1WTNT43 KNHC 142052
2TCDAT3
3TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
5500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010
6
7AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW
8PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND
9VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.
10THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
11EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
12OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
13PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
14STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
15
16THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
17A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE
18TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
19KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
20THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
21MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
22GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
23MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
24COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
25MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
26GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
27
28KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
29AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  THE MAJOR
30INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.  WHILE THE
31INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
32YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
33AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS.  OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
34RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
35BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
36CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
37WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER FINAL
38LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
39MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
40
41
42FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
43
44INITIAL      14/2100Z 18.3N  84.2W    35 KT
45 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.9N  86.0W    40 KT
46 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.6N  88.1W    45 KT...INLAND
47 36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  90.3W    30 KT...INLAND
48 48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N  92.6W    35 KT...OVER WATER
49 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N  96.0W    55 KT
50 96HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
51120HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
52
53$$
54FORECASTER BEVEN
55
56
57WTNT43 KNHC 150243
58TCDAT3
59TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
60NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
611000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
62
63THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KARL
64EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT
65AND SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 34-39 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
66THE CENTER AS IT EXITED THE STORM.  THESE DATA WERE THE BASIS FOR
67THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
68THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT
69TIME...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.  THE NEXT AIR
70FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH KARL
71AROUND 0600 UTC.
72
73THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND A COUPLE OF RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
74SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
75MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT
76EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
77INHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
78BEFORE KARL REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  OVER
79THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
80EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE
81GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW KARL
82AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND
83MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
84WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN
85PENINSULA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODEL
86AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL TO HURRICANE STATUS
87AT THAT TIME.
88
89THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
90UNCHANGED.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
91AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE
92NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
93THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASED SPREAD THEREAFTER...AS SOME OF THE
94MODELS TURN KARL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
95MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
96ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
97
98FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
99
100INITIAL      15/0300Z 18.6N  85.5W    40 KT
101 12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.2N  87.3W    50 KT
102 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
103 36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.7N  91.6W    35 KT
104 48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.1N  93.4W    50 KT
105 72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  96.7W    65 KT
106 96HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND
107120HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
108
109$$
110FORECASTER BROWN
111
112
113WTNT43 KNHC 150840
114TCDAT3
115TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
116NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
117400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
118
119THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL EARLY
120THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE
121THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL
122PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 995 MB AND THE MAXIMUM UNCONTAMINATED
123SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND VELOCITIES WERE ABOUT 55 KT...WHICH IS
124THE VALUE USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE
125IMAGES SHOW THAT A RATHER SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
126IS DEVELOPING OVER KARL...SO SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD
127OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  FORTUNATELY...THE TIME IS SHORT BEFORE THE
128CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST.
129
130KARL WOBBLED WESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES
131INDICATE THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 285/11...HAS
132RESUMED.  BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
133RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
134FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
135WESTWARD TRACK APPEARS LIKELY...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS
136THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
137FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
138THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
139GUIDANCE.
140
141FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
142
143INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.5N  86.7W    55 KT
144 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.1N  88.3W    50 KT...INLAND
145 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
146 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N  92.6W    45 KT
147 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.3N  94.4W    60 KT
148 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  97.2W    75 KT
149 96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND
150120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
151
152$$
153FORECASTER PASCH
154
155
156WTNT43 KNHC 151440
157TCDAT3
158TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
159NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1601000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
161
162THE CENTER OF KARL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
163YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 1245 UTC.  BEFORE LANDFALL...
164AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL
165PRESSURE NEAR 991 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT JUST
166NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 50-55
167KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.
168DATA FROM THE RADAR IN BELIZE CITY SHOWED THAT KARL WAS DEVELOPING
169AN EYE AT LANDFALL...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OTHER EVIDENCE TO
170SUGGEST IT REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTER
171DEPARTED.
172
173KARL HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
174WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/12.  KARL REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
175OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
176COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
177WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
178MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
179GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A MORE
180NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS
181MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
182THE TWO MODEL CAMPS AND LIE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
183MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
184PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.
185
186KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES
187THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ONCE THE CENTER REACHES
188WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
189VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY
190ALL GUIDANCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
191PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR KARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
192MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  KARL SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER ITS
193SECOND LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
194BY 120 HR.
