1WTNT41 KNHC 290237 2TCDAT1 3 4TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 61100 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 7 8Satellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity 9associated with the depression has increased and become better 10organized during the past several hours. In addition, the low-level 11center now appears to have moved closer to the convection than it 12was earlier. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB 13were 2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is set at that value, 14making the cyclone Tropical Storm Joaquin. This intensity analysis 15also agrees with the reconnaissance aircraft data from earlier today 16that showed winds just under tropical-storm force. 17 18The center of Joaquin has been moving southwestward during the last 19several hours, but it is expected to begin moving slowly westward 20overnight. This westward track is forecast to continue for a couple 21of days while a mid-level ridge remains to the north of the storm. 22After that time, a trough is anticipated to amplify over the eastern 23United States, which should cause Joaquin to turn northward and 24accelerate. There is considerable spread in the models, mainly due 25to the timing of when and how fast the storm makes the northward 26turn, due to differences in the evolution of the trough. In 27general, the guidance envelope has shifted southward for the first 28couple of days and then westward after that time. The official 29track forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but additional 30southward and westward adjustment may be needed in subsequent 31advisories. 32 33Northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is currently affecting Joaquin, 34causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located to the 35southeast of the center. The shear is expected to lessen some 36during the next couple of days, which in combination with warm water 37and high relative humidity values should allow Joaquin to 38strengthen. The official intensity forecast is raised from the 39previous one, but is lower than the intensity model consensus at 40days 3-5. 41 42FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 43 44INIT 29/0300Z 26.7N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 45 12H 29/1200Z 26.9N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 46 24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 47 36H 30/1200Z 27.2N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48 48H 01/0000Z 27.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 49 72H 02/0000Z 28.6N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 50 96H 03/0000Z 32.4N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 51120H 04/0000Z 38.0N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 52 53$$ 54Forecaster Cangialosi 55 56 57 58------------=_1443494233-26319-1485 59Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 60Content-Disposition: inline 61Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 62 63= = = == = = 64WTNT41 KNHC 290837 65TCDAT1 66 67TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 68NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 69500 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 70 71The low-level center of Joaquin remains exposed on the northwestern 72edge of the deep convection due to about 20 kt of shear. A pair of 73ASCAT passes around 01-02Z showed peak winds of around 35 kt, and 74that remains the intensity for this advisory, in agreement with the 75latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. The ASCAT data were also used 76to adjust the initial 34-kt wind radii. 77 78After moving quickly southwestward earlier, the center of Joaquin 79appears to be moving more slowly westward at about 4 kt. The track 80forecast remains highly uncertain, and if anything, the spread in 81the track model guidance is larger now beyond 48 hours due to 82uncertainty in the evolution of the synoptic-scale flow and the 83structure of Joaquin. In particular, the global models are having 84trouble with the evolution of a deep layer trough over the 85southeastern U.S. late in the forecast period, with added 86uncertainty about the structure of Joaquin and how it might interact 87with the trough. The latest runs of the UKMET and ECMWF bring 88Joaquin farther southwest early in the period and then show a 89northward and northeastward motion, respectively, ahead of the 90trough at days 4 and 5. The GFS shows a weaker Joaquin being 91absorbed into a frontal zone off the U.S. east coast in 3 to 4 days, 92while the HWRF and GFDL continue to show a faster northward and 93then northwestward track. In the first 48 hours, the new NHC track 94is a little to the south of the previous one accounting for the 95initial position and motion and a trend toward the multi-model 96consensus. At days 3 through 5, the official forecast is a little to 97the right of and slower than the previous one given the large 98spread in the track guidance. Needless to say, confidence in the 99details of the track forecast, especially beyond 48 hours, is 100extremely low. 101 102The SHIPS model output shows moderate to strong northerly shear 103continuing over the cyclone for the next 24 to 36 hours, which 104should only allow for slow strengthening. After that time, the shear 105decreases a bit and the cyclone could strengthen a little more while 106over warm waters. However, there is a lot of spread in the intensity 107guidance as well. As noted above, the latest run of the GFS 108dissipates Joaquin in 3 to 4 days. On the other hand, the ECMWF and 109UKMET show the cyclone deepening considerably in the short term, 110while the HWRF and GFDL show more strengthening later in the period. 111Given the uncertainty in Joaquin's structure and track, the new NHC 112forecast remains conservative, and is closest to the SHIPS model and 113below the intensity consensus. 114 115FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 116 117INIT 29/0900Z 26.6N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 118 12H 29/1800Z 26.6N 71.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 119 24H 30/0600Z 26.7N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120 36H 30/1800Z 26.8N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 121 48H 01/0600Z 27.1N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 122 72H 02/0600Z 28.5N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 123 96H 03/0600Z 32.0N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 124120H 04/0600Z 36.5N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 125 126$$ 127Forecaster Brennan 128 129 130 131------------=_1443515847-26319-1562 132Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 133Content-Disposition: inline 134Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 135 136= = = == = = 137WTNT41 KNHC 291441 138TCDAT1 139 140TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 141NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 142ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1431100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 144 1451100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 146 147Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern 148of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24 149hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side 150of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The 151upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of 152the system, and restricted over the northern part of the 153circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt, 154which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force 155plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should 156provide a better estimate of intensity. 157 158Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues 159to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in 160this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an 161overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72 162hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern, 163but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should 164allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This 165pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the 166deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good 167likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas, 168and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The 16900Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns 170the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond 17172 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous 172forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5 173days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track 174forecast is very low. 175 176The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease 177in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening, 178which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed 179predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests 180that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days. 181 182FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 183 184INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 185 12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 186 24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 187 36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 188 48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 189 72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 190 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 191120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 192 193$$ 194Forecaster Pasch 195 196 197 198------------=_1443537699-26319-1677 199Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 200Content-Disposition: inline 201Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 202 203= = = == = = 204WTNT41 KNHC 291445 205TCDAT1 206 207TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 208NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 209ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2101100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 211 212Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern 213of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24 214hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side 215of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The 216upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of 217the system, and restricted over the northern part of the 218circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt, 219which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force 220plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should 221provide a better estimate of intensity. 222 223Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues 224to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in 225this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an 226overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72 227hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern, 228but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should 229allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This 230pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the 231deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good 232likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas, 233and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The 23400Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns 235the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond 23672 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous 237forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5 238days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track 239forecast is very low. 240 241The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease 242in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening, 243which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed 244predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests 245that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days. 246 247FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 248 249INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 250 12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 251 24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 252 36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 253 48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 254 72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 255 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 256120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 257 258$$ 259Forecaster Pasch 260 261 262 263------------=_1443537982-26319-1679 264Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 265Content-Disposition: inline 266Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 267 268= = = == = = 269WTNT41 KNHC 291650 270TCDAT1 271 272TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 273NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 274ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2751100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 276 277CORRECTED INTENSITY TO 40 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH 278 279Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern 280of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24 281hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side 282of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The 283upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of 284the system, and restricted over the northern part of the 285circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 40 kt, 286which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force 287plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should 288provide a better estimate of intensity. 289 290Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues 291to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in 292this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an 293overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72 294hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern, 295but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should 296allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This 297pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the 298deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good 299likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas, 300and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The 30100Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns 302the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond 30372 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous 304forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5 305days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track 306forecast is very low. 307 308The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease 309in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening, 310which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed 311predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests 312that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days. 313 314FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 315 316INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 317 12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 318 24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 319 36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 320 48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 321 72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 322 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 323120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 324 325$$ 326Forecaster Pasch/Burke 327 328 329 330------------=_1443545464-26319-1734 331Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 332Content-Disposition: inline 333Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 334 335= = = == = = 336WTNT41 KNHC 292052 337TCDAT1 338 339TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 340NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 341ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 342500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 343 344The cloud pattern of the storm has become better organized during 345the day, with the low level center now embedded inside the northern 346edge of the main area of deep convection. Animation of cirrus 347motions suggest that upper-level outflow is becoming a little more 348prominent over the northern portion of the circulation, and this is 349consistent with decreasing northerly shear. Flight-level, 350dropsonde, and SFMR wind observations from an Air Force 351reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Joaquin has strengthened and 352the intensity is now estimated to be 55 kt. With a more favorable 353upper-level wind environment now expected to prevail, the official 354forecast calls for more strengthening than the previous advisories. 355Joaquin is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, with 356additional intensification likely thereafter. The NHC intensity 357forecast is similar to the latest SHIPS model output. 358 359Fixes from the aircraft show a southward component of motion and 360the initial motion estimate is now 240/4 kt. Joaquin is currently 361south of the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. The 362ECMWF model shows this ridging to the north of the tropical cyclone 363to be more prominent over the next few days than the other dynamical 364models. Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the 365west and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available 366guidance. Later in the forecast period, there is a significant 367divergence in the track guidance. The HWRF and U.K. Met Office 368models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United 369States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system 370well offshore. The official forecast lies between these 371possibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State University 372Superensemble solution. 373 374Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm. 375Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands 376later this evening. 