1WTNT35 KNHC 250241 2TCPAT5 3 4BULLETIN 5TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 71100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015 8 9...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... 10 11 12SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 13----------------------------------------------- 14LOCATION...14.4N 47.7W 15ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 16MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 17PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H 18MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 19 20 21WATCHES AND WARNINGS 22-------------------- 23There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. 24 25Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of 26Erika. Watches may be required for a portion of the Leeward 27Islands early Tuesday. 28 29 30DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 31------------------------------ 32At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 33located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 47.7 West. Erika is 34moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to 35west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is 36expected during the next couple of days. 37 38Buoy observations and satellite wind data indicate that the maximum 39sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some 40strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. 41 42Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) 43from the center. Earlier this evening, NOAA buoy 41041 reported 44sustained winds of 45 mph with a gust to 51 mph. 45 46The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA 47buoy is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). 48 49 50HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 51---------------------- 52None 53 54 55NEXT ADVISORY 56------------- 57Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. 58 59$$ 60Forecaster Brown 61 62 63 64------------=_1440470519-56330-2543 65Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 66Content-Disposition: inline 67Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 68 69= = = == = = 70WTNT35 KNHC 250835 71TCPAT5 72 73BULLETIN 74TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 75NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 76500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 77 78...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD 79ISLANDS... 80 81 82SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 83---------------------------------------------- 84LOCATION...14.6N 49.4W 85ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 86MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 87PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H 88MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 89 90 91WATCHES AND WARNINGS 92-------------------- 93CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 94 95The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm 96Watch for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and 97Anguilla. 98 99The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm 100Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. 101 102SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 103 104A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 105* Montserrat 106* Antigua 107* Barbuda 108* St. Kitts and Nevis 109* Anguilla 110* Saba 111* St. Eustatius 112 113A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 114possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 115 116Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the 117progress of Erika, as watches may be required for additional areas 118later today. 119 120For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 121issued by your national meteorological service. 122 123 124DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 125------------------------------ 126At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 127located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.4 West. Erika is 128moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a westward to 129west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed 130are expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the 131center of Erika will approach the Leeward Islands Wednesday night 132and early Thursday. 133 134Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 135Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. 136 137Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) 138from the center. 139 140The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). 141 142 143HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 144---------------------- 145WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch 146area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. 147 148 149NEXT ADVISORY 150------------- 151Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. 152Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. 153 154$$ 155Forecaster Brennan 156 157 158 159------------=_1440491757-56330-2662 160Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 161Content-Disposition: inline 162Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 163 164= = = == = = 165WTNT35 KNHC 251446 166TCPAT5 167 168BULLETIN 169TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 170NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1711100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 172 173...ERIKA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME... 174 175 176SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 177----------------------------------------------- 178LOCATION...15.2N 51.0W 179ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 180MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 181PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H 182MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 183 184 185WATCHES AND WARNINGS 186-------------------- 187CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 188 189The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for 190Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy. 191 192SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 193 194A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 195* Montserrat 196* Antigua and Barbuda 197* St. Kitts and Nevis 198* Anguilla 199* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten 200* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy 201 202A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 203possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 204 205For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 206products issued by your national meteorological service. 207 208 209DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 210------------------------------ 211At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 212located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.0 West. Erika is 213moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a 214west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is 215expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the 216center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night 217and early Thursday. 218 219Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 220gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 221hours. 222 223Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) 224from the center. 225 226The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). 227 228 229HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 230---------------------- 231WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch 232area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. 233 234 235NEXT ADVISORY 236------------- 237Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. 238Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. 239 240$$ 241Forecaster Pasch 242 243 244 245------------=_1440514087-56330-2763 246Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 247Content-Disposition: inline 248Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 249 250= = = == = = 251WTNT35 KNHC 251730 252TCPAT5 253 254BULLETIN 255TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A 256NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 257200 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 258 259...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... 260 261 262SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 263---------------------------------------------- 264LOCATION...15.3N 51.8W 265ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 266MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 267PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H 268MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 269 270 271WATCHES AND WARNINGS 272-------------------- 273CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 274 275None. 276 277SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 278 279A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 280* Montserrat 281* Antigua and Barbuda 282* St. Kitts and Nevis 283* Anguilla 284* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten 285* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy 286 287A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 288possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 289 290For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 291products issued by your national meteorological service. 292 293 294DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 295------------------------------ 296At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 297located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 51.8 West. Erika is 298moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west- 299northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is 300expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the 301center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night 302and early Thursday. 303 304Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 305gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 306hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to 307investigate Erika later this afternoon. 308 309Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) 310from the center. 311 312The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). 313 314 315HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 316---------------------- 317WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch 318area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. 319 320 321NEXT ADVISORY 322------------- 323Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. 324 325$$ 326Forecaster Pasch 327 328 329 330------------=_1440532352-56330-2879 331Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 332Content-Disposition: inline 333Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 334 335= = = == = = 336WTNT35 KNHC 252045 337TCPAT5 338 339BULLETIN 340TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 341NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 342500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 343 344...ERIKA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS 345TOMORROW NIGHT... 346 347 348SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 349---------------------------------------------- 350LOCATION...15.6N 52.8W 351ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF ANTIGUA 352MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 353PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H 354MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES 355 356 357WATCHES AND WARNINGS 358-------------------- 359CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 360 361None. 362 363SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 364 365A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 366* Montserrat 367* Antigua and Barbuda 368* St. Kitts and Nevis 369* Anguilla 370* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten 371* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy 372 373A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 374possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 375 376For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 377products issued by your national meteorological service. 378 379 380DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 381------------------------------ 382At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 383located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 52.8 West. Erika is 384moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west- 385northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is 386expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the 387center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night 388and early Thursday. 389 390Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 391Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. 392 393Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) 394from the center. 395 396The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane 397Hunter aircraft was 1004 mb (29.65 inches). 398 399 400HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 401---------------------- 402WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch 403area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. 404 405RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4062 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. 407 408 409NEXT ADVISORY 410------------- 411Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. 412Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. 413 414$$ 415Forecaster Pasch 416 417 418 419------------=_1440535581-56330-2915 420Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 421Content-Disposition: inline 422Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 423 424= = = == = = 425WTNT35 KNHC 252336 426TCPAT5 427 428BULLETIN 429TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A 430NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 431800 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 432 433...