1WTNT42 KNHC 222035
2TCDAT2
3
4TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
6500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016
7
8The low pressure area located west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
9Islands has developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient
10organized convection to be considered a tropical depression.
11Microwave imagery suggests that the system is likely still
12consolidating, with two or more vorticity centers rotating around
13a mean center.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt in agreement
14with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.
15
16The initial motion is 275/16.  The cyclone is on the south side of
17a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic, and as a result it
18should move generally west-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours.
19Beyond that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward
20toward a weakness in the ridge over the central Atlantic.  The
21track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the
22forecast track lies near the consensus models.
23
24The depression is currently in an environment of light to moderate
25easterly vertical shear.  This, combined with warm sea surface
26temperatures, should allow strengthening. One possible negative
27factor, however, is a tongue of African dust/dry air wrapping
28around the west side of the circulation.  On that basis that the
29dry air will not stop development, the intensity forecast calls for
30steady strengthening through 72 hours.  After that time, arrested
31development is likely due to the cyclone encountering moderate to
32strong westerly vertical shear.
33
34
35FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
36
37INIT  22/2100Z 12.1N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
38 12H  23/0600Z 12.4N  31.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
39 24H  23/1800Z 13.2N  34.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
40 36H  24/0600Z 14.5N  37.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
41 48H  24/1800Z 16.2N  39.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
42 72H  25/1800Z 19.7N  44.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
43 96H  26/1800Z 23.8N  50.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
44120H  27/1800Z 26.8N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
45
46$$
47Forecaster Beven/Roberts
48
49
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