1WTNT35 KNHC 021557 2TCPAT5 3 4BULLETIN 5TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 71200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 8 9...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN 10THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... 11...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON... 12 13 14SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION 15----------------------------------------------- 16LOCATION...16.3N 80.2W 17ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN 18ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF BELIZE CITY 19MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 20PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H 21MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES 22 23 24WATCHES AND WARNINGS 25-------------------- 26CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 27 28The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm 29Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan 30peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/ 31Guatemala border. 32 33The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for 34the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward 35to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands. 36 37SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 38 39A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 40* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. 41 42A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 43* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border 44including the Bay Islands. 45 46A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... 47* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, 48southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. 49 50A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 51expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. 52 53A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible 54within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours 55before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force 56winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or 57dangerous. 58 59For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 60products issued by your national meteorological service. 61 62 63DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 64------------------------------ 65The strong tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has been 66tracking across the Caribbean Sea has developed into Tropical Storm 67Earl. At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near 68latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the 69west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in 70forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this 71track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north 72coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and 73the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday. 74 75Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 76Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the 77Yucatan peninsula. 78 79Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) 80from the center. 81 82The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was 831001 mb (29.56 inches). 84 85 86HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 87---------------------- 88WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 89coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations 90difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the 91warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin 92in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday 93night. 94 95RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches 96of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches 97are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 98Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts 99of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in 100life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 101 102STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 103to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 104Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the 105center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied 106by large and damaging waves. 107 108 109NEXT ADVISORY 110------------- 111Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. 112Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. 113 114$$ 115Forecaster Avila 116 117 118 119------------=_1470153455-2049-7388 120Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 121Content-Disposition: inline 122Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 123 124= = = == = = 125WTNT35 KNHC 021757 126TCPAT5 127 128BULLETIN 129TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A 130NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 131200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 132 133...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER... 134 135 136SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 137----------------------------------------------- 138LOCATION...16.3N 80.8W 139ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN 140MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 141PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H 142MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 143 144 145WATCHES AND WARNINGS 146-------------------- 147CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 148 149NONE 150 151SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 152 153A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 154* PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO, SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER 155* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER 156INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS 157 158A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 159* EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO, 160SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER 161 162A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 163* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS 164 165A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 166EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 167 168A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 169WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS 170BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 171WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR 172DANGEROUS. 173 174FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR 175PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 176 177 178DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 179------------------------------ 180AT 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS 181LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST. EARL IS 182MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION 183WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 184COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE CENTER OF EARL WILL BE MOVING 185VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND 186WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE 187WEDNESDAY. 188 189MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) 190WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST 191BEFORE EARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 192 193TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM) 194FROM THE CENTER. 195 196THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1971002 MB (29.59 INCHES). 198 199 200HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 201---------------------- 202WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE 203COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE TONIGHT, MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS 204DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS, AND WILL REACH MEXICO AND BELIZE WITHIN THE 205WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN 206IN MEXICO AND BELIZE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY 207NIGHT. 208 209RAINFALL: EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES 210OF RAINFALL OVER JAMAICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES 211ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE, HONDURAS, GUATEMALA, AND THE 212YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO, WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS 213OF 16 INCHES IN MEXICO AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN 214LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 215 216STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 217TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF 218BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE 219CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED 220BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. 221 222 223NEXT ADVISORY 224------------- 225NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. 226 227$$ 228FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN 229 230 231------------=_1470160661-6220-23 232Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 233Content-Disposition: inline 234Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 235 236= = = == = = 237WTNT35 KNHC 021915 238TCPAT5 239 240BULLETIN 241TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A 242NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 243200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 244 245...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER... 246 247 248SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 249---------------------------------------------- 250LOCATION...16.3N 80.8W 251ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN 252MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 253PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H 254MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 255 256 257WATCHES AND WARNINGS 258-------------------- 259CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 260 261None 262 263SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 264 265A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 266* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. 267 268A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 269* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border 270including the Bay Islands. 271 272A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... 273* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, 274southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. 275 276A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 277expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. 278 279A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible 280within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours 281before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force 282winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or 283dangerous. 284 285For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 286products issued by your national meteorological service. 287 288 289DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 290------------------------------ 291At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 292located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.3 West. Earl is 293moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with 294a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of 295days. On this track, the center of Earl will be moving very close 296to the north coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and 297approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday. 298 299Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 300with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before 301Earl reaches the Yucatan peninsula. 302 303Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) 304from the center. 305 306The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was 3071002 mb (29.59 inches). 308 309 310HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 311---------------------- 312WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 313coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations 314difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the 315warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin 316in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday 317night. 318 319RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches 320of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches 321are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 322Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts 323of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in 324life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 325 326STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 327to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 328Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the 329center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied 330by large and damaging waves. 331 332 333NEXT ADVISORY 334------------- 335Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. 336 337$$ 338Forecaster Avila/Brown 339 340 341 342------------=_1470165364-6220-49 343Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 344Content-Disposition: inline 345Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 346 347= = = == = = 348WTNT35 KNHC 022034 349TCPAT5 350 351BULLETIN 352TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 353NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 354500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 355 356...TROPICAL STORM EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE HONDURAS BAY 357ISLANDS ON ITS WAY TO BELIZE... 358 359 360SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 361---------------------------------------------- 362LOCATION...16.4N 81.5W 363ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN 364ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF BELIZE CITY 365MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 366PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H 367MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 368 369 370WATCHES AND WARNINGS 371-------------------- 372CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 373 374The Government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the 375Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands. 376 377SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 378 379A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 380* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. 381* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border 382including the Bay Islands. 383 384A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... 385* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. 386 387For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 388issued by your national meteorological service. 389 390 391DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 392------------------------------ 393At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 394located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 81.5 West. Earl is 395moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general 396motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On this track, 397the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay 398Islands Wednesday afternoon and then be very near the Belize 399coast early Thursday. 400 401Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 402Some strengthening is forecast, and Earl could be near hurricane 403strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. 404 405Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) 406to the north of the center. 407 408The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). 