195
196FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
197
198INITIAL      15/1500Z 18.6N  88.2W    50 KT...INLAND
199 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.1N  89.7W    35 KT...INLAND
200 24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.1N  91.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER
201 36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.9N  93.7W    45 KT
202 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.3N  95.2W    60 KT
203 72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  98.0W    75 KT...INLAND
204 96HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
205120HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
206
207$$
208FORECASTER BEVEN
209
210
211WTNT43 KNHC 152032
212TCDAT3
213TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
214NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
215400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
216
217KARL IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN
218PENINSULA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR
219INDICATE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION...BUT
220THIS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THERE ARE
221NO OBSERVATION AVAILABLE NEAR THE CORE...AND THUS THE INITIAL
222INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
223
224THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/13.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH
225SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
226COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
227WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
228MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
229GUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF INDICATING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION ON THE
230RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDN A MORE WESTWARD
231MOTION ON THE LEFT.  SEVERAL OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW
232FORECAST KARL TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
233OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND ALSO FORECAST A TURN TO SOUTH OF WEST
234MOTION NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
235REFLECTS BOTH OF THESE POSSIBILITIES...WITH THE NEW TRACK BEING
236SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER
23736 HR.
238
239KARL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT
240REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HR.
241ONCE THE CENTER REACHES WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE
242TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
243RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
244THAT THE HWRF...WHILE FORECASTING STRENGTHENING...HAS CONSISTENTLY
245KEPT KARL AT LESS THAN HURRICANE STRENGTH.  GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY
246FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KARL TO
247REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AGREEMENT WITH
248THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THE FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF
24970 KT...BUT KARL COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN THAT BETWEEN THE 48 AND
25072 HR FORECAST POINTS.
251
252FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
253
254INITIAL      15/2100Z 19.0N  89.4W    40 KT...INLAND
255 12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N  90.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
256 24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N  92.7W    35 KT
257 36HR VT     17/0600Z 21.1N  94.4W    50 KT
258 48HR VT     17/1800Z 21.3N  95.7W    65 KT
259 72HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  98.5W    70 KT...INLAND
260 96HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
261120HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
262
263$$
264FORECASTER BEVEN
265
266
267WTNT43 KNHC 160239
268TCDAT3
269TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
270NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
2711000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
272
273DESPITE KARL BEING OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN
274CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THERE IS A RING OF
275VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR AREA WHICH RESEMBLES AN
276EYE FEATURE...PROBABLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL
277VIGOROUS AT THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
278YUCATAN PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
279ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO RAINBANDS MAINLY OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
280INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE OUTSTANDING STRUCTURE ON
281SATELLITE AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH
282PREVAILS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
283CALLS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE THE CIRCULATION MOVES BACK OVER
284WATER. KARL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
285WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE
286GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING KARL.
287
288KARL APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
289AT 13 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NEARLY
290STATIONARY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
291OF MEXICO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KARL ON A GENERAL
292WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
293FORECAST KEEPS KARL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR
294THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BRINGS KARL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A
295HURRICANE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE
296TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING KARL ANCHORED IN
297THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 22 DEGREES NORTH.
298
299
300FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
301
302INITIAL      16/0300Z 19.4N  90.7W    35 KT
303 12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N  92.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER
304 24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.7N  93.8W    50 KT
305 36HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N  95.5W    55 KT
306 48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  97.5W    65 KT
307 72HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N  99.5W    25 KT...INLAND
308 96HR VT     20/0000Z 21.0N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND
309120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
310
311$$
312FORECASTER AVILA
313
314
315WTNT43 KNHC 160859
316TCDAT3
317TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
318NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
319400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
320
321THE CENTER OF KARL EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 0330 AND
3220400 UTC AFTER MAINTAINING AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
323LAND...WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN INFRARED
324IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
3253.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FOR THIS ADVISORY THE INITIAL
326INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
327WIND FIELD WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN UP AFTER MOVING OVER WATER.
328KARL SEEMS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
329VERY WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ALSO...
330GIVEN THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...KARL WILL
331LIKELY HAVE MORE TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MEXICO.
332THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE
333PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT AROUND THE
334TIME OF LANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
335
336THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 KT.  KARL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A
337STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
338COAST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
339DAYS.  THIS WILL STEER KARL WILL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
340OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
341BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
342AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.  WHILE THE MODELS REMAIN IN
343AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
344CYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF...HAS SLOWED
345AND SHIFTED SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
346DIRECTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS AND THE TVCN
347MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...
348THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.
349
350FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
351
352INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.8N  91.6W    45 KT
353 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N  93.0W    55 KT
354 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N  94.7W    60 KT
355 36HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N  96.1W    70 KT
356 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.1N  97.4W    75 KT...INLAND
357 72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W    35 KT...INLAND
358 96HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
359120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
360
361$$
362FORECASTER BRENNAN
363
364
365WTNT43 KNHC 161224
366TCDAT3
367TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
368NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
369730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
370
371AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT KARL WAS
372SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY ABOUT 30 N MI.  THE PLANE
373MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
374WINDS SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  THIS SPECIAL
375ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO SHIFT THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE
376FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
377INTENSITY FORECAST.
378
379
380FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
381
382INITIAL      16/1230Z 19.7N  92.2W    55 KT
383 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N  93.7W    65 KT
384 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N  94.5W    75 KT
385 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.8N  96.8W    85 KT
386 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    75 KT...INLAND
387 72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
388 96HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
389120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
390
391$$
392FORECASTER BEVEN
393
394
395WTNT43 KNHC 161455
396TCDAT3
397HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
398NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
3991000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
400
401AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB
402FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 76 KT IN A DEVELOPING EYEWALL...WITH
403SURFACE WINDS ESTIMATES OF 60-65 KT FROM THE SFMR.  THE CENTRAL
404PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 983 MB.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
405TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...KARL IS UPGRADED TO
406A 65-KT HURRICANE.
407
408THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
409SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWARD TRACK
410FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 36 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
411WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
412THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS...
413ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH KARL COULD
414GET BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
415SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
416MOTION...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
417ENVELOPE.
418
419ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG
420THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
421VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
422STEADILY...AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM MODEL FORECASTS 100 KT
423IN 36 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL 85 KT...AND THE GFDL MODEL 97 KT.  THE
424INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A 95 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL AS A BLEND
425OF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD
426BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL
427SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
428AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HR.
429
430FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
431
432INITIAL      16/1500Z 19.7N  92.8W    65 KT
433 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N  93.9W    75 KT
434 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N  95.5W    85 KT
435 36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  97.0W    95 KT
436 48HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  98.8W    50 KT...INLAND
437 72HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
438 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
439
440$$
441FORECASTER BEVEN
442
443
444WTNT43 KNHC 162045
445TCDAT3
446HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
447NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
448400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
449
450REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KARL IS
451STRENGTHENING.  A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
452OF 977 MB...AND THERE WERE TWO SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 69 KT FROM
453THE SFMR.  IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL
454SUPPORTS 70 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL
455WINDS OF 83 KT AT 12000 FT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL
456INTENSITY TO 70 KT.
457
458KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
459INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
460SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
461FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
462WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
463OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
464SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
465MODELS SHOWING ANY NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION BEFORE
466LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
467ONE...SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL AND A
468SOUTH OF WEST MOTION THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS TO
469THE SOUTH OF THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS...BUT TO THE
470NORTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
471
472ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
473ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
474LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
475STEADILY AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM...SHIPS...GFDL...AND
476FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST KARL TO BECOME A CATEGORY
477TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A
47885 KT LANDFALL INTENSITY AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT
479OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
480LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
481INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
48296 HR IF NOT SOONER.
483
484THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS REQUIRED WARNINGS TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
485SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW
486FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS COMPARED TO
48736 HOURS FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT
488OF TIME AVAILABLE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS.
