050548 1653TCPAT2 1654 1655BULLETIN 1656TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A 1657NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1658100 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 1659 1660...DISORGANIZED KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... 1661 1662 1663SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 1664---------------------------------------------- 1665LOCATION...26.7N 90.9W 1666ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 1667ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 1668MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 1669PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H 1670MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES 1671 1672 1673WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1674-------------------- 1675CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1676 1677NONE 1678 1679SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1680 1681A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1682* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 1683 1684A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1685* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 1686* LAKE MAUREPAS 1687* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 1688* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 1689 1690A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1691EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1692 1693A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1694POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1695 1696INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 1697MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 1698 1699FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 1700STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 1701MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 1702FORECAST OFFICE. 1703 1704 1705DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1706------------------------------ 1707AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 1708LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST. KAREN IS 1709MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN 1710TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST LATER 1711TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN 1712FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 1713CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL 1714STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT. 1715 1716MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... 1717WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. 1718THERE IS A CHANCE OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TONIGHT. 1719 1720TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM 1721TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN OIL PLATFORM NORTHEAST OF 1722THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH... 172363 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 750 FEET. 1724 1725THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.59 INCHES. 1726 1727 1728HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1729---------------------- 1730WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 1731WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1732POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 1733 1734STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 1735NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 1736THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 1737PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 1738 1739WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1740MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...2 TO 4 FT 1741EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1742APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT 1743SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 1744 1745THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 1746SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 1747FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 1748CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 1749SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 1750NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 1751 1752RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 1753TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST 1754UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT 1755OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES 1756ARE POSSIBLE. 1757 1758 1759NEXT ADVISORY 1760------------- 1761NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 1762 1763$$ 1764FORECASTER BEVEN 1765 1766 1767WTNT32 KNHC 050847 1768TCPAT2 1769 1770BULLETIN 1771TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 1772NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1773400 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 1774 1775...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF 1776COAST... 1777 1778 1779SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 1780---------------------------------------------- 1781LOCATION...27.1N 91.3W 1782ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 1783ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 1784MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 1785PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H 1786MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES 1787 1788 1789WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1790-------------------- 1791CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1792 1793NONE 1794 1795SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1796 1797A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1798* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 1799 1800A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1801* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 1802* LAKE MAUREPAS 1803* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 1804* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 1805 1806A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1807EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 1808 1809A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1810POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1811 1812INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 1813MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 1814 1815FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 1816STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 1817MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 1818FORECAST OFFICE. 1819 1820 1821DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1822------------------------------ 1823AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 1824LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. KAREN IS 1825MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN 1826TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE 1827NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN 1828INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST 1829TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE COAST IN 1830THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. 1831 1832MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 1833GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 1834HOURS. 1835 1836TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM 1837FROM THE CENTER. 1838 1839THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA 1840HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. 1841 1842 1843HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1844---------------------- 1845WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 1846WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1847POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 1848 1849STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 1850NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 1851THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 1852PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 1853 1854TERREBONNE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1855APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT 1856SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 1857 1858THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 1859SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 1860FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 1861CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 1862SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 1863NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 1864 1865RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 1866TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST 1867UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT 1868OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES 1869ARE POSSIBLE. 1870 1871 1872NEXT ADVISORY 1873------------- 1874NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. 1875NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 1876 1877$$ 1878FORECASTER BEVEN 1879 1880 1881WTNT32 KNHC 051140 1882TCPAT2 1883 1884BULLETIN 1885TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A 1886NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1887700 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 1888 1889...KAREN MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... 1890 1891 1892SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 1893---------------------------------------------- 1894LOCATION...27.5N 91.5W 1895ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 1896ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 1897MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 1898PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H 1899MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES 1900 1901 1902WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1903-------------------- 1904CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 1905 1906NONE. 1907 1908SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 1909 1910A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1911* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 1912 1913A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 1914* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 1915* LAKE MAUREPAS 1916* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 1917* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 1918 1919A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1920EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.MAXIMUM 1921SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 1922LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 1923 1924TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 1925KM...MAINLY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 1926 1927THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 1928HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. 1929 1930A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1931POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 1932 1933INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 1934MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 1935 1936FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 1937INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 1938YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 1939 1940 1941DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1942------------------------------ 1943AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 1944LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. KAREN IS 1945MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A DECREASE IN 1946FORAWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE 1947NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON 1948THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR 1949THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY 1950MORNING. 1951 1952MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 1953GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 1954HOURS. 1955 1956TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 1957KM...MAINLY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 1958 1959THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 1960HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. 1961 1962 1963HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1964---------------------- 1965WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 1966WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 1967POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 1968 1969STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 1970NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 1971THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 1972PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 1973 1974TERREBONNE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT 1975APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT 1976SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT 1977 1978THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 1979SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 1980FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 1981CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 1982SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 1983NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 1984 1985RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 1986TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST 1987UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT 1988OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES 1989ARE POSSIBLE. 