409 410 411HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 412---------------------- 413WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 414coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations 415difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the 416warning area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane 417conditions could begin in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane 418watch area Wednesday night or early Thursday. 419 420RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches 421of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches 422are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 423Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts 424of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in 425life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 426 427STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 428to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 429Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the 430center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied 431by large and damaging waves. 432 433 434NEXT ADVISORY 435------------- 436Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. 437Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. 438 439$$ 440Forecaster Avila 441 442 443 444------------=_1470170073-6220-81 445Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 446Content-Disposition: inline 447Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 448 449= = = == = = 450WTNT35 KNHC 022356 451TCPAT5 452 453BULLETIN 454TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A 455NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 456800 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 457 458...EARL STRENGTHENING... 459 460 461SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 462---------------------------------------------- 463LOCATION...16.4N 82.3W 464ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF BELIZE CITY 465MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H 466PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H 467MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.59 INCHES 468 469 470WATCHES AND WARNINGS 471-------------------- 472CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 473 474None. 475 476SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 477 478A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 479* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. 480* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border 481including the Bay Islands. 482 483A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... 484* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. 485 486For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 487products issued by your national meteorological service. 488 489 490DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 491------------------------------ 492At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 493located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 82.3 West. Earl is 494moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general 495motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On this track, 496the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay 497Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then be very near the Belize 498coast early Thursday. 499 500Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with 501higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Earl could be 502near hurricane strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan 503peninsula. 504 505Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) 506to the north of the center. 507 508The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter 509aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches). 510 511 512HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 513---------------------- 514WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 515coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations 516difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the 517warning area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane 518conditions could begin in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane 519watch area Wednesday night or early Thursday. 520 521RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches 522of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 523inches are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, 524and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum 525amounts of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result 526in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 527 528STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 529to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 530Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the 531center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be 532accompanied by large and damaging waves. 533 534 535NEXT ADVISORY 536------------- 537Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. 538 539$$ 540Forecaster Pasch 541 542 543 544------------=_1470182198-6220-149 545Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 546Content-Disposition: inline 547Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 548 549= = = == = = 550WTNT35 KNHC 030255 551TCPAT5 552 553BULLETIN 554TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 555NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 5561100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 557 558...EARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... 559...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE 560YUCATAN PENINSULA... 561 562 563SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 564----------------------------------------------- 565LOCATION...16.4N 83.0W 566ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY 567MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H 568PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H 569MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES 570 571 572WATCHES AND WARNINGS 573-------------------- 574CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 575 576The government of Belize has changed the Tropical Storm Warning and 577Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning from Belize City southward 578to the Belize/Guatemala border. The government of Mexico has 579changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch to a 580Hurricane Warning north of Belize City to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. 581 582SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 583 584A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 585*Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 586border. 587 588A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 589* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border 590including the Bay Islands of Honduras. 591* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 592 593For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 594products issued by your national meteorological service. 595 596 597DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 598------------------------------ 599At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 600located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Earl is 601moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion 602with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 603hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass 604just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then 605be very near the Belize coast early Thursday. 606 607Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 608Strengthening is forecast, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane 609before it makes landfall. 610 611Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) 612from the center. 613 614The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). 615 616 617HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 618---------------------- 619WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 620coast of Honduras by late tonight or early Wednesday, making outside 621preparations difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico within 622the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by Wednesday night or 623early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in 624portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico 625Wednesday night or early Thursday. 626 627RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 628to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 629Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts 630of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in 631life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 632 633STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 634to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 635Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the 636center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be 637accompanied by large and damaging waves. 638 639 640NEXT ADVISORY 641------------- 642Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. 643Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. 644 645$$ 646Forecaster Pasch 647 648 649 650------------=_1470192954-6220-222 651Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 652Content-Disposition: inline 653Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 654 655= = = == = = 656WTNT35 KNHC 030547 657TCPAT5 658 659BULLETIN 660TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A 661NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 662200 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 663 664...CENTER OF EARL REFORMS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... 665 666 667SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 668---------------------------------------------- 669LOCATION...16.0N 83.1W 670ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS 671ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE 672MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H 673PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H 674MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES 675 676 677WATCHES AND WARNINGS 678-------------------- 679CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 680 681None. 682 683SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 684 685A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 686*Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 687border. 688 689A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 690* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border 691including the Bay Islands of Honduras. 692* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 693 694A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 695somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 696hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 697completion. 698 699For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 700products issued by your national meteorological service. 701 702 703DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 704------------------------------ 705At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 706located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 83.1 West. Satellite 707data indicates that the center of Earl has reformed to the south of 708the previous advisory position. The storm is expected to resume a 709motion toward the west near 14 mph (23 km/h) during the next few 710hours, and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed 711is subsequently expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast 712track, the core of Earl is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay 713Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then be very near the Belize coast 714early Thursday. 715 716Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 717Strengthening is forecast, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane 718before it makes landfall. 719 720Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) 721from the center. 722 723The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). 724 725 726HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 727---------------------- 728WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 729coast of Honduras this morning, making outside preparations 730difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico within the hurricane 731and tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Thursday. 732Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the 733hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight or early 734Thursday. 735 736RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 737to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 738Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts 739of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in 740life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 741 742STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 743to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 744Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the 745center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be 746accompanied by large and damaging waves. 747 748 749NEXT ADVISORY 750------------- 751Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. 752 753$$ 754Forecaster Beven 755 756 757 758------------=_1470203288-6220-268 759Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 760Content-Disposition: inline 761Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 762 763= = = == = = 764WTNT35 KNHC 030848 765TCPAT5 766 767BULLETIN 768TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 769NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 770500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 771 772...EARL RESUMES A WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS AND 773BELIZE... 774 775 776SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 777---------------------------------------------- 778LOCATION...16.1N 83.7W 779ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS 780ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE 781MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H 782PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H 783MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES 784 785 786WATCHES AND WARNINGS 787-------------------- 788CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 789 790None. 791 792SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 793 794A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 795*Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 796border. 797 798A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 799* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border 800including the Bay Islands of Honduras. 801* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 802 803A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 804somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 805hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 806completion. 807 808A Hurricane Watch or Hurricane Warning may be required for the Bay 809Islands of Honduras later this morning. 810 811For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 812products issued by your national meteorological service. 813 814 815DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 816------------------------------ 817At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 818located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 83.7 West. Earl is 819now moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general 820motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed 821during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl 822is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, 823and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. 