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND ERIKA POORLY ORGANIZED... 434 435 436SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 437---------------------------------------------- 438LOCATION...15.8N 53.6W 439ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM E OF ANTIGUA 440MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 441PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H 442MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 443 444 445WATCHES AND WARNINGS 446-------------------- 447CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 448 449None. 450 451SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 452 453A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 454* Montserrat 455* Antigua and Barbuda 456* St. Kitts and Nevis 457* Anguilla 458* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten 459* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy 460 461A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 462possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 463 464For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 465products issued by your national meteorological service. 466 467 468DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 469------------------------------ 470At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 471located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 53.6 West. Erika is 472moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west- 473northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is 474expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the 475center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night 476and early Thursday. 477 478Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 479gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 480hours. 481 482Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) 483to the east of the center. 484 485The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force 486Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches). 487 488 489HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 490---------------------- 491WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch 492area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. 493 494RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4952 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. 496 497 498NEXT ADVISORY 499------------- 500Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. 501 502$$ 503Forecaster Avila 504 505 506 507------------=_1440545790-56330-3021 508Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 509Content-Disposition: inline 510Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 511 512= = = == = = 513WTNT35 KNHC 260253 514TCPAT5 515 516BULLETIN 517TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 518NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 5191100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 520 521...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... 522 523 524SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 525----------------------------------------------- 526LOCATION...16.0N 54.4W 527ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM E OF ANTIGUA 528MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 529PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H 530MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 531 532 533WATCHES AND WARNINGS 534-------------------- 535CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 536 537A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and 538the U.S Virgin Islands. 539 540The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical 541Storm Warning for Anguilla and a Tropical Storm Watch for the 542British Virgin Islands. 543 544The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm 545Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. 546 547The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a 548Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten. 549 550SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 551 552A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 553* Anguilla 554* Saba, St. Eustatius 555* St. Maarten 556 557A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 558* Montserrat 559* Antigua and Barbuda 560* St. Kitts and Nevis 561* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy 562* Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands 563* British Virgin Islands 564 565A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 566expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. 567 568A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 569possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 570 571For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 572products issued by your national meteorological service. 573 574 575DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 576------------------------------ 577At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 578located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 54.4 West. Erika is 579moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to 580west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is 581expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center 582of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early 583Thursday. 584 585Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 586gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during 587the next 48 hours. 588 589Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 590to the north and east of the center. 591 592The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). 593 594 595HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 596---------------------- 597WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning 598area by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible 599within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. 600 601RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6022 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. 603 604 605NEXT ADVISORY 606------------- 607Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. 608Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. 609 610$$ 611Forecaster Avila 612 613 614 615------------=_1440557642-56330-3090 616Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 617Content-Disposition: inline 618Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 619 620= = = == = = 621WTNT35 KNHC 260536 622TCPAT5 623 624BULLETIN 625TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A 626NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 627200 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015 628 629...ERIKA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... 630 631 632SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 633---------------------------------------------- 634LOCATION...16.0N 55.2W 635ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF ANTIGUA 636MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 637PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H 638MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 639 640 641WATCHES AND WARNINGS 642-------------------- 643CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 644 645None 646 647SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 648 649A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 650* Anguilla 651* Saba and St. Eustatius 652* St. Maarten 653 654A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 655* Montserrat 656* Antigua and Barbuda 657* St. Kitts and Nevis 658* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy 659* Puerto Rico 660* U.S. Virgin Islands 661* British Virgin Islands 662 663A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 664expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. 665 666A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 667possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 668 669For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 670products issued by your national meteorological service. 671 672 673DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 674------------------------------ 675At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 676located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 55.2 West. Erika is 677moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to 678west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is 679expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center 680of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands tonight and early 681Thursday. 682 683Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 684No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 685hours. 686 687Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 688to the north and east of the center. 689 690The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). 691 692 693HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 694---------------------- 695WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning 696area by late today, and tropical storm conditions are possible 697within the watch area by tonight or early Thursday. 698 699RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 7002 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. 701 702 703NEXT ADVISORY 704------------- 705Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. 706 707$$ 708Forecaster Brennan 709 710 711 712------------=_1440567388-56330-3131 713Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 714Content-Disposition: inline 715Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 716 717= = = == = = 718WTNT35 KNHC 260838 719TCPAT5 720 721BULLETIN 722TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 723NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 724500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015 725 726...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...THE 727VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... 728 729 730SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 731---------------------------------------------- 732LOCATION...16.1N 56.0W 733ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM E OF ANTIGUA 734MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 735PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H 736MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 737 738 739WATCHES AND WARNINGS 740-------------------- 741CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 742 743A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin 744Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. 745 746The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm 747Warning for Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, 748and the British Virgin Islands. 749 750SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 751 752A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 753* Anguilla 754* Saba and St. Eustatius 755* St. Maarten 756* Montserrat 757* Antigua and Barbuda 758* St. Kitts and Nevis 759* Puerto Rico 760* Vieques 761* Culebra 762* U.S. Virgin Islands 763* British Virgin Islands 764 765A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 766* Guadeloupe 767* St. Martin 768* St. Barthelemy 769 770A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 771expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. 772 773A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 774possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 775 776For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 777products issued by your national meteorological service. 778 779 780DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 781------------------------------ 782At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 783located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 56.0 West. Erika is 784moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to 785west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is 786expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center 787of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands 788tonight and move near the Virgin Islands on Thursday. 789 790Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 791Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. 792 793Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 794from the center. 795 796The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA 797Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). 798 799 800HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 801---------------------- 802WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 803warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin 804Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are 805possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. 806 807RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8082 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of 809the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through 810Friday morning. 811 812 813NEXT ADVISORY 814------------- 815Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. 816Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. 817 818$$ 819Forecaster Brennan 820 821 822 823------------=_1440578338-56330-3185 824Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 825Content-Disposition: inline 826Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 827 828= = = == = = 829WTNT35 KNHC 261153 830TCPAT5 831 832BULLETIN 833TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A 834NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 835800 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015 836 837...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERIKA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... 