489
490FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
491
492INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.6N  93.7W    70 KT
493 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.7N  94.9W    75 KT
494 24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.2W    85 KT
495 36HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    55 KT...INLAND
496 48HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
497 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND
498 96HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
499
500$$
501FORECASTER BEVEN
502
503
504WTNT43 KNHC 170240
505TCDAT3
506HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
507NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
5081000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
509
510THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
511THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
512HAVE REACHED T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 90 KNOTS AT
5130000 UTC. SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT...
514SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A RECONNAISSANCE
515PLANE CROSSED THE EYE A FEW TIMES THIS EVENING.  THE CENTRAL
516PRESSURE DROPPED TO 968 MB AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REACHED 90
517KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ACCOMPANIED BY SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF
51885 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
519TO 85 KNOTS.  THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
520SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS WE SPEAK. KARL HAS
521LESS THAN A DAY BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
522ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KARL TO BE A CATEGORY
523THREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL
524OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT KARL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
525TORRENTIAL RAINS.
526
527KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED
528SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
529MEXICO. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH THE
530ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AMONG
531MODELS...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP KARL ON A STRAIGHT
532WESTWARD PATH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOLLOWED BY A LANDFALL OVER
533THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
534THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
535
536
537FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
538
539INITIAL      17/0300Z 19.7N  94.5W    85 KT
540 12HR VT     17/1200Z 19.7N  95.6W   100 KT
541 24HR VT     18/0000Z 19.7N  96.8W    65 KT...INLAND
542 36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.5N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND
543 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.5N 100.0W    20 KT...INLAND
544 72HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATING INLAND
545
546$$
547FORECASTER AVILA
548
549
550WTNT43 KNHC 170837
551TCDAT3
552HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
553NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
554400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
555
556THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
557LEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM
558PRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC.
559SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND
560THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
561ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC.  THE
562INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...
563ASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE
564PRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  ANOTHER HURRICANE
565HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KARL THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE
566ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.  KARL STILL HAS
567THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER VERY WARM WATERS PRIOR
568TO LANDFALL LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
569AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
570MEXICO AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
571ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE
572AFTER THIS TIME OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
573
574THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS WESTWARD...OR 270 DEGREES...AT 8
575KNOTS.  KARL WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-
576LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WHILE THERE
577REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF
578KARL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
579SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION OF 7 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL LATER TODAY.
580AFTER THAT TIME A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL
581DISSIPATION.
582
583FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
584
585INITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N  95.3W   105 KT
586 12HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.3W   120 KT
587 24HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    65 KT...INLAND
588 36HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.2W    30 KT...INLAND
589 48HR VT     19/0600Z 19.4N 100.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
590 72HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
591
592$$
593FORECASTER BRENNAN
594
595
596WTNT43 KNHC 171447
597TCDAT3
598HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
599NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
6001000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
601
602KARL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
603THE 10 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
604THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED.  IN ADDITION...THE
605CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE 12Z...WITH THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED
606PRESSURE OF 967 MB.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
607REPORTED AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 103 KT FROM THE STEPPED
608FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WITH
609700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT.  THESE DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR
610THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT.
611
612KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
613INITIAL MOTION NOW 260/7.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
614MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR
615THE NEXT 48-72 HR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
616OF MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
617PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES
618TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
619
620GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
621BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER
622THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
623TO DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
624CONTINUE AFTER THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
625
626FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
627
628INITIAL      17/1500Z 19.4N  95.9W   105 KT
629 12HR VT     18/0000Z 19.2N  96.9W    80 KT...INLAND
630 24HR VT     18/1200Z 19.1N  98.2W    40 KT...INLAND
631 36HR VT     19/0000Z 19.1N  99.7W    25 KT...INLAND
632 48HR VT     19/1200Z 19.1N 101.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
633 72HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
634
635$$
636FORECASTER BEVEN
637
638
639WTNT43 KNHC 172031
640TCDAT3
641HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
642NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
643400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
644
645KARL MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT
646ABOUT 1630Z.  BEFORE LANDFALL...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RAPIDLY ROSE
647FROM 957 MB TO 976 MB OVER A 4.5 HOUR PERIOD FOR REASONS THAT ARE
648NOT READILY APPARENT.  DESPITE THIS...THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS
649SUPPORTED MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.  SINCE LANDFALL
650THE HURRICANE HAS STEADILY WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65180 KT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.  KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
652MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
653DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR.
654
655THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
656SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KARL TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
657UNTIL DISSIPATION.