824 825Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 826with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the 827next 24 hours, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane before it 828makes landfall. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl 829moves inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute 830to investigate Earl. 831 832Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) 833from the center. 834 835The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). 836 837 838HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 839---------------------- 840WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 841coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, this morning, making 842outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will 843reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm 844warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are 845expected to begin in portions of the hurricane warning area in 846Belize and Mexico tonight or early Thursday. 847 848RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 849to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 850Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy 851rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between 852Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 85316 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could 854result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 855 856STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 857to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the 858Honduras Bay Islands, Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula 859near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the 860coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. 861 862 863NEXT ADVISORY 864------------- 865Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. 866Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. 867 868$$ 869Forecaster Beven 870 871 872 873------------=_1470214145-6220-302 874Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 875Content-Disposition: inline 876Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 877 878= = = == = = 879WTNT35 KNHC 031136 880TCPAT5 881 882BULLETIN 883TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A 884NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 885800 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 886 887...EARL ALMOST A HURRICANE... 888...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... 889 890 891SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 892---------------------------------------------- 893LOCATION...16.3N 84.4W 894ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS 895ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE 896MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H 897PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H 898MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES 899 900 901WATCHES AND WARNINGS 902-------------------- 903CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 904 905The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the 906Bay Islands. 907 908SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 909 910A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 911* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 912border. 913* Bay Islands, Honduras. 914 915A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 916* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the 917Honduras/Guatemala border. 918* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 919 920A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 921somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 922hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 923completion. 924 925For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 926issued by your national meteorological service. 927 928 929DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 930------------------------------ 931At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 932located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 84.4 West. Earl is 933moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general 934motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed 935during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl 936is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, 937and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. 938 939Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 940with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the 941next 24 hours, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane later 942today. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland. 943A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Earl. 944 945Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) 946from the center. 947 948The minimum central pressure recently estimated by a NOAA Hurricane 949Hurricane aircraft was 989 mb (29.20 inches). 950 951 952HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 953---------------------- 954WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 955coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, this morning, making 956outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will 957reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm 958warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are 959expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and 960in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico 961tonight or early Thursday. 962 963RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 964to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 965Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy 966rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between 967Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 96816 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could 969result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 970 971STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 972to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the 973Honduras Bay Islands, Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula 974near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the 975coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. 976 977 978NEXT ADVISORY 979------------- 980Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. 981 982$$ 983Forecaster Avila 984 985 986 987------------=_1470224200-6220-345 988Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 989Content-Disposition: inline 990Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 991 992= = = == = = 993WTNT35 KNHC 031155 994TCPAT5 995 996BULLETIN 997TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A...CORRECTED 998NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 999800 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 1000 1001CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY IN SUMMARY TABLE 1002 1003...EARL ALMOST A HURRICANE... 1004...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... 1005 1006 1007SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 1008---------------------------------------------- 1009LOCATION...16.3N 84.4W 1010ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS 1011ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE 1012MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H 1013PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H 1014MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES 1015 1016 1017WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1018-------------------- 1019CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1020 1021The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the 1022Bay Islands. 1023 1024SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1025 1026A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 1027* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 1028border. 1029* Bay Islands, Honduras. 1030 1031A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1032* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the 1033Honduras/Guatemala border. 1034* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 1035 1036A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 1037somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 1038hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 1039completion. 1040 1041For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 1042issued by your national meteorological service. 1043 1044 1045DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1046------------------------------ 1047At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 1048located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 84.4 West. Earl is 1049moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general 1050motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed 1051during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl 1052is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, 1053and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. 1054 1055Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 1056with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the 1057next 24 hours, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane later 1058today. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland. 1059A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Earl. 1060 1061Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) 1062from the center. 1063 1064The minimum central pressure recently estimated by a NOAA Hurricane 1065Hurricane aircraft was 989 mb (29.20 inches). 1066 1067 1068HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1069---------------------- 1070WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 1071coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, this morning, making 1072outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will 1073reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm 1074warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are 1075expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and 1076in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico 1077tonight or early Thursday. 1078 1079RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 1080to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 1081Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy 1082rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between 1083Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 108416 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could 1085result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 1086 1087STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 1088to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the 1089Honduras Bay Islands, Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula 1090near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the 1091coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. 1092 1093 1094NEXT ADVISORY 1095------------- 1096Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. 1097 1098$$ 1099Forecaster Avila 1100 1101 1102 1103------------=_1470225313-6220-350 1104Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1105Content-Disposition: inline 1106Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1107 1108= = = == = = 1109WTNT35 KNHC 031452 1110TCPAT5 1111 1112BULLETIN 1113TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 1114NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 11151100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 1116 1117...EARL NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE VERY SOON... 1118 1119 1120SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 1121----------------------------------------------- 1122LOCATION...16.5N 84.8W 1123ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS 1124ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY 1125MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H 1126PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H 1127MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES 1128 1129 1130WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1131-------------------- 1132CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1133 1134None. 1135 1136SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1137 1138A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 1139* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 1140border. 1141* Bay Islands, Honduras. 1142 1143A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1144* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the 1145Honduras/Guatemala border. 1146* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 1147 1148For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 1149products issued by your national meteorological service. 1150 1151 1152DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1153------------------------------ 1154At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 1155located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 84.8 West. Earl is 1156moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general 1157motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed 1158during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl 1159is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, 1160and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. 1161 1162Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 1163gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is currently investigating 1164Earl and will determine if the cyclone has reached hurricane 1165intensity. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 1166hours or so, and Earl is expected to be a little stronger by the 1167time it reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of 1168Earl moves inland. 1169 1170Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) 1171to the north and east of the center. 1172 1173The estimated minimum central pressure from an Air Force Hurricane 1174Hunter plane was 989 mb (29.21 inches). 1175 1176 1177HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1178---------------------- 1179WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably already occuring along 1180the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making 1181outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will 1182reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm 1183warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are 1184expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and 1185in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico 1186tonight or early Thursday. 1187 1188RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 1189to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 1190Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy 1191rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between 1192Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 119316 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could 1194result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 1195 1196STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 1197to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 1198Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of 1199where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water 1200levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas 1201of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the 1202surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. 1203 1204 1205NEXT ADVISORY 1206------------- 1207Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. 1208Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. 1209 1210$$ 1211Forecaster Avila 1212 1213 1214 1215------------=_1470235930-6220-392 1216Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1217Content-Disposition: inline 1218Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1219 1220= = = == = = 1221WTNT35 KNHC 031731 1222TCPAT5 1223 1224BULLETIN 1225TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A 1226NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1227100 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 1228 1229...EARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN BELIZE... 