377 378FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 379 380INIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 381 12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 382 24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 383 36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 384 48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 385 72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 386 96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 387120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 388 389$$ 390Forecaster Pasch 391 392 393 394------------=_1443560034-26319-1865 395Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 396Content-Disposition: inline 397Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 398 399= = = == = = 400WTNT41 KNHC 300254 401TCDAT1 402 403TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 404NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 4051100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 406 407The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to become better 408organized this evening. The low-level center is located within the 409northwestern portion of the deep convection and the outflow has 410continued to expand over the northern semicircle, which suggests 411that the shear continues to decrease. The latest satellite 412intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 or 55 kt on the 413Dvorak scale. Based on the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and 414the continued increase in organization this evening, the initial 415wind speed has been raised to 60 kt. Joaquin is forecast to be over 416warm water and in an increasingly favorable upper-level wind pattern 417during the next day or so. These conditions favor intensification 418and the NHC forecast calls for Joaquin to become a hurricane within 419the next 12 hours. The upper-level winds are shown by the global 420models to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an 421upper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional 422strengthening is anticipated. The new NHC forecast is a bit 423higher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCN 424intensity consensus aid. It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS, 425and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next 426few days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative. 427 428Joaquin is moving west-southwestward at about 5 kt. This general 429motion is forecast to continue during the next 24-36 hours while the 430cyclone remains to the southwest of a weak mid-level ridge. During 431this time, the center of Joaquin is forecast to move near or over 432portions of the Central Bahamas. After 48 hours, a deepening mid- 433to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States is 434expected to cause a turn toward the north or north-northeast with an 435increase in forward speed. There remains large spread in the 436guidance at days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF showing a northeastward 437motion toward Bermuda. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS shifted significantly 438westward and is close to the UKMET and HWRF, which are along the 439western edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has been 440shifted westward, but it is not as far west as the multi-model 441consensus. The new track is fairly close to the ECMWF-Ensemble Mean. 442 443The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the 444Central Bahamas. Additional watches or warnings may be required 445early Wednesday. 446 447At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential 448impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steering 449currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent 450manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes are 451possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any, 452Joaquin will have on the United States. 453 454FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 455 456INIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 457 12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 458 24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 459 36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 460 48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 461 72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 462 96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 463120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 464 465$$ 466Forecaster Brown 467 468 469 470------------=_1443581691-26319-1978 471Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 472Content-Disposition: inline 473Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 474 475= = = == = = 476WTNT41 KNHC 300849 477TCDAT1 478 479TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 480NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 481500 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 482 483The coldest convective cloud tops are located to the east of the 484estimated center position, but there have been hints of an eye in 485infrared imagery overnight. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak 486estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 60 kt. An 487Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on its way to 488investigate Joaquin this morning. Conditions are expected to be 489conducive for intensification during the next few days, with Joaquin 490moving over very warm waters with shear steadily decreasing. The 491hurricane intensity guidance and the latest runs of the GFS, UKMET, 492and ECMWF all show Joaquin intensifying, and in fact, the global 493models show the central pressure in the 950s or lower. The NHC 494forecast is near the latest intensity model consensus, and has 495Joaquin peaking in 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be 496moving into a higher shear environment and over cooler waters, which 497should result in slow weakening. 498 499Joaquin continues to move west-southwestward under the influence of 500a short-wave ridge to its north, and the initial motion estimate is 501245/05. This motion should continue for the next 24 hours, and 502Joaquin is expected to then turn slowly westward as the ridge 503weakens on Thursday. The UKMET and ECMWF continue to show Joaquin 504moving farther southwestward into the central Bahamas than the rest 505of the guidance. The new NHC track in the short range is a little 506south of the previous one, but north of the UKMET/ECMWF solution. 507Given this new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued a 508Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas and a Hurricane Watch for 509part of the northwestern Bahamas. 510 511After 36 hours, Joaquin is forecast to turn northwestward and then 512northward as it interacts with a deep-layer trough that cuts off 513over the southeastern United States in about 3 days. Much of the 514deterministic guidance shows Joaquin turning northwestward 515toward the mid-Atlantic coast by days 4 and 5. However, the ECMWF 516continues to show an offshore solution with a track west of Bermuda, 517but has shifted to the left this cycle by about 150 miles at day 5. 518While the overall synoptic pattern is similar between the models, 519the eventual track of Joaquin appears sensitive to just how far 520southwest it moves in the first 36 to 48 hours and how this affect 521the eventual interaction with the upper-level low. The GFS, HWRF, 522and GFDL show a sharp turn back to toward the coast in 4 days, while 523the ECMWF is slower to bring Joaquin northward and ejects the 524cyclone toward the northeast. The UKMET is between those two 525scenarios with a broader turn back toward the coast by day 5. There 526is still ensemble support for a wide range of solutions, so 527confidence in any deterministic model solution remains quite low. 528The NHC track has been nudged a little to the left this cycle to 529reflect the westward shift in the guidance, but lies on the eastern 530side of the guidance envelope given the ECMWF solution. 531 532Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period 533remains very low, since the environmental steering currents are 534complex and not being handled in a consistent manner by the models. 535Given that a wide range of outcomes is possible, it is too soon to 536say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States. 537 538FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 539 540INIT 30/0900Z 25.4N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 541 12H 30/1800Z 25.1N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 542 24H 01/0600Z 24.7N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 543 36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 544 48H 02/0600Z 25.2N 74.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 545 72H 03/0600Z 28.3N 73.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 546 96H 04/0600Z 33.0N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 547120H 05/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 548 549$$ 550Forecaster Brennan 551 552 553 554------------=_1443602981-26319-2061 555Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 556Content-Disposition: inline 557Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 558 559= = = == = = 560WTNT41 KNHC 301458 561TCDAT1 562 563HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 564NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 5651100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 566 567Joaquin has continued to strengthen overnight. Satellite imagery 568shows that the convection has become more symmetric, and recent 569visible images show what might be an eye trying to form. An Air 570Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight- 571level winds of 83 kt and estimated 70 kt surface winds from the 572Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, with a central pressure of 573971 mb estimated from the aircraft data. Based on these, the 574initial intensity is increased to 70 kt. 575 576Joaquin has moved a little south of the previous track with an 577initial motion of 230/5. The shortwave ridge causing this motion 578is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong 579deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States. 580This is expected to cause the hurricane to turn northward by 72 581hours. There is disagreement in the track guidance between the 582ECMWF and the other dynamical models. The majority of the guidance 583forecasts Joaquin to turn west of north after 48-72 hours, with the 584storm moving inland over the mid-Atlantic states and merging with 585the trough. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecast the hurricane to 586move out to sea between North America and Bermuda. The ECMWF 587forecasts Joaquin to move more to the south during the first 24-48 588hours than the other models. In addition, it shows the hurricane 589interacting with an upper-level low to its northeast that results in 590a more eastward motion after 48 hours. The new forecast track, 591which is similar to the previous track, leans more toward the 592non-ECMWF guidance. However, out of deference to the ECMWF, it 593lies to the east of the center of the guidance envelope and the 594consensus models. The NOAA G-IV jet is scheduled to fly a synoptic 595surveillance mission this afternoon, which, along with special 596rawinsonde launches over the eastern U. S., hopefully will reduce 597the spread of the guidance. 598 599Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate 600northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours. However, 601since it has been steadily strengthening in such an environment, 602there is no obvious reason to think it will stop doing so. After 60336 hours, the hurricane is likely to move into an area of divergent 604southerly upper-level winds associated with the eastern U. S. 605trough. While there is uncertainty as to how much shear should 606occur, it is expected that additional intensification could occur 607through 72 hours. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for 608Joaquin to peak as a major hurricane in about 72 hours, and it is 609possible it could be stronger than currently forecast. After 72 610hours, increasing shear and cold air intrusion should cause 611weakening and the start of extratropical transition. 612 613 614KEY MESSAGES: 615 6161. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the 617period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are 618complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of 619outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane 620along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from 621the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific 622wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S. 623 6242. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments 625of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an 626increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast 627occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could 628be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday 629evening. 630 6313. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy 632rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This 633inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days, 634which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head 635toward the coast. 636 637 638FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 639 640INIT 30/1500Z 24.7N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 641 12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 642 24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 74.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 643 36H 02/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 644 48H 02/1200Z 25.3N 74.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 645 72H 03/1200Z 28.5N 73.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 646 96H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 647120H 05/1200Z 38.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 648 649$$ 650Forecaster Beven 651 652 653 654------------=_1443625130-26319-2157 655Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 656Content-Disposition: inline 657Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 658 659= = = == = = 660WTNT41 KNHC 302055 661TCDAT1 662 663HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 664NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 665500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 666 667There has been little change in the organization of Joaquin during 668the past several hours. While the hurricane continues to produce 669cloud tops colder than -80C in the eyewall, the eye has not become 670better defined since the last advisory. Satellite intensity 671estimates are 77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the advisory 672intensity is now 75 kt. 673 674The initial motion is 225/7. The shortwave ridge causing this 675motion is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong 676deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States. 677Thus, a generally southwestward motion is expected for the next 36 678hours or so, followed by a turn toward the north as the trough 679becomes the dominant steering mechanism. There is an increased 680disagreement between the GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and NAVGEM models 681versus the ECMWF since the last advisory. The ECMWF has continued 682its forecast of showing a northeastward motion after 72 hours, 683taking Joaquin just west of Bermuda and out to sea. The other 684models have all shifted their forecasts to the left and now 685call for landfall in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, 686followed by merger with the baroclinic trough. Given the shift in 687the non-ECMWF models, a major westward adjustment has been made to 688the forecast track at 96 and 120 hours, bringing the center of 689Joaquin near or over portions of the mid-Atlantic states. Due to 690the use of the ECMWF in the consensus models, the new track lies 691near the various consensus models. However, it lies well to the 692east of the GFS and the other similar models. The NOAA G-IV jet is 693currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission, which, along with 694special rawinsonde launches, hopefully will reduce the spread of the 695guidance. 696 697There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy since 698the last advisory. Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment 699of moderate northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours, 700possibly including strong winds seen at 400 mb in recent dropsondes 701from the G-IV aircraft. However, since it has been steadily 702strengthening in such an environment, there is no obvious reason to 703think it will stop doing so. After 36 hours, the hurricane is 704likely to move into an area of divergent southerly upper-level winds 705associated with the eastern U. S. trough. While there is 706uncertainty as to how much shear should occur, it is expected that 707additional intensification could occur through at least 48 hours. 708Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to peak as a 709major hurricane in 48-72 hours, and it is possible it could be 710stronger than currently forecast. After 72 hours, increasing shear, 711cold air intrusion, and land interaction should cause weakening and 712the start of extratropical transition. 713 714 715KEY MESSAGES: 716 7171. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning 718areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion. 719 7202. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this 721afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic 722states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the 723forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally 724excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States 725east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and 726includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the 727Carolinas. 728 7293. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with 730as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of 731missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service 732is launching extra balloon soundings. 733 7344. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days 735away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge 736impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stays 737well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate 738coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and 739northeastern states through the weekend. 740 7415. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be 742required as early as Thursday evening. 743 7446. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy 745rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This 746inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days, 747which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head 748toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the 749hurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas 750even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea. 751 752 753FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 754 755INIT 30/2100Z 24.3N 73.