1WTNT41 KNHC 152105 2TCDAT1 3TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 5500 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008 6 7REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 8INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA 9IN THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME BETTER DEFINED...WITH 1500 FT 10FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE 11AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER TO 12JUSTIFY CALLING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THESE 13WESTERLIES ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 45 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON 14THIS...THE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF 15THE ATLANTIC SEASON. 16 17THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12. FAY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A 18LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A 19WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 20OR FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR. WHILE ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE 21AGREES THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL CAUSE FAY TO TURN NORTH- 22NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS 23IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST WHERE FAY WILL 24TRACK. THE NAM CALLS FOR FAY TO PASS EAST OF THE FLORIDA 25PENINSULA...WHILE THE HWRF CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN 26FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD 27THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MODEL 28CONSENSUS FORECASTS FAY TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF 29FLORIDA. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND 30INTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. 31THE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY 32TO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA...THEN PASS 33NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. 34 35THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND 36SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL 37BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE 38FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO CROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA 39AND CUBA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SIGNIFICANT 40STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES FROM THE NORTH 41COAST OF CUBA...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE 42STORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A 43PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE 44THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED 45THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE 46TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY 47FORECAST. 48 49 50FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 51 52INITIAL 15/2100Z 18.5N 69.4W 35 KT...INLAND 53 12HR VT 16/0600Z 18.9N 71.3W 35 KT...INLAND 54 24HR VT 16/1800Z 19.4N 74.1W 35 KT...OVER WATER 55 36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W 40 KT 56 48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.2W 40 KT 57 72HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.0W 40 KT...OVER COAST OF FLORIDA 58 96HR VT 19/1800Z 26.5N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA 59120HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 40 KT...INLAND 60 61$$ 62FORECASTER BEVEN 63 64 65WTNT41 KNHC 152127 66TCDAT1 67TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED 68NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 69500 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008 70 71...CORRECTION OF THE 72H POSITION TEXT 72 73REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 74INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA 75IN THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME BETTER DEFINED...WITH 1500 FT 76FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE 77AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER TO 78JUSTIFY CALLING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THESE 79WESTERLIES ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 45 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON 80THIS...THE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF 81THE ATLANTIC SEASON. 82 83THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12. FAY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A 84LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A 85WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 86OR FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR. WHILE ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE 87AGREES THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL CAUSE FAY TO TURN NORTH- 88NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS 89IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST WHERE FAY WILL 90TRACK. THE NAM CALLS FOR FAY TO PASS EAST OF THE FLORIDA 91PENINSULA...WHILE THE HWRF CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN 92FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD 93THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MODEL 94CONSENSUS FORECASTS FAY TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF 95FLORIDA. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND 96INTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. 97THE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY 98TO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA...THEN PASS 99NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. 100 101THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND 102SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL 103BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE 104FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO CROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA 105AND CUBA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SIGNIFICANT 106STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES FROM THE NORTH 107COAST OF CUBA...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE 108STORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A 109PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE 110THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED 111THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE 112TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY 113FORECAST. 114 115 116FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 117 118INITIAL 15/2100Z 18.5N 69.4W 35 KT...INLAND 119 12HR VT 16/0600Z 18.9N 71.3W 35 KT...INLAND 120 24HR VT 16/1800Z 19.4N 74.1W 35 KT...OVER WATER 121 36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W 40 KT 122 48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.2W 40 KT 123 72HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.0W 40 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA 124 96HR VT 19/1800Z 26.5N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA 125120HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 40 KT...INLAND 126 127$$ 128FORECASTER BEVEN 129 130 131WTNT41 KNHC 160239 132TCDAT1 133TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 134NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1351100 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008 136 137WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE 138IMMEDIATE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH OF FAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN 139WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOUR OR SO. BY LOOKING AT THE IMPRESSIVE 140SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...OUTFLOW IN ALL 141QUADRANTS AND THE STEADY WESTWARD MOTION...IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME 142THAT FAY COULD SURVIVE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA AND 143MOVE ...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE SATURDAY MORNING. 144IF SO...A NEW PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN SINCE THE 145SHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM SOUTH OF CUBA. ONLY 146THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA WOULD IMPEDE 147STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 148STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...MAKING FAY 149A STRONG HURRICANE SOUTH OF CUBA AND EVEN A STRONGER ONE OVER THE 150EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTER CROSSING CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 151IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BUT 152SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 153SIMPLY BECAUSE FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY LONGER OVER WATER IN THIS 154FORECAST. 155 156BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 157HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING 158CONTINUITY AND THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREES 159AT 12 KNOTS. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR 160THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 161WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS 162FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE. THIS 163PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND 164NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME 165EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN 166GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE 167OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I 168AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT 169TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. 170 171IN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN 172INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO 173THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE 174ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. 175 176 177FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 178 179INITIAL 16/0300Z 18.7N 70.8W 40 KT 180 12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.8N 72.9W 35 KT 181 24HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.5W 40 KT 182 36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.8W 50 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA 183 48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 79.5W 60 KT 184 72HR VT 19/0000Z 24.0N 81.5W 70 KT 185 96HR VT 20/0000Z 27.5N 83.0W 75 KT 186120HR VT 21/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W 40 KT...INLAND 187 188$$ 189FORECASTER AVILA 190 191 192WTNT41 KNHC 160858 193TCDAT1 194TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 195NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 196500 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 197 198EVEN THOUGH WE CANNOT DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY IS 199LOCATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE 200RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST IT IS STILL INLAND...OVER 201SOUTH-CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN 202REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THE AIR FORCE PLANE CIRCUMNAVIGATED THE ENTIRE 203ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENDURING SOME 204RATHER TURBULENT CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE STRONGEST 205THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WE APPRECIATE THE HARD 206WORK OF THE CREW. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT 207SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT. FAY REMAINS BENEATH A 208LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RESULTING IN WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW 209ALOFT...AND DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THE 210STORM HAS A RELATIVE WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE 211IMAGERY. 212 213THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 270/12 TO THE 214SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE 215SYNOPTIC REASONING...DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS...AND THE OFFICIAL 216FORECAST TRACK ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS 217ADVISORY. ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 218OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 219COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FAY TO TURN TO THE RIGHT INTO THE 220WEAKNESS...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 2213-5 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE 222AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THERE ARE RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH 223SIDES OF THAT TRACK. THE GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS HEAD UP THE WESTERN 224PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE GFS AND 225UKMET ARE FARTHER WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE 226SHORTER TERM...THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER THE CENTER 227OF FAY WILL PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BEFORE 228TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AGAIN HIGHLIGHT 229THE PITFALLS OF FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL FORECAST 230TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES. 231 232INTENSITY FORECASTING IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT...BUT IN THIS CASE IS MADE 233EVEN MORE COMPLICATED BY THE LIKELY INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING 234THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS ALONG THE 235FORECAST TRACK APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...SO THE 236MORE TIME FAY SPENDS OVER WATER...THE STRONGER IT IS LIKELY TO 237BECOME...AND VICE VERSA. DYNAMICAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE 238WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AROUND FAY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF 239THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A MODEST BUT TEMPORARY 240INCREASE IN SHEAR IN ROUGHLY 48 HOURS. WHEN FAY IS OVER 241WATER...THOSE WATERS WILL BE VERY WARM. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK 242IMPLIES AMPLE AMOUNT OF TIME OVER WATER...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS 243FORECAST...IN A MANNER SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL. FAY COULD BE 244WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF ITS STAY OVER HISPANIOLA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY 245DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION...OR IF IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST 246AND SPENDS MORE TIME OVER CUBA. A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND 247WEST...HOWEVER...COULD ALLOW FAY TO GET STRONGER THAN WHAT IS 248SHOWN BELOW. 249 250 251FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 252 253INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.7N 72.0W 40 KT 254 12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W 40 KT 255 24HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 76.4W 50 KT 256 36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 78.3W 55 KT 257 48HR VT 18/0600Z 21.8N 79.9W 65 KT...NEAR S COAST OF CUBA 258 72HR VT 19/0600Z 25.0N 82.0W 70 KT 259 96HR VT 20/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W 80 KT 260120HR VT 21/0600Z 32.0N 84.5W 35 KT...INLAND 261 262$$ 263FORECASTER KNABB 264 265 266WTNT41 KNHC 161507 267TCDAT1 268TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 269NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 2701100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 271 272VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS NOW OVER 273WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...WITH 274LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. WHILE 275THE STORM PRODUCED A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DURING THE NIGHT OVER 276THE WATER SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS 277BURST WAS AT THE FAR END OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND NOT DIRECTLY 278ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 279TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT 280BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 281HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY AROUND 18Z TO 282PROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE. 283 284THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. FAY REMAINS ON 285THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE 286MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 287MEXICO OR FLORIDA THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE 288NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN 289THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE 290ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ARE FARTHEST TO THE EAST...CALLING FOR 291FAY TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE 292GFDL IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE GFS...HWRF...FLORIDA STATE 293SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST 294CENTRAL CUBA AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF 295FLORIDA. THE UKMET AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO 296MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST 297WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 298OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED 299A LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THUS...THE NEW 300FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK 301AFTER 48 HR. EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE 302PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME 303CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC 304WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT. 305 306WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL 307BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY 308WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON 309THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...AND 310THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 311SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY 312FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL 313ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN 314MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION. 315 316 317FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 318 319INITIAL 16/1500Z 19.0N 73.7W 40 KT 320 12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.4W 45 KT 321 24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.5W 50 KT...INLAND 322 36HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 79.3W 55 KT 323 48HR VT 18/1200Z 22.7N 80.6W 65 KT...INLAND 324 72HR VT 19/1200Z 26.0N 82.0W 80 KT 325 96HR VT 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W 60 KT...INLAND 326120HR VT 21/1200Z 32.5N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND 327 328$$ 329FORECASTER BEVEN 330 331 332WTNT41 KNHC 162058 333TCDAT1 334TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 335NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 336500 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 337 338REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT FAY 339IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER...WITH THE INITIAL 340INTENSITY NEAR 35 KT AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. THE 341SATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS RAGGED A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT A NEW CLUSTER 342OF STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 343THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR 344ELSEWHERE. 