1WTNT33 KNHC 221459 2TCPAT3 3BULLETIN 4TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 5NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 61100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 7 8...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS...AIR FORCE 9RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE... 10 11 12SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 13----------------------------------------------- 14LOCATION...21.9N 75.0W 15ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF NASSAU 16ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA 17MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR 18PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 19MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES 20 21 22WATCHES AND WARNINGS 23-------------------- 24CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 25 26THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING 27FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. 28 29A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST 30FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND 31FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO 32BONITA BEACH. 33 34A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA 35FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE 36OKEECHOBEE. 37 38SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 39 40A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 41* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 42* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING 43THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST 44OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH 45 46A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 47* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 48INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE 49 50A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 51EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 52 53A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 54POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 55 56FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 57STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 58MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 59FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE 60UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 61METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 62 63 64DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 65------------------------------ 66AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL 67DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 6875.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6915 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD 70SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 71 72MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 73GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. 74 75ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. 76 77 78HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 79---------------------- 80WIND...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING 81PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 82WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 83TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON 84THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON 85FRIDAY. 86 87RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN 88ACCUMULATIONS OF OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH 89POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL 90AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND 91NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 92INCHES. 93 94STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 952 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE 96FLORIDA KEYS. 97 98 99NEXT ADVISORY 100------------- 101NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. 102NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. 103 104$$ 105FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS 106 107 108WTNT33 KNHC 221737 109TCPAT3 110BULLETIN 111TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A 112NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 113200 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 114 115...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE 116DEPRESSION... 117 118 119SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 120---------------------------------------------- 121LOCATION...22.3N 74.9W 122ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF NASSAU 123ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM ESE OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA 124MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR 125PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR 126MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES 127 128 129WATCHES AND WARNINGS 130-------------------- 131CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 132 133NONE 134 135SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 136 137A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 138* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 139* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING 140THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST 141OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH 142 143A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 144* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 145INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE 146 147A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 148EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 149 150A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 151POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 152 153FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 154STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 155MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 156FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE 157UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 158METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 159 160 161DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 162------------------------------ 163RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO 164THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCATION PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 200 PM 165EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS 166ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. THE 167DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT 168SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 169KM/HR SOON...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 170 171MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 172GUSTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE 173DEPRESSION AND WILL DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL 174STORM. 175 176ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. 177 178 179HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 180---------------------- 181WIND...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING 182PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 183WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND 184FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA 185COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY. 186 187RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN 188ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH 189POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL 190AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND 191NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 192INCHES. 193 194STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1952 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE 196FLORIDA KEYS. 197 198 199NEXT ADVISORY 200------------- 201NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. 202 203$$ 204FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS 205 206 207WTNT33 KNHC 222031 208TCPAT3 209BULLETIN 210TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 211NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 212500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 213 214...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 215HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... 216 217 218SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 219---------------------------------------------- 220LOCATION...22.7N 75.4W 221ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF NASSAU 222ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA 223MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR 224PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR 225MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 226 227 228WATCHES AND WARNINGS 229-------------------- 230CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 231 232NONE 233 234SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 235 236A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... 237* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 238* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING 239THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST 240OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH 241 242A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... 243* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 244INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE 245 246A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 247EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. 248 249A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 250POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. 251 252FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED 253STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE 254MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 255FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE 256UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 257METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 258 259 260DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 261------------------------------ 262AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE 263WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. THE 264DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 265KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD 266SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. 267 268DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS 269NOT STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 270KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE 271DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. 272 273THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE 274PLANE WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. 275 276 277HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 278---------------------- 279WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND 280NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL 281BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN 282THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING. 283 284RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN 285ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH 286POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL 287AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND 288NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 289INCHES. 290 291STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2922 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE 293FLORIDA KEYS. 294 295 296NEXT ADVISORY 297------------- 298NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. 299NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. 300 301$$ 302FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS 303 304 305