1WTNT41 KNHC 281847 2TCDAT1 3TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 5215 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 6 7THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE 8INITIAL AND FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY FOR TROPICAL STORM 9NOEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT BASED ON 1000-FT 10FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...AND SFMR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 45 11AND 50 KT. INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY 12UPWARD. THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 45 N MI 13NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK 14FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO 15ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION. 16 17PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS 18NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE 19THE WORD KNOLL. 20 21 22FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 23 24INITIAL 28/1815Z 16.9N 72.1W 45 KT 25 12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.6N 72.7W 50 KT 26 24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.7N 74.2W 55 KT 27 36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.9N 75.5W 60 KT 28 48HR VT 30/1200Z 21.1N 76.6W 50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 29 72HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 77.5W 55 KT 30 96HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 77.5W 55 KT 31120HR VT 02/1200Z 25.5N 75.5W 50 KT 32 33$$ 34FORECASTER KNABB 35 36 37WTNT41 KNHC 282059 38TCDAT1 39TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 40NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 41500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 42 43EARLIER TODAY THE CIRCULATION CENTER REFORMED CLOSER TO THE DEEP 44CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED...AS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM 45AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE POSITION FIXES FROM THE 46AIRCRAFT HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS 47ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/4. THE 48ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT BASED ON SFMR AND 49FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED 50TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 51HISPANIOLA...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND 52SOUTH WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS MOSTLY CONVECTION-FREE. 53 54FOLLOWING THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE 55HAS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HWRF AND GFDL WHICH STILL 56PROVIDE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A 57NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 58OF DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS 59AND SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO 60THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS THE MODELS 61DIVERGE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 62JOG NEAR OR OVER CUBA...WHILE GFDL AND HWRF HEAD NORTHWARD. THE 63NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS NUDGED TO 64THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS/SPECIAL ADVISORY. 65 66EVEN THOUGH NOEL HAS NOTABLY STRENGTHENED TODAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR 67HOW MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. THE AMOUNT OF 68INTERACTION WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS IS STILL RATHER 69UNCERTAIN...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES 70STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOSTLY OVER WATER IF THE 71OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION 72THAT NOEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO PASSING OVER CUBA. 73THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED 74BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. 75 76PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS 77NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE 78THE WORD KNOLL. 79 80FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 81 82INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.8N 71.9W 50 KT 83 12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 72.8W 55 KT 84 24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 74.0W 60 KT 85 36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.2N 75.0W 60 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 86 48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.4N 75.8W 45 KT...OVER WATER 87 72HR VT 31/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 50 KT 88 96HR VT 01/1800Z 26.0N 75.0W 50 KT 89120HR VT 02/1800Z 29.0N 73.5W 50 KT 90 91$$ 92FORECASTER KNABB 93 94 95WTNT41 KNHC 290242 96TCDAT1 97TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 98NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 991100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 100 101NOEL HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS 102ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN 103CLUSTERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. SOME OF 104THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPREADING OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS LIKELY 105GENERATING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND. DVORAK 106INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT BASED ON THE 107EARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 108KT. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE NOEL 109AROUND 0600 UTC TO GIVE A NEW ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND POSITION 110OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 111 112IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIX THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BASED 113SOLELY ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. UTILIZING POSITION 114ESTIMATES FROM EARLIER SSM/I AND AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE 115INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 330/4. NOEL IS APPARENTLY 116EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL 117CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE A 118LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST 119TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE 120NORTHWEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE NOEL TO 121GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD IN A FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE 122BASICALLY CLUSTERING INTO TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND THE 123ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAKER CYCLONE MOVING ON A GENERALLY 124WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS 125QUESTIONABLE SINCE IT SPLITS NOEL INTO TWO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC 126VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND DEVELOPS A THIRD CENTER 127FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK 128FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFDN...HWRF...U.K. 129MET AND NOGAPS TRACKS. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS NHC 130TRACK. 131 132THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN IMPARTING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING 133ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH IS INHIBITING AN INCREASE IN 134ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS 135LOW WILL SOON FILL...CREATING AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT MORE 136CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS HOW MUCH THE 137INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA 138WILL DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. BY DAYS 3-5...INCREASING 139WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND 140BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL 141CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. 142 143FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 144 145INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.1N 72.1W 50 KT 146 12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 73.2W 50 KT...INLAND OVER HAITI 147 24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.7N 74.5W 60 KT...OVER WATER 148 36HR VT 30/1200Z 21.0N 75.7W 55 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 149 48HR VT 31/0000Z 22.4N 76.1W 55 KT...OVER WATER 150 72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 55 KT 151 96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.0N 74.5W 50 KT 152120HR VT 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 153 154$$ 155FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS 156 157WTNT41 KNHC 290858 158TCDAT1 159TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 160NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 161500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 162 163THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A WELL-DEFINED 164CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT 850 MB...BUT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT 165THE CENTER LIKELY REFORMED AGAIN TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP 166CONVECTION AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF HAITI. THE DROPSONDE 167DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE THIS 168AFTERNOON...AND IS NOW LIKELY AROUND 1002 MB. THERE WAS AN SFMR 169REPORT OF 42 KT...ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND ON THIS 170BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT. 171 172THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF NOEL 173IS INFLUENCING THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN 174FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER 175THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE 176SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE 177TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE RIDGE IS 178THEN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH 179THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 180TURN NOEL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 181THE ECMWF AND UKMET...WHICH RUN A WEAK LOW ALONG OR SOUTH OF 182CUBA...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT 183ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF 184THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AS A RESULT OF THE 185NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. 186 187IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL...WHICH IS NOT WELL-DEFINED 188TO BEGIN WITH...WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI FOR 189THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ASSUMING IT SURVIVES THE PASSAGE...THE 190NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD DIMINISH AND ALL 191GUIDANCE INDICATES RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE 192TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE GFDL AND 193HWRF. BY DAYS 4-5...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE 194INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM 195SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH 196A FRONTAL ZONE. 197 198 199 200FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 201 202INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.0N 72.3W 45 KT 203 12HR VT 29/1800Z 19.4N 72.9W 30 KT 204 24HR VT 30/0600Z 21.1N 74.0W 40 KT 205 36HR VT 30/1800Z 22.2N 75.0W 50 KT 206 48HR VT 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.8W 55 KT 207 72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 76.0W 55 KT 208 96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 74.0W 50 KT 209120HR VT 03/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 210 211$$ 212FORECASTER FRANKLIN 213 214 215WTNT41 KNHC 291456 216TCDAT1 217TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 218NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 2191100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 220 221NOEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX 222TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMERGED NORTH 223OF THE ISLAND A FEW HOURS AGO...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A 224LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF 225HAITI. UNTIL THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES 226THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCATION...FORWARD MOTION...AND EVEN 227THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN. 228 229OUR BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 230335/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH 231AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS 232FORECAST A SURFACE LOW TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE OVER THE 233BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE 234VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON 235NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE THAT WILL ACCELERATE QUICKLY NORTHWARD 236AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE ECMWF THAT DEPICTS 237A WEAK SURFACE LOW HANGING OUT NEAR CUBA FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. 238THE REMAINING MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AND FORECAST A GENERAL 239NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 240NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME OF THOSE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...FORECAST 241LITTLE MOTION ON DAYS 3-5...WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD 242ACCELERATION IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST 243SHOWS A WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT SLOWLY 244RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AFTER 48 HOURS...IN 245RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...SIMILAR TO THE HWRF 246SOLUTION AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 247 248ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REGAINS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION AFTER BEING 249DISRUPTED OVER HISPANIOLA...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS SHOULD 250PROVIDE NOEL WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE 251NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD 252DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW 253OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD COMPARED 254TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THIS 255FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE...AND 256BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL. 257 258FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 259 260INITIAL 29/1500Z 19.9N 73.0W 40 KT 261 12HR VT 30/0000Z 21.2N 73.7W 40 KT 262 24HR VT 30/1200Z 22.4N 74.4W 45 KT 263 36HR VT 31/0000Z 23.4N 75.4W 50 KT 264 48HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 76.7W 50 KT 265 72HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 76.5W 45 KT 266 96HR VT 02/1200Z 28.0N 75.0W 40 KT 267120HR VT 03/1200Z 30.0N 72.5W 35 KT 268 269$$ 270FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI 271 272 273WTNT41 KNHC 292059 274TCDAT1 275TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 276NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 277500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 278 279THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI 280EARLIER TODAY...HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 281325/13...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE 282CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO CLOSE TO LAND FOR THE AIR FORCE 283RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO FLY DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER...BUT 284FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT 285WITH A POSITION ESTIMATED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM 286FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 37 KT AT THE 287SURFACE...WHILE SFMR ESTIMATES PEAKED A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 50 KT. 288THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN 289THESE ESTIMATES. THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE 290STORM HAS A VERY SPRAWLING APPEARANCE...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS 291EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY 292RAINS TO HISPANIOLA. 293 294THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE 295GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. DURING THE FIRST 48 296HOURS...THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO 297BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS...WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES THE 298WESTERNMOST TRACK. DURING THIS PERIOD NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE 299GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL 300RIDGE. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND 301EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE 302SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW SOON THIS TURN 303WILL MATERIALIZE AND HOW FAST NOEL WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...PERHAPS 304DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM. 305THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE 306GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 307 308THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ARE 309ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MODEST 310STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL 311WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER 312AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. 