345 346THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A 347LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A 348WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA 349THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH 350AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN 351AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS REMAIN ON 352THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAVE BEEN JOINED BY 353THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THESE 354MODELS CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE GFS...HWRF... 355GFDN...FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS 356FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE 357WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE 358BOTH SHIFTED EAST OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL ON THE 359WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CALLING FOR A MOTION TOWARD 360THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE 361MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE 362NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND 363IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTER THE 48 HR POINT. EVERYONE IN 364THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST 365LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING 366HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY 367PRODUCT. 368 369WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL 370BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY 371WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON 372THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST 373STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST 374AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE 375INTENSITY FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES 376WELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER...SUCH AS WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA OR 377OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ON THE OTHER HAND...IT MIGHT NOT 378STRENGTHEN MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION. 379THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO WEAKEN OVER THE UNITED 380STATES AFTER LANDFALL. SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER WATER AFTER 72 381HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL 382SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. 383 384 385FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 386 387INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.3N 75.2W 35 KT 388 12HR VT 17/0600Z 19.9N 77.0W 40 KT 389 24HR VT 17/1800Z 20.9N 79.1W 50 KT...INLAND 390 36HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.7W 55 KT 391 48HR VT 18/1800Z 23.6N 81.6W 55 KT...INLAND 392 72HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W 75 KT 393 96HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND 394120HR VT 21/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND 395 396$$ 397FORECASTER BEVEN 398 399 400WTNT41 KNHC 170246 401TCDAT1 402TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 403NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 4041100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 405 406A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN 407FAY AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 408THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IN 409FACT...GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 410KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. 411SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY 412BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH 413MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. FAY HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF 414CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING 415SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB SINCE 416YESTERDAY...AND IN GENERAL THIS IS AN INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT. 417ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF 418INTENSIFICATION DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE CENTER MOVES...AND 419IF FAY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. AT THIS TIME...THE 420OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING. IF FAY REMAINS 421OVER WATER IT COULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AS 422A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 423GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO 424NOTE THAT THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE NO LONGER INDICATING AN 425AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOST RECENT RUN. 426 427FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM CUBAN RADARS 428INDICATE THAT FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 429KNOTS. FAY IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE 430SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED 431DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A 432NORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. ON THIS 433TRACK...FAY SHOULD BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA 434FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE 435EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST FLORIDA 436COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND MOST OF 437THE MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 438THE SPREAD BECOMES MUCH LARGER BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS 439BRINGING FAY OVER FLORIDA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE GULF OF 440MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS 441IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 442 443ON THIS TRACK...WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF 444SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. 445 446 447FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 448 449INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.4N 76.3W 40 KT 450 12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 45 KT 451 24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 80.0W 55 KT 452 36HR VT 18/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND 453 48HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT 454 72HR VT 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.5W 70 KT 455 96HR VT 21/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND 456120HR VT 22/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 25 KT...INLAND 457 458$$ 459FORECASTER AVILA 460 461 462WTNT41 KNHC 170902 463TCDAT1 464TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 465NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 466500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 467 468THE CENTER OF FAY IS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CUBA TO BE ACCESSIBLE 469TO THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SO THERE ARE NO DIRECT 470MEASUREMENTS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE OR PRECISE POSITIONING OF THE 471SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE 472RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE 473RIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/11. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE 474CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS 475DECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 476GLOBAL MODELS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS OF THE STEERING FLOW 477OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER 478SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE DIPPING INTO THE 479NORTHERN GULF...WHICH TURNS FAY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA 480BEFORE STALLING IT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO 481SHOW A PATH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE RIGHT OF THE 482OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 483GFS AND UKMET...TURN FAY NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF 484MEXICO TO THE EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO 485BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS 486LATTER SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. 487 488RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER 489CORE IS IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH RECONNAISSANCE DROPSONDES NEAR THE 490CENTER SUGGEST THAT THE PRESSURE HAS NOT YET CHANGED MUCH. THE 491UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE AND FAY COULD BE NEAR 492HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE 493SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE 494FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR 495OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. FAY IS 496EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 497GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT 498EXPLICITLY SHOW IT. 499 500 501FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 502 503INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.7N 77.3W 45 KT 504 12HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.9W 50 KT 505 24HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.6W 55 KT...INLAND 506 36HR VT 18/1800Z 23.7N 81.6W 50 KT 507 48HR VT 19/0600Z 25.4N 82.1W 60 KT 508 72HR VT 20/0600Z 29.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND 509 96HR VT 21/0600Z 32.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND 510120HR VT 22/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 511 512$$ 513FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME 514 515 516WTNT41 KNHC 171507 517TCDAT1 518TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 519NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 5201100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 521 522FAY APPEARS A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH 523THE MAIN CONVECTION IN BANDS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND ONLY 524A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY 525ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND A 526SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM CABO CRUZ CUBA REPORTED 45 KT. BASED ON 527THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. 528 529THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN 6 HR 530AGO. FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A LOW/MID LEVEL 531RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS DEVELOPING DUE TO A 532MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN 533SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR...BUT THERE 534REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH OF 535A TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL FORECAST A 536NORTHEASTWARD TURN TAKING FAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE 537ATLANTIC. THE HWRF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A 538NORTHWARD MOTION OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO 539THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THEN...THE NOGPAS CALLS FOR A 540NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 541OVERALL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THE FIRST 54236-48 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST 543THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS THUS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 544TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF 545THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 546 547THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE 548BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WITH 549THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND 550SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING 551TO OCCUR IF FAY CAN DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL 552MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36-48 553HR...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH KEEPS FAY OVER WATER LONGER...FORECASTS 554A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/2 HURRICANE IN 48-60. THE INTENSITY 555FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 556SHIPS MODEL...WITH FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL 557ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN 558FORECAST IF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE FORMS...OR IF IT TRACKS MORE 559TO THE WEST AND STAYS LONGER OVER WATER. 560 561FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 562 563INITIAL 17/1500Z 20.5N 78.6W 45 KT 564 12HR VT 18/0000Z 21.3N 80.0W 50 KT 565 24HR VT 18/1200Z 22.9N 81.4W 55 KT...INLAND 566 36HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER 567 48HR VT 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.2W 70 KT 568 72HR VT 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.0W 50 KT...INLAND 569 96HR VT 21/1200Z 32.5N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND 570120HR VT 22/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 571 572$$ 573FORECASTER BEVEN 574 575 576WTNT41 KNHC 172105 577TCDAT1 578TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 579NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 580500 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 581 582FAY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANZIED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR 583IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION 584NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THERE 585ARE SINGS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR 586ENTRAINMENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHERE THERE IS LITTLE IN 587THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR STRONG WINDS. AN AIR FORCE 588RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL 589PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...ALTHOUGH THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE 590WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 59145 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND A 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE 592FROM TAFB. 593 594THE CENTER OF FAY SURGED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE 595DAY...AT ONE TIME MOVING BETWEEN 18-20 KT. THAT MOTION APPEARS TO 596HAVE ENDED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SOMEWHAT 597UNCERTAIN 300/13. FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A 598LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS DEVELOPING 599DUE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. 600THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR... 601BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON 602HOW MUCH OF A TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS 603CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHARPER TURN WITH LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN 604FLORIDA...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING FAY CROSSING TO THE ATLANTIC THEN 605MOVING WESTWARD TO HIT FLORIDA AGAIN. THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE 606SHIFTED WEST SINCE THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE UKMET HAS 607SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. THESE MODELS HAVE JOINED THE HWRF IN 608CALLING FOR A TRACK NEAR OR JUST OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA 609PENINSULA. THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 610MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE 611ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... 612POSSIBLY DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL POSITION CAUSED BY THE 613MOTION SURGE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE 614WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER 615OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE NEW TRACK 616IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF. 617 618THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW 619FORECASTS PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH 620PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHEAR FROM 18-48 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE 621MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL 622TROUGH WEST OF FAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 623NO CLEAR EVIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF WHICH IS CORRECT. IT APPEARS THE 624SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FAY TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS 625SHOWN IN THE GFDL MODEL...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS 626FOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THOSE LINES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 627HWRF CALLS FOR FAY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE 628EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A PEAK JUST 629BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. 630 631THE FORECAST TRACK SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE CHARELY 632FROM AUGUST 2004...IN THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM 633COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE EVETUAL LANDFALL LOCATION. THE 634NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE OF 635HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA 636PENINSULA. 637 638FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 639 640INITIAL 17/2100Z 21.0N 80.2W 45 KT 641 12HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 81.7W 50 KT...INLAND 642 24HR VT 18/1800Z 23.8N 82.8W 55 KT...OVER WATER 643 36HR VT 19/0600Z 25.3N 83.1W 65 KT 644 48HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 83.2W 75 KT 645 72HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 65 KT...INLAND 646 96HR VT 21/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND 647120HR VT 22/1800Z 37.0N 82.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 648 649$$ 650FORECASTER BEVEN 651 652 653WTNT41 KNHC 180253 654TCDAT1 655TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 656NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 6571100 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 658 659AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS NEAR 0000 UTC SHOWED LITTLE MOTION 660SINCE THE EARLIER FIXES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADAR 661DATA IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE 662MOMENT...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS 663SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS 664OCCURRING JUST TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. 665INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305/9. THE TRACK FORECAST 666REASONING IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER TODAY. FAY IS LIKELY 667TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL 668RIDGE. NOAA G-IV JET DATA SHOW MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS OVER 669THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS A TURN TOWARD 670THE NORTH. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL MODEL HAVE 671SHIFTED...ONCE AGAIN...TO THE EAST. THERE HAVE OBVIOUSLY BEEN SOME 672RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH OUR TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT THIS 673IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE MODEL INITIAL 674CONDITIONS. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL 675FORECAST WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 676 677WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING 45 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY SINCE EARLIER 678TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENTLY OBSERVED FLIGHT-LEVEL 679WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE. HOWEVER IT IS BELIEVED THAT THESE 680WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE STRONG CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF 681THE CENTER WHICH WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT. AN UPPER-LEVEL 682LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE 683OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY 684EVEN BE CAUSING SOME UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE STORM. ON 685THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR 686WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE SOME 687STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WHILE FAY IS OVER WATER DURING THE 688EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 48 HOURS OR SO...SHEAR 689ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF 690OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT 691INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE 692LATEST GFDL AND HWRF MODEL PREDICTIONS. IT SHOULD BE ADDED THAT 693THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST HOWEVER. 694 695IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. A BETTER 696WAY OF ASSESSING YOUR RISK IS TO MAKE USE OF THE WIND SPEED 697PROBABILITIES. THESE DO NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR GIVEN 698LOCATIONS WHEN SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. 699 700FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 701 702INITIAL 18/0300Z 21.4N 80.6W 45 KT 703 12HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 81.7W 50 KT...INLAND 704 24HR VT 19/0000Z 23.8N 82.7W 55 KT 705 36HR VT 19/1200Z 25.3N 82.8W 65 KT 706 48HR VT 20/0000Z 27.0N 82.8W 70 KT 707 72HR VT 21/0000Z 30.5N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND 708 96HR VT 22/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 25 KT...INLAND 709120HR VT 23/0000Z 37.5N 82.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 710 711$$ 712FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS 713 714 715WTNT41 KNHC 180915 716TCDAT1 717TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 718NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 719500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 720 721THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER OF FAY OVER 722CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT APPARENT IN 723RADAR IMAGERY. WITH THIS FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10. 724ASCAT DATA SOUTH OF CUBA PRIOR TO LANDFALL SHOWED THE SURFACE 725CENTER BECOMING ELONGATED...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE 726ASYMMETRY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DISTORTION OF THE SURFACE 727CIRCULATION IS LIKELY DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OVER CUBA. 728ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FAY WILL MAINTAIN A 729NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES 730THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE 731RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...BUT SOME 732ADDITIONAL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT 733CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PERSISTS AND THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERTICALLY 734CONNECTED. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATE 735IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE 736GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR. GIVEN THAT...ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD 737SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 738 739THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...WITH THESE WINDS OCCURRING 740JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. AN UPPER-LEVEL 741LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE 742OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SOME 743WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 744GIVEN THIS PATTERN...RAPID STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE 745SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FAY FROM 746REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE FLORIDA 747PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS 748GUIDANCE. 749 750 751FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 752 753INITIAL 18/0900Z 22.5N 80.9W 45 KT...INLAND 754 12HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W 45 KT 755 24HR VT 19/0600Z 25.1N 82.0W 55 KT 756 36HR VT 19/1800Z 26.6N 82.3W 65 KT 757 48HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 82.2W 60 KT...INLAND 758 72HR VT 21/0600Z 31.1N 82.0W 45 KT...INLAND 759 96HR VT 22/0600Z 33.0N 82.0W 25 KT...INLAND 760120HR VT 23/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 761 762$$ 763FORECASTER FRANKLIN 764 765 766WTNT41 KNHC 181504 767TCDAT1 768TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 769NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 7701100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 771 772THE CENTER OF FAY HAS MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SATELLITE 773IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SHOW STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 774EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN 775SEMICIRCLE. THIS ASYMMETRY IS LIKELY DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL 776SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE 777HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT...WITH 778RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. BASED ON THIS AND 779SIMILAR DOPPLER RADAR WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 78050 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE 781HUNTER IS 1003 MB. 782 783FAY HAS BEEN MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF 784DAYS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 785DURING THE PAST 6 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11. FAY IS 786ENTERING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 787MEXICO AND FLORIDA CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING 788THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36-48 HR...THE 789TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 790BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH 791OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE 792RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION BY FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE GENERALLY 793NORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN 794UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST FAY TO 795TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND STALL BY 120 HR...WHILE 796THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION TOWARD THE 797FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER NOTED 798THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 799OPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THESE OUTLIERS ARE IGNORED FOR THE MOMENT. 800THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE NORTHWARD SCENARIO...LYING 801JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF 802THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OVER THE 803SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HR. 804 805FAY IS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND 806THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL FOR THE 807NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE CURRENT 808STRUCTURE...WILL LIKELY PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER... 809THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF 810MODELS MAKING FAY A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS...THE 811INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. AFTER LANDFALL...FAY SHOULD 812SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR. THIS INTENSITY 813FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT CHANCE FAY 814MIGHT NOT REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY IF 815IT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. 816 817IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004...SMALL 818DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN 819WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL. 820 821FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 822 823INITIAL 18/1500Z 23.6N 81.5W 50 KT 824 12HR VT 19/0000Z 24.6N 81.8W 55 KT 825 24HR VT 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.1W 65 KT 826 36HR VT 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.0W 50 KT...INLAND 827 48HR VT 20/1200Z 29.3N 81.8W 40 KT...INLAND 828 72HR VT 21/1200Z 31.5N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND 829 96HR VT 22/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND 830120HR VT 23/1200Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 831 832$$ 833FORECASTER BEVEN 834 835 836WTNT41 KNHC 182104 837TCDAT1 838TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 839NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 840500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 841 842SATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FAY HAS BECOME 843BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS 844INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER...AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS 845CONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI. ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE 846HAS FALLEN TO 998 MB. HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET CAUSED THE WINDS 847TO INCREASE...AS AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE 848MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 50 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TCU 849WAS ISSUED NOTING LANDFALL WHEN THE WINDS AT KEY WEST WENT CALM AT 8503 PM. LATER DATA SUGGESTS THIS WAS DUE TO A MESOSCALE FEATURE 851ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CENTER OF THE STORM...AND THE TRUE 852CENTER OF FAY IS OVER KEY WEST NOW. 853 854THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10. FAY IS ENTERING A BREAK IN THE 855SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA 856CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN 857UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36-48 HR...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT 858OUT...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED 859STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. 860THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN RESPONDING TO 861THIS PATTERN. THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A NORTH- 862NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND 863THEREAFTER. THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND 864FORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A 865SHARP TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HR. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A 866SIMILAR FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR FAY TO TURN 867NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AND 868MOTION BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AFTER 72 HR. FINALLY...THE GFDL 869AND THE HWRF CONTINUE FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WELL INLAND 870OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SIGNAL FROM 871THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NEW RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BLOCK FAY'S 872PROGRESS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE 873WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE EARLIER PART OF THE TRACK...WHICH 874CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN ABOUT 18 HR FOLLOWED 875BY A TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE 876EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 877 878WHILE FAY REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR 879ENVIRONMENT AND IS BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...THESE CONDITIONS 880ARE NOT SEVERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. THUS...THE 881INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. WHILE 882NOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT...IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE 883LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER 24 HR...THE 884INTENSITY WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON WHETHER FAY IS OVER LAND...AS THE 885UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE CURRENT 886INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON FAY REMAINING OVER LAND AND THUS 887DISSIPATING. IF FAY REGAINS THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF MEXICO 888DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONGER THAN 889FORECAST. 890 891IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004...SMALL 892DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN 893WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA 894COAST. 895 896FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 897 898INITIAL 18/2100Z 24.6N 81.9W 50 KT 899 12HR VT 19/0600Z 25.8N 82.0W 60 KT 900 24HR VT 19/1800Z 27.4N 81.9W 55 KT...INLAND 901 36HR VT 20/0600Z 28.8N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND 902 48HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND 903 72HR VT 21/1800Z 31.0N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND 904 96HR VT 22/1800Z 32.0N 82.5W 25 KT...INLAND 905120HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 84.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 906 907$$ 908FORECASTER BEVEN 909 910 911WTNT41 KNHC 190255 912TCDAT1 913TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 914NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 9151100 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 916 917FAY'S ORGANIZATION HAS WAXED AND WANED THIS EVENING. THE STORM 918BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED IN APPEARANCE ON WSR-88D RADAR 919OBSERVATIONS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THEN 920SHOWED INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING BUT NO CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE. 921AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FALL IN CENTRAL 922PRESSURE BUT NO INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS YET. THE TROPICAL 923CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT ON 924THE EAST SIDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AND 925THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO IMPARTING MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER 926FAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAY TO STRENGTHEN 927INTO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO CROSSING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. OUR 928FORECAST FOR FAY'S WEAKENING OVER THE PENINSULA MORE OR LESS 929FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. 930 931AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION NEAR 360/8. FAY IS 932MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO 933UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE 934DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND U.K. MET 935OFFICE MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FOR FAY'S TREK 936ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO 937ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. AFTER 1-2 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS 938INDICATE THAT THE STEERING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AS A 939MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND BLOCKS THE 940FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS GREAT DIVERSITY 941IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECASTS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE 942PERIOD...AND THEREFORE LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE 943FAY WILL EVENTUALLY GO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN 944THE MIDDLE OF THE HIGHLY SPREAD MODEL TRACKS. THE FORECAST OF 945FAY'S INTENSITY IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME IS OF COURSE HIGHLY 946DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER. SHOULD FAY 947REMAIN VERY NEAR OR OVER LAND...IT WOULD PROBABLY WEAKEN TO 948DISSIPATION SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE. 949 950FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 951 952INITIAL 19/0300Z 25.3N 81.9W 50 KT 953 12HR VT 19/1200Z 26.6N 81.7W 55 KT...INLAND 954 24HR VT 20/0000Z 28.1N 81.3W 40 KT...INLAND 955 36HR VT 20/1200Z 29.2N 81.0W 30 KT...INLAND 956 48HR VT 21/0000Z 30.3N 81.0W 40 KT 957 72HR VT 22/0000Z 31.0N 81.5W 45 KT...INLAND 958 96HR VT 23/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND 959120HR VT 24/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 960 961$$ 962FORECASTER PASCH/PASCH 963 964 965WTNT41 KNHC 190902 966TCDAT1 967TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 968NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 969500 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 970 971SFMR...DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FAY 972DID NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...BEFORE COMING ASHORE. A 973DROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT...AND THERE WERE 974BELIEVABLE 49 KT WINDS FROM THE SFMR. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND 975OBSERVED WAS 61 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS 976SET AT 50 KT. THERE WERE A FEW SFMR WINDS ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAT 977MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN CORRECT...BUT IN ANY EVENT FAY DIDN'T 978MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT 979CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE INTO THE 980ATLANTIC AS FORECAST...FAY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE 981ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND SLIGHT 982RESTRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 983 984THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO A CONSENSUS 985HAS BEEN BUILDING ON FAY BEING TRAPPED BENEATH A MIGRATORY 986MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERLIES...WITH EVEN THE GFDL 987BEGINNING TO BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED NORTHWARD MOTION. THE 988GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE 989OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO 990THE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. 