1230 1231 1232SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 1233---------------------------------------------- 1234LOCATION...16.8N 85.6W 1235ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS 1236ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY 1237MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H 1238PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H 1239MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES 1240 1241 1242WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1243-------------------- 1244CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1245 1246None. 1247 1248SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1249 1250A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 1251* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 1252border. 1253* Bay Islands, Honduras. 1254 1255A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1256* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the 1257Honduras/Guatemala border. 1258* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 1259 1260For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 1261products issued by your national meteorological service. 1262 1263 1264DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1265------------------------------ 1266At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 1267located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Earl is 1268moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general 1269motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed 1270during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl 1271is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, 1272and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. 1273 1274Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 1275gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane currently investigating 1276Earl has not measured winds of hurricane force. However, additional 1277strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, and Earl 1278is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches Belize. 1279Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland. 1280 1281Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) 1282mainly to the north and east of the center. 1283 1284The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force Hurricane 1285Hunter plane was 990 mb (29.23 inches). 1286 1287 1288HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1289---------------------- 1290WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably already occurring 1291along the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making 1292outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will 1293reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm 1294warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are 1295expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and 1296in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico 1297tonight or early Thursday. 1298 1299RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 1300to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 1301Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy 1302rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between 1303Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 130416 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could 1305result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 1306 1307STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 1308to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 1309Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of 1310where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water 1311levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas 1312of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the 1313surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. 1314 1315 1316NEXT ADVISORY 1317------------- 1318Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. 1319 1320$$ 1321Forecaster Avila 1322 1323 1324 1325------------=_1470245469-6220-440 1326Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1327Content-Disposition: inline 1328Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1329 1330= = = == = = 1331WTNT35 KNHC 032031 1332TCPAT5 1333 1334BULLETIN 1335TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 1336NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1337400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 1338 1339...LARGE EARL HEADING FOR BELIZE... 1340...ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING... 1341 1342SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 1343---------------------------------------------- 1344LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W 1345ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS 1346ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY 1347MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H 1348PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H 1349MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES 1350 1351 1352WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1353-------------------- 1354CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1355 1356None. 1357 1358SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1359 1360A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 1361* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 1362border. 1363* Bay Islands, Honduras. 1364 1365A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1366* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the 1367Honduras/Guatemala border. 1368* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 1369 1370For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 1371products issued by your national meteorological service. 1372 1373 1374DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1375------------------------------ 1376At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 1377located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Earl is 1378moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general 1379motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed 1380during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl 1381will continue to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands during the 1382next few hours, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early 1383Thursday. 1384 1385Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 1386gusts, however, Earl is expected to be a hurricane by the time it 1387reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl 1388moves inland. 1389 1390Earl has become a large cyclone, and tropical-storm-force winds 1391extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the northeast 1392of the center. 1393 1394The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). 1395 1396 1397HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1398---------------------- 1399WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably occurring along the 1400north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands. These conditions 1401will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm 1402warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are 1403expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras during the next several 1404hours, and in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and 1405Mexico tonight or early Thursday. 1406 1407RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 1408to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 1409Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy 1410rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between 1411Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 141216 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could 1413result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 1414 1415STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 1416to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 1417Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of 1418where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water 1419levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas 1420of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the 1421surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. 1422 1423 1424NEXT ADVISORY 1425------------- 1426Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. 1427Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. 1428 1429$$ 1430Forecaster Avila 1431 1432 1433 1434------------=_1470256273-6220-505 1435Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1436Content-Disposition: inline 1437Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1438 1439= = = == = = 1440WTNT35 KNHC 032347 1441TCPAT5 1442 1443BULLETIN 1444HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A 1445NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1446700 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 1447 1448...RAIN BANDS OF EARL SPREADING OVER BELIZE... 1449 1450 1451SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 1452---------------------------------------------- 1453LOCATION...17.3N 86.9W 1454ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY 1455MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H 1456PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H 1457MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES 1458 1459 1460WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1461-------------------- 1462CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1463 1464None. 1465 1466SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1467 1468A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 1469* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 1470border. 1471* Bay Islands, Honduras. 1472 1473A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1474* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the 1475Honduras/Guatemala border. 1476* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 1477 1478For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 1479products issued by your national meteorological service. 1480 1481 1482DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1483------------------------------ 1484At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located 1485near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.9 West. Earl is moving 1486toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is 1487expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the 1488next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will make 1489landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. 1490 1491Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher 1492gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before Earl reaches 1493Belize tonight. Weakening will begin after the center of Earl 1494moves inland. 1495 1496Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 1497primarily to the northeast of the center. 1498 1499The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). 1500 1501 1502HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1503---------------------- 1504WIND: Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within 1505the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a few hours. 1506Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane 1507warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight. 1508 1509RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 1510to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the 1511Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy 1512rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between 1513Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 151416 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could 1515result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 1516 1517STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 1518to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 1519Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of 1520where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water 1521levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas 1522of onshore winds on the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, 1523the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. 1524 1525 1526NEXT ADVISORY 1527------------- 1528Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. 1529 1530$$ 1531Forecaster Pasch 1532 1533 1534 1535------------=_1470268069-55003-54 1536Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1537Content-Disposition: inline 1538Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1539 1540= = = == = = 1541WTNT35 KNHC 040252 1542TCPAT5 1543 1544BULLETIN 1545HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 1546NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 15471000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 1548 1549...EARL NEARING THE COAST OF BELIZE... 1550 1551 1552SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 1553----------------------------------------------- 1554LOCATION...17.4N 87.6W 1555ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BELIZE CITY 1556MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H 1557PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H 1558MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES 1559 1560 1561WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1562-------------------- 1563CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1564 1565The government of Honduras has discontinued all warnings for the 1566coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. 1567 1568SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1569 1570A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 1571* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 1572border. 1573 1574A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1575* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 1576 1577For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 1578products issued by your national meteorological service. 1579 1580 1581DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1582------------------------------ 1583At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Earl was located 1584by an an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4 1585North, longitude 87.6 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 15 1586mph (24 km/h), and a westward or slightly north of westward motion 1587with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 1588hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will move inland 1589over Belize within the next few hours, and move over the southern 1590Yucatan peninsula of Mexico or northern Guatemala on Thursday. 1591 1592Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher 1593gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall, and 1594Earl will begin to weaken after it moves inland over Belize on 1595Thursday. 1596 1597Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the 1598center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles 1599(220 km). 1600 1601The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). 1602 1603 1604HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1605---------------------- 1606WIND: Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within 1607the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a couple of hours. 