1WTNT45 KNHC 242052 2TCDAT5 3 4Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 2 5NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 6500 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 7 8Visible and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the 9inner-core of the small cyclone has noticeably improved since the 10previous advisory. A 1705Z AMSR-2 overpass showed the development 11of tightly curved bands and a 10 mile wide eye-like feature. In 12addition, a 1935Z SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a tightly curved 13band in 91 GHz data that wrapped almost 75 percent around the 14center. Based on the much improved inner-core structure and 33-kt 15wind vectors in an earlier ASCAT-B pass, the depression has been 16upgraded to Tropical Storm Dorian on this advisory. Upper-level 17outflow has been improving to the northwest, but remains slightly 18restricted to the southeast due to some modest southeasterly 19vertical wind shear. 20 21The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The latest NHC model guidance 22remains in excellent agreement that Dorian will generally move 23west-northwestward for the next 5 days around the southern periphery 24of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge that is located 25to the north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles. This motion is 26expected to bring Dorian through the central or northern Lesser 27Antilles on Tuesday, possibly as a hurricane, and then into the 28northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official 29forecast track was shifted slightly north of the previous advisory 30track, and is close to the consensus model TVCN, which remains north 31of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model. 32 33The moderate to strong vertical wind shear that has been hindering 34development of this system for the past several days is forecast to 35diminish significantly during the next 12 h, and remain near 5 kt 36through Tuesday. The low shear conditions, along with warm SSTs and 37the significantly improved small, inner-core structure, should allow 38for at least slow but steady strengthening despite the abundance of 39dry mid-level air nearby. However, the low vertical wind shear and 40tight inner-core wind field are also harbingers of possible rapid 41intensification. For now, the new intensity forecast remains 42conservative and similar to the previous advisory, and is above all 43of the available intensity guidance, including the HWRF model. 44 45Key Messages: 461. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane 47strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. 48 492. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of 50impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane 51watches may be needed for a portion of the area on Sunday. 52 53 54FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 55 56INIT 24/2100Z 10.7N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 57 12H 25/0600Z 11.0N 50.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 58 24H 25/1800Z 11.4N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 59 36H 26/0600Z 11.9N 54.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60 48H 26/1800Z 12.7N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 61 72H 27/1800Z 14.6N 61.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 62 96H 28/1800Z 16.5N 65.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 63120H 29/1800Z 18.4N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 64 65$$ 66Forecaster Stewart 67 68 69 70------------=_1566679937-2016-2123 71Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 72Content-Disposition: inline 73Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 74 75= = = == = = 76WTNT45 KNHC 250248 77TCDAT5 78 79Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 3 80NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 811100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 82 83Dorian's structure hasn't changed substantially since the last 84advisory. Although southeasterly shear and surrounding dry air 85appear to be limiting convection, the most recent available 86microwave imagery showed that the small cyclone is maintaining 87well-defined convective banding. The initial intensity is still 8835 kt, based primarily on the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix. 89 90Confidence in the intensity forecast is particularly low due to a 91number of factors. The small size of Dorian could make it 92susceptible to large short-term swings in intensity (up or down). 93While SHIPS diagnostics suggest that the wind shear will be below 10 94kt for at least the next 72 h, UW-CIMSS shear diagnostics indicate 95that the current shear is higher, more like 15-20 kt. And the 96intensity guidance spread is also notably large, further decreasing 97confidence in the forecast. For now, the NHC intensity forecast has 98not been significantly changed, and shows Dorian near hurricane 99strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles in a few days. This 100is a little above the intensity consensus and it should be stressed 101that it is still too soon to pinpoint potential wind impacts across 102those islands, given the large uncertainty in the forecast. The 103official forecast then shows Dorian maintaining hurricane strength 104across the northeast Caribbean, but it is certainly possible that it 105could be weaker, especially given the expected surrounding dry 106environment and a possible increase in wind shear forecast by the 107GFS and ECMWF models. By the end of the forecast period, the NHC 108intensity forecast is very close to HCCA and IVCN. 109 110An ASCAT-B overpass at 0024 UTC revealed that Dorian is moving 111slightly faster than previously estimated, now 280/12 kt. Unlike the 112intensity guidance, the track models are in quite good agreement on 113the track of Dorian. The tropical storm should continue moving 114westward to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed, steered 115primarily by a mid-level ridge stretching across most of the central 116Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nearly on top of the previous advisory 117and remains very near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. 118 119Key Messages: 1201. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane 121strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. 122 1232. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of 124impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane 125watches will likely be needed for a portion of the islands on 126Sunday. 127 128 129FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 130 131INIT 25/0300Z 10.9N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 132 12H 25/1200Z 11.2N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 133 24H 26/0000Z 11.7N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 134 36H 26/1200Z 12.5N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 135 48H 27/0000Z 13.2N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 136 72H 28/0000Z 15.0N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 137 96H 29/0000Z 17.0N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 138120H 30/0000Z 19.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 139 140$$ 141Forecaster Zelinsky 142 143 144 145------------=_1566701332-2016-2234 146Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 147Content-Disposition: inline 148Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 149 150= = = == = = 151WTNT45 KNHC 250849 152TCDAT5 153 154Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 4 155NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 156500 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 157 158The convective organization of Dorian is about the same as it was 159several hour ago with the storm only producing small, generally 160short-lived thunderstorm areas. GOES-16 1-minute satellite images 161have been particularly helpful in locating the center in between 162bands of convection to the north and south of the cyclone. The 163initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt based on the most recent TAFB 164Dvorak fix. 165 166Dorian continues moving westward or 280/11 kt. A west to 167west-northwestward course of the tropical cyclone is expected during 168the next several days as a mid-level ridge remains in place over 169the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. There has been a noticeable 170change in the guidance tonight, with many models faster and to the 171southwest of earlier runs. This is not uncommon in the early 172stages of tropical Atlantic cyclones where the guidance has 173historically demonstrated a slow, poleward bias. Given the lack of 174interaction with even features at the subtropical latitudes, it 175makes sense to follow the trend of the latest guidance and shift the 176track about 30 n mi southwest during most of the forecast. Notably, 177the GFS and ECMWF models are still south of the new NHC prediction, 178and further adjustments could be required later today. 179 180The intensity forecast appears to be a battle between an 181increasingly conducive oceanic and shear environment during the 182next couple of days versus plentiful dry air in the mid-levels of 183the atmosphere. These mixed conditions primarily point toward slow 184strengthening during that time while Dorian approaches the Windward 185Islands, and no change has been made to the first part of the 186forecast. While Dorian still has a chance to become a hurricane 187over the eastern Caribbean, model guidance has been trending toward 188a higher-shear environment caused by a large upper low in a few 189days. Thus the intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one 190at long range, although it remains above most of the guidance. It 191should be stressed that Dorian is likely to be a difficult cyclone 192to forecast due to the marginal environment it is embedded within 193and its small size. 194 195 196Key Messages: 197 1981. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Barbados, and 199additional watches and warnings for the Windward and Leeward Islands 200will likely be required later today. 201 2022. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of 203impacts in Puerto Rico or Hispaniola, but interests in those areas 204should monitor the progress of Dorian. 205 206 207FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 208 209INIT 25/0900Z 11.0N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 210 12H 25/1800Z 11.3N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 211 24H 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 212 36H 26/1800Z 12.4N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 213 48H 27/0600Z 13.2N 59.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 214 72H 28/0600Z 15.2N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 215 96H 29/0600Z 17.1N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 216120H 30/0600Z 19.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 217 218$$ 219Forecaster Blake 220 221 222 223------------=_1566722998-2016-2337 224Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 225Content-Disposition: inline 226Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 227 228= = = == = = 229WTNT45 KNHC 251449 230TCDAT5 231 232Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 5 233NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 2341100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 235 236The convective organization of Dorian has improved a little since 237the last advisory, as a more persistent area of central convection 238has formed along with increased, but ragged, outer banding. 239However, the various satellite intensity estimates remain clustered 240around 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity. 241 242A combination of 1-minute GOES-16 visible imagery and microwave 243satellite data have helped pinpoint the center, and the initial 244motion is 280/12. The subtropical ridge to the north of the 245cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward 246for the next 3-4 days, with a more northwestward motion possible 247thereafter as Dorian approaches an upper-level low pressure area 248forecast to be over the north-central Caribbean. The model 249guidance continues the previous trend of being south of and a bit 250faster than the previous runs, and as a result the new forecast 251track is again shifted a little to the south. The new forecast 252lies between the previous forecast and the various consensus 253models. However, it is south of the forecasts of the HWRF, the 254UKMET, and the UKMET Ensemble mean. Additional adjustments to the 255track may be required on the next advisory if the current model 256trends continue. 257 258While vertical wind shear is decreasing over Dorian, the cyclone 259still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the ragged convective 260pattern. Some dry air entrainment is expected to continue for the 261next few days, and based on this the new intensity forecast again 262calls for gradual strengthening through 72 h. This part of the 263intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and it 264lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity 265forecast becomes low confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in 266the amount of shear and land that Dorian will encounter. The new 267forecast calls for some weakening due to shear before Dorian moves 268over Hispaniola, followed by weakening to a depression due to 269passage over the island. However, the large range of possibilities 270includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a 271hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over 272Hispaniola. 273 274Key Messages: 275 2761. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Barbados, and a 277Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and 278the Grenadines. Additional watches and warnings for other portions 279of the Lesser Antilles could be required later today. 280 2812. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of 282impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, but 283interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian. 284 285FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 286 287INIT 25/1500Z 11.2N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 288 12H 26/0000Z 11.5N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 289 24H 26/1200Z 12.0N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 290 36H 27/0000Z 12.7N 59.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 291 48H 27/1200Z 13.5N 61.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 292 72H 28/1200Z 15.6N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 293 96H 29/1200Z 17.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 294120H 30/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 295 296$$ 297Forecaster Beven 298 299 300 301------------=_1566744569-2016-2418 302Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 303Content-Disposition: inline 304Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 305 306= = = == = = 307WTNT45 KNHC 252105 308TCDAT5 309 310Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 6 311NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 312500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 313 314While still looking a bit ragged, convection has continued to 315increase near the center of Dorian since the last advisory, and a 316just-received SSMI/S overpass shows a convective band wrapped about 317three-quarters of the way around the center. Various Dvorak-based 318objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are in the 31935-45 kt range, while recent microwave-based estimates are in the 32045-60 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is 321increased to 45 kt. 322 323The initial motion remains 280/12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the 324north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to 325west-northwestward for the next 72 h or so, with a more 326northwestward motion possible thereafter as Dorian approaches an 327upper-level low pressure area forecast to be over the north-central 328Caribbean. The model guidance has not shifted much since the 329previous advisory. However, some of the normally reliable models 330are in disagreement. The ECMWF and GFS keep Dorian weaker and 331farther south, and they are on the left side of the guidance 332envelope. The HWRF and UKMET have more northerly tracks, and 333forecast Dorian to pass near Puerto Rico and then near or north of 334Hispaniola. The various consensus models are between these 335extremes, and the earlier forecast is now close to them. Thus, the 336new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast, and 337it calls for Dorian to move through the Windward Islands between 33836-48 h and cross Hispaniola between 96-120 h. 339 340Dorian still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the somewhat 341ragged convective pattern. This entrainment is expected to continue 342sporadically for the next 2-3 days, and this could slow 343intensification despite an environment of light to moderate shear. 344The intensity guidance is split on how much intensification could 345occur during this time. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM 346models showing more intensification and forecast Dorian to become a 347hurricane. On the dynamical side, the latest HWRF run shows little 348development, and the GFS/ECMWF keep the system weak to the point 349where it degenerates into a tropical wave before reaching 350Hispaniola. The intensity forecast follows the general trend of the 351statistical-dynamical models, but shows less intensification out of 352respect for the dynamical models. The intensity forecast becomes 353even lower confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in how much 354shear and land that Dorian will encounter. The new forecast calls 355for Dorian to weaken to a depression due to passage over Hispaniola. 356However, the large range of possibilities also includes both Dorian 357going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small 358cyclone dissipating completely over the island. 359 360Key Messages: 361 3621. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to 363portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and 364warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to 365advice from local government officials and products from their 366local meteorological service for additional information. 367 3682. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across 369portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6 370inches. 371 3723. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or 373magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin 374Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the 375progress of Dorian. 376 377 378FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 379 380INIT 25/2100Z 11.5N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 381 12H 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 382 24H 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 383 36H 27/0600Z 13.1N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 384 48H 27/1800Z 14.1N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 385 72H 28/1800Z 16.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 386 96H 29/1800Z 18.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 387120H 30/1800Z 20.5N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 388 389$$ 390Forecaster Beven 391 392 393 394------------=_1566767132-2016-2527 395Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 396Content-Disposition: inline 397Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 398 399= = = == = = 400WTNT45 KNHC 260237 401TCDAT5 402 403Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 7 404NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 4051100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 406 407Dorian's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since this afternoon, 408with deep convection oscillating up and down. There are few banding 409features evident, and the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted 410over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The intensity 411estimate remains at 45 kt and is in agreement with a recent Dvorak 412estimate from TAFB. The intensity forecast for this storm is a 413challenge, since the numerical guidance depicts a wide range of 414possibilities. The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian 415over the Caribbean in about 4 days, probably due to the hostile 416environment associated with an upper-level low near Hispaniola. 417Another unfavorable factor could be dry air that is also forecast by 418the global models over the Caribbean. On the other hand, the 419statistical/dynamical models DSHIPS and LGEM do not weaken the 420system until it interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola. The 421official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN, 422but it should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty 423associated with this forecast. 424 425The motion continues to be slightly north of due west or 280/12. 426Dorian is moving along the southern side of the subtropical ridge. 427The track models are in good agreement that the cyclone will 428gradually turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. A slight 429weakness in the ridge near 70W longitude in a couple of days should 430induce a gradual turn to the northwest later in the forecast period. 431The official track forecast is close to the corrected consensus, 432HCCA prediction and is also very close to the previous NHC track. 433 434Key Messages: 435 4361. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to 437portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and 438warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to 439advice from local government officials and products from their 440local meteorological service for additional information. 441 4422. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across 443portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6 444inches. 445 4463. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or 447magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin 448Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the 449progress of Dorian. 450 451 452FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 453 454INIT 26/0300Z 11.7N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 455 12H 26/1200Z 12.1N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 456 24H 27/0000Z 12.8N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 457 36H 27/1200Z 13.7N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 458 48H 28/0000Z 14.8N 63.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 459 72H 29/0000Z 17.2N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 460 96H 30/0000Z 19.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 461120H 31/0000Z 21.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 462 463$$ 464Forecaster Pasch/Latto 465 466 467 468------------=_1566787055-2016-2650 469Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 470Content-Disposition: inline 471Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 472 473= = = == = = 474WTNT45 KNHC 260849 475TCDAT5 476 477Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 8 478NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 479500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 480 481Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with 482Dorian continues to fluctuate curtailing significant strengthening 483likely due to intrusions of dry air. The overall trend, however, 484suggests that Dorian is gradually getting better organized with its 485cloud pattern consisting of a compact central dense overcast and 486some broken outer bands. The initial intensity is nudged up to 50 487kt based on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates. Dorian 488remains a small storm with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated 489to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center. 490 491During the next couple of days, as Dorian moves through the Windward 492Islands and across the eastern Caribbean, slow strengthening seems 493likely due to low wind shear conditions and high SSTs. However, the 494surrounding dry air around the cyclone should continue to limit the 495rate of intensification. When Dorian approaches Hispaniola in 496about 3 days, the models show an increase in shear and those 497stronger environmental winds and the potential interaction with the 498rugged terrain of Hispaniola suggest that significant weakening is 499likely. The NHC intensity forecast remains between the dynamical 500models that show little or no strengthening and the statistical DSHP 501and LGEM that show significant intensification. It should be noted 502that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian 503dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the 504model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low 505confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like 506Dorian are often challenging to predict. 507 508Dorian is moving westward at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge 509to its north. The storm should turn west-northwestward today and 510then northwestward on Wednesday when the cyclone gets closer to the 511eastern end of the mid- to upper-level low. The track models have 512shifted slightly to the right or north this cycle, and the NHC 513track forecast has been nudged in that direction. 514 515Key Messages: 516 5171. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to 518portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and 519warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to 520advice from local government officials and products from their 521local meteorological service for additional information. 522 5232. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in Barbados, 524the Windward Islands, and Dominica, with isolated amounts as high as 5256 inches. 526 5273. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or 528magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin 529Islands, or Hispaniola, interests in those areas should monitor the 530progress of Dorian and watches could be required later today. 531 532FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 533 534INIT 26/0900Z 11.9N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 535 12H 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 536 24H 27/0600Z 13.2N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 537 36H 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 538 48H 28/0600Z 15.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 539 72H 29/0600Z 18.0N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 540 96H 30/0600Z 20.8N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 541120H 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 542 543$$ 544Forecaster Cangialosi 545 546 547 548------------=_1566809377-2016-2750 549Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 550Content-Disposition: inline 551Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 552 553= = = == = = 554WTNT45 KNHC 261500 555TCDAT5 556 557Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 9 558NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 5591100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 560 561Satellite imagery indicates that Dorian's convective and outflow 562pattern have continued to improve, with a narrow poleward outflow 563channel now apparent in water vapor images. Passive microwave 564imagery has shown a persistent low-level eye-like feature 565along with an intermittent mid-level eyewall forming that quickly 566erodes due to mid-level dry air entrainment. The initial intensity 567of 50 kt is based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates 568ranging from 45 kt to 56 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and 569SATCON. 570 571The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. Dorian is 572expected to continue moving west-northwestward today through Tuesday 573night as the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery of a 574deep-layer subtropical ridge situated to its north. On Wednesday, 575Dorian is forecast to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the 576ridge, which could allow the cyclone to pass near or between 577western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. By late 578Thursday and Friday, all of the model guidance indicates that the 579ridge will build back as an upper-level trough/low weakens and lifts 580out to the north, which should result in Dorian turning back toward 581the west-northwest in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The new NHC track 582forecast has been nudged slightly to the right or north of the 583previous one and lies close to the tightly clustered consensus 584models HCCA, FSSE, TVCN, and TVCX. 585 586The intensity forecast is less straight-forward than the track 587forecast. Environmental conditions, except for the abundance of dry 588mid-level air surrounding and occasionally being entrained into 589Dorian's inner-core region, would favor at least steady 590strengthening due to very low vertical wind shear, SSTs of at least 59129C, and the small overall circulation and inner-core wind field. 592The recent development of a poleward outflow channel and possible 593development of an equatorward channel would also support 594strengthening. However, until Dorian closes off a solid eyewall, 595only slow strengthening is likely. Anticipating when an eye will 596form is challenging, but Dorian could be a hurricane by the time it 597reaches the Windward Islands. The intensity forecast has been 598adjusted upward form the previous advisory, but is not as high as 599the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models. 600Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result 601in some weakening in 72-96 hours, followed by restrengthening on day 6025 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the 603Bahamas in low shear conditions. Given the unknown degree of 604interaction with Hispaniola, the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5 605is of very low confidence. 606 607Key Messages: 608 6091. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 610of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday, where tropical storm 611watches and warnings are in effect. Hurricane conditions are also 612possible in portions of the Windward Islands, and a hurricane watch 613has been issued for St. Lucia. Residents in these areas should refer 614to advice from local government officials and products from their 615local meteorological service for additional information. 616 6172. Dorian is expected to produce 3 to 8 inches of rainfall from 618Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals 619as high as 10 inches in portions of the northern Windward Islands. 620 6213. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall has increased 622for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Interests in those areas should 623monitor the progress of Dorian and tropical storm or hurricane 624watches will likely be required later today. 625 6264. Any potential impacts from Dorian in the Bahamas and Florida 627later this week are highly uncertain, given the potential for the 628system to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola. 629 630FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 631 632INIT 26/1500Z 12.3N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 633 12H 27/0000Z 12.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 634 24H 27/1200Z 13.9N 61.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 635 36H 28/0000Z 15.1N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 636 48H 28/1200Z 16.4N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 637 72H 29/1200Z 19.2N 69.