991 992 993FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 994 995INITIAL 19/0900Z 25.9N 81.7W 50 KT...LANDFALL 996 12HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 81.3W 45 KT...INLAND 997 24HR VT 20/0600Z 28.3N 80.9W 35 KT...INLAND 998 36HR VT 20/1800Z 29.3N 80.7W 35 KT 999 48HR VT 21/0600Z 30.0N 81.0W 40 KT 1000 72HR VT 22/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND 1001 96HR VT 23/0600Z 31.0N 83.5W 25 KT...INLAND 1002120HR VT 24/0600Z 31.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1003 1004$$ 1005FORECASTER FRANKLIN 1006 1007 1008WTNT41 KNHC 191445 1009TCDAT1 1010TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 1011NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 10121100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 1013 1014DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A 1015WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF 1016CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES 1017SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE 1018OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB. FAY IS 1019FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 1020HOURS. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO 102148 HOUR PERIOD WHEN FAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER JUST OFF THE 1022FLORIDA EAST COAST. IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON 1023RADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED. 1024AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE 1025SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A 1026STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT 1027RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET. 1028 1029FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS 1030WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH 1031IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS 1032PATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO 1033SLOW DOWN AND THEN...AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER...THE CYCLONE 1034SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR 1035THE GEORGIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL 1036GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE 1037UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR 1038GEORGIA. 1039 1040 1041FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1042 1043INITIAL 19/1500Z 26.7N 81.3W 50 KT...INLAND 1044 12HR VT 20/0000Z 27.9N 80.9W 45 KT...INLAND 1045 24HR VT 20/1200Z 28.9N 80.6W 40 KT...OVER WATER 1046 36HR VT 21/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER 1047 48HR VT 21/1200Z 30.0N 80.9W 45 KT...OVER WATER 1048 72HR VT 22/1200Z 30.6N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1049 96HR VT 23/1200Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1050120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 86.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1051 1052$$ 1053FORECASTER AVILA 1054 1055 1056WTNT41 KNHC 192043 1057TCDAT1 1058TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 1059NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1060500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 1061 1062FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS 1063STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 1064CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR 1065AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A 1066SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS 1067KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE 1068CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER 1069THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION 1070IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS 1071REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 1072 1073THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE 1074AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION 1075IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS 1076EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH 1077AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS 1078FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP 1079NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE 1080TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND 1081GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A 1082GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER 1083WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL 1084FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON. 1085 1086THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH 1087FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST. 1088 1089FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1090 1091INITIAL 19/2100Z 27.3N 81.0W 55 KT...INLAND 1092 12HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER 1093 24HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W 65 KT 1094 36HR VT 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 65 KT 1095 48HR VT 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W 65 KT...INLAND 1096 72HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND 1097 96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND 1098120HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1099 1100$$ 1101FORECASTER AVILA 1102 1103 1104WTNT41 KNHC 200242 1105TCDAT1 1106TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 1107NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 11081100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 1109 1110AFTER FAY'S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA 1111PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE 1112NORMAL FASHION. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS 1113DEGRADED...WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT...AND SURFACE 1114OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 1115AROUND 45 KT. FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS 1116CENTER IS OVER LAND. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED 1117BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE FAY 1118IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER 1119ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE 1120LATEST SHIPS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND 1121HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL 1122FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY 1123DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER. 1124 1125RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND 1126THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE 1127CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...OR 030/4. GLOBAL 1128MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF 1129FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING 1130PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL 1131CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD 1132AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING 1133JUST OFFSHORE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK 1134FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF 1135THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 1136 1137 1138FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1139 1140INITIAL 20/0300Z 27.7N 80.7W 45 KT 1141 12HR VT 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W 50 KT 1142 24HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W 60 KT 1143 36HR VT 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W 65 KT 1144 48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.9N 81.7W 65 KT...INLAND 1145 72HR VT 23/0000Z 30.5N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1146 96HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND 1147120HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW 1148 1149$$ 1150FORECASTER PASCH 1151 1152 1153WTNT41 KNHC 200242 1154TCDAT1 1155TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 1156NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 11571100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 1158 1159AFTER FAY'S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA 1160PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE 1161NORMAL FASHION. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS 1162DEGRADED...WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT...AND SURFACE 1163OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 1164AROUND 45 KT. FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS 1165CENTER IS OVER LAND. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED 1166BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE FAY 1167IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER 1168ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE 1169LATEST SHIPS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND 1170HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL 1171FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY 1172DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER. 1173 1174RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND 1175THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE 1176CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...OR 030/4. GLOBAL 1177MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF 1178FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING 1179PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL 1180CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD 1181AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING 1182JUST OFFSHORE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK 1183FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF 1184THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 1185 1186 1187FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1188 1189INITIAL 20/0300Z 27.7N 80.7W 45 KT 119012HR VT 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W 50 KT 119124HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W 60 KT 119236HR VT 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W 65 KT 119348HR VT 22/0000Z 29.9N 81.7W 65 KT...INLAND 119472HR VT 23/0000Z 30.5N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND 119596HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND 1196120HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW 1197 1198$$ 1199FORECASTER PASCH 1200 1201 1202 1203 1204WTNT41 KNHC 200855 1205TCDAT1 1206TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 1207NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1208500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 1209 1210TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY 1211REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. 1212HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF 1213MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL 1214THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE 1215CANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A 1216TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG 1217ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF 1218OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO 1219THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND 1220ALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF 122180W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE 1222SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO 1223BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 1224 1225THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING 1226SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT 1227EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 1228HOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE 1229FORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE 1230TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS 1231CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS 1232INCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY 1233TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE 1234BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL 1235OUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE 1236OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 1237THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER 1238TO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO 1239HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND 1240OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW 1241AFTER 72 HOURS. 1242 1243 1244FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1245 1246INITIAL 20/0900Z 28.2N 80.6W 45 KT...JUST INLAND 1247 12HR VT 20/1800Z 28.8N 80.6W 50 KT 1248 24HR VT 21/0600Z 29.3N 80.9W 60 KT 1249 36HR VT 21/1800Z 29.6N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND 1250 48HR VT 22/0600Z 30.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1251 72HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 84.1W 30 KT...INLAND 1252 96HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1253120HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1254 1255$$ 1256FORECASTER STEWART 1257 1258 1259WTNT41 KNHC 201444 1260TCDAT1 1261TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 1262NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 12631100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 1264 1265FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED 1266TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY 1267SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY 1268OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 1269HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. 1270SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED 1271WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 1272SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE 1273OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE 1274TO THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS 1275SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE 1276LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP 1277THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR. 1278 1279FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...ABOUT 3 KNOTS... 1280WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A MID-LEVEL 1281RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD 1282STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL 1283FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA 1284FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT 1285BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE...SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN 1286FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF 1287MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE 1288OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL 1289MODELS. 1290 1291 1292FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1293 1294INITIAL 20/1500Z 28.6N 80.6W 45 KT 1295 12HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.6W 45 KT 1296 24HR VT 21/1200Z 29.4N 81.2W 50 KT...INLAND 1297 36HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 82.2W 35 KT...INLAND 1298 48HR VT 22/1200Z 30.0N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1299 72HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 1300 96HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1301120HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1302 1303$$ 1304FORECASTER AVILA 1305 1306 1307WTNT41 KNHC 200855 1308TCDAT1 1309TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 1310NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1311500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 1312 1313TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY 1314REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. 1315HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF 1316MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL 1317THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE 1318CANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A 1319TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG 1320ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF 1321OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO 1322THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND 1323ALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF 132480W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE 1325SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO 1326BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 1327 1328THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING 1329SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT 1330EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 1331HOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE 1332FORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE 1333TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS 1334CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS 1335INCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY 1336TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE 1337BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL 1338OUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE 1339OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 1340THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER 1341TO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO 1342HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND 1343OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW 1344AFTER 72 HOURS. 1345 1346 1347FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1348 1349INITIAL 20/0900Z 28.2N 80.6W 45 KT...JUST INLAND 135012HR VT 20/1800Z 28.8N 80.6W 50 KT 135124HR VT 21/0600Z 29.3N 80.9W 60 KT 135236HR VT 21/1800Z 29.6N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND 135348HR VT 22/0600Z 30.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND 135472HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 84.1W 30 KT...INLAND 135596HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1356120HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1357 1358$$ 1359FORECASTER STEWART 1360 1361 1362 1363 1364WTNT41 KNHC 201444 1365TCDAT1 1366TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 1367NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 13681100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 1369 1370FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED 1371TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY 1372SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY 1373OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 1374HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. 1375SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED 1376WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 1377SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE 1378OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE 1379TO THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS 1380SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE 1381LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP 1382THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR. 1383 1384FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...ABOUT 3 KNOTS... 