658
659FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
660
661INITIAL      17/2100Z 19.1N  96.6W    80 KT...INLAND
662 12HR VT     18/0600Z 18.8N  97.7W    50 KT...INLAND
663 24HR VT     18/1800Z 18.7N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
664 36HR VT     19/0600Z 18.7N 100.6W    25 KT...INLAND
665 48HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
666
667$$
668FORECASTER BEVEN
669
670
671WTNT43 KNHC 180232
672TCDAT3
673TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
674NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
6751000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
676
677KARL MOVED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND QUICKLY
678WEAKENED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE CIRCULATION ARE VERY
679DISRUPTED WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED. THERE
680ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF
681STRONG WINDS BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30
682KNOTS...WITH PERHAPS STRONGER WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
683KARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6
684KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
685DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...OR LESS.
686
687
688FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
689
690INITIAL      18/0300Z 18.6N  97.4W    30 KT
691 12HR VT     18/1200Z 18.1N  98.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
692 24HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
693
694$$
695FORECASTER AVILA
696
697
698WTNT43 KNHC 142052
699TCDAT3
700TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
701NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
702500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010
703
704AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW
705PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND
706VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.
707THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
708EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
709OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
710PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
711STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
712
713THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
714A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE
715TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
716KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
717THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
718MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
719GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
720MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
721COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
722MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
723GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
724
725KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
726AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  THE MAJOR
727INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.  WHILE THE
728INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
729YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
730AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS.  OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
731RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
732BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
733CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
734WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER FINAL
735LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
736MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
737
738
739FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
740
741INITIAL      14/2100Z 18.3N  84.2W    35 KT
74212HR VT     15/0600Z 18.9N  86.0W    40 KT
74324HR VT     15/1800Z 19.6N  88.1W    45 KT...INLAND
74436HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  90.3W    30 KT...INLAND
74548HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N  92.6W    35 KT...OVER WATER
74672HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N  96.0W    55 KT
74796HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
748120HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
749
750$$
751FORECASTER BEVEN
752
753
754
755000
756
757WTNT43 KNHC 150243
758TCDAT3
759TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
760NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
7611000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
762
763THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KARL
764EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT
765AND SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 34-39 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
766THE CENTER AS IT EXITED THE STORM.  THESE DATA WERE THE BASIS FOR
767THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
768THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT
769TIME...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.  THE NEXT AIR
770FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH KARL
771AROUND 0600 UTC.
772
773THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND A COUPLE OF RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
774SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
775MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT
776EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
777INHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
778BEFORE KARL REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  OVER
779THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
780EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE
781GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW KARL
782AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND
783MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
784WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN
785PENINSULA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODEL
786AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL TO HURRICANE STATUS
787AT THAT TIME.
788
789THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
790UNCHANGED.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
791AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE
792NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
793THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASED SPREAD THEREAFTER...AS SOME OF THE
794MODELS TURN KARL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
795MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
796ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
797
798FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
799
800INITIAL      15/0300Z 18.6N  85.5W    40 KT
80112HR VT     15/1200Z 19.2N  87.3W    50 KT
80224HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
80336HR VT     16/1200Z 20.7N  91.6W    35 KT
80448HR VT     17/0000Z 21.1N  93.4W    50 KT
80572HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  96.7W    65 KT
80696HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND
807120HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
808
809$$
810FORECASTER BROWN
811
812
813
814000
815
816WTNT43 KNHC 150840
817TCDAT3
818TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
819NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
820400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
821
822THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL EARLY
823THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE
824THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL
825PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 995 MB AND THE MAXIMUM UNCONTAMINATED
826SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND VELOCITIES WERE ABOUT 55 KT...WHICH IS
827THE VALUE USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE
828IMAGES SHOW THAT A RATHER SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
829IS DEVELOPING OVER KARL...SO SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD
830OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  FORTUNATELY...THE TIME IS SHORT BEFORE THE
831CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST.
832
833KARL WOBBLED WESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES
834INDICATE THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 285/11...HAS
835RESUMED.  BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
836RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
837FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
838WESTWARD TRACK APPEARS LIKELY...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS
839THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
840FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
841THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
842GUIDANCE.