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...NERN HISPANIOLA 638 96H 30/1200Z 22.0N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 639120H 31/1200Z 24.8N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 640 641$$ 642Forecaster Stewart 643 644 645 646------------=_1566831670-2016-2895 647Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 648Content-Disposition: inline 649Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 650 651= = = == = = 652WTNT45 KNHC 262055 653TCDAT5 654 655Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 10 656NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 657500 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 658 659Dorian's convective pattern has waxed and waned this afternoon due 660to intrusions of dry mid-level air while the upper-level outflow 661pattern has continued to expand and become more symmetrical. 662Although the inner-core convection has decreased recently, a recent 663burst of strong convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has 664redeveloped just north of the low-level center. The initial 665intensity remains at 50 kt based on a an average of satellite 666intensity estimates ranging from 45 kt to 61 kt from TAFB, SAB, and 667UW-CIMSS SATCON and ADT. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance 668aircraft is scheduled to investigate Dorian by 0000 UTC this 669evening, and will provide a better estimate of the cyclone's 670intensity. 671 672The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/12 kt. There is no 673significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The 674latest NHC model guidance remains in very agreement that Dorian will 675move west-northwestward across the central Lesser Antilles tonight 676and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday as the cyclone 677moves around the edge of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located well to 678the north. On Wednesday, Dorian should turn northwestward into a 679small weakness in the ridge, allowing the tropical cyclone to pass 680near or between western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican 681Republic. By late Thursday and Friday, the ridge is forecast to 682build back in as an upper-level trough lifts out to the north, 683causing Dorian to turn back toward the west-northwest in the 684vicinity of the central Bahamas. The new official forecast track is 685just an extension of the previous one since the latest model 686guidance, especially the consensus models, are tightly packed around 687the previous track forecast. 688 689The intensity forecast remains something of an enigma. The majority 690of the environmental conditions support at least steady 691strengthening, with the main hindrance being the very dry mid-level 692air surrounding the cyclone and occasionally being entrained into 693Dorian's inner-core region. The small but robust circulation should 694continue mix out the brief dry air intrusions, but when an eyewall 695will form is still uncertain. Given that Dorian will be moving into 696the convective maximum period later tonight, the intensity forecast 697still calls for Dorian be near hurricane strength when it passes 698through the Windward Islands. Interaction with Hispaniola and 699possibly Puerto Rico should result in some weakening in 72-96 700hours, followed by restrengthening on days 4 and 5 when Dorian will 701be moving over the very warm waters in the Bahamas in low shear 702conditions. Most of the global models along with the statistical- 703dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced 704strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so 705the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous 706one at 96 and 120 hours. However, confidence in the intensity 707forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how 708much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola. 709 710Key Messages: 711 7121. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 713of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday, where tropical storm 714watches and warnings are in effect. Hurricane conditions are 715possible in St. Lucia, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 716Rainfall of 3 to 8 inches is expected from Martinique to St. 717Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 718inches possible. 719 7202. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on 721Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall 722of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible 723across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. 724 7253. Watches will likely be issued for portions of Hispaniola tonight 726or Tuesday, as the threat of wind and rain impacts continues to 727increase. 728 7294. While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in 730the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents 731in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that 732they have their hurricane plan in place. 733 734FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 735 736INIT 26/2100Z 12.7N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 737 12H 27/0600Z 13.4N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 738 24H 27/1800Z 14.5N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 739 36H 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 740 48H 28/1800Z 17.1N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 741 72H 29/1800Z 20.1N 70.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 742 96H 30/1800Z 23.0N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 743120H 31/1800Z 25.5N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 744 745$$ 746Forecaster Stewart 747 748 749 750------------=_1566852912-2016-3071 751Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 752Content-Disposition: inline 753Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 754 755= = = == = = 756WTNT45 KNHC 270244 757TCDAT5 758 759Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 11 760NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 7611100 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 762 763An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been 764investigating Dorian this evening. Data from the plane indicate 765that the storm is not quite as strong as previously estimated, and 766based on flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds the 767intensity is set at 45 kt. Fixes from the aircraft show that the 768center of the cyclone moved just south of the southern coast of 769Barbados within the last couple of hours, and tropical-storm-force 770winds were reported over that island. There is fairly well-defined 771upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. 772Although some dry mid-level air is likely to continue to affect 773Dorian while it moves over the northeastern Caribbean, the dynamical 774guidance indicates that the shear will not become very strong. 775Therefore it is still expected that the cyclone will become a 776hurricane in a couple of days. Some disruption of the system will 777likely occur when the center moves near eastern Hispaniola. The 778official intensity forecast is on the high end of the model guidance 779and is subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly from days 3 780to 5. 781 782Dorian continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, while 783being steered by the flow on the south side of the subtropical 784ridge. In a day or two, the tropical cyclone is expected to turn 785northwestward due to a weakness in the ridge. The ridge is 786expected to build somewhat later in the forecast period, which 787should cause Dorian to turn slightly to the left. The ECMWF model 788is near the northern side of the guidance suite and the UKMET is 789near the southern side. The GFS model continues to practically 790dissipate the system so it was unable to generate a forecast 791track. The official track forecast was shifted a bit to the north, 792but lies south of the latest dynamical model consensus. It is 793advisable that one not focus on small changes in the forecast track 794due to uncertainties. 795 796Key Messages: 797 7981. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 799of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday morning, where tropical storm 800watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of 3 to 8 inches is 801expected from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with 802isolated totals as high as 10 inches possible. 803 8042. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on 805Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall 806of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible 807across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. 808 8093. Watches will likely be issued for portions of Hispaniola early 810Tuesday, as the threat of wind and rain impacts continues to 811increase. 812 8134. While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in 814the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents 815in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that 816they have their hurricane plan in place. 817 818 819FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 820 821INIT 27/0300Z 13.2N 59.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 822 12H 27/1200Z 14.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 823 24H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 824 36H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 825 48H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 826 72H 30/0000Z 21.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 827 96H 31/0000Z 24.0N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 828120H 01/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 829 830$$ 831Forecaster Pasch 832 833 834 835------------=_1566873859-2016-3224 836Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 837Content-Disposition: inline 838Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 839 840= = = == = = 841WTNT45 KNHC 270854 842TCDAT5 843 844Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 12 845NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 846500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 847 848Dorian passed over Barbados a few hours ago and it is now very near 849the Windward Islands. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters 850earlier this morning suggest that the storm has held steady in 851intensity with a blend of the flight level and SFMR winds 852supporting a wind speed of 45 kt. The Caribbean composite 853radar data show that Dorian remains a very compact system and that 854it still lacks a well-defined inner core. 855 856Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere around Dorian has been 857causing the storm to remain in a fairly steady state during the 858past day or so despite relatively low wind shear conditions and warm 859SSTs. The models show this dry air persisting in the vicinity of 860the system while it tracks across the Caribbean during the next day 861or two, so it seems likely that Dorian will continue to only 862gradually intensify during that time. When Dorian nears Hispaniola 863in 36 to 48 hours, there will likely be some increase in wind shear 864and those less favorable winds aloft and the interaction with the 865landmasses of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should cause considerable 866weakening. Once the system moves north of the Greater Antilles, the 867environmental conditions become more favorable for intensification, 868and most of the intensity guidance responds by showing an increase 869in winds. However, there remains considerable uncertainty for this 870part of the forecast because the future intensity of Dorian will be 871quite dependent on how much land interaction there is with the 872mountainous island of Hispaniola. The NHC intensity forecast lies 873near the upper end of the guidance in the short term, while the 874system is over the Caribbean Sea, but near the middle of the 875guidance envelope after that. 876 877The storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt steered by a 878subtropical ridge to the north. This general motion should 879continue for another 12 to 24 hours taking Dorian across the eastern 880Caribbean Sea. After that time, a slight turn to the northwest is 881likely when the cyclone nears the eastern portion of a cut off mid- 882to upper-level low and moves toward a weakness in the ridge. This 883should take Dorian across the Dominican Republic and the Mona 884Passage and over the Bahamas in the 3 to 4 day time period. A ridge 885is likely to rebuild to the north of Dorian when it is forecast to 886be over the Bahamas and that could cause it to turn slightly to the 887left by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast 888is largely unchanged while Dorian is in the Caribbean, but it has 889been shifted slightly to the north thereafter. Users are reminded 890not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the 891average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. 892 893 894Key Messages: 895 8961. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 897of the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours, where 898tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of 3 to 8996 inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent with isolated 900totals as high as 10 inches possible. 901 9022. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions 903are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm 904warning and hurricane watch have been issued. Rainfall of 2 to 4 905inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto 906Rico and St. Croix. 907 9083. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for 909portions of the Dominican Republic. 910 9114. While uncertainty remains high, wind and rain impacts are 912possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this 913weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of 914Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 915 916 917FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 918 919INIT 27/0900Z 13.5N 60.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 920 12H 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 921 24H 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 922 36H 28/1800Z 17.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 923 48H 29/0600Z 18.5N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 924 72H 30/0600Z 21.7N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 925 96H 31/0600Z 24.7N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 926120H 01/0600Z 27.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 927 928$$ 929Forecaster Cangialosi 930 931 932 933------------=_1566896088-2016-3381 934Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 935Content-Disposition: inline 936Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 937 938= = = == = = 939WTNT45 KNHC 271449 940TCDAT5 941 942Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 13 943NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 9441100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 945 946Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000 947UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small 948inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft 949had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from 950Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been 951disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance 952of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved 953since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now 954evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The 955initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft 956flight-level and SFMR surface wind data. 957 958The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There 959is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or 960reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center 961have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained 962intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward 963for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge 964located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently 965located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast 966to gradually weaken while digging southeastward across the central 967Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in 968Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the 969west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward 970turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low. 971For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to 972push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The 973NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on 974this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an 975average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded 976not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the 977average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. 978 979Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the 980mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant 981development in the short term. However, the models continue to 982indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are 983expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the 984forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not 985showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more 986robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and 9875 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and 988into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity 989forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model 990and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large 991spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the 992intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5. 993 994Key Messages: 995 9961. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser 997Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions 998are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on 999Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night 1000and Thursday. 1001 10022. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, 1003and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the 1004next few days. 1005 10063. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this 1007weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is 1008increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of 1009Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 1010 10114. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains 1012higher than usual due Dorian's potential interaction with Hispaniola 1013and Puerto Rico. 1014 1015FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1016 1017INIT 27/1500Z 14.2N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 1018 12H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 1019 24H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 1020 36H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 1021 48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 1022 72H 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 1023 96H 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 1024120H 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 1025 1026$$ 1027Forecaster Stewart 1028 1029 1030 1031------------=_1566917393-2016-3485 1032Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1033Content-Disposition: inline 1034Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1035 1036= = = == = = 1037WTNT45 KNHC 271512 CCA 1038TCDAT5 1039 1040Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 13...Corrected 1041NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 10421100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 1043 1044Corrected southeastward to southwestward motion in third paragraph 1045 1046Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000 1047UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small 1048inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft 1049had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from 1050Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been 1051disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance 1052of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved 1053since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now 1054evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The 1055initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft 1056flight-level and SFMR surface wind data. 1057 1058The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There 1059is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or 1060reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center 1061have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained 1062intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward 1063for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge 1064located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently 1065located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast 1066to gradually weaken while digging southwestward across the central 1067Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in 1068Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the 1069west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward 1070turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low. 1071For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to 1072push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The 1073NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on 1074this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an 1075average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded 1076not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the 1077average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. 1078 1079Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the 1080mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant 1081development in the short term. However, the models continue to 1082indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are 1083expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the 1084forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not 1085showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more 1086robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and 10875 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and 1088into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity 1089forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model 1090and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large 1091spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the 1092intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5. 1093 1094Key Messages: 1095 10961. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser 1097Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions 1098are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on 1099Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night 1100and Thursday. 1101 11022. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, 1103and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the 1104next few days. 1105 11063. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this 1107weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is 1108increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of 1109Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 1110 11114. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains 1112higher than usual due Dorian's potential interaction with Hispaniola 1113and Puerto Rico. 1114 1115FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1116 1117INIT 27/1500Z 14.2N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 1118 12H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 1119 24H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 1120 36H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 1121 48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 1122 72H 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 1123 96H 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 1124120H 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 1125 1126$$ 1127Forecaster Stewart 1128 1129 1130 1131------------=_1566918806-2016-3495 1132Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1133Content-Disposition: inline 1134Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1135 1136= = = == = = 1137WTNT45 KNHC 272100 1138TCDAT5 1139 1140Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 14 1141NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1142500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 1143 1144Dorian's convective pattern has continued to fluctuate this 1145afternoon due to some interaction with the Windward and Leeward 1146Islands, but mainly due to intrusions of very dry mid-level air. A 114710-mile wide eye feature developed in Martinique and Guadeloupe 1148radar data between 1500-1600 UTC and again between 1700-1800 UTC. 1149But this feature had been short-lived due to erosion of the 1150inner-core convection caused by dry air entrainment, although a 1151recent burst of deep convection has developed near and over the 1152low-level center. Dorian's upper-level outflow has continued to 1153expand and is very symmetrical. The initial intensity has been 1154maintained at 45 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level and SFMR 1155surface wind data. 1156 1157Despite the center redeveloping farther north, radar and recon 1158fixes indicate that the motion remains west-northwestward or 1159300/11 kt. Due to the more northward initial position, the new 1160forecast track was shifted 30-60 n mi northeast of the previous 1161one track through 96 hours. The global models are in good agreement 1162on Dorian moving west-northwestward tonight and then turning 1163northwestward on Wednesday, bringing the cyclone's center near 1164or over the central or western portions of Puerto Rico. After 1165clearing the island by early Thursday, Dorian is forecast to move 1166cyclonically around the eastern portion of a southwestward-moving 1167mid/upper-level low on days 3-5. The evolution of the upper-low and 1168how strong the mid-level ridge to the north builds in behind the low 1169and across the southeastern U.S. will determine when and how sharp 1170Dorian's turn back the west-northwest will occur. The new NHC track 1171is close to a blend consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and 1172brings Dorian near the east-central Florida coast in 120 hours. 1173Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track 1174forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. 1175 1176Dry air should continue to plague Dorian for the next 24 hours or 1177so, resulting in only slow strengthening. Land interaction with 1178Puerto Rico should significantly weaken the small cyclone, thus the 1179intensities were lowered at 36 and 48 hours. On days 3-5, the models 1180continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear 1181conditions should favor strengthening, especially since Dorian will 1182be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a moist mid-level 1183environment. The dynamical models such as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF 1184are now showing more strengthening than previous runs, but still 1185remain well below the statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models, 1186which bring Dorian to category 1 or 2 strength by day 5. The 1187official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the these 1188two extremes, and is close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus models. 1189Given the large spread in the guidance, there remains lower-than- 1190normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4 1191and 5. 1192 1193Key Messages: 1194 11951. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands 1196and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican 1197Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane conditions are 1198possible in Puerto Rico and portions of the Dominican Republic. 1199 12002. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican 1201Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days. 1202Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and 1203Florida later this week and into early next week. 1204 12053. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with 1206storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east 1207coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the 1208progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in 1209place. 1210 12114. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains 1212higher than usual due to the potential for Dorian's interaction with 1213Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to weaken the storm. 1214 1215FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1216 1217INIT 27/2100Z 15.3N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 1218 12H 28/0600Z 16.2N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 1219 24H 28/1800Z 17.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 1220 36H 29/0600Z 19.1N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 1221 48H 29/1800Z 20.8N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 1222 72H 30/1800Z 24.2N 72.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 1223 96H 31/1800Z 26.7N 76.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 1224120H 01/1800Z 28.2N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST 1225 1226$$ 1227Forecaster Stewart 1228 1229 1230 1231------------=_1566939628-2016-3652 1232Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1233Content-Disposition: inline 1234Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1235 1236= = = == = = 1237WTNT45 KNHC 280250 1238TCDAT5 1239 1240Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 15 1241NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 12421100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 1243 1244Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that 1245Dorian is yet to strengthen, and the initial intensity remains near 124645 kt. The storm's cloud pattern remains rather ragged-looking 1247with no clear convective banding features. Since the storm has 1248strong upper-level outflow over the western semicircle of the 1249circulation and vertical shear should remain low for the next day or 1250two, strengthening is still forecast before Dorian reaches Puerto 1251Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is likely by 24 hours due to the 1252interaction of the circulation with Puerto Rico. The intensity 1253forecast in 3-5 days remains problematic because of a significant 1254spread in the model guidance and some run-to-run inconsistencies. 1255The official intensity forecast has been increased in comparison to 1256the previous ones. However, it is now near the low end of the 1257numerical guidance suite. 1258 1259Dorian has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion 1260estimate is 310/11 kt. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone 1261will be headed toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In 3-4 1262days, the global models show the ridge rebuilding somewhat over the 1263western Atlantic. This scenario should cause Dorian to turn toward 1264the left later in the forecast period. The official forecast has 1265been shifted to the north of the previous one. This is in close 1266agreement with the ECMWF model track, but south and southwest of 1267the latest simple and corrected consensus predictions. 1268 1269 1270Key Messages: 1271 12721. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British 1273Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and are possible in 1274portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. 1275Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. 1276 12772. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican 1278Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days. 1279Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and 1280Florida later this week and into early next week. 1281 12823. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with 1283storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east 1284coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the 1285progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in 1286place. 1287 12884. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains 1289higher than usual due a large spread in model guidance. 1290storm. 1291 1292 1293FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1294 1295INIT 28/0300Z 16.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 1296 12H 28/1200Z 17.0N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 1297 24H 29/0000Z 18.5N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 1298 36H 29/1200Z 20.3N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 1299 48H 30/0000Z 22.1N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 1300 72H 31/0000Z 25.3N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 1301 96H 01/0000Z 27.4N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 1302120H 02/0000Z 28.8N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 1303 1304$$ 1305Forecaster Pasch 1306 1307 1308 1309------------=_1566960660-2016-3858 1310Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1311Content-Disposition: inline 1312Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1313 1314= = = == = = 1315WTNT45 KNHC 280848 1316TCDAT5 1317 1318Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 16 1319NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1320500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 1321 1322Satellite images and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate 1323that Dorian is becoming better organized with banding features now 1324more established on the north side of the circulation. The 1325flight-level and SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters 1326were a little higher in the most recent passes through the storm, 1327and a blend of that data supports an initial intensity of about 50 1328kt. The Hurricane Hunters also reported that Dorian has developed a 1329partial eyewall and that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1003 1330mb. A combination of the reconnaissance data and recent ASCAT 1331passes were used to modify the initial wind radii, and it confirms 1332that Dorian remains a compact and asymmetric tropical storm. 1333 1334Dorian is moving northwestward at 11 kt toward a weakness in the 1335ridge caused by a cut off mid- to upper-level low to the north of 1336Hispaniola. This motion should continue for the next few days, 1337taking Dorian across the Virgin Islands or the eastern portion of 1338Puerto Rico later today and to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday 1339and Friday. By late in the week, the steering pattern is expected 1340to change as the models show a ridge building over the western 1341Atlantic. The flow between the ridge and the aforementioned mid- to 1342upper-level low should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and 1343approach the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. The new NHC 1344track forecast is adjusted a little to the right at most forecast 1345times trending toward the latest consensus aids. However, there has 1346been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so 1347confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users 1348are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the 1349average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. 1350 1351Some additional slow strengthening seems likely today before Dorian 1352reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The land interaction 1353could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary 1354weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification 1355after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic. 1356Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane 1357in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time. 1358The NHC intensity forecast is increased from the previous one, 1359especially at the longer forecast times, to be in better agreement 1360with the latest models. This forecast, however, is still on the 1361lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments 1362could be needed if the guidance trends persists. It is also worth 1363noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the 1364time it nears the southeast U.S. 1365 1366 1367Key Messages: 1368 13691. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British 1370Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and are possible in 1371portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. 1372Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico and the U.S. 1373Virgin Islands today. 1374 13752. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and 1376British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next 1377couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of 1378the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week. 1379 13803. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with 1381storm surge, in the northwestern Bahamas and along portions of the 1382Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should 1383monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their 1384hurricane plan in place. 1385 13864. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast late this week remains 1387higher than usual due to a large spread in the model guidance. 1388 1389 1390FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1391 1392INIT 28/0900Z 16.8N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 1393 12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 1394 24H 29/0600Z 19.5N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 1395 36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 1396 48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 1397 72H 31/0600Z 26.1N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 1398 96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 1399120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 1400 1401$$ 1402Forecaster Cangialosi 1403 1404 1405 1406------------=_1566982143-2016-3930 1407Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1408Content-Disposition: inline 1409Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1410 1411= = = == = = 1412WTNT45 KNHC 281459 1413TCDAT5 1414 1415Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 17 1416NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 14171100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 1418 1419Satellite and radar images indicate that the cloud pattern has 1420become better organized during the past several hours. This was 1421confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane currently 1422investigating Dorian, which reported a flight-level wind of 72 kt 1423and a peak SFMR value of 60 kt. The estimated central pressure was 1424999 mb in the last fix. On this basis the initial intensity has 1425been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Only a slow strengthening is 1426anticipated today while Dorian is moving through the U.S. and 1427British Virgin Islands. However, once the cyclone reaches the 1428western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a 1429favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a 1430more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than 1431the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the 1432end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity 1433consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance. 1434 1435Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been 1436moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is 1437heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and 1438this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after 1439that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western 1440Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more 1441to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the 1442United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a 1443powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of 1444the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly 1445different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the 1446multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to 1447focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error 1448is around 200 miles. 1449 1450Key Messages: 1451 14521. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin 1453Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are 1454expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible. 1455 14562. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and 1457British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next 1458couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of 1459the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied 1460States later this week and into early next week. 1461 14623. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is 1463increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the 1464Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these 1465hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that 1466they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact 1467forecast track of Dorian's center. 1468 1469FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1470 1471INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 1472 12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 1473 24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 1474 36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 1475 48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 1476 72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 1477 96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 1478120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 1479 1480$$ 1481Forecaster Avila 1482 1483 1484 1485------------=_1567004420-110607-6 1486Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1487Content-Disposition: inline 1488Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1489 1490= = = == = = 1491WTNT45 KNHC 281510 CCA 1492TCDAT5 1493 1494Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 17...CORRECTED 1495NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 14961100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 1497 1498Corrected day 5 intensity forecast in table. 1499 1500Satellite and radar images indicate that the cloud pattern has 1501become better organized during the past several hours. This was 1502confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane currently 1503investigating Dorian, which reported a flight-level wind of 72 kt 1504and a peak SFMR value of 60 kt. The estimated central pressure was 1505999 mb in the last fix. On this basis the initial intensity has 1506been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Only a slow strengthening is 1507anticipated today while Dorian is moving through the U.S. and 1508British Virgin Islands. However, once the cyclone reaches the 1509western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a 1510favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a 1511more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than 1512the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the 1513end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity 1514consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance. 1515 1516Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been 1517moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is 1518heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and 1519this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after 1520that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western 1521Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more 1522to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the 1523United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a 1524powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of 1525the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly 1526different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the 1527multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to 1528focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error 1529is around 200 miles. 1530 1531Key Messages: 1532 15331. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin 1534Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are 1535expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible. 1536 15372. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and 1538British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next 1539couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of 1540the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied 1541States later this week and into early next week. 1542 15433. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is 1544increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the 1545Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these 1546hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that 1547they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact 1548forecast track of Dorian's center. 1549 1550 1551FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1552 1553INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 1554 12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 1555 24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 1556 36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 1557 48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 1558 72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 1559 96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 1560120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 1561 1562$$ 1563Forecaster Avila 1564 1565 1566 1567------------=_1567005071-110607-10 1568Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1569Content-Disposition: inline 1570Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1571 1572= = = == = = 1573WTNT45 KNHC 282044 1574TCDAT5 1575 1576Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 18 1577NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1578500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 1579 1580The cloud pattern has become better organized with a hint of an eye 1581on high resolution satellite imagery and plenty of convective bands. 1582In addition, earlier data from a reconnaissance plane and surface 1583observations from St. Thomas as Dorian moved by yield an initial 1584intensity of 70 kt. Now that the hurricane has developed an inner 1585core with a 15 to 20 n mi eye, strengthening is more likely. Given 1586the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in 1587the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked 1588intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72 1589hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall. This 1590forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, the HCCA model, 1591and the SHIPS guidance. 1592 1593Satellite and earlier reconnaissance plane fixes indicate that 1594Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 12 1595kt. The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic 1596subtropical ridge, and this northwest motion should continue for the 1597next 24 to 48 hours. However, after that time, all the global models 1598continue to build a strong ridge over the western Atlantic, and this 1599flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest 1600toward Florida. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, 1601a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula. The 1602new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous 1603one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and 1604the track models show more of a westward motion. Users are reminded 1605not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track 1606error is around 200 miles. 1607 1608Key Messages: 1609 16101. Dangerous winds will continue in the Virgin Islands, Culebra, 1611Vieques, and portions of Puerto Rico during the next few hours. 1612Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands 1613could produce flash flooding through Thursday morning. 1614 16152. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later 1616this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and 1617northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it 1618is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents 1619in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place 1620and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 1621 16223. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, 1623Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this 1624week and into early next week. 1625 1626FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1627 1628INIT 28/2100Z 18.8N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 1629 12H 29/0600Z 20.1N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 1630 24H 29/1800Z 22.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 1631 36H 30/0600Z 23.8N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 1632 48H 30/1800Z 25.2N 71.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 1633 72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 1634 96H 01/1800Z 27.7N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 1635120H 02/1800Z 28.2N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 1636 1637$$ 1638Forecaster Avila 1639 1640 1641 1642------------=_1567025109-110607-115 1643Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1644Content-Disposition: inline 1645Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1646 1647= = = == = = 1648WTNT45 KNHC 290239 1649TCDAT5 1650 1651Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 19 1652NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 16531100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 1654 1655Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft 1656indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show 1657that the eye is becoming better defined. Based on SFMR-observed 1658surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is 1659increased to 75 kt. Dorian should remain in an environment of low 1660shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29 1661deg C for the next several days. This should allow for Dorian to 1662intensify into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast 1663is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model 1664output. 1665 1666The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt. 1667Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in 1668the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. Later in the 1669forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic. This 1670evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn 1671west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula. The actual 1672track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the 1673western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame. This is, of 1674course, subject to uncertainty. The official track forecast is very 1675similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and 1676corrected dynamical model consensus. 1677 1678 1679Key Messages: 1680 16811. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later 1682this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and 1683northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it 1684is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents 1685in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place 1686and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 1687 16882. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, 1689Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this 1690week and into early next week. 1691 1692 1693FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1694 1695INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 1696 12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 1697 24H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 1698 36H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 1699 48H 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 1700 72H 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 1701 96H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 1702120H 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 1703 1704$$ 1705Forecaster Pasch 1706 1707 1708 1709------------=_1567046386-110607-217 1710Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1711Content-Disposition: inline 1712Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1713 1714= = = == = = 1715WTNT45 KNHC 290843 1716TCDAT5 1717 1718Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 20 1719NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1720500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 1721 1722Soon after the previous advisory was issued, Dorian appeared to 1723have a bit of a hiccup in its structure. A dry slot was noted 1724penetrating into the southeastern portion of the circulation, with 1725the eye becoming cloud- and rain-filled. In fact, dropsonde data 1726from the Air Force Reserve mission indicated that the central 1727pressure had come back up a bit to around 991 mb. That being said, 1728the plane still measured maximum SFMR winds between 70-75 kt, so the 1729initial intensity is being held steady at 75 kt for this advisory. 1730 1731Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. 1732Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48 1733hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and 1734then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to 1735the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward 1736across the Straits of Florida. The models, and their ensembles, 1737continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from 1738their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS 1739is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a 1740weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia 1741border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges 1742and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the 1743spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous 1744forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and 1745Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a 1746position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble 1747means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a 1748little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches 1749Florida. 1750 1751Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly 1752shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this 1753shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very 1754warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin 1755strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur. 1756The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the 1757previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State 1758Superensemble aids during the first day or two. After 48 hours, the 1759official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but 1760it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State 1761Superensemble, and the HWRF. Dorian is likely to reach major 1762hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to 1763maintain that status until it reaches land. 1764 1765 1766Key Messages: 1767 17681. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later 1769this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and 1770northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it 1771is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents 1772in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place 1773and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 1774 17752. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, 1776Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this 1777week and into early next week. 1778 1779 1780FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1781 1782INIT 29/0900Z 20.5N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 1783 12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 1784 24H 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 1785 36H 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 1786 48H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 1787 72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 1788 96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 1789120H 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 1790 1791$$ 1792Forecaster Berg 1793 1794 1795 1796------------=_1567068221-110607-310 1797Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1798Content-Disposition: inline 1799Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1800 1801= = = == = = 1802WTNT45 KNHC 291447 1803TCDAT5 1804 1805Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 21 1806NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 18071100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 1808 1809The small eye of Dorian has appeared intermittently in infrared 1810satellite imagery this morning. Recent reports from a NOAA P-3 1811aircraft indicate that there is now a double eyewall structure, 1812with a small inner eye only 5 n mi in diameter and a larger 25-n mi 1813diameter outer eyewall. The minimum pressure has fallen to 1814around 986 mb. The concentric eyewall structure is likely why the 1815aircraft has not found any stronger winds yet in the storm, despite 1816the decrease in central pressure. The initial intensity remains 75 1817kt for this advisory. 1818 1819Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Dorian is moving 1820northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Dorian is forecast to 1821continue moving northwestward during the next 24-36 hours between an 1822upper-level low that will be dropping southwestward across the 1823Florida Straits and a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the 1824hurricane. After that time, a ridge is forecast to build to the 1825north of Dorian, which should cause the track to bend back toward 1826the west-northwest. The track guidance becomes more divergent beyond 182772 hours, primarily due to model differences in the strength of the 1828ridge and whether a weakness develops in the ridge late in the 1829period. The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the 1830previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus. 1831It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected 1832consensus models remain south of the official forecast. The spread 1833of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is 1834still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify 1835where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could 1836occur. 1837 1838Environmental conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical 1839wind shear along the path of the hurricane should allow for at least 1840steady intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. With the small 1841inner core and favorable conditions, rapid strengthening also 1842remains a possibility, although not likely in the very short term 1843given the concentric eyewall structure. The updated NHC intensity 1844forecast calls for Dorian to become a major hurricane on Friday, and 1845shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous forecast. 1846The official forecast is at the upper end of the guidance, in best 1847agreement with the HCCA and HWRF models. 1848 1849Key Messages: 1850 18511. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 1852winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern 1853Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or 1854Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and 1855listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 1856 18572. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge 1858along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early 1859next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest 1860storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan 1861in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and 1862listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 1863 18643. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida 1865east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week 1866continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where 1867the strongest winds will occur. 1868 18694. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected 1870to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the 1871southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next 1872week. 1873 1874 1875FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1876 1877INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 1878 12H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 1879 24H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 1880 36H 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 1881 48H 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 1882 72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 1883 96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 1884120H 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 1885 1886$$ 1887Forecaster Brown 1888 1889 1890 1891------------=_1567090107-110607-396 1892Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1893Content-Disposition: inline 1894Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1895 1896= = = == = = 1897WTNT45 KNHC 292047 1898TCDAT5 1899 1900Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 22 1901NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1902500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 1903 1904There has been little overall change in the structure of Dorian 1905today. The hurricane has several well-defined bands of convection 1906wrapping into the center and a small central dense overcast. The 1907small eye has not been as apparent in geostationary satellite 1908imagery this afternoon, but the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 1909reported concentric eyewall diameters of 4 and 22 n mi several 1910hours ago. The latest satellite intensity estimates still support 1911an initial intensity of 75 kt, which is also in line with the 1912earlier SFMR data from the aircraft. The next reconnaissance 1913aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane this evening. 1914 1915Dorian is moving northwestward or 325 at 11 kt. The hurricane 1916should continue moving northwestward tonight between an upper-level 1917low just to the west of Dorian and a mid-level ridge near Bermuda. 1918On Friday, the ridge is forecast to begin building westward to the 1919north of the cyclone, and this pattern is expected to cause the 1920hurricane to turn west-northwestward. A west-northwestward to 1921westward motion should then continue into the weekend with Dorian 1922moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida 1923peninsula. The guidance envelope has nudged southward this cycle, 1924with the ECMWF and HMON along the southern side, and the GFS 1925bracketing the northern side. There has also been an increase in 1926along-track spread or speed differences with day 5 positions among 1927the dynamical models ranging from near the northwestern Bahamas to 1928the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This appears to be the result of 1929differences in the models' depiction of the strength or lack thereof 1930of the western portion of the ridge by day 5. The new NHC track 1931forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but 1932has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous 1933advisory at 96 and 120 hours. Users are reminded to not focus on 1934the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 1935are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively. 1936 1937The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. 