1WTNT42 KNHC 080314 2TCDAT2 3TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 4NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010 51000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010 6 7DATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE 8OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE 9WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE 10CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION 11HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE 12EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM TWO 13NOAA AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DEPRESSION 14INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND 15THIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. 16 17THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10 DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL 18CENTER REFORMING WITHIN THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH 19THERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS A RESULT OF POSSIBLE FURTHER 20REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE 21TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A 22GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL 23GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 24STEADILY SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE EASTERN AND 25CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT 26TO STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER AREA. THE 27FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL 28GUIDANCE SUITE. 29 30WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOVE 28C AND THE 31VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT 3224 HOURS OR SO OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AS A 33RESULT...SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UP UNTIL THAT TIME. THE 34SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 46 KT BY LANDFALL...BUT DUE 35TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE 36SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL IS EXPECTED. 37 38THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL 39OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN 40CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY 41BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND 42NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX. 43 44 45FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 46 47INITIAL 08/0300Z 23.9N 93.9W 30 KT 48 12HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 95.5W 35 KT 49 24HR VT 09/0000Z 26.0N 97.6W 40 KT...INLAND 50 36HR VT 09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 51 48HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND 52 53$$ 54FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI 55 56 57WTNT42 KNHC 080833 58TCDAT2 59TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 60NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010 61400 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010 62 63AFTER A PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 64EVENING...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS 65PRACTICALLY VANISHED. ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY 66OBSERVED ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. 67HOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO HAVE FLUCTUATIONS IN CONVECTION 68DURING FORMATIVE STAGE. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE 69AREA IN TWO OR THREE HOURS AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE THE STATUS OF 70THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS 71AT 30 KNOTS. SINCE THE GULF WATERS ARE WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL 72ENVIRONMENT IS NOT HOSTILE...A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION IS 73EXPECTED. IF SO...THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO 74BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING 75AREA LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN 76KEPT IN THIS ADVISORY. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW 77IMPORTANT STRENGTHENING. 78 79BOTH...INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST 80ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 81KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A 82PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS 83FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL 84DISSIPATION OVER LAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. 85 86THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RAINS 87ARE FORECAST TO OCURR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND 88RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS 89AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX. 90 91 92FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 93 94INITIAL 08/0900Z 24.8N 95.2W 30 KT 95 12HR VT 08/1800Z 25.8N 96.7W 35 KT 96 24HR VT 09/0600Z 26.5N 99.0W 25 KT...INLAND 97 36HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED 98 99$$ 100FORECASTER AVILA 101 102 103WTNT42 KNHC 081437 104TCDAT2 105TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 106NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010 1071000 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010 108 109REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE 110OBSERVATIONS...WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE...AND VISIBLE 111SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE 112SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER 113IS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME. 114OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS 115APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS. 116HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SHORT 117TIME REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE 118WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED 119WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. 120 121INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/13...BUT LANDFALL WITHIN 122THE WARNING AREA IS EXPECTED SHORTLY. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO 123THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST 124TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND 125TONIGHT. 126 127THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RAINS 128ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND 129RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS 130AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX. 131 132FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 133 134INITIAL 08/1500Z 26.0N 97.0W 30 KT 135 12HR VT 09/0000Z 27.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND 136 24HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED 137 138$$ 139FORECASTER PASCH/BERG 140 141 142WTNT42 KNHC 082031 143TCDAT2 144TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 145NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010 146400 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2010 147 148THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING INLAND NEAR THE 149TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SURFACE 150OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 15125 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 152WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. 153 154EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED....THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY 155TO REMAIN A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 156THESE RAINS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED 157GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF 158SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE 159ALEX. 160 161THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON 162TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. FUTURE ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM...OR ITS 163REMNANTS...WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION 164CENTER IN WASHINGTON 165 166FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 167 168INITIAL 08/2100Z 26.2N 98.4W 25 KT 169 12HR VT 09/0600Z 26.6N 100.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 170 24HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED 171 172$$ 173FORECASTER PASCH 174 175 176