1608Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane 1609warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight. 1610 1611RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 1612of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and 1613the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy 1614rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz 1615between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum 1616amounts of 18 inches are possible in Mexico and Belize. These rains 1617could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 1618 1619STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 1620to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 1621Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of 1622where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be 1623accompanied by large and damaging waves. 1624 1625 1626NEXT ADVISORY 1627------------- 1628Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. 1629Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. 1630 1631$$ 1632Forecaster Pasch 1633 1634 1635 1636------------=_1470279159-55003-145 1637Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1638Content-Disposition: inline 1639Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1640 1641= = = == = = 1642WTNT35 KNHC 040556 1643TCPAT5 1644 1645BULLETIN 1646HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A 1647NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1648100 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 1649 1650...CENTER OF EARL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BELIZE CITY... 1651 1652 1653SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 1654---------------------------------------------- 1655LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W 1656ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE 1657MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H 1658PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H 1659MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES 1660 1661 1662WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1663-------------------- 1664CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1665 1666None. 1667 1668SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1669 1670A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 1671* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 1672border. 1673 1674A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1675* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 1676 1677For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 1678products issued by your national meteorological service. 1679 1680 1681DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1682------------------------------ 1683At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Earl was located 1684by the radar in Belize City near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 88.3 1685West. Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (23 km/h), and a 1686westward or slightly north of westward motion with some decrease in 1687forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast 1688track, the center of Earl will move across central or northern 1689Belize during the next several hours, and move over the southern 1690Yucatan peninsula of Mexico or northern Guatemala later on Thursday. 1691 1692Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 1693gusts. Earl will begin to weaken as it moves farther inland over 1694Belize. 1695 1696Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the 1697center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles 1698(220 km). 1699 1700The estimated minimum central pressure based on the latest Air 1701Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 979 mb (28.91 1702inches). A storm chaser in Belize City reported a pressure of 982 1703mb (29.00 inches). 1704 1705 1706HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1707---------------------- 1708WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore of the coast of 1709Belize near and north of Belize City and should spread inland 1710during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are 1711spreading across the coasts of Belize and Mexico elsewhere in the 1712warned area. 1713 1714RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 1715of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and 1716the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy 1717rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz 1718between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum 1719amounts of 18 inches are possible in Mexico and Belize. These rains 1720could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 1721 1722STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 1723to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of 1724Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of 1725where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be 1726accompanied by large and damaging waves. 1727 1728 1729NEXT ADVISORY 1730------------- 1731Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. 1732 1733$$ 1734Forecaster Beven 1735 1736 1737 1738------------=_1470290174-55003-219 1739Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1740Content-Disposition: inline 1741Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1742 1743= = = == = = 1744WTNT35 KNHC 040853 1745TCPAT5 1746 1747BULLETIN 1748HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 1749NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1750400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 1751 1752...EARL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE... 1753 1754 1755SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 1756---------------------------------------------- 1757LOCATION...17.3N 88.9W 1758ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF BELIZE CITY 1759MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H 1760PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H 1761MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES 1762 1763 1764WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1765-------------------- 1766CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1767 1768None. 1769 1770SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1771 1772A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... 1773* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala 1774border. 1775 1776A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1777* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. 1778 1779Interests along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche should 1780monitor the progress of Earl. 1781 1782For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 1783products issued by your national meteorological service. 1784 1785 1786DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1787------------------------------ 1788At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located 1789near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 88.9 West. A turn toward the 1790west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later 1791today. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to 1792move across central and northern Belize this morning, move across 1793northern Guatemala and the southern Yucatan Peninsula later today, 1794and be near or over the southern Bay of Campeche Friday night. 1795 1796Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 1797with higher gusts, and additional weakening is expected as the 1798center moves farther inland. Earl is forecast to weaken to a 1799tropical storm later this morning and to a tropical depression by 1800Friday morning. 1801 1802Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the 1803center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles 1804(220 km). 1805 1806The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). 1807 1808 1809HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1810---------------------- 1811WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading through central and 1812northern Belize near the center of Earl. Tropical storm conditions 1813are spreading across the coasts of Belize and Mexico elsewhere in 1814the warned area, and should spread into the southern Yucatan 1815Peninsula and northern Guatemala this morning. 1816 1817RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 1818of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the 1819Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana, Tabasco and Veracruz 1820through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are 1821possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the 1822Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in 1823life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 1824 1825STORM SURGE: A storm surge along the immediate coast of Belize and 1826the eastern Yucatan Peninsula should subside today as the center of 1827Earl moves farther inland. Near the coast, the surge will be 1828accompanied by large and damaging waves. 1829 1830 1831NEXT ADVISORY 1832------------- 1833Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. 1834Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. 1835 1836$$ 1837Forecaster Beven 1838 1839 1840 1841------------=_1470300829-55003-257 1842Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1843Content-Disposition: inline 1844Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1845 1846= = = == = = 1847WTNT35 KNHC 041145 1848TCPAT5 1849 1850BULLETIN 1851TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A 1852NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1853700 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 1854 1855...EARL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... 1856 1857 1858SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 1859---------------------------------------------- 1860LOCATION...17.3N 89.5W 1861ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF BELIZE CITY 1862MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H 1863PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H 1864MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES 1865 1866 1867WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1868-------------------- 1869CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1870 1871The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings. The 1872Government of Belize has replaced the Hurricane Warning with 1873a Tropical Storm Warning. 1874 1875SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1876 1877A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1878* the coast of Belize. 1879 1880Interests along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche should 1881monitor the progress of Earl. 1882 1883For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 1884products issued by your national meteorological service. 1885 1886 1887DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1888------------------------------ 1889At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 1890located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. Earl is 1891moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the 1892west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later 1893today. On the forecast track, Earl is expected to move across 1894northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico today, and be near or 1895over the southern Bay of Campeche Friday night. 1896 1897Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) 1898with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center 1899moves farther inland, and Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical 1900depression by tonight or Friday morning. 1901 1902Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 1903to the east of the center. 1904 1905The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). 1906 1907 1908HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1909---------------------- 1910WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still affecting the coast of 1911Belize, but should gradually subside. These conditions should spread 1912over northern Guatemala this morning. 1913 1914RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 1915of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the 1916Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and 1917Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 1918inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central 1919part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in 1920life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 1921 1922STORM SURGE: A storm surge along the immediate coast of Belize and 1923the eastern Yucatan Peninsula should continue to subside today as 1924the center of Earl moves farther inland. 1925 1926 1927NEXT ADVISORY 1928------------- 1929Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. 1930 1931$$ 1932Forecaster Avila 1933 1934 1935 1936------------=_1470311162-55003-300 1937Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1938Content-Disposition: inline 1939Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1940 1941= = = == = = 1942WTNT35 KNHC 041435 1943TCPAT5 1944 1945BULLETIN 1946TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 1947NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 19481000 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 1949 1950...EARL RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN 1951GUATEMALA... 1952 1953 1954SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 1955----------------------------------------------- 1956LOCATION...17.2N 89.9W 1957ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF BELIZE CITY 1958MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 1959PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H 1960MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES 1961 1962 1963WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1964-------------------- 1965CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1966 1967The Government of Belize has discontinued all coastal warnings. 1968 1969SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1970 1971There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. 1972 1973Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the 1974progress of Earl. 1975 1976For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 1977products issued by your national meteorological service. 1978 1979 1980DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1981------------------------------ 1982At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 1983located well inland near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 89.9 West. 1984Earl is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this 1985general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of 1986days. On the forecast track, Earl will continue to move across 1987northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico tonight and Friday. 1988 1989Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 1990with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center 1991moves over high terrain, and Earl is forecast to weaken to a 1992tropical depression by tonight. 1993 1994Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) 1995to the east of the center. 1996 1997The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). 1998 1999 2000HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2001---------------------- 2002WIND: Tropical storm conditions within a small area near the center 2003should spread westward over northern Guatemala and southeastern 2004Mexico today. 2005 2006RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2007of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the 2008Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and 2009Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 2010inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central 2011part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in 2012life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2013 2014NEXT ADVISORY 2015------------- 2016Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. 