838 839 840SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 841---------------------------------------------- 842LOCATION...16.2N 56.8W 843ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF ANTIGUA 844MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 845PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H 846MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES 847 848 849WATCHES AND WARNINGS 850-------------------- 851CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 852 853None. 854 855SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 856 857A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 858* Anguilla 859* Saba and St. Eustatius 860* St. Maarten 861* Montserrat 862* Antigua and Barbuda 863* St. Kitts and Nevis 864* Puerto Rico 865* Vieques 866* Culebra 867* U.S. Virgin Islands 868* British Virgin Islands 869 870A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 871* Guadeloupe 872* St. Martin 873* St. Barthelemy 874 875A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 876expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 877hours. 878 879A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 880possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 881 882For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 883including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 884products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 885office. For storm information specific to your area outside the 886United States, please monitor products issued by your national 887meteorological service. 888 889 890DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 891------------------------------ 892At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 893located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 56.8 West. Erika is 894moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to 895west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. 896On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over 897portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and move near the 898Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. 899 900Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 901that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph 902(75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast 903during the next 48 hours. 904 905Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 906primarily to the east of the center. 907 908The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve 909Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). 910 911 912HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 913---------------------- 914WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 915warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin 916Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are 917possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. 918 919RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 9202 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of 921the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through 922Friday morning. 923 924 925NEXT ADVISORY 926------------- 927Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. 928 929$$ 930Forecaster Brown 931 932 933 934------------=_1440590042-56330-3245 935Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 936Content-Disposition: inline 937Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 938 939= = = == = = 940WTNT35 KNHC 261446 941TCPAT5 942 943BULLETIN 944TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 945NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 9461100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015 947 948...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... 949 950 951SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 952----------------------------------------------- 953LOCATION...16.1N 57.6W 954ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA 955MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 956PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H 957MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES 958 959 960WATCHES AND WARNINGS 961-------------------- 962CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 963 964The government of France has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a 965Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. 966 967SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 968 969A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 970* Anguilla 971* Saba and St. Eustatius 972* St. Maarten 973* St. Martin 974* St. Barthelemy 975* Montserrat 976* Antigua and Barbuda 977* St. Kitts and Nevis 978* Puerto Rico 979* Vieques 980* Culebra 981* U.S. Virgin Islands 982* British Virgin Islands 983 984A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 985* Guadeloupe 986 987A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 988expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 989hours. 990 991A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 992possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 993 994Interests in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of 995Erika. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of the 996Dominican Republic later today. 997 998For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 999including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 1000products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 1001office. For storm information specific to your area outside the 1002United States, please monitor products issued by your national 1003meteorological service. 1004 1005 1006DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1007------------------------------ 1008At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 1009located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.6 West. Erika is 1010moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to 1011west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. 1012On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over 1013portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin 1014Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of 1015north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. 1016 1017Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 1018Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. 1019 1020Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 1021primarily to the east of the center. 1022 1023The latest minimum central pressure reported from an Air Force 1024Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1005 mb (29.68 inches). 1025 1026 1027HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1028---------------------- 1029WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 1030warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin 1031Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are 1032possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical 1033storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic on 1034Friday. 1035 1036RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10373 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of 1038the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through 1039Friday morning. 1040 1041 1042NEXT ADVISORY 1043------------- 1044Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. 1045Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. 1046 1047$$ 1048Forecaster Brown 1049 1050 1051 1052------------=_1440600498-56330-3338 1053Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1054Content-Disposition: inline 1055Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1056 1057= = = == = = 1058WTNT35 KNHC 261745 1059TCPAT5 1060 1061BULLETIN 1062TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A 1063NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1064200 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 1065 1066...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD... 1067...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE 1068THE STORM... 1069 1070 1071SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 1072---------------------------------------------- 1073LOCATION...16.3N 58.2W 1074ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA 1075MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 1076PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H 1077MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES 1078 1079 1080WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1081-------------------- 1082CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1083 1084None 1085 1086SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1087 1088A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1089* Anguilla 1090* Saba and St. Eustatius 1091* St. Maarten 1092* St. Martin 1093* St. Barthelemy 1094* Montserrat 1095* Antigua and Barbuda 1096* St. Kitts and Nevis 1097* Puerto Rico 1098* Vieques 1099* Culebra 1100* U.S. Virgin Islands 1101* British Virgin Islands 1102 1103A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 1104* Guadeloupe 1105 1106A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 1107expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 1108hours. 1109 1110A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 1111possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 1112 1113Interests in the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and 1114the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Erika. 1115A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of the 1116Dominican Republic later today. 1117 1118For storm information specific to your area in the United 1119States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please 1120monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service 1121forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside 1122the United States, please monitor products issued by your national 1123meteorological service. 1124 1125 1126DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1127------------------------------ 1128At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 1129located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 58.2 West. Erika is 1130moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to 1131west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. 1132On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over 1133portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin 1134Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of 1135the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. 1136 1137Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 1138Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. 1139 1140Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 1141primarily to the east of the center. 1142 1143The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). 1144 1145 1146HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1147---------------------- 1148WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 1149warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin 1150Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are 1151possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical 1152storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic on 1153Friday. 1154 1155RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 11563 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of 1157the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through 1158Friday morning. 1159 1160 1161NEXT ADVISORY 1162------------- 1163Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. 1164 1165$$ 1166Forecaster Brown 1167 1168 1169 1170------------=_1440611131-56330-3426 1171Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1172Content-Disposition: inline 1173Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1174 1175= = = == = = 1176WTNT35 KNHC 262050 1177TCPAT5 1178 1179BULLETIN 1180TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 1181NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1182500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 1183 1184...ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... 1185 1186 1187SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 1188---------------------------------------------- 1189LOCATION...16.6N 58.9W 1190ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF ANTIGUA 1191MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 1192PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H 1193MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES 1194 1195 1196WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1197-------------------- 1198CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1199 1200The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical 1201Storm Watch for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo 1202Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo. 1203 1204The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for 1205the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. 1206 1207SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1208 1209A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1210* Anguilla 1211* Saba and St. Eustatius 1212* St. Maarten 1213* St. Martin 1214* St. Barthelemy 1215* Montserrat 1216* Antigua and Barbuda 1217* St. Kitts and Nevis 1218* Puerto Rico 1219* Vieques 1220* Culebra 1221* U.S. Virgin Islands 1222* British Virgin Islands 1223 1224A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 1225* Guadeloupe 1226* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo 1227Frances Viejo 1228* Southeastern Bahamas 1229* Turks and Caicos Islands 1230 1231A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 1232possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 1233 1234Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the 1235progress of Erika. 1236 1237For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 1238including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 1239products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 1240office. For storm information specific to your area outside the 1241United States, please monitor products issued by your national 1242meteorological service. 