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 756 12H 01/0600Z 24.0N 73.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 757 24H 01/1800Z 23.9N 74.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 758 36H 02/0600Z 24.5N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 759 48H 02/1800Z 25.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 760 72H 03/1800Z 30.5N 74.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 761 96H 04/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 762120H 05/1800Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 763 764$$ 765Forecaster Beven 766 767 768 769------------=_1443646552-20695-113 770Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 771Content-Disposition: inline 772Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 773 774= = = == = = 775WTNT41 KNHC 010250 776TCDAT1 777 778HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 779NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 7801100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 781 782Joaquin has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours with the 783satellite presentation continuing to improve this evening. The eye 784has recently become apparent near the center of the very symmetric 785central dense overcast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 786aircraft that has been investigating the hurricane this evening has 787measured peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt and 102 kt surface 788winds from the SFMR. These data support an initial intensity of 789100 kt, making Joaquin the second major hurricane of the 2015 790Atlantic hurricane season. NOTE: Communications problems have 791delayed the public release of the Air Force reconnaissance data. 792 793Joaquin continues to move slowly southwestward with an initial 794motion estimate of 220/5 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move 795slowly southwestward or west-southwestward for another 24 hours or 796so while it remains to the south of a narrow northeast to southwest 797oriented ridge. This ridge is expected to weaken by Friday as a 798trough deepens and cuts off over the southeastern United States. 799This should cause Joaquin to turn northward within 48 hours. The 18Z 800runs of the GFS and HWRF remain in general agreement with the 12Z 801UKMET and Canadian models moving Joaquin around the northeastern 802portion of the cut-off low and bring the hurricane inland over the 803Carolinas or mid-Atlantic states. The 12Z ECMWF remains the outlier 804by showing a track toward the northeast out to sea. The NHC 805forecast continues to follow the trend of the bulk of the guidance 806and takes Joaquin toward the U.S east coast. The NHC track is 807similar to the previous advisory and is once again east of the 808multi-model consensus. The NOAA G-IV aircraft has recently 809completed its synoptic surveillance flight, and data collected 810during this mission should be assimilated into the 0000 UTC models, 811hopefully reducing the spread of the track guidance. 812 813The upper-level wind pattern over the hurricane is forecast by the 814global models to become even more conducive during the next couple 815of days. This favors additional intensification, with the only 816possible limiting factors being upwelling of cool SSTs beneath the 817slow-moving hurricane and eyewall cycles which could cause some 818fluctuations in intensity. By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly 819shear, dry air intrusion, and lower SSTs are expected to cause 820gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been 821significantly increased from the previous advisory primarily due to 822the higher initial intensity. The official forecast is between the 823lower statistical guidance and the higher HWRF during the first 82436-48 hours, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM guidance after that time. 825 826 827KEY MESSAGES: 828 8291. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning 830areas in the Central Bahamas should be completed now. 831 8322. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains 833low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin 834far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible 835outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major 836hurricane landfall in the Carolinas. 837 8383. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with 839as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of 840missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service 841has begun launching extra balloon soundings. 842 8434. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days 844away, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge 845impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's 846track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal 847flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern 848states through the weekend. 849 8505. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be 851required as early as Thursday evening. 852 8536. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing 854heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These 855heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if 856the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood 857potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head 858toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is 859possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas. 860 861 862FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 863 864INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 865 12H 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 866 24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 867 36H 02/1200Z 24.7N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 868 48H 03/0000Z 26.6N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 869 72H 04/0000Z 31.6N 74.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 870 96H 05/0000Z 36.2N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 871120H 06/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 872 873$$ 874Forecaster Brown 875 876 877 878------------=_1443667826-20695-207 879Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 880Content-Disposition: inline 881Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 882 883= = = == = = 884WTNT41 KNHC 010849 885TCDAT1 886 887HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 888NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 889500 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 890 891Data from the last aircraft mission indicated the Joaquin had 892strengthened a little more, and the intensity of 105 kt is supported 893by flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data from the plane. The 894central pressure of 948 mb is based on a dropsonde that measured 950 895mb with 20 kt of wind. The satellite presentation of the hurricane 896continues to gradually improve, with cold tops expanding near and 897west of the center, although the eye is not yet apparent in infrared 898imagery. Another hurricane hunter aircraft will be investigating 899Joaquin later this morning. 900 901Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24 902hours while over very warm waters and with decreasing vertical 903shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in 904intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles and perhaps some 905upwelling of cold waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane. 906After 48 hours, cooler SSTs and increasing shear should result in 907gradual weakening as Joaquin moves northward. The new NHC intensity 908forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HWRF 909through 24 hours. After that time, the NHC prediction is above the 910intensity consensus since the official forecast keeps the cyclone 911offshore, while the remainder of the intensity guidance shows 912weakening due to decay over land. 913 914The initial motion of the hurricane is still toward the southwest 915or 230/04 under the influence of a narrow ridge to the north. A 916slow motion with a bending of the track toward the west and then 917the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours as the 918ridge weakens. During this time the NHC track has been adjusted 919southward following the latest trend in the guidance. The slow 920motion of Joaquin will mean a prolonged period of hurricane 921conditions in portions of the central Bahamas, along with very heavy 922rain and storm surge. 923 924By 36 hours, Joaquin should begin to move faster toward the north as 925it comes under the influence of a deep-layer trough that cuts off 926over the southeastern United States. There have been big changes in 927some of the track guidance overnight, perhaps due to data from the 928synoptic surveillance mission flown by the NOAA G-IV jet for the 00Z 929model cycle. In particular, the GFS and UKMET have shifted eastward 930by several hundred miles in 3 to 4 days relative to their previous 931solutions. Overall for this cycle there has been a spreading out of 932the guidance envelope beyond 2 days, with a wide range of solutions 933shown. The HWRF and GFDL are the fastest to bring Joaquin north out 934of the Bahamas and still show a sharp westward turn taking the 935cyclone inland over the Carolinas in 3 to 4 days. The GFS has 936trended slower coming out of the Bahamas and now shows a track 937toward Long Island and southern New England in 5 days, with the 938UKMET farther offshore. The latest ECMWF is still the slowest and 939farthest east with a track just west of Bermuda in 4 to 5 days. 940Given the large shift in some of the guidance, the NHC track has 941been adjusted just a little to the east and slower at days 3 through 9425, and now lies on the left side of the multi-model consensus and 943left of the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF solutions. Confidence remains very 944low in the eventual track of Joaquin and any potential impacts for 945the United States, and further adjustments to the NHC track may be 946needed later today. 947 948KEY MESSAGES: 949 9501. Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas 951should be complete. The slow motion of Joaquin during the next 24 952to 36 hours will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds, 953storm surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands. 954 9552. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains 956low, as there have been some large changes in the model guidance 957overnight. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and 958the possibility of a hurricane landfall in the Carolinas still 959cannot be ruled out. 960 9613. Efforts continue to provide the forecast models with as much 962data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet flew the first in a series of 963missions in the storm environment last night, and these missions 964will continue today. The National Weather Service also continues to 965launch extra balloon soundings. 966 9674. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days 968away, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge 969impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's 970track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal 971flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern 972states through the weekend. 973 9745. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be 975required as early as tonight. 976 9776. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing 978heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These 979heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if 980the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood 981potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head 982toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is 983possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas. 984 985FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 986 987INIT 01/0900Z 23.4N 73.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 988 12H 01/1800Z 23.1N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 989 24H 02/0600Z 23.4N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 990 36H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 991 48H 03/0600Z 26.8N 74.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 992 72H 04/0600Z 32.5N 74.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 993 96H 05/0600Z 36.0N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 994120H 06/0600Z 39.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 995 996$$ 997Forecaster Brennan 998 999 1000 1001------------=_1443689404-20695-301 1002Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1003Content-Disposition: inline 1004Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1005 1006= = = == = = 1007WTNT41 KNHC 011504 1008TCDAT1 1009 1010HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 1011NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 10121100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 1013 1014An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb 1015flight-level winds of 119 kt in the northwestern eyewall, with a 1016117 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave 1017Radiometer in the southwestern eyewall. The latest central 1018pressure was 942 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity 1019is increased to 110 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that an eye is 1020trying to form in the central dense overcast, and that the cirrus 1021outflow is good in all directions. 1022 1023Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24 1024hours as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of 1025decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there could be some 1026fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. There 1027is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the 48-96 hour 1028period. The statistical models suggest that Joaquin should weaken 1029due to increasing shear. However, several of the global models 1030forecast the hurricane to move into an area of strong upper-level 1031divergence and show a falling central pressure. The new forecast 1032will continue to show weakening during this time, but it would not 1033be a surprise if it is stronger than currently forecast. 1034 1035The initial motion is 220/5. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to 1036upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing 1037deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States. 1038The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as 1039it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern 1040evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northwestward in 24 hours or 1041so and then turn northward. After 36 hours, the guidance remains 1042very divergent. The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models 1043forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the 1044Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast 1045a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to 1046sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a 1047generally northward motion. Given the spread and the possibility 1048that the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, the 1049forecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at 1050this time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models, 1051but to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensus 1052models. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later today 1053depending on how the models do (or do not) change. 1054 1055 1056KEY MESSAGES: 1057 10581. Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas 1059should be complete. The slow motion of Joaquin over the next day or 1060so will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds, storm 1061surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands. 1062 10632. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours is 1064still low, since there have been some large changes in the model 1065guidance overnight and a large spread in the model solutions 1066remains, with potential impacts from the Carolinas through New 1067England. It is also possible that Joaquin will remain far from the 1068U.S. east coast. A hurricane watch for the U.S. coast would likely 1069not occur until at least Friday morning. 1070 10713. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as 1072possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the 1073storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 1074 10754. It's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge 1076impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's 1077track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal 1078flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern 1079states through the weekend. 1080 10815. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing 1082heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These 1083heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if 1084the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood 1085potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head 1086toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is 1087possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas. 1088 1089 1090FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1091 1092INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 1093 12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 1094 24H 02/1200Z 23.7N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 1095 36H 03/0000Z 25.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 1096 48H 03/1200Z 27.5N 73.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 1097 72H 04/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 1098 96H 05/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 1099120H 06/1200Z 40.