1938Dorian will be moving through a favorable environment of low 1939vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. This should 1940allow for at least steady intensification, and Dorian is forecast to 1941become major hurricane on Friday. Dorian is predicted to remain a 1942dangerous hurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period. 1943The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper end of the 1944guidance in best agreement with the HWRF and FSSE models. 1945 1946The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings 1947across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States. 1948Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in 1949the Bahamas. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing, 1950and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC 1951model cycle. 1952 1953Key Messages: 1954 19551. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 1956winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern 1957Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or 1958Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and 1959listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 1960 19612. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge 1962along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early 1963next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest 1964storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan 1965in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and 1966listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 1967 19683. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida 1969east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week 1970continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where 1971the strongest winds will occur. 1972 19734. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected 1974to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the 1975southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next 1976week. 1977 1978 1979FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1980 1981INIT 29/2100Z 22.5N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 1982 12H 30/0600Z 23.8N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 1983 24H 30/1800Z 25.2N 70.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 1984 36H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 1985 48H 31/1800Z 26.5N 74.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 1986 72H 01/1800Z 27.0N 77.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 1987 96H 02/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 1988120H 03/1800Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 1989 1990$$ 1991Forecaster Brown 1992 1993 1994 1995------------=_1567111641-110607-516 1996Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1997Content-Disposition: inline 1998Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1999 2000= = = == = = 2001WTNT45 KNHC 300256 2002TCDAT5 2003 2004Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 23 2005NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 20061100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 2007 2008The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been 2009tag-teaming the reconaissance of Dorian tonight, providing useful 2010information about what has changed during the past several hours. 2011They found the pressure has dropped to about 977 mb, with recent 2012SFMR data of about 90 kt (also supported by flight-level winds). 2013These data are also consistent with satellite imagery that show 2014Dorian with a larger, deeper central dense overcast than this 2015afternoon. Thus the wind speed is raised to 90 kt on this advisory. 2016 2017The initial motion is about the same as before, 325/10 kt. Dorian 2018is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest on Saturday, 2019and westward on Sunday due to a building ridge over the southwestern 2020Atlantic. While the model guidance generally shows this scenario in 2021a broad sense, there are substantial timing differences among the 2022guidance. The source of the uncertainty can be attributed to 2023challenges in forecasting the strength and orientation of the 2024mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States in a few days, 2025along with exactly where and how large Dorian is by then. As you 2026can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder 2027the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path 2028of the hurricane. There's been a notable trend on this model cycle 2029toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be 2030seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is 2031shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the 2032previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the 2033models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets 2034incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus 2035on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 2036and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively. 2037 2038There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the 2039south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight's G-IV mission, 2040which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day. 2041As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop 2042somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level 2043low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be 2044pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air 2045entrainment. All these changes should promote intensification 2046while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the 2047intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with 2048the corrected-consensus guidance. Unfortunately, I don't see any 2049large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an 2050extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days. 2051 2052Key Messages: 2053 20541. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 2055winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern 2056Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued on Friday. Residents 2057should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given 2058by local emergency officials. 2059 20602. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge 2061along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early 2062next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest 2063storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan 2064in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and 2065listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2066 20673. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida 2068east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week 2069continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where 2070the strongest winds will occur. 2071 20724. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected 2073to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the 2074southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next 2075week. 2076 2077 2078FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2079 2080INIT 30/0300Z 23.3N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 2081 12H 30/1200Z 24.3N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 2082 24H 31/0000Z 25.4N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 2083 36H 31/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 2084 48H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 2085 72H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 2086 96H 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 2087120H 04/0000Z 27.5N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 2088 2089$$ 2090Forecaster Blake 2091 2092 2093 2094------------=_1567133782-110607-714 2095Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2096Content-Disposition: inline 2097Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2098 2099= = = == = = 2100WTNT45 KNHC 300854 2101TCDAT5 2102 2103Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 24 2104NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 2105500 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 2106 2107There hasn't been a lot of new data since the Hurricane Hunter 2108planes departed Dorian several hours ago. The convective pattern 2109on infrared satellite imagery has been nearly steady state, 2110although the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB rose to 2111T5.0/90 kt. These estimates, combined with the earlier aircraft 2112data, support maintaining an initial intensity of 90 kt. 2113 2114Dorian's heading is very gradually turning toward the left, with 2115the latest estimate northwestward, or 320 degrees at 10 kt. Dorian 2116is now being steered between a mid-tropospheric high centered near 2117Bermuda and a mid-/upper-level low located over the Bahamas. The 2118high is expected to expand westward, with a blocking ridge becoming 2119established over the western Atlantic during the next several days. 2120With the exception of COAMPS-TC and HMON, the other reliable models 2121are in excellent agreement through day 3, with Dorian turning 2122westward south of the ridge and moving near or over the 2123northernmost islands in the Bahamas Sunday and Monday. After day 21243, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and 2125Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the 2126Florida peninsula. There is more spread among the deterministic 2127models and their ensemble members during that time, with 2128disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn 2129northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. That being said, the 2130tracks of the simple and corrected consensus models on this cycle 2131did not warrant much change to the official NHC forecast, with 2132perhaps just a slight southward adjustment on days 3 and 4. The 2133biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near 2134Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a 2135prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, 2136and heavy rainfall. 2137 2138The upper-level low to the west of Dorian continues to impart some 2139southwesterly shear over the hurricane, which has prevented it from 2140strengthening rapidly. However, Dorian is expected to enter a more 2141favorable upper-level environment during the next 24 hours, which 2142should allow its structure to become more well developed. Although 2143overall the environment ahead of the storm appears conducive for 2144strengthening, some models (in particular the ECMWF) suggest that 2145some northerly shear could come into play while Dorian moves 2146through the northwestern Bahamas, and for that reason the NHC 2147official intensity forecast is not quite as bullish as the HCCA, 2148Florida State Superensemble, and HWRF models. Still, Dorian is 2149forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane later and maintain 2150that status as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the 2151Florida peninsula. 2152 2153 2154Key Messages: 2155 21561. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, 2157where the risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 2158winds this weekend has continued to increase. Residents should 2159begin to execute their hurricane plans and listen to advice given 2160by local emergency officials. 2161 21622. There is an increasing likelihood of a prolonged period of 2163hazardous weather conditions that could last for a couple of days 2164in parts of Florida early next week. 2165 21663. The risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the 2167Florida east coast has increased, although it is too soon to 2168determine where the highest storm surge will occur. The risk of 2169devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and 2170peninsula early next week has also increased, although it is too 2171soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. Residents 2172should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a 2173hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local 2174emergency officials. 2175 21764. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected 2177to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the 2178southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next 2179week. 2180 2181 2182FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2183 2184INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 2185 12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 2186 24H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 2187 36H 31/1800Z 26.1N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 2188 48H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 2189 72H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 2190 96H 03/0600Z 26.9N 80.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 2191120H 04/0600Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 2192 2193$$ 2194Forecaster Berg 2195 2196 2197 2198------------=_1567155298-110607-856 2199Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2200Content-Disposition: inline 2201Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2202 2203= = = == = = 2204WTNT45 KNHC 301449 2205TCDAT5 2206 2207Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 25 2208NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 22091100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 2210 2211Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian 2212this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks 2213at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure 2214has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the 2215initial intensity has been set to 95 kt. The upper-low currently 2216over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving 2217away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is 2218evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is 2219becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data 2220from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for 2221additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an 2222extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional 2223strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and 2224the Florida peninsula. 2225 2226Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving 2227toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over 2228Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the 2229western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should 2230be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward 2231the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of 2232the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the 2233steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down 2234considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases 2235the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day 2236period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind, 2237storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very 2238consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous 2239NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus, 2240and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. 2241 2242Key Messages: 2243 22441. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force 2245winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a 2246hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their 2247hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency 2248officials. 2249 22502. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force 2251winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early 2252next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm 2253surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane 2254plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and 2255listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2256 22573. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is 2258likely in portions of Florida into next week, including the 2259possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the 2260Florida peninsula. 2261 22624. Heavy rains are expected over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, 2263and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend into 2264the middle of next week. 2265 2266FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2267 2268INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 2269 12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 2270 24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 2271 36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 2272 48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 2273 72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 2274 96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 2275120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 2276 2277$$ 2278Forecaster Avila 2279 2280 2281 2282------------=_1567176597-110607-959 2283Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2284Content-Disposition: inline 2285Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2286 2287= = = == = = 2288WTNT45 KNHC 302050 2289TCDAT5 2290 2291Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 26 2292NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 2293500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 2294 2295High resolution satellite images show that Dorian's cloud pattern 2296has become much better organized, with a distinct eye surrounded by 2297a ring of very deep convection and fair upper-level outflow. 2298Satellite intensity estimates, both objectivs from CIMMS and 2299subjective from TAFB and SAB, are in good agreement with the 100-kt 2300winds recently measured by a reconnaissance aircraft. This is the 2301intensity assigned to Dorian in this advisory. 2302 2303Since the upper-level environment is already becoming more favorable 2304for intensification and Dorian will be over high sea surface 2305temperatures, the NHC forecast calls for additional intensification. 2306Dorian is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as 2307it moves through the northwestern Bahamas and near the east coast of 2308the Florida peninsula in about 2 to 4 days. 2309 2310The ridge over the western Atlantic appears to be already building 2311to the north of Dorian and is beginning to force the hurricane on a 2312more west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge is 2313forecast to build even more and steer Dorian on a westward track for 2314the next 3 to 4 days. However, the steering currents will then 2315weaken, and this should result in a decrease in the hurricane's 2316forward speed. Given the collapse of the steering currents, the 2317track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly 2318uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the 2319core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep 2320it near the coast, or offshore. The models have not been very 2321consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward 2322turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could 2323occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland. Given 2324this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little 2325to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for 2326additional adjustements to the left or right depending on future 2327model trends. 2328 2329Based on the new forecast, a hurricane warning has been issued for 2330poertions of the northwest Bahamas. However, given the slower 2331forecast speed of Dorian, it is too soon to issue and watches for 2332the Florida coast at this time. 2333 2334Key Messages: 2335 23361. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force 2337winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a 2338hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their 2339hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency 2340officials. 2341 23422. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force 2343winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early 2344next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn 2345northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where 2346the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their 2347hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation 2348zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2349 23503. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is 2351possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the 2352possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the 2353Florida peninsula. 2354 23554. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are 2356expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the 2357southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week. 2358 2359FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2360 2361INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 70.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 2362 12H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 2363 24H 31/1800Z 26.2N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 2364 36H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 2365 48H 01/1800Z 26.8N 76.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 2366 72H 02/1800Z 27.0N 78.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 2367 96H 03/1800Z 27.5N 80.4W 120 KT 140 MPH...NEAR FL EAST COAST 2368120H 04/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 2369 2370$$ 2371Forecaster Avila 2372 2373 2374 2375------------=_1567198231-110607-1087 2376Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2377Content-Disposition: inline 2378Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2379 2380= = = == = = 2381WTNT45 KNHC 310240 2382TCDAT5 2383 2384Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 27 2385NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 23861100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 2387 2388The cloud pattern of Dorian has become quite impressive in infrared 2389satellite imagery this evening. The eye has become very distinct 2390and is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep convection. The 2391upper-level outflow has also improved. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter 2392aircraft this evening has measured peak SFMR winds of 119 kt, and a 2393dropsonde dropped in the northeastern eyewall had mean winds in the 2394lowest 150 m that also supported winds of 118 kt, so the initial 2395wind speed has been raised to 120 kt. The latest center drop 2396indicates a minimum pressure of around 948 mb, down 22 mb since this 2397afternoon. Since Dorian will be traversing SSTs of around 29C and 2398remain in a low shear environment, the current intensification phase 2399may not be over. The NHC forecast is above the guidance and calls 2400for some additional strengthening in the short-term. After that, 2401fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement 2402cycles that are difficult to predict. Although some decrease in 2403wind speed could occur when Dorian slows down and causes some 2404upwelling, all indications are that Dorian will remain an extremely 2405powerful hurricane for the next several days. 2406 2407The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 24089 kt. The ridge to the north of Dorian is expected to build during 2409the next 24 hours, and this should cause Dorian's heading to bend 2410westward toward the northwestern Bahamas. After 48 hours, the 2411global models show an erosion of the western portion of the ridge, 2412which is expected to cause the steering currents to collapse and the 2413hurricane to slow down considerably by day 3. Later in the period, 2414the models have again trended to a more significant weakness in the 2415ridge which allows Dorian to turn northwestward, then northward 2416near the east coast of Florida. Although the deterministic 2417versions of the global models have trended northeastward again, the 2418GFS and UKMET ensemble means are farther to the left. The 2419updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward and lies 2420between the multi-model consensus aids and the aforementioned 2421ensemble means. Although the official forecast track has been 2422nudged northeastward to near the east coast of Florida the risk of 2423significant impacts over much of the Florida peninsula remains high. 2424 2425 2426Key Messages: 2427 24281. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and 2429devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the 2430northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2431Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to advice 2432given by local emergency officials. 2433 24342. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force 2435winds are possible along portions of the Florida east coast by early 2436next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn 2437northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where 2438the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their 2439hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation 2440zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2441 24423. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds, and rainfall is 2443possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the 2444possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the 2445Florida peninsula. 2446 24474. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are 2448expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the 2449southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week. 2450 2451 2452FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2453 2454INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 2455 12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 2456 24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 2457 36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 2458 48H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 2459 72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 2460 96H 04/0000Z 28.3N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 2461120H 05/0000Z 30.8N 81.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 2462 2463$$ 2464Forecaster Brown 2465 2466 2467 2468------------=_1567219264-110607-1255 2469Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2470Content-Disposition: inline 2471Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2472 2473= = = == = = 2474WTNT45 KNHC 310848 2475TCDAT5 2476 2477Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 28 2478NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 2479500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 2480 2481Dorian continues to look impressive in satellite imagery this 2482morning, with a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding 2483a 10-15 n mi wide eye. There have been no new aircraft data from 2484the storm since the last advisory. However, the satellite 2485appearance has changed little since the aircraft were last in the 2486storm, and the various subjective and objective satellite intensity 2487estimates have changed little over the past several hours. Based on 2488this, the initial intensity remains 120 kt. 2489 2490The initial motion is now 290/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical 2491ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west- 2492northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward 2493speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the 2494Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the 2495track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the 2496ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models. The track 2497forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h. The global 2498models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON 2499models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none 2500of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the 2501UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida 2502peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. The new 2503track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of 2504the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the 2505various consensus models. Additional adjustments to the forecast 2506track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue. 2507It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude 2508Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of 2509the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also, 2510significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore. 2511 2512Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the 2513next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain 2514a powerful hurricane during this time. The new intensity forecast 2515calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow 2516weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance. During 2517this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to- 2518forecast eyewall replacement cycles. Late in the forecast period, 2519increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to 2520cause some weakening. 2521 2522 2523Key Messages: 2524 25251. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and 2526devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the 2527northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand 2528Bahama Island. A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas, 2529and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency 2530officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today. 2531 25322. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force 2533winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast 2534by the early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is 2535forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too 2536soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will 2537occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know 2538if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice 2539given by local emergency officials. 2540 25413. The risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is 2542increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during 2543the middle of next week. Residents in those areas should continue 2544to monitor the progress of Dorian. 2545 25464. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are 2547expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the 2548southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week. 2549 2550 2551FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2552 2553INIT 31/0900Z 25.8N 72.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 2554 12H 31/1800Z 26.1N 74.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 2555 24H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 2556 36H 01/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 2557 48H 02/0600Z 26.9N 78.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 2558 72H 03/0600Z 27.5N 79.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 2559 96H 04/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 2560120H 05/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 2561 2562$$ 2563Forecaster Beven 2564 2565 2566 2567------------=_1567241349-110607-1317 2568Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2569Content-Disposition: inline 2570Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2571 2572= = = == = = 2573WTNT45 KNHC 311456 2574TCDAT5 2575 2576Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 29 2577NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 25781100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 2579 2580Dorian's satellite presentation is outstanding with a distinct eye 2581of about 15 n mi in diameter. Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane 2582Hunter planes have been penetrating the eye this morning and based 2583on a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity 2584has been adjusted upward to 130 kt in this advisory. Dorian is 2585forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm waters, which is 2586like high octane-fuel for hurricanes. The combination of the warm 2587ocean and the prevailing low shear along Dorian's path should favor 2588some additional strengthening, but most likely the hurricane will 2589experience some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement 2590cycles that are difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the 2591hurricane begins to gain in latitude a gradual weakening is 2592anticipated. 