2017 2018$$ 2019Forecaster Avila 2020 2021 2022 2023------------=_1470321345-55003-365 2024Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2025Content-Disposition: inline 2026Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2027 2028= = = == = = 2029WTNT35 KNHC 041754 2030TCPAT5 2031 2032BULLETIN 2033TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A 2034NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2035100 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 2036 2037...EARL BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA 2038AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... 2039 2040 2041SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 2042---------------------------------------------- 2043LOCATION...17.3N 90.2W 2044ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF FLORES GUATEMALA 2045ABOUT 140 MI...255 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO 2046MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 2047PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H 2048MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES 2049 2050 2051WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2052-------------------- 2053CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2054 2055None 2056 2057SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2058 2059There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. 2060 2061Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the 2062progress of Earl. 2063 2064For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 2065issued by your national meteorological service. 2066 2067 2068DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2069------------------------------ 2070At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2071located inland over northern Guatemala near latitude 17.3 North, 2072longitude 90.2 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 2073km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the 2074next couple of days. On the forecast track, Earl will continue to 2075move across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico tonight and 2076Friday. 2077 2078Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 2079with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center 2080moves over high terrain, and Earl is forecast to weaken to a 2081tropical depression by tonight. 2082 2083Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) 2084from the center. 2085 2086The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). 2087 2088 2089HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2090---------------------- 2091WIND: Tropical storm conditions over a small area near the center 2092should continue to spread westward over northern Guatemala and 2093southeastern Mexico this afternoon. 2094 2095RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2096of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the 2097Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and 2098Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 2099inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central 2100part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in 2101life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2102 2103 2104NEXT ADVISORY 2105------------- 2106Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. 2107 2108$$ 2109Forecaster Brennan 2110 2111 2112 2113------------=_1470333255-55003-439 2114Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2115Content-Disposition: inline 2116Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2117 2118= = = == = = 2119WTNT35 KNHC 042031 2120TCPAT5 2121 2122BULLETIN 2123TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 2124NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2125400 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 2126 2127...EARL STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS IT WEAKENS... 2128 2129 2130SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 2131---------------------------------------------- 2132LOCATION...17.6N 90.8W 2133ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO 2134ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO 2135MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2136PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 2137MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 2138 2139 2140WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2141-------------------- 2142CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2143 2144None 2145 2146SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2147 2148There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. 2149 2150Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the 2151progress of Earl. 2152 2153For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 2154issued by your national meteorological service. 2155 2156 2157DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2158------------------------------ 2159At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2160located inland over northwestern Guatemala near latitude 17.6 North, 2161longitude 90.8 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 2162km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A 2163turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the 2164forecast track, the center of Earl will continue move into 2165southeastern Mexico tonight, and move near the coast along the 2166extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. 2167 2168Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 2169higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Earl is 2170expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight. 2171 2172Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) 2173from the center. 2174 2175The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). 2176 2177 2178HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2179---------------------- 2180WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue for the next few 2181hours in a small area near the center as it moves through portions 2182of northwestern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. 2183 2184RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2185of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the 2186Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and 2187Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 2188inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central 2189part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in 2190life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 2191 2192 2193NEXT ADVISORY 2194------------- 2195Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. 2196Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. 2197 2198$$ 2199Forecaster Brennan 2200 2201 2202 2203------------=_1470342709-55003-485 2204Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2205Content-Disposition: inline 2206Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2207 2208= = = == = = 2209WTNT35 KNHC 042357 2210TCPAT5 2211 2212BULLETIN 2213TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A 2214NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2215700 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 2216 2217...EARL CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHILE MOVING 2218OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... 2219 2220 2221SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 2222---------------------------------------------- 2223LOCATION...18.0N 91.2W 2224ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO 2225ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO 2226MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2227PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 2228MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 2229 2230 2231WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2232-------------------- 2233CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2234 2235None 2236 2237SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2238 2239There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. 2240 2241Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the 2242progress of Earl. 2243 2244For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 2245products issued by your national meteorological service. 2246 2247 2248DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2249------------------------------ 2250At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2251located inland over southeastern Mexico near latitude 18.0 North, 2252longitude 91.2 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 2253km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A 2254turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the 2255forecast track, the center of Earl will continue to move into 2256southeastern Mexico tonight, and move near the coast along the 2257extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. 2258 2259Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 2260gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Earl is expected to become a 2261tropical depression tonight. 2262 2263Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) 2264from the center. Ciudad del Carmen recently reported sustained 2265winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). 2266 2267The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). 2268 2269 2270HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2271---------------------- 2272WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue for the next few 2273hours in a small area near and north of the center as it moves 2274through portions of southeastern Mexico. 2275 2276RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2277of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the 2278Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and 2279Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 2280inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central 2281part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in 2282life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 2283 2284 2285NEXT ADVISORY 2286------------- 2287Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. 2288 2289$$ 2290Forecaster Pasch 2291 2292 2293 2294------------=_1470355070-55003-594 2295Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2296Content-Disposition: inline 2297Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2298 2299= = = == = = 2300WTNT35 KNHC 050245 2301TCPAT5 2302 2303BULLETIN 2304TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 2305NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 23061000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 2307 2308...EARL MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... 2309...WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE COAST... 2310 2311 2312SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 2313----------------------------------------------- 2314LOCATION...18.1N 91.7W 2315ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM SSE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO 2316ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO 2317MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2318PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 2319MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 2320 2321 2322WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2323-------------------- 2324CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2325 2326The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for 2327the southern Gulf coast of Mexico from Ciudad del Carmen westward 2328to Laguna Verde. 2329 2330SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2331 2332A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2333* Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde Mexico. 2334 2335Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the 2336progress of Earl. 2337 2338For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 2339products issued by your national meteorological service. 2340 2341 2342DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2343------------------------------ 2344At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2345located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 91.7 West. Earl is 2346moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a 2347west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next day 2348or two. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving 2349near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. 2350 2351Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 2352Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Weakening 2353is expected on Saturday. 2354 2355Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) 2356from the center. 2357 2358The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). 2359 2360 2361HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2362---------------------- 2363WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the 2364warning area on Friday. 2365 2366RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2367of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Guatemala and the Mexican states 2368of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana, Tabasco and Veracruz into Saturday 2369morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in 2370northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of 2371Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods 2372and mud slides. 2373 2374 2375NEXT ADVISORY 2376------------- 2377Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. 2378Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. 2379 2380$$ 2381Forecaster Pasch 2382 2383 2384 2385------------=_1470365151-55003-691 2386Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2387Content-Disposition: inline 2388Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2389 2390= = = == = = 2391WTNT35 KNHC 050547 2392TCPAT5 2393 2394BULLETIN 2395TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A 2396NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2397100 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 2398 2399...CENTER OF EARL APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... 2400 2401 2402SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 2403---------------------------------------------- 2404LOCATION...18.3N 92.3W 2405ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM SW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO 2406ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO 2407MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2408PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 2409MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 2410 2411 2412WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2413-------------------- 2414CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2415 2416None. 2417 2418SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2419 2420A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2421* Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde Mexico. 2422 2423Interests elsewhere along the southern Bay of Campeche should 2424monitor the progress of Earl. 2425 2426For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 2427products issued by your national meteorological service. 2428 2429 2430DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2431------------------------------ 2432At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2433located by the Mexican radar at Sabacuy near latitude 18.3 North, 2434longitude 92.3 West. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 243510 mph (17 km/h) and a west-northwestward to westward motion is 2436expected for the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center 2437of Earl will be moving near the coast along the extreme southern Bay 2438of Campeche today and tonight, then moving into the southeastern 2439mainland of Mexico on Saturday. 2440 2441Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 2442Little change in strength is forecast through tonight, with 2443weakening expected on Saturday. 2444 2445Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) 2446from the center. 