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 1100 1101$$ 1102Forecaster Beven 1103 1104 1105 1106------------=_1443711915-20695-393 1107Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1108Content-Disposition: inline 1109Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1110 1111= = = == = = 1112WTNT41 KNHC 012045 1113TCDAT1 1114 1115HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 1116NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1117500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 1118 1119The earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 1120700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt in the southwestern eyewall, 1121with a subsequent 114-kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped 1122Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southeastern eyewall. The 1123last central pressure extrapolated from the aircraft data was 936 1124mb. In addition, satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, 1125and CIMSS are now in the 115-127 kt range. Based on these data, the 1126intensity was increased to 115 kt at 1800 UTC, making Joaquin a 1127Category 4 hurricane. While this advisory will not increase the 1128intensity any further, it is expected that the next aircraft 1129arriving in the hurricane near 0000 UTC will find a stronger system. 1130 1131Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more during the next 12 1132hours or so as it remains over very warm waters and in an 1133environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there 1134could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement 1135cycles. While there remains some uncertainty regarding the 1136intensity in the 48-96 hour range, the new forecast is 1137similar to the previous forecast in calling for a steady weakening 1138during this period. Overall, the intensity forecast lies near the 1139upper edge of the guidance envelope. 1140 1141Joaquin has moved with a more westward component during the past few 1142hours and the initial motion is now 235/5. Water vapor imagery 1143shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a 1144developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern 1145United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a 1146cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This 1147pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northward in 12-24 1148hours. The guidance after 48 hours has changed somewhat since the 1149last advisory, with the GFS and the UKMET moving farther to the east 1150and lying closer to the ECMWF. In addition, the HWRF has made a 1151big jump to the east and now shows an offshore track. These changes 1152have pushed the consensus models farther eastward. 1153The Canadian, GFDL, and NAVGEM models are holdouts, however - still 1154calling for Joaquin to interact with the United States trough and 1155turn northwestward toward the U. S. coast. The new forecast track 1156is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120 1157hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, 1158HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the 1159track are likely. 1160 1161 1162KEY MESSAGES: 1163 11641. Joaquins slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions 1165will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well 1166into Friday. 1167 11682. A strong majority of the forecast models are now in agreement on 1169a track farther away from the United States east coast. We are 1170becoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states 1171will avoid the direct effects from Joaquin. However, we cannot yet 1172completely rule out direct impacts along on the east coast, and 1173residents there should continue to follow the progress of Joaquin 1174over the next couple of days. 1175 11763. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as 1177possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the 1178storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 1179 11804. Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds 1181associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate 1182coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and 1183northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy 1184rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding 1185over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products 1186issued by local NWS Forecast Offices. 1187 1188 1189FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1190 1191INIT 01/2100Z 23.0N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 1192 12H 02/0600Z 23.2N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 1193 24H 02/1800Z 24.4N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 1194 36H 03/0600Z 25.9N 74.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 1195 48H 03/1800Z 28.4N 73.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 1196 72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 1197 96H 05/1800Z 37.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 1198120H 06/1800Z 41.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 1199 1200$$ 1201Forecaster Beven 1202 1203 1204 1205------------=_1443732358-20695-504 1206Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1207Content-Disposition: inline 1208Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1209 1210= = = == = = 1211WTNT41 KNHC 012054 1212TCDAT1 1213 1214HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 1215NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1216500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 1217 1218The earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 1219700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt in the southwestern eyewall, 1220with a subsequent 114-kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped 1221Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southeastern eyewall. The 1222last central pressure extrapolated from the aircraft data was 936 1223mb. In addition, satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, 1224and CIMSS are now in the 115-127 kt range. Based on these data, the 1225intensity was increased to 115 kt at 1800 UTC, making Joaquin a 1226Category 4 hurricane. While this advisory will not increase the 1227intensity any further, it is expected that the next aircraft 1228arriving in the hurricane near 0000 UTC will find a stronger system. 1229 1230Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more during the next 12 1231hours or so as it remains over very warm waters and in an 1232environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there 1233could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement 1234cycles. While there remains some uncertainty regarding the 1235intensity in the 48-96 hour range, the new forecast is 1236similar to the previous forecast in calling for a steady weakening 1237during this period. Overall, the intensity forecast lies near the 1238upper edge of the guidance envelope. 1239 1240Joaquin has moved with a more westward component during the past few 1241hours and the initial motion is now 235/5. Water vapor imagery 1242shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a 1243developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern 1244United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a 1245cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This 1246pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northward in 12-24 1247hours. The guidance after 48 hours has changed somewhat since the 1248last advisory, with the GFS and the UKMET moving farther to the east 1249and lying closer to the ECMWF. In addition, the HWRF has made a 1250big jump to the east and now shows an offshore track. These changes 1251have pushed the consensus models farther eastward. 1252The Canadian, GFDL, and NAVGEM models are holdouts, however - still 1253calling for Joaquin to interact with the United States trough and 1254turn northwestward toward the U. S. coast. The new forecast track 1255is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120 1256hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, 1257HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the 1258track are likely. 1259 1260 1261KEY MESSAGES: 1262 12631. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions 1264will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well 1265into Friday. 1266 12672. A strong majority of the forecast models are now in agreement on 1268a track farther away from the United States east coast. We are 1269becoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states 1270will avoid the direct effects from Joaquin. However, we cannot yet 1271completely rule out direct impacts along on the east coast, and 1272residents there should continue to follow the progress of Joaquin 1273over the next couple of days. 1274 12753. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as 1276possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the 1277storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 1278 12794. Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds 1280associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate 1281coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and 1282northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy 1283rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding 1284over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products 1285issued by local NWS Forecast Offices. 1286 1287 1288FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1289 1290INIT 01/2100Z 23.0N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 1291 12H 02/0600Z 23.2N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 1292 24H 02/1800Z 24.4N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 1293 36H 03/0600Z 25.9N 74.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 1294 48H 03/1800Z 28.4N 73.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 1295 72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 1296 96H 05/1800Z 37.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 1297120H 06/1800Z 41.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 1298 1299$$ 1300Forecaster Beven 1301 1302 1303 1304------------=_1443732900-20695-510 1305Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1306Content-Disposition: inline 1307Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1308 1309= = = == = = 1310WTNT41 KNHC 020241 1311TCDAT1 1312 1313HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 1314NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 13151100 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 1316 1317The eye of Joaquin contracted in satellite imagery late this 1318afternoon, but has become obscured by cirrus clouds since that time. 1319Recent microwave imagery and aircraft observations have not shown 1320any indications of an eyewall replacement, but the intensity appears 1321to have leveled off for now. The aircraft has measured peak 700-mb 1322flight-level winds of 123 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of 116 1323kt, which support an initial wind speed of 115 kt. Satellite images 1324show that the outflow is well established over the hurricane and 1325some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours 1326or so. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in 1327intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. Joaquin is forecast to 1328encounter increasing southwesterly shear in 2 to 3 days, which is 1329expected to cause some weakening during that time. However, Joaquin 1330is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane for the next 1331several days. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of 1332the guidance in the short-term, and is close to the intensity 1333consensus throughout the remainder of the forecast period. 1334 1335Recent reconnaissance fixes suggest that Joaquin has turned westward 1336and slowed down, with an initial motion of 260/3. The mid- to 1337upper-level ridge that has been steering Joaquin southwestward is 1338expected to quickly weaken overnight while a mid- to upper-level 1339trough over the southeastern United States deepens and cuts off. 1340This should cause Joaquin to turn northward on Friday, and move 1341north-northeastward at a faster forward speed Friday night and 1342Saturday. The model envelope has again shifted eastward, with the 1343GFDL and NAVGEM models now joining the other dynamical models which 1344keep Joaquin offshore of the United States east coast. This has 1345required another eastward shift to the NHC forecast, but it still 1346lies to the west of the multi-model consensus and the most recent 1347runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. The updated track is closest to 1348the GFS ensemble mean. Additional eastward adjustments could be 1349required to the official forecast overnight. 1350 1351Surface and reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that Joaquin's 1352wind field has expanded during the past 24 hours. The initial and 1353forecast wind radii have been adjusted outward accordingly. The 1354increase in size has resulted in the issuance of a Tropical Storm 1355Warning for eastern Cuba where wind gusts above tropical-storm- 1356force have already been observed. 1357 1358 1359KEY MESSAGES: 1360 13611. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions 1362will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well 1363into Friday. 1364 13652. The forecast models continue to indicate a track farther away 1366from the United States east coast and the threat of direct impacts 1367from Joaquin in the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states appears to be 1368decreasing. However, the threat of impacts in Bermuda has increased 1369and a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for that 1370island on Friday. 1371 13723. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as 1373possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the 1374storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 1375 13764. Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds 1377associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate 1378coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and 1379northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy 1380rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding 1381over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products 1382issued by local NWS Forecast Offices. 1383 1384 1385FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1386 1387INIT 02/0300Z 22.9N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 1388 12H 02/1200Z 23.2N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 1389 24H 03/0000Z 24.7N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 1390 36H 03/1200Z 26.6N 73.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 1391 48H 04/0000Z 29.0N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 1392 72H 05/0000Z 33.4N 70.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 1393 96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 1394120H 07/0000Z 42.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 1395 1396$$ 1397Forecaster Brown 1398 1399 1400 1401------------=_1443753721-20695-606 1402Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1403Content-Disposition: inline 1404Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1405 1406= = = == = = 1407WTNT41 KNHC 020842 1408TCDAT1 1409 1410HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 1411NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1412500 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 1413 1414The eye of Joaquin has not been apparent in recent infrared imagery. 1415The last pass of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the center 1416around 04Z showed indications of a double wind maximum at flight 1417level, which could indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle is 1418underway. The last report from the aircraft indicated that the 1419central pressure still around 935 mb. The initial intensity remains 1420115 kt pending the arrival of the next aircraft before 12Z. Some 1421fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 to 24 1422hours due to eyewall replacement. After that time, gradual weakening 1423is forecast as the cyclone encounters increasing southwesterly 1424shear, but Joaquin is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for 1425the next several days. Faster weakening in shown late in the period 1426as the cyclone is forecast move over cooler waters and the shear 1427increases further. 1428 1429The initial motion estimate is a slow drift toward the northwest, or 1430315/03, with the hurricane now gaining a bit of latitude based on 1431recent center fixes. The ridge north of Joaquin will weaken in the 1432next 12 to 24 hours as a mid/upper-level low moves in from the east, 1433and the hurricane should begin to move more quickly northward today 1434and then accelerate northeastward tonight and Saturday. The track 1435model guidance is in reasonable agreement on this scenario, and the 1436NHC forecast during the first 2 days is a little to the right of the 1437previous one, trending toward the latest multi-model consensus. 1438 1439After that time, there have been some changes in the latest models, 1440with the GFS trending west from its previous forecast with a track 1441still offshore but closer to Cape Cod in about 5 days. The ECMWF has 1442also trended westward this cycle away from Bermuda and now lies 1443closer to the middle of the guidance suite. The UKMET is now the 1444eastern-most model, but still shows a track west of Bermuda. The 1445spread in the guidance at these time ranges appears to be due to 1446differences in the strength and speed of the westward movement of 1447the upper-level low passing north of Joaquin in the next 2 to 3 1448days. The new NHC forecast at days 3 and 4 has been shifted a little 1449to the east of the previous one and now lies near the latest 1450consensus aids. At day 5, all of the guidance shows the cyclone 1451accelerating east-northeastward, and the NHC track reflects this 1452trend. Given the continued variability in the guidance from cycle to 1453cycle, further adjustments will likely be needed to the NHC track at 1454days 3 through 5. 1455 1456KEY MESSAGES: 1457 14581. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions 1459will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas 1460today. 1461 14622. The forecast models continue to indicate a track offshore of the 1463United States east coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic 1464states, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas 1465is decreasing. However, there is still uncertainty in how close 1466Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape 1467Cod, and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in 1468those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the 1469hurricane. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for 1470Bermuda later today. 1471 14723. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as 1473possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the 1474storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 1475 14764. Even if Joaquin remains offshore, strong onshore winds 1477associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate 1478coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and 1479northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy 1480rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding 1481over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products 1482issued by local NWS Forecast Offices. 1483 1484FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1485 1486INIT 02/0900Z 23.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 1487 12H 02/1800Z 23.9N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 1488 24H 03/0600Z 25.4N 74.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 1489 36H 03/1800Z 27.4N 72.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 1490 48H 04/0600Z 30.0N 70.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 1491 72H 05/0600Z 34.8N 69.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 1492 96H 06/0600Z 39.0N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 1493120H 07/0600Z 43.5N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 1494 1495$$ 1496Forecaster Brennan 1497 1498 1499 1500------------=_1443775352-20695-683 1501Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1502Content-Disposition: inline 1503Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1504 1505= = = == = = 1506WTNT41 KNHC 021453 1507TCDAT1 1508 1509HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 1510NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 15111100 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 1512 1513An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported 700-mb 1514flight-level winds of 124 kt in the southeastern eyewall, along 1515with an eyewall dropsonde that supports surface winds of 110-115 1516kt. Based on these data, the intensity remains 115 kt. The latest 1517central pressure indicated by the aircraft data is 939 mb. While 1518the hurricane continues to produce cloud tops of -80C in the 1519eyewall, the eye is ragged and poorly defined in satellite imagery. 1520 1521Joaquin has turned northward during the past few hours and the 1522initial motion is now 360/3. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to 1523upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane, 1524while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located 1525over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to 1526move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the 1527front during the next couple of days. These developments should 1528steer Joaquin northward to northeastward during the next 12 hours 1529or so, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast. The GFS, 1530UKMET, and ECMWF are now in better agreement that Joaquin will move 1531generally northeastward through 48 hours, followed by a more 1532northward turn between 48 and 72 hours. This is then followed 1533by movement into the westerlies and acceleration toward the east- 1534northeast after 72 hours. The new forecast track is adjusted to 1535the east of the previous track after 24 hours, and it lies between 1536the previous track and the model consensus. Some additional 1537eastward adjustments to the track may occur on the next advisory 1538based on the 1200 UTC model runs. 1539 1540Joaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical 1541wind shear for another 24 hours or so, and during this time some 1542fluctuations in intensity are possible due to eyewall replacement 1543cycles. After 24 hours, the shear is forecast to increase, which 1544should start a steady weakening. Extratropical transition is 1545expected to begin after 96 hours, but the dynamical models suggest 1546it may not be complete before 120 hours. Overall, the new 1547intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and lies 1548near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. 1549 1550 1551KEY MESSAGES: 1552 15531. Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas are likely to 1554continue into this evening. 1555 15562. Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S. 1557east coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current 1558conditions. Please see products from your local National Weather 1559Service forecast office. For information on the heavy rains 1560occurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated 1561to Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather 1562Prediction Center and your local forecast office. 1563 15643. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for 1565Bermuda this afternoon. 1566 1567 1568 1569 1570FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1571 1572INIT 02/1500Z 23.5N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 1573 12H 03/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 1574 24H 03/1200Z 26.1N 73.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 1575 36H 04/0000Z 28.2N 71.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 1576 48H 04/1200Z 30.6N 69.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 1577 72H 05/1200Z 35.5N 67.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 1578 96H 06/1200Z 39.5N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 1579120H 07/1200Z 43.5N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 1580 1581$$ 1582Forecaster Beven 1583 1584 1585 1586------------=_1443797652-20695-795 1587Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1588Content-Disposition: inline 1589Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1590 1591= = = == = = 1592WTNT41 KNHC 022055 1593TCDAT1 1594 1595HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 1596NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1597500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 1598 1599Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane 1600Hunter aircraft indicate that Joaquin has weakened a little since 1601the last advisory, with the central pressure rising to 942 mb. 1602Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to 110 kt. 1603Subsequent observations from San Salvador Island and dropsondes from 1604a NASA aircraft suggest the pressure is still near 942 mb. While 1605the hurricane continues to produce cold cloud tops in the eyewall, 1606the convective pattern currently looks ragged in infrared imagery, 1607and only occasional hints of a eye are apparent in visible imagery. 1608 1609The initial motion is now 360/6. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- 1610to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane, 1611while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located 1612over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to 1613move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the 1614front during the next couple of days. While this occurs, a mid- to 1615upper-level low currently centered near 30N 64W should move 1616west-northwestward to the north of Joaquin. These developments 1617should steer Joaquin northward for the next few hours, followed by 1618a turn toward the northeast. The track guidance is now in good 1619agreement that Joaquin will move generally northeastward between 1620the United States and Bermuda, with a short-lived northward turn in 1621the 48-72 hour period. Eventually, the cyclone is expected to 1622move into the westerlies and move quickly east-northeastward across 1623the North Atlantic. The new forecast track is similar to the 1624previous forecast and now lies near the consensus models. 1625 1626Joaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical 1627wind shear for another 12-24 hours or so, and during this time some 1628fluctuations in intensity are possible. After 24 hours, the shear is 1629forecast to increase, which should start a steady weakening. 1630Extratropical transition is expected to begin around 96 hours and be 1631complete by 120 hours. Overall, the new intensity forecast is an 1632update of the previous advisory and lies near the intensity 1633consensus. 1634 1635 1636KEY MESSAGES: 1637 16381. Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas should 1639continue for several more hours. 1640 16412. Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S. 1642east coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current 1643conditions. Please see products from your local National Weather 1644Service forecast office. For information on the heavy rains 1645occurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated 1646to Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather 1647Prediction Center and your local forecast office. 1648 16493. Since the direct threat of hurricane conditions to land areas 1650is diminishing significantly, this will be the last set of key 1651messages unless the threat increases. 1652 1653 1654FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1655 1656INIT 02/2100Z 24.1N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 1657 12H 03/0600Z 25.1N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 1658 24H 03/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 1659 36H 04/0600Z 29.2N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 1660 48H 04/1800Z 31.7N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 1661 72H 05/1800Z 36.5N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 1662 96H 06/1800Z 40.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 1663120H 07/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1664 1665$$ 1666Forecaster Beven 1667 1668 1669 1670------------=_1443819365-20695-989 1671Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1672Content-Disposition: inline 1673Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1674 1675= = = == = = 1676WTNT41 KNHC 030300 1677TCDAT1 1678 1679HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 1680NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 16811100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 1682 1683Fixes from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate the 1684core of Joaquin has gradually begun to move away from the 1685central Bahamas. There were a couple of SFMR winds earlier which 1686suggested that the winds could be 115 kt in the southeastern 1687eyewall, but the cloud pattern has deteriorated since these winds 1688were measured. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 110 kt. 1689The eye was over San Salvador Island for several hours where the 1690pressure dropped to near 944 mb. The Director of the Meteorological 1691Service of the Bahamas reported to NHC that there was considerable 1692damage on some islands of the central Bahamas. Joaquin could 1693fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours, but given 1694that the shear is expected to increase, the NHC forecast calls 1695for very gradual weakening. Joaquin is anticipated to lose 1696tropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period. 1697 1698Joaquin has recurved and is now moving toward the northeast or 040 1699degrees at 9 kt. Joaquin is embedded within the southwesterly flow 1700between a deepening trough over the eastern Unites States and a 1701a weakening subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. As the trough 1702swings eastward, Joaquin will become fully embedded within the 1703mid-latitude westerly flow. This flow pattern will steer Joaquin to 1704the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. The 1705multi-model consensus has shifted eastward tonight, and consequently 1706the NHC forecast was also shifted eastward a little. However, the 1707NHC forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope, 1708and additional eastward adjustments of the track could be necessary. 1709 1710 1711FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1712 1713INIT 03/0300Z 24.7N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 1714 12H 03/1200Z 25.7N 72.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 1715 24H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 1716 36H 04/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 1717 48H 05/0000Z 33.0N 67.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 1718 72H 06/0000Z 37.0N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 1719 96H 07/0000Z 41.5N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 1720120H 08/0000Z 46.5N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1721 1722$$ 1723Forecaster Avila 1724 1725 1726 1727------------=_1443841251-20695-1123 1728Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1729Content-Disposition: inline 1730Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1731 1732= = = == = = 1733WTNT41 KNHC 030840 1734TCDAT1 1735 1736HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 1737NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1738500 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 1739 1740The eye of Joaquin has been intermittently seen in infrared 1741imagery overnight. Overall, the convective pattern is similar 1742to what it was when the previous aircraft indicated the intensity 1743was around 110 kt, so that will remain the intensity for this 1744advisory. Another aircraft will be investigating Joaquin later this 1745morning. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with 1746the cyclone expected to slowly weaken in the first 24 hours followed 1747by steadier weakening due to increasing shear and cooler waters. 1748Late in the period, Joaquin will slowly weaken as it undergoes 1749extratropical transition. The new NHC intensity forecast is an 1750update of the previous one and is close to the SHIPS model until 1751extratropical transition. 1752 1753The initial motion is 045/11, and Joaquin should continue to 1754accelerate northeastward today in the deep-layer southwesterly flow 1755between a deep trough over the southeastern U.S. and the Atlantic 1756subtropical ridge. The cross-track spread in the guidance increases 1757on days 2 and 3 due to differences in how much Joaquin is tugged to 1758the left by an upper-low passing to its north and northwest before 1759the cyclone accelerates into the westerlies over the north Atlantic. 1760The ECMWF has shifted left this cycle and is now along the left edge 1761of the guidance, while the GFS continues to shift east with a track 1762closer to Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours. The net change in the guidance 1763envelope and the consensus aids is a slight shift to the east, and 1764the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The NHC 1765track now lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. Further 1766adjustments to the forecast track may be needed later today, and a 1767Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm warning continue for Bermuda. 1768 1769FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1770 1771INIT 03/0900Z 25.2N 73.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 1772 12H 03/1800Z 26.7N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 1773 24H 04/0600Z 29.2N 69.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 1774 36H 04/1800Z 31.8N 67.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 1775 48H 05/0600Z 34.1N 66.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 1776 72H 06/0600Z 38.0N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 1777 96H 07/0600Z 42.5N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 1778120H 08/0600Z 47.0N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1779 1780$$ 1781Forecaster Brennan 1782 1783 1784 1785------------=_1443861642-20695-1246 1786Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1787Content-Disposition: inline 1788Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1789 1790= = = == = = 1791WTNT41 KNHC 031442 1792TCDAT1 1793 1794HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 1795NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 17961100 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 1797 1798The satellite presentation has improved during the past 12 hours. 1799A distinct eye is clearly observed in conventional imagery, and it 1800is surrounded by very deep convection. A blend of subjective and 1801objective Dvorak estimates of 6.0 and 6.5 T-numbers, and a peak 1802flight-level wind of 128 kt at 700 mb reported by a reconnaissance 1803aircraft yields an initial intensity of 115 kt. The central 1804pressure has dropped to 936 mb in the last reconnaissance fix. 1805Despite the small increase in the initial intensity, the NHC 1806forecast, which is very close to the intensity model consensus, 1807calls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler 1808waters. By the end of the forecast period, Joaquin is expected to 1809have lost tropical characteristics. 1810 1811Reconnaissance and satellite fixes indicate that Joaquin is moving 1812toward the northeast or 050 degrees at an average speed of 12 kt. 1813The hurricane is currently embedded within the flow between a deep 1814eastward-moving trough over the southeastern United States and a 1815subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. As the trough over the 1816United States swings eastward, the hurricane will likely turn 1817more to the north-northeast with some increase in forward speed 1818during the next 12 to 24 hours. Then, as the trough weakens, the 1819hurricane could slow down while moving west of Bermuda during late 1820Sunday. After that time, Joaquin is expected to become fully 1821embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate eastward 1822toward the northeast Atlantic. The NHC forecast is very similar to 1823the previous one, on top of the multi-model consensus, and in the 1824middle of the guidance envelope. 1825 1826Although the confidence in the track forecast has increased due to 1827the good agreement among models, a small deviation to the east of 1828the forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with 1829stronger winds closer to Bermuda. 1830 1831 1832FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1833 1834INIT 03/1500Z 25.8N 72.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 1835 12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 1836 24H 04/1200Z 30.7N 68.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 1837 36H 05/0000Z 33.0N 66.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 1838 48H 05/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 1839 72H 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 1840 96H 07/1200Z 43.5N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 1841120H 08/1200Z 48.5N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1842 1843$$ 1844Forecaster Avila 1845 1846 1847 1848------------=_1443883368-20695-1396 1849Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1850Content-Disposition: inline 1851Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1852 1853= = = == = = 1854WTNT41 KNHC 031550 1855TCDAT1 1856 1857HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 1858NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 18591200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 1860 1861This special advisory is to adjust the initial and forecast 1862intensity through 36 hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane 1863just penetrated the eye of Joaquin and measured 144 kt at 700 mb and 1864SFMR winds of around 135 kt. No change in the forecast track is 1865necessary. 