313THIS FORECAST IS AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF. 314 315 316FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 317 318INITIAL 29/2100Z 20.9N 74.2W 45 KT 319 12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W 45 KT 320 24HR VT 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W 50 KT 321 36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W 50 KT 322 48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W 50 KT 323 72HR VT 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT 324 96HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 325120HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 326 327$$ 328FORECASTER KNABB 329 330 331WTNT41 KNHC 300306 332TCDAT1 333TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 334NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 3351100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 336 337SO FAR...NOEL HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON 338SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A BROAD AND SPRAWLING 339APPEARANCE. SOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING 340NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY 341OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA ALSO 342INDICATED THAT THE STORM WAS NOT YET VERY WELL ORGANIZED. 343CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN 344SEMICIRCLE BUT LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL 345CYCLONE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 346DVORAK ESTIMATES. 347 348THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGES BUT A 1002 MB SHIP 349OR BUOY OBSERVATION NEAR 0000 UTC WAS LIKELY NOT FAR FROM THE 350CENTER. THE HOLGUIN RADAR WAS ALSO USEFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER 351OF CIRCULATION. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/11. THE 352TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY 353OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE 354TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL 355NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW 356AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL 357TRACK PREDICTION MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF... 358GFDN...AND NOGAPS...HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE 359AROUND THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FLORIDA COAST. 360ACCORDINGLY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO 361THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME... 362ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 363 364THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY 365STILL HAVING A SLIGHT INHIBITING EFFECT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF 366NOEL. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW IS IN THE 367PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. THEREFORE SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS 368LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...WESTERLY 369VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG AND THIS 370SHOULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION. BY DAY 4 OR SOONER NOEL WILL BE 371EMBEDDED IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD BE 372TRANSFORMED INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 373 374AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE MIAMI WFO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS 375NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGH WIND 376WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM 377BEACH COUNTIES DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE 378GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH 379BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE APPROACH OF NOEL. 380HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR 381SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY....DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST TRACK 382AND WIND RADII OF THE TROPICAL STORM. 383 384FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 385 386INITIAL 30/0300Z 21.2N 75.0W 45 KT 387 12HR VT 30/1200Z 22.2N 76.3W 50 KT 388 24HR VT 31/0000Z 23.3N 77.6W 55 KT 389 36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.4N 78.4W 55 KT 390 48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 78.5W 50 KT 391 72HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 75.5W 45 KT 392 96HR VT 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 393120HR VT 04/0000Z 38.0N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 394 395$$ 396FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS 397 398 399WTNT41 KNHC 300842 400TCDAT1 401TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 402NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 403500 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 404 405SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT 406CENTER OF NOEL HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE CUBAN 407WEATHER STATION 78365...PUNTA LUCRECIA... REPORTED A WIND SHIFT AND 408A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1000 MB AS THE CENTER MOVED NEARBY. THE 409RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE TO 410THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE 411BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE U.S AIR 412FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 52 413KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL 414INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 50 KNOTS. NOEL HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN 415A LITTLE BIT MORE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA AND BEFORE THE SHEAR 416INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS 417WHICH IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. 418 419CUBAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 420DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 421SHORT-LIVED AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER 422TODAY AND THEN NORTHWARD...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE 423EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD 424RECURVE OR MOVE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AWAY FROM 425THE UNITED STATES. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEYOND 3 426DAYS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL TRACK 427GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS NOEL SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 428AWAY FROM FLORIDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO 429BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL 430STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY 431IF NOEL MOVES FATHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE WINDS 432EXPAND. 433 434THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ARE 435ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE 436NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS 437FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. 438 439 440FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 441 442INITIAL 30/0900Z 21.3N 76.0W 50 KT 443 12HR VT 30/1800Z 22.2N 77.4W 55 KT 444 24HR VT 31/0600Z 23.3N 78.2W 60 KT 445 36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.5N 78.5W 65 KT 446 48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W 60 KT 447 72HR VT 02/0600Z 31.0N 72.4W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 448 96HR VT 03/0600Z 37.0N 66.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 449120HR VT 04/0600Z 45.0N 58.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 450 451$$ 452FORECASTER AVILA 453 454 455WTNT41 KNHC 301500 456TCDAT1 457TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 458NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 4591100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 460 461VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND 462SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL 463REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA. PLENTY OF RAIN BANDS... 464HOWEVER...STILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN 465SEMICIRCLE...CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAINS FOR HISPANIOLA THAT HAVE 466ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM 467WINDS IS 40 KT...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OCCURRING IN THE BANDS 468BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE NEXT AIR FORCE 469RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT SCHEDULED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SINCE 470THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL LIKELY SPEND THE DAY OVER LAND...AS THE 471AIRCRAFT DO NOT TYPICALLY MAKE CENTER FIXES OVER LAND. 472 473THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 270 474DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. 475AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A 476SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED 477STATES...NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND 478EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE IS 479NOT AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS 480DOES NOT BRING NOEL BACK OVER WATER UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...AND 481NEITHER WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFICIAL 482TRACK IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS 483SLOWER DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS. 484 485THE FORECAST OF AN EXTENDED STAY OVER CUBA REQUIRES A LOWER 486INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A 487LITTLE MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER LAND. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER 488WATER AGAIN...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE 489BAHAMAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 490SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL TAKE TIME TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. THE 491CHANCES OF NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR LESS NOW...AND MOST OF 492THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST THIS TO OCCUR. NOTABLE 493STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER...ONCE NOEL BECOMES 494EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. 495 496THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE 497ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE 498NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS 499FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. 500 501 502FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 503 504INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.1N 77.4W 40 KT...INLAND 505 12HR VT 31/0000Z 21.4N 78.3W 35 KT...INLAND 506 24HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 78.7W 40 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA 507 36HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W 50 KT...OVER WATER 508 48HR VT 01/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W 50 KT 509 72HR VT 02/1200Z 32.5N 71.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 510 96HR VT 03/1200Z 39.0N 64.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 511120HR VT 04/1200Z 46.5N 58.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 512 513$$ 514FORECASTER KNABB 515 516 517WTNT41 KNHC 302058 518TCDAT1 519TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 520NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 521500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 522 523THE CENTER OF NOEL IS STILL CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE 524IMAGERY...HAVING SPENT THE DAY MOVING ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD... 525ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KNOTS. 526SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION 527DERIVED FROM THE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS 528SUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE A BIT SOUTH OF OUR ADVISORY POSITION. 529THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 35 KT...BASED IN PART ON A 530SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION OF 35 KT FROM A DROPSONDE...WELL TO THE 531NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...LAUNCHED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET 532THAT HAS BEGUN ITS SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION. 533 534DESPITE THE CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION TODAY...NOEL IS STILL EXPECTED 535TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS 536THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE 537OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THE VARIOUS 538DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR 539NOEL TO GAIN ANY LATITUDE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO 540THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS ALONG THE SAME PATH BUT JUST A 541LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FROM 48 HOURS ON...THE 542NEW TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED IN TAKING NOEL QUICKLY 543NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 544 545LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMERGES 546BACK OVER WATER NORTH OF CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 547FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IN 548CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHILE NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 549A TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 72 550HOURS...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE 551GLOBAL MODELS. SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT THAT NOEL ITSELF WILL 552NOT LAST BEYOND ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND INSTEAD CALL FOR NOEL TO BE 553ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 554FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME THAT 555NOEL WILL REMAIN INTACT AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL 556CYCLONE. 557 558THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE 559ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE 560NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS 561FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES. 562 563 564FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 565 566INITIAL 30/2100Z 21.0N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 567 12HR VT 31/0600Z 21.6N 78.8W 35 KT...NEAR S COAST OF CUBA 568 24HR VT 31/1800Z 22.6N 79.2W 35 KT...NEAR N COAST OF CUBA 569 36HR VT 01/0600Z 24.1N 78.8W 40 KT...OVER WATER 570 48HR VT 01/1800Z 26.8N 77.2W 45 KT 571 72HR VT 02/1800Z 34.0N 70.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 572 96HR VT 03/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 573120HR VT 04/1800Z 48.5N 56.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 574 575$$ 576FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA 577 578 579WTNT41 KNHC 310238 580TCDAT1 581TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 582NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 5831100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 584 585SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND THE CAMAGUEY RADAR INDICATE THE 586THE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY. INFRARED IMAGERY 587AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THAT INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOT 588FAR EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS 589REMAINED OVER LAND IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AND 590THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. 591 592CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA 593SUGGEST THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW 594HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED. INITIAL 595MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/4. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN 596MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS 597BASICALLY UNCHANGED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 598OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE 599TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS STEERING FLOW EVOLUTION 600SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN 601TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS NOEL GETS 602CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS 603DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK 604FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU. 605 606ONCE THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...THERE WILL BE A 607SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. 608HOWEVER...IN 36-48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS 609MODEL TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 OR 40 KT. THIS SHOULD TERMINATE ANY 610FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST AS A TROPICAL 611CYCLONE. IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS TRANSFORM NOEL INTO A 612VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE 613OFFICIAL FORECAST. 614 615THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE 616ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH OVER 617THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH 618THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. SEE STATEMENTS FROM NWS 619LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES. 620 621FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 622 623INITIAL 31/0300Z 21.4N 78.1W 35 KT 624 12HR VT 31/1200Z 22.1N 78.8W 35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 625 24HR VT 01/0000Z 23.3N 78.8W 40 KT...OVER WATER 626 36HR VT 01/1200Z 25.1N 78.0W 45 KT 627 48HR VT 02/0000Z 27.6N 76.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 628 72HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 69.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 629 96HR VT 04/0000Z 42.0N 62.