1385WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A MID-LEVEL 1386RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD 1387STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL 1388FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA 1389FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT 1390BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE...SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN 1391FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF 1392MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE 1393OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL 1394MODELS. 1395 1396 1397FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1398 1399INITIAL 20/1500Z 28.6N 80.6W 45 KT 140012HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.6W 45 KT 140124HR VT 21/1200Z 29.4N 81.2W 50 KT...INLAND 140236HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 82.2W 35 KT...INLAND 140348HR VT 22/1200Z 30.0N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND 140472HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 140596HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1406120HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1407 1408$$ 1409FORECASTER AVILA 1410 1411 1412 1413 1414WTNT41 KNHC 202032 1415TCDAT1 1416TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 1417NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1418500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 1419 1420FAY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR 1421DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS 1422SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE. 1423SURFACE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY 1424REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE 1425FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SOME 1426SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...IF AT ALL. 1427 1428FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT BEGAN TO 1429DRIFT NORTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE 1430DEVELOPING NORTH OF FAY IS ALREADY BLOCKING ITS NORTHWARD 1431PROGRESSION AND FAY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD 1432THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE 1433REGARDING THE SLOW MOTION IS THAT FAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DUMP 1434TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH...AND WILL PROBABLY BE REMEMBERED 1435AS A VERY WET STORM. THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST 1436KEEPING FAY OVER LAND IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS 1437AND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK GUIDANCE. ONLY THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS 1438FAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 1439 1440 1441FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1442 1443INITIAL 20/2100Z 28.8N 80.5W 45 KT 1444 12HR VT 21/0600Z 29.2N 80.9W 50 KT 1445 24HR VT 21/1800Z 29.5N 81.8W 45 KT...INLAND 1446 36HR VT 22/0600Z 29.8N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND 1447 48HR VT 22/1800Z 30.2N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1448 72HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 86.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 1449 96HR VT 24/1800Z 32.5N 88.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1450120HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1451 1452$$ 1453FORECASTER AVILA 1454 1455 1456WTNT41 KNHC 210300 1457TCDAT1 1458TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 1459NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 14601100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 1461 1462FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF 1463THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D 1464RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. 1465DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM 1466HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS 1467WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE. WSR-88D 1468VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE 1469RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE MOST 1470RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE 1471HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE 1472FAY IN A FEW HOURS. 1473 1474A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE 1475MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY 1476WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL 1477HOURS. BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF 1478FLORIDA...SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR 1479STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT 1480INTENSIFICATION. ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA 1481PENINSULA TOMORROW...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. A GENERAL 1482WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 1483RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW 1484DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND 1485SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED 1486BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS 1487THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF 1488FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE 1489TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT 1490TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW. 1491IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD 1492WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. 1493 1494REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 1495DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 1496AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 1497 1498FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1499 1500INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT 1501 12HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT...INLAND 1502 24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND 1503 36HR VT 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND 1504 48HR VT 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W 30 KT...INLAND 1505 72HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND 1506 96HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1507120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1508 1509$$ 1510FORECASTER KNABB 1511 1512 1513WTNT41 KNHC 210849 1514TCDAT1 1515TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 1516NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1517500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 1518 1519AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING. 1520THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62 1521KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT...WITH PEAK ACTUAL 1522SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE 1523SFMR. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB. 1524BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT. 1525 1526AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT...FAY IS NEARLY 1527STATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO 1528THE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT 1529STALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD 1530WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 1531LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS 1532EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE 1533SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A 1534GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST 1535CYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A 1536TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE 1537OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET 1538GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 1539TRACK. 1540 1541THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE 1542LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY 1543DEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST 1544QUADRANT. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME 1545INTENSIFICATION...THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE WOULD 1546ARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSUMING 1547THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER 1548THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL 1549ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT... 1550HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF 1551OF MEXICO. 1552 1553REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 1554DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 1555AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 1556 1557 1558FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1559 1560INITIAL 21/0900Z 29.1N 80.7W 50 KT 1561 12HR VT 21/1800Z 29.4N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND 1562 24HR VT 22/0600Z 29.6N 82.5W 40 KT...INLAND 1563 36HR VT 22/1800Z 30.0N 83.9W 30 KT...ALONG FL GULF COAST 1564 48HR VT 23/0600Z 30.3N 85.1W 30 KT...INLAND 1565 72HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1566 96HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1567120HR VT 26/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 1568 1569$$ 1570FORECASTER FRANKLIN 1571 1572 1573WTNT41 KNHC 211441 1574TCDAT1 1575TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 1576NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 15771100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 1578 1579THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING 1580FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST 1581MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND 1582FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. 1583SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION 1584MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED 1585UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING 1586RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT 1587APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER 1588CORE. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR 1589STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO 1590SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES 1591INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY SHOULD 1592BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING 1593THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY 1594SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE 1595POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS 1596OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. 1597 1598STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS 1599BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE 1600DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN 1601SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 1602OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED 1603YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO 1604OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON. 1605THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. 1606 1607REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 1608DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 1609AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 1610 1611 1612 1613 1614FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1615 1616INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.3N 80.8W 50 KT 1617 12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.5N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND 1618 24HR VT 22/1200Z 29.6N 82.7W 40 KT...INLAND 1619 36HR VT 23/0000Z 29.8N 84.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 1620 48HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1621 72HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1622 96HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND 1623120HR VT 26/1200Z 32.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1624 1625$$ 1626FORECASTER AVILA 1627 1628 1629WTNT41 KNHC 212032 1630TCDAT1 1631TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 1632NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1633500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 1634 1635NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 1636SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION 1637HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM 1638PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES 1639REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND 1640UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND 1641RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 164250 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE 1643NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE 1644COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL 1645WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. 1646 1647FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. 1648THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING 1649THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE 1650AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE. 1651 1652SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF 1653COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER 1654THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. 1655THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED 1656THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA 1657GULF COAST. 1658 1659REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 1660DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 1661AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 1662 1663FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1664 1665INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.4N 81.4W 50 KT 1666 12HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND 1667 24HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND 1668 36HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.8W 30 KT...INLAND 1669 48HR VT 23/1800Z 30.4N 86.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1670 72HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1671 96HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1672120HR VT 26/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1673 1674$$ 1675FORECASTER AVILA 1676 1677 1678WTNT41 KNHC 220300 1679TCDAT1 1680TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 1681NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 16821100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 1683 1684FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND 1685THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING 1686WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST 1687FLORIDA COAST. THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY HAS 1688DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WSR-88D 1689VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH AND 1690EAST OF THE CENTER REMAIN AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT...ALTHOUGH THAT 1691RADAR FEATURE HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING. 1692 1693EVEN THOUGH WE SAID THIS LAST NIGHT...AND IT DID NOT HAPPEN...ALL OF 1694THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FAY SHOULD START TRULY MOVING 1695WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE 1696BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THAT RIDGE SHOULD KEEP FAY ON 1697A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW 1698DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH SINCE THE 1699LAST CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THAT OF THE 1700PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKING FAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. 1701SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE 1702SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WHILE THE 1703GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET FORECAST FAY TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE 1704PANHANDLE. LATER...AT 3 TO 5 DAYS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS 1705ANOTHER SLOWDOWN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 1706BLOCKS FAY'S FORWARD PROGRESS AGAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS 1707ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS. 1708 1709THE EXACT TRACK COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW STRONG FAY IS 1710AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE MORE 1711SOUTHERLY TRACKS ARE CORRECT AND FAY SPENDS A GOOD BIT OF TIME 1712CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEYOND 171324 HOURS...BUT IF THE OPPOSITE OCCURS AND IT NEVER EMERGES BACK 1714OVER WATER...PERMANENT WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION COULD HAPPEN 1715WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG 1716THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...AND USING THE INTENSITY MODEL 1717CONSENSUS AS GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS 1718FAY AS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...REQUIRING THE 1719ISSUANCE OF NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. 1720 1721REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 1722DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 1723AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 1724 1725 1726 1727FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1728 1729INITIAL 22/0300Z 29.3N 81.4W 50 KT 1730 12HR VT 22/1200Z 29.4N 82.3W 40 KT...INLAND 1731 24HR VT 23/0000Z 29.6N 83.7W 35 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO 1732 36HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.3W 35 KT...INLAND 1733 48HR VT 24/0000Z 30.4N 86.7W 35 KT...NEAR COAST 1734 72HR VT 25/0000Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1735 96HR VT 26/0000Z 31.2N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1736120HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND 1737 1738$$ 1739FORECASTER KNABB 1740 1741 1742WTNT41 KNHC 220905 1743TCDAT1 1744TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 1745NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1746500 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 1747 1748SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN 1749THE STRUCTURE OF FAY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE 1750STRONGEST WINDS 50 N MI OR MORE FROM THE CENTER AND THE STRONGEST 1751RAINBANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. 1752WSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE 1753INTENSITY...WHICH IS SET AT 45 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS 1754OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO POOR 1755ELSEWHERE. 1756 1757FAY HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE INITIAL 1758MOTION OF 280/5. THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING 1759DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE 1760LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 176148-72 HR. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE FAY TO MOVE SLOWLY 1762WESTWARD...WITH ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. 