1243 1244 1245DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1246------------------------------ 1247At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 1248located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is 1249moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward 1250motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 125148 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near 1252or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the 1253Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just 1254north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. 1255 1256Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 1257Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. 1258 1259Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 1260primarily to the east of the center. 1261 1262The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a 1263NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). 1264 1265 1266HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1267---------------------- 1268WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 1269warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin 1270Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are 1271possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early 1272Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the 1273Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos 1274Islands on Friday. 1275 1276RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12773 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of 1278the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the 1279Dominican Republic through Friday. 1280 1281 1282NEXT ADVISORY 1283------------- 1284Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. 1285Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. 1286 1287$$ 1288Forecaster Brown 1289 1290 1291 1292------------=_1440622242-56330-3548 1293Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1294Content-Disposition: inline 1295Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1296 1297= = = == = = 1298WTNT35 KNHC 262338 1299TCPAT5 1300 1301BULLETIN 1302TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A 1303NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1304800 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 1305 1306...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD 1307ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... 1308 1309 1310SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 1311---------------------------------------------- 1312LOCATION...16.7N 59.5W 1313ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ANTIGUA 1314MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 1315PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H 1316MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 1317 1318 1319WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1320-------------------- 1321CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1322 1323None. 1324 1325SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1326 1327A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1328* Anguilla 1329* Saba and St. Eustatius 1330* St. Maarten 1331* St. Martin 1332* St. Barthelemy 1333* Montserrat 1334* Antigua and Barbuda 1335* St. Kitts and Nevis 1336* Puerto Rico 1337* Vieques 1338* Culebra 1339* U.S. Virgin Islands 1340* British Virgin Islands 1341 1342A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 1343* Guadeloupe 1344* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo 1345Frances Viejo 1346* Southeastern Bahamas 1347* Turks and Caicos Islands 1348 1349A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 1350possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 1351 1352Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the 1353progress of Erika. 1354 1355For storm information specific to your area in the United 1356States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please 1357monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service 1358forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside 1359the United States, please monitor products issued by your national 1360meteorological service. 1361 1362 1363DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1364------------------------------ 1365At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 1366located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 59.5 West. Erika is 1367moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward 1368motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 136948 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near 1370or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the 1371Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just 1372north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. 1373 1374Both NOAA and Air Force planes are currently investigating Erika, 1375and the maximum sustained winds are still likely to be near 45 mph 1376(75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy 1377squalls to the southeast of the center. Little change in strength or 1378perhaps some slight weakening could occur during the next 48 hours. 1379 1380Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 1381to the east of the center. 1382 1383The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force 1384Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches). 1385 1386 1387HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1388---------------------- 1389WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 1390warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin 1391Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are 1392possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early 1393Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the 1394Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos 1395Islands on Friday. 1396 1397RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 13983 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of 1399the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the 1400Dominican Republic through Friday. 1401 1402 1403NEXT ADVISORY 1404------------- 1405Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. 1406 1407$$ 1408Forecaster Avila 1409 1410 1411 1412------------=_1440632347-56330-3644 1413Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1414Content-Disposition: inline 1415Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1416 1417= = = == = = 1418WTNT35 KNHC 270244 1419TCPAT5 1420 1421BULLETIN 1422TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 1423NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 14241100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 1425 1426...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS OF 1427THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY... 1428 1429 1430SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 1431----------------------------------------------- 1432LOCATION...16.7N 60.2W 1433ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA 1434MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 1435PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H 1436MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 1437 1438 1439WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1440-------------------- 1441CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1442 1443None. 1444 1445SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1446 1447A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1448* Anguilla 1449* Saba and St. Eustatius 1450* St. Maarten 1451* St. Martin 1452* St. Barthelemy 1453* Montserrat 1454* Antigua and Barbuda 1455* St. Kitts and Nevisis 1456* Puerto Rico 1457* Vieques 1458* Culebra 1459* U.S. Virgin Islands 1460* British Virgin Islands 1461 1462A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 1463* Guadeloupe 1464* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo 1465Frances Viejo 1466* Southeastern Bahamas 1467* Turks and Caicos Islands 1468 1469A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 1470possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 1471 1472Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the 1473progress of Erika. 1474 1475For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 1476including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 1477products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 1478office. For storm information specific to your area outside the 1479United States, please monitor products issued by your national 1480meteorological service. 1481 1482 1483DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1484------------------------------ 1485At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 1486located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 60.2 West. Erika is 1487moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west to 1488west-northwest motion with the same forward speed is expected over 1489the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will 1490move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands early Thursday, 1491and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later on 1492Thursday, and be near or just north of the north coast of the 1493Dominican Republic on Friday. 1494 1495Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 1496gusts. These winds are confined to heavy squalls to the north and 1497east of the center. No significant change in strength or perhaps 1498some slight weakening is anticipated during the next 48 hours. 1499 1500Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 1501from the center. 1502 1503The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force 1504Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches). 1505 1506 1507HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1508---------------------- 1509WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 1510warning area in the Leeward Islands early Thursday, and reach the 1511Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later on Thursday. Tropical storm 1512conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands 1513tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach 1514portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and 1515Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday. 1516 1517RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15183 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of 1519the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the 1520Dominican Republic through Friday. 1521 1522 1523NEXT ADVISORY 1524------------- 1525Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. 1526Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. 1527 1528$$ 1529Forecaster Avila 1530 1531 1532 1533------------=_1440643472-56330-3709 1534Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1535Content-Disposition: inline 1536Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1537 1538= = = == = = 1539WTNT35 KNHC 270548 1540TCPAT5 1541 1542BULLETIN 1543TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A 1544NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1545200 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 1546 1547...ERIKA NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... 1548 1549 1550SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION 1551---------------------------------------------- 1552LOCATION...16.8N 60.8W 1553ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF GUADELOUPE 1554ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA 1555MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 1556PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H 1557MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 1558 1559 1560WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1561-------------------- 1562CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1563 1564None. 1565 1566SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1567 1568A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1569* Anguilla 1570* Saba and St. Eustatius 1571* St. Maarten 1572* St. Martin 1573* St. Barthelemy 1574* Montserrat 1575* Antigua and Barbuda 1576* St. Kitts and Nevisis 1577* Puerto Rico 1578* Vieques 1579* Culebra 1580* U.S. Virgin Islands 1581* British Virgin Islands 1582 1583A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 1584* Guadeloupe 1585* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo 1586Frances Viejo 1587* Southeastern Bahamas 1588* Turks and Caicos Islands 1589 1590A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 1591possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 1592 1593Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the 1594progress of Erika. 1595 1596For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 1597including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 1598products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 1599office. For storm information specific to your area outside the 1600United States, please monitor products issued by your national 1601meteorological service. 1602 1603 1604DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1605------------------------------ 1606At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 1607located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 60.8 West. Erika is 1608moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west to west- 1609northwest motion with the same forward speed is expected over the 1610next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move 1611near or over portions of the Leeward Islands during the next few 1612hours, move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and 1613be near or just north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic 1614on Friday. 1615 1616Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 1617gusts. These winds are confined to heavy squalls to the north and 1618east of the center. No significant change in strength is anticipated 1619during the next 48 hours. 1620 1621Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 1622from the center. 1623 1624The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). 