2447 2448The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). 2449 2450 2451HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2452---------------------- 2453WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the 2454warning area today. 2455 2456RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2457of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Guatemala and the Mexican states 2458of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana, Tabasco and Veracruz into Saturday 2459morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in 2460northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of 2461Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods 2462and mud slides. 2463 2464 2465NEXT ADVISORY 2466------------- 2467Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. 2468 2469$$ 2470Forecaster Beven 2471 2472 2473 2474------------=_1470376071-55003-756 2475Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2476Content-Disposition: inline 2477Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2478 2479= = = == = = 2480WTNT35 KNHC 050836 2481TCPAT5 2482 2483BULLETIN 2484TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 2485NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2486400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 2487 2488...CENTER OF EARL NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF 2489CAMPECHE... 2490 2491 2492SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 2493---------------------------------------------- 2494LOCATION...18.4N 92.8W 2495ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO 2496ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO 2497MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2498PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H 2499MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 2500 2501 2502WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2503-------------------- 2504CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2505 2506None. 2507 2508SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2509 2510A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2511* Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde Mexico. 2512 2513Interests elsewhere along the southern Bay of Campeche should 2514monitor the progress of Earl. 2515 2516For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 2517products issued by your national meteorological service. 2518 2519 2520DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2521------------------------------ 2522At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2523located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 92.8 West. Earl is 2524moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn 2525toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are expected later 2526today. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving 2527near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche today and 2528tonight, then moving into the southeastern mainland of Mexico on 2529Saturday. 2530 2531Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 2532Little change in strength is likely today or tonight, with 2533weakening expected on Saturday when Earl moves into mainland Mexico. 2534 2535Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) 2536from the center. 2537 2538The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). 2539 2540 2541HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2542---------------------- 2543WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the 2544warning area today and tonight. 2545 2546RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2547of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, 2548Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with 2549possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could 2550result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2551 2552 2553NEXT ADVISORY 2554------------- 2555Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. 2556Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. 2557 2558$$ 2559Forecaster Beven 2560 2561 2562 2563------------=_1470386222-55003-788 2564Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2565Content-Disposition: inline 2566Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2567 2568= = = == = = 2569WTNT35 KNHC 051137 2570TCPAT5 2571 2572BULLETIN 2573TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A 2574NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2575700 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 2576 2577...EARL HUGGING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... 2578 2579 2580SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 2581---------------------------------------------- 2582LOCATION...18.5N 93.5W 2583ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 2584ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO 2585MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2586PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H 2587MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES 2588 2589 2590WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2591-------------------- 2592CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2593 2594None. 2595 2596SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2597 2598A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2599* Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde, Mexico. 2600 2601For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 2602issued by your national meteorological service. 2603 2604 2605DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2606------------------------------ 2607At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2608estimated near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 93.5 West. Earl is 2609moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn 2610toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are expected later 2611today. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving 2612near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche today and 2613tonight. Earl will then move into southeastern mainland Mexico 2614on Saturday. 2615 2616Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 2617gusts. Little change in strength is likely today or tonight, with 2618weakening expected on Saturday when Earl moves into mainland Mexico. 2619 2620Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) 2621to the north and east of the center. 2622 2623The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). 2624 2625 2626HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2627---------------------- 2628WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the 2629warning area today and tonight. 2630 2631RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2632of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, 2633Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with 2634possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could 2635result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2636 2637 2638NEXT ADVISORY 2639------------- 2640Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. 2641 2642$$ 2643Forecaster Avila 2644 2645 2646 2647------------=_1470397046-55003-824 2648Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2649Content-Disposition: inline 2650Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2651 2652= = = == = = 2653WTNT35 KNHC 051431 2654TCPAT5 2655 2656BULLETIN 2657TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 2658NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 26591000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 2660 2661...EARL BEATEN BY HIGH TERRAIN BUT STILL DRENCHING PORTIONS OF 2662SOUTHERN MEXICO... 2663 2664 2665SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 2666----------------------------------------------- 2667LOCATION...18.6N 94.2W 2668ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO 2669ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 2670MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2671PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 2672MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES 2673 2674 2675WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2676-------------------- 2677CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2678 2679None. 2680 2681SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2682 2683A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2684* Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde, Mexico. 2685 2686For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 2687products issued by your national meteorological service. 2688 2689 2690DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2691------------------------------ 2692At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2693located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 94.2 West. Earl is 2694moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general 2695motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the 2696forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of 2697Veracruz later today or tonight. 2698 2699Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 2700No significant change in strength is anticipated before landfall. 2701 2702Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) 2703to the north of the center. 2704 2705The estimated minimum central pressure based on a ship observation 2706is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). 2707 2708 2709HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2710---------------------- 2711WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the 2712warning area today and tonight. 2713 2714RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2715of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, 2716Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with 2717possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could 2718result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2719 2720 2721NEXT ADVISORY 2722------------- 2723Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. 2724Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. 2725 2726$$ 2727Forecaster Avila 2728 2729 2730 2731------------=_1470407491-55003-884 2732Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2733Content-Disposition: inline 2734Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2735 2736= = = == = = 2737WTNT35 KNHC 051732 2738TCPAT5 2739 2740BULLETIN 2741TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A 2742NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2743100 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 2744 2745...EARL EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO... 2746...RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... 2747 2748SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 2749---------------------------------------------- 2750LOCATION...18.6N 94.6W 2751ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO 2752ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 2753MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2754PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 2755MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES 2756 2757 2758WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2759-------------------- 2760CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2761 2762The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm 2763Warning east of Puerto Dos Bocas. 2764 2765SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2766 2767A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2768* Puerto Dos Bocas westward to Laguna Verde, Mexico. 2769 2770For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 2771products issued by your national meteorological service. 2772 2773 2774DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2775------------------------------ 2776At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2777located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. Earl is 2778moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general 2779motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the 2780forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of 2781Veracruz later today or tonight. 2782 2783Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 2784gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before 2785landfall. An Air Force plane will check Earl in a couple of hours. 2786 2787Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) 2788to the north of the center. 2789 2790The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). 2791 2792 2793HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2794---------------------- 2795WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the 2796warning area today and tonight. 2797 2798RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2799of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, 2800Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with 2801possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could 2802result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2803 2804 2805NEXT ADVISORY 2806------------- 2807Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. 2808 2809$$ 2810Forecaster Avila 2811 2812 2813 2814------------=_1470418350-55003-934 2815Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2816Content-Disposition: inline 2817Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2818 2819= = = == = = 2820WTNT35 KNHC 052037 2821TCPAT5 2822 2823BULLETIN 2824TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 2825NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2826400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 2827 2828...EARL RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... 2829...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... 2830 2831 2832SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 2833---------------------------------------------- 2834LOCATION...18.8N 95.0W 2835ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO 2836ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 2837MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H 2838PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H 2839MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES 2840 2841 2842WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2843-------------------- 2844CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2845 2846The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for 2847the coast of Mexico from Laguna Verde to Tecolutla. 2848 2849SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2850 2851A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2852* Puerto Dos Bocas westward to Tecolutla, Mexico. 2853 2854For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 2855products issued by your national meteorological service. 2856 2857 2858DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2859------------------------------ 2860At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2861located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 95.0 West. Earl is 2862moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general 2863motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the 2864forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of 2865Veracruz later tonight. 2866 2867Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft 2868indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph 2869(95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected 2870before landfall. 2871 2872Tropical-storm-force winds have expanded and now extend outward up 2873to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. 2874 2875The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). 2876 2877 2878HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2879---------------------- 2880WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the 2881warning area this afternoon and tonight. 