1WTNT35 KNHC 231749 2TCPAT5 3BULLETIN 4TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 5NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010 6200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010 7 8...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... 9...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... 10 11 12SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 13---------------------------------------------- 14LOCATION...13.9N 76.2W 15ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA 16MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR 17PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 18MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES 19 20 21WATCHES AND WARNINGS 22-------------------- 23CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 24 25THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND 26A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH 27HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF 28HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH 29FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING 30THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. 31 32SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 33 34A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 35* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE 36OFFSHORE ISLANDS. 37 38A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 39* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE 40OFFSHORE ISLANDS. 41 42A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 43EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 44 45A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 46WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS 47BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 48WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR 49DANGEROUS. 50 51FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 52PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 53 54 55DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 56------------------------------ 57AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN 58WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE 59DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND 60THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 61ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE 62NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY 63MORNING. 64 65MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 66GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE 67DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. 68 69ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 70RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. 71 72 73HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 74---------------------- 75WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE 76COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE 77PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 78 79STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 80FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 81NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 82DANGEROUS WAVES. 83 84RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN 85ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND 86HONDURAS. 87 88 89NEXT ADVISORY 90------------- 91NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. 92 93$$ 94FORECASTER STEWART 95 96 97WTNT35 KNHC 231749 98TCPAT5 99BULLETIN 100TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 101NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010 102200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010 103 104...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... 105...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... 106 107 108SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 109---------------------------------------------- 110LOCATION...13.9N 76.2W 111ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA 112MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR 113PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 114MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES 115 116 117WATCHES AND WARNINGS 118-------------------- 119CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 120 121THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND 122A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH 123HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF 124HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH 125FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING 126THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. 127 128SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 129 130A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... 131* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE 132OFFSHORE ISLANDS. 133 134A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 135* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE 136OFFSHORE ISLANDS. 137 138A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 139EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 140 141A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 142WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS 143BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 144WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR 145DANGEROUS. 146 147FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR 148PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 149 150 151DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 152------------------------------ 153AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN 154WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE 155DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND 156THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 157ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE 158NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY 159MORNING. 160 161MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 162GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE 163DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. 164 165ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 166RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. 167 168 169HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 170---------------------- 171WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE 172COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE 173PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. 174 175STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL 176FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 177NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND 178DANGEROUS WAVES. 179 180RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN 181ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND 182HONDURAS. 183 184 185NEXT ADVISORY 186------------- 187NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. 188 189$$ 190FORECASTER STEWART 191 192 193 194