1625 1626 1627HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1628---------------------- 1629WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 1630warning area in the Leeward Islands in the next few hours, and reach 1631the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. Tropical storm 1632conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands 1633during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions could reach 1634portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and 1635Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday. 1636 1637RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 16383 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of 1639the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the 1640Dominican Republic through Friday. 1641 1642 1643NEXT ADVISORY 1644------------- 1645Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. 1646 1647$$ 1648Forecaster Brennan 1649 1650 1651 1652------------=_1440654552-56330-3776 1653Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1654Content-Disposition: inline 1655Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1656 1657= = = == = = 1658WTNT35 KNHC 270850 1659TCPAT5 1660 1661BULLETIN 1662TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 1663NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1664500 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 1665 1666...ERIKA A LITTLE STRONGER...CENTER PASSING BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND 1667ANTIGUA... 1668 1669 1670SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 1671---------------------------------------------- 1672LOCATION...16.8N 61.5W 1673ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF GUADELOUPE 1674ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF ANTIGUA 1675MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 1676PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H 1677MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES 1678 1679 1680WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1681-------------------- 1682CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1683 1684None. 1685 1686SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1687 1688A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1689* Anguilla 1690* Saba and St. Eustatius 1691* St. Maarten 1692* St. Martin 1693* St. Barthelemy 1694* Montserrat 1695* Antigua and Barbuda 1696* St. Kitts and Nevisis 1697* Puerto Rico 1698* Vieques 1699* Culebra 1700* U.S. Virgin Islands 1701* British Virgin Islands 1702 1703A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 1704* Guadeloupe 1705* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo 1706Frances Viejo 1707* Southeastern Bahamas 1708* Turks and Caicos Islands 1709 1710A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 1711possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 1712 1713Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the 1714progress of Erika. 1715 1716For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 1717including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 1718products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 1719office. For storm information specific to your area outside the 1720United States, please monitor products issued by your national 1721meteorological service. 1722 1723 1724DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1725------------------------------ 1726At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 1727located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 61.5 West. Erika is 1728moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the 1729west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion 1730should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the 1731center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward 1732Islands this morning, move near the Virgin Islands later today, 1733move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the 1734north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. 1735 1736Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with 1737higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 173848 hours. 1739 1740Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), 1741mainly to the north and east of the center. 1742 1743The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA 1744Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). 1745 1746 1747HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1748---------------------- 1749WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the 1750warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning, and reach the 1751Virgin Islands later today and Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm 1752conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands 1753this morning. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the 1754watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday and the southeastern 1755Bahamas, and Turks and the Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday 1756night. 1757 1758RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 17593 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of 1760the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican 1761Republic, the Turk and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas 1762through Saturday. 1763 1764 1765NEXT ADVISORY 1766------------- 1767Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. 1768Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. 1769 1770$$ 1771Forecaster Brennan 1772 1773 1774 1775------------=_1440665463-56330-3838 1776Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1777Content-Disposition: inline 1778Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1779 1780= = = == = = 1781WTNT35 KNHC 271159 1782TCPAT5 1783 1784BULLETIN 1785TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A 1786NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1787800 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 1788 1789...ERIKA IS POORLY ORGANIZED... 1790 1791 1792SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 1793---------------------------------------------- 1794LOCATION...16.5N 62.7W 1795ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM W OF GUADELOUPE 1796MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 1797PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H 1798MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES 1799 1800 1801WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1802-------------------- 1803CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1804 1805None. 1806 1807SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1808 1809A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1810* Anguilla 1811* Saba and St. Eustatius 1812* St. Maarten 1813* St. Martin 1814* St. Barthelemy 1815* Montserrat 1816* Antigua and Barbuda 1817* St. Kitts and Nevis 1818* Puerto Rico 1819* Vieques 1820* Culebra 1821* U.S. Virgin Islands 1822* British Virgin Islands 1823 1824A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 1825* Guadeloupe 1826* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo 1827 Frances Viejo 1828* Southeastern Bahamas 1829* Turks and Caicos Islands 1830 1831A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 1832possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 1833 1834Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the 1835progress of Erika. 1836 1837For storm information specific to your area in the United 1838States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please 1839monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service 1840forecast office. For storm information specific to your area 1841outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your 1842national meteorological service. 1843 1844 1845DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1846------------------------------ 1847At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 1848estimated near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 62.7 West. Erika is 1849moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the 1850west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion 1851should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the 1852center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, 1853move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the 1854north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. 1855 1856Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 1857Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. 1858 1859Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), 1860mainly to the north and east of the center. 1861 1862The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 1863Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). 1864 1865 1866HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1867---------------------- 1868WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over 1869portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning, 1870and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto Rico tonight. 1871Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the 1872Leeward Islands this morning. Tropical storm conditions could reach 1873portions of the watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday and 1874the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and the Caicos Islands late 1875Friday and Friday night. 1876 1877RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 18783 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of 1879the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican 1880Republic, the Turk and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas 1881through Saturday. 1882 1883 1884NEXT ADVISORY 1885------------- 1886Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. 1887 1888$$ 1889Forecaster Pasch 1890 1891 1892 1893------------=_1440676804-56330-3905 1894Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1895Content-Disposition: inline 1896Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1897 1898= = = == = = 1899WTNT35 KNHC 271457 1900TCPAT5 1901 1902BULLETIN 1903TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 1904NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 19051100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 1906 1907...ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... 1908 1909 1910SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION 1911----------------------------------------------- 1912LOCATION...16.4N 63.3W 1913ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF GUADELOUPE 1914MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 1915PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H 1916MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 1917 1918 1919WATCHES AND WARNINGS 1920-------------------- 1921CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 1922 1923The government of the Dominican Republic has extended the 1924Tropical Storm Watch westward along the north coast of the 1925Dominican Republic to the border of Haiti. 1926 1927SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 1928 1929A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 1930* Anguilla 1931* Saba and St. Eustatius 1932* St. Maarten 1933* St. Martin 1934* St. Barthelemy 1935* Montserrat 1936* Antigua and Barbuda 1937* St. Kitts and Nevis 1938* Puerto Rico 1939* Vieques 1940* Culebra 1941* U.S. Virgin Islands 1942* British Virgin Islands 1943 1944A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 1945* Guadeloupe 1946* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the 1947 border of Haiti 1948* Southeastern Bahamas 1949* Turks and Caicos Islands 1950 1951A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 1952possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 1953 1954Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the 1955progress of Erika. 1956 1957For storm information specific to your area in the United 1958States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please 1959monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service 1960forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside 1961the United States, please monitor products issued by your national 1962meteorological service. 1963 1964 1965DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 1966------------------------------ 1967At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 1968located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 63.3 West. Erika is 1969moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the 1970west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion 1971should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the 1972center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, 1973move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the 1974north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. 1975 1976Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 1977Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. 1978 1979Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 1980from the center. 1981 1982The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). 1983 1984 1985HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 1986---------------------- 1987WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over 1988portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands through early 1989this afternoon, and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto 1990Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch 1991area in the Leeward Islands through early this afternoon. Tropical 1992storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the 1993Dominican Republic on Friday and the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks 1994and the Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night. 1995 1996RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 1997of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across 1998portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, 1999the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the 2000southeast Bahamas through Saturday. Dominica reported nearly 9 2001inches of rainfall overnight, with significant flooding occurring 2002on the island. 