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 630120HR VT 05/0000Z 51.0N 55.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 631 632$$ 633FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE 634 635 636WTNT41 KNHC 310847 637TCDAT1 638TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 639NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 640500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 641 642SURFACE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL IS 643APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO COCO. RADAR AND 644SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS 645NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION 646NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE OBSERVATION AT CAYO COCO 647SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB...AND AN EARLIER 648ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KT. 649 650NOEL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12 HR 651MOTION IS 330/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY EVEN BE MORE TOWARD 652THE NORTH. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS AN EARLY START OF THE 653FORECAST NORTHWARD TURN...OR IF IT IS A RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER. 654THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR NOEL BASED ON 655INTERACTIONS WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS 656THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN 657UNITED STATES. THE FIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS...THE GFDL... 658AND THE HWRF...IS FOR NOEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND 659BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. 660THE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO 661FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WHICH ABSORBS NOEL. THE THIRD... 662SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO FORM OFF 663THE FLORIDA COAST WITH IT AND NOEL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM. 664THE FOURTH...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW 665TO FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAKENING NOEL BEING DRIVEN 666SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE 667OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH NOEL 668RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AND THEN 669ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD OVERALL 670AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. 671 672ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE NOEL IS 673EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MUCH OF IT 674DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. AS NOEL MOVES OFF CUBA... 675THERE WILL BE A 24 HR OR SO PERIOD OF DECREASED SHEAR THAT COULD 676ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT...INTENSIFICATION AS A 677TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STOP AS NOEL ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND 678BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO 679STRENGTHEN FURTHER AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...WITH A PEAK 680INTENSITY OF 60 KT. 681 682THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA 683ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH 684OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED 685WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. SEE STATEMENTS FROM 686NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES. 687 688 689FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 690 691INITIAL 31/0900Z 22.1N 78.2W 35 KT...INLAND 692 12HR VT 31/1800Z 22.9N 78.7W 40 KT...OVER WATER 693 24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.9N 78.7W 45 KT 694 36HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 77.8W 45 KT 695 48HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 75.7W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 696 72HR VT 03/0600Z 35.0N 69.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 697 96HR VT 04/0600Z 44.0N 61.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 698120HR VT 05/0600Z 54.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 699 700$$ 701FORECASTER BEVEN 702 703 704WTNT41 KNHC 311505 705TCDAT1 706TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 707NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 7081100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 709 710AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED 711AFTER MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL 712WINDS WERE 53 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HASN'T BEEN 713SAMPLED YET...AND SFMR DATA HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 45 KT. THE 714ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE CENTER IS DISPLACED 715ABOUT 30-40 NM FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE ORGANIZATION HAS 716IMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 717EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 36-48 718HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR 719BEFORE THE SYSTEM RESTRENGTHENS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 720 721THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/7. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 722TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR NOEL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN 723NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING 724THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN 725GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT SURFACE CIRCULATION 726OF NOEL...THEY ALL TAKE EITHER NOEL OR A NEW EXTRATROPICAL 727DEVELOPMENT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE BETTER ASSOCIATION OF 728NOEL'S CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS 729MORNING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WITH THE 730PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND PRESUMES THAT NOEL WILL BE THE PRIMARY 731CIRCULATION. THE TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL 732TRACKS FOR NOEL AND THE GFS TRACK FOR THE NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW. 733 734THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA 735ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH 736OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED 737WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS DISTINCTION MAY 738BECOME LESS CLEAR AS NOEL APPROACHES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO 739TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE 740WARNING IS CALLED...WINDS NEAR THE LOW-END TROPICAL STORM/GALE 741THRESHHOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST 742FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL 743NWS FORECAST OFFICES. 744 745FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 746 747INITIAL 31/1500Z 22.7N 78.5W 45 KT 748 12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.9N 78.6W 55 KT 749 24HR VT 01/1200Z 25.1N 78.2W 55 KT 750 36HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 76.7W 50 KT 751 48HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 73.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 752 72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 67.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 753 96HR VT 04/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 754120HR VT 05/1200Z 55.0N 51.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 755 756$$ 757FORECASTER FRANKLIN 758 759 760WTNT41 KNHC 312038 761TCDAT1 762TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 763NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 764500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 765 766THE CENTER OF NOEL DRIFTED WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 767MIDDAY...BUT RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR PERHAPS 768MAKING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF 769CUBA. THE CENTER IS NOT AS WELL CONNECTED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS 770IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT 771THE TWO WILL NOT COMPLETELY SEPARATE. INDEED...THERE WAS SOME 772EVIDENCE IN THE RECON DATA AROUND 18Z THAT A SECOND VORTICITY 773CENTER WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF 774THE SURFACE CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH 775IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE CYCLONE...AND THIS IS 776EXPECTED TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION 777OF NOEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A GFDL/HWRF/GFS 778BLEND...EXCEPT FOR BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE 779PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. 780 781THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR 782DATA. THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 783HOURS...