1990 1991 1992NEXT ADVISORY 1993------------- 1994NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 1995 1996$$ 1997FORECASTER BRENNAN 1998 1999 2000WTNT32 KNHC 051432 2001TCPAT2 2002 2003BULLETIN 2004TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 2005NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 20061000 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 2007 2008...KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND 2009EARLY SUNDAY... 2010 2011 2012SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 2013----------------------------------------------- 2014LOCATION...27.9N 91.7W 2015ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 2016ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 2017MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2018PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H 2019MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES 2020 2021 2022WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2023-------------------- 2024CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2025 2026NONE. 2027 2028SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2029 2030A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2031* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 2032 2033A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2034* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 2035* LAKE MAUREPAS 2036* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 2037* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 2038 2039A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2040EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. 2041 2042A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2043POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. 2044 2045INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 2046MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 2047 2048FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 2049INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 2050YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 2051 2052 2053DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2054------------------------------ 2055AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 2056LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS 2057MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE 2058NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION 2059TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST 2060TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF 2061SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE 2062COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 2063 2064MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 2065GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST AND 2066SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN RAINBANDS. KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 2067TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY. 2068 2069TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 2070KM...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 2071CENTER. 2072 2073THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. 2074 2075 2076HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2077---------------------- 2078WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 2079WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2080POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 2081 2082STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 2083NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 2084THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 2085PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 2086 2087TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...1 TO 3 FT 2088 2089THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 2090SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 2091FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 2092CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 2093SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 2094NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 2095 2096RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 2097TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST 2098UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT 2099OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES 2100ARE POSSIBLE. 2101 2102 2103NEXT ADVISORY 2104------------- 2105NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. 2106NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 2107 2108$$ 2109FORECASTER BRENNAN 2110 2111 2112WTNT32 KNHC 051754 2113TCPAT2 2114 2115BULLETIN 2116TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A 2117NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2118100 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 2119 2120...KAREN STALLS... 2121...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 2122TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... 2123 2124 2125SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 2126---------------------------------------------- 2127LOCATION...27.9N 91.8W 2128ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 2129ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 2130MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2131PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY 2132MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES 2133 2134 2135WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2136-------------------- 2137CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2138 2139NONE. 2140 2141SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2142 2143A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2144* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 2145 2146A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2147* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS 2148* LAKE MAUREPAS 2149* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 2150* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA 2151 2152A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2153EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. 2154 2155A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2156POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. 2157 2158INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF 2159MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. 2160 2161FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE 2162INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 2163YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 2164 2165 2166DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2167------------------------------ 2168AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 2169LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR 2170LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. KAREN HAS BEEN NEARLY 2171STATIONARY FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE 2172NORTH IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A TURN TOWARD THE 2173NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION 2174TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST 2175TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF 2176SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE 2177COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 2178 2179MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 2180GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 2181CENTER IN RAINBANDS. KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 2182DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY. 2183 2184TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 2185KM...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 2186 2187THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 21881009 MB...29.80 INCHES. 2189 2190 2191HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2192---------------------- 2193WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE 2194WARNING AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2195POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 2196 2197STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 2198NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 2199THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 2200PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 2201 2202TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...1 TO 3 FT 2203 2204THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 2205SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 2206FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 2207CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 2208SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 2209NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 2210 2211RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 2212TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST 2213UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT 2214OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES 2215ARE POSSIBLE. 2216 2217 2218NEXT ADVISORY 2219------------- 2220NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. 2221 2222$$ 2223FORECASTER BRENNAN 2224 2225 2226WTNT32 KNHC 052035 2227TCPAT2 2228 2229BULLETIN 2230TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 2231NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2232400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 2233 2234...KAREN STILL A TROPICAL STORM... 2235 2236 2237SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 2238---------------------------------------------- 2239LOCATION...28.1N 91.7W 2240ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 2241ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 2242MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2243PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H 2244MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES 2245 2246 2247WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2248-------------------- 2249CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2250 2251THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE 2252LOUISIANA. 2253 2254ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. 2255 2256SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2257 2258A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2259* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 2260 2261A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2262EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE 2263NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 2264 2265FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... 2266INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR 2267PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST 2268OFFICE. 2269 2270 2271DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2272------------------------------ 2273AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 2274LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS 2275MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE 2276NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE 2277EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN 2278TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 2279CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN 2280LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST 2281FROM ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. 2282 2283DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 2284THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH 2285HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2286ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. 2287 2288TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM... 2289MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 2290 2291THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. 2292 2293 2294HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2295---------------------- 2296WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE 2297WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS. 2298 2299STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 2300NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 2301THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 2302PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 2303 2304SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...1 TO 3 FT 2305 2306THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 2307SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 2308FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 2309CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 2310SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 2311NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 2312 2313RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 23141 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST 2315UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT 2316OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES 2317ARE POSSIBLE. 2318 2319 2320NEXT ADVISORY 2321------------- 2322NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 2323NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 2324 2325$$ 2326FORECASTER BRENNAN 2327 2328 2329WTNT32 KNHC 052042 CCA 2330TCPAT2 2331 2332BULLETIN 2333TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED 2334NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2335400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 2336 2337CORRECTED FOR DEFINITION OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING 2338 2339...KAREN STILL A TROPICAL STORM... 