843
844FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
845
846INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.5N  86.7W    55 KT
84712HR VT     15/1800Z 19.1N  88.3W    50 KT...INLAND
84824HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
84936HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N  92.6W    45 KT
85048HR VT     17/0600Z 21.3N  94.4W    60 KT
85172HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  97.2W    75 KT
85296HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND
853120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
854
855$$
856FORECASTER PASCH
857
858
859
860000
861
862WTNT43 KNHC 151440
863TCDAT3
864TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
865NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
8661000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
867
868THE CENTER OF KARL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
869YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 1245 UTC.  BEFORE LANDFALL...
870AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL
871PRESSURE NEAR 991 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT JUST
872NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 50-55
873KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.
874DATA FROM THE RADAR IN BELIZE CITY SHOWED THAT KARL WAS DEVELOPING
875AN EYE AT LANDFALL...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OTHER EVIDENCE TO
876SUGGEST IT REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTER
877DEPARTED.
878
879KARL HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
880WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/12.  KARL REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
881OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
882COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
883WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
884MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
885GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A MORE
886NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS
887MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
888THE TWO MODEL CAMPS AND LIE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
889MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
890PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.
891
892KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES
893THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ONCE THE CENTER REACHES
894WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
895VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY
896ALL GUIDANCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
897PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR KARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
898MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  KARL SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER ITS
899SECOND LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
900BY 120 HR.
901
902FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
903
904INITIAL      15/1500Z 18.6N  88.2W    50 KT...INLAND
90512HR VT     16/0000Z 19.1N  89.7W    35 KT...INLAND
90624HR VT     16/1200Z 20.1N  91.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER
90736HR VT     17/0000Z 20.9N  93.7W    45 KT
90848HR VT     17/1200Z 21.3N  95.2W    60 KT
90972HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  98.0W    75 KT...INLAND
91096HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
911120HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
912
913$$
914FORECASTER BEVEN
915
916
917
918000
919
920WTNT43 KNHC 152032
921TCDAT3
922TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
923NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
924400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
925
926KARL IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN
927PENINSULA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR
928INDICATE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION...BUT
929THIS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THERE ARE
930NO OBSERVATION AVAILABLE NEAR THE CORE...AND THUS THE INITIAL
931INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
932
933THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/13.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH
934SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
935COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
936WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
937MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
938GUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF INDICATING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION ON THE
939RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDN A MORE WESTWARD
940MOTION ON THE LEFT.  SEVERAL OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW
941FORECAST KARL TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
942OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND ALSO FORECAST A TURN TO SOUTH OF WEST
943MOTION NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
944REFLECTS BOTH OF THESE POSSIBILITIES...WITH THE NEW TRACK BEING
945SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER
94636 HR.
947
948KARL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT
949REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HR.
950ONCE THE CENTER REACHES WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE
951TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
952RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
953THAT THE HWRF...WHILE FORECASTING STRENGTHENING...HAS CONSISTENTLY
954KEPT KARL AT LESS THAN HURRICANE STRENGTH.  GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY
955FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KARL TO
956REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AGREEMENT WITH
957THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THE FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF
95870 KT...BUT KARL COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN THAT BETWEEN THE 48 AND
95972 HR FORECAST POINTS.
960
961FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
962
963INITIAL      15/2100Z 19.0N  89.4W    40 KT...INLAND
96412HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N  90.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
96524HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N  92.7W    35 KT
96636HR VT     17/0600Z 21.1N  94.4W    50 KT
96748HR VT     17/1800Z 21.3N  95.7W    65 KT
96872HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  98.5W    70 KT...INLAND
96996HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
970120HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
971
972$$
973FORECASTER BEVEN
974
975
976
977000
978
979WTNT43 KNHC 160239
980TCDAT3
981TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
982NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
9831000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
984
985DESPITE KARL BEING OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN
986CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THERE IS A RING OF
987VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR AREA WHICH RESEMBLES AN
988EYE FEATURE...PROBABLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL
989VIGOROUS AT THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
990YUCATAN PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
991ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO RAINBANDS MAINLY OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
992INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE OUTSTANDING STRUCTURE ON
993SATELLITE AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH
994PREVAILS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
995CALLS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE THE CIRCULATION MOVES BACK OVER
996WATER. KARL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
997WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE
998GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING KARL.