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND EXTRATROPICAL 784TRANSITION BEGINS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE 785NOEL WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 786 787WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE 788DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. 789RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD OF NOEL HAS 790EXPANDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW 791BRINGS TROPICAL STORM WINDS TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. 792SINCE ANY SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WINDS AT THE COAST WOULD BE 793ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS 794BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WHILE A WATCH IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH 795A LONGER LEAD TIME THAN A WARNING...IT ALSO CONVEYS THE 796POSSIBILITY...AS OPPOSED TO THE EXPECTATION...OF TROPICAL STORM 797CONDITIONS. BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE 798FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A WATCH IS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A 799WARNING. THE NEED FOR A WARNING WILL BE REASSESSED THIS EVENING. 800 801 802FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 803 804INITIAL 31/2100Z 22.6N 78.8W 45 KT 805 12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 79.0W 50 KT 806 24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.3N 78.1W 55 KT 807 36HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 76.0W 50 KT 808 48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.5N 72.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 809 72HR VT 03/1800Z 39.0N 66.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 810 96HR VT 04/1800Z 49.0N 57.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 811120HR VT 05/1800Z 60.0N 47.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 812 813$$ 814FORECASTER FRANKLIN 815 816 817WTNT41 KNHC 010238 818TCDAT1 819TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 820NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 8211100 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 822 823SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL HAS 824DRAMATICALLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL 825CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LARGE AREA OF 826THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER 827ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL 828CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT NOEL HAS NOT 829STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KT...BASED 830ON EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY OCCURRING 831TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL NOT VERY 832DISRUPTED BY THE INCOMING SHEAR AND GIVEN THE INCREASE IN 833CONVECTION...NOEL STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE 834NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 835A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING 836MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE. 837 838AFTER A LONG TIME OVER CUBA OR NEARBY...NOEL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY 839SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. NOEL IS 840EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS 841BUT THE PREVAILING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE 842AND SOON...NOEL WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING 843SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN 844WILL FORCE NOEL TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN 845FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL BE AFFECTING THE 846NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 847 848SINCE NOEL IS ALREADY MOVING NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TURN 849NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 850ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ...THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM 851WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY UNEXPECTED INCREASE 852IN THE WIND RADII WEST OF THE CYCLONE OR A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF 853THE FORECAST TRACK COULD PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM 854WARNING. 855 856BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT... 857ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING 858NOEL A LITTLE...TURNING IT NORTHEASTWARD...AND MAKING IT 859EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 DAYS. 860 861 862FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 863 864INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.2N 78.5W 50 KT 865 12HR VT 01/1200Z 24.3N 78.3W 60 KT 866 24HR VT 02/0000Z 26.5N 77.0W 60 KT 867 36HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.0W 55 KT 868 48HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 70.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 869 72HR VT 04/0000Z 42.0N 63.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 870 96HR VT 05/0000Z 50.0N 53.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 871120HR VT 06/0000Z 55.0N 42.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 872 873$$ 874FORECASTER AVILA 875 876 877WTNT41 KNHC 010901 878TCDAT1 879TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 880NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 881500 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007 882 883NOEL PRODUCED A MAJOR BURST OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER 884THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -90C AT TIMES. 885HOWEVER...THE BURST HAS ENDED...WITH RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI... 886NASSAU...AND CAMAGUEY CURRENTLY SHOWING LITTLE PRECIPITATION NEAR 887THE CENTER. MAJOR COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE DISRUPTED THE FLOW 888OF DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 889MONITORING NOEL. HOWEVER...THE PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL 890PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 992 MB AT 05Z. BASED ON THAT AND SATELLITE 891INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. 892 893THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 000/5. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 894AND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS 895MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE LOW/MID-LEVEL 896RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVING EASTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL 897MODELS NOW AGREE THAT NOEL WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH... 898MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO AND THEN ACCELERATING 899NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS 900TRACK THROUGH 36 HR...AND THEN IS SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE 901PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE 902MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MOTION DURING THE 903FIRST 12 HR COULD BE ERRATIC DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER 904CAUSED BY CONVECTIVE BURSTS. 905 906NOEL HAS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY IN THE 907NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...RAWINSONDE DATA FROM KEY WEST 908AND MIAMI SHOW THAT THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO ABOVE 200 MB...WITH 90920-30 KT OF WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 200-400 MB UNDERCUTTING THE 910OUTFLOW AND CAUSING SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY 24 911HR...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR NOEL TO INTENSIFY AS A 912TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NOEL TO 913STRENGTHEN TO 60 KT IN 12 HR IN ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE 914BURST SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST FINISHED. AFTER THAT... 915INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD STOP DEVELOPMENT. ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS 916FORECAST NOEL TO BECOME A LARGE AND INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER 917THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARING IN 36-48 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN 918BOTH THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS. 919 920THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A BAND OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ABOUT 921100-115 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT....WITH 922THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED BY DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE MIAMI WSR-88D 923AND A 37 KT SHIP REPORT AT 06Z. THESE WINDS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO 924THE FLORIDA COAST THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST 925TRACK WOULD BRING THEM ON TO THE FLORIDA COAST. THUS...A TROPICAL 926STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR THE IMMEDIATE 927COASTAL AREA OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. 