2882 2883RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2884of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, 2885Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with 2886possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could 2887result in life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Reports 2888from the Meteorological Service of Mexico indicate that at least 28897.63 inches (194 mm) of rainfall has occurred at Yamonho Chiapas and 28905.64 inches (143 mm) has occurred at Boca del Cerro thus far. 2891 2892 2893NEXT ADVISORY 2894------------- 2895Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. 2896Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. 2897 2898$$ 2899Forecaster Stewart 2900 2901 2902 2903------------=_1470429472-55003-987 2904Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2905Content-Disposition: inline 2906Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2907 2908= = = == = = 2909WTNT35 KNHC 052349 2910TCPAT5 2911 2912BULLETIN 2913TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A 2914NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2915700 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 2916 2917...EARL APPROACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO... 2918...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... 2919 2920 2921SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 2922---------------------------------------------- 2923LOCATION...18.8N 95.6W 2924ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF ALVARADO MEXICO 2925ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 2926MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H 2927PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H 2928MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 2929 2930 2931WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2932-------------------- 2933CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2934 2935None. 2936 2937SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2938 2939A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2940* Puerto Dos Bocas westward to Tecolutla, Mexico. 2941 2942For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 2943products issued by your national meteorological service. 2944 2945 2946DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2947------------------------------ 2948At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 2949located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 95.6 West. Earl is 2950moving toward the west near 10 mph (16 km/h), and this general 2951motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the 2952forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of 2953Veracruz within the next few hours. 2954 2955Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 2956gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall. 2957After landfall occurs, rapid weakening of Earl's peak winds is 2958expected. 2959 2960Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) 2961from the center. 2962 2963The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). 2964 2965 2966HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2967---------------------- 2968WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the 2969warning area this evening and early Saturday morning. 2970 2971RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2972of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, 2973Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco, and Veracruz through Saturday morning with 2974possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could 2975result in life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2976 2977 2978NEXT ADVISORY 2979------------- 2980Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. 2981 2982$$ 2983Forecaster Stewart 2984 2985 2986 2987------------=_1470440996-55003-1073 2988Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2989Content-Disposition: inline 2990Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2991 2992= = = == = = 2993WTNT35 KNHC 060243 2994TCPAT5 2995 2996BULLETIN 2997TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 2998NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 29991000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 3000 3001...EARL MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... 3002...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... 3003 3004 3005SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 3006----------------------------------------------- 3007LOCATION...19.0N 95.9W 3008ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 3009MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H 3010PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H 3011MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES 3012 3013 3014WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3015-------------------- 3016CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 3017 3018The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning 3019east of Roca Partido. 3020 3021SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 3022 3023A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 3024* Roca Partido northward to Tecolutla, Mexico. 3025 3026For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 3027products issued by your national meteorological service. 3028 3029 3030DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3031------------------------------ 3032At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 3033located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 95.9 West. Earl is 3034moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general 3035motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the 3036forecast track, Earl will move inland between Veracruz and 3037Alvarado in the Mexican state of Veracruz within the next hour. 3038 3039Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 3040gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to begin after Earl's center 3041moves inland. 3042 3043Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), 3044mainly northwest and northeast of the center. A sustained wind of 304541 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h) were recently 3046reported in Veracruz, Mexico. 3047 3048The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). 3049 3050 3051HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3052---------------------- 3053WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread westward 3054across the warning area tonight and early Saturday morning. 3055 3056RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 30578 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches over portions 3058of the Mexican states of Veracruz, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Guerrero, 3059Puebla, Tabasco, and Campeche through Saturday night. These rains 3060could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 3061 3062 3063NEXT ADVISORY 3064------------- 3065Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. 3066Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. 3067 3068$$ 3069Forecaster Stewart 3070 3071 3072 3073------------=_1470451409-55003-1134 3074Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3075Content-Disposition: inline 3076Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3077 3078= = = == = = 3079WTNT35 KNHC 060545 3080TCPAT5 3081 3082BULLETIN 3083TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A 3084NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 3085100 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 3086 3087...EARL MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... 3088...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... 3089 3090 3091SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 3092---------------------------------------------- 3093LOCATION...19.0N 96.5W 3094ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 3095MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H 3096PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H 3097MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 3098 3099 3100WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3101-------------------- 3102CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 3103 3104None. 3105 3106SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 3107 3108A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 3109* Roca Partido northward to Tecolutla, Mexico. 3110 3111For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 3112products issued by your national meteorological service. 3113 3114 3115DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3116------------------------------ 3117At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 3118located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 96.5 West. Earl is 3119moving toward the west near 9 mph (14 km/h), and this general motion 3120is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast 3121track, Earl will continue to move inland throughout the day on 3122Saturday. 3123 3124Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with 3125higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected as the center of Earl 3126moves farther inland. 3127 3128Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), 3129mainly to the northeast of the center. An automated station at 3130Sacrifice Island, Mexico recently reported a gust of 40 mph 3131(64 km/h). 3132 3133The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). 3134 3135 3136HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3137---------------------- 3138WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the warning 3139area tonight and early Saturday morning. 3140 3141RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 31428 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches over portions 3143of the Mexican states of Veracruz, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Guerrero, 3144Puebla, Tabasco, and Campeche through Saturday night. These rains 3145could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 3146 3147 3148NEXT ADVISORY 3149------------- 3150Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. 3151 3152$$ 3153Forecaster Beven 3154 3155 3156 3157------------=_1470462363-55003-1191 3158Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3159Content-Disposition: inline 3160Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3161 3162= = = == = = 3163WTNT35 KNHC 060833 3164TCPAT5 3165 3166BULLETIN 3167TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 16 3168NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 3169400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 3170 3171...EARL WEAKENING OVER MEXICO... 3172...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... 3173 3174 3175SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 3176---------------------------------------------- 3177LOCATION...19.0N 97.0W 3178ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 3179MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 3180PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 3181MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 3182 3183 3184WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3185-------------------- 3186CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 3187 3188None. 3189 3190SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 3191 3192A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 3193* Roca Partido northward to Tecolutla, Mexico. 3194 3195For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 3196products issued by your national meteorological service. 3197 3198 3199DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3200------------------------------ 3201At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was 3202located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Earl is 3203moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is 3204expected to continue today. 3205 3206Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 3207higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Earl moves into 3208the mountains of Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate 3209by Saturday night. 3210 3211Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) 3212mainly over water to the northeast of the center. 3213 3214The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). 3215 3216 3217HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3218---------------------- 3219WIND: Tropical storm conditions over the warning area should end 3220later this morning. 3221 3222RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 322312 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches over portions of 3224the Mexican states of Guerrero, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaxcala 3225and Veracruz through Saturday night. These rains could result in 3226life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 3227 3228 3229NEXT ADVISORY 3230------------- 3231Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. 3232Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. 3233 3234$$ 3235Forecaster Beven 3236 3237 3238 3239------------=_1470472440-55003-1223 3240Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3241Content-Disposition: inline 3242Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3243 3244= = = == = = 3245WTNT35 KNHC 061131 3246TCPAT5 3247 3248BULLETIN 3249TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A 3250NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 3251700 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 3252 3253...EARL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO LATER TODAY... 3254 3255 3256SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 3257---------------------------------------------- 3258LOCATION...19.0N 97.5W 3259ABOUT 100 MI...145 KM W OF VERACRUZ MEXICO 3260MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H 3261PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H 3262MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES 3263 3264 3265WATCHES AND WARNINGS 3266-------------------- 3267CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 3268 3269The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm 3270Warning for Mexico. 3271 3272SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 3273 3274There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. 3275 3276For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 3277issued by your national meteorological service. 3278 3279 3280DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3281------------------------------ 3282At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Earl was 3283located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 97.5 West. Earl is 3284moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is 3285expected to continue today. 3286 3287Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 3288with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Earl moves 3289into the mountains of Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to 3290dissipate later today. 3291 3292The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). 3293 3294 3295HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3296---------------------- 3297RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 329812 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches over portions of 3299the Mexican states of Guerrero, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaxcala 3300and Veracruz through tonight. These rains could result in 3301life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 3302 3303 3304NEXT ADVISORY 3305------------- 3306Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. 3307 3308$$ 3309Forecaster Avila 3310 3311 3312 3313------------=_1470483090-55003-1255 3314Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3315Content-Disposition: inline 3316Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3317 3318= = = == = = 3319