2593 2594Plane fixes indicate that Dorian is moving toward the west or 280 2595degrees at 7 kt, steered by weak flow to the south of the ridge 2596of high pressure over the western Atlantic. Most of the global 2597models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the 2598eastern United States beyond 2 days. This steering flow would 2599typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and 2600north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location 2601and timing of this northward turn. Although the latest guidance 2602has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are 2603still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the 2604northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the 2605track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one, 2606and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the 2607guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the 2608track during future forecast cycles. 2609 2610Key Messages: 2611 26121. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and 2613devastating hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the 2614northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand 2615Bahama Island. A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas, 2616and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency 2617officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today. 2618 26192. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds 2620are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the 2621early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to 2622slow down and turn northward near or just offshore of the coast, it 2623is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds 2624could occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, 2625know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to 2626advice given by local emergency officials. 2627 26283. The risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge is increasing 2629along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina 2630during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should 2631continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 2632 26334. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are 2634expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the 2635southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week. 2636 2637FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2638 2639INIT 31/1500Z 26.0N 73.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 2640 12H 01/0000Z 26.2N 74.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 2641 24H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 2642 36H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 2643 48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 78.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 2644 72H 03/1200Z 28.0N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 2645 96H 04/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 2646120H 05/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 2647 2648$$ 2649Forecaster Avila 2650 2651 2652 2653------------=_1567263371-110607-1408 2654Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2655Content-Disposition: inline 2656Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2657 2658= = = == = = 2659WTNT45 KNHC 312052 2660TCDAT5 2661 2662Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 30 2663NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 2664500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 2665 2666Dorian's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding. The 2667eye has remained very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of very 2668deep convection. The latest information from the Air Force plane 2669before it departed Dorian supports keeping an initial intensity of 2670130 kt. Dorian is forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm 2671waters, and with the prevailing low shear along the hurricane's 2672path, some additional strengthening is possible during the next day 2673or so. Most likely, however, the hurricane will experience some 2674fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles that are 2675difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the hurricane begins to gain 2676latitude and encounters increasing shear, gradual weakening is 2677anticipated, but Dorian will remain a dangerous hurricane through 5 2678days. 2679 2680The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 2681degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the weak flow to 2682the south of the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. 2683In about a day or two, most of the global models shift the high 2684eastward and deepen a trough over the eastern United States. 2685Consequently, the steering currents should collapse and Dorian 2686is anticipated to drift toward the northwest and north-northwest 2687while is moving over the northwestern Bahamas and near the east 2688coast of Florida. After that time, the hurricane should begin to 2689move a little faster northward as the trough over the eastern U.S 2690deepens and should then steer the hurricane toward the northeast by 2691the end of the forecast period. 2692 2693The guidance has not changed significantly since the earlier run, so 2694it has not been necessary to adjust the NHC forecast in this 2695advisory. The uncertainty in the track is high while the hurricane 2696is moving slowly across the northwestern Bahamas and near the east 2697coast of Florida. Any deviation of Dorian's core to the left would 2698result in an increase in the winds along the east coast of Florida. 2699 2700Given that the area of tropical storm force winds could expand, and 2701taking into account the uncertainty in the track forecast, a 2702tropical storm watch was issued for the east of Florida from 2703Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet. 2704 2705Key Messages: 2706 27071. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating 2708hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening 2709flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama 2710Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for 2711these areas. 2712 27132. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida 2714east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward 2715as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and 2716dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of 2717the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week. 2718Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they 2719are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by 2720local emergency officials. 2721 27223. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm 2723surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North 2724Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas 2725should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 2726 27274. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are 2728possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States 2729from Sunday through much of next week. 2730 2731FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2732 2733INIT 31/2100Z 26.2N 74.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 2734 12H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 2735 24H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 2736 36H 02/0600Z 26.8N 78.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 2737 48H 02/1800Z 27.2N 78.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 2738 72H 03/1800Z 28.3N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 2739 96H 04/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 2740120H 05/1800Z 34.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 2741 2742$$ 2743Forecaster Avila/Brennan 2744 2745 2746 2747------------=_1567284763-110607-1528 2748Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2749Content-Disposition: inline 2750Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2751 2752= = = == = = 2753WTNT45 KNHC 010256 2754TCDAT5 2755 2756Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 31 2757NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 27581100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 2759 2760Data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 2761that Dorian remains a very powerful hurricane, and the satellite 2762presentation is still quite impressive with a very stable, 2763well-defined eye. There has been no evidence of concentric eyewalls 2764in aircraft or microwave data, which is somewhat surprising given 2765that the intensity has been at category 4 strength for 24 hours. 2766Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an 2767initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface 2768wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based 2769on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent 2770strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind 2771reductions. 2772 2773Dorian is forecast to continue moving over very warm waters and 2774into a low-shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, so some 2775additional strengthening is possible. Difficult-to-predict 2776eyewall cycles, however, are likely to begin at some point within 2777the next day or so and could cause fluctuations in intensity. After 277872 hours, increasing southerly shear is likely to produce gradual 2779weakening, but Dorian is foreast to remain a dangerous hurricane 2780through the forecast period. 2781 2782The hurricane is moving westward or 280/7 kt. A high pressure ridge 2783to the north of Dorian is predicted to remain intact into early 2784Sunday, and the hurricane should continue westward. By late Sunday, 2785the dynamical models erode the western portion of the ridge, which 2786should cause the hurricane to slow down and become nearly stationary 2787over the northwestern Bahamas in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, 2788the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced, and Dorian is 2789expected to turn northwestward, and eventually northeastward near 2790the southeastern United States coast. Although there is general 2791agreement on this overall scenario, there is still considerable 2792spread on how close the storm will track to the east coast of 2793Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States. The latest 2794HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of 2795central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to 2796the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted 2797west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to 2798that forecast was made. Although the exact NHC track forecast lies 2799east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even 2800a landfall remain a possibility. Since the updated track was 2801slightly slower than the previous advisory, no additional watches 2802are needed for Florida at this time. 2803 2804Key Messages: 2805 28061. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating 2807hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening 2808flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama 2809Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for 2810these areas. 2811 28122. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida 2813east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward 2814as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and 2815dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of 2816the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week. 2817Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they 2818are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by 2819local emergency officials. 2820 28213. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm 2822surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North 2823Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas 2824should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 2825 28264. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are 2827possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States 2828from Monday through Thursday. 2829 2830 2831FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2832 2833INIT 01/0300Z 26.3N 75.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 2834 12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 2835 24H 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 2836 36H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 2837 48H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 2838 72H 04/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 2839 96H 05/0000Z 31.1N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 2840120H 06/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 2841 2842$$ 2843Forecaster Brown 2844 2845 2846 2847------------=_1567306581-110607-1645 2848Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2849Content-Disposition: inline 2850Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2851 2852= = = == = = 2853WTNT45 KNHC 010859 2854TCDAT5 2855 2856Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 32 2857NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 2858500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 2859 2860Dorian continues to exhibit a well-defined eye surrounded by very 2861cold cloud tops on satellite images. Observations from an Air 2862Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft from several hours ago indicated 2863that the intensity was still near 130 kt, and since the cloud 2864pattern remains very impressive, it is assumed that Dorian has at 2865least maintained that strength through the present time. The 2866hurricane will remain in a fairly low-shear environment for the 2867next few days, however since it is forecast to move quite slowly 2868over the shallow waters of the northwesternnmost Bahamas through 2869Monday, this would likely result in less available oceanic heat 2870content. Therefore, a very slow weakening is anticipated to 2871commence after 12 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is 2872near the high end of the numerical guidance suite. 2873 2874The hurricane continues moving westward, or about 280/7 kt. A high 2875pressure ridge to the north of Dorian should maintain this westward 2876movement through today. By tonight, the global models show the 2877ridge weakening, and this evolution should result in a slowing of 2878the forward speed, with the hurricane becoming nearly stationary 2879around 48 hours. In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF 2880track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next 2881couple of days, and is the southwesternmost model through 48 hours. 2882As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little 2883west during that time frame. In 2 to 4 days, Dorian should turn 2884northward in response to a trough over the eastern United States. 2885By the end of the period, the flow on the south side of the trough 2886should cause the cyclone to move northeastward near the Carolinas. 2887 2888The westward shift of the NHC track within the first 48 hours 2889necessitates the change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical 2890Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast. Although 2891the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not 2892focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a 2893distinct possibility. 2894 2895 2896Key Messages: 2897 28981. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating 2899hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing 2900life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and 2901Grand Bahama through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect 2902for these areas. 2903 29042. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for a portion of the 2905Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn 2906northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge 2907and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along 2908portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week. 2909Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they 2910are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by 2911local emergency officials. 2912 29133. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm 2914surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North 2915Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue 2916to monitor the progress of Dorian. 2917 29184. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, 2919are possible over coastal sections of the southeast and lower 2920mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week. 2921 2922 2923FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2924 2925INIT 01/0900Z 26.4N 76.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 2926 12H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 2927 24H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 2928 36H 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 2929 48H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 2930 72H 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 2931 96H 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 2932120H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 2933 2934$$ 2935Forecaster Pasch 2936 2937 2938 2939------------=_1567328365-110607-1724 2940Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2941Content-Disposition: inline 2942Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2943 2944= = = == = = 2945WTNT45 KNHC 011457 2946TCDAT5 2947 2948Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 33 2949NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 29501100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 2951 2952Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance planes penetrated the distinct 2953eye of Dorian, and found that the hurricane has become extremely 2954intense with a stadium effect in the eye. The NOAA plane reported a 2955peak flight-level wind of 159 kt, while the SFMR from both planes 2956have measured winds between 155 and 170 kt. A dropsonde from the 2957NOAA plane measured a wind gust of 176 kt at the surface. A blend of 2958these measurements yield to an initial intensity of 155 kt, making 2959Dorian the strongest hurricane on record in the northwestern 2960Bahamas. 2961 2962For the next few days, Dorian should experience some fluctuations in 2963intensity, and in addition to eyewall replacement cyclone, the 2964interaction with the northwestern Bahamas should weaken the 2965hurricane slightly. After 3 days, as Dorian moves northward along 2966or offshore of southeast United States coast, the shear is forecast 2967to increase, resulting in a more distinct gradual weakening. 2968 2969Reconnaissance plane and satellite fixes indicate that Dorian, as 2970anticipated, has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270 2971degrees at 6 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and Dorian is 2972expected to slow down even more, prolonging its catastrophic effects 2973in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast calls for a slow west 2974to west-northwest motion during the next 48 hours, with a turn to 2975the north and an increase in forward speed as the mid-level trough 2976along the eastern United States deepens and becomes the dominant 2977steering feature. The current forecast is only a few miles west of 2978the previous one and is basically on top of the multi-model 2979consensus. Both the deterministic and consensus tracks have shown 2980the usual variability to the right or to the left from run to run, 2981but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn northward 2982offshore but very close to the Florida peninsula. 2983 2984Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated 2985increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Watch and Storm 2986Surge Watch have been issued for a portion of the east Florida 2987coast. It is emphasized that although the official track forecast 2988does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. A 2989small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense 2990core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto the 2991coast. 2992 2993Key Messages: 2994 29951. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will 2996affect the Abaco Islands today. Everyone there should take immediate 2997shelter and not venture into the eye. These catastrophic conditions 2998are likely on Grand Bahama Island later today or tonight, and 2999efforts to protect life and property there should be rushed to 3000completion. 3001 30022. Storm surge and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are 3003in effect for portions of the Florida east coast. Life-threatening 3004storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are possible along 3005portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, as only a 3006slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring 3007the core of Dorian near or over the coast. Residents should listen 3008to advice given by local emergency officials. 3009 30103. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous 3011storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North 3012Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue 3013to monitor the progress of Dorian. 3014 30154. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, 3016are possible over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal 3017sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the 3018United States through late this week. 3019 3020FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3021 3022INIT 01/1500Z 26.5N 76.8W 155 KT 180 MPH 3023 12H 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.7W 150 KT 175 MPH 3024 24H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 3025 36H 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 3026 48H 03/1200Z 27.4N 79.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 3027 72H 04/1200Z 29.7N 80.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 3028 96H 05/1200Z 32.5N 79.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 3029120H 06/1200Z 35.5N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 3030 3031$$ 3032Forecaster Avila 3033 3034 3035 3036------------=_1567349845-110607-1829 3037Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3038Content-Disposition: inline 3039Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3040 3041= = = == = = 3042WTNT45 KNHC 012056 3043TCDAT5 3044 3045Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 34 3046NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 3047500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 3048 3049The distinct eye of powerful Hurricane Dorian is moving over 3050Great Abaco. The latest wind and pressure data from an Air Force 3051reconnaissance plane just before the eye hit the island indicated 3052that the winds reached 160 kt, which is the initial intensity for 3053this advisory. It is not very often that we measure such strong 3054winds. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 910 mb. 3055 3056The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is 3057possibly occurring. The effect of the island terrain and the 3058eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations 3059in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will 3060continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time. After 3 3061days, a more definite weakening trend should begin as the hurricane 3062encounters stronger shear. Dorian however, it is forecast to remain 3063a hurricane for the next 5 days. 3064 3065Dorian has slowed down even more and is now moving toward the west 3066or 270 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and 3067Dorian is expected to slow down a little more, prolonging its 3068catastrophic effects in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast 3069calls for a slow west to west-northwest motion during the next 48 3070hours. A turn to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in 3071forward speed is expected thereafter, as the mid-level trough over 3072the eastern United States deepens. The current forecast is not very 3073different from the previous one, and it is very close to the 3074multi-model consensus TVCA. Both the deterministic and consensus 3075tracks have shown the usual variability to the right or to the left 3076from run to run, but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn 3077northward offshore but dangerously close to the Florida peninsula. 3078 3079Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated 3080increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Warning and Storm 3081Surge Warning have been issued for a portion of the Florida east 3082coast. It is once again emphasized that although the official track 3083forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact 3084track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the 3085intense core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto 3086the Florida coast. 3087 3088Key Messages: 3089 30901. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will 3091affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island tonight. Everyone 3092there should take immediate shelter and not venture into the eye. 3093 30942. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds 3095are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through 3096mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only 3097a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring 3098the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents 3099should listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3100 31013. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous 3102storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, North 3103Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue 3104to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by 3105local emergency officials. 3106 31074. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, 3108are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal 3109sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the 3110United States through late this week. 3111 3112FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3113 3114INIT 01/2100Z 26.6N 77.3W 160 KT 185 MPH 3115 12H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 155 KT 180 MPH 3116 24H 02/1800Z 26.8N 78.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 3117 36H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 3118 48H 03/1800Z 27.7N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 3119 72H 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 3120 96H 05/1800Z 33.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 3121120H 06/1800Z 36.5N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 3122 3123$$ 3124Forecaster Avila 3125 3126 3127 3128------------=_1567371417-110607-1949 3129Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3130Content-Disposition: inline 3131Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3132 3133= = = == = = 3134WTNT45 KNHC 020259 3135TCDAT5 3136 3137Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 35 3138NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 31391100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 3140 3141Dorian remains an incredibly powerful hurricane and it is currently 3142making landfall on the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island. 3143Satellite images show an symmetrical cyclone with a circular 10 n mi 3144diameter eye and intense eyewall convection with lots of lightning 3145being detected. Doppler radar data from Miami and the Bahamas show 3146that Dorian has developed concentric eyewalls, and this feature is 3147also noted by a double wind maximum that is evident in data from the 3148Air Force Hurricane Hunters. The initial intensity of Dorian is set 3149at 155 kt based mostly on the SFMR winds from the aircraft. The 3150aircraft data also indicated that the radii of tropical-storm-force 3151winds are a little larger than they were earlier today. 3152 3153Dorian is still moving slowly westward at about 5 kt. The ridge to 3154the north of Dorian is gradually weakening and shifting eastward in 3155response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is moving across the 3156eastern U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause 3157Dorian to slow down even more and perhaps stall, before it turns to 3158the northwest late Monday or early Tuesday. This expected slow 3159motion will likely be devastating to the Great Abaco and Grand 3160Bahama Islands since it would prolong the catastrophic winds, storm 3161surge, and rainfall over those areas. The timing of the northwest 3162or north turn is very critical in determining how close Dorian will 3163get to the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. In general, 3164the track models have changed little from the previous cycle, and 3165the NHC forecast continues to show the core of Dorian very near, but 3166offshore, of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. The 3167hurricane is then expected to track near the Georgia and Carolina 3168coasts late this week. This forecast is in best agreement with the 3169various consensus models, which typically have the lowest errors. It 3170is once again emphasized that although the official track forecast 3171does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. 3172A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense 3173core of the hurricane and its dangerous winds closer to or onto the 3174Florida coast. 3175 3176Category 5 hurricanes like Dorian usually don't hold that intensity 3177for very long, and it is expected that Dorian will weaken slowly 3178during the next few days. However, the observed eyewall replacement 3179cycle will likely cause fluctuations in strength, both up and down, 3180while the system is near Florida. The models show an increase in 3181shear when Dorian tracks near Georgia and the Carolinas, which 3182should cause more notable weakening. This forecast is near the 3183high end of the latest model guidance. 3184 3185Based on this forecast, the hurricane watch has been extended 3186northward to the Florida-Georgia line. 3187 3188 3189Key Messages: 3190 31911. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will 3192affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island for several more 3193hours. Everyone there should take immediate shelter and not venture 3194into the eye. 3195 31962. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds 3197are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through 3198mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only 3199a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring 3200the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents 3201should listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3202 32033. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous 3204storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North 3205Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue 3206to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by 3207local emergency officials. 3208 32094. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, 3210are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal 3211sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the 3212United States through late this week. 3213 3214 3215FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3216 3217INIT 02/0300Z 26.6N 77.9W 155 KT 180 MPH 3218 12H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 3219 24H 03/0000Z 26.9N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 3220 36H 03/1200Z 27.3N 79.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 3221 48H 04/0000Z 28.2N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 3222 72H 05/0000Z 30.6N 80.