2340 2341 2342SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 2343---------------------------------------------- 2344LOCATION...28.1N 91.7W 2345ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 2346ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 2347MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2348PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H 2349MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES 2350 2351 2352WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2353-------------------- 2354CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2355 2356THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE 2357LOUISIANA. 2358 2359ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. 2360 2361SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2362 2363A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2364* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 2365 2366A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2367EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE 2368NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 2369 2370FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... 2371INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR 2372PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST 2373OFFICE. 2374 2375 2376DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2377------------------------------ 2378AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 2379LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS 2380MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE 2381NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE 2382EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN 2383TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 2384CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN 2385LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST 2386FROM ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. 2387 2388DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 2389THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH 2390HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2391ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. 2392 2393TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM... 2394MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 2395 2396THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. 2397 2398 2399HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2400---------------------- 2401WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE 2402WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS. 2403 2404STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 2405NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 2406THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 2407PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 2408 2409SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...1 TO 3 FT 2410 2411THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 2412SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 2413FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 2414CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 2415SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 2416NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 2417 2418RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 24191 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST 2420UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT 2421OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES 2422ARE POSSIBLE. 2423 2424 2425NEXT ADVISORY 2426------------- 2427NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. 2428NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 2429 2430$$ 2431FORECASTER BRENNAN 2432 2433 2434WTNT32 KNHC 052340 2435TCPAT2 2436 2437BULLETIN 2438TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A 2439NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2440700 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 2441 2442...KAREN STATIONARY SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...... 2443 2444 2445SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 2446---------------------------------------------- 2447LOCATION...28.1N 91.7W 2448ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 2449ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 2450MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2451PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY 2452MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES 2453 2454 2455WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2456-------------------- 2457CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2458 2459NONE. 2460 2461SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2462 2463A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 2464* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER 2465 2466A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 2467EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE 2468NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 2469 2470FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 2471STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 2472MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2473FORECAST OFFICE. 2474 2475 2476DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2477------------------------------ 2478AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS 2479LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN HAS 2480BEEN STATIONARY THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A TURN TOWARD THE 2481NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE 2482EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN 2483TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 2484CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN 2485LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF 2486COAST FROM ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND 2487MONDAY. 2488 2489MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 2490GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 2491SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. 2492 2493TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM... 2494MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 2495 2496THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. 2497 2498 2499HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2500---------------------- 2501WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE 2502WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS. 2503 2504STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE 2505NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. 2506THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE 2507PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... 2508 2509SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...1 TO 3 FT 2510 2511THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE 2512SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED 2513FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL 2514CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION 2515SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL 2516NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. 2517 2518RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 25191 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST 2520UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT 2521OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES 2522ARE POSSIBLE. 2523 2524 2525NEXT ADVISORY 2526------------- 2527NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. 2528 2529$$ 2530FORECASTER STEWART 2531 2532 2533WTNT32 KNHC 060235 2534TCPAT2 2535 2536BULLETIN 2537TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 2538NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 25391000 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 2540 2541...KAREN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF... 2542...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED... 2543 2544 2545SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 2546----------------------------------------------- 2547LOCATION...28.1N 91.9W 2548ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 2549ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 2550MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H 2551PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY 2552MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES 2553 2554 2555WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2556-------------------- 2557CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 2558 2559ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. 2560 2561SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 2562 2563THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT. 2564 2565INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO 2566MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2567FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. 2568 2569 2570DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2571------------------------------ 2572AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN 2573WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. THE 2574DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS 2575EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND 2576AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS 2577FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL 2578MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA ON 2579SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST FROM ALABAMA TO THE 2580FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. 2581 2582MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER 2583GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 2584HOURS...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 2585MONDAY. 2586 2587THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. 2588 2589 2590HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2591---------------------- 2592STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS 2593OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR 2594AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER 2595SERVICE OFFICE. 2596 2597RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 25981 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND 2599SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO 2600THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. 2601 2602 2603NEXT ADVISORY 2604------------- 2605NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. 2606 2607$$ 2608FORECASTER STEWART 2609 2610 2611WTNT32 KNHC 060831 2612TCPAT2 2613 2614BULLETIN 2615TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 2616NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2617400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 2618 2619...KAREN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... 2620 2621 2622SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 2623---------------------------------------------- 2624LOCATION...28.3N 91.7W 2625ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA 2626ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 2627MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H 2628PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H 2629MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES 2630 2631 2632WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2633-------------------- 2634THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 2635 2636INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO 2637MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2638FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. 2639 2640 2641DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2642------------------------------ 2643AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN 2644WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE 2645DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 2646KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN 2647FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST 2648TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME 2649SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA 2650AND MISSISSIPPI COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER 2651THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. 2652 2653MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 2654KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT 2655LOW LATER TODAY. 2656 2657THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. 2658 2659 2660HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2661---------------------- 2662STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS 2663OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR 2664AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER 2665SERVICE OFFICE. 2666 2667RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 2668TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN 2669STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE 2670PATH OF THE CENTER. 2671 2672 2673NEXT ADVISORY 2674------------- 2675NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. 2676 2677$$ 2678FORECASTER PASCH 2679 2680 2681