1763THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST 1764THAN PREVIOUSLY...AS THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION 1765BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HR THAN IT DID 6 HR AGO. AFTER 72 HR... 1766MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS 1767FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN 1768NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD 1769AT THIS POINT...SO THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW 1770NORTHEASTERLY MOTION. 1771 1772DUE TO FAY'S PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT 1773ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL 1774NOT LIKELY BE OVER WATER LONG ENOUGH TO INTENSITY. ON THIS 1775BASIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG 1776THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. IF FAY MOVES 1777TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL MOVE INLAND EARLIER 1778AND WEAKEN FASTER. IF IT MOVES LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK MORE 1779OVER OPEN WATER...IT COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER... 1780THE CURRENT BROAD STRUCTURE IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE RAPID 1781INTENSIFICATION. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WESTERLY SHEAR TO 1782IMPACT FAY STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STOP 1783INTENSIFICATION REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS OVER WATER OR NOT. 1784 1785REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 1786DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 1787AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 1788 1789 1790FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1791 1792INITIAL 22/0900Z 29.6N 82.2W 45 KT...INLAND 1793 12HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 83.2W 40 KT...INLAND 1794 24HR VT 23/0600Z 29.8N 84.6W 35 KT 1795 36HR VT 23/1800Z 30.1N 86.1W 35 KT 1796 48HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND 1797 72HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1798 96HR VT 26/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1799120HR VT 27/0600Z 32.0N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 1800 1801$$ 1802FORECASTER BEVEN 1803 1804 1805WTNT41 KNHC 221439 1806TCDAT1 1807TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 1808NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 18091100 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 1810 1811FAY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT 1812HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED 1813FROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY OVER WATER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 1814CONTINUES WELL ESTABLISHED. BASED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE 1815OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 40 1816KNOTS. THE INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL CAUSE FAY TO WEAKEN BUT 1817BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 1818WATER...FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 181924 TO 36 HOURS. 1820 1821THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18224 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE 1823NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE 1824ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...FAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO 1825MOVE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3 1826DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND 1827FAY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. BY THEN...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 1828A REMNANT LOW. 1829 1830REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 1831DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 1832AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 1833 1834 1835FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1836 1837INITIAL 22/1500Z 29.6N 82.7W 40 KT 1838 12HR VT 23/0000Z 29.7N 83.5W 40 KT...INLAND 1839 24HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.0W 35 KT...INLAND 1840 36HR VT 24/0000Z 30.3N 86.5W 35 KT 1841 48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.6N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 1842 72HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1843 96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND 1844120HR VT 27/1200Z 32.5N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1845 1846$$ 1847FORECASTER AVILA 1848 1849 1850WTNT41 KNHC 222027 1851TCDAT1 1852TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 1853NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1854500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 1855 1856THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS 1857NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 1858OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 1859KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A 1860PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY 1861COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 1862HOURS. 1863 1864THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18654 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 1866UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN 1867SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A 1868GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST 1869TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS 1870EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. 1871 1872REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 1873DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 1874AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 1875 1876 1877FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1878 1879INITIAL 22/2100Z 29.8N 83.2W 40 KT 1880 12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.1W 40 KT 1881 24HR VT 23/1800Z 30.2N 85.9W 35 KT...INLAND 1882 36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 1883 48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND 1884 72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 1885 96HR VT 26/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 1886120HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 91.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 1887 1888$$ 1889FORECASTER AVILA 1890 1891 1892WTNT41 KNHC 230300 1893TCDAT1 1894TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 1895NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 18961100 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 1897 1898THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA 1899NEAR KEATON BEACH AT ABOUT 2200 UTC...EMERGING OVER APALACHEE BAY 1900IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION CENTER 1901ITSELF IS NOT ESPECIALLY WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY...BUT A 1902POTENT NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER IN THE 1903SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE 1904RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THIS BAND ARE 1905ABOUT 45 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. AN EXPANSIVE RAIN 1906SHIELD EXTENDS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND WHILE 1907WINDS ARE GUSTY IN THOSE REGIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL 1908STORM FORCE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING INLAND. 1909 1910THE AIRCRAFT FIXES LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7...AS 1911FAY LUMBERS ALONG TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1912MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT RIDGE 1913SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE FAY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 1914AT SPEED SIMILAR TO THAT CURRENTLY OBSERVED. AS A RESULT...FAY 1915WILL BE SKIRTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI 1916COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS 1917ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 48 1918HOURS. THEREAFTER...MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE STEERING CURRENTS 1919TO COLLAPSE AGAIN...AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ENSUE REGARDING WHERE AND 1920HOW FAST A WEAKENING FAY WILL GO. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW 1921RELATIVELY LITTLE NET MOTION ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL 1922TRACK FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLOW BEND TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF 1923THE FORECAST PERIOD. 1924 1925THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48 1926HOURS OR SO...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO 1927SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO FORECAST 1928WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...GIVEN THAT FAY WILL REMAIN 1929NEAR THE COAST AND APPEARS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH IN STRUCTURE. 1930BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND A GRADUAL RAMPING 1931UP OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW 1932OFFICIAL FORECAST OF FAY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 1933COUPLE OF DAYS REQUIRES A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL WATCHES 1934AND WARNINGS. 1935 1936REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 1937DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 1938AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 1939 1940 1941FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1942 1943INITIAL 23/0300Z 29.7N 84.2W 45 KT 1944 12HR VT 23/1200Z 29.8N 85.3W 45 KT...NEAR COAST 1945 24HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 86.9W 45 KT...OVER WATER 1946 36HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 88.5W 40 KT...NEAR COAST 1947 48HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND 1948 72HR VT 26/0000Z 30.5N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 1949 96HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND 1950120HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 90.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 1951 1952$$ 1953FORECASTER KNABB 1954 1955 1956WTNT41 KNHC 230858 1957TCDAT1 1958TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 1959NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1960500 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 1961 1962RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY MADE LANDFALL 1963ABOUT 0600 UTC JUST SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE FLORIDA. THE LATEST 1964IMAGERY FROM THE WSR-88D IN TALLAHASSEE SHOWS A DECREASE IN 1965CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND AN INCREASE ON CONVECTION BANDING 1966AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE ARE NO 1967RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS FROM 1968EITHER LAND OR MARINE STATIONS...SO THE INTENSITY IS A LITTLE 1969UNCERTAIN. BASED MAINLY ON DOPPLER WIND VELOCITIES...THE INITIAL 1970INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER 1971WINDS OF NEAR 65 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF 1972THE CENTER...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THESE WINDS ARE NOT 1973MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. 1974 1975THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 275/6...AS THE CENTER 1976OCCASIONALLY SURGES AHEAD FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LITTLE MOVEMENT. 1977FAY REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED 1978STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN 1979AFTER 24-48 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1980UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS 1981FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS 1982EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER FAY WESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...THEN STEER THE 1983CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY 1984AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AFTER 48 HR THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE 1985SPREAD IN THE SPEED OF THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF 1986ARE THE FASTEST WITH THIS MOTION...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH FORECASTS 1987FAY TO MAKE A LOOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IS THE SLOWEST. 1988THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 198972 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF 1990THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE 1991LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL 1992CONSENSUS. 1993 1994FAY WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND 1995ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE 1996CONTROLLED MAINLY BY HOW MUCH LAND THE STORM ENCOUNTERS. ON THE 1997FORECAST TRACK...ENOUGH OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER WATER FOR 1998THE NEXT 72 HR TO MAINTAIN FAY AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS IS 1999REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THE STORM 2000COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT GOES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST 2001TRACK. AFTER 72 HR...FAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH INLAND AND IN ENOUGH 2002VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CAUSE IT TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW. 2003 2004REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2005DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2006AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2007 2008FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2009 2010INITIAL 23/0900Z 29.9N 84.9W 40 KT...INLAND 2011 12HR VT 23/1800Z 30.0N 86.0W 40 KT...OVER WATER 2012 24HR VT 24/0600Z 30.3N 87.5W 40 KT...INLAND 2013 36HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 89.1W 40 KT...INLAND 2014 48HR VT 25/0600Z 30.5N 90.4W 35 KT...INLAND 2015 72HR VT 26/0600Z 30.5N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 2016 96HR VT 27/0600Z 32.1N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 2017120HR VT 28/0600Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 2018 2019$$ 2020FORECASTER BEVEN 2021 2022 2023WTNT41 KNHC 231439 2024TCDAT1 2025TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 2026NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 20271100 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 2028 2029FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD WITH HALF OF ITS CIRCULATION 2030OVER WATER AND HALF OVER LAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT 2031THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE 2032DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE 2033BANDS WITH THE STRONGEST ONE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL 2034INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS AND BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE 2035CIRCULATION IS OVER WATER...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL 2036STORM STRENGTH FOR THE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS 2037THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER INLAND A MORE DEFINITE WEAKENING 2038SHOULD BEGIN. 2039 2040THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK AND FAY IS MOVING 2041WESTWARD OT 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. FAY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY 2042MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 2043THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY 2044IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 2045AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR REMAIN NEARLY 2046STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION 2047PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. THE 2048OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 2049 2050REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2051DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2052AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2053 2054 2055FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2056 2057INITIAL 23/1500Z 30.1N 85.6W 40 KT 2058 12HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 86.8W 40 KT 2059 24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 88.4W 40 KT...INLAND 2060 36HR VT 25/0000Z 30.6N 89.5W 40 KT...INLAND 2061 48HR VT 25/1200Z 30.7N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND 2062 72HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 30 KT...INLAND 2063 96HR VT 27/1200Z 32.5N 90.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 2064120HR VT 28/1200Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2065 2066$$ 2067FORECASTER AVILA 2068 2069 2070WTNT41 KNHC 232034 2071TCDAT1 2072TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 2073NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 2074500 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 2075 2076SURFACE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE 2077CENTER OF FAY IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE 2078INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...THE CIRCULATION IS 2079GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO 2080CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS 2081EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. 2082 2083FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS 2084MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 2085THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY 2086COULD REMAIN MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH BY 2087THEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT 2088LOW...IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS 2089PATH AND THE EMPHASIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THESE RAINS. 2090 2091 2092FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2093 2094INITIAL 23/2100Z 30.6N 86.3W 40 KT 2095 12HR VT 24/0600Z 30.9N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND 2096 24HR VT 24/1800Z 31.2N 89.7W 30 KT...INLAND 2097 36HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 2098 48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 2099 72HR VT 26/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 2100 96HR VT 27/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 2101120HR VT 28/1800Z 34.5N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2102 2103$$ 2104FORECASTER AVILA 2105 2106 2107WTNT41 KNHC 202032 2108TCDAT1 2109TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 2110NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 2111500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 2112 2113FAY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR 2114DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS 2115SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE. 2116SURFACE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY 2117REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE 2118FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SOME 2119SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...IF AT ALL. 2120 2121FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT BEGAN TO 2122DRIFT NORTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE 2123DEVELOPING NORTH OF FAY IS ALREADY BLOCKING ITS NORTHWARD 2124PROGRESSION AND FAY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD 2125THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE 2126REGARDING THE SLOW MOTION IS THAT FAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DUMP 2127TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH...AND WILL PROBABLY BE REMEMBERED 2128AS A VERY WET STORM. THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST 2129KEEPING FAY OVER LAND IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS 2130AND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK GUIDANCE. ONLY THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS 2131FAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 2132 2133 2134FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2135 2136INITIAL 20/2100Z 28.8N 80.5W 45 KT 213712HR VT 21/0600Z 29.2N 80.9W 50 KT 213824HR VT 21/1800Z 29.5N 81.8W 45 KT...INLAND 213936HR VT 22/0600Z 29.8N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND 214048HR VT 22/1800Z 30.2N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND 214172HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 86.