1866 1867 1868FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1869 1870INIT 03/1600Z 26.0N 71.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 1871 12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 1872 24H 04/1200Z 30.7N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 1873 36H 05/0000Z 33.0N 66.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 1874 48H 05/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 1875 72H 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 1876 96H 07/1200Z 43.5N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 1877120H 08/1200Z 48.5N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1878 1879$$ 1880Forecaster Avila 1881 1882 1883 1884------------=_1443887464-20695-1446 1885Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1886Content-Disposition: inline 1887Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1888 1889= = = == = = 1890WTNT41 KNHC 032032 1891TCDAT1 1892 1893HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 1894NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1895500 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 1896 1897The cloud pattern is not as impressive as it was earlier today, 1898but the eye continues to be distinct. Both objective and subjective 1899T-numbers are decreasing slightly, and on this basis, the initial 1900intensity has been set at 130 kt. Another plane will investigate 1901Joaquin in a few hours. Despite the observed intensification this 1902morning, the NHC forecast still calls for gradual weakening due to 1903increasing shear and cooler waters. Joaquin is forecast to become a 1904strong extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period. 1905 1906Earlier reconnaissance data and current satellite fixes indicate 1907that Joaquin is moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 15 1908kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow between an 1909eastward-moving trough over southeastern United States and a 1910weakening subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Joaquin is 1911forecast to turn more to the north-northeast as the trough swings 1912eastward. Then, in about 3 days, the hurricane will be fully 1913embedded in the mid-latitude flow and will turn to the northeast 1914with an increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is very similar 1915to the previous one, primarily during the first 24 to 36 hours, and 1916is on top of the multi-model consensus and the consensus of the 1917ECMWF and the GFS models. 1918 1919Although the confidence in the track forecast is quite high due to 1920the good model agreement, a small deviation to the east of the 1921forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with stronger 1922winds to Bermuda. 1923 1924 1925FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1926 1927INIT 03/2100Z 27.0N 70.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 1928 12H 04/0600Z 29.0N 68.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 1929 24H 04/1800Z 31.5N 67.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 1930 36H 05/0600Z 33.7N 66.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 1931 48H 05/1800Z 36.0N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 1932 72H 06/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 1933 96H 07/1800Z 45.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1934120H 08/1800Z 50.0N 25.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1935 1936$$ 1937Forecaster Avila 1938 1939 1940 1941------------=_1443904342-20695-1578 1942Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 1943Content-Disposition: inline 1944Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 1945 1946= = = == = = 1947WTNT41 KNHC 040252 1948TCDAT1 1949 1950HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 1951NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 19521100 PM AST SAT OCT 03 2015 1953 1954While the cloud pattern has deteriorated a little this evening, 1955reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 1956indicate that Joaquin is still a Category 4 hurricane. The 1957aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 131 kt southeast of 1958the center along with a central pressure near 944 mb. Surface wind 1959estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer were as 1960high as 126 kt, but it is uncertain how reliable these are. Based 1961mainly on the flight-level winds, the initial intensity is decreased 1962to 115 kt. The aircraft also reports that the size of the 50 kt and 196364 kt wind radii have expanded in the southeastern quadrant. 1964 1965Joaquin has moved a little to the right for the past several hours 1966and the initial motion is now 050/17. Water vapor imagery shows a 1967mid- to upper-level low near 34N 71W and a mid- to upper-level 1968ridge east of 60W between 25N and 40N. Joaquin is expected to turn 1969north-northeastward between these features during the next 12 hours, 1970with this motion continuing through about 48 hours. After that 1971time, the tropical cyclone is expected to recurve northeastward into 1972the westerlies and accelerate. The forecast track, which has been 1973shifted about 30 n mi eastward from the previous track, lies near 1974the center of the tightly clustered track guidance models. 1975 1976The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Joaquin should 1977weaken during the forecast period as it encounters episodes of 1978moderate to strong vertical wind shear. However, it is likely to 1979be a Category 2 hurricane in 24-36 hours at the time of closest 1980approach to Bermuda. Extratropical transition should begin around 198172 hours and be complete by 96 hours, with the winds decreasing 1982below hurricane force during the transition. The new intensity 1983forecast is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the 1984upper edge of the intensity guidance. 1985 1986The combination of the shift in the forecast track and the expansion 1987of the hurricane-force winds requires a hurricane warning for 1988Bermuda at this time. 1989 1990 1991FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 1992 1993INIT 04/0300Z 28.0N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 1994 12H 04/1200Z 29.9N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 1995 24H 05/0000Z 32.3N 66.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 1996 36H 05/1200Z 34.3N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 1997 48H 06/0000Z 36.4N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 1998 72H 07/0000Z 41.0N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 1999 96H 08/0000Z 45.5N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2000120H 09/0000Z 50.5N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2001 2002$$ 2003Forecaster Beven 2004 2005 2006 2007------------=_1443927161-20695-1750 2008Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2009Content-Disposition: inline 2010Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2011 2012= = = == = = 2013WTNT41 KNHC 040843 2014TCDAT1 2015 2016HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 2017NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2018500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 2019 2020The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to gradually deteriorate 2021overnight with most of the deep convection now located over the 2022eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The earlier 2023reconnaissance aircraft mission reported peak 700-mb flight-level 2024winds of 125 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 94 kt during its last 2025pass through the southeastern portion of eyewall just before 0500 2026UTC. Dropsonde and SFMR data suggest that the flight-level winds 2027are not mixing down as efficiently as before, and the initial 2028intensity is lowered to 105 kt, which is a blend of the various 2029reconnaissance wind data. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane 2030Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm and should 2031provide a better assessment of Joaquin's intensity this morning. 2032 2033Recent center fixes indicate that the motion of Joaquin has started 2034to bend toward the north-northeast, but the longer term motion is 2035still northeastward or 040/17 kt. The hurricane should turn 2036north-northeastward this morning, and pass near Bermuda this 2037afternoon as it moves between a large mid- to upper-level low to 2038its west and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. After 2039passing the Bermuda Joaquin is expected to turn northeastward, then 2040east-northeastward after 48 hours when it reaches the mid-latitude 2041westerlies. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous 2042advisory and it remains near the center of the tightly cluster 2043guidance models. 2044 2045Moderate to strong southwesterly shear is expected to cause some 2046weakening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Joaquin is forecast to 2047remain a strong hurricane while it passes near or over Bermuda later 2048today. Gradual weakening should continue after 24 hours, as the 2049hurricane encounters cooler waters and remains within an environment 2050of moderate shear. Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical 2051cyclone over the North Atlantic in a little more than 72 hours. 2052The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus 2053through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction 2054Center at 96 and 120 h when the cyclone will be post-tropical. 2055 2056 2057FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2058 2059INIT 04/0900Z 29.7N 67.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 2060 12H 04/1800Z 31.6N 66.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 2061 24H 05/0600Z 33.7N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 2062 36H 05/1800Z 35.5N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 2063 48H 06/0600Z 37.6N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 2064 72H 07/0600Z 41.8N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 2065 96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2066120H 09/0600Z 50.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2067 2068$$ 2069Forecaster Brown 2070 2071 2072 2073------------=_1443948227-20695-1912 2074Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2075Content-Disposition: inline 2076Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2077 2078= = = == = = 2079WTNT41 KNHC 041452 2080TCDAT1 2081 2082HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 2083NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 20841100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 2085 2086The overall cloud pattern of Joaquin has changed little since the 2087previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft 2088has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt and SFMR 2089surface wind values of 90 kt during its mission so far this morning, 2090so the initial intensity has been decreased to 95 kt for this 2091advisory. A ragged eye feature is just becoming apparent on 2092the Bermuda radar, with strong inner-core rain bands currently 2093located less than 50 nmi southwest of the island. 2094 2095Recon center fixes indicate that Joaquin has made the expected turn 2096toward the north-northeast, and is now moving 030/15 kt. Joaquin is 2097forecast to move around the western portion of a modest mid-level 2098ridge to its east and ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer low 2099located over the southeastern United States. This is expected to 2100result in the hurricane moving toward the north-northeast today and 2101tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the 2102short term forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to pass 2103about 60 nmi west and northwest of Bermuda during the next 12-24 2104hours. By days 2-5, Joaquin is forecast to accelerate to the 2105east-northeast as the cyclone gets caught up in the fast 2106mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is essentially 2107just an update of the previous advisory track, albeit slightly 2108slower, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model 2109guidance. 2110 2111Excluding a slight respite this afternoon, the vertical wind shear 2112is forecast to increase during the next two days, with the mid-level 2113environment expected to dry out with humidity values decreasing to 2114around 50 percent. These less favorable conditions should result in 2115gradual weakening for the next 48 hours or so, followed by more 2116significant weakening on days 3-5 when Joaquin is expected to become 2117an extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic where SSTs are 211820C-24C and vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. Extratropical 2119transition is forecast to occur by 96 hours, but it is possible that 2120it could sooner by around 72 hours as per guidance from the SHIPS 2121and LGEM statistical-dynamical models, and the EMCWF model. The 2122intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the 2123consensus model IVCN through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from 2124the Ocean Prediction Center at 96 h and 120 h when the cyclone is 2125expected to be an extratropical low. 2126 2127FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2128 2129INIT 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 2130 12H 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 2131 24H 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 2132 36H 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 2133 48H 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 2134 72H 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 2135 96H 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2136120H 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2137 2138$$ 2139Forecaster Stewart 2140 2141 2142 2143------------=_1443970369-20695-2035 2144Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2145Content-Disposition: inline 2146Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2147 2148= = = == = = 2149WTNT41 KNHC 042104 2150TCDAT1 2151 2152HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 2153NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2154500 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 2155 2156The satellite cloud pattern of Joaquin, especially the inner-core 2157convection, has continued to erode during the past several hours. 2158The Bermuda radar also indicates a very ragged-looking banded eye 2159pattern. The initial intensity has been decreased to 85 kt for this 2160advisory based on some dropsonde data from a WB-57 research 2161aircraft that is part of the NASA Tropical Cyclone Intensity 2162Experiment. 2163 2164Joaquin is moving to the north-northeast at 015/12 kt. There is no 2165significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. 2166Joaquin is expected to move toward the north-northeast tonight and 2167and turn toward the northeast on Monday as the cyclone moves around 2168the western periphery of a ridge located to its east. By days 2-5, 2169the hurricane should accelerate to the east-northeast as the cyclone 2170moves into the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track 2171forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory 2172track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model 2173guidance envelope. 2174 2175Joaquin should continue to steadily weaken during the next 48 hours 2176or so, followed by transition to an extratropical cyclone on 2177days 3-5 as the cyclone moves over the cold waters of the far north 2178Atlantic where the vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. The 2179intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the 2180consensus model IVCN through 48 hours, and is based on guidance from 2181the Ocean Prediction Center for days 3-5 when the cyclone is 2182forecast to be an extratropical low. 2183 2184FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2185 2186INIT 04/2100Z 32.2N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 2187 12H 05/0600Z 33.8N 65.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 2188 24H 05/1800Z 35.6N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 2189 36H 06/0600Z 37.3N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 2190 48H 06/1800Z 39.2N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 2191 72H 07/1800Z 42.5N 42.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2192 96H 08/1800Z 46.1N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2193120H 09/1800Z 49.7N 18.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2194 2195$$ 2196Forecaster Stewart 2197 2198 2199 2200------------=_1443992692-20695-2192 2201Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2202Content-Disposition: inline 2203Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2204 2205= = = == = = 2206WTNT41 KNHC 050233 2207TCDAT1 2208 2209HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 2210NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 22111100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 2212 2213The coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with the 2214hurricane have diminished. Microwave imagery indicates that the 2215inner core has become less distinct, although the convective 2216banding features remain well defined. An Air Force Reserve 2217Unit Hurricane Hunter plane reported maximum 700 mb flight-level 2218winds of 87 kt over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. 2219This corresponds to an intensity of about 75 kt. Only slight cooling 2220of waters along the path of the cyclone is indicated over the next 2221couple of days, since Joaquin will be moving along the Gulf Stream. 2222Dynamical guidance does not show the vertical shear becoming strong 2223until about 48 hours. Slow weakening is predicted for the next 2224couple of days, in general agreement with the SHIPS guidance. By 72 2225hours the sea surface temperatures should cool significantly, and 2226the global models depict the system as embedded within a baroclinic 2227zone. Therefore the forecast shows Joaquin becoming extratropical 2228by that time. 2229 2230The initial motion continues to be north-northeastward, or 025/11 2231kt. A short wave ridge ahead of the hurricane appears to have 2232caused some temporary slowing of the forward motion. In a day or 2233two, the ridge flattens out, and the cyclone should begin to 2234accelerate within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official 2235forecast through 48 hours is close to the multi-model consensus. 