1WTNT35 KNHC 231749
2TCPAT5
3BULLETIN
4TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
5NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL152010
6200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010
7
8...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
9...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
10
11
12SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
13----------------------------------------------
14LOCATION...13.9N 76.2W
15ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
16MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
17PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
18MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
19
20
21WATCHES AND WARNINGS
22--------------------
23CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
24
25THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
26A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
27HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF
28HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
29FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING
30THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.
31
32SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
33
34A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
35* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
36OFFSHORE ISLANDS.
37
38A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
39* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
40OFFSHORE ISLANDS.
41
42A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
43EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
44
45A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
46WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
47BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
48WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
49DANGEROUS.
50
51FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
52PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
53
54
55DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
56------------------------------
57AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
58WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE
59DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
60THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
61ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
62NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
63MORNING.
64
65MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
66GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
67DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
68
69ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
70RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
71
72
73HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
74----------------------
75WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
76COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
77PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
78
79STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
80FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
81NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
82DANGEROUS WAVES.
83
84RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
85ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
86HONDURAS.
87
88
89NEXT ADVISORY
90-------------
91NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
92
93$$
94FORECASTER STEWART
95
96
97WTNT35 KNHC 231749
98TCPAT5
99BULLETIN
100TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
101NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL152010
102200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010
103
104...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
105...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
106
107
108SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
109----------------------------------------------
110LOCATION...13.9N 76.2W
111ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
112MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
113PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
114MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
115
116
117WATCHES AND WARNINGS
118--------------------
119CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
120
121THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
122A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
123HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF
124HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
125FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING
126THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.
127
128SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
129
130A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
131* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
132OFFSHORE ISLANDS.
133
134A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
135* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
136OFFSHORE ISLANDS.
137
138A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
139EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
140
141A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
142WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
143BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
144WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
145DANGEROUS.
146
147FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
148PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
149
150
151DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
152------------------------------
153AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
154WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE
155DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
156THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
157ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
158NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
159MORNING.
160
161MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
162GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
163DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
164
165ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
166RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
167
168
169HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
170----------------------
171WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
172COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
173PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
174
175STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
176FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
177NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
178DANGEROUS WAVES.
179
180RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
181ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
182HONDURAS.
183
184
185NEXT ADVISORY
186-------------
187NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
188
189$$
190FORECASTER STEWART
191
192
193
194