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 214296HR VT 24/1800Z 32.5N 88.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2143120HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2144 2145$$ 2146FORECASTER AVILA 2147 2148 2149 2150 2151WTNT41 KNHC 210300 2152TCDAT1 2153TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 2154NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 21551100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 2156 2157FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF 2158THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D 2159RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. 2160DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM 2161HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS 2162WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE. WSR-88D 2163VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE 2164RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE MOST 2165RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE 2166HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE 2167FAY IN A FEW HOURS. 2168 2169A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE 2170MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY 2171WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL 2172HOURS. BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF 2173FLORIDA...SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR 2174STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT 2175INTENSIFICATION. ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA 2176PENINSULA TOMORROW...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. A GENERAL 2177WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 2178RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW 2179DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND 2180SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED 2181BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS 2182THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF 2183FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE 2184TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT 2185TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW. 2186IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD 2187WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. 2188 2189REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2190DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2191AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2192 2193FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2194 2195INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT 219612HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT...INLAND 219724HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND 219836HR VT 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND 219948HR VT 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W 30 KT...INLAND 220072HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND 220196HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2202120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2203 2204$$ 2205FORECASTER KNABB 2206 2207 2208 2209 2210WTNT41 KNHC 210849 2211TCDAT1 2212TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 2213NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 2214500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 2215 2216AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING. 2217THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62 2218KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT...WITH PEAK ACTUAL 2219SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE 2220SFMR. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB. 2221BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT. 2222 2223AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT...FAY IS NEARLY 2224STATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO 2225THE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT 2226STALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD 2227WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 2228LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS 2229EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE 2230SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A 2231GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST 2232CYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A 2233TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE 2234OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET 2235GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 2236TRACK. 2237 2238THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE 2239LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY 2240DEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST 2241QUADRANT. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME 2242INTENSIFICATION...THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE WOULD 2243ARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSUMING 2244THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER 2245THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL 2246ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT... 2247HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF 2248OF MEXICO. 2249 2250REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2251DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2252AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2253 2254 2255FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2256 2257INITIAL 21/0900Z 29.1N 80.7W 50 KT 225812HR VT 21/1800Z 29.4N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND 225924HR VT 22/0600Z 29.6N 82.5W 40 KT...INLAND 226036HR VT 22/1800Z 30.0N 83.9W 30 KT...ALONG FL GULF COAST 226148HR VT 23/0600Z 30.3N 85.1W 30 KT...INLAND 226272HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 226396HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND 2264120HR VT 26/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 2265 2266$$ 2267FORECASTER FRANKLIN 2268 2269 2270 2271 2272WTNT41 KNHC 211441 2273TCDAT1 2274TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 2275NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 22761100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 2277 2278THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING 2279FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST 2280MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND 2281FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. 2282SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION 2283MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED 2284UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING 2285RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT 2286APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER 2287CORE. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR 2288STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO 2289SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES 2290INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY SHOULD 2291BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING 2292THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY 2293SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE 2294POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS 2295OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. 2296 2297STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS 2298BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE 2299DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN 2300SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 2301OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED 2302YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO 2303OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON. 2304THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. 2305 2306REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2307DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2308AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2309 2310 2311 2312 2313FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2314 2315INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.3N 80.8W 50 KT 231612HR VT 22/0000Z 29.5N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND 231724HR VT 22/1200Z 29.6N 82.7W 40 KT...INLAND 231836HR VT 23/0000Z 29.8N 84.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 231948HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND 232072HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND 232196HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND 2322120HR VT 26/1200Z 32.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2323 2324$$ 2325FORECASTER AVILA 2326 2327 2328 2329 2330WTNT41 KNHC 212032 2331TCDAT1 2332TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 2333NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 2334500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 2335 2336NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 2337SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION 2338HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM 2339PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES 2340REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND 2341UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND 2342RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 234350 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE 2344NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE 2345COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL 2346WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. 2347 2348FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. 2349THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING 2350THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE 2351AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE. 2352 2353SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF 2354COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER 2355THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. 2356THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED 2357THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA 2358GULF COAST. 2359 2360REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2361DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2362AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2363 2364FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2365 2366INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.4N 81.4W 50 KT 236712HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND 236824HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND 236936HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.8W 30 KT...INLAND 237048HR VT 23/1800Z 30.4N 86.5W 30 KT...INLAND 237172HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 237296HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND 2373120HR VT 26/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2374 2375$$ 2376FORECASTER AVILA 2377 2378 2379 2380 2381WTNT41 KNHC 220300 2382TCDAT1 2383TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 2384NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 23851100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 2386 2387FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND 2388THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING 2389WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST 2390FLORIDA COAST. THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY HAS 2391DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WSR-88D 2392VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH AND 2393EAST OF THE CENTER REMAIN AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT...ALTHOUGH THAT 2394RADAR FEATURE HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING. 2395 2396EVEN THOUGH WE SAID THIS LAST NIGHT...AND IT DID NOT HAPPEN...ALL OF 2397THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FAY SHOULD START TRULY MOVING 2398WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE 2399BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THAT RIDGE SHOULD KEEP FAY ON 2400A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW 2401DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH SINCE THE 2402LAST CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THAT OF THE 2403PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKING FAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. 2404SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE 2405SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WHILE THE 2406GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET FORECAST FAY TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE 2407PANHANDLE. LATER...AT 3 TO 5 DAYS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS 2408ANOTHER SLOWDOWN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 2409BLOCKS FAY'S FORWARD PROGRESS AGAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS 2410ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS. 2411 2412THE EXACT TRACK COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW STRONG FAY IS 2413AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE MORE 2414SOUTHERLY TRACKS ARE CORRECT AND FAY SPENDS A GOOD BIT OF TIME 2415CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEYOND 241624 HOURS...BUT IF THE OPPOSITE OCCURS AND IT NEVER EMERGES BACK 2417OVER WATER...PERMANENT WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION COULD HAPPEN 2418WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG 2419THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...AND USING THE INTENSITY MODEL 2420CONSENSUS AS GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS 2421FAY AS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...REQUIRING THE 2422ISSUANCE OF NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. 2423 2424REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2425DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2426AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2427 2428 2429 2430FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2431 2432INITIAL 22/0300Z 29.3N 81.4W 50 KT 243312HR VT 22/1200Z 29.4N 82.3W 40 KT...INLAND 243424HR VT 23/0000Z 29.6N 83.7W 35 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO 243536HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.3W 35 KT...INLAND 243648HR VT 24/0000Z 30.4N 86.7W 35 KT...NEAR COAST 243772HR VT 25/0000Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 243896HR VT 26/0000Z 31.2N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND 2439120HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND 2440 2441$$ 2442FORECASTER KNABB 2443 2444 2445 2446 2447WTNT41 KNHC 220905 2448TCDAT1 2449TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 2450NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 2451500 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 2452 2453SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN 2454THE STRUCTURE OF FAY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE 2455STRONGEST WINDS 50 N MI OR MORE FROM THE CENTER AND THE STRONGEST 2456RAINBANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. 2457WSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE 2458INTENSITY...WHICH IS SET AT 45 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS 2459OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO POOR 2460ELSEWHERE. 2461 2462FAY HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE INITIAL 2463MOTION OF 280/5. THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING 2464DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE 2465LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 246648-72 HR. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE FAY TO MOVE SLOWLY 2467WESTWARD...WITH ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. 2468THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST 2469THAN PREVIOUSLY...AS THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION 2470BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HR THAN IT DID 6 HR AGO. AFTER 72 HR... 2471MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS 2472FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN 2473NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD 2474AT THIS POINT...SO THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW 2475NORTHEASTERLY MOTION. 2476 2477DUE TO FAY'S PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT 2478ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL 2479NOT LIKELY BE OVER WATER LONG ENOUGH TO INTENSITY. ON THIS 2480BASIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG 2481THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. IF FAY MOVES 2482TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL MOVE INLAND EARLIER 2483AND WEAKEN FASTER. IF IT MOVES LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK MORE 2484OVER OPEN WATER...IT COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER... 2485THE CURRENT BROAD STRUCTURE IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE RAPID 2486INTENSIFICATION. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WESTERLY SHEAR TO 2487IMPACT FAY STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STOP 2488INTENSIFICATION REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS OVER WATER OR NOT. 2489 2490REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2491DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2492AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2493 2494 2495FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2496 2497INITIAL 22/0900Z 29.6N 82.2W 45 KT...INLAND 249812HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 83.2W 40 KT...INLAND 249924HR VT 23/0600Z 29.8N 84.6W 35 KT 250036HR VT 23/1800Z 30.1N 86.1W 35 KT 250148HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND 250272HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND 250396HR VT 26/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND 2504120HR VT 27/0600Z 32.0N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 2505 2506$$ 2507FORECASTER BEVEN 2508 2509 2510 2511 2512WTNT41 KNHC 221439 2513TCDAT1 2514TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 2515NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 25161100 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 2517 2518FAY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT 2519HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED 2520FROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY OVER WATER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 2521CONTINUES WELL ESTABLISHED. BASED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE 2522OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 40 2523KNOTS. THE INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL CAUSE FAY TO WEAKEN BUT 2524BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 2525WATER...FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 252624 TO 36 HOURS. 