999
1000KARL APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
1001AT 13 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NEARLY
1002STATIONARY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
1003OF MEXICO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KARL ON A GENERAL
1004WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
1005FORECAST KEEPS KARL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR
1006THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BRINGS KARL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A
1007HURRICANE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE
1008TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING KARL ANCHORED IN
1009THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 22 DEGREES NORTH.
1010
1011
1012FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
1013
1014INITIAL      16/0300Z 19.4N  90.7W    35 KT
101512HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N  92.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER
101624HR VT     17/0000Z 20.7N  93.8W    50 KT
101736HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N  95.5W    55 KT
101848HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  97.5W    65 KT
101972HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N  99.5W    25 KT...INLAND
102096HR VT     20/0000Z 21.0N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND
1021120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
1022
1023$$
1024FORECASTER AVILA
1025
1026
1027
1028000
1029
1030WTNT43 KNHC 160859
1031TCDAT3
1032TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
1033NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1034400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
1035
1036THE CENTER OF KARL EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 0330 AND
10370400 UTC AFTER MAINTAINING AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
1038LAND...WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN INFRARED
1039IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
10403.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FOR THIS ADVISORY THE INITIAL
1041INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
1042WIND FIELD WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN UP AFTER MOVING OVER WATER.
1043KARL SEEMS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
1044VERY WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ALSO...
1045GIVEN THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...KARL WILL
1046LIKELY HAVE MORE TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MEXICO.
1047THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE
1048PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT AROUND THE
1049TIME OF LANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
1050
1051THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 KT.  KARL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A
1052STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
1053COAST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
1054DAYS.  THIS WILL STEER KARL WILL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
1055OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
1056BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
1057AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.  WHILE THE MODELS REMAIN IN
1058AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
1059CYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF...HAS SLOWED
1060AND SHIFTED SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
1061DIRECTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS AND THE TVCN
1062MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...
1063THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.
1064
1065FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
1066
1067INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.8N  91.6W    45 KT
106812HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N  93.0W    55 KT
106924HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N  94.7W    60 KT
107036HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N  96.1W    70 KT
107148HR VT     18/0600Z 21.1N  97.4W    75 KT...INLAND
107272HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W    35 KT...INLAND
107396HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
1074120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
1075
1076$$
1077FORECASTER BRENNAN
1078
1079
1080
1081
1082WTNT43 KNHC 161224
1083TCDAT3
1084TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
1085NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1086730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
1087
1088AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT KARL WAS
1089SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY ABOUT 30 N MI.  THE PLANE
1090MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
1091WINDS SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  THIS SPECIAL
1092ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO SHIFT THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE
1093FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
1094INTENSITY FORECAST.
1095
1096
1097FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
1098
1099INITIAL      16/1230Z 19.7N  92.2W    55 KT
110012HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N  93.7W    65 KT
110124HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N  94.5W    75 KT
110236HR VT     17/1800Z 20.8N  96.8W    85 KT
110348HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    75 KT...INLAND
110472HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
110596HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
1106120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
1107
1108$$
1109FORECASTER BEVEN
1110
1111
1112
1113
1114WTNT43 KNHC 161455
1115TCDAT3
1116HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
1117NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
11181000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
1119
1120AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB
1121FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 76 KT IN A DEVELOPING EYEWALL...WITH
1122SURFACE WINDS ESTIMATES OF 60-65 KT FROM THE SFMR.  THE CENTRAL
1123PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 983 MB.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
1124TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...KARL IS UPGRADED TO
1125A 65-KT HURRICANE.
1126
1127THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
1128SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWARD TRACK
1129FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 36 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
1130WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
1131THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS...
1132ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH KARL COULD
1133GET BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
1134SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
1135MOTION...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
1136ENVELOPE.
1137
1138ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG
1139THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
1140VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
1141STEADILY...AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM MODEL FORECASTS 100 KT
1142IN 36 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL 85 KT...AND THE GFDL MODEL 97 KT.  THE
1143INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A 95 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL AS A BLEND
1144OF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD
1145BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL
1146SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
1147AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HR.