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 3223 96H 06/0000Z 33.5N 77.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 3224120H 07/0000Z 37.5N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 3225 3226$$ 3227Forecaster Cangialosi 3228 3229 3230 3231------------=_1567393175-110607-2096 3232Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3233Content-Disposition: inline 3234Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3235 3236= = = == = = 3237WTNT45 KNHC 020852 3238TCDAT5 3239 3240Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 36 3241NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 3242500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 3243 3244Satellite imagery continues to show that Dorian has an extremely 3245well-defined eye embedded within very cold cloud tops. The 3246diameter of the eye appears to have expanded to near 20 n mi, and 3247radar data, especially from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology 3248radar, show that there are concentric eyewalls. The hurricane also 3249continues to exhibit strong upper-tropospheric outflow. The initial 3250intensity estimate has been reduced to 145 kt, which lies between 3251earlier Hurricane Hunter estimates and satellite intensity estimates 3252from TAFB and SAB. This lowering of intensity is consistent with 3253the development of a concentric eyewall. During the next few days, 3254Dorian should be encountering some increase in shear, which will 3255likely result in weakening. However it is anticipated that the 3256system will remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next several 3257days. The official intensity forecast lies between the 3258statistical-dynamical guidance and the corrected multi-model 3259consensus. 3260 3261Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a 3262standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion 3263of 270/1 kt. The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the 3264hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed. 3265Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the 3266ridge will develop along 75W-80W. This would likely cause Dorian to 3267move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness. 3268Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate 3269northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric 3270trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous 3271one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Although 3272the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the 3273Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to 3274deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast. 3275Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track. 3276 3277 3278Key Messages: 3279 32801. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will 3281continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight. 3282Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the 3283eye. 3284 32852. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds 3286are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through 3287mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only 3288a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring 3289the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents 3290should listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3291 32923. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous 3293storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North 3294Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue 3295to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by 3296local emergency officials. 3297 32984. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, 3299are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal 3300sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the 3301United States into Friday. 3302 3303 3304FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3305 3306INIT 02/0900Z 26.6N 78.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 3307 12H 02/1800Z 26.7N 78.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 3308 24H 03/0600Z 26.9N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 3309 36H 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 3310 48H 04/0600Z 28.7N 80.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 3311 72H 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 3312 96H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 3313120H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 3314 3315$$ 3316Forecaster Pasch 3317 3318 3319 3320------------=_1567414352-110607-2232 3321Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3322Content-Disposition: inline 3323Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3324 3325= = = == = = 3326WTNT45 KNHC 021451 3327TCDAT5 3328 3329Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 37 3330NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 33311100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 3332 3333Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly 3334over Grand Bahama Island this morning. The hurricane remains quite 3335symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is 3336somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar 3337imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and 3338TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has 3339been reduced to 135 kt. As Dorian moves very slowly during the 3340next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the 3341Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the 3342hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in 3343southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind 3344speed. However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful 3345hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast. 3346The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance 3347during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus 3348model later in the period. 3349 3350As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened 3351and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning. 3352The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward 3353over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of 3354devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late 3355Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and 3356Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida. 3357By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn 3358ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. The overall track envelope 3359has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC 3360forecast was required. 3361 3362It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the 3363left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely 3364dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the 3365hurricane warning area. In addition, Dorian's wind field is 3366predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer 3367to the east coast of Florida even if the track does change. 3368 3369Key Messages: 3370 33711. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will 3372continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight. 3373Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the 3374eye. 3375 33762. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds 3377are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and Georgia 3378coast, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water 3379levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong 3380winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local 3381emergency officials. 3382 33833. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 3384winds continues to increase along the coasts of South Carolina and 3385North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given 3386by local emergency officials. 3387 33884. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, 3389are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal 3390sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the 3391United States into Friday. 3392 3393FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3394 3395INIT 02/1500Z 26.8N 78.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 3396 12H 03/0000Z 26.9N 78.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 3397 24H 03/1200Z 27.2N 79.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 3398 36H 04/0000Z 28.1N 79.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 3399 48H 04/1200Z 29.3N 80.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 3400 72H 05/1200Z 32.0N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 3401 96H 06/1200Z 35.4N 75.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 3402120H 07/1200Z 40.7N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3403 3404$$ 3405Forecaster Brown 3406 3407 3408 3409------------=_1567435903-110607-2331 3410Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3411Content-Disposition: inline 3412Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3413 3414= = = == = = 3415WTNT45 KNHC 021524 CCA 3416TCDAT5 3417 3418Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 37...Correction 3419NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 34201100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 3421 3422Corrected missing word in last sentence 3423 3424Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly 3425over Grand Bahama Island this morning. The hurricane remains quite 3426symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is 3427somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar 3428imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and 3429TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has 3430been reduced to 135 kt. As Dorian moves very slowly during the 3431next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the 3432Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the 3433hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in 3434southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind 3435speed. However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful 3436hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast. 3437The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance 3438during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus 3439model later in the period. 3440 3441As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened 3442and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning. 3443The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward 3444over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of 3445devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late 3446Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and 3447Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida. 3448By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn 3449ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. The overall track envelope 3450has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC 3451forecast was required. 3452 3453It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the 3454left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely 3455dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the 3456hurricane warning area. In addition, Dorian's wind field is 3457predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer 3458to the east coast of Florida even if the track does not change. 3459 3460Key Messages: 3461 34621. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will 3463continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight. 3464Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the 3465eye. 3466 34672. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds 3468are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and Georgia 3469coast, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water 3470levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong 3471winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local 3472emergency officials. 3473 34743. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 3475winds continues to increase along the coasts of South Carolina and 3476North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given 3477by local emergency officials. 3478 34794. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, 3480are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal 3481sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the 3482United States into Friday. 3483 3484FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3485 3486INIT 02/1500Z 26.8N 78.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 3487 12H 03/0000Z 26.9N 78.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 3488 24H 03/1200Z 27.2N 79.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 3489 36H 04/0000Z 28.1N 79.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 3490 48H 04/1200Z 29.3N 80.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 3491 72H 05/1200Z 32.0N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 3492 96H 06/1200Z 35.4N 75.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 3493120H 07/1200Z 40.7N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3494 3495$$ 3496Forecaster Brown 3497 3498 3499 3500------------=_1567437880-110607-2344 3501Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3502Content-Disposition: inline 3503Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3504 3505= = = == = = 3506WTNT45 KNHC 022046 3507TCDAT5 3508 3509Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 38 3510NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 3511500 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 3512 3513Dorian remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery. 3514Recent radar and aircraft observations are again showing signs of 3515a concentric eyewall structure which might be one of the factors 3516that has led to a decrease in the peak winds and a small expansion 3517of the wind field. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 3518reported peak flight-level winds of 129 kt, SFMR winds of 121 3519kt, and a central pressure that has risen to 940 mb. Based on these 3520observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 125 kt. Some 3521additional decrease in wind speed is likely in the short term due 3522due to a possible eyewall replacement and upwelling of cooler 3523waters caused by the very slow motion of the hurricane. Although 3524some additional slow weakening is forecast while the hurricane moves 3525northward along the southeastern United States coastline due to 3526increasing southwesterly shear, Dorian is forecast to remain a 3527powerful hurricane during that time. The NHC intensity forecast 3528forecast is a blend of the latest statistical and and consensus 3529model guidance. 3530 3531Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon with the two most 3532recent aircraft fixes showing essentially no motion. A slow 3533westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and 3534continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only 3535slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island. By Tuesday afternoon, 3536Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a 3537weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge. Although 3538the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the 3539Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the 3540west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore. A broad mid- 3541latitude trough should help turn Dorian northeastward by Wednesday 3542night, and the track models show the center coming precariously 3543close to the southeastern United States coast. The tracks from the 35441200 UTC runs of the global models have remained fairly stable, 3545which has resulted in little overall change to the latest NHC track 3546forecast. 3547 3548Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that 3549life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far 3550from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, strong 3551winds and a life-threatening storm surge are likely along a portion 3552of the U.S east coast from Florida through the Carolinas. 3553 3554Key Messages: 3555 35561. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand 3557Bahama Island through tonight. Everyone there should remain in 3558shelter and not venture into the eye. 3559 35602. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds 3561are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts 3562of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of 3563Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of 3564the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow 3565advice given by local emergency officials. 3566 35673. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 3568winds continues to increase along the coast North Carolina. 3569Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local 3570emergency officials. 3571 35724. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, 3573are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal 3574sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the 3575United States through Friday. 3576 3577FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3578 3579INIT 02/2100Z 26.8N 78.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 3580 12H 03/0600Z 27.0N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 3581 24H 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 3582 36H 04/0600Z 28.7N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 3583 48H 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 3584 72H 05/1800Z 32.8N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 3585 96H 06/1800Z 36.6N 73.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 3586120H 07/1800Z 43.5N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3587 3588$$ 3589Forecaster Brown 3590 3591 3592 3593------------=_1567457170-110607-2532 3594Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3595Content-Disposition: inline 3596Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3597 3598= = = == = = 3599WTNT45 KNHC 030252 3600TCDAT5 3601 3602Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 39 3603NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 36041100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 3605 3606Dorian continues to pummel Grand Bahama Island this evening. The 3607hurricane still has an impressive presentation in satellite and 3608radar images, however, there have been occasional dry slots 3609observed in the western part of the eyewall. Both the NOAA and 3610Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided excellent data in Dorian this 3611evening, and based primarily on the flight-level wind data from the 3612aircraft, the initial intensity of Dorian is set to 115 kt. The 3613westernmost outer rain bands are reaching the east coast of south 3614Florida and producing gusty winds. 3615 3616The major hurricane has been stationary much of the day. The reason 3617the cyclone has moved very little is because it is caught in weak 3618steering currents between high pressure ridges to its east and 3619northwest and a trough to its north. This weak flow should result 3620in a very slow and likely erratic northwest drift through at least 3621early Tuesday. After that time, the models are in general agreement 3622that the ridge to the east and trough to the north will amplify. 3623This change in the steering pattern should cause Dorian to move a 3624little faster to the north on Wednesday and to the northeast on 3625Thursday and Friday. The NHC track forecast remains consistent and 3626continues to show the core of Dorian offshore, but dangerously close 3627to the east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during 3628the next 3 days or so. This track forecast is largely an update of 3629the previous one and it is in good agreement with the various 3630consensus models. Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a 3631point, and that life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 3632winds extend far from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast 3633track, Dorian is likely to produce strong winds and a 3634life-threatening storm surge along a portion of the U.S. east coast 3635from Florida through the Carolinas. 3636 3637The intensity models are in agreement that Dorian should slowly 3638lose strength during the next several days due to a gradual 3639increase in wind shear and perhaps drier air. Regardless of the 3640details of the intensity forecast, the bottom line is that Dorian is 3641expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it tracks very near the 3642east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during the 3643next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the 3644previous one and close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance. 3645 3646 3647Key Messages: 3648 36491. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand 3650Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain 3651in shelter. 3652 36532. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds 3654are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts 3655of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of 3656Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of 3657the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow 3658advice given by local emergency officials. 3659 36603. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 3661winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. 3662Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local 3663emergency officials. 3664 36654. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, 3666are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal 3667sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the 3668United States through Friday. 3669 3670 3671FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3672 3673INIT 03/0300Z 26.9N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 3674 12H 03/1200Z 27.1N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 3675 24H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 3676 36H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 3677 48H 05/0000Z 30.6N 79.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 3678 72H 06/0000Z 33.7N 77.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 3679 96H 07/0000Z 38.0N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 3680120H 08/0000Z 45.4N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3681 3682$$ 3683Forecaster Cangialosi 3684 3685 3686 3687------------=_1567479136-110607-2802 3688Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3689Content-Disposition: inline 3690Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3691 3692= = = == = = 3693WTNT45 KNHC 030854 3694TCDAT5 3695 3696Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 40 3697NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 3698500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 3699 3700Dorian continues to pound Grand Bahama Island early this morning 3701while moving little. The eyewall has become a little less 3702defined over the past few hours on radar. On infrared satellite 3703images, the eye remains fairly well defined, but the surrounding 3704deep convection is somewhat fragmented. Upper-level outflow is a 3705bit restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation. The 3706initial intensity is held at 105 kt, which is a blend of subjective 3707Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Dorian is expected to more 3708or less maintain its intensity for about 36 hours. After that time 3709period, increasing vertical shear should cause gradual weakening. 3710However, the system is likely to remain a major hurricane for the 3711next few days. The official forecast is closest to the latest LGEM 3712guidance. 3713 3714Dorian has been nearly stationary for the past 18 hours, as 3715steering currents in its vicinity have collapsed. The global 3716models indicate that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will 3717develop in response to a trough that will amplify along the east 3718coast of the United States within the next day or so. Dorian 3719should respond to these changes by beginning to move 3720north-northwestward toward the weakness in the ridge a little later 3721today. The system should turn northward with a gradual increase in 3722forward speed as it moves through the weakness in around 48 hours. 3723Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward on 3724the southern side of the trough. The official track forecast is 3725similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to the model 3726consensus. 3727 3728Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall 3729along the Florida east coast, users are reminded not to forecast on 3730the exact forecast track. A relatively small deviation to the 3731left of this track could bring the core of the hurricane near or 3732over the coastline. 3733 3734 3735Key Messages: 3736 37371. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand 3738Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain 3739in shelter. 3740 37412. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds 3742are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts 3743of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of 3744Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance 3745of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should 3746follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3747 37483. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 3749winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. 3750Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local 3751emergency officials. 3752 37534. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the 3754Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic 3755coast during the middle and latter part of the week. 3756 3757 3758FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3759 3760INIT 03/0900Z 26.9N 78.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 3761 12H 03/1800Z 27.5N 78.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 3762 24H 04/0600Z 28.5N 79.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 3763 36H 04/1800Z 29.9N 79.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 3764 48H 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 3765 72H 06/0600Z 34.3N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 3766 96H 07/0600Z 39.0N 69.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 3767120H 08/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3768 3769$$ 3770Forecaster Pasch 3771 3772 3773 3774------------=_1567500860-110607-2960 3775Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3776Content-Disposition: inline 3777Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3778 3779= = = == = = 3780WTNT45 KNHC 031451 3781TCDAT5 3782 3783Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 41 3784NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 37851100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 3786 3787Recent radar and aircraft data show that Dorian has finally begun to 3788move northwestward, but dangerous winds and life-threatening storm 3789surge will continue over Grand Bahama Island for much of today. The 3790eye has become cloud filled in infrared and visible satellite 3791imagery. While aircraft and radar data indicate that the eye has 3792increased in size, it is also a bit more ragged. Recent reports 3793from reconnaissance aircraft and data buoys indicate that overall 3794wind field of the hurricane is slowly expanding, while the peak 3795winds have come down a little more. The latest reports from the 3796aircraft support an initial intensity of 95 kt. As Dorian moves 3797near the east coast of Florida during the next day or two, little 3798overall change in intensity is anticipated. After that time, 3799increasing shear should result in a gradual decrease in the peak 3800wind speed while the hurricane gains latitude and grows in size. 3801The official forecast is in good agreement with the intensity 3802consensus models. 3803 3804The initial motion estimate is 320/2 kt. A shortwave trough moving 3805into the Great Lakes region is forecast by the global models to 3806amplify a deep-layer trough along the east coast of the United 3807States on Wednesday. This should allow Dorian to begin moving 3808slightly faster toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours, 3809followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near or over 3810the coasts of South and North Carolina. After moving offshore of 3811the Outer Banks, Dorian should get caught in the mid-latitude 3812westerlies and accelerate northeastward. The NHC track is along the 3813western edge of the interpolated track models through 36 hours, 3814closer to what is depicted in the various global fields. After that 3815time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and 3816slower ECMWF models. 3817 3818Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall 3819along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian's wind 3820field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track 3821will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the 3822Florida east coast. 3823 3824The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches 3825and warnings along the southeastern United States coast. 3826 3827Key Messages: 3828 38291. Dangerous winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand 3830Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain 3831in shelter. 3832 38332. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 3834along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia 3835and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's 3836center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the 3837arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow 3838advice given by local emergency officials. 3839 38403. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force 3841winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. 3842Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local 3843emergency officials. 3844 38454. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the 3846Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic 3847coast during the middle and latter part of the week. 3848 3849FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3850 3851INIT 03/1500Z 27.1N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 3852 12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 3853 24H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 3854 36H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 3855 48H 05/1200Z 32.1N 79.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 3856 72H 06/1200Z 35.3N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 3857 96H 07/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 3858120H 08/1200Z 48.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3859 3860$$ 3861Forecaster Brown 3862 3863 3864 3865------------=_1567522314-110607-3124 3866Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3867Content-Disposition: inline 3868Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3869 3870= = = == = = 3871WTNT45 KNHC 032049 3872TCDAT5 3873 3874Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 42 3875NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 3876500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 3877 3878Dorian has finally begun a more definitive northwestward motion this 3879afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly 3880better in one-minute GOES 16 imagery with the large eye becoming a 3881little more apparent. The eye has also become better defined in NWS 3882Doppler radar from Melbourne, Florida. Reconnaissance aircraft data 3883continue to show an expansion of the tropical-storm and 50-kt wind 3884radii, and it is likely that the area of hurricane-force winds 3885will also increase somewhat during the next 24-36 hours. The initial 3886intensity remains 95 kt, and is a blend of the earlier 3887reconnaissance data and the latest satellite estimates. Dorian will 3888be moving northwestward over untapped waters east of the Florida 3889peninsula, which may lead to some structural re-organization, but 3890little overall change in intensity is expected during the next 3891couple of days. After that time, a gradual decrease in the peak 3892wind speed and an increase in storm size are predicted while the 3893vertical shear increases and the storm moves farther north. An 3894approaching mid-latitude trough and front will begin interacting 3895with the hurricane on Saturday and Dorian is forecast to become a 3896powerful extratropical low by 120 hours. 