928 929 930FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 931 932INITIAL 01/0900Z 23.7N 78.5W 50 KT 933 12HR VT 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.1W 60 KT 934 24HR VT 02/0600Z 27.2N 76.2W 60 KT 935 36HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 73.4W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 936 48HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 70.1W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 937 72HR VT 04/0600Z 43.5N 63.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 938 96HR VT 05/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 939120HR VT 06/0600Z 57.5N 42.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 940 941$$ 942FORECASTER BEVEN 943 944 945WTNT41 KNHC 011500 946TCDAT1 947TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 948NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 9491100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007 950 951DATA PHONED IN FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 952INVESTIGATING NOEL INCLUDE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND 953SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 51 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT 954INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT. THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING 955ABOUT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BUT OVERALL INDICATE THAT 956THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION 957ESTIMATE IS 020/8. 958 959THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MID- 960TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVANCING TOWARD NOEL FROM THE 961GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NOEL 962NORTHNORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 963HEADING BUT LESS SO ON THE SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS 964A GFS/GFDL/HWRF BLEND. 965 966WITH THE RECENT JUMP OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...THERE 967IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-18 968HOURS...BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE. HOWEVER... 969BAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT 970STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. 971 972AS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EDGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS 973AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD SOON BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM 974WARNING. 975 976 977FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 978 979INITIAL 01/1500Z 24.5N 77.8W 50 KT 980 12HR VT 02/0000Z 25.8N 76.9W 60 KT 981 24HR VT 02/1200Z 28.4N 74.9W 55 KT 982 36HR VT 03/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 983 48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 69.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 984 72HR VT 04/1200Z 46.0N 61.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 985 96HR VT 05/1200Z 56.5N 50.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 986120HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 987 988$$ 989FORECASTER FRANKLIN 990 991 992WTNT41 KNHC 012035 993TCDAT1 994TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 995NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 996500 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007 997 998THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NOEL REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT 999LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB OF 66 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND PEAK 1000SFMR WINDS OF 53 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 1001INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL 1002CENTER WAS BECOMING DISTORTED AND ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. 1003WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 1004FLORIDA STRAITS AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH NOEL...SIGNALING THE 1005START OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WITHIN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR 1006SO...THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL 1007CYCLONE...SO THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NOEL 1008TO BECOME A CANE. HOWEVER...AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...GLOBAL 1009MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOEL WILL BECOME AN EXTREMELY LARGE 1010AND POWERFUL CYCLONE. 1011 1012NOEL IS ACCELERATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE 1013APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. A SECOND 1014MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CYCLONE AND CUT OFF 1015OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST PATTERN 1016RESULTS IN A TRACK FOR NOEL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST 1017COAST...AND WITH THE FORECAST EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII...IS 1018EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL WIND EVENT FROM 1019THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS 1020FROM YOUR NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN 1021ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE 1022RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY 1023BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING. 1024 1025 1026FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1027 1028INITIAL 01/2100Z 25.5N 77.1W 55 KT 1029 12HR VT 02/0600Z 27.6N 75.8W 60 KT 1030 24HR VT 02/1800Z 30.7N 73.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1031 36HR VT 03/0600Z 34.5N 71.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1032 48HR VT 03/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1033 72HR VT 04/1800Z 50.5N 60.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1034 96HR VT 05/1800Z 60.0N 52.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1035120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED 1036 1037$$ 1038FORECASTER FRANKLIN 1039 1040 1041WTNT41 KNHC 020240 1042TCDAT1 1043HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 1044NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 10451100 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007 1046 1047SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE AND ROUND VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE 1048MASS WITH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. AN AIR FORCE 1049RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENTERED THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL AND MEASURED A 1050MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM 1051EARLIER FLIGHTS. WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL HAVE INCREASED TO THE NORTH 1052OF THE CENTER AND PEAKED AT 81 KNOTS...AND THE MAXIMUM MEASURED SFMR 1053SURFACE WINDS WERE 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED 1054UPWARD TO 70 KNOTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE 1055INCREASE IN THE WINDS...AND A 0022 UTC SSM/IS PASS DEPICTED AN EYE 1056FEATURE. NOEL COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 12 1057HOURS OR SO BUT THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME 1058EXTRATROPICAL AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE 1059CIRCULATION AND A COOLER OCEAN. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS VERY 1060DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL 1061TRANSITION. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE 1062TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED 1063SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS MAY OCCUR A 1064LITTLE BIT LATER. NEVERTHELESS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE 1065AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 1066 1067NOEL IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG AND ACCELERATING 1068SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE 1069CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 17 1070KNOTS. FROM THIS POINT ON...THE CYCLONE CAN ONLY ACCELERATE AND 1071CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED 1072BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT A 1073POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN A 1074COUPLE OF DAYS. DETAILS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 1075IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PRIMARILY NOVA SCOTIA ARE INCLUDED IN 1076PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT 1077CANADA. 1078 1079NOTE: LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SUGGEST THAT THE 1080CIRCULATION AND WINDS ARE EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 1081 1082 1083FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1084 1085INITIAL 02/0300Z 27.3N 76.1W 70 KT 1086 12HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.7W 75 KT 1087 24HR VT 03/0000Z 33.0N 72.