1// See fs2000.mod in the examples/ directory for details on the model
2
3var m P c e W R k d n l gy_obs gp_obs y dA;
4varexo e_a e_m;
5
6parameters alp bet gam mst rho psi del;
7
8alp = 0.33;
9bet = 0.99;
10gam = 0.003;
11mst = 1.011;
12rho = 0.7;
13psi = 0.787;
14del = 0.02;
15
16model;
17dA = exp(gam+e_a);
18log(m) = (1-rho)*log(mst) + rho*log(m(-1))+e_m;
19-P/(c(+1)*P(+1)*m)+bet*P(+1)*(alp*exp(-alp*(gam+log(e(+1))))*k^(alp-1)*n(+1)^(1-alp)+(1-del)*exp(-(gam+log(e(+1)))))/(c(+2)*P(+2)*m(+1))=0;
20W = l/n;
21-(psi/(1-psi))*(c*P/(1-n))+l/n = 0;
22R = P*(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(-alp)/W;
231/(c*P)-bet*P*(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)/(m*l*c(+1)*P(+1)) = 0;
24c+k = exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)+(1-del)*exp(-(gam+e_a))*k(-1);
25P*c = m;
26m-1+d = l;
27e = exp(e_a);
28y = k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a));
29gy_obs = dA*y/y(-1);
30gp_obs = (P/P(-1))*m(-1)/dA;
31end;
32
33steady_state_model;
34  dA = exp(gam);
35  gst = 1/dA;
36  m = mst;
37  khst = ( (1-gst*bet*(1-del)) / (alp*gst^alp*bet) )^(1/(alp-1));
38  xist = ( ((khst*gst)^alp - (1-gst*(1-del))*khst)/mst )^(-1);
39  nust = psi*mst^2/( (1-alp)*(1-psi)*bet*gst^alp*khst^alp );
40  n  = xist/(nust+xist);
41  P  = xist + nust;
42  k  = khst*n;
43
44  l  = psi*mst*n/( (1-psi)*(1-n) );
45  c  = mst/P;
46  d  = l - mst + 1;
47  y  = k^alp*n^(1-alp)*gst^alp;
48  R  = mst/bet;
49  W  = l/n;
50  ist  = y-c;
51  q  = 1 - d;
52
53  e = 1;
54
55  gp_obs = m/dA;
56  gy_obs = dA;
57end;
58
59shocks;
60var e_a; stderr 0.014;
61var e_m; stderr 0.005;
62end;
63
64steady;
65
66check;
67
68stoch_simul(irf=0);
69
70conditional_forecast_paths;
71var gy_obs;
72periods  1  2  3:5;
73values   0.01 -0.02 0;
74var gp_obs;
75periods 1:5;
76values  0.05;
77end;
78
79conditional_forecast(parameter_set=calibration, controlled_varexo=(e_a,e_m));
80
81plot_conditional_forecast(periods=10) gy_obs gp_obs;
82
83