3897 3898Dorian is now moving northwestward or 325/5 kt. The deep-layer 3899trough along the east coast of the United States is expected to 3900amplify on Wednesday, which should cause Dorian to move at a 3901slightly faster north-northwestward motion tonight and Wednesday. 3902After that time, Dorian should turn northward, and then north- 3903northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the eastern 3904United States. Once Dorian is offshore of eastern North Carolina, 3905it should accelerate northeastward within the mid-latitude 3906westerlies. The track envelope has edged closer to the coasts of 3907South Carolina and North Carolina and the NHC track has been 3908adjusted in that direction. A track that close to the coast, even 3909if landfall does not occur, is likely to bring dangerous winds, 3910life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains across the eastern 3911portions of the Carolinas. 3912 3913Key Messages: 3914 39151. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 3916along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, 3917South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of 3918Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the 3919arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow 3920advice given by local emergency officials. 3921 39222. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia 3923coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in 3924these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 3925 39263. The flash flood threat will increase tonight along the Florida 3927east coast and then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic 3928coast during the middle and latter part of the week. 3929 3930FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 3931 3932INIT 03/2100Z 27.7N 78.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 3933 12H 04/0600Z 28.7N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 3934 24H 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 3935 36H 05/0600Z 31.4N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 3936 48H 05/1800Z 32.6N 79.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 3937 72H 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 3938 96H 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 3939120H 08/1800Z 50.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 3940 3941$$ 3942Forecaster Brown 3943 3944 3945 3946------------=_1567543812-110607-3341 3947Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3948Content-Disposition: inline 3949Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3950 3951= = = == = = 3952WTNT45 KNHC 040256 3953TCDAT5 3954 3955Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 43 3956NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 39571100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 3958 3959Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or 3960so. Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has 3961become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi 3962diameter. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate 3963that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since 3964this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial 3965intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous. 3966The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind 3967field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and 3968hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the 3969center, respectively. NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the 3970center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with 3971gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft. 3972 3973Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion 3974estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the 3975flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to 3976its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in 3977forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of 3978Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida 3979during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast 3980is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the 3981northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane 3982very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina 3983on Thursday and Friday. After it passes the Outer Banks, the 3984hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger 3985mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend. 3986The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of 3987the tightly packed guidance envelope. 3988 3989The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high 3990moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these 3991conditions until it nears the Carolina coast. Therefore, Dorian is 3992expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple 3993of days. After that time, an increase in shear from the 3994mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly 3995weaken. The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an 3996extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows 3997those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is 3998expected to expand even more. Therefore, even if Dorian does not 3999make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions 4000of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina. 4001 4002Key Messages: 4003 40041. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 4005along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, 4006South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of 4007Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the 4008arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow 4009advice given by local emergency officials. 4010 40112. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia 4012coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in 4013these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 4014 40153. The flash flood threat will increase overnight along the Florida 4016east coast, then spread up the southeast and mid Atlantic coast 4017beginning Wednesday. There is a moderate risk of flash flooding 4018from coastal Georgia through the eastern portions of South and North 4019Carolina Wednesday and Thursday. 4020 4021 4022FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4023 4024INIT 04/0300Z 28.4N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 4025 12H 04/1200Z 29.4N 79.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 4026 24H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 4027 36H 05/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 4028 48H 06/0000Z 33.3N 78.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 4029 72H 07/0000Z 37.1N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 4030 96H 08/0000Z 43.3N 62.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4031120H 09/0000Z 51.5N 52.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4032 4033$$ 4034Forecaster Cangialosi 4035 4036 4037 4038------------=_1567565823-110607-3517 4039Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4040Content-Disposition: inline 4041Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4042 4043= = = == = = 4044WTNT45 KNHC 040855 4045TCDAT5 4046 4047Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 44 4048NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 4049500 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 4050 4051NOAA Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit 4052Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian's eye has become 4053broad and less well-defined over the past several hours. The 4054hurricane is still producing some healthy bands of deep convection 4055that are causing winds of at least tropical storm force along 4056portions of the northeast coast of Florida. Although the central 4057pressure had been rising, recent observations from the Hurricane 4058Hunters show that it has leveled off near 963 mb. The current 4059intensity is set at 90 kt, which may be generous considering the 4060flight-level wind speeds reported by the aircraft. Dorian will be 4061traversing warm waters for the next couple of days, with some 4062increase in vertical shear after 24 hours. The official intensity 4063forecast maintains the current intensity for a day or so and then 4064shows a very slow weakening thereafter. This is close to the latest 4065statistical-dynamical guidance. The system is expected to maintain 4066close to category 2 strength until it passes near or over the North 4067Carolina Outer Banks. 4068 4069Dorian is moving slowly north-northwestward to northwestward, or 4070330/7 kt. There is basically no change to the track forecast 4071reasoning. Over the next day or so, the hurricane is forecast to 4072gradually turn toward the north as it moves through a break in the 4073subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Dorian should accelerate 4074north-northeastward to northeastward on the southern side of a 4075broad mid-latitude trough. The official forecast track remains 4076close to the corrected multi-model consensus. 4077 4078Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously 4079close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast 4080Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility 4081of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and 4082life-threatening storm surges from this hurricane. 4083 4084 4085Key Messages: 4086 40871. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 4088along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, 4089South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of 4090Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the 4091arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow 4092advice given by local emergency officials. 4093 40942. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia 4095coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in 4096these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 4097 40983. The flash flood threat will spread up the southeast U.S. coast 4099today and Thursday, then across the coastal Mid-Atlantic region 4100on Friday. There is a high risk of flash flooding on Thursday 4101across coastal sections from northeast South Carolina into southern 4102North Carolina. 4103 4104FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4105 4106INIT 04/0900Z 29.2N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 4107 12H 04/1800Z 30.1N 79.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 4108 24H 05/0600Z 31.2N 80.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 4109 36H 05/1800Z 32.2N 79.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 4110 48H 06/0600Z 33.7N 77.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 4111 72H 07/0600Z 38.0N 70.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 4112 96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4113120H 09/0600Z 53.5N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4114 4115$$ 4116Forecaster Pasch 4117 4118 4119 4120------------=_1567587336-110607-3644 4121Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4122Content-Disposition: inline 4123Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4124 4125= = = == = = 4126WTNT45 KNHC 041458 4127TCDAT5 4128 4129Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 45 4130NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 41311100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 4132 4133Satellite imagery indicates that the cloud tops in the eyewall of 4134Dorian have cooled significantly during the past few hours, with the 4135eye becoming better defined in NOAA Doppler radar data. However, 4136just-received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 4137aircraft show that the hurricane has changed little in intensity, 4138with maximum winds remaining near 90 kt and the central pressure 4139near 964 mb. The aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are 4140roughly 50 n mi offshore of the northeastern Florida peninsula, 4141while surface observations show that tropical-storm conditions are 4142affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Florida. 4143 4144The initial motion is now 335/8. Dorian is moving around the 4145western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve 4146northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during 4147the next 24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian 4148near or over the coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period. 4149After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward 4150into the Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick 4151northeastward motion continuing for the remainder of the cyclone's 4152life. The track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new 4153forecast track, which has only minor changes from the previous 4154forecast, lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the 4155consensus models. It should be noted that the track is close to and 4156almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United State, and 4157any deviation to the left of the track could bring the center 4158onshore anywhere in the Carolinas. 4159 4160Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate 4161vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the 4162next 48 h. As a result, the hurricane is expected to maintain 4163Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United 4164States coast. After 48 h, increasing shear and dry air entrainment 4165should cause a weakening trend. Extratropical transition should 4166begin near the 72 h time, and the cyclone is forecast to become a 4167hurricane-force extratropical low by 96 h near or over Nova Scotia 4168and Newfoundland. 4169 4170Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously 4171close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast 4172Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility 4173of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life- 4174threatening storm surges from this hurricane. 4175 4176Key Messages: 4177 41781. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 4179along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, 4180South Carolina, North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of 4181Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the 4182arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow 4183advice given by local emergency officials. 4184 41852. The risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rain impacts along 4186portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay 4187continues to increase. Residents in these areas should continue to 4188monitor the progress of Dorian. 4189 41903. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal 4191Georgia into the eastern Carolinas tonight into Friday. There is a 4192high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas, 4193where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected. 4194 4195FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4196 4197INIT 04/1500Z 29.8N 79.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 4198 12H 05/0000Z 30.8N 80.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 4199 24H 05/1200Z 31.9N 79.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 4200 36H 06/0000Z 33.1N 78.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 4201 48H 06/1200Z 34.8N 76.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 4202 72H 07/1200Z 39.9N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 4203 96H 08/1200Z 47.5N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4204120H 09/1200Z 55.0N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4205 4206$$ 4207Forecaster Beven 4208 4209 4210 4211------------=_1567609118-110607-3807 4212Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4213Content-Disposition: inline 4214Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4215 4216= = = == = = 4217WTNT45 KNHC 042057 4218TCDAT5 4219 4220Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 46 4221NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 4222500 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 4223 4224Dorian has become a little better organized during the past several 4225hours, with the eye becoming somewhat more distinct and the cold 4226cloud tops in the eyewall becoming more symmetric. An Air Force 4227Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has twice reported 110-kt 4228flight-level winds in the eastern eyewall, and the central pressure 4229has fallen to 961 mb. Based on these data and that of eyewall 4230dropsondes, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt. The 4231aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are 50-60 n mi 4232offshore of northeastern coast of Florida, while surface 4233observations show that tropical-storm conditions are affecting 4234portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. 4235 4236The initial motion is now 345/8. Dorian is moving around the 4237western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve 4238northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during 4239the next 12-36 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian 4240near the coast of South Carolina in about 24 h and near or over the 4241coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period. After that time, 4242the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the 4243Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick northeastward 4244motion continuing through 120 h. The track guidance remains very 4245tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from 4246the previous forecast. It should be noted that the track is close 4247to and almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United 4248State, and any deviation to the left of the track could bring the 4249center onshore anywhere in the Carolinas. 4250 4251Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate 4252vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the 4253next 36 h or so. None of the guidance shows significant 4254strengthening during this time, and the official forecast is 4255similar to, but slightly stronger than, the previous forecast. 4256However, based on current trends it is possible that Dorian could 4257briefly regain major hurricane strength during the next 12-24 h. The 4258hurricane is expected to maintain Category 2 intensity as it passes 4259near the southeastern United States coast during the 24-48 h period, 4260followed by a weakening trend due to increasing shear and dry air 4261entrainment. Extratropical transition is now expected to begin 4262between 48-72 h and be complete just after 72 h, with Dorian 4263forecast to become a hurricane-force extratropical low as it moves 4264towards Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. 4265 4266Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously 4267close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast 4268Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility 4269of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life- 4270threatening storm surges from this hurricane. 4271 4272Key Messages: 4273 42741. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 4275along portions of the Florida east coast, the coasts of Georgia, 4276South Carolina, and North Carolina, and portions of southeast 4277Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact 4278track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance 4279of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should 4280follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4281 42822. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal 4283Georgia into the eastern Carolinas tonight into Friday. There is a 4284high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas, 4285where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected. 4286 4287FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4288 4289INIT 04/2100Z 30.6N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 4290 12H 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 4291 24H 05/1800Z 32.7N 79.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 4292 36H 06/0600Z 34.0N 77.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 4293 48H 06/1800Z 35.9N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 4294 72H 07/1800Z 42.1N 65.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 4295 96H 08/1800Z 50.5N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4296120H 09/1800Z 56.5N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4297 4298$$ 4299Forecaster Beven 4300 4301 4302 4303------------=_1567630650-110607-4012 4304Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4305Content-Disposition: inline 4306Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4307 4308= = = == = = 4309WTNT45 KNHC 050255 4310TCDAT5 4311 4312Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 47 4313NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 43141100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 4315 4316Satellite imagery indicated that the cloud pattern associated with 4317Dorian was a little better organized with a clear eye surrounded 4318by a ring of very deep convection. This trend was confirmed with 4319data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes, which 4320measured a minimum central pressure of 955 mb. SFMR and flight-level 4321winds support an initial intensity of 100 kt. In fact, Dvorak 4322numbers also call for 100 kt. 4323 4324Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so, 4325but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result 4326in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same 4327as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2 4328or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United 4329States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which 4330unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone. On the other hand, the 4331wind field is expected to gradually expand during the next several 4332days until the cyclone becomes extratropical near Atlantic Canada. 4333 4334Aircraft fixes yield a northward motion or 010 degrees at 6 kt. 4335Dorian is already recurving as it is becoming steered by the south- 4336southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward-moving mid-level trough. The 4337track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast follows 4338very closely the multi-model consensus. No significant change to 4339the previous track forecast was necessary. The forecast motion 4340should bring the core of Dorian near the coast of South Carolina 4341during the next 6 to 12 hours and over the Outer Banks of North 4342Carolina between 24 and 36 hours. 4343 4344Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously 4345close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from Georgia 4346to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility of 4347experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life- 4348threatening storm surges from this hurricane. 4349 4350Key Messages: 4351 43521. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 4353along portions the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North 4354Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern 4355Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. 4356Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong 4357winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local 4358emergency officials. 4359 43602. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal 4361Georgia into the eastern Carolinas overnight. On Thursday, there is 4362a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the 4363Carolinas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is 4364expected. 4365 4366 4367FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4368 4369INIT 05/0300Z 31.3N 79.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 4370 12H 05/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 4371 24H 06/0000Z 33.6N 78.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 4372 36H 06/1200Z 35.2N 75.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER NC OUTER BANKS 4373 48H 07/0000Z 37.5N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 4374 72H 08/0000Z 45.0N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 4375 96H 09/0000Z 53.5N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4376120H 10/0000Z 58.0N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4377 4378$$ 4379Forecaster Avila 4380 4381 4382 4383------------=_1567652144-110607-4166 4384Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4385Content-Disposition: inline 4386Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4387 4388= = = == = = 4389WTNT45 KNHC 050851 4390TCDAT5 4391 4392Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 48 4393NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 4394500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 4395 4396Dorian continues to exhibit a large eye of about 50 n mi in 4397diameter on satellite and radar images. Earlier data from 4398hurricane hunter aircraft indicate little change to the minimum 4399central pressure, and flight-level winds still support an intensity 4400close to 100 kt at this time. Dorian should soon begin to 4401experience increasing southwesterly shear, which should lead to at 4402least slow weakening during the next couple of days. The official 4403forecast maintains the cyclone at hurricane strength through 72 4404hours, which is in general agreement with the LGEM guidance and on 4405the high side of the guidance suite. By 72 hours, the global models 4406show Dorian becoming embedded within a baroclinic zone, and 4407simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model depicts a highly 4408asymmetric cloud pattern. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows the 4409system becoming extratropical by that time. 4410 4411Dorian's initial motion is about 010/6 kt. The hurricane is 4412currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge. Within 4413a day or so, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increasing 4414forward speed in response to a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the 4415north. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with 4416the dynamical model consensus. The forecast track and wind radii 4417now require the issuance of a tropical storm watch for extreme 4418southeastern New England. 4419 4420The center of Dorian is still expected to move very near or over 4421the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic 4422states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for 4423damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. 4424 4425 4426Key Messages: 4427 44281. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 4429along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and 4430portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, 4431regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels 4432could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. 4433Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local 4434emergency officials. 4435 44362. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across the eastern 4437Carolinas today. There is a high risk of flash flooding over 4438coastal sections of the Carolinas where life-threatening flash 4439flooding is expected. 4440 4441 4442FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4443 4444INIT 05/0900Z 31.7N 79.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 4445 12H 05/1800Z 32.7N 78.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 4446 24H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 4447 36H 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 4448 48H 07/0600Z 38.3N 70.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 4449 72H 08/0600Z 46.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4450 96H 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4451120H 10/0600Z 58.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4452 4453$$ 4454Forecaster Pasch 4455 4456 4457 4458------------=_1567673482-110607-4307 4459Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4460Content-Disposition: inline 4461Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4462 4463= = = == = = 4464WTNT45 KNHC 051455 4465TCDAT5 4466 4467Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 49 4468NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 44691100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 4470 4471The latest NOAA Doppler radar data, along with Air Force Reserve and 4472NOAA Hurricane Hunter reports, indicate that Dorian has an well- 4473defined eye with a diameter of about 40 n mi, with the northwestern 4474edge of the eyewall not far from the South Carolina coast. The 4475Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the flight-level and SFMR 4476surface winds have decreased some since 12 h ago, accompanied by a 4477rise in the central pressure. Based on this, the initial intensity 4478is decreased to a possibly generous 95 kt. The central pressure of 4479958 mb is based partly on data from NOAA buoy 41004, which is 4480currently inside the eye. 4481 4482Dorian has nudged eastward during the past several hours and the 4483initial motion is now 020/7. The hurricane is now moving into the 4484mid-latitude westerlies, and during the next several hours it is 4485expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed. 4486This should bring the eye near or over the coasts of eastern South 4487Carolina and southeastern North Carolina during the next 12-24 h. 4488After that, Dorian is forecast to move quickly across the northwest 4489Atlantic and be near or over the Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic 4490provinces by 72 h. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, 4491and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous 4492forecast. 4493 4494Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves along the South and 4495North Carolina coasts. Extratropical transition should begin 4496around 48 h and be complete by 72 h, although Dorian is forecast 4497to maintain hurricane-force winds through the transition. After 449872 h, the extratropical low should weaken over the far north 4499Atlantic. 4500 4501The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the 4502coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. 4503Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging 4504winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. 4505 4506Key Messages: 4507 45081. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 4509along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and 4510portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, 4511regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels 4512could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents 4513in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency 4514officials. 4515 45162. Flash flooding will become more widespread across the eastern 4517Carolinas and far southeast Virginia today into tonight. There is a 4518high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, 4519life-threatening, flash flooding is expected. 4520 4521FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4522 4523INIT 05/1500Z 32.5N 79.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 4524 12H 06/0000Z 33.5N 78.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 4525 24H 06/1200Z 35.1N 75.