2236The track, intensity, and wind radii for 72 hours and beyond are 2237based on the consensus as well as guidance from the Ocean Prediction 2238Center. 2239 2240Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for at 2241least the next several hours, with possible winds to hurricane 2242force in squalls especially at elevated locations. 2243 2244FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2245 2246INIT 05/0300Z 33.1N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 2247 12H 05/1200Z 34.5N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 2248 24H 06/0000Z 36.2N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 2249 36H 06/1200Z 37.8N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 2250 48H 07/0000Z 39.5N 54.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 2251 72H 08/0000Z 42.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2252 96H 09/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2253120H 10/0000Z 47.0N 16.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2254 2255$$ 2256Forecaster Pasch 2257 2258 2259 2260------------=_1444012399-20695-2302 2261Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2262Content-Disposition: inline 2263Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2264 2265= = = == = = 2266WTNT41 KNHC 050854 2267TCDAT1 2268 2269HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 2270NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2271500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 2272 2273The weakening that Joaquin has experienced during the past day or 2274so appears to have temporarily stopped overnight. Deep convection 2275has increased near the center, and an eye has intermittently been 2276seen infrared satellite pictures. The initial wind speed of 75 kt 2277is based on recent Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. 2278Only a slight reduction in strength is expected during the next day 2279or so while Joaquin remains within an area of light to moderate 2280vertical wind shear and over sea surface temperatures of around 27C. 2281After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters 2282should cause gradual weakening. Joaquin is expected to interact with 2283a baroclinic zone in a couple of days and become an extratropical 2284cyclone within 72 hours. The global models slowly weaken the 2285extratropical low as it moves eastward over the central and eastern 2286Atlantic later this week. 2287 2288The initial motion estimate is 025/11 kt. Joaquin should turn 2289northeastward and move at a slightly faster forward speed by 2290tonight as a ridge to the northeast of the hurricane weakens. 2291Joaquin should become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies 2292in 36 to 48 hours and accelerate east-northeastward. The track 2293guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC 2294forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. The track 2295of the extratropical low is a blend of the previous advisory and 2296guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. 2297 2298The tropical storm force wind radii have been expanded outward 2299based on earlier ASCAT data. Tropical storm conditions are likely 2300to continue on Bermuda for a few more hours. 2301 2302 2303FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2304 2305INIT 05/0900Z 34.1N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 2306 12H 05/1800Z 35.4N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 2307 24H 06/0600Z 37.1N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 2308 36H 06/1800Z 38.6N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 2309 48H 07/0600Z 39.9N 50.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 2310 72H 08/0600Z 42.0N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2311 96H 09/0600Z 43.5N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2312120H 10/0600Z 45.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2313 2314$$ 2315Forecaster Brown 2316 2317 2318 2319------------=_1444035289-20695-2389 2320Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2321Content-Disposition: inline 2322Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2323 2324= = = == = = 2325WTNT41 KNHC 051439 2326TCDAT1 2327 2328HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 2329NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 23301100 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 2331 2332Joaquin's cloud pattern and overall structure has remained intact 2333based on conventional and microwave satellite data. Recent SSMIS 2334and SSMI microwave passes showed a well-defined small eye still 2335exists, which is also indicated in reflectivity data from the 2336Bermuda Doppler radar. As a result, the intensity of Joaquin is 2337being maintained at 75 kt, which is supported by Dvorak satellite 2338current intensity estimates of T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB. 2339 2340The initial motion estimate is 030/11 kt. The forecast track and 2341reasoning basically remain unchanged. Joaquin is expected to turn 2342northeastward today and begin moving at a slightly faster forward 2343speed tonight and Tuesday as the hurricane rounds the northwestern 2344periphery of a weakening ridge and begins to feel the effects of the 2345faster flow in the mid-latitude westerlies. By 36 hours, Joaquin 2346should begin to accelerate east-northeastward at a faster forward 2347speed of more than 25 kt. The official forecast track is essentially 2348just an extension of the previous advisory track guidance and lies 2349close to the consensus models TCVA and GFEX through 48 hours. After 2350that time, the extratropical forecast track is based on guidance 2351provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. 2352 2353Deep convection has persisted and even expanded somewhat since the 2354previous advisory, with a small area of cloud tops colder than -70C 2355having developed just west of the center. With the vertical wind 2356shear expected to remain between 10 to 15 kt for the next 24 hours 2357or so, only slight weakening is forecast. By 48 hours and beyond, 2358however, westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to 2359more than 30 kt when the cyclone will be moving over SSTs less than 236023C. The result should be steady weakening and a transition to a 2361large and expanding extratropical low pressure system over the north 2362Atlantic. Extratropical transition could occur sooner if Joaquin 2363interacts or merges with a frontal system currently located a few 2364hundred n mi north of the hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is 2365similar to the previous advisory and follows the intensity consensus 2366model IVCN through 48 hours, and is based on guidance provided by 2367the Ocean Prediction Center for days 3-5. 2368 2369The tropical storm force wind radii were expanded outward slightly 2370in the southwestern quadrant based on surface observation and radar 2371data from Bermuda. 2372 2373FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2374 2375INIT 05/1500Z 35.0N 64.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 2376 12H 06/0000Z 36.3N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 2377 24H 06/1200Z 38.0N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 2378 36H 07/0000Z 39.3N 54.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 2379 48H 07/1200Z 40.5N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2380 72H 08/1200Z 42.5N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2381 96H 09/1200Z 44.0N 21.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2382120H 10/1200Z 45.1N 15.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2383 2384$$ 2385Forecaster Stewart 2386 2387 2388 2389------------=_1444056002-20695-2492 2390Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2391Content-Disposition: inline 2392Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2393 2394= = = == = = 2395WTNT41 KNHC 052050 2396TCDAT1 2397 2398HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 2399NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2400500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 2401 2402Joaquin's cloud pattern has actually improved somewhat since the 2403previous advisory with a cloud-filled eye having briefly appeared 2404in visible satellite imagery. Also, the eye has remained distinct 2405on the Bermuda radar at an altitude above 32,000 feet. Satellite 2406intensity estimates are T4.5/77 kt from SAB, T4.3/72 kt from the 2407NHC AODT technique, and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB. Based on the distinct 2408eye feature noted in visible satellite imagery and radar data, the 2409intensity is being maintained at 75 kt for this advisory. This 2410intensity is also supported by dropsonde data from the NASA WB-57 2411aircraft, which has been conducting research in Joaquin for the 2412Office of Naval Operation's Tropical Cyclone Intensity experiment. 2413 2414The initial motion estimate is 030/10 kt. Joaquin is rounding the 2415northwestern periphery of a weak ridge located to its southeast, 2416and will be entering the faster mid-latitude westerlies by Tuesday 2417morning. The result should be a gradual turn toward the northeast 2418accompanied by a modest increase in forward speed tonight and 2419Tuesday, followed by more significant acceleration toward the 2420east-northeast at forward speeds of near 30 kt by Wednesday. The 2421official forecast track is a tad to the left of the previous 2422advisory track, and basically lies down the middle of the tightly 2423packed guidance envelope through 36 hours. At 48-120 hours, the 2424extratropical forecast track is based on guidance provided by the 2425NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. 2426 2427The deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain at less 2428than 20 kt for the next 24 hours or so, which should allow for 2429Joaquin to only slightly weaken. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly 2430vertical wind shear is forecast by the global and regional models to 2431increase to more than 30 kt when Joaquin will be moving over sub-24C 2432sea-surface temperatures. The expected result should be steady 2433weakening and a transition to a large and expanding extratropical 2434low pressure system over the much cooler waters of the north 2435Atlantic by 48 hours. However, the GFS and ECMWF models are 2436suggesting that Joaquin could get a baroclinic boost as it interacts 2437with a frontal system and strong jetstream and, as a result, the 2438intensity forecast does not show the typical rapid decay rate of a 2439tropical cyclone moving over 17C-20C SSTs on days 3-5. The NHC 2440intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows 2441the intensity consensus model IVCN through 36 hours, and then is 2442based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center for the 244348-120 hour period. 2444 2445FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2446 2447INIT 05/2100Z 35.8N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 2448 12H 06/0600Z 37.1N 61.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 2449 24H 06/1800Z 38.7N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 2450 36H 07/0600Z 40.0N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 2451 48H 07/1800Z 41.4N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2452 72H 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2453 96H 09/1800Z 45.6N 20.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2454120H 10/1800Z 48.0N 14.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2455 2456$$ 2457Forecaster Stewart 2458 2459 2460 2461------------=_1444078265-20695-2647 2462Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2463Content-Disposition: inline 2464Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2465 2466= = = == = = 2467WTNT41 KNHC 060252 2468TCDAT1 2469 2470HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 2471NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 24721100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 2473 2474While Joaquin's eye is no longer present in the shortwave infrared 2475imagery from the GOES-East geostationary satellite this evening, a 2476distinct eye has been visible in the microwave imagery from the 2477SSMIS polar orbiting satellite passes at 2231Z and 2316Z. 2478There is even a suggestion of a concentric eyewall at about a 50 nm 2479radius. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB remain 2480at 4.5, supporting continuing with an intensity of 75 kt. The wind 2481radii were expanded slightly based upon a CIRA AMSU wind radii 2482analysis from 2104Z. 2483 2484Joaquin is currently embedded in moderate southwesterly vertical 2485shear with somewhat dry mid-tropospheric air, and is traversing 2486over SSTs near 27C. During the next day, the shear picks up 2487substantially. However, with Joaquin moving in the same direction 2488as the shear vector, the negative impact of the shear is lessened as 2489indicated in the SHIPS output. Within two days, Joaquin will move 2490north of the Gulf Stream and will encounter very cold waters while 2491the shear increases even more. This would typically lead toward a 2492quick decay of a tropical cyclone, but Joaquin is expected to 2493transform into an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours. The 2494baroclinic processes should allow Joaquin instead to slowly decay. 2495The intensity forecast is based upon the tightly clustered IVCN 2496multi-model consensus through 36 hours, and then is based on 2497guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center for the 48-120 hour 2498period. 2499 2500The initial motion of Joaquin is 35 deg/12 kt, fairly confidently 2501known because of the microwave fixes. Joaquin is being swept up in 2502the mid-latitude westerlies and should begin accelerating off toward 2503the east-northeast during the next two to three days. The track 2504prediction is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model 2505consensus through 36 hours, and then is based on guidance provided 2506by the Ocean Prediction Center for the 48-120 hour period. 2507 2508FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2509 2510INIT 06/0300Z 36.8N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 2511 12H 06/1200Z 38.1N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 2512 24H 07/0000Z 39.6N 54.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 2513 36H 07/1200Z 41.0N 47.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 2514 48H 08/0000Z 42.0N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2515 72H 09/0000Z 45.0N 23.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2516 96H 10/0000Z 46.0N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2517120H 11/0000Z 48.0N 12.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2518 2519$$ 2520Forecaster Landsea 2521 2522 2523 2524------------=_1444099956-20695-2752 2525Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2526Content-Disposition: inline 2527Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2528 2529= = = == = = 2530WTNT41 KNHC 060837 2531TCDAT1 2532 2533HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 2534NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2535500 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 2536 2537There has been little change in the structure of Joaquin during 2538the past few hours. An eye has occasionally appeared in microwave 2539imagery, and recent AMSR-2 and GPM data continue to hint at the 2540presence of concentric eyewalls. The initial intensity remains 75 2541kt based on a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and continuity 2542from the previous advisory. The 34 and 50 kt wind radii were 2543adjusted slightly based on recent ASCAT data. 2544 2545The initial motion is now 050/15. Joaquin is entering the 2546westerlies, and the track guidance is in good agreement that the 2547cyclone should move rapidly east-northeastward for the next three 2548days or so. After that time, the guidance agrees on a slower 2549motion, but there there is some spread between the GFS/UKMET which 2550call for a northward turn and the ECMWF which turns the system 2551southeastward. This part of the forecast lies a little north of the 2552previous forecast near the average of the GFS and ECMWF models. 2553 2554The forecast track carries Joaquin over colder sea surface 2555temperatures and close to a baroclinic zone in about 24 hours. 2556This combination should cause the cyclone to weaken and begin 2557extratropical transition. Transition should be complete between 36 2558and 48 hours, with Joaquin expected to weaken below hurricane 2559strength by that time. The global models are in good agreement 2560that Joaquin will produce gale- to storm-force winds as an 2561extratropical low during the 48-120 hour period. The new intensity 2562forecast is an update of the previous forecast, with the 2563extratropical portion based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction 2564Center. 2565 2566 2567FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2568 2569INIT 06/0900Z 37.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 2570 12H 06/1800Z 38.8N 57.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 2571 24H 07/0600Z 40.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 2572 36H 07/1800Z 41.6N 43.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 2573 48H 08/0600Z 42.8N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2574 72H 09/0600Z 45.5N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2575 96H 10/0600Z 47.5N 16.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2576120H 11/0600Z 51.0N 12.