2003 2004 2005NEXT ADVISORY 2006------------- 2007Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. 2008Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. 2009 2010$$ 2011Forecaster Pasch 2012 2013 2014 2015------------=_1440687463-56330-3992 2016Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2017Content-Disposition: inline 2018Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2019 2020= = = == = = 2021WTNT35 KNHC 271733 2022TCPAT5 2023 2024BULLETIN 2025TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A 2026NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2027200 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 2028 2029...ERIKA SLIGHTLY WEAKER... 2030 2031 2032SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 2033---------------------------------------------- 2034LOCATION...16.5N 63.8W 2035ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF GUADELOUPE 2036MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 2037PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H 2038MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 2039 2040 2041WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2042-------------------- 2043CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2044 2045The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical 2046Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda. 2047 2048The government of the Dominican Republic has extended the Tropical 2049Storm Watch southward to Isla Saona. 2050 2051SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2052 2053A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2054* Anguilla 2055* Saba and St. Eustatius 2056* St. Maarten 2057* St. Martin 2058* St. Barthelemy 2059* Montserrat 2060* St. Kitts and Nevis 2061* Puerto Rico 2062* Vieques 2063* Culebra 2064* U.S. Virgin Islands 2065* British Virgin Islands 2066 2067A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 2068* Guadeloupe 2069* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward 2070 and southward to Isla Saona 2071* Southeastern Bahamas 2072* Turks and Caicos Islands 2073 2074A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 2075possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 2076 2077Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the 2078progress of Erika. 2079 2080For storm information specific to your area in the United 2081States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please 2082monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service 2083forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside 2084the United States, please monitor products issued by your national 2085meteorological service. 2086 2087 2088DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2089------------------------------ 2090At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 2091located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Erika is 2092moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the 2093west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion 2094should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the 2095center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, 2096move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the 2097Dominican Republic on Friday. 2098 2099Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 2100higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 210148 hours. 2102 2103Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 2104to the east of the center. 2105 2106The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). 2107 2108 2109HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2110---------------------- 2111WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over 2112portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands for the next 2113few hours, and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto 2114Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch 2115area in the Leeward Islands through early this afternoon. Tropical 2116storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the 2117Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks 2118and Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night. 2119 2120RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2121of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across 2122portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, 2123the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the 2124southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. 2125 2126 2127NEXT ADVISORY 2128------------- 2129Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. 2130 2131$$ 2132Forecaster Pasch 2133 2134 2135 2136------------=_1440696820-56330-4067 2137Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2138Content-Disposition: inline 2139Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2140 2141= = = == = = 2142WTNT35 KNHC 272036 2143TCPAT5 2144 2145BULLETIN 2146TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 2147NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2148500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 2149 2150...ERIKA PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD 2151ISLANDS... 2152 2153 2154SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 2155---------------------------------------------- 2156LOCATION...16.6N 64.0W 2157ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF GUADELOUPE 2158MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 2159PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H 2160MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES 2161 2162 2163WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2164-------------------- 2165CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2166 2167The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical 2168Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic 2169from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla 2170Saona. 2171 2172SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2173 2174A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2175* Anguilla 2176* Saba and St. Eustatius 2177* St. Maarten 2178* St. Martin 2179* St. Barthelemy 2180* Montserrat 2181* St. Kitts and Nevis 2182* Puerto Rico 2183* Vieques 2184* Culebra 2185* U.S. Virgin Islands 2186* British Virgin Islands 2187* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward 2188and southward to Isla Saona 2189 2190A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 2191* Guadeloupe 2192* Southeastern Bahamas 2193* Turks and Caicos Islands 2194 2195Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should 2196monitor the progress of Erika. 2197 2198For storm information specific to your area in the United 2199States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please 2200monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service 2201forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside 2202the United States, please monitor products issued by your national 2203meteorological service. 2204 2205 2206DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2207------------------------------ 2208At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 2209located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.0 West. Erika is 2210moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this 2211general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On 2212the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin 2213Islands this evening, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and 2214move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. 2215 2216Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 2217No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 2218hours. 2219 2220Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 2221from the center. 2222 2223The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). 2224 2225 2226HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2227---------------------- 2228WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over 2229portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands for the next 2230few hours, and reach the Virgin Islands this evening and Puerto 2231Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch 2232area in the Leeward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical 2233storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the 2234Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks 2235and Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night. 2236 2237RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2238of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across 2239portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, 2240the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the 2241southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause 2242life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 2243 2244 2245NEXT ADVISORY 2246------------- 2247Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. 2248Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. 2249 2250$$ 2251Forecaster Pasch 2252 2253 2254 2255------------=_1440707837-56330-4151 2256Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2257Content-Disposition: inline 2258Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2259 2260= = = == = = 2261WTNT35 KNHC 281737 2262TCPAT5 2263 2264BULLETIN 2265TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A 2266NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2267200 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 2268 2269...ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN 2270REPUBLIC... 2271 2272 2273SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION 2274---------------------------------------------- 2275LOCATION...17.7N 70.2W 2276ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 2277ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND 2278MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 2279PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H 2280MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES 2281 2282 2283WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2284-------------------- 2285CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2286 2287The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico, 2288Vieques, and Culebra. 2289 2290SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2291 2292A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2293* Dominican Republic 2294* Haiti 2295* Southeastern Bahamas 2296* Turks and Caicos Islands 2297* Central Bahamas 2298 2299A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 2300* Northwestern Bahamas 2301* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, 2302Holguin, and Guantanamo 2303 2304A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 2305expected somewhere within the warning area. 2306 2307A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 2308possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 2309 2310Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the 2311southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the 2312progress of Erika. 2313 2314For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 2315including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 2316products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 2317office. For storm information specific to your area outside the 2318United States, please monitor products issued by your national 2319meteorological service. 2320 2321 2322DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2323------------------------------ 2324At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 2325located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has 2326been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several 2327hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being 2328later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. On 2329the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican 2330Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks 2331and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and 2332northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night. 2333 2334Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher 2335gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as 2336Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through 2337Saturday night. 2338 2339Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) 2340to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the 2341Dominican Republic has been reporting wind gusts of 40 mph (64 km/h) 2342for the past few hours. 2343 2344The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data 2345and surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). 2346 2347 2348HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2349---------------------- 2350WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across 2351portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are 2352expected to spread across Haiti this afternoon, the Turks and Caicos 2353Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later this afternoon and 2354tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm 2355conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday 2356night. 2357 2358RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2359of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across 2360portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos 2361Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. 2362An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These 2363rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 2364 2365 2366NEXT ADVISORY 2367------------- 2368Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. 