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 4526 36H 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 4527 48H 07/1200Z 40.1N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 4528 72H 08/1200Z 48.0N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4529 96H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4530120H 10/1200Z 59.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4531 4532$$ 4533Forecaster Beven 4534 4535 4536 4537------------=_1567695353-110607-4496 4538Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4539Content-Disposition: inline 4540Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4541 4542= = = == = = 4543WTNT45 KNHC 052051 4544TCDAT5 4545 4546Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 50 4547NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 4548500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 4549 4550During the last 12 h, Dorian appears to have started the expected 4551slow weakening trend. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data show 4552that the central pressure inside the 35-45 n mi wide eye is slowly 4553rising, and satellite imagery indicates that the eye is becoming 4554less well defined. The current Hurricane Hunter aircraft has 4555reported maximum SFMR surface wind estimates of 88 kt, along with 4556700 mb flight-level winds of 91 kt. Based on these data, the initial 4557intensity is reduced to 90 kt. 4558 4559The hurricane is continuing its expected northeastward turn, and the 4560initial motion is now 035/9. The mid-latitude westerlies should 4561steer Dorian generally northeastward at an increasing forward speed, 4562with the eye passing near of over portions of the North Carolina 4563coast during the next 12-24 h. After that, Dorian is forecast to 4564move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the 4565Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 60 h. As was the case in 4566the previous advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered, 4567and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous 4568one. 4569 4570Due to increasing shear, Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it 4571moves near and along the South and North Carolina coasts. 4572Extratropical transition should begin around 36-48 h and be complete 4573by 60 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force 4574winds through the transition. After transition is complete, the 4575extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic and be 4576absorbed into a larger low pressure area by 120 h. 4577 4578The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the 4579coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. 4580Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging 4581winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. It also 4582appears that Dorian will affect portion of eastern Canada as a 4583hurricane-force extratropical low. 4584 4585Key Messages: 4586 45871. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 4588along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and 4589portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, 4590regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels 4591could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents 4592in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency 4593officials. 4594 45952. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more 4596widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia 4597through tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these 4598areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is 4599expected. 4600 4601FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4602 4603INIT 05/2100Z 33.1N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 4604 12H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 4605 24H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 4606 36H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 4607 48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 4608 72H 08/1800Z 50.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4609 96H 09/1800Z 56.0N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4610120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED 4611 4612$$ 4613Forecaster Beven 4614 4615 4616 4617------------=_1567716721-110607-4732 4618Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4619Content-Disposition: inline 4620Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4621 4622= = = == = = 4623WTNT45 KNHC 060253 4624TCDAT5 4625 4626Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 51 4627NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 46281100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 4629 4630Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes and surface 4631data nearby Dorian indicate that although the central pressure is a 4632little bit lower, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from 4633Wilmington and Morehead City indicate that winds have decreased as 4634the circulation of the hurricane expands. The initial intensity is 4635now estimated to be 85 kt. 4636 4637Dorian is moving toward higher shear, and gradual weakening is 4638anticipated. As indicated in the previous forecast, extratropical 4639transition should begin in about 48 hours and be complete by 72 4640hours. However, Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force-winds 4641while moving near or over Nova Scotia. 4642 4643The initial motion is 045 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is already 4644embedded in the southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving 4645mid-latitude trough. This flow pattern should steer the hurricane on 4646a northeastward track with increasing forward speed. Track guidance 4647continues to be in remarkably good agreement with this solution, and 4648the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. The 4649current forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory. 4650 4651The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the 4652coastline of eastern North Carolina and the southern Mid-Atlantic 4653states during the next day or so. Residents of these areas should 4654already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm 4655surges, and flooding rains. It also appears that Dorian will affect 4656portions of eastern Canada with hurricane-force winds. 4657 4658Key Messages: 4659 46601. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian's core, life-threatening 4661storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the 4662North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the 4663southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels could rise well in advance of 4664the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow 4665advice given by local emergency officials. 4666 46672. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more 4668widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia 4669overnight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these 4670areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is 4671expected. 4672 4673 4674FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4675 4676INIT 06/0300Z 33.8N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 4677 12H 06/1200Z 35.0N 75.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 4678 24H 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 4679 36H 07/1200Z 40.2N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 4680 48H 08/0000Z 44.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 4681 72H 09/0000Z 52.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4682 96H 10/0000Z 57.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4683120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED 4684 4685$$ 4686Forecaster Avila 4687 4688 4689 4690------------=_1567738445-110607-4897 4691Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4692Content-Disposition: inline 4693Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4694 4695= = = == = = 4696WTNT45 KNHC 060848 4697TCDAT5 4698 4699Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 52 4700NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 4701500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 4702 4703The center of the eye of Hurricane Dorian is located just off the 4704coast of North Carolina not far from Cape Lookout. Based on data 4705from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and Doppler radar velocities, 4706the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. This estimate is a 4707compromise between the flight-level winds and SFMR values. The 4708minimum pressure remains quite low, 956 mb, based on surface 4709observations and aircraft fixes. There have been several reports in 4710eastern North Carolina of sustained tropical-storm-force winds and 4711hurricane-force gusts, with the strongest winds being reported in 4712the northern eyewall. 4713 4714Dorian is moving northeastward at 12 kt. A faster northeastward 4715motion is expected during the next few days as a mid- to upper-level 4716trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system 4717and accelerates the steering flow. This track forecast takes the 4718hurricane along the coast of North Carolina during the next several 4719hours and near or over Atlantic Canada this weekend. The models 4720are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the 4721middle of the guidance envelope. 4722 4723The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple 4724of days due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. Dorian is 4725expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in about 472636 hours, and head over much colder waters after that. These 4727atmospheric and oceanic conditions should cause the cyclone to 4728become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical in about 2 days. As 4729the system gains latitude, the tropical-storm-force winds are 4730expected to expand significantly. The NHC intensity forecast is 4731largely an update of the previous one and in line with the various 4732consensus aids. 4733 4734Key Messages: 4735 47361. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected 4737to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of 4738southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels 4739could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents 4740in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency 4741officials. 4742 47432. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more 4744widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia 4745this morning. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these 4746areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is 4747expected. 4748 4749 4750FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4751 4752INIT 06/0900Z 34.6N 76.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 4753 12H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 4754 24H 07/0600Z 38.8N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 4755 36H 07/1800Z 42.5N 65.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 4756 48H 08/0600Z 46.7N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4757 72H 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4758 96H 10/0600Z 58.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4759120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED 4760 4761$$ 4762Forecaster Cangialosi 4763 4764 4765 4766------------=_1567759715-110607-5044 4767Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4768Content-Disposition: inline 4769Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4770 4771= = = == = = 4772WTNT45 KNHC 061457 4773TCDAT5 4774 4775Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 53 4776NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 47771100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 4778 4779The eye of Dorian made landfall over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, 4780at about 1235 UTC and then moved quickly northeastward into the 4781Atlantic. A combination of surface observations and Air Force 4782Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the maximum 4783winds are near 80 kt and the central pressure is near 957 mb. The 4784hurricane remains well-organized in satellite imagery, with 4785the 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective banding. 4786 4787The initial motion is now 045/15. Dorian should accelerate 4788northeastward during the next 24-36 h as a mid- to upper-level 4789trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system 4790and accelerates the steering flow. The track guidance remains 4791tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is changed little in 4792either direction or speed from the previous forecast. The new 4793forecast calls for Dorian to move away from the North Carolina 4794coast today, pass well southeast of southern New England tonight 4795and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday 4796night. A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring 4797the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic. 4798 4799Dorian is expected to slowly weaken due to increased shear and 4800entrainment of drier air during the next 24 h or so. After that 4801time, the hurricane is expected to undergo extratropical 4802transition and become a large and powerful post-tropical low. It is 4803unclear whether the transition will be complete before Dorian 4804reaches Nova Scotia. However, whether Dorian is a hurricane or a 4805hurricane-force extratropical low, it is expected to bring strong 4806winds, storm surge, and heavy rains to portions of Nova Scotia and 4807Newfoundland. The new NHC intensity forecast is little changed from 4808the previous forecast, and it follows the trend of the intensity 4809guidance. 4810 4811Key Messages: 4812 48131. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue 4814along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast 4815Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay for the next several 4816hours. 4817 48182. Areas of flash flooding, some of which may be significant and 4819life-threatening, will continue into early afternoon across portions 4820of northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia. 4821 48223. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf 4823of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia 4824this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, 4825Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. 4826Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more 4827information on these hazards. 4828 4829FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4830 4831INIT 06/1500Z 35.7N 74.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 4832 12H 07/0000Z 37.4N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 4833 24H 07/1200Z 40.7N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 4834 36H 08/0000Z 44.9N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 4835 48H 08/1200Z 48.8N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4836 72H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4837 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED 4838 4839$$ 4840Forecaster Beven 4841 4842 4843 4844------------=_1567781917-110607-5209 4845Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4846Content-Disposition: inline 4847Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4848 4849= = = == = = 4850WTNT45 KNHC 062101 4851TCDAT5 4852 4853Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 54 4854NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 4855500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 4856 4857Dorian has become better organized since it moved into the Atlantic 4858this morning, and satellite imagery shows that it now has a 4859well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast along with a 4860large outer banding feature in the northwestern semicircle. The 4861last aircraft data near 1700 UTC indicated this had not yet resulted 4862in intensification. However, the various subjective and objective 4863satellite intensity estimates are trending upward, and the advisory 4864intensity of 80 kt could be conservative. The hurricane currently 4865has excellent outflow over the northern semicircle. 4866 4867The initial motion is now 050/21. Dorian should move quickly 4868northeastward during the next 24-48 h as it interacts with a mid- to 4869upper-level trough, currently over the eastern Great Lakes. The 4870track guidance has changed little and remains tightly clustered, and 4871only minor adjustments have been made to the previous track. The 4872new forecast track calls for Dorian to pass well southeast of 4873southern New England tonight and Saturday, and then move over Nova 4874Scotia Saturday or Saturday night. A continued northeastward motion 4875is then expected to bring the cyclone across Newfoundland into the 4876far north Atlantic. 4877 4878There has been a significant change to the intensity forecast 4879philosophy. The GFS and ECMWF, which have been forecasting Dorian 4880to transition to a powerful extratropical low, now forecast 4881intensification of the system due to baroclinic processes associated 4882with the aforementioned trough, including very strong upper-level 4883divergence. Given that Dorian is currently a well-organized 4884hurricane and will be south of the Gulf Stream for about the next 488518-24 h, it is likely that at least some of this strengthening will 4886occur before Dorian becomes extratropical. The new intensity 4887forecast now calls for Dorian to strengthen as a hurricane during 4888the next 12-24 h, then undergo extratropical transition as it is 4889passing near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The intensities 4890in the new forecast are increased during the first 24 h to reflect 4891this change. Dorian is likely to be a hurricane at landfall in Nova 4892Scotia, but it will cause significant impacts even if it has 4893completed extratropical transition by that time. 4894 4895 4896Key Messages: 4897 48981. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue 4899along portions of the North Carolina coast for the next several 4900hours. 4901 49022. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical 4903cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions 4904of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in 4905portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and 4906eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also 4907likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly 4908Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the 4909Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. 4910 4911 4912FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4913 4914INIT 06/2100Z 36.9N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 4915 12H 07/0600Z 39.1N 69.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 4916 24H 07/1800Z 42.9N 65.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 4917 36H 08/0600Z 47.1N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 4918 48H 08/1800Z 50.6N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4919 72H 09/1800Z 55.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4920 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED 4921 4922$$ 4923Forecaster Beven 4924 4925 4926 4927------------=_1567803708-110607-5381 4928Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4929Content-Disposition: inline 4930Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4931 4932= = = == = = 4933WTNT45 KNHC 070249 4934TCDAT5 4935 4936Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 55 4937NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 49381100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 4939 4940During the past couple of hours Dorian's eye has become no longer 4941apparent in conventional satellite imagery. Microwave data shows an 4942eye-like feature just to the south of the convection, and also 4943indicates that the hurricane is becoming asymmetric. The lack of 4944symmetry is the first indication or hint that Dorian is slowly 4945beginning to acquire some extratropical characteristics. The rain 4946shield is now placed to the northwest of the center, and the wind 4947field is expanding in the southern semicircle. Dvorak numbers are 4948either steady or have decreased slightly, and consequently the 4949initial intensity is kept at 80 kt in this advisory. 4950 4951The hurricane is rapidly reaching cooler waters and guidance shows 4952an area of significantly strong shear along the forecast path 4953of Dorian. Given these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for 4954gradual weakening, but Dorian is still expected to make landfall in 4955Nova Scotia with hurricane intensity late Saturday. Dorian is 4956forecast to complete its transition to extratropical once it crosses 4957Nova Scotia. 4958 4959The hurricane is racing northeastward or 045 degrees at 22 kt. Since 4960Dorian is already embedded within a fast southwesterly flow ahead of 4961a mid-latitude trough, the current northeast heading should 4962continue until dissipation occurs in about 3 days, if not sooner. 4963The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC 4964forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, increasing the 4965confidence in the track forecast. 4966 4967Key Messages: 4968 49691. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical 4970cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions 4971of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in 4972portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and 4973eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also 4974likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly 4975Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the 4976Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. 4977 4978 4979FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 4980 4981INIT 07/0300Z 38.3N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 4982 12H 07/1200Z 40.8N 66.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 4983 24H 08/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 4984 36H 08/1200Z 49.0N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4985 48H 09/0000Z 52.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4986 72H 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 4987 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED 4988 4989$$ 4990Forecaster Avila 4991 4992 4993 4994------------=_1567824588-110607-5509 4995Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 4996Content-Disposition: inline 4997Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 4998 4999= = = == = = 5000WTNT45 KNHC 070839 5001TCDAT5 5002 5003Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 56 5004NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 5005500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 5006 5007Dorian is gradually becoming less organized. The cyclone is feeling 5008some effects of southwesterly wind shear with most of its deep 5009convection located to the north and east of the estimated center. 5010The initial intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, which is in good 5011agreement with the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A 5012pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicate that the wind 5013field has expanded significantly, and tropical-storm-force winds 5014have been observed over far southeastern Massachusetts. 5015 5016Dorian is racing northeastward, with the latest initial motion 5017estimated to be 050/22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded in the 5018fast mid-latitude flow, and it should continue to move quickly 5019northeastward toward Nova Scotia later today. After the cyclone 5020passes Nova Scotia, it is forecast to move through Newfoundland and 5021Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the far north 5022Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the 5023previous one and not far from the various consensus aids. 5024 5025Dorian is expected to gradually weaken due to even stronger 5026southwesterly wind shear and much colder SSTs to the north of 5027the Gulf Stream current. The combined influences of these cold 5028waters and an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause 5029Dorian to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours. 5030However, the post-tropical cyclone will likely still be producing 5031hurricane-force winds as it moves through portions of eastern 5032Canada. The global models are in good agreement that the 5033post-tropical cyclone should slowly weaken and ultimately become 5034absorbed by another extratropical low in 3 to 4 days. The NHC 5035intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF 5036models, which typically handle large extratropical lows better that 5037than the intensity models that are made for tropical cyclones. 5038 5039 5040Key Messages: 5041 50421. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical 5043cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions 5044of eastern Canada beginning later today. Dangerous storm surge 5045impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, 5046southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force 5047winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and 5048Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to information from the 5049Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. 5050 5051 5052FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 5053 5054INIT 07/0900Z 39.7N 68.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 5055 12H 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 5056 24H 08/0600Z 46.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 5057 36H 08/1800Z 50.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 5058 48H 09/0600Z 52.5N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 5059 72H 10/0600Z 57.5N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 5060 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED 5061 5062$$ 5063Forecaster Cangialosi 5064 5065 5066 5067------------=_1567845596-110607-5598 5068Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 5069Content-Disposition: inline 5070Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 5071 5072= = = == = = 5073WTNT45 KNHC 071452 5074TCDAT5 5075 5076Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 57 5077NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 50781100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 5079 5080Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Dorian is starting 5081extratropical transition, with cold air clouds entraining into the 5082southwestern side of the cyclone and a developing warm front to the 5083north and east. However, the cyclone still has persistent 5084convection just north and northeast of the center, so it remains a 5085hurricane on this advisory. NOAA buoy 44011 reported a minimum 5086pressure of 955.3 mb as the center passed just to the west, so the 5087initial central pressure is lowered to 953 mb. The initial 5088intensity remains 75 kt based partly on recently-received WindSat 5089data showing hurricane-force winds southwest of the center. 5090 5091Dorian continues to move rapidly northeastward with an initial 5092motion of 040/25 kt. The current motion should bring the center 5093of Dorian over central and eastern Nova Scotia in about 12 h and 5094near or over Prince Edward Island shortly thereafter. Subsequently, 5095Dorian is forecast to move near or through northern Newfoundland 5096and southeastern Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the 5097far north Atlantic. There are no significant changes to the 5098previous forecast, and the new forecast is again close to the 5099various consensus aids. 5100 5101Dorian is expected to complete extratropical transition during the 5102next 24 h as it merges with a strong mid- to upper-level trough and 5103associated surface frontal zone. The global models agree on a 5104gradual decay of the winds after transition is complete. However, 5105the cyclone will likely still be producing hurricane-force winds as 5106it moves through portions of eastern Canada. The global models also 5107agree that the post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by 5108another extratropical low in 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast 5109again leans towards the GFS and ECMWF models, which typically handle 5110large extratropical lows better that than the intensity models that 5111are made for tropical cyclones. 5112 5113 5114Key Messages: 5115 51161. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical 5117cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions 5118of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous 5119storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. 5120Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. 5121Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward 5122Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to 5123information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information 5124on these hazards. 5125 5126 5127FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 5128 5129INIT 07/1500Z 42.0N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 5130 12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER NOVA SCOTIA 5131 24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 5132 36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 5133 48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 5134 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED 5135 5136$$ 5137Forecaster Beven 5138 5139 5140 5141------------=_1567867973-110607-5705 5142Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 5143Content-Disposition: inline 5144Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 5145 5146= = = == = = 5147WTNT45 KNHC 071735 5148TCDAT5 5149 5150Hurricane Dorian Special Discussion Number 58 5151NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 5152200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 5153 5154This special advisory is being issued instead of the normal 5155intermediate advisory to update the intensity and wind radii of 5156Dorian. A recent ASCAT-B overpass shows a large area of hurricane- 5157force winds southwest and south of the center of Dorian, with many 5158vectors of 80 kt or more. This area of wind is likely due to 5159baroclinic effects during the ongoing extratropical transition. 5160The initial intensity is being increased to 85 kt and the 12-h 5161intensity to 75 kt, after which the forecast intensities are the 5162same as in the previous advisory. Some changes were also made to 5163the initial and 12-h wind radii based on the scatterometer data. 5164 5165There is no change to the forecast track from the previous advisory. 5166 5167 5168Key Messages: 5169 51701. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical 5171cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions 5172of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous 5173storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. 5174Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. 5175Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward 5176Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to 5177information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information 5178on these hazards. 5179 5180 5181FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 5182 5183INIT 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 5184 12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 5185 24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 5186 36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 5187 48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 5188 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED 5189 5190$$ 5191Forecaster Beven 5192 5193 5194 5195------------=_1567877755-110607-5761 5196Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 5197Content-Disposition: inline 5198Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 5199 5200= = = == = = 5201