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2577 2578$$ 2579Forecaster Beven 2580 2581 2582 2583------------=_1444120651-20695-2817 2584Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2585Content-Disposition: inline 2586Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2587 2588= = = == = = 2589WTNT41 KNHC 061443 2590TCDAT1 2591 2592HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 2593NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 25941100 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 2595 2596Joaquin is in a state of gradual decay. Although an eye feature is 2597still occasionally visible, there has been some erosion of the 2598inner-core deep convection. A series of microwaves images this 2599morning indicate some eastward tilt of the vortex with height, and 2600there is evidence of dry air entrainment into the inner core. Dvorak 2601intensity estimates are slowly decreasing, and the initial wind 2602speed is reduced to 70 kt. An increase in southwesterly shear and 2603cooler waters along Joaquin's track should cause further weakening 2604during the next few days. Cooler and drier air behind a low-level 2605baroclinic zone currently draped to the north of the cyclone should 2606gradually be advected into Joaquin's circulation during the next 24 2607to 48 hours, and extratropical transition is expected to be complete 2608in about 36 hours. The new intensity forecast is near the 2609multi-model consensus through 36 hours and then a bit above that 2610after that time. 2611 2612Recent fixes indicate that Joaquin has is accelerating 2613northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/16. The 2614cyclone is expected to further accelerate toward the east-northeast 2615as it becomes fully embedded in a belt of nearly zonal middle- to 2616upper-tropospheric flow during the next few days. After 2617extratropical transition, Joaquin should experience a significant 2618deceleration when it approaches the British Isles. The track 2619guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, with somewhat 2620greater spread after that time. The new track forecast is about the 2621same as the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus for 2622the remainder of the forecast period. 2623 2624 2625FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2626 2627INIT 06/1500Z 38.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 2628 12H 07/0000Z 39.5N 55.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 2629 24H 07/1200Z 40.8N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 2630 36H 08/0000Z 42.0N 40.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 2631 48H 08/1200Z 43.3N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2632 72H 09/1200Z 46.2N 21.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2633 96H 10/1200Z 49.3N 14.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2634120H 11/1200Z 49.8N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2635 2636$$ 2637Forecaster Kimberlain 2638 2639 2640 2641------------=_1444142612-20695-2900 2642Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2643Content-Disposition: inline 2644Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2645 2646= = = == = = 2647WTNT41 KNHC 062039 2648TCDAT1 2649 2650HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 2651NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2652500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 2653 2654Joaquin continues to have a very impressive cloud pattern with an 2655intermittent eye on visible images. In fact, microwave data still 2656shows a distinct eye feature surrounded by convective bands. Dvorak 2657T-numbers have not changed today, and given the currently well- 2658organized cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 70 kt. 2659Both cold sea surface temperatures and strong shear should 2660cause Joaquin to begin losing tropical characteristics between 24 2661and 36 hours, and after that time, the hurricane is forecast to 2662become a strong extratropical cyclone. 2663 2664Joaquin is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and 2665is racing toward the east-northeast at about 26 kt. Track guidance 2666is tightly packed, showing Joaquin moving on the same general track 2667for the next few days with some increase in forward speed. However, 2668Joaquin should decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast 2669period. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model 2670consensus, and very near the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS. 2671 2672FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2673 2674INIT 06/2100Z 39.0N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 2675 12H 07/0600Z 40.4N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 2676 24H 07/1800Z 42.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 2677 36H 08/0600Z 43.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2678 48H 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2679 72H 09/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2680 96H 10/1800Z 48.0N 13.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2681120H 11/1800Z 49.0N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2682 2683$$ 2684Forecaster Avila 2685 2686 2687 2688------------=_1444164000-20695-3022 2689Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2690Content-Disposition: inline 2691Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2692 2693= = = == = = 2694WTNT41 KNHC 062136 2695TCDAT1 2696 2697HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37...CORRECTED 2698NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2699500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 2700 2701CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED TO 20 KT IN SECOND PARAGRAPH 2702 2703Joaquin continues to have a very impressive cloud pattern with an 2704intermittent eye on visible images. In fact, microwave data still 2705shows a distinct eye feature surrounded by convective bands. Dvorak 2706T-numbers have not changed today, and given the currently well- 2707organized cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 70 kt. 2708Both cold sea surface temperatures and strong shear should 2709cause Joaquin to begin losing tropical characteristics between 24 2710and 36 hours, and after that time, the hurricane is forecast to 2711become a strong extratropical cyclone. 2712 2713Joaquin is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and 2714is racing toward the east-northeast at about 20 kt. Track guidance 2715is tightly packed, showing Joaquin moving on the same general track 2716for the next few days with some increase in forward speed. However, 2717Joaquin should decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast 2718period. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model 2719consensus, and very near the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS. 2720 2721FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2722 2723INIT 06/2100Z 39.0N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 2724 12H 07/0600Z 40.4N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 2725 24H 07/1800Z 42.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 2726 36H 08/0600Z 43.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2727 48H 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2728 72H 09/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2729 96H 10/1800Z 48.0N 13.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2730120H 11/1800Z 49.0N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2731 2732$$ 2733Forecaster Avila 2734 2735 2736 2737------------=_1444167426-20695-3050 2738Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2739Content-Disposition: inline 2740Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2741 2742= = = == = = 2743WTNT41 KNHC 070255 2744TCDAT1 2745 2746HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 2747NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 27481100 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 2749 2750Until just a couple of hours ago, Joaquin continued to display 2751a tight inner core, with deep convection surrounding a 20 2752n mi diameter eye. The most recent geostationary infrared imagery 2753is finally showing that the convection is becoming asymmetric with 2754the 25 kt of tropospheric vertical shear adversely affecting the 2755cyclone. The intensity remains 70 kt, since both the SAB and TAFB 2756Dvorak Current Intensity values are unchanged. 2757 2758The hurricane is about to cross over the north wall of the Gulf 2759Stream and will be traversing very chilly 21-22C waters by tomorrow. 2760The combination of cold SSTs, dry air, and strong vertical shear 2761should cause the deep convection to either completely dislocate or 2762cease and the forecast calls for Joaquin to become a strong 2763post-tropical cyclone in about a day. The FSU Cyclone Phase Space 2764diagrams, based upon the global and regional models, suggest that 2765Joaquin will gradually become more frontal and extratropical 2766transition is anticipated by Thursday. Baroclinic forcing should 2767allow for only a gradual winding down as depicted by the models, and 2768dissipation is anticipated in about five days. 2769 2770Joaquin is moving toward the east-northeast at a rather quick pace 2771of 25 kt, as it is being advected along by the mid-latitude 2772westerlies. The system should accelerate east-northeastward for 2773about 36 hours, before slowing down in the eastern north Atlantic. 2774The track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered global and 2775regional models through 72 hours. By day four, the guidance becomes 2776divergent with some solutions turning northeastward toward 2777Ireland and Great Britain, but most turning east-southeastward 2778toward Portugal and Spain. This latter scenario is the basis for 2779the track forecast at day 4. 2780 2781The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 36 hours and 2782beyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction 2783Center. 2784 2785A last-minute-arriving ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated that 2786Joaquin continues to expand in size. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii 2787analyses and forecasts were adjusted accordingly. 2788 2789FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2790 2791INIT 07/0300Z 40.0N 53.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 2792 12H 07/1200Z 41.0N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 2793 24H 08/0000Z 42.1N 39.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 2794 36H 08/1200Z 43.4N 31.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2795 48H 09/0000Z 44.7N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2796 72H 10/0000Z 44.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2797 96H 11/0000Z 43.0N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2798120H 12/0000Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2799 2800$$ 2801Forecaster Landsea 2802 2803 2804 2805------------=_1444186572-20695-3139 2806Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2807Content-Disposition: inline 2808Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2809 2810= = = == = = 2811WTNT41 KNHC 070832 2812TCDAT1 2813 2814HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 2815NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2816500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 2817 2818The organization of Joaquin continues to slowly decrease, with the 2819central convection now present only in the northeastern semicircle. 2820Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 65 kt, and 2821that is the advisory intensity. 2822 2823Joaquin is now moving over colder water north of the Gulf Stream, 2824and the cyclone is gradually becoming embedded in a baroclinic zone. 2825This combination should cause continued weakening and eventual 2826extratropical transition. The current expectation is that the 2827central convection will dissipate before the cyclone develops 2828fronts, so the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become 2829post-tropical for about 12 hours before becoming extratropical. 2830The new intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening than 2831the previous forecast, and calls for Joaquin or its remnants to 2832dissipate by 120 hours. 2833 2834Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is 2835embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge. 2836This motion should continued for another 36 hours or so. After 2837that time, the guidance is now in better agreement that the cyclone 2838should turn decelerate and turn east-southeastward as it comes under 2839the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe. 2840The new forecast track is an update of the previous track. 2841 2842The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 24 hours and 2843beyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction 2844Center. 2845 2846 2847FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2848 2849INIT 07/0900Z 40.5N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 2850 12H 07/1800Z 41.4N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 2851 24H 08/0600Z 42.4N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 2852 36H 08/1800Z 43.3N 28.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2853 48H 09/0600Z 44.2N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2854 72H 10/0600Z 44.0N 16.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2855 96H 11/0600Z 43.0N 12.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2856120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED 2857 2858$$ 2859Forecaster Beven 2860 2861 2862 2863------------=_1444206787-20695-3192 2864Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2865Content-Disposition: inline 2866Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2867 2868= = = == = = 2869WTNT41 KNHC 071443 2870TCDAT1 2871 2872TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 2873NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 28741100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 2875 2876Satellite images indicate that Joaquin continues to slowly weaken. 2877The low-level center is now about half a degree west of the 2878mid-level circulation, with an area of deep convection noted. 2879Dvorak estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 288060 kt. 2881 2882A gradual spin-down of the cyclone is expected while Joaquin moves 2883over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream. Deep convection 2884should probably disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C, so 2885the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become post-tropical at 2886that time. The cyclone will likely become a more classic 2887extratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to 2888form near the center. The official intensity forecast is very close 2889to the previous one, and is in closest agreement with the GFS 2890forecast. 2891 2892Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is 2893embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge. 2894This motion should continue for another 24 hours or so. After 2895that time, the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone 2896should decelerate and turn east-southeastward due to it coming 2897under the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western 2898Europe. The official forecast is adjusted southward, and is near a 2899blend of the GFS and the ECMWF models. 2900 2901The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and 2902beyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean 2903Prediction Center. 2904 2905 2906FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2907 2908INIT 07/1500Z 41.0N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 2909 12H 08/0000Z 41.8N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 2910 24H 08/1200Z 42.6N 32.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 2911 36H 09/0000Z 43.5N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2912 48H 09/1200Z 44.2N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2913 72H 10/1200Z 43.5N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2914 96H 11/1200Z 42.5N 11.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2915120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED 2916 2917$$ 2918Forecaster Blake 2919 2920 2921 2922------------=_1444228985-20695-3272 2923Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2924Content-Disposition: inline 2925Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2926 2927= = = == = = 2928WTNT41 KNHC 072033 2929TCDAT1 2930 2931TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 2932NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2933500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 2934 2935Joaquin has begun its transition into an extratropical cyclone. 2936The cyclone's cloud pattern has become rather asymmetric, with the 2937center partially exposed on the west side of weakening deep 2938convection. In addition, cold air is wrapping into the western 2939periphery of the circulation, with a warm frontal band becoming 2940better defined well northeast of the center. Earlier ASCAT data 2941still showed a large area of 55 to 60 kt winds, so the initial wind 2942speed is held at 60 kt. 2943 2944The storm should gradually lose strength while it moves over 2945progressively colder waters north of the Gulf Stream. Deep 2946convection should disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C, 2947and Joaquin is expected to become post-tropical at that time. Global 2948models are in good agreement on the cyclone becoming a large 2949extratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to 2950form near the center. The official intensity forecast is basically 2951an update of the previous one, and remains in close agreement with 2952the GFS forecast. 2953 2954Joaquin is speeding eastward at 32 kt, embedded in strong westerly 2955flow north of the subtropical ridge, which should keep the cyclone 2956moving to the east or east-northeast at a slower forward speed for 2957another day or two. Thereafter, the cyclone should slow down even 2958more and turn east-southeastward due to it coming under the 2959influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe. 2960The guidance continues to migrate southward, and the official 2961forecast is moved in that direction, near a blend of the Florida 2962State Superensemble and the ECMWF models. 2963 2964The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and 2965beyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean 2966Prediction Center. 2967 2968 2969FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 2970 2971INIT 07/2100Z 41.5N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 2972 12H 08/0600Z 42.0N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 2973 24H 08/1800Z 42.7N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2974 36H 09/0600Z 43.6N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2975 48H 09/1800Z 43.8N 19.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2976 72H 10/1800Z 43.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2977 96H 11/1800Z 41.5N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2978120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED 2979 2980$$ 2981Forecaster Blake 2982 2983 2984 2985------------=_1444250022-20695-3360 2986Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" 2987Content-Disposition: inline 2988Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT 2989 2990= = = == = = 2991