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1088 36HR VT 03/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1089 48HR VT 04/0000Z 42.5N 66.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1090 72HR VT 05/0000Z 53.0N 58.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1091 96HR VT 06/0000Z 62.5N 50.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1092120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED 1093 1094$$ 1095FORECASTER AVILA 1096 1097 1098WTNT41 KNHC 020850 1099TCDAT1 1100HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 1101NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1102500 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007 1103 1104AT ABOUT 05Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 1105REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KT JUST WEST OF THE CENTER BY 1106DROPSONDE AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE 1107AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...AND 700 MB 1108FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 89 KT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE 1109INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT BASED ON THIS DATA. 1110 1111THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/16. NOEL IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A STRONG 1112SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER 1113TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE 1114FORECASTS THIS PATTERN TO CAUSE THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE WITH 1115SOME ACCELERATION...BRINGING NOEL NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 111648 HR. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THEREAFTER 1117UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES AT VERY HIGH LATITUDES. 1118 1119NOEL IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 112026C...AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM. THIS SUGGESTS 1121THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT STRENGTHEN ANY MORE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 1122NOEL SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AND 1123COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HR. IT IS FORECAST TO 1124MAINTAIN HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS DURING THE TRANSITION...AND THE 1125INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 24-48 HR IN 1126AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS 1127FORECAST NOEL TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR...AND 1128THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 1129 1130SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047...QUIKSCAT DATA...AND 1131AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER 1132IN SIZE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT REVISION TO 1133BOTH THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII. 1134 1135FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1136 1137INITIAL 02/0900Z 28.4N 75.2W 70 KT 1138 12HR VT 02/1800Z 31.2N 73.6W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 1139 24HR VT 03/0600Z 35.4N 71.2W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1140 36HR VT 03/1800Z 40.0N 68.7W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1141 48HR VT 04/0600Z 44.9N 65.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 1142 72HR VT 05/0600Z 56.0N 56.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1143 96HR VT 06/0600Z 64.5N 50.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 1144120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED 1145 1146$$ 1147FORECASTER BEVEN 1148 1149 1150WTNT41 KNHC 021450 1151TCDAT1 1152HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 1153NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 11541100 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007 1155 1156THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT...BASED ON AN SFMR REPORT OF 69 1157KT ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF 1158NOEL IS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY...HOWEVER...WITH DEEP CONVECTION 1159EVAPORATING OVER THE CENTER. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 12Z STILL 1160SHOWED A DISTINCT WARM CORE AT 700 MB...AND CO-LOCATED SURFACE AND 1161700 MB CENTERS...SO NOEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. IF 1162THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY AT ITS PRESENT RATE...NOEL 1163WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS 1164EVENING. WHILE NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AS THE CORE DECAYS 1165OVER 26C WATERS...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME 1166STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 1167 1168THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE 1169PREVIOUS MOTION. NOEL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTH- 1170SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER 1171TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS TROUGH DIGS IN 1172BEHIND NOEL...A RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING 1173IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE 1174OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 1175 1176SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 WERE USED TO EXPAND THE 50 1177KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. 1178 1179 1180FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1181 1182INITIAL 02/1500Z 29.2N 73.8W 70 KT 1183 12HR VT 03/0000Z 32.5N 71.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1184 24HR VT 03/1200Z 37.1N 69.7W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1185 36HR VT 04/0000Z 41.8N 66.9W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1186 48HR VT 04/1200Z 47.5N 62.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1187 72HR VT 05/1200Z 58.0N 54.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1188 96HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 47.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1189120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED 1190 1191$$ 1192FORECASTER FRANKLIN 1193 1194 1195WTNT41 KNHC 022052 1196TCDAT1 1197HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 1198NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1199500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007 1200 1201NOEL IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS 1202AFTERNOON. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AROUND 17Z SHOWED PEAK 1203FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...THOUGH SFMR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT 1204THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 70 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO 1205INDICATED THAT NOEL STILL DISPLAYED A WARM CORE AND A FAIRLY TIGHT 1206RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SINCE THEN...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION 1207HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY 1208NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE 1209SPACE DIAGRAM SUGGESTS THAT NOEL'S THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS 1210BEGINNING TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRONTAL. THUS THIS WILL BE THE 1211LAST NOEL ADVISORY. 1212 1213CURRENT MOTION IS 040/17. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE 1214SMALL SPREAD...THOUGH THE 12Z SUITE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE 1215WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS 1216ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE LATTER. 1217 1218BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY NOEL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL 1219CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE 1220GLOBAL MODELS BOTH DEEPEN THE CYCLONE AND EXPAND THE HIGH WIND 1221AREAS. THE INTENSITY AND SIZE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON THE 1222CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. 1223 1224FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1225 1226INITIAL 02/2100Z 31.4N 72.4W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 1227 12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.5N 71.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1228 24HR VT 03/1800Z 39.4N 69.3W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1229 36HR VT 04/0600Z 44.7N 65.7W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1230 48HR VT 04/1800Z 50.6N 61.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1231 72HR VT 05/1800Z 61.0N 52.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1232 96HR VT 06/1800Z 68.0N 46.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 1233120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED 1234 1235$$ 1236FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN 1237 1238 1239