1148
1149FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
1150
1151INITIAL      16/1500Z 19.7N  92.8W    65 KT
115212HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N  93.9W    75 KT
115324HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N  95.5W    85 KT
115436HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  97.0W    95 KT
115548HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  98.8W    50 KT...INLAND
115672HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
115796HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
1158
1159$$
1160FORECASTER BEVEN
1161
1162
1163
1164000
1165
1166WTNT43 KNHC 162045
1167TCDAT3
1168HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
1169NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1170400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
1171
1172REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KARL IS
1173STRENGTHENING.  A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
1174OF 977 MB...AND THERE WERE TWO SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 69 KT FROM
1175THE SFMR.  IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL
1176SUPPORTS 70 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL
1177WINDS OF 83 KT AT 12000 FT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL
1178INTENSITY TO 70 KT.
1179
1180KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
1181INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
1182SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
1183FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
1184WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
1185OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
1186SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
1187MODELS SHOWING ANY NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION BEFORE
1188LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
1189ONE...SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL AND A
1190SOUTH OF WEST MOTION THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS TO
1191THE SOUTH OF THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS...BUT TO THE
1192NORTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
1193
1194ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
1195ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
1196LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
1197STEADILY AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM...SHIPS...GFDL...AND
1198FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST KARL TO BECOME A CATEGORY
1199TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A
120085 KT LANDFALL INTENSITY AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT
1201OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
1202LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
1203INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
120496 HR IF NOT SOONER.
1205
1206THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS REQUIRED WARNINGS TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
1207SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW
1208FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS COMPARED TO
120936 HOURS FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT
1210OF TIME AVAILABLE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS.
1211
1212FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
1213
1214INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.6N  93.7W    70 KT
121512HR VT     17/0600Z 19.7N  94.9W    75 KT
121624HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.2W    85 KT
121736HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    55 KT...INLAND
121848HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
121972HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND
122096HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
1221
1222$$
1223FORECASTER BEVEN
1224
1225
1226
1227
1228WTNT43 KNHC 172031
1229TCDAT3
1230HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
1231NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1232400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
1233
1234KARL MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT
1235ABOUT 1630Z.  BEFORE LANDFALL...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RAPIDLY ROSE
1236FROM 957 MB TO 976 MB OVER A 4.5 HOUR PERIOD FOR REASONS THAT ARE
1237NOT READILY APPARENT.  DESPITE THIS...THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS
1238SUPPORTED MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.  SINCE LANDFALL
1239THE HURRICANE HAS STEADILY WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
124080 KT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.  KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
1241MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
1242DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR.
1243
1244THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
1245SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KARL TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
1246UNTIL DISSIPATION.
1247
1248FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
1249
1250INITIAL      17/2100Z 19.1N  96.6W    80 KT...INLAND
125112HR VT     18/0600Z 18.8N  97.7W    50 KT...INLAND
125224HR VT     18/1800Z 18.7N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
125336HR VT     19/0600Z 18.7N 100.6W    25 KT...INLAND
125448HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
1255
1256$$
1257FORECASTER BEVEN
1258
1259
1260
1261000
1262
1263WTNT43 KNHC 180232
1264TCDAT3
1265TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
1266NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
12671000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
1268
1269KARL MOVED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND QUICKLY
1270WEAKENED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE CIRCULATION ARE VERY
1271DISRUPTED WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED. THERE
1272ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF
1273STRONG WINDS BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30
1274KNOTS...WITH PERHAPS STRONGER WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
1275KARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6
1276KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
1277DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...OR LESS.
1278
1279
1280FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
1281
1282INITIAL      18/0300Z 18.6N  97.4W    30 KT
128312HR VT     18/1200Z 18.1N  98.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
128424HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
1285
1286$$
1287FORECASTER AVILA
1288
1289
1290
1291000
1292
1293WTNT43 KNHC 180830
1294TCDAT3
1295TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
1296NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1297400 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010
1298
1299SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KARL HAS
1300DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  A FEW
1301THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND
1302LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
1303SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.
1304
1305FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
1306
1307INITIAL      18/0900Z 18.5N  97.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
1308
1309$$
1310FORECASTER BLAKE
1311
1312
1313