2369 2370$$ 2371Forecaster Beven 2372 2373 2374 2375------------=_1440783463-56330-4304 2376Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2377Content-Disposition: inline 2378Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2379 2380= = = == = = 2381WTNT35 KNHC 282054 2382TCPAT5 2383 2384BULLETIN 2385TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 2386NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2387500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 2388 2389...ERIKA MOVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH HEAVY RAINS AND 2390GUSTY WINDS... 2391 2392 2393SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION 2394---------------------------------------------- 2395LOCATION...17.9N 71.2W 2396ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 2397ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND 2398MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H 2399PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H 2400MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES 2401 2402 2403WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2404-------------------- 2405CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2406 2407None. 2408 2409SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2410 2411A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2412* Dominican Republic 2413* Haiti 2414* Southeastern Bahamas 2415* Turks and Caicos Islands 2416* Central Bahamas 2417 2418A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 2419* Northwestern Bahamas 2420* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, 2421Holguin, and Guantanamo 2422 2423A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 2424expected somewhere within the warning area. 2425 2426A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 2427possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 2428 2429Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the 2430southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the 2431progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be 2432needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of 2433Hispaniola. 2434 2435For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 2436issued by your national meteorological service. 2437 2438 2439DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2440------------------------------ 2441At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 2442estimated near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 71.2 West. Erika is 2443moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the 2444west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with this motion 2445continuing with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday. On the 2446forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican 2447Republic and Haiti during the next several hours, and be near the 2448southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday. 2449 2450Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 2451Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Erika is 2452forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday. There is 2453a possibility that Erika could dissipate to a trough of low 2454pressure during or after its passage over Hispaniola. 2455 2456Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 2457to the east of the center. Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic 2458recently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). 2459 2460The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from 2461the Dominican Republic, is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). 2462 2463 2464HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2465---------------------- 2466WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across 2467portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are 2468expected to spread across Haiti this evening, the Turks and Caicos 2469Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this evening and tonight, and 2470the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are 2471possible over eastern Cuba on Saturday and in the northwestern 2472Bahamas by Saturday night. 2473 2474RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2475of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across 2476portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos 2477Islands, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas 2478through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for 2479Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods 2480and mud slides. 2481 2482 2483NEXT ADVISORY 2484------------- 2485Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. 2486Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. 2487 2488$$ 2489Forecaster Beven 2490 2491 2492 2493------------=_1440795290-56330-4386 2494Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2495Content-Disposition: inline 2496Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2497 2498= = = == = = 2499WTNT35 KNHC 282339 2500TCPAT5 2501 2502BULLETIN 2503TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A 2504NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2505800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 2506 2507...ERIKA DUMPING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA... 2508 2509 2510SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 2511---------------------------------------------- 2512LOCATION...18.3N 72.0 2513ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI 2514ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND 2515MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 2516PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H 2517MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES 2518 2519 2520WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2521-------------------- 2522CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2523 2524None. 2525 2526SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2527 2528A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2529* Dominican Republic 2530* Haiti 2531* Southeastern Bahamas 2532* Turks and Caicos Islands 2533* Central Bahamas 2534 2535A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 2536* Northwestern Bahamas 2537* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, 2538Holguin, and Guantanamo 2539 2540A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 2541expected somewhere within the warning area. 2542 2543A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 2544possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 2545 2546Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the 2547southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the 2548progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be 2549needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of 2550Hispaniola. 2551 2552For storm information specific to your area in the United 2553States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please 2554monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service 2555forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside 2556the United States, please monitor products issued by your national 2557meteorological service. 2558 2559 2560DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2561------------------------------ 2562The broad circulation of Erika is gradually moving inland over 2563Haiti, and at 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm 2564Erika was estimated near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 72.0 West. 2565Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn 2566toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with 2567this motion continuing with a decrease in forward speed through 2568Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over 2569western Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday, and will be 2570near extreme eastern Cuba or the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday 2571night. 2572 2573Maximum sustained winds are now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 2574Erika is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday, 2575but there is a good possibility that Erika could even degenerate 2576into a trough of low pressure while it is moving over the high 2577terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. 2578 2579Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 2580to the east of the center. Barahona in the western portion of the 2581Dominican Republic is reporting gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h). 2582 2583The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from 2584the Dominican Republic and Haiti, is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). 2585 2586 2587HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2588---------------------- 2589WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican 2590Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions are 2591expected to continue across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and 2592the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and the central Bahamas on 2593Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba 2594on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. 2595 2596RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2597of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across 2598portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos 2599Islands, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas 2600through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches are expected in 2601Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods 2602and mud slides. 2603 2604 2605NEXT ADVISORY 2606------------- 2607Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. 2608 2609$$ 2610Forecaster Avila 2611 2612 2613 2614------------=_1440805165-56330-4463 2615Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2616Content-Disposition: inline 2617Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2618 2619= = = == = = 2620WTNT35 KNHC 290011 2621TCPAT5 2622 2623BULLETIN 2624TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A 2625NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2626800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 2627 2628...ERIKA DUMPING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA... 2629 2630 2631SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION 2632---------------------------------------------- 2633LOCATION...18.3N 72.0W 2634ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI 2635ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND 2636MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 2637PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H 2638MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES 2639 2640 2641WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2642-------------------- 2643CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2644 2645None. 2646 2647SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2648 2649A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2650* Dominican Republic 2651* Haiti 2652* Southeastern Bahamas 2653* Turks and Caicos Islands 2654* Central Bahamas 2655 2656A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 2657* Northwestern Bahamas 2658* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, 2659Holguin, and Guantanamo 2660 2661A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 2662expected somewhere within the warning area. 2663 2664A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 2665possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 2666 2667Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the 2668southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the 2669progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be 2670needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of 2671Hispaniola. 2672 2673For storm information specific to your area in the United 2674States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please 2675monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service 2676forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside 2677the United States, please monitor products issued by your national 2678meteorological service. 2679 2680 2681DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2682------------------------------ 2683The broad circulation of Erika is gradually moving inland over 2684Haiti, and at 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm 2685Erika was estimated near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 72.0 West. 2686Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn 2687toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with 2688this motion continuing with a decrease in forward speed through 2689Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over 2690western Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday and will be near 2691the southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday afternoon. 2692 2693Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (85 km/h) with higher 2694gusts. Erika is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on 2695Saturday, but there is a good possibility that Erika could 2696even degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it is 2697moving over the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. 2698 2699Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 2700to the east of the center. Barahona in the western portion of 2701the Dominican Republic is reporting wind gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h). 2702 2703The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from 2704the Dominican Republic and Haiti, is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). 2705 2706 2707HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2708---------------------- 2709WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican 2710Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions are 2711expected to spread across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and 2712the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and the central Bahamas on 2713Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba 2714on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. 