2527 2528THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 25294 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE 2530NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE 2531ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...FAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO 2532MOVE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3 2533DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND 2534FAY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. BY THEN...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 2535A REMNANT LOW. 2536 2537REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2538DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2539AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2540 2541 2542FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2543 2544INITIAL 22/1500Z 29.6N 82.7W 40 KT 254512HR VT 23/0000Z 29.7N 83.5W 40 KT...INLAND 254624HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.0W 35 KT...INLAND 254736HR VT 24/0000Z 30.3N 86.5W 35 KT 254848HR VT 24/1200Z 30.6N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 254972HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND 255096HR VT 26/1200Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND 2551120HR VT 27/1200Z 32.5N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2552 2553$$ 2554FORECASTER AVILA 2555 2556 2557 2558 2559WTNT41 KNHC 222027 2560TCDAT1 2561TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 2562NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 2563500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 2564 2565THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS 2566NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 2567OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 2568KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A 2569PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY 2570COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 2571HOURS. 2572 2573THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 25744 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 2575UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN 2576SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A 2577GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST 2578TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS 2579EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. 2580 2581REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2582DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2583AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2584 2585 2586FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2587 2588INITIAL 22/2100Z 29.8N 83.2W 40 KT 258912HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.1W 40 KT 259024HR VT 23/1800Z 30.2N 85.9W 35 KT...INLAND 259136HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 259248HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND 259372HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 259496HR VT 26/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 2595120HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 91.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2596 2597$$ 2598FORECASTER AVILA 2599 2600 2601 2602 2603WTNT41 KNHC 230300 2604TCDAT1 2605TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 2606NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 26071100 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 2608 2609THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA 2610NEAR KEATON BEACH AT ABOUT 2200 UTC...EMERGING OVER APALACHEE BAY 2611IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION CENTER 2612ITSELF IS NOT ESPECIALLY WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY...BUT A 2613POTENT NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER IN THE 2614SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE 2615RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THIS BAND ARE 2616ABOUT 45 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. AN EXPANSIVE RAIN 2617SHIELD EXTENDS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND WHILE 2618WINDS ARE GUSTY IN THOSE REGIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL 2619STORM FORCE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING INLAND. 2620 2621THE AIRCRAFT FIXES LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7...AS 2622FAY LUMBERS ALONG TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 2623MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT RIDGE 2624SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE FAY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 2625AT SPEED SIMILAR TO THAT CURRENTLY OBSERVED. AS A RESULT...FAY 2626WILL BE SKIRTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI 2627COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS 2628ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 48 2629HOURS. THEREAFTER...MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE STEERING CURRENTS 2630TO COLLAPSE AGAIN...AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ENSUE REGARDING WHERE AND 2631HOW FAST A WEAKENING FAY WILL GO. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW 2632RELATIVELY LITTLE NET MOTION ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL 2633TRACK FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLOW BEND TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF 2634THE FORECAST PERIOD. 2635 2636THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48 2637HOURS OR SO...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO 2638SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO FORECAST 2639WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...GIVEN THAT FAY WILL REMAIN 2640NEAR THE COAST AND APPEARS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH IN STRUCTURE. 2641BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND A GRADUAL RAMPING 2642UP OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW 2643OFFICIAL FORECAST OF FAY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 2644COUPLE OF DAYS REQUIRES A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL WATCHES 2645AND WARNINGS. 2646 2647REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2648DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2649AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2650 2651 2652FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2653 2654INITIAL 23/0300Z 29.7N 84.2W 45 KT 265512HR VT 23/1200Z 29.8N 85.3W 45 KT...NEAR COAST 265624HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 86.9W 45 KT...OVER WATER 265736HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 88.5W 40 KT...NEAR COAST 265848HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND 265972HR VT 26/0000Z 30.5N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 266096HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND 2661120HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 90.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 2662 2663$$ 2664FORECASTER KNABB 2665 2666 2667 2668 2669WTNT41 KNHC 230858 2670TCDAT1 2671TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 2672NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 2673500 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 2674 2675RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY MADE LANDFALL 2676ABOUT 0600 UTC JUST SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE FLORIDA. THE LATEST 2677IMAGERY FROM THE WSR-88D IN TALLAHASSEE SHOWS A DECREASE IN 2678CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND AN INCREASE ON CONVECTION BANDING 2679AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE ARE NO 2680RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS FROM 2681EITHER LAND OR MARINE STATIONS...SO THE INTENSITY IS A LITTLE 2682UNCERTAIN. BASED MAINLY ON DOPPLER WIND VELOCITIES...THE INITIAL 2683INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER 2684WINDS OF NEAR 65 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF 2685THE CENTER...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THESE WINDS ARE NOT 2686MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. 2687 2688THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 275/6...AS THE CENTER 2689OCCASIONALLY SURGES AHEAD FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LITTLE MOVEMENT. 2690FAY REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED 2691STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN 2692AFTER 24-48 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN 2693UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS 2694FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS 2695EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER FAY WESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...THEN STEER THE 2696CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY 2697AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AFTER 48 HR THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE 2698SPREAD IN THE SPEED OF THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF 2699ARE THE FASTEST WITH THIS MOTION...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH FORECASTS 2700FAY TO MAKE A LOOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IS THE SLOWEST. 2701THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 270272 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF 2703THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE 2704LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL 2705CONSENSUS. 2706 2707FAY WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND 2708ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE 2709CONTROLLED MAINLY BY HOW MUCH LAND THE STORM ENCOUNTERS. ON THE 2710FORECAST TRACK...ENOUGH OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER WATER FOR 2711THE NEXT 72 HR TO MAINTAIN FAY AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS IS 2712REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THE STORM 2713COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT GOES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST 2714TRACK. AFTER 72 HR...FAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH INLAND AND IN ENOUGH 2715VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CAUSE IT TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW. 2716 2717REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2718DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2719AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2720 2721FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2722 2723INITIAL 23/0900Z 29.9N 84.9W 40 KT...INLAND 272412HR VT 23/1800Z 30.0N 86.0W 40 KT...OVER WATER 272524HR VT 24/0600Z 30.3N 87.5W 40 KT...INLAND 272636HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 89.1W 40 KT...INLAND 272748HR VT 25/0600Z 30.5N 90.4W 35 KT...INLAND 272872HR VT 26/0600Z 30.5N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 272996HR VT 27/0600Z 32.1N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 2730120HR VT 28/0600Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 2731 2732$$ 2733FORECASTER BEVEN 2734 2735 2736 2737 2738WTNT41 KNHC 231439 2739TCDAT1 2740TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 2741NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 27421100 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 2743 2744FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD WITH HALF OF ITS CIRCULATION 2745OVER WATER AND HALF OVER LAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT 2746THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE 2747DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE 2748BANDS WITH THE STRONGEST ONE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL 2749INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS AND BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE 2750CIRCULATION IS OVER WATER...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL 2751STORM STRENGTH FOR THE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS 2752THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER INLAND A MORE DEFINITE WEAKENING 2753SHOULD BEGIN. 2754 2755THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK AND FAY IS MOVING 2756WESTWARD OT 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. FAY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY 2757MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 2758THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY 2759IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 2760AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR REMAIN NEARLY 2761STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION 2762PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. THE 2763OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 2764 2765REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY 2766DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 2767AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. 2768 2769 2770FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2771 2772INITIAL 23/1500Z 30.1N 85.6W 40 KT 277312HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 86.8W 40 KT 277424HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 88.4W 40 KT...INLAND 277536HR VT 25/0000Z 30.6N 89.5W 40 KT...INLAND 277648HR VT 25/1200Z 30.7N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND 277772HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 30 KT...INLAND 277896HR VT 27/1200Z 32.5N 90.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 2779120HR VT 28/1200Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2780 2781$$ 2782FORECASTER AVILA 2783 2784 2785 2786 2787WTNT41 KNHC 232034 2788TCDAT1 2789TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 2790NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 2791500 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 2792 2793SURFACE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE 2794CENTER OF FAY IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE 2795INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...THE CIRCULATION IS 2796GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO 2797CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS 2798EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. 2799 2800FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS 2801MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 2802THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY 2803COULD REMAIN MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH BY 2804THEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT 2805LOW...IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS 2806PATH AND THE EMPHASIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THESE RAINS. 2807 2808 2809FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2810 2811INITIAL 23/2100Z 30.6N 86.3W 40 KT 281212HR VT 24/0600Z 30.9N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND 281324HR VT 24/1800Z 31.2N 89.7W 30 KT...INLAND 281436HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 281548HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 281672HR VT 26/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 281796HR VT 27/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 2818120HR VT 28/1800Z 34.5N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2819 2820$$ 2821FORECASTER AVILA 2822 2823 2824 2825 2826WTNT41 KNHC 240258 2827TCDAT1 2828TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 2829NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 28301100 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 2831 2832SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF 2833CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE 2834FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7. RAIN 2835BANDS HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER WATER...AND 2836ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM 2837FORCE ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING. FAY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION 2838WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...ALTHOUGH RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS 2839PERSIST EVEN OVER LAND AREAS. SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 2840LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH 2841DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAY COULD REMAIN A 2842TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. 2843 2844THE DOWNGRADE BASED ON WINDS DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THIS 2845SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND 2846FLOODING HAZARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF 2847COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS WELL INLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST 2848BY ALL MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION 2849FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO 2850ITS NORTH. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...MOST MODELS FORECAST THE 2851STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE...LEAVING FAY TO PERHAPS MEANDER OR 2852EVEN REMAIN STATIONARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...FURTHER EXACERBATING 2853THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON 2854WHAT BECOMES OF FAY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME...SUCH 2855AS THE GFS...FORECASTING A BRISK MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD 2856OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS CALLING FOR FAY 2857TO HANG AROUND THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE 2858OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE...SHOWING A VERY SLOW 2859NORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST. 2860 2861 2862FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2863 2864INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.9N 87.1W 30 KT...INLAND 286512HR VT 24/1200Z 31.3N 88.6W 30 KT...INLAND 286624HR VT 25/0000Z 31.2N 90.3W 25 KT...INLAND 286736HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 286848HR VT 26/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 286972HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 287096HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2871120HR VT 29/0000Z 35.0N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 2872 2873$$ 2874FORECASTER KNABB 2875 2876 2877 2878 2879