2715 2716RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2717of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across 2718portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos 2719Islands, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas 2720through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches are expected in 2721Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods 2722and mud slides. 2723 2724 2725NEXT ADVISORY 2726------------- 2727Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. 2728 2729$$ 2730Forecaster Avila 2731 2732 2733 2734------------=_1440807106-56330-4480 2735Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2736Content-Disposition: inline 2737Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2738 2739= = = == = = 2740WTNT35 KNHC 290247 2741TCPAT5 2742 2743BULLETIN 2744TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 2745NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 27461100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 2747 2748...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SOAK HISPANIOLA... 2749...HEADING FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... 2750 2751 2752SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION 2753----------------------------------------------- 2754LOCATION...18.5N 72.9W 2755ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI 2756ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA 2757MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H 2758PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H 2759MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES 2760 2761 2762WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2763-------------------- 2764CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2765 2766None. 2767 2768SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2769 2770A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2771* Dominican Republic 2772* Haiti 2773* Southeastern Bahamas 2774* Turks and Caicos Islands 2775* Central Bahamas 2776 2777A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 2778* Northwestern Bahamas 2779* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, 2780Holguin, and Guantanamo 2781 2782A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 2783expected somewhere within the warning area. 2784 2785A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 2786possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. 2787 2788Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the 2789southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the 2790progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be 2791needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of 2792Hispaniola. 2793 2794For storm information specific to your area in the United 2795States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please 2796monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service 2797forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside 2798the United States, please monitor products issued by your national 2799meteorological service. 2800 2801 2802DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2803------------------------------ 2804At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 2805estimated near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 72.9 West. Erika is 2806moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this 2807general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward 2808speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of 2809Erika will move over the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday and will be 2810near the southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday afternoon. 2811 2812Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 2813Weakening is forecast and Erika could become a tropical depression 2814on Saturday. There is a good possibility that Erika could even 2815degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it is moving over the 2816high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. 2817 2818Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 2819from the center. 2820 2821The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). 2822 2823 2824HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2825---------------------- 2826WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican 2827Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions are 2828spreading across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and 2829the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and the central Bahamas 2830on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern 2831Cuba on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. 2832 2833RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2834of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across 2835portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through 2836Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods 2837and mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also 2838expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the 2839Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central 2840Bahamas through Sunday. 2841 2842 2843NEXT ADVISORY 2844------------- 2845Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. 2846Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. 2847 2848$$ 2849Forecaster Avila 2850 2851 2852 2853------------=_1440816466-56330-4531 2854Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2855Content-Disposition: inline 2856Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2857 2858= = = == = = 2859WTNT35 KNHC 290854 2860TCPAT5 2861 2862BULLETIN 2863TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 2864NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2865500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 2866 2867...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN 2868HAITI... 2869 2870 2871SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION 2872---------------------------------------------- 2873LOCATION...19.1N 75.1W 2874ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA 2875MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2876PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H 2877MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES 2878 2879 2880WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2881-------------------- 2882CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2883 2884None. 2885 2886SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 2887 2888A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 2889* Dominican Republic 2890* Haiti 2891* Southeastern Bahamas 2892* Turks and Caicos Islands 2893* Central Bahamas 2894 2895A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 2896* Northwestern Bahamas 2897* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, 2898Holguin, and Guantanamo 2899 2900A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 2901expected somewhere within the warning area. 2902 2903A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 2904possible within the watch area. 2905 2906Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the 2907southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the 2908progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed 2909for these areas later today. 2910 2911For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 2912issued by your national meteorological service. 2913 2914 2915DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 2916------------------------------ 2917At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 2918located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 75.1 West. Erika is 2919moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this 2920general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn 2921toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on 2922Sunday. On the forecast track the center of Erika will move near 2923over portions of eastern Cuba later today and move across central 2924Cuba tonight. 2925 2926Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 2927Erika is expected to weaken to a tropical depression today as it 2928moves over land. It is also possible that Erika could degenerate 2929into a trough of low pressure today while it moves over the high 2930terrain of eastern Cuba. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 2931aircraft will be investigating Erika later this morning. 2932 2933Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 2934from the center. 2935 2936The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). 2937 2938 2939HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 2940---------------------- 2941RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 2942of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across 2943portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through 2944Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and 2945mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected 2946to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and 2947Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas 2948through Sunday. 2949 2950WIND: Tropical storm conditions across Haiti will gradually 2951subside this morning, and will continue in portions of the Turks 2952and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas for the next few 2953hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba 2954today. 2955 2956 2957NEXT ADVISORY 2958------------- 2959Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. 2960Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. 2961 2962$$ 2963Forecaster Brennan 2964 2965 2966 2967------------=_1440838460-56330-4607 2968Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2969Content-Disposition: inline 2970Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2971 2972= = = == = = 2973WTNT35 KNHC 291154 2974TCPAT5 2975 2976BULLETIN 2977TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A 2978NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2979800 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 2980 2981...ERIKA APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING... 2982...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... 2983 2984 2985SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION 2986---------------------------------------------- 2987LOCATION...21.0N 75.5W 2988ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF HOLGUIN CUBA 2989MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 2990PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H 2991MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES 2992 2993 2994WATCHES AND WARNINGS 2995-------------------- 2996CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: 2997 2998None. 2999 3000SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: 3001 3002A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 3003* Dominican Republic 3004* Haiti 3005* Southeastern Bahamas 3006* Turks and Caicos Islands 3007* Central Bahamas 3008 3009A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 3010* Northwestern Bahamas 3011* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, 3012Holguin, and Guantanamo 3013 3014A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 3015expected somewhere within the warning area. 3016 3017A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 3018possible within the watch area. 3019 3020Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the 3021southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the 3022progress of Erika. 3023 3024For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 3025products issued by your national meteorological service. 3026 3027 3028DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK 3029------------------------------ 3030At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was 3031relocated near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 75.5 West. Erika is 3032moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this 3033general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn 3034toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on 3035Sunday. On the forecast track Erika or its remnants will 3036continue to move near or over portions of eastern Cuba today 3037and move near central Cuba tonight. 3038 3039Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 3040Surface observations from Cuba and reports from an Air Force 3041Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that Erika is degenerating 3042to a trough of low pressure. If subsequent data confirm this, 3043advisories will be discontinued later this morning. 3044 3045Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 3046mainly over water to the east of the center. 3047 3048The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from 3049Cuba is 1010 mb (29.82 inches). 3050 3051 3052HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 3053---------------------- 3054RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 3055of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across 3056portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through 3057Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and 3058mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected 3059to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and 3060Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas 3061through Sunday. 3062 3063WIND: Tropical storm conditions across Haiti will gradually 3064subside this morning, and will continue in portions of the Turks 3065and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas for the next few 3066hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba 3067today. 3068 3069 3070NEXT ADVISORY 3071------------- 3072Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. 3073 3074$$ 3075Forecaster Beven 3076 3077 3078 3079------------=_1440849258-56330